SB Nation - Damian Miller

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:38:02 -0000

Craig Counsell slides right into the projected 2010 roster.

Some things to read while she digs for her phone.

It's finally time to back off the comments about Randy Wolf not wanting to be here. Wolf said all the right things in his introductory press conference yesterday, and now actually appears happy to be a Brewer. Jen Lada was also at the press conference, and tweeted four quotes giving a nice feel for Wolf and the organization's excitement to have him.

The Brewers also announced Craig Counsell's new deal yesterday (FanShot). Counsell will earn $2.1 million next season along with some playing time incentives. The Bucky Channel says moves like this one are "crucial when trying to make a smaller market team a contender." Fire Doug Melvin is fine with the move, as long as Counsell doesn't take playing time away from Mat Gamel.

With Wolf and Counsell officially on board and LaTroy Hawkins (physical on Wednesday) and Claudio Vargas (physical on Friday) expected to be added by the end of the week, Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewer 40 man roster is about to be full, which might mark the end of any major Brewer moves in free agency. Two notes on that:

If you're still waiting for the Brewers to sign another starting pitcher, odds are you'll be waiting for a while. Adam McCalvy said Doug Melvin probably regrets comments he made months ago suggesting the Brewers were looking to sign two starters.
Secondly, the 40 man roster may be full, but it's a "soft" full. Room could almost certainly be made by outrighting new acquisition Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard, who would most likely go unclaimed at a time of year when no one has many 40 man spots to spare.

The roster crunch was one of the reasons cited for non-tendering Mike Rivera. Brewed Sports isn't too happy with the decision, and also notes that non-tendering the team's lone returning catcher pokes a hole in arguments used to support starting Jason Kendall last season.

Speaking of crowded situations, you can add David Riske to the list of pitchers to pencil into a bullpen spot to start the season. Doug Melvin said Riske expects to be ready for spring training (FanShot). That's bad news for Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and Chuck Lofgren, among others, who now may be fighting for one roster spot. If Mark DiFelice hadn't gone down, they'd all come to Maryvale on the outside looking in. A lot can happen between now and then, of course.

And speaking of Chris Smith, Brewerfan.net asked someone from the Brewer organization to verify some of their option info, and discovered that Smith doesn't have any options left. Obviously, Smith wouldn't be a major loss, but it's possible someone would claim him if he were available.

Meanwhile, we reached the final conclusion of the Mike Cameron era in Milwaukee yesterday, as he agreed to a two year deal with the Red Sox (FanShot). Cameron's strikeouts and one memorable dropped fly ball made him a polarizing talent as a Brewer, but most advanced metrics seem to agree on his significant value, and you'll rarely hear anything negative said about him as a teammate and clubhouse presence. If you missed it last night, Jordan has a goodbye post for him.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Ryan Braun? I think we occasionally forget how rare it is for a player to have an impact as immediate as his in the major leagues. Braun hit the second most home runs of any major leaguer in their first 162 games, and also collected the tenth most hits, making him the only player to appear on both lists.

Speaking of luck, Braden Looper's 14 wins last season made him the most unlikely winner in major league history.

Another day, another new poll for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a catcher, and until 4 pm tomorrow to select our final starting outfielder. So far Damian Miller and Geoff Jenkins are leading those votes, respectively.

After looking at the candidates at catcher, I'm starting to wish I had gone this route instead: Camden Chat has an All-Awful lineup for the 2000-2009 Orioles.

And actually, speaking of awful: Rob Neyer has a ranking of the Top 100 players of the 2000's, and while former Brewers CC Sabathia (#25), Mike Cameron (#36), Ray Durham (#71), Jose Valentin (#88) and Corey Koskie (#92) are on it, Prince Fielder is nowhere to be found.

Around baseball:

Angels: Signed Hideki Matsui to a one year, $6.5 million deal.
Astros: Re-signed outfielder Jason Michaels to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Signed catcher Ramon Castro to a one year, $1 million deal.
Mariners: Signed catcher Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league deal.

Of course, the biggest transaction "announced" yesterday appears to be far from done, and may take several days to be made official: A three way deal would send Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners and prospects to the Blue Jays. You might recognize this trade as one several bloggers mocked Ken Rosenthal for suggesting over the weekend. I guess he knows something after all.

