SB Nation - Grant Balfour

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

Grant Balfour Signs For $2.05M and Avoids Arbitration

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 18:11:57 -0000

Per Marc Topkin's Twitter.

Sometimes it feels like Grant Balfour is the most polarizing figure in the bullpen. I know, I know. Dan Wheeler is present, but most of that angst stems from Wheeler's pay relative to the team's payroll, not because he's an entirely useless pitcher - he gets righties out quite well, actually. Balfour has the tendency to either walk or strike the guy out. Simple enough, right? But last season he also ran into some poor luck in stranding runners, which lead to a bloated ERA.

Balfour has some things going for him that should endear him to most. First and foremost being that he lights up radar guns. The Rays bullpen held one of the lowest average fastball velocities last season. So even with a decreased amount of heat, Balfour was the only cat playing with gasoline instead of flint. He also brings respectable strikeout rates with those flames. Look at Mike MacDougal's career K/9 and tell me he throws hard. It just doesn't fit. Balfour doesn't have that problem, but he does walk guys, which any generic announcer worth his weight in candy grams will tell you is a cardinal sin out of the bullpen.

True in some cases, but the strikeouts make Balfour's infidelity to the zone worthwhile. J.P. Howell, whom everyone should love dearly, actually walked more on a per nine basis than Balfour, yet he avoids the scorn - and rightfully so - unlike his Australian pen mate. Balfour still missed more than his share of bats, but a 79.1% contact rate was the highest of his career. At this point, the hope is for a bounce back to his older ways, if not, he's still a decent reliever - a 3.77 FIP this year is almost identical to his career totals - however the best reliever in a good bullpen he is not.

As for the money, don't worry about it. $2M is more than a 50% reduction on what he was worth last season in free agent dollars. As someone in their final year of arbitration, he should be making closer to 80% of his worth.

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Why The Rays 1-2 Bullpen Punch Might Be Good Enough Part-One; The Set-Up

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 11:00:22 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

An ugly ERA, should prevent Tampa Bay Rays' reliever, Grant Balfour from earning his true value in arbitration. For him this is bad, for the team and us, this is good.

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The Atlanta Braves have wasted no time in setting the market for relief pitching. The signing of Billy Wagner to a one-year deal worth seven million dollars should give teams a barometer for other available closers. I'm not saying Wagner has set the bar, but it's something to compare nonetheless. Atlanta also made their move in the setup man market with the signing of Takashi Saito. The Braves guaranteed him $3.2 million dollars to be Wagner's wingman. Both former Red Sox are a bit long in the tooth and have some injury questions, but are good pitchers; in Wagner's case great when 100%.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay we are still waiting for relief of our own. After Frank Wren and John Coppolella dashed many dreams of Wagner in a Rays uniform, hopefully reality has set it for those who still remain optimistic that the Rays will land a big money closer. If Wagner received $7 million, expect Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano to make the same if not more. As we've said multiple times, the Rays will undoubtledly add a reliever (or 10), but it will be of the Kiko Calero variety. And really that's fine because the Rays already have their Wagner and Saito in house.

Like James Shields, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are slightly lower on the talent todem pole than some of their well known peers. Also like Shields, they are providing something that their peers aren't; great value. If the payroll allowed for it, I would have no problem with the Rays shelling out the money for top notch relief pitching, but since the funds aren't readily available, I prefer to have them allocated elsewhere like extensions of our younger talent.

Over the past two seasons, Saito and Balfour have posted similar numbers. In 2008, Saito posted a phenominal 2.00 FIP as the part-time closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers spearheaded by his dazzling 11.49 K/9 and his impressive 0.19 HR/9 over 47 innings. Not to be completely out done, as many of you remember Balfour spend most of his 2008 campaign telling opposing batters to STFD. Arguably a top three reliever in the American League, Balfour posted an FIP of 2.22 in 58.1 innings of ball in the highly competitive AL East. His 12.65 K/9 lead the league and his 0.46 HR/9 wasn't too shabby either.

