SB Nation - Brian Wolfe

What was your least favorite Jay's game of the season?

Tom Dakers — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:32:04 -0000

We asked, yesterday, what your favorite game of the season was, so today we ask which was your least favorite? Which was the worst game, in your opinion, for the Jays?

There are many possibilities, if you weren't paying attention, we lost a number of games last year. Many in depressing fashion.

But for me one stands out in my memory as being particularly crushing. Back in the not so merry month of May, we had a 8 game losing streak going, we were in Baltimore and Roy Halladay was making the start. Halladay vs. the Orioles should have been the end of a losing streak. Should have. But not on May 27.

Final - 5.27.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H	E
Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	10	12	0
Baltimore Orioles	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	4	12	18	0
WP: Danys Baez (4 - 1) LP: Brian Wolfe (1 - 1)

Complete Coverage >

If you want to see the full box score it is here and my recap is here. Man was I pissed off at Cito.

Anyway you likely remember the game, we had a good, lively game thread. Through 7 innings life was good. Doc pitched well, but in the 7th it looked like he was tiring, he had thrown 103 pitches and we were up by 5 runs. A pretty safe time to pull the guy, you would think.

Cito called on Jesse Carlson, because, well he always calls Carlson first if we are ahead. Carlson had pitched 1.2 perfect innings the day before. Now my rule of thumb is if a reliever comes out for a second inning, he should get the next day off. More important than the number of pitches he has thrown is that he warmed up twice, once to come into the game and once to start the next inning. For me, that's enough to get him rest the next day. Cito....not so much. Cito picks the guys he likes in the bullpen and rides them. He is not the only manager to do this, Joe Torre was very successful in New York doing the same thing, to even a greater degree.

So Carlson's in, the Orioles have 3 lefties in the next 4 batters in the order and I'm thinking that for good or bad, Carlson will get the next 4 batters and someone else will come in. Even though, usual for a lefty, Carlson pitched better against righties last year. I'm not sure if Cito knew that or if he just chalked it up to small sample size. Anyway, single, single, walk and a pinch hitter. Carlson's got nothing. I'm sure Cito will go get him. Nope. Strikeout, yay, but still go get him. Hit batter. Go get him Cito. Nope. Single. Bases loaded, two runs in, Cito finally moves to get Carlson.

Downs comes in and isn't any better, 2 singles later and a great throw out at the plate and we are tied. We get through the 9th and 10th with good pitching from Jason Frasor. In the top of the 11th Aaron Hill hits a two run homer. Life is good again.

Bottom of the 11th, we just have to stop the Orioles from scoring 2 runs. In comes everyone's favorite $10 million per season closer B.J. Ryan (JP Riccardi folks, let's give him a hand). Ryan faces two lefties, gets one. Cito has Brian Wolfe and Brandon League up in the pen. Now anyone with even a passing interest in the Jays knows that League is a much better pitcher than Wolfe. Throw out the numbers and watch the two guys pitch. You can see it easy. Don't watch, listen to the sound the ball makes hitting the catcher's glove. If one of the two of them is coming into a game in an important moment, it has to be League, right? Wrong.

This is how I put it in the game recap:

Now League has been plenty wild at times this year, but he is a good reliever. Wolfe is ok I guess on occasion. Cito brings in Wolfe. How he decides Wolfe is a better choice than League I have no clue. Tying run at the plate. If League is wild we are 5 walks from a loss.

Wolfe gives up 2 singles and a homer and I'm going through the knife drawer looking for one sharp enough to cut my wrist. Luckily having the foresight of a long time Jay's fan, I replace all the knives with plastic spoons at the start of a season now. But I give it the old college try with a plastic spoon.

Brian Wolfe got the Suckage award with the highest negative WPA (I guess that should be lowest) I saw all year, -.889.

That was the start of a chain of bad events. Doc's next start he threw 133 pitches in a complete game win, Cito being afraid to pull him. The next start, another complete game. The next start he was injured. Cause and effect? We don't know but 133 pitches is a lot for anyone to throw, even Doc.

The next game we won against the Red Sox, ending our losing streak.