Happy birthday today to 2005-2006 Brewer Rick Helling, who turns 39.

Drink up.

Making Your '00 Face: Catcher

KLSnow — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:00:16 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Outfield: Ryan Braun

Voting for center field opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today we'll unveil the candidates at catcher:

Henry Blanco

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001
Slash line as a Brewer: .222/.303/.268
WAR as a Brewer: 0.6

Raul Casanova

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Slash line as a Brewer: .241/.311/.406
WAR as a Brewer: 0.1

Eddie Perez

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .271/.304/.420
WAR as a Brewer: -0.1

Chad Moeller

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2004-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .204/.257/.319
WAR as a Brewer: -4

Damian Miller

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2005-2007
Slash line as a Brewer: .257/.324/.391
WAR as a Brewer: 1.2

Mike Rivera

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2006-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .260/.333/.423
WAR as a Brewer: 0.6

Johnny Estrada

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2007
Slash line as a Brewer: .278/.296/.403
WAR as a Brewer: -1

Jason Kendall

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2008-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .244/.329/.315
WAR as a Brewer: 2.1

Poll

Who should be the catcher on the BCB All Decade Team?

Raul Casanova

4 votes

Henry Blanco

11 votes

Eddie Perez

5 votes

Chad Moeller

9 votes

Damian Miller

392 votes

Mike Rivera

20 votes

Johnny Estrada

22 votes

Jason Kendall

70 votes

533 votes | Poll has closed

Moments in Diamondbacks History: Randy Johnson K's 20

Jim McLennan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:00:15 -0000

"This was a game to put in a time capsule and let people of the future watch it."
-- Randy Johnson

Cincinatti	Arizona
1. Donnie Sadler, LF	1. Steve Finley, CF
2. Juan Castro, 1B	2. Jay Bell, 2B
3. Barry Larkin, SS	3. Luis Gonzalez, LF
4. Alex Ochoa, RF	4. Reggie Sanders, RF
5. Aaron Boone, 3B	5. Mark Grace, 1B
6. Ruben Rivera, CF	6. Damian Miller, C
7. Pokey Reese, 2B	7. Tony Womack, SS
8. Kelly Stinnett, C	8. Craig Counsell, 3B
9. Chris Reitsma, P.	9. Randy Johnson, P
Full boxscore

The MLB Network showed Randy Johnson's 20-strikeout game at the start of the month, part of a series of high-K outings. It provided a fascinating glimpse into a bygone era of Diamondbacks baseball

Look at the bottom of that Diamondbacks line-up. Ouch. We forget that, outside of Luis Gonzalez, the 2001 Diamondbacks were not great hitters. Among the regulars (250+ PA), the only ones with an OPS+ better than 92 were Gonzo (174), Sanders (117) and Grace (113) - this was a team driven by pitching, with an total ERA+ of 120. To put that into context, it's like every inning for Arizona that year was pitched by Jake Peavy, who has the same career ERA+. Of course and in particular, driven by Curt Schilling and Randy, who went 43-12. That number of wins by two team-mates hadn't been surpassed in the NL since Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry went 46-14 for the Giants in 1966 [and the AZ pair would beat that the following year, going 47-12!]

While ageless wonder Counsell is the only AZ position player still actively playing, there's a couple of semi-familiar names appearing for the Reds too. Donnie Sadler was the leadoff hitter for Cincinnati - the commentators were very enthusiastic about him, saying he was a highly touted Red Sox prospect at one point, also praising his wheels and arm [we'd see startling proof ot the former in this game]. He flamed out, however, his final AB being for Arizona in 2007. Reds' catcher, Kelly Stinnett was also a regular with the Diamondbacks from 1998-2000, and then returned to Arizona in 2005 as a back-up to Chris Snyder.

They mentioned that Castro was making his first start at first-base, outside of spring training, since 8th grade - even now, in his fifteen-year career, he has made just four there. Clearly, the aim was then, as now, to stack your line-up with as many right-handers as possible when facing Johnson, and hope the defense holds up. It didn't help much, with two strikeouts for the Reds in the first - though both came on fastballs, not the devastating slider Johnson was to unleash as the game went on. There was some early speculation by the commentators that Johnson was experiencing back pains earlier on.

