SB Nation - Gabe Gross

Gabe Gross Non-Tendered

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:08:08 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Over the period of the last 18 or so months, Gabe Gross has been one of my favorite players.

I feel no shame in typing that sentence and I would hope you feel no shame for me. It wasn't a tools thing - although Gross' power, plate discipline, range, and arm rate out well - or a white thing. No, it was part indie rock syndrome and part appreciation for the average things in life. Mostly, the Gross fandom was a personal mark of maturation and sophistication as a baseball fan.

My old self would've hated Gross. Despite placing highly on prospect lists of days gone by, he didn't bleed athleticism. He hit home runs and got on base, but not enough. And defense? Who cares? He's a corner outfielder; if they ain't hitting bombs then they need to be gone. I was dumb, no question. I grew up watching a lot of Sammy Sosa and everyone loved him.

Over time, specifically the last two and a half years, my appreciation and understanding of what defense means to winning ballgames has changed. When the Rays acquired Gross, I had no defensive metric to turn to. UZR wasn't public - remember those days? - no Bill James Online account to check, little knowledge of PMR, and if I knew about the Fans Scouting Report, I wasn't smart enough to look for it. The Rays were only months removed from Delmon Young in right field who threw out a ton of baserunners. Even Ichiro going to third. Vladimir Guerrero also threw out runners and he was highly praised, so after Gross threw a few out, I was stoked. Gross' range quickly eclipsed either of those, and the disparity between Jonny Gomes and Gross was stunning.

Gross won some general fans over too. I promise you that 90% of them won't remember him in three years time, but he did it with well-timed home runs. He then lost many a fan with his playoff defense, specifically in Fenway - most of them forget the home run he robbed early in the third game of the American League Divisional Series - which lead to Boston forcing a game six.

Many won't remember how well Gross hit for the majority of this season. A scorching June, where Gross got on base at a 44.1% clip lead to consecutive sub-.700 OPS months, then, in his final 44 plate appearances, an embarrassing .075/.116/.100 line saw his seasonal work flushed down the drain. I'm sure it's not the way he wanted to go out, and hell, it's not how I wanted him to go out either.

Matt Joyce is going to be a thrill to watch. He's probably a better overall player than Gross, definitely a better power hitter. He'll do well for himself with fan base popularity off that and his local roots. You won't see FanPosts on this site calling for his release after a bad month, or people making wisecracks about how awful he is following a strikeout. No, I think Matt Joyce is going to be just fine. And so will Gross. He's a worthwhile player and he's going to land on someone's roster between now and spring.

Maybe one day, Gross will be appreciated for his value to the Rays these past two seasons. Even if he's not, I hope he realizes that there is no shame in being a league average player. I also hope he cherishes that home run he hit off Matt Thornton, or the long fly against Eduardo Mujica. Or maybe, that game in Oakland earlier this year where he threw a runner out at home then hit a bomb shortly thereafter. Hopefully he remembers all those times he chased down a ball in the gap, almost colliding with the intruding B.J. Upton, or that time he camped under a ball at the warning track that others would've caught in more spectacular fashion, or when he drew a walk against a rolling pitcher. That's the quintessential Gabe Gross: silently valuable

Thanks for the memories and lessons, Gabe, come visit some time soon.

Update: Per RotoWorld, Cormier gets $1.2M next year, and apparently Navarro is back for $2.1M. Yay?

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:30:33 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Jeff Suppan reacts after walking in three runs during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Cubs. Searching for someone who will take his contract could be one of the Brewers' focal points this week.

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Some things to read while the blue socks tie your look together.

All eyes turn to Indianapolis this week, as the Winter Meetings start today. While there, Brewer management would most likely jump at any chance to unload the contract of Jeff Suppan. Tom H. floated the idea of a Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, while Jorge Says No! wonders if Jeff Suppan and prospects for Gil Meche makes sense (Also noted in Rumorville). For whatever it's worth, the Meche deal is probably unlikely unless one of the Brewers' top prospects is involved. Apparently the Mets have also contacted the Royals to ask about him.