Are You Loving This Yet? Tigers 6, Blue Jays 5

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Aubrey Huff celebrates perhaps the biggest home run of his career in the Detroit Tigers' dugout, following his game-tying, three-run shot in the bottom of the ninth Monday night.

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No matter how this season ultimately ends for the Detroit Tigers, you can't say it wasn't a fun ride.

Sure, there have been some bad stretches, the kind that make you wonder whether you should really spend so much time watching baseball. Last night's sixth inning was one of them. Justin Verlander was nearly untouchable through his first five innings, giving up just two hits. But then something happened. Maybe Verlander relaxed with a 2-0 lead. Maybe the Blue Jays lineup noticed something they could capitalize on.

Whatever the reason, Verlander suddenly began pitching batting practice, and Toronto hit everything he threw all over the field - and beyond. The first five batters in the inning reached base. Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion hit home runs. The Jays knocked out six hits and scored five runs. Verlander was shell-shocked. Everyone watching the game was stunned.

And suddenly, what looked like a hard-fought win in the making became a sure loss. Because the Tigers had only managed two runs by that point, both driven in by Ryan Raburn. How could they score another four now?

But this season has brought plenty of good times, too. Oh, so good. Last night's ninth and tenth innings were among them.

The Tigers needed a break, an opening to slip through. And Marco Scutaro gave it to them when he missed Curtis Granderson's grounder on a tough hop. Pinch-hitter Alex Avila followed with a single. (Doesn't something good seem to happen when this kid is at the plate?)

Then Jim Leyland reached into his goody bag and pulled out Aubrey Huff to pinch-hit. It was kind of a curious move, with Carlos Guillen also on the bench. But Jason Frasor fell behind after throwing his first two pitches high and outside. So he had to come in with a strike. Oh, he came in, all right. Right down the middle.

Huff attacked the pitch. Is there any other way to say it? He swung like he was trying to break something. And when he connected, Huff knew he crushed it. The picturesque follow-through, the brief pose. We've all seen it before (but from other hitters). How far did that ball go? 20 rows behind the right-field fence?

(And did we mention it began raining at this time? Pretty hard, actually. Pardon me for getting flowery, but it was like the sudden downpour washed away the previous eight innings.)

Take issue with Huff's bat flip, if you'd like. Yeah, it was a showboat move. And if it had been a guy from the other team, a lot of us would be ticked off at him today. But isn't there something to be said for getting caught up in the moment? Especially when you've been waiting to pull your share in this pennant race? This is why the Tigers brought Huff to Detroit. And he knew it.

Act like you've been there before? Isn't that kind of the point? Huff hadn't been.

But that home run tied the game. The Tigers still had to win it. But they were rolling downhill, and the Jays just had to get out of the way. In the tenth, Brian Wolfe couldn't keep it in the strike zone. He struck out Marcus Thames to lead off the inning, but needed seven pitches to do it. Brandon Inge walked on six pitches. Curtis Granderson followed him on base in five pitches. That brought up Avila. Remember what we said about good things happening when he's at-bat?

Avila swung at the first pitch - which was enough to make you pull your hair out, considering Wolfe had trouble throwing strikes - grounding to second base for a likely double-play ball. But Scutaro misplayed the throw to second base, and Inge never stopped running. By the time Edwin Encarnacion ran over to field the ball Scutaro had dropped, it was too late and he didn't even bother with a proper throw.

The game that was a sure loss turned into a win. And the Tigers gave us another moment to remember. This season has been full of them. And it ain't over yet.

Roar:

Huff and Avila will get the big headlines today, but there's no way the Tigers don't make that comeback without the bullpen. The gang that couldn't pitch straight over the past week threw three shutout innings. Fu-Te Ni, Jeremy Bonderman, Ryan Perry, and Bobby Seay combined to allow only two hits.

Comment of the Night:

it's hard to be optimistic sometimes

but hey, gotta try eh?

by mrsunshine

September Call-Ups: Inglett, Wolfe, Hayhurst -- Or, Are the Jays Even Trying?

hugo — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:50:41 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Glad to see you back, Dirk, but couldn't you have brought more friends? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Well, the Jays have apparently underwhelmed everyone by calling up three players: Joe Inglett, Brian Wolfe, and Dirk Hayhurst.