In 2009, both relievers took a step back from their nearly unrepeatable 2008's. Even the step back, both were still above average firemen. Saito found like in the AL East a bit more difficult as his FIP doubled and then some. However, he still finished with a respectable 4.25 moving from Dodgers closer to Johnathan Papelbon's caddy in Boston. Despite pitching a few more innings than the previous season, Saito finished with less K's overall and saw his K/9 drop from 11.49 to 8.41. He also saw that miniscule 0.19 HR/9 rise to 0.97, but I'll chalk that up to regression of his HR/FB rate from 2.3 to 7.3 (career 5.7).

Like Saito, Balfour saw some struggles in 2009. However, it was not nearly as bad as his 4.81 ERA suggest or the numerous BALFOUR MUST GO comments we heard from fans. It's true, Balfour gets a little loose with the free pass often, but that's what he's expected to do. Balfour has lived up to his surname nearly five times per nine innings in his career and did so nearly 4.5 times last season. It's far from ideal, but when you strike out over a batter per inning, certain privileges are granted. With the added walks, Balfour saw a decrease in strikeouts of over three per nine innings. Despite the large drop off, Balfour still struckout a batter per nine and ended the season with a K/9 of 9.22. Like his counterpart, he experienced a slight regression in HR/FB rate, but the Aussie still managed to keep the ball in the part at a decent 0.80 clip. More walks, less strikeouts and more home runs are never a good thing, but nonetheless, Balfour's FIP was nearly a half run lower than Saito's despite carrying and ERA of 2.5 runs higher. A near 25% difference in LOB% will do that sometimes.

We know Saito will make a guaranteed $3.2 million dollars. There are also incentives based on games finished, but the Braves hope that a healthy Wagner will take care of that. There is another $500k in non game finishing incentives. That means there is a decent chance Saito could make ~$4 million dollars in 2010. Even at that price, he should still a value especially with the league change.

Balfour, on the other hand, made $1.4 million dollars in 2009 as an arbitration (2) eligible player. His eyesore ERA should keep him from getting true value in his third round of arbitration which I ballpark around $3.2 million dollars. More likely than not, Balfour will get a raise putting him over $2 million, but a bit shy of $3.2 million.

No, this will not satisfy the pitchforked crowd that view Balfour as an uncontrollable wild man, but this wasn't my intention. However, for the group of us that can look past the walks and the bloated ERA, I think this reinforces the fact that while we can all agree the need for help in the bullpen is needed, some of that help is already here.

A look at the left handed closer side of these duos next week.

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

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We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

Tampa Bay Rays Continue To Buck Trends And Set New Ones; Market Exploitation 101

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are never going to be major spenders in the free agent market like their AL East Rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Instead, this team is built on, and will continue to be built on, things like: the amateur draft, international signings and development, shrewd free agent signings, and the occasional risky trade. In the Andrew Friedman era we've seen examples of nearly all of these scenarios; the drafting of Evan Longoria, the signing of Akinori Iwamura, the signing of Carlos Pena, and the Delmon Young/Scott Kazmir trades just to name a few.

Much to our collective chagrin, not all of the Rays moves are going to work as planned. For every Pena, there will be a Hee Sop Choi. For every Matt Garza and Ben Zobrist trade there will be deals like the ones involving Dioner Navarro and Edwin Jackson that don't exactly work as hoped. To be successful, the Rays not only need to follow the good process practice, but they must also excel in spotting market inefficiencies and exploiting them fully.

After the 2007 season the Rays made a conscious effort to improve their defense. They sought out cheap and effective defenders (Jason Bartlett, Gabe Gross) and built an American League Championship team around it. Defense has always been an important part of the game, but after seeing the Rays blueprint for success, many other teams went into 2009 looking for that same success.