The opposing starter for the Reds was Chris Reitsma. He was last seen in the majors in 2007, but played in the 2008 Olympics for Canada. This was his first year in the majors - and it's worth noting he allowed one run in eight innings of work, keeping his team in the game. Admittedly, he did fan eighteen less batters than Johnson, which I'm thinking has got to be a record for K disparity between starters ever. But hang on: a rookie starter giving the Diamondbacks' hitter fits, after barely a month in the major-leagues? Our ace getting basically no run support? Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose...

Two more strikeouts for Randy in the second inning, sandwiched around a brutal sawing-off of Boone's bat. A call from the play-by-play guy [curiously, they seemed to rotate a couple of guys in and out of that role, including Rod Allen] to "Stevie Gilbert" - presumably the stats guy - to find out how many K's Rivera had in his career against Johnson. Is this the same Steve Gilbert now covering the Diamondbacks for MLB.com? When Johnson fanned Stinnett in the third, that tied him with Bob Gibson for (then) 11th on the all-time list. The K of Reitsma which immediately followed, broke the tie.

Said Thom Brennaman at the start of the fourth, "I'm not sure we've seen three more dominant innings." Well,, the fourth probably extended the streak, with Johnson striking out the side. Barry Larkin, the third victim, had a spectacularly bad swing on 2-1, letting the bat and it ending up somewhere behind the umpire. The bat also helicoptered away from him on strike three. I also didn't realize how long the AFLAC trivia question has endured: the one for this game was, "How many NL MVP awards were won in the 1970's by the Reds?" The answer is six.

Gonzo wasted a chance in the bottom of the fourth: he tried to stretch a leadoff single down the left-field line into a double, but got gunned down by the Sadlerzooka . Meanwhile Johnson had fanned six in a row, tying his own franchise record, until Aaron Boone singled with one out in the fifth, ending a streak of 13 consecutive batters retired by Johnson. Boone then stole second, and was running to third on the pitch - a mistake by Johnson on an 0-2 count to Rivera. The RBI single which resulted frustrated the Big Unit, who clearly muttered to himself the rest of the inning, though no more harm was done.

The Diamondbacks did tie it up in the sixth and Johnson was involved, singling to lead things off. Though he was erased on a Finley fielder's choice, the upgraded speed on the basepaths might have been for the best, as our CF then went to third on a Bell single. Gonzo popped up with one out, swinging on a 3-0 pitch, but Sanders drove the run in with another hit. Enlivened by this, Johnson then struck our the next seven batters faced, setting the franchise record which he'd tied earlier: it took him 33 pitches, 25 of which were strikes.

In the middle of the streak the commentators started to wonder "What's going to happen with the Circle K-meter?" as it was only designed to handle sixteen K's. Impromptu banners proved the immediate solution - though between then and the end of 2002, it would overflow on four more occasions - three Big Unit starts, and one by Schilling. We haven't come close to challenging the K-meter since - the high-water mark for the Diamondbacks' pitchers at Chase over the past five seasons is only fourteen strikeouts.

In the eighth inning, the crowd seemed to realize what they were watching, with a 'Ran-dy, Ran-dy' chant going in the stands. However, It was only starting the ninth that Brennaman mentioned the record. After RJ struck out JCastro to end the inning, his 20th K, Johnson thrust his fist towards the sky, and yelled as he left the mound, a rare display of emotion. Of the strikeouts, eighteen were swinging, almost every one on pitches out of the zone. Zero walks. Yet he still ended with a no-decision: his Game Score of 97 remains the highest without the starter getting a W, since Nolan Ryan pitched ten shutout innings, and fanned 15 in August 1990, his Rangers eventually winning in 13.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks didn't do much. In the bottom of the eighth, Arizona had a chance, with Bell's two-out ground-rule double into the pool area. Gonzo was intentionally walked, and a wild pitch moved both runners up. There was some discussion of whether to pinch-hit for Sanders, likely with David Dellucci, but Reggie was left and flew out to center. One also wonders whether Johnson could have gone out there: he'd thrown 124 pitches, but in the seven starts that season, Johnson had averaged 120 pitches per start - his very next outing, he threw 145, perhaps making a point of some kind.