Now, I bow to no one in my Hayhurst man-crush and I am very happy to see him back on the Jays. But a team completely out of the playoff picture like the Jays should be using September callups as an opportunity to give players who progressed this season a taste of the big leagues, not just recalling AAAA types unlikely to be of more than marginal use to the team going forward.

Brian Dopirak was a perfect example of someone who the Jays should be calling up. Dopriak is 25 already, but his career has been held back by injuries as much as (more than, really) development problems. He torched double A this season to the tune of .308/.374/.576 with 19 home runs in and 29 doubles in 87 games. Then, after the all-star break, he similarly smashed up AAA with 21 extra base hits in 45 games and a .344 batting average. He's right at the age where you want to see your minor-league hitter getting a shot at the bigs, and he has certainly earned a promotion with a fantastic season. Perhaps craziest of all, the Jays have Kevin Millar in the lineup on an all-too-regular basis. And yet Dopirak doesn't get promoted.

How about Angel Sanchez? Yeah, it's the PCL but he's hit .305/.363/.428 and his arm has apparently healed enough from ligament replacement surgery for him to reclaim his place as a plus defender at shortstop. With Edwin Encarnacion still hurt, Marco Scutaro could move over to third base on days when Sanchez plays SS, thereby not hurting his stats for his impending free agency. With Scutaro set to leave unless the Jays pony up, shouldn't the Jays at least take a look at what they may have in Sanchez?

Fabio Castro or David Purcey? Neither has been fantastic, but both have had credible seasons considering how tough the PCL can be on pitchers. Purcey threw a complete game, no walk, 3-hit shutout his last time out on Sunday. I'd say the Jays could take another look at him, with two young pitchers set to sit out the rest of the season, instead of giving starts to Brian Tallet. Castro could get a look as well.

And what to say about Jeremy Accardo, who has 26 Ks and 7 walks in 29 innings for Las Vegas, with a 3.10 ERA and lots of groundouts. If they were going to recall someone, why not Accardo, and not Wolfe, considering Accardo has superior both major- and minor-league numbers this season and a much better chance of being a high-leverage reliever for a major-league team.

That doesn't even get into the marginal cases like J.P. Arencibia and Scott Campbell - neither of which has had a great season - but Arencibia has 19 home runs and 31 doubles and has improved his walk rate a little, and Campbell did post a .371 OBP between AA and AAA.

What do you all think? Who would you have called up?

Phillies vs. Blue Jays: June 16-18

Matt Swartz — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Howard and Ibanez have given Phillies fans a lot of reasons to high five. Ibanez is tied for first in the majors with 22 HR, and Howard is 6th in the majors with 19. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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The Phillies (36-25) continue their homestand against the AL East this week with the Toronto Blue Jays (34-31). The Phillies come off a tough series with the Boston Red Sox, in which they lost the first game on 13 innings after a unreviewed and debatable foul homerun call, lost the second game after falling behind 5-0 after a first inning rain delay, and managed a comeback victory against Josh Beckett in the series finale. The Blue Jays have fallen to five games behind the very team that took two of three in Philly this past weekend, after getting swept by the Marlins, and have now lost four in a row. Their offense this year has been pretty solid, putting up nearly 5 runs a game, and in 5th place in runs scored in the AL. Their pitching has been pretty solid, with a 4.30 team ERA. A lot of that is thanks to the excellent season that Roy Halladay has had thus far. Fortuantely for the Phillies, Halladay himself is injured right now, and may go on the disabled list. Certainly, he will miss his scheduled start this Wednesday against the Phillies.

On Tuesday night, Cole Hamels looks to rebound after a disappointing performance against the Mets in which he gave up 11 hits in 5 innings, and surrendered 4 runs. He will go up against LHP Ricky Romero, who has been okay this year, despite a high HR/flyball rate. He has started 7 games thus far, with an ERA of 3.71.

On Wednesday night, the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the hill. He has had an up and down season, though he has shown signs of improving recently. The Blue Jays will probably send out Scott Richmond on Wednesday. He has some vulnerability to the longball, especially by left-handed hitters. Otherwise, he is a pretty average pitcher.