Teams like the Mariners(trading Yuniesky Betancourt and replacing him with Jack Wilson as well as acquiring Franklin Gutierrez), Rangers (moving Michael Young for Elvis Andrus) and the Tigers (Adam Everett, Gerald Laird) all improved their defense and their win totals. In many ways because of the Rays success defense became the new version of Moneyball. This past off-season, teams shied away from offense only players and looked for a more readily available and cheap asset that can be found in a variety of places. However, defense isn't the only efficiency the Rays have tried to recently exploit.

In 2007, the Rays took a shot on a rehabbing Al Reyes and in return received a solid season from the oft-injured veteran. It was no surprise when Reyes flamed out in 2008, but he gave the Rays more production than any of us could've imagined. Also in 2007, the Rays traded for another oft-injured reliever in Grant Balfour, who had been placed on a few scrap heaps before landing with Tampa Bay. The Rays gambled on Seth McClung's potential in favor of Balfour's. In 2008, Balfour exceeded everyone's expectations and was a top three reliever in the American League; in 2009, he regressed to the top 15 or 20. Of course, there are names like Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen that didn't work out as well, however, the process was and still is good. We should all expect the Rays to continue dabbling in the injured reliever market in hopes of finding that next diamond in the rough.

The Rays were used to selecting at the top of the draft before 2009. Under the current regime we've added Evan Longoria, David Price and Tim Beckham at the top of the draft board. However, in 2009 the Rays were faced with a lower draft pick for the first time in franchise history. While it was never publicly acknowledged, the Rays seemed to target "toolsy," but injured players, especially in the beginning of the draft. With their first four picks they selected four injured prep stars. Once again, the plan didn't work perfectly as the projected easy sign, Levon Washington is set to play at a junior college and Kenny Diekroeger stayed committed to Stanford. However, third round selection, Todd Glaesmann, is projected to be an above average center fielder or corner outfielder. Meanwhile fourth round pick, Luke Bailey, may be the most talented catcher in the draft. The Rays will have to wait a bit longer, especially in the case of Bailey, who already faces an uphill battle as a catching prospect, but if all goes well the Rays will have secured a few first round talents without handing out a seven figure bonus to any draft pick.

Yesterday, the Rays may have uncovered another market inefficiency by executing the first "sign and trade" that we've seen in recent baseball history; trading Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez. As far as the trade goes, in a vacuum it's win for the Pirates. They get a three-win second basemen, who is signed for the 2010 season at well below market value. However, when you take the deal in context, Iwamura's days with the Rays were in the single digits no matter how you look at it and they were able to get something with everybody knowing that.

In actuality, it's a win-win for both parties. The Pirates get that three-win second basemen and the Rays are basically getting something for nothing. Once again, Aki is a fine player and worth every penny of the $4.85 million dollar salary, but the Rays have better and cheaper options in Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Willy Aybar, who in total will make less than Iwamura in 2010. In return for a player that had as good of a chance as you or I playing for the Rays in 2010, they get a 26 year-old relief pitcher who projects to be at least an average middle reliever. Jesse Chavez is young, has had major league success and most importantly is cheap and controllable(with options).

I don't expect this sort of deal to become the norm in baseball because the system is not set up for many of these trade opportunities like the NBA. However, the Rays surveyed their limited options, and were able to trade a player who they had no use for and still get a Major League ready chip in return. They also save themselves the money it would've cause to buy out Iwamura's option.

Chavez may turn out to be nothing more than an average reliever and that's alright. He is under team control for five years and could fill a variety of roles for the Rays. If the worst case scenario plays out and Chavez is deemed a "bust," then all the Rays would have lost is time and patience. The deal from a talent prospective isn't extremely impressive, but the Rays finding yet another way to acquire useful talent without using a lot of resources is very.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

Why The Rays Should Target Joaquin Benoit

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:01:04 -0000

Stopping short of just inviting every free agent reliever who possesses a fastball and a slider to spring training, I decided to look into a few individual cases that I think might fit the Rays' plans in 2010. The first name is Joaquin Benoit. The name has been mentioned in passing on the site for the past few weeks, but now it's time to actually take a look at him.