Other pre-meeting buzz:

Tom H. has a winter meeting preview with some stuff you've heard before and a Doug Melvin complaint about cost uncertainty.
Steve Henson of Yahoo says the Brewers are more likely to look for free agents than trades to fill the gaps in their rotation and bench.
Adam McCalvy has a look at some of the prospects that could be mentioned if the Brewers decide to make a deal, but acknowledges the fact that the Brewers don't have the organizational depth to make a major splash via that route.
Apparently Edwin Jackson, one trade candidate the Brewers have expressed interest in, could find a new home soon.
Meanwhile, Yahoo is reporting that multiple teams are interested in Doug Davis, but the only candidate they're naming at this point is the Crew.

If you weren't around over the weekend, Noah did a great job in the weekend Mug of covering reaction to the Gregg Zaun deal. Here are a few more nuggets on Zaun I spotted this morning:

Adam McCalvy tweeted that Zaun's deal includes $600,000 in incentives tied to games started, which could push the total guaranteed value up to $2.75 million if Ken Macha is unwilling to let one of the young guys play.
Fire Doug Melvin is not excited about the decision to guarantee Zaun the starting job.

The Zaun move inspired Casa de Machado to throw in the towel for 2010, complete with this quote:

I think are chances in 2010 are slim to none.

It's like this picture and The Iron Sheik's Twitter all rolled in to one. (h/t to the Former Hacks for the Sheik link)

I know at least some of you attended the Brewer Clubhouse Sale over the weekend. Did you find anything good? Did you show up in this WISN story?

Just one transaction note today:

Indians: Signed former Twin Brian Buscher to a minor league deal.

Some free agent deals might get done at the Winter Meetings this week, but don't expect John Lackey to be one of them: Lackey is believed to be seeking $17 million+ per year for at least six years, and it'll take some time for his price to fall back into a range that isn't laughable.

Six years and $102 million would probably earn Lackey honorable mention on Big League Stew's list of the worst ten contracts of the 2000s. Click that link if you'd like to feel better about the Brewer tenure of Doug Melvin: All ten contracts mentioned are clearly worse than Jeff Suppan's deal.

Looking for a buy-low rotation candidate? Diamond Notes mentions the Dodgers are expected to have interest in Chien-Ming Wang, when/if the Yankees announce their decision to non-tender him for next season. Assuming the price is right, one would think the Brewers might be interested too.

Speaking of the Dodgers, they're continuing to cut costs by attempting to deal George Sherrill.

On this day in 2005, the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay (along with Ty Taubenheim) to the Blue Jays for David Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson, clearing the way for Prince Fielder to take over at first base in 2006. Overbay has hit .275/.356/.449 over four seasons as a Blue Jay.

On this day in 2007, the Brewers acquired Salomon Torres from the Pirates for two minor leaguers. Torres posted a 3.49 ERA and saved 28 games for the 2008 Brewers.

Happy birthday today to Jim Austin, who posted a 3.06 ERA while making 83 relief appearances as a Brewer between 1991 and 1993, and turns 46.

Oh, and it looks like winter is now upon us, so it may be time to bust out the solar powered hat and gloves. Or just stay home and watch the Pride and Prejudice with Zombies miniseries. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

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As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce Looks Ready For Starring Role

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce, right, receives congratulations from teammate Gabe Gross. Now, he figures to replace Gross as the teams rightfielder.

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Thanks to baseball economics, Matt Joyce no longer figures to be left out of the right field equation. While some of us thought Joyce would have a chance to be the Rays right fielder in 2009, Gabe Gross and his ~$1 million salary proved to be an average alternative while saving the Rays a year of Joyce's service time . With Gross up for a raise in arbitration in the neighborhood of $2 million, it looks like the economic tables have turned.

If Joyce turns out to be the next Gabe Gross (average hitter + above average fielder) the Rays will have a decent platoon player on their hands. However, looking at some of his minor league numbers, there is reason to believe that Joyce will be quite the improvement.

In nearly 300 MLB plate appearances in 2008, Matt Joyce showed that his power is legit. We saw that briefly here as he blasted three home runs playing sporadically over 11 games for the Rays. Joyce continued to flash that power in Durham where he slugged .482 and carried an ISO of .209 in 493 plate appearances. The power numbers are nice, but there were other pleasant surprises from Joyce in 2009.

Joyce has gotten on-base at a decent clip, but only once did he have an OBP over .340 during the last three seasons. In 2009, his OBP jumped to .373 thanks to an improved batting eye. He has always been a 10% walk guy, but in 2009 his improved to 13.8%. While walking more, he cut down his K% from 31.0% (2008 AAA numbers) to 21.9% (2009 AAA numbers).