On Thursday night, Joe Blanton will pitch for the Phillies. Blanton has struck out more hitters than ever before, but still has enough bad luck that his ERA is high. He is turning it around in recent starts as well. The Blue Jays will send Casey Janssen to the mound on Thursday night. Janssen is a contact-pitcher who gets a lot of groundballs when he's successful.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Ricky Romero (L)

Wednesday 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Scott Richmond (R)

Thursday 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Casey Janssen (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .298/.397/.439

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .313/.351/.495

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .275/.330/.457

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .238/.296/.369

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .300/.364/.534

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .320/.386/.457

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .283/.393/.547

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .268/.299/.399

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .255/.388/.355

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .255/.255/.319

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .227/.227/.227

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .240/.307/.384

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Joe Inglett (L): .150/.227/.150

proj: .280/.340/.390
bb: 7.5%
k: 15%
gb: 48%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: patient with good eye, above average contact
r/l: .759 vs .624 ops; 2.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .681 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.71 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.02 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero: has not played any Phillies

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Scott Richmond (R): 3.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.44 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond: has not played any Phillies

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.27 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Brian Tallet (L): 4.87 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.69 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Scott Downs (L): 2.05 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.09 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 66% fb, 31% cb, 3% sl, 0.1% ch
r/l: .784 vs .641 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .649 vs .842 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb

Downs vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jason Frasor (R): 1.93 ERA, 1.2 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.52 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.22 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1 BB
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 6.06 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.93 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 3.91 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.73 FIP, 62% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: has not faced any Phillies

OPTIONED TO AAA: Brian Wolfe (R): 7.56 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% ct, 16% ch, 2% ch, 1% sl
r/l: .561 vs .915 ops; 3.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .723 ops; 2.7 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wolfe vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.254/.330

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .287/.338/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .305/.438/.577

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.330/.566

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.440

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .318/.365/.445

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .284/.405/.459

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.359/.430

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .167/.263/.250

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .175/.250/.316

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .289/.460/.553

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.73 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 13/38, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 11/29, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 9/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 6/16, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 2/6, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.17 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista< 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.53 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 1.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.84 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 4.76 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.55 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
hill: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.14 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.30 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
OVerbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 0/1,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.08 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.60 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 7/19, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
SScutaro: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.23 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.67 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 1 BB
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): has not played yet in 2009

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

Brian Wolfe Optioned to Las Vegas

Tom Dakers — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:05:31 -0000

And Dirk Hayhurst was called up. Dirk was 2-3, 5.11 at Vegas. Yeah, I don't understand why it wasn't Accardo, it makes no sense to me. But Dirk is a favorite of Hugo's and will likely do a good job in that long relief role. As you likely know Dirk writes a Non-Prospect Diary for Baseball America's web site. Don't read too much into the high ERA, the PCL is a batter's league. I guess the reason it isn't Jeremy Accardo coming up is that they want a guy that can go a few innings, but if I'm Accardo I'm feeling pretty ripped off at the moment.

Well, After 9 Losses in a Row I Guess We'll Take a Series Win

Tom Dakers — Sun, 31 May 2009 23:24:39 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Kevin Millar agrees with us, there wasn't much worth watching in that game. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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Red Sox 8 Jays 2

Not much worth talking about there, other than a strike zone that, at very least, seemed to be all over the place. One inning Lester gets a strikeout on a pitch high and clearly outside (from the overhead camera way outside) to Romero not getting strike calls on pitches above the knee down the middle. Lester really didn't need the help today while Ricky sure could have used it.

We got 5 hits on the day, one a Alex Rios homer that was very nice to see. Sox got 4 homers on the day, 2 off Romero, 2 off Brian Wolfe. I think our first 4 hits were infield singles. It was just not a good day. There were no Jays of the Day today. Suckage Jay was Romero with a -.269 WPA.

Just to state the obvious, I have no idea Brian Wolfe is with the team while Jeremy Accardo is in Triple-A. Wolfe gave up homers on back-to-back pitches today. And his last appearance was the wonderful effort against Baltimore on Wednesday. I don't think we need to put up a poll to know that 100% of us think that Accardo should be up over Wolfe.