Benoit, 32, is one of those fastball/slider combo relievers that we see having success all over the league. While he isn't the extreme slider pitcher that Michael Wuertz is (over 60% last two seasons), he throws his fair share. He also isn't as fastball conscious as Grant Balfour or David Aardsma thanks to a nice little change up in his arsenal. Despite the lack of a plus plus heater, a person with knowledge of the Rangers system and Benoit described his slider as a "true slider" that has enhanced his K rate as a reliever. They also mentioned he has "good stuff to keep you interested, but can frustrate you." Sounds a lot like the aforementioned Balfour, who has been one of the best relievers in baseball the past two seasons.

Drawing even more comparisons to Balfour in a different way, Benoit fits the mold of an injured reliever who could be a steal for the next team that takes a chance on him being healthy. He missed the entire 2009 season after having shoulder surgery in 2008. Sources that I've reached out to say he started throwing in August and is a likely candidate to pitch in a winter league to showcase his arm for Major League suitors. Until he proves he's fully recovered the injury will remain a concern, but Benoit was a pretty effective reliever before the shoulder gave way.

	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005*	87	3.72	3.95	4.54	8.07	3.93	0.93
2006	79.2	4.86	3.37	3.76	9.6	4.29	0.56
2007	82	2.85	3.17	4.05	9.55	3.07	0.66
2008	45	5	5.29	5.62	8.6	7	1.2

*45 innings came as a starting pitcher.

Benoit put up a lot of innings in 2006 and 2007, but also put up very good numbers. It seems that the workload took its toll on his arm, and as you can see his abbreviated 2008 wasn't particularly good. Of course, the hope is he can get back to those three years of sub 4 FIPs and continue to decrease his walks.

I hit on his stuff briefly at the top, but here's a little bit more.

	FB%	SL%	CH%
2005	61.5	20	13.4
2006	62.9	20.3	13.1
2007	58.6	19.7	20.7
2008	64.6	13.2	21.8

Interesting to see the decrease in sliders coinciding with the injury. Thoughts of Scott Kazmir pop up even though Kazmir's problems were elbow related. As a former starter, Benoit has multiple pitches including a curveball and a cutter, but sticks to these three as his main pitches.

	LD%	FB%	GB%	HR/FB%
2005	19	48.4	32.7	7.5
2006	18.6	44.1	37.3	5.2
2007	23.5	39.2	37.3	7.1
2008	17.3	55.9	26.8	8.5

Benoit went from a predominately flyball pitcher to a near neutral pitcher over the course of three seasons. In 2008, however, the flyballs increased over 15%. I'm guessing this was once again because of the injury.

	Swstr%	K%	uBB%	O-Swing%
2005	12.1	26.09	10.56	23
2006	12.4	24.5	9.8	26.4
2007	15.1	25.89	7.74	29.9
2008	13	20.57	15.79	30.7

If you look at the first category and aren't impressed then you should probably just stop reading. Benoit has been fantastic at getting swinging strikes which is a great sign for any pitcher. When Balfour was busy telling people to STFD in 2008, his swstr 11.2%. That would be low for Benoit.

Despite the nice numbers and the good stuff there is a fair amount of risk in signing Benoit , without this risk he would be at the top of every teams shopping list. The situation is far from ideal, and after the past few seasons we as Rays fans should be weary of any relief pitchers with injury histories: Troy Percival, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Nelson, just to name a few. However, without the payroll flexibility to sign an elite relief pitcher, gambling on the Benoits of the worlds is going to be a risk we must take. One scout recently told us "bullpen guys are fluky to begin with, but especially slider guys. You can get lucky and catch them in that special year where the slider is unhittable; always wise to try those guys."