Initially, it seems that Joyce will be paired up in a platoon with Gabe Kapler. We all know Kapler crushes LHP and one of the question marks concerning Joyce was his ability to handle south paws. If his 2009 numbers are any indication, then Joyce will do just fine. Of course, these are minor league numbers, but Joyce hit .273/.345/.508 against lefties in nearly 150 plate appearances. Kapler is the safety net, but I'm sure the Rays will try and see if Joyce can replicate those numbers at the next level.

Defensively, we've heard good things about Joyce. He projects as an average fielder at worst and has the potential to be above average in the corner. Joyce played nearly as much center field as he did right in his brief stint with the Rays, but was a +11 right fielder in the minor leagues. For those not familiar with the minor league defensive metric Totalzone, it's pretty simple; 0 is average, +10 is well above average. If Joyce can be a +5 in the Majors, I think we'll be happy.

The plan hasn't moved as quickly as some of us had hoped, but Joyce won't have that "getting used to playing in the majors" hurdle that most young players face. Sure, he is projected to be a platoon player at first, but if the numbers continue to pile up and he glows like a lightsaber then maybe a star will be born; clap for him.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:40:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I'm hoping we'll have a picture of Rick Peterson without a Mets hat soon.

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Some things to read while earning your cat-holding privileges.

The Brewers made Rick Peterson's hiring official yesterday, and he immediately turned his sights to Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

Peterson also tweeted about his new gig, and was welcomed into the fold by Seth McClung (more on McClung later today). Miller Park Drunk also welcomed Peterson, and started him off with a cheat sheet on Brewer pitchers.

Now, perhaps the Brewers will get started on the task of acquiring some pitchers for Peterson to coach. Dave Cameron of USS Mariner has the Brewers trading J.J. Hardy to the M's for Brandon Morrow, and Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases has a hypothetical trade sending Prince Fielder to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bowden. Meanwhile, over in Speculationville, Roguejim wonders if J.J. Hardy might be a fit for the Pirates.

Could Jody Gerut end up as a bargaining chip in a trade? Amazin' Avenue lists him as a player who may be undervalued this winter due to a low BABIP in 2009. Gerut posted a .230/.279/.376 line last season, but hit a much more respectable .272/.341/.447 in August and September.

Wherever pitching help might come from, there doesn't appear to be much of it on the horizon in the minors. Baseball America has their final minor league pitching leaderboards up, and the only Brewer mentioned (Evan Frederickson) is among the leaders in a category you don't want to lead (walks allowed). Frederickson, a sandwich pick in the 2008 draft, walked 82 batters in 97.1 innings for Wisconsin this season, and has posted a 5.22 ERA in the minors.

Perhaps Josh Butler will be the exception, though: After playing all over the minors and in the majors this season, Butler is blogging from the AFL (FanShot) His first post covers his wild season, AFL teammates, food and weather.

We've covered the list of reasons why Felipe Lopez should be offered arbitration and the opportunity to return, but Miller Park Drunk has the counterpoint: the list of reasons why Lopez doesn't fit into the Brewers' plans and will almost certainly not be back.

Around baseball:

Braves: Pitchers Buddy Carlyle, Jorge Campillo and Vladimir Nunez have been removed from the 40-man roster and will become free agents. (h/t Rowland's Office)
Mets: Released reliever Ken Takahashi.
Pirates: Reliever Chris Bootcheck rejected an outright assignment and is now a free agent.

Because of the arbitrary nature of the cutoff line for Super 2 players, there's good news for the Diamondbacks and bad news for the Giants today. Slugger Mark Reynolds fell three days short of the service time required to be a Super 2, will not be arbitration eligible and will remain under team control for four more seasons. Tim Lincecum, on the other hand, was over the cutoff by about a week and will be arbitration eligible this offseason.

Three managerial vacancies remain, but at least one team has eliminated Ned Yost from contention: The Indians are believed to be conducting second interviews with four candidates, but Yost is not one of them. Manny Acta is the only finalist for the Indians' job that is also a candidate for the Astros' job.

Over the last few seasons, baseball has shifted heavily toward emphasizing young players and prospects, but here's a reminder on the importance of not looking too far ahead: Lookout Landing has a list of 44 players who appeared for the Mariners in 2008. Less than two full years later, only ten of them are still with the organization. Things can change pretty fast.