Anyway taking 2 of 3 from Boston is good and we are just 1.5 back of the Yankees for first in the AL East and 1 game behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card spot.

There were a couple of Jay stories on MLB.com. In one JP says we might be a buyer in by the trade deadline. I guess that really tells us nothing, he doesn't suggest what we might be looking for. And in more shocking news, JP says he still believes in Travis Snider. Was there a doubt?

Off day tomorrow then Tuesday we start a series against the LA Angels.

The Milwaukee Brewers' Last Trade With Each Team

TheJay — Sat, 09 May 2009 15:48:24 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

A long time ago, in a league 98 miles away, this guy was part of the Brewers' last trade with the Yankees.

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One of my favorite parts of each year's team media guide is the page listing the Brewers' last trade with all the other major league teams. Maybe it's because it's so esoteric, maybe it's because of all the "some-team-wanted-him?" thoughts it prompts, or maybe it's the idea that for years Brewers and Mariners management had a bitter blood feud getting in the way of amicable trading. I don't know. Either way, let's take a trip down memory lane, transaction-style:

(note: PTBNL below stands for "Player to be Named Later," defined here)

The Milwaukee Brewers' Last Trade With...

Arizona Diamondbacks - 11/25/2006
Traded LHP Doug Davis, LHP Dana Eveland, and OF Dave Krynzel for C Johnny Estrada, RHP Claudio Vargas, and RHP Greg Aquino
Atlanta Braves - 12/7/2005
Traded RHP Wes Obermueller for RHP Dan Kolb
Chicago Cubs - 8/31/2004
Traded OF Ben Grieve for LHP Andy Pratt and cash
Cincinnati Reds - 1/14/2000
Traded OF Alex Ochoa for OF Mark Sweeney and a PTBNL (RHP Gene Altman)
Colorado Rockies - 12/13/2004
Traded RHP Marcos Carvajal in exchange for cash
Florida Marlins - 11/25/1996
Traded RHP Eddie Collins for LHP Joel Adamson
Houston Astros - 9/11/2007
Traded RHP Dennis Sarfate for cash
Los Angeles Dodgers - 3/26/2007
Traded OF Brady Clark and cash for RHP Elmer Dessens
New York Mets - 11/20/2007
Traded C Johnny Estrada for RHP Guillermo Mota
Philadelphia Phillies - 7/28/2006
Traded RHP Wilfrido Laureano for 3B David Bell
Pittsburgh Pirates - 12/7/2007
Traded RHP Marino Salas and RHP Kevin Roberts for RHP Salomon Torres
St. Louis Cardinals - 8/22/2003
Traded RHP Mike DeJean for two PTBNL (RHP Mike Crudale and RHP John Novinsky)
San Diego Padres - 7/25/2007
Traded LHP Joe Thatcher, RHP Will Inman, and LHP Steve Garrison for RHP Scott Linebrink
San Francisco Giants - 7/20/2008
Traded OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond for 2B Ray Durham
Washington Nationals - 9/4/2007
Traded a PTBNL (1B Andrew Lefave) for LHP Ray King

The AL teams are after the jump.