And that's all I'm saying here. Benoit is not the answer if you're looking for an opening day closer, but over the course of the season he could be an above average piece with experience in the back-end of games that would mesh well with the nucleus of J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Lance Cormier and even Dan Wheeler, if he's around. After talking to some other people around the Rangers, some feel there is a chance he can even be brought in as a non-roster invitee. If the Rays could swing that, I would be ecstatic. Speaking with a person with front office experience, he said "Bullpens are crazy. It's a crap shoot; see what sticks." Tell me about it.

Grant Balfour's Impressive August

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:28:43 -0000

I regret missing this the first time around, but take a look:

April: 37 BF, 19% K, 22% uBB

May: 67 BF, 22% K, 10% uBB

June: 49 BF, 27% K 8% uBB

July: 51 BF, 22% K, 10% uBB

August: 47 BF, 28% K, 2% uBB

Seriously, that's about as good as you can for from any pitcher.

Dear Seth McClung,

Jordan M — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 03:16:56 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

I have seriously considered buying a 73 McClung shirt jersey at Miller Park.

Browse more photos »

Since you were acquired from the Rays for Grant Balfour you've been a favorite of Brew Crew Ball and the Brewer fanbase in general. The first pitch you threw in Arizona hit 100 miles per hour on the FSN gun-- I remember it quite vividly. Through the Ned Yost playoff push of 2007, you were reliable from the pen. Jim Powell would always talk about the Brewers simplifying your mechanics to improve your control.

In 2008 you were the surprise of the staff. Many people did not think you would make the opening day roster, but some of us knew you would have to be a contributor to the staff at some point. You went on to have a remarkable season, performing out of the bullpen and filling in admirably in the starting rotation when few thought you would succeed. Your strikeout rate rose and walk rate dropped, good indicators for sustained improvement. You capped it off with an incredible performance in relief of Jeff Suppan in the final week of the season against the Cubs-- after coming in in the sixth, you finished off the game, allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk and striking out 6 Cubs. In a week that featured 2 Ryan Braun gamewinning homers, 3 Sabathia starts, and a Prince Fielder walkoff homer, and Gallardo's comeback effort, your performance was not overshadowed. It was absolutely amazing. I will also never forget the image of you jumping off of the bullpen wall after Braun's 8th-inning homer of the final game of the regular season. Such a joyous reaction that many of us watching at home could relate to entirely.

And now we're up to the present. It's been an interesting year of course, I don't think we need to do any specific recaps because it is happening right now. But the reason I write is because of your twitter. I don't think I have ever read a more enthusiastic twitter feed. It's a lot of fun to read. It really is so neat to learn the insights from the players themselves, and I say that without sarcasm. A lot of athletes have tried twitter and posted a few generic updates about how the team is doing, but honestly Seth, your feed so far is the most entertaining one I have come across. I just bookmarked it, and I don't even have Haudricourt's bookmarked. Just Adam McCalvy's.

Seth, your dedication to keeping the fans informed is absolutely admirable and I wish more athletes out there were like you. Everything we've heard about you is that you're a great guy and teammate. So with that being said, I'd like to formally apologize for the cheap joke I made about your conventions; first of all I had no knowledge of any factors involved and I really hate to be a grammar stickler anyway. It's simply out of habit based on my college-level English courses. I sincerely didn't mean it. And the way I constructed the joke was pretty stupid anyway, your control has been pretty solid over the past two years.

So to wrap this up, I am sincerely sorry about that and I hope you will not hold it against me. I think it is amazing that today analysts/bloggers can freely interact with the athletes whose performances they analyze. I think it's good for all of us to know that athletes are people just like anybody else-- they do normal activities, and sometimes they make spelling mistakes. I only hope to encourage you and any other professional athlete to continue on the trend towards more transparency and exposure.

Meanwhile, we will keep writing about our favorite team. I have spent hours analyzing the minor league BABIP of Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel's platoon splits and, Seth, your pitch f/x data. I will probably spend many more hours analyzing Brewer information in the future. It's all in fun and it all serves to increase our understanding and appreciation of the game. That's what really matters here.

So thank you, Seth, and good luck to you in your role as a Milwaukee Brewer. Keep up the good work.