The issue was magnified because we had also played extra-innings the night before - the decision to lift Randy looked flaky, as Byung-Hyun Kim and Bret Prinz combined to walk the bases loaded in the tenth, before Prinz ended things. In the 11th, it looked like even more like the game was over. Two more walks and an error by pitcher Russ Springer on a bunt loaded the bases - for the second consecutive inning, without a Reds hit. A K gave us some hope, but Cincinnati scored two runs on a sacrifice fly, with Sadler tagging up and scoring all the way from second on a ball hit to the wall in deep left-center.

Fortunately, Reds closer Danny Graves, coming off 1.2 innings the night before, couldn't get it done - back-to-back singles by Bell + Gonzalez led things off, and a failed Sanders bunt later, Mark Grace doubled both men home. Two walks - one intentional - loaded the bases, and Graves then faced the last man available off the Diamondbacks' bench. Matt Williams. He worked the count full, hen ripped one down the left-field line, foul by inches. However, the next pitch from Graves was down and away, a bases-loaded walkoff walk, something which has only happened for us five other times in franchise history [most recently on September 9th this year, when current 3B Mark Reynolds walked his way to victory against the Dodgers].

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Johnson, +55.9%
Honorable mentions: Grace, +33.7%; Williams, +33.6%;
Bell, +24.0%; Prinz, +12.0%, Swindell, +10.7%
God-emperor of suck: Russ Springer, -33.2%
Dishonorable mentions: Finley,-18.9%; Colbrunn, -13.7%;
Sanders, -13.3%; Miller, -11.0%

Post-game quotes:

"They told us to lay off his slider and hit his fastball, but, man, you couldn't tell the difference until it was on top of you, and then it was too late, He was throwing 97 mph fastballs and 88 mph sliders and all you could do was say, 'Oh, God.'" -- Reds outfielder Alex Ochoa
"I feel blessed to have seen this twice. When a guy is pitching like that, you put your glove on top of your head because you are not going to need it." -- Mark Grace, who was also playing first-base in the game where Kerry Wood struck out 20 batters.
"It was ridiculous. You know, he throws that batting-practice fastball 92 or 93, and there were a lot of times tonight I thought he was throwing his fastball that speed, and it was 98. It was so easy, with no effort, on any of his pitches, sliders, everything." -- Steve Finley
"I was asked if I wanted to go out there and saw no point in going out there for the 10th inning, I surely could have went out there and done it, but what was the point in going out there and throwing 10 innings? I really didn't see it." -- Randy Johnson

I really enjoyed watching the game, and it was fun to see the likes of Kim, Bell [who went 3-for-5 and saw 31 pitches!] and Grace [supremely clutch in the 11th]. However, it was Johnson's night and a great reminder of exactly how dominating the Big Unit was at his peak - he had more strikeouts (372) that seasonthan Reitsma had in his entire eight-year career. I certainly hope to see more Diamondbacks' coverage on the MLB Network - I can think of several other contests which would certainly deserve repeating on the channel.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:12:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder, seen here checking under his jersey for another jersey, will likely be offered a long term contract by the Brewers this offseason, according to Jon Heyman.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while learning your costume's limitations.

Two more names have surfaced in the search for a new pitching coach: Former Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price and former Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have both reportedly interviewed for the position this week (FanShot). Rick Peterson still appears to be the favorite, but Hernandez has worked with Macha before, and that fact seems to carry some weight for some reason.

It's widely accepted that Albert Pujols will win the NL MVP, but where will Prince Fielder finish? David Gassko of The Hardball Times has developed a system to predict the BBWAA's voting, and it predicts a third place finish for Fielder, behind Pujols and Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman thinks the Brewers will attempt to sign Fielder to a long term deal this offseason.

USA Today has ranked the "shock wave" celebration following Fielder's walk-off home run on September 6 as one of their top ten highlights of the 2009 season. Certainly, it's a moment we'll remember for quite some time.

This is earlier than I normally do birthdays, but happy birthday to Trevor Hoffman, who turns 42 today. As Adam McCalvy notes, Hoffman will become the second oldest player in franchise history with his first appearance in 2010, and could pass Hank Aaron for first place by appearing in a game anytime after June.

