SB Nation - Greg Aquino

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:12:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder, seen here checking under his jersey for another jersey, will likely be offered a long term contract by the Brewers this offseason, according to Jon Heyman.

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Some things to read while learning your costume's limitations.

Two more names have surfaced in the search for a new pitching coach: Former Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price and former Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have both reportedly interviewed for the position this week (FanShot). Rick Peterson still appears to be the favorite, but Hernandez has worked with Macha before, and that fact seems to carry some weight for some reason.

It's widely accepted that Albert Pujols will win the NL MVP, but where will Prince Fielder finish? David Gassko of The Hardball Times has developed a system to predict the BBWAA's voting, and it predicts a third place finish for Fielder, behind Pujols and Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman thinks the Brewers will attempt to sign Fielder to a long term deal this offseason.

USA Today has ranked the "shock wave" celebration following Fielder's walk-off home run on September 6 as one of their top ten highlights of the 2009 season. Certainly, it's a moment we'll remember for quite some time.

This is earlier than I normally do birthdays, but happy birthday to Trevor Hoffman, who turns 42 today. As Adam McCalvy notes, Hoffman will become the second oldest player in franchise history with his first appearance in 2010, and could pass Hank Aaron for first place by appearing in a game anytime after June.

Speaking of pitchers who should return next season, there's a new reason to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group. McClung has agreed to give an autographed ball to one randomly selected member of the group, to be chosen on Monday. Membership of the group more than doubled yesterday, but clearly we can do better. If you haven't joined yet, now is the time.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Felipe Lopez, who is riding a career year into free agency for the second time. Anderson notes the differences between Lopez's 2005 and 2009 seasons.

We're just a few hours away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, as the Peoria Javelinas take on Ian Kennedy and the Surprise Rafters at 1:35 Central time today. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the AFL, complete with a link to this PDF of everything you ever wanted to know about the league, and this definition of a Javelina:

Here's something you won't find in that PDF: A javelina, according to the Arizona Game and Fish Department, is also known as a peccary, a medium-sized mammal that looks a bit like a pig. A terrifying, crazed pig.

Here are some other notes on the AFL:

As far as I know, none of the Brewer beat reporters will be in Arizona covering the AFL, but the Javelinas also feature prospects from the Seattle Mariners, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times will be in Arizona following them.
If Baker's coverage and ours aren't enough for you, you can also follow the AFL on Twitter.

Of course, the AFL isn't the only place where baseball is being played right now. The Nashville Sounds' website has a note on the 2009 Sounds playing winter ball in Venezuela. Hernan Iribarren's Cardenales de Lara defeated Adam Heether's Leones del Caracas last night, 7-1. Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run, while Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Need a mental tune-up this morning? NoahJ wants to know how fast you can name the 39 players who appeared in a game for the Brewers this season. I did it with about four and a half minutes to spare, if you need a record to shoot for.

Oh, and if you haven't yet, you're running out of time to cast your ballot in Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report. Even if you've already cast a ballot, you can stop by to rate some of the players that have recently been added, including Alcides Escobar.

If you've done both of those things and you're still looking for something to do, perhaps you should find a job? The Brewers are hiring an HR Coordinator.

Baseball America's Minor League Transactions include the first wave of players to become minor league free agents this offseason, and there's a bunch of former Brewers among them: Greg Aquino, R.J. Swindle, Glendon Rusch, R.A. Dickey and Joe Dillon. Also noted: The Brewers re-signed minor league free agents Jim Henderson (RP) and Patrick Arlis (C), but allowed Chris Duffy to become a free agent.

Elsewhere in the marketplace:

Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a look at Carl Pavano, and why advanced metrics would imply he was better than his conventional numbers showed in 2009.
Jorge Says No! wonders if Jason Marquis' offseason asking price will go down now that he struggled down the stretch and had his start skipped in the NLDS last night.

Continuing their open search process, the Astros have released the names of the ten candidates for their vacant managerial position, and the list includes two former Brewer managers: Ned Yost, as expected, and Phil Garner, who would be entering his second tour of duty managing the team. Garner reportedly called to advocate for Bob Melvin, who coached under him in Milwaukee, but ended up as a candidate himself. The Astros, by the way, are not considering Willie Randolph.

It was a bittersweet moment at TBS headquarters last night, as the end of the final NLDS series meant they'll only get 13 of a possible 20 Division Series broadcasts, but that didn't keep them from celebrating the elimination of the last small market team. Of course, Hass Avocado is the true winner.

I wasn't exactly cheering on the Dodgers over the weekend, but when they won I was happy to see Mark Loretta playing a part in it. Loretta languished for years on some pretty terrible Brewer teams, so it's nice to see karma catching up with him.

I mentioned Trevor Hoffman's birthday above, but today birthday wishes also go out to Damian Miller, who turns 40.

Drink up.

Jeff Salazar, Bryan Bullington Become Free Agents