Livan Hernandez spent the end of the 2009 season with the Nationals, and despite the fact that he's long past the prime of his career, he'll likely be looking for work again this offseason, because he needs the paycheck. Hernandez reportedly has serious financial issues that could lead to the foreclosure of his home in Miami.

Unfortunately, despite the fact that the postseason has had some pretty exciting games and interesting storylines, the top story once again is terrible umpiring, and a call Big League Stew is calling "the worst call of all time." I keep hoping that maybe, someday, Major League Baseball will be shamed into action on this issue, and do something to either correct inept umpires or put effective umpires in their place. It's likely a pipe dream.

I've spent a fair amount of time lately discussing the Arizona Fall League, partly because there's not much baseball being played lately but also because I find it fascinating. If you're having a hard time getting into it, maybe you should check out Geoff Young's look back at the 2001 AFL, which featured a bunch of future productive major leaguers...and Bill Hall.

Speaking of prospects and development, Derrick Goold has a nice conversation starter about age as it relates to prospects, and when one becomes too old to be considered one (h/t BBTF). In last year's Community Prospect Rankings, we ranked a couple of older players (Brad Nelson and Tim Dillard), and I'm guessing Adam Heether might sneak into this year's list as well.

Finally, this link isn't really baseball related, but I'm dropping it in today because I think it's important, and if you or someone you know coaches youth or high school sports I hope you'll read it: Driveline Mechanics has a look at overtraining in high school sports and its consequences.

Happy birthday today to Gabe Gross, who posted a .797 OPS over 2+ seasons as a Brewer and turns 30 today, and to Franklin Stubbs, who was virtually worthless as a Brewer and turns 49.

Drink up.

Zorilla Fever: Catch It! Or, How Good is Ben Zobrist?

devil_fingers — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist skips around the bases like a girl after hitting a grand slam off Kansas City Royals starter Brian Bannister-Posnanski during the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 3, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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I was going to do somethig on BaseRuns this week, then I realized that it was boring. Maybe I'll make it more interesting after the season is over. In the meantime, I thought I'd add a bit more wood to the Ben Zobrist On Fire Bandwagon (how's that for a poorly mixed metaphor?). He went from utility guy to taking Akinori Iwamura's gig. He went from fill-in middle infielder to legit AL MVP candidate (Ken Rosenthal's gonna love this). He's even got a cool nickname.

We all know, of course, that current performance does not equal true talent, right? I mean, clearly, Zobrist is good, but 7.9 WAR (as of this writing) good? Probably not. It's not clear where Zobrist will play on the field next season with Jason Bartlett being trade bait, Akinori Iwamura's option situation, and exactly what the Rays are thinking for right field between Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler (okay, the latter half of the Grapler platoon is probably gone), and Matt Joyce (remember him?). But it's pretty clear that he's going to play somewhere for the Rays.

I'll try to put aside the bitterness of having kept him for my 2007 fantasy team that also included Shin-Soo Choo, they both sucked, so I let them go. Only to have them be picked up during the 2008 season by others... and so on Ugh. So let's get back to d_f's crappy "true talent" machine and see what it pumps out for Zorilla!

Ben Zobrist

#18 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: May 26, 1981

Hitting:(+basestealing): As usual, we'll use a variation on the method suggested in The Book for estimating a players true offensive talent -- regressing his wOBA (this version from FanGraphs including steals) for each major-league season against 200 PA of league average. In brief appearances in 2006 and 2007, Zobrist was helpless at the plate, posting wOBAs of .243 and .180, respectively. However, toward the end of 2008, Zobirst got called up and put up a very good .364 wOBA in 227 PA. Given his previous performance in both the majors and minors, that appeared to be a fluke, but he started 2009 on fire, and with Iwamura's injury, Zorilla got enough playing time to silence the doubters with a (as of the moment) .399 wOBA over 578 PA. Regressing each season, doing a weighted average, and adding a slightly age adjustment gives us a current true talent level of a .358 wOBA, which translates to about 17 runs above average over 700 PA.