Speaking of pitchers who should return next season, there's a new reason to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group. McClung has agreed to give an autographed ball to one randomly selected member of the group, to be chosen on Monday. Membership of the group more than doubled yesterday, but clearly we can do better. If you haven't joined yet, now is the time.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Felipe Lopez, who is riding a career year into free agency for the second time. Anderson notes the differences between Lopez's 2005 and 2009 seasons.

We're just a few hours away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, as the Peoria Javelinas take on Ian Kennedy and the Surprise Rafters at 1:35 Central time today. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the AFL, complete with a link to this PDF of everything you ever wanted to know about the league, and this definition of a Javelina:

Here's something you won't find in that PDF: A javelina, according to the Arizona Game and Fish Department, is also known as a peccary, a medium-sized mammal that looks a bit like a pig. A terrifying, crazed pig.

Here are some other notes on the AFL:

As far as I know, none of the Brewer beat reporters will be in Arizona covering the AFL, but the Javelinas also feature prospects from the Seattle Mariners, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times will be in Arizona following them.
If Baker's coverage and ours aren't enough for you, you can also follow the AFL on Twitter.

Of course, the AFL isn't the only place where baseball is being played right now. The Nashville Sounds' website has a note on the 2009 Sounds playing winter ball in Venezuela. Hernan Iribarren's Cardenales de Lara defeated Adam Heether's Leones del Caracas last night, 7-1. Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run, while Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Need a mental tune-up this morning? NoahJ wants to know how fast you can name the 39 players who appeared in a game for the Brewers this season. I did it with about four and a half minutes to spare, if you need a record to shoot for.

Oh, and if you haven't yet, you're running out of time to cast your ballot in Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report. Even if you've already cast a ballot, you can stop by to rate some of the players that have recently been added, including Alcides Escobar.

If you've done both of those things and you're still looking for something to do, perhaps you should find a job? The Brewers are hiring an HR Coordinator.

Baseball America's Minor League Transactions include the first wave of players to become minor league free agents this offseason, and there's a bunch of former Brewers among them: Greg Aquino, R.J. Swindle, Glendon Rusch, R.A. Dickey and Joe Dillon. Also noted: The Brewers re-signed minor league free agents Jim Henderson (RP) and Patrick Arlis (C), but allowed Chris Duffy to become a free agent.

Elsewhere in the marketplace:

Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a look at Carl Pavano, and why advanced metrics would imply he was better than his conventional numbers showed in 2009.
Jorge Says No! wonders if Jason Marquis' offseason asking price will go down now that he struggled down the stretch and had his start skipped in the NLDS last night.

Continuing their open search process, the Astros have released the names of the ten candidates for their vacant managerial position, and the list includes two former Brewer managers: Ned Yost, as expected, and Phil Garner, who would be entering his second tour of duty managing the team. Garner reportedly called to advocate for Bob Melvin, who coached under him in Milwaukee, but ended up as a candidate himself. The Astros, by the way, are not considering Willie Randolph.

It was a bittersweet moment at TBS headquarters last night, as the end of the final NLDS series meant they'll only get 13 of a possible 20 Division Series broadcasts, but that didn't keep them from celebrating the elimination of the last small market team. Of course, Hass Avocado is the true winner.

I wasn't exactly cheering on the Dodgers over the weekend, but when they won I was happy to see Mark Loretta playing a part in it. Loretta languished for years on some pretty terrible Brewer teams, so it's nice to see karma catching up with him.

I mentioned Trevor Hoffman's birthday above, but today birthday wishes also go out to Damian Miller, who turns 40.

Drink up.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

Browse more photos »

I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

The Worst Brewers Seasons Hitting With RISP

TheJay — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:00:33 -0000

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Watching J.J. Hardy Hit

It may sound strange following a 1-5 homestand in which the team hit a measly .116 with runners in scoring position, but the Brewers actually haven't been that bad with RISP this year. In fact, they're a hair above average both in the NL and for all of MLB. Their performance with RISP mirrors their hitting overall: slightly above average at getting on base and a little more above average in power.