Baltimore Orioles - 7/16/1999
Traded a PTBNL (RHP Al Reyes) for RHP Rocky Coppinger
Boston Red Sox - 7/31/1998
Traded IF Eddy Diaz for RHP Joe Hudson
Chicago White Sox - 12/13/2004
Traded OF Scott Podsednik, RHP Luis Vizcaino and a PTBNL (IF Travis Hinton) for LF Carlos Lee
Cleveland Indians - 7/7/2008
Traded OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL (OF Michael Brantley) for LHP CC Sabathia
Detroit Tigers - 7/1/2007
Traded RHP Jose Capellan for LHP Chris Cody
Kansas City Royals - 3/27/2007
Traded RHP Ben Hendrickson for a Marxist Empire
LAnaheim Angels - 7/31/2002
Traded OF Alex Ochoa and C Sal Fasano for C Jorge Fabregas and 2 PTBNL (RHP Pedro Liriano and IF John Raburn)
Minnesota Twins - 11/15/2002
Traded RHP Gerry Oakes and RHP Matt Yeatman for RHP Matt Kinney and C Javier Valentin
New York Yankees - 8/23/1996
Traded IF Pat Listach and LHP Graeme Lloyd for OF Gerald Williams and RHP Bob Wickman
Oakland Athletics - 5/23/2007
Traded RHP Alec Zumwalt for cash.
Seattle Mariners - 5/19/2005
Traded C Pat Borders for cash.
Tampa Bay Rays - 4/22/2008
Traded OF Gabe Gross for RHP Josh Butler
Texas Rangers - 7/28/2006
Traded OF Carlos Lee and OF Nelson Cruz for RHP Francisco Cordero, LHP Julian Cordero, OF Kevin Mench, and OF Laynce Nix
Toronto Blue Jays - 1/6/2006
Traded RHP Brian Wolfe for 3B Corey Koskie

This information comes out of the Brewers' 2009 Media Guide. I believe all listed trades include someone on the 40-man roster for one of the teams. Any errors are mine in transcription or not diligently checking MLB's work.

Actual Jay News

Tom Dakers — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:44:37 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Purcey contemplating the odds of being sent down to Triple A Vegas (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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The Jays have sent David Purcey down to Triple A Vegas and have called up Robert Ray, Brett Cecil and Brian Wolfe. Not sure who will start which game. Ray's last start was Tuesday and Cecil's last start was Thursday, so I'd imagine Ray will take Purcey's planned Saturday start and Cecil might go Tuesday. I'm really not understanding way we couldn't have called up Cecil last week instead of Brian Burres. You are telling me that last week Cecil wasn't ready to come up to the Jays but this week he is?

Anyway Cecil hasn't been tearing it up in Vegas, he is 0-3, with a 8.31 ERA. His last start was his best, 6 innings, 4 hits, just 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. Ray has had just one start in Triple A and pitched 4.1 shutout innings. Wolfe has a 3.46 ERA in 9 relief appearances. I'd imagine Wolfe will be the long man in the pen.

Honest I didn't think Ray was on the radar to get called up now and I figured Purcey would get a couple more chances. But it should make this week interesting.

Even Here We Are: Is The Blue Jays' Bullpen Headed For a Fall in 2009?

hugo — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 13:10:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

8 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Brandon League reacts after hitting Cleveland Indians' Ben Francisco with the bases loaded to force in a run in the seventh inning of a baseball game Friday, April 10, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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Thanks to the great Paul Westerberg (nee of the Replacements) for today's title. We're five games into the 2009 season and while the Jays have played impressive baseball with both their rejiggered offense and their young starting pitchers showing promise, one thing that hasn't looked great so far is the one thing fans were counting on to shine, the Jays' bullpen. I won't get into the stats as we're talking about tiny sample sizes, but they've walked 9 thusfar in 15 innings.

Last season, the Jays' had mlb's best bullpen, but they also threw the fewest innings of any bullpen. That's no surprise - the less a bullpen is worked, the more able it is to use its best pitchers and to match up situations better, and of course the less tired the pitchers are. I was wondering, though, how many of those performances were flukey and to what extent the numbers show the Jays' bullpen can be expected to fall back a bit in 2009.

For an example, there's no doubt that Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, and Brandon League did a fine job in 2008. However, each pitcher overperformed his FIP (3.39, 3.80, and 4.16 respectively) by over a full run and a half, with League just about 2 runs better (Downs, Carlson, and League finished with 1.78, 2.25, and 2.18 ERAs respectively). Some of that can be attributed to the Jays' fine defense, particularly with respect to Downs and League who had extremely high groundball rates (4.71 GB/FB for League 2.93; for Downs) but not all of it and Carlson was actually an extreme flyball pitcher. Taking a look at the runners left on base and you have a better picture - Downs, League, and Carlson each stranded between 85 and 87 percent of runners, and those just aren't numbers you expect to see year-to-year (Doc is historically quite good and stranding runners, since he's quite good in general, and stranded about 75% last season). The difference between those two can make a big difference in a reliever's ERA and perceived performance, and LOB% is one of those things where you see a lot of fluctuation year to year. Downs and League also exhibited near-ridiculous home run rates (.38 and .55 HR/9 innings) and that is always tough to keep up. He didn't have a lot of innings, but Brian Wolfe had a similar performance, with an ERA almost 1.5 runs better than his FIP and 85% of runners left stranded.