Fielding: Zobrist came up as a SS, and mostly played there prior to 2009 in the majors. He's played all over this season, putting up great UZR numbers at both 2B and RF. Since he spent most of his time this season at 2B, and it seems likely (to me, at least) that he'll be starting there in 2010, we'll try to get a sense of his talent there. Getting a good projection is tough, considering how little time he spent there in the majors prior to 2009. So what I've done is to take his 2009 2B UZR/150, then add in his SS numbers from the prior season while adding 5 to the SS numbers to account for the relative difficulty of that position. It's not perfect, but it's decent. Zobrist has an outstanding +24.1 UZR/150 at 2B so far this season, but his prior ratings at SS were less than impressive (in small sample sizes). There's plenty of regression, and I incorporate speed score into that for outfielders and also middle infielders, although I'm not sure if I'll continue that for MIs. I also included data from the Fans Scouting Report. This was particularly helpful because it allowed me to get a sense of Zobrist's skills relative to 2B even in the seasons when he was playing mostly SS. The Fans were less impressed, and my translations rate him at 4.2, -11.2, -7.0, and +3 runs at 2B from 2006-2009. Given the relative lack of data, I used 50% regressed UZR and 50% Fans Scouting Report. The final result was that Zobrist projects as about a +2 defender at 2B.

Baserunning: Using EqBRR from Baseball Prospectus (minus steals since that's included in wOBA), Zobrist wasn't really that bad or good. There's such a small sample that everything is heavily regressed. Let's call it average for now.

Adding it all up: +17 hitting +2 fielding +2.5 positional adjustment +25 AL replacement level = 46.5 times 85% playing time = about a 4.0 WAR player. Not bad for a guy making the minimum who, prior to this season, projected as a utility man who was a seeming thrown-in when the Rays traded away the immortal Aubrey Huff.

it's still hard to believe, given the out-of-seemingly-nowhere monster seasons had by both Zobrist and the previously-discussed Jason Bartlett, that the Rays aren't in the playoff hunt. But they'll be back. Even if he doesn't put up another Mauer/Pujols-esque season next year (and it's likely he won't), the Rays are in great shape with Zorilla wherever they end up playing him.

Update: Thanks to MGL's comment below, I finally got off my butt and corrected how my spreadsheet is set up (I'd prefer to do this in my database which has a more sophisticated [if still crude] Marcels-esque script in it, but it uses baseball databank, which understandably isn't updated in season... if FanGraphs would add current player age to their leaderboards, however... pretty please, Mr. Appleman? Right after you port the ap to BlackBerry?). Anyway, I don't know how badly this skew some earlier stuff, but long story short: Zobrist projects as more of a .348 wOBA guy, or +11/700. So he's closer to 3.5 WAR player at 2B. I leave the above unaltered as a testimony to my sloth, stupidity, and what half-assed projections can do.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:15:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jason Kendall is congratulated by J.J. Hardy as he crosses home plate after hitting a ninth inning three-run home run Tuesday.

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Some things to read while improving your dental hygiene.

If you went to bed early last night (or simply fell asleep on the couch, as I almost did), you missed one of the season's most unlikely events: a ninth inning, game-tying three run home run from Jason Kendall, just his second of the season and just the second home run he's hit away from Minute Maid Park since August 15 of 2007. The blast raised his slugging percentage over .300 on the season and gave the Brewers new life, even if it only lasted for two innings.

The home run was cool, but it still wasn't enough to make Kendall a viable option as a starting catcher next season. Brewers Daily has a list of potential free agents who could take his place.

Casey McGehee's meeting with a specialist Monday confirmed what the Brewers suspected: He will undergo arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove some loose bodies in his knee (FanShot). He seems reluctant to undergo the procedure and worried about the problem returning, but is scheduled to meet with team doctor William Raasch this week to discuss it further. Meanwhile, the Brewers are advocating for McGehee to be Rookie of the Year.

Also noted in that story: Mike Burns' MRI revealed damage to his labrum, and he's still in Milwaukee and likely done for the season. Frank Catalanotto is also not with the team in Colorado: he left the team before the trip due to a death in the family. He'll miss the Colorado series but might return for the final series this weekend.

Meanwhile, Jeff Suppan returns to the mound tonight for his final start of the season, and hopes to finish strong. Dave Bush might have been a candidate to have his final start skipped, but with Burns still out and Josh Butler having been sent home, he'll get one more start on Saturday.

If you're having a hard time getting excited for these final few games, Tyler Maas has some reasons for you to care. If nothing else, it's still baseball, and you're going to spend October-February missing it.

Here are some milestones to watch for, if nothing else: Ryan Braun needs six hits over five games to become just the fourth Brewer to reach 200 hits in a season, and as Seamheads notes, Prince Fielder is just a few points short of joining him in the .300-30-100 club. Assuming Fielder plays all of the remaining games and gets four ABs in each, he'd need to go 9-for-20 to reach .300.