As with all team batting numbers, some players inflate the average and some bring it down. The usual suspects are atop the team leaderboard: Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee are cleaning up with RISP, while Felipe Lopez and Ryan Braun are close behind. Craig Counsell is sitting right at the team average. Jason Kendall is contributing at a rate slightly below his overall numbers, which is to say he isn't doing much at all. However, there is one Brewer struggling even more than Kendall with runners on second or third: J.J. Hardy.

Through yesterday's game, J.J. Hardy is hitting .190/.272/.241 in 137 plate appearances with RISP in 2009. His 137 PA is good for fourth-most on the team, behind Fielder, Braun, and Cameron. He is one of only ten major leaguers to bat 100 times with runners in scoring position this season and put up an OPS under .600. For the record: the others are Robinson Cano, Ivan Rodriguez, Dioner Navarro, Emilio Bonifacio, the aforementioned Kendall, Rick Ankiel, Vernon Wells, Rafael Furcal, and Mike Fontenot. This isn't new for Hardy, either. Last year he sputtered to a .609 OPS in 160 plate appearances. He has matched his 2008 RISP RBI total in 23 fewer tries, though, so it's not all bad in 2009.

Now, it's not with an eye to sullying Hardy's reputation even further that I'm posting all this. Consider, for example, that the past two seasons have totaled fewer than 400 plate appearances with RISP. That's about four months' worth of at bats. Certainly it's not enough to judge a player's ability. Consider also his work with RISP in his first three seasons: a robust .298/.393/.440 line. For whatever reason, the last two seasons have not been kind to Hardy with runners on second or third. Maybe the baseball gods don't like soap operas. Who knows.

Whatever the reason, it doesn't take away from the fact his season in 2009 has been historic. If he doesn't play another game this season, he would finish with the third-worst OPS with RISP in a season in team history, minimum 100 plate appearances.

Name	Year	PA	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chad Moeller	2004	108	20	.146	.224	.219	.443
Rick Auerbach	1972	135	24	.193	.276	.210	.486
J.J. Hardy	2009	137	35	.190	.272	.241	.513
Brady Clark	2006	113	20	.202	.286	.234	.520
Mike Ferraro	1972	104	24	.239	.282	.250	.532
Gerald Williams	1997	144	28	.205	.248	.283	.532
Tim Johnson	1973	121	29	.241	.283	.250	.533
Gary Sheffield	1989	111	26	.219	.284	.260	.545
Jim Gantner	1986	137	31	.198	.284	.261	.545
Eric Young	2002	115	25	.189	.277	.274	.550

I guess we know now why the 1972 team was hard up for runs. I included RBI because I think it's interesting that Hardy has already beaten everyone on this list. The next-lowest OPS for someone with 35 or more RBI is Charlie Moore's .567 in 1982.

Tim Johnson's appearance brings up another interesting point. Baseball-reference has something called tOPS+ for each player's splits. It basically compares his OPS in the split to his overall OPS. Like OPS+, anything over 100 means he did better in that split than overall. Johnson actually had a 112 tOPS+ for that anemic 1973 performance with RISP. He was just an awful hitter. He also had a pretty strange ending to his managerial stint with Toronto.

You may suspect that Hardy shows up on a tOPS+ leaderboard as well. You would be correct. In fact, he shows up twice on the list of 10 worst seasons with RISP in terms of tOPS+. I guess a better way to say it would be that these guys suddenly lost their ability to hit when runners were on second or third.

Name	Year	PA	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	tOPS+
Johnny Briggs	1972	129	41	.193	.260	.339	.599	49
Brady Clark	2006	113	20	.202	.286	.234	.520	52
J.J. Hardy	2008	160	35	.221	.308	.301	.609	53
Eric Young	2002	115	25	.189	.277	.274	.550	56
Sixto Lezcano	1977	121	22	.194	.339	.306	.645	56
Chad Moeller	2004	108	20	.146	.224	.219	.443	57
J.J. Hardy	2009	137	35	.190	.272	.241	.513	59
Damian Miller	2005	129	29	.182	.344	.242	.586	60
Jim Gantner	1986	137	31	.198	.284	.261	.545	61
Dave Nilsson	1997	179	52	.238	.318	.325	.643	63

Hardy still has the better part of a month (albeit not starting consistently) to work his way off these lists. A brief hot streak should do the trick, though it's hard to see how he could reverse his recent futility that drastically. Then again, stranger things have happened. Since it seems obvious Hardy will not be back in Milwaukee in 2010, it will be interesting to see if a change of scenery and coaching staff brings his performance with runners in scoring position back in line with his overall totals.