In the less extreme camp, B.J. Ryan and Brian Tallet both exceeded their FIP by about 3/4 of a run and stranded about 80% of runners. Both had good strikeout numbers but middling walk rates (3.51 BB/9 for Tallet, 4.34 for Ryan) and were unusually good at not giving up home runs (though, to be fair, Ryan has always been very good at that). This season, Tallet and Ryan have already surrendered 3 home runs between them -- last season, they only surrendered 8 between them all season.

Jason Frasor's ERA wasn't out of line with his FIP, but he had a strange season overall and didn't pitch many high-leverage innings. Shawn Camp, who, like Frasor, has gotten off to a quick start this season, actually underperformed his FIP last season, though also in generally low-leverage situations. They are two who could actually improve on last season.

Looking at the situation as a whole, I'm definitely not saying that the Jays' relievers aren't excellent pitchers -- they are. But looking at the situation as a whole, it is a little unreasonable to expect the same performances from those gentlemen as a group, though there are reasons to expect each one to do so (Downs has done his thing for 2 full seasons now, Ryan is the proper 18 months removed from TJ surgery, Tallet has gotten better every season as a Jay, League continues to develop his secondary pitches and has ridiculous groundball rates, etc). This is especially true if you consider the increased workload they can expect supporting the Jays' young cast of starters. Complicating the matter is that the Jays bullpen won't remain static all season - Jeremy Accardo is waiting in AAA, as are Dirk Hayhurst and plenty of other arms. If Casey Janssen joins the rotation, Scott Richmond could become the long reliever -- alternatively, if Janssen has trouble stretching out, he could be the relief arm.

To sum up, the Jays bullpen can't be expected to dominate like it did last season. But there is every reason to believe it will continue to be one of the better bullpens in the AL. Even with its early struggles this season, the Jays' pen has still managed a respectable 1.27 Whip, 16/9 K/BB ratio over 15 innings, and 3.00 ERA.

New Architects: Game Preview and Thread, Tigers at Jays

hugo — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 17:04:48 -0000

If you haven't already rounded up this morning's news, we did so this morning so check it out. However, we missed a couple of really interesting blog posts.

First, Ghostrunner on First takes a great look at Dustin McGowan -- where he's been and what we might expect from him going forward. We know the Jays were a little optimistic with McGowan's expected return time, and I tend to think that they did that, consciously or subconsciously, due to the fact that they knew they would not significantly augment the pitching staff in the offseason. That said, the important thing is that McGowan comes back healthy and effective, not exactly when he does so. He's a significant part of the Jays' future.

One really interesting article we missed was this fascinating look over at Southpaw, one of the more interesting and thoughtful Jays' blogs around, at which teams have been most effective in the draft in drafting useful major league players. Southpaw comes to the conclusion that the Jays have been the second-most successful team in the draft since J.P. Ricciardi's reign began. I think that is interesting, but limited in that his focus is on major-league players who have gotten some playing time, not wins or runs over replacement from drafted players, which would be, in my opinion, a more interesting and less Jays'-friendly look.

Some moves: Russ Adams, Jason Lane, Brad Emaus, and Scott Campbell were returned to minor-league camp. All enjoyed excellent springs and it would not surprise me to see 2 or 3 of them get major-league time this year. On the pitching side, Brian Wolfe was optioned to AAA and Dirk Hayhurst was returned to minor league camp.

Scott Richmond pitches for the Jays this afternoon and continues his attempt to make the rotation.

Jays' Lineup:

Marco Scutaro, SS
Aaron Hill, 2B
Alex Rios, RF
Vernon Wells, CF
Lyle Overbay, 1B
Scott Rolen, 3B
Adam Lind, DH
Michael Barrett, C
Travis Snider, LF