How incredible has Trevor Hoffman been this season? MLB Trade Rumors has a look at closers who will be free agents this offseason, and Hoffman is clearly having the best season, leading free agents-to-be in ERA, BB/9, Hits/9, saves and fewest pitches thrown.

If you're looking for a reason why Brewer pitchers are so hittable this season, you could blame the fact that they're dead last in baseball in average velocity. With that said, the Angels, Twins, Phillies and Cardinals are all also ranked in the 20s, so maybe it's not everything.

On Power Rankings and whatnot:

WhatifSports dropped the Brewers one spot to #17.
The Hardball Times has the Brewers at #19.
Andy Seiler has the Brewers drafting 14th in his 2010 draft projection. There's little to no risk of the Brewers dropping too far by winning this week: The next team behind them is the Mariners, who are 4 games better than the Crew.

Today's (mostly) non-Brewers section has something for everyone:

Do you love complaining about the Brewers and also find the act of composing a haiku to be strangely relaxing? If so, Babes Love Baseball has a contest for you.
Do you enjoy spending seven minutes trying to force your brain to work, then banging your head against the desk when you miss obvious answers? Sporcle challenges you to name the wins leaders from the 1990s. (I got 12/24, which will almost certainly win the "before 7 am" division.)
Do you enjoy pointless speculation about a player whose future won't be determined for months? DRaysBay thinks the Rays may non-tender Gabe Gross this offseason.
Are you looking for an alternative to the real Hall of Fame, as an opportunity to continue to debate the merits of a player whose Hall eligibility has passed? More Hardball has inducted Ted Simmons into theirs.
Are you looking for an opportunity to feel better about your pathetic life by doing something small to improve someone else's? Miller Park Drunk wants you to help replace someone's stolen grill.

I mentioned Rob Deer's 49th birthday yesterday, but my tribute was nothing compared to this one at The Daily Something. As such, I feel perfectly comfortable using their link to cover the fact that I don't have any Brewer birthdays today.

In fact, that's all I have for you today, unless you'd like to witness The Running of the Quevedo.

Drink up.

Gabe Gross is the Invisible Man; Gross Becomes Non-Tender Candidate

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Maybe Gabe Gross just misses Scott Kazmir?

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The sad reality of this shuffling roster game we play is sometimes you have to say good-bye to valuable pieces of the puzzle that have become expendable either because of their own salary or other cheaper viable options. Akinori Iwamura most likely will be one of those players. Gabe Gross is likely to be another.

For those of you who haven't noticed Gabe Gross is still an active member of the Rays roster. However, with Iwamura's return and Ben Zobrist's ability to play an above average right field, Gross has become the invisible man. Iwamura and Zobrist are part of the reason Gross has been riding the pine, but his play at the plate hasn't helped his case either.

Gross got off to a stellar start in 2009. In his first 165 plate appearances he hit .286/.394/.443. With that line and his defense, Gross was on his way to a 3 WAR season. Despite that good start, things have fallen apart for him. Over his last 152 plate appearances he is hitting just .180/.272/.286 and he's defense has suffered as well. While he is still a plus defender, a 6.4 UZR isn't as sparkling as the 11.8 he put up in 2008 especially with a recent batting line that rivals Dioner Navarro.

Gross will be arb2 eligible this off-season. Given the fact that he earned $1.255 million dollars this season, and his lack of production this year, Gross is a prime non tender candidate. This doesn't mean he isn't valuable. Average is still good except when it becomes expensive. He has given the Rays $3.8 million dollars of production in ‘09, but his value doesn't match the Rays salary structure. With Matt Joyce available and ready to take over at the same position with a similar, and better, set of skills for around 1/4 of the cost it's just smart business.

Game 1: Pedroia's Homer the Difference, Sox top Rays 3-1

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:32:36 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Victor Martinez, right, tags out Tampa Bay Rays' Gabe Gross at home plate in the seventh inning of the first game of a baseball doubleheader, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Clay Buchholz threw 7 strong innings, taking only 97 pitches to record 21 outs, giving up 5 hits, 3 walks, and an earned run while recording 5 strikeouts. The only earned run was scored on an infield single by Jason Bartlett. Dustin Pedroia attempted an off-balance throw to first, but didn't have any real shot at getting the out. The ball would briefly get away from Casey Kotchman, and Gabe Gross would try to score from second, but a strong throw by Kotchman and a great block by Victor Martinez would cut him down.