Cubs Lose Again. Jim Hendry And Lou Piniella: This Is Your Fault

Al — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 13:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

D-Lee homers again. Didn't matter.

Browse more photos »

Many of us thought, at least, that the Cubs playing a bad San Diego Padres team this week could help them get back into the NL Central or wild card race.

Not so far, anyway; The Cubs lost 6-3 to the Padres, have not won in five tries in San Diego this season, and stayed six games behind the Cardinals, who lost to the Dodgers 7-3.

This recap isn't going to be much about last night's game, which was lost despite a pretty good outing from Ryan Dempster and Derrek Lee's 24th HR. Instead, I'm going to say "J'accuse" at team management, because it's necessary. We have been over the many failures of this team on this site numerous times, but I thought it would be instructive to go over all of them in one place, right here, and to point fingers -- yes, I want to point fingers -- at the two men most responsible for this debacle: Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella.

The Cubs lost their 2008 postseason series in a sweep to the Dodgers and looked bad doing it. In so doing, LA used not a single lefthanded pitcher. Thus, manager Lou Piniella declared (perhaps not in these exact words, but the message was clear): "We're not lefthanded enough."

Thus armed with a mission from his field manager, Jim Hendry set out to make the team more lefthanded, and to make other adjustments.

He set his eyes on a lefthanded hitting, power-hitting, run-producer for the middle of the lineup, since his previous year's acquisition to do just that (Kosuke Fukudome) had failed at the task. In order to acquire one, it would be necessary to clear off some contract space, because there would not be an unlimited 2009 budget. Therefore, a useful fifth starter (Jason Marquis) and a valuable hitter (Mark DeRosa) were traded and Milton Bradley was acquired. This created holes in the rotation and offense, and Bradley was paid far more than a couple of the alternatives (Raul Ibanez and Bobby Abreu) would have commanded had Hendry waited a while. Had he done so, he might have been able to sign Abreu and keep DeRosa. Though Bradley is a useful player, he has not done what Piniella and Hendry expected, and that has left holes in the offense most of the year until Lou finally figured out that Bradley could contribute batting second.

It was further decided that last year's closer, Kerry Wood, should go get more money from another team (his "reward") instead of offering him arbitration to stay, and another closer, Kevin Gregg, was acquired by trade. We all know how that worked out. While Wood has not had a good year in Cleveland, it is impossible to know how Wood, whose family lives here and who has a strong emotional connection to the Cubs, would have done in another year on the North Side. He has remained healthy -- in fact, his only injury last year was not related to his elbow trouble -- and certainly would have been a better choice than Gregg, who, although he did have a couple of decent months, has been pretty bad.

The trade of DeRosa led to the signing of Aaron Miles, who we were told would replace DeRo as a versatile bench player. He has been nothing short of awful. For those who will call me a "DeRomantic", I point out simply this: he has had a good year with Cleveland and St. Louis, and would have been a useful fill-in while Aramis Ramirez was out.

Further, there is the issue of team leadership. This is an unmeasurable factor that drives statistically-oriented people nuts; however, I have absolutely no doubt that it exists and it does matter. DeRosa and Wood were team leaders and DeRo's positive clubhouse presence was noted by several Cardinals within days of his acquisition. Without those two, this team has no leadership. In that sense, I compare it to the 2004 team, which lost its 2003 leaders -- Damian Miller and Eric Karros -- for somewhat similar reasons. Miller was dumped, despite the fact that the pitching staff loved him, for Michael Barrett because Hendry thought a catcher should hit better than Miller, who had a bad offensive season in '03. About the only off-season move that truly worked was letting Henry Blanco walk and naming Koyie Hill backup catcher. With Geovany Soto not hitting and injured (and how you let a guy like that show up as out of shape as he was is beyond me), can you imagine where the Cubs would be if Blanco had been his backup this year? Hill caught 26 games in a row and the Cubs went 16-10, despite Hill hitting only .194 in those games.