Unfortunately for Clay's record, the Sox didn't do much better against Matt Garza for the first 7 innings, scoring only one run in the 6th when Victor Martinez singled in Dustin Pedroia, who had doubled high off the monster. It wasn't until the 8th that the Sox did any serious damage, as David Ortiz, pinch hitting for Nick Green, doubled over the head of right fielder Gabe Gross. Joey Gathright would pinch run, but his speed wouldn't be needed as Dustin Pedroia connected for his second hit of the game, and 13th home run of the season, depositing Garza's 2-0 fastball into the bullpen.

Hideki Okajima would pitch a perfect 8th, and Jonathan Papelbon closed out the game, allowing an infield hit to Akinori Iwamura but otherwise striking out the side.

The Red Sox will have Jon Lester on the mound for the second part of the double-header. The Rays respond with James Shields, who would have faced Lester had the game on Friday gone off as planned. Lester had a shaky start in the first on Friday, loading the bases with 1 out before the game was called due to rain. Hopefully he can take advantage of his clean slate tonight.

Just Call Him Average Willy Aybar

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:00:19 -0000

by Reinhold Matay - AP

6 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Willy Aybar reacts after crossing the plate following a solo home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in St. Petersburg, Fla., Wednesday, June 10, 2009. The Rays won 9-5. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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Less than 12 months ago Willy Aybar was crowned by Dave Cameron, as well as many others, the BBIMLB or the best backup in Major League Baseball. And who could really argue with that. At the time Aybar was 25 and coming off a 2008 season in which he hit .253/.327/.410 in 362 PA. He was worth a 1.4 WAR and his production was valued at $6.3 million dollars while earning near league minimum.

Defensively, he filled in admirably at first base when Carlos Pena broke his hand after he was hit by a pitch (Pattern? Trend? ), and then did the same across the diamond at third when Evan Longoria also broke a bone in his arm on a HBP. He even played well in limited time at second base which led some to think out loud about him replacing Akinori Iwamura full-time after this season.

Flash forward to present day and Aybar is no longer regarded at the BBIMLB. In fact, some "casual fans," as Stu Sternberg would say, have even called for Aybar's head. Offensively, Aybar remains steady and has hit .252/.338/.420 in 261 PA. He continues to hit left handed pitching well to the tune of .244/.351/.476. However, it's the defense that has people up in arms about the man acquired for Jeff Ridgway.

Whether you look at the above average numbers of 2008 or the below average numbers of 2009, remember they are both small sample sizes.

2008	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	19	155	2.3	19
2B	10	70.2	0.5	11.4
3B	41	358.1	2.4	8.1

2009	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	11	66	-0.1	-1.7
2B	28	139.1	-3.8	-22.9
3B	15	105	-1.1	-7.9

To get a better understanding, here are his career numbers. Still small sample, but larger compared to the individual seasons

Career	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	30	221	2.1	13.2
2B	59	331.2	-1.7	-5.2
3B	137	1093	-0.9	-1

The sample size at third base is almost a full season and Aybar is slightly below average at the hot corner. This leads me to believe that the numbers at first base are probably a good indication of his talent level on that side of the diamond since it is the easier of the two. While the second base sample is still small, the addition of Sean Rodriguez and the emergence of Ben Zobrist makes the Aybar at second base talks unnecessary. Sure, he can still fill in short increments at the keystone, but there's no need to give him extended time given the other (better) options available.

Despite better offensive numbers, Aybar's spotty defense has his WAR at 0.2 this season. With the injury to Pena, I would expect him to get some more burn at first base to end the season. Assuming he will play average defense and hit like he has, he will probably end the season being worth $1.0-1.5 million. With a salary of $975k, Aybar remains a valuable asset. In 2010, his salary jumps to $1.35 million. If Aybar is worth a 0.5-1.0 WAR in 2010, he'll cover that easily. Assuming his experimentation at second base is over and he sticks to playing the corner infield, his defense should not be an issue going forward.

No longer is Aybar baseball's best kept secret. Once Sean Rodriguez gets called up, he most likely won't even be the team's best bench player anymore. But don't be fooled, he is still valuable. TThere is a chance that Gabe Gross won't be around next season. Should that happen, Aybar will gain another distinction; the most average player on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.