Hendry and Piniella, of course, are not responsible for the large number of injuries that have hit this team -- but Hendry, at least, IS responsible for not putting together a roster that could take injury depletion better. There is no doubt that standing pat on a playoff team is not wise -- the Cubs did it in 1999 with their '98 wild card team and failed miserably. However, I maintain my position that Hendry took a 97-win team that simply went cold for three bad days at the worst possible time and blew it up for the wrong reason.

Then there's the matter of Lou looking like a lost little boy most of the time this year. He's nearly fallen asleep at the wheel a couple of times -- last week's failure to have John Grabow warming up with the three best LH hitters in the NL due up and Carlos Marmol walking the world was inexcusable. (And now he wants to make Marmol the closer? I shake my head in dismay.) Is it because Lou's embarrassed that he asked for this kind of team and it's failing? Or is he just past his managerial prime and wants to go home?

The strange thing is, despite all of this, this flawed, injured team still has time to make up a six-game division (or five-game wild card) deficit. There are still good and talented players on this Cubs team who are playing below their potential. They need to start winning the games they ought to, against bad teams like the Padres. Start tonight, please. I haven't given up yet, so don't you either. Go Cubs.

Brewer WAR Lords: Catcher

KLSnow — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:15:09 -0000

Thanks to Beyond the Box Score's idea, this is Part 1 in a six part series identifying the best position players in Brewer history, ranked by their Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

Today, we start with the catchers. All told, seventeen catchers were considered. For whatever it's worth, Chad Moeller finished 17th out of 17 in all three criteria. All WAR totals listed only include seasons spent primarily as a catcher while playing for the Brewers. Here are the top five:

1. Darrell Porter

Career WAR: 10.5 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 10.3 (1st)
Top Five Seasons: 10.9 (1st)

Porter spent the first six seasons of his career in a Brewer uniform. He was the AL's youngest player when he made his debut in 1971 at age 19 and played his last game as a Brewer in 1976 at age 24, before playing 11 more seasons as a Royal, Cardinal and Ranger. Porter was an All Star in 1974, but his best season as a Brewer was 1975, when he hit .232/.371/.418 and was worth 3.8 wins above replacement.

2. B.J. Surhoff

Career WAR: 10.2 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 7.8 (3rd)
Top Five Seasons: 9.9 (2nd)

Surhoff debuted as a Brewer in 1987 and spent his first six seasons behind the plate before moving to third base. During those six seasons he posted a WAR over 2 three times. Surhoff caught 704 games as a Brewer. All told, he played in 2313 games over 19 big league seasons.

3. Ted Simmons

Career WAR: 7.7 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 8.1 (2nd)
Top Five Seasons: 7.7 (3rd) One could make an argument for Simmons' inclusion in the Baseball Hall of Fame. As a Brewer, he spent five seasons, including two excellent ones in 1982 and 1983, where he was worth a combined 7.1 wins. Simmons was an eight-time All Star, including twice as a Brewer. He started the All Star game in 1983.

4. Ellie Rodriguez

Career WAR: 6.8 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.8 (4th)
Top Five Seasons: 6.8 (4th)

Rodriguez was the Brewers primary catcher from 1971-1973, and the fact that he ranks this high on the list should tell you something about how few truly great catchers the Brewers have had. Rodriguez's best season was 1972, when he posted a .285/.382/.352 line and was worth 3.4 wins. Rodriguez played nine big league seasons as a Yankee, Royal, Brewer, Angel and Dodger.

5. Charlie Moore

Career WAR: 6.6 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.9 (6th)
Top Five Seasons: 5.5 (5th)

Fourteen of Moore's 15 big league seasons were spent with the Brewers, including 11 as a catcher. Moore never posted a season with a WAR over 2, but had five over 1 while catching 894 games.

Rounding out the top ten:

Pos.	Catcher	Career War	Rank	Top 3	Rank	Top 5	Rank
6.	Dave Nilsson	5.1	6	4.5	5	5.1	6
7.	Bill Schroeder	2.3	8	3.3	7	2.8	7
8.	Charlie O'Brien	2.5	7	2.6	8	2.5	8
9.	Jason Kendall	2	9	2	9	2	9
10.	Henry Blanco	1.4	10	1.4	10	1.4	10

Monday: First base/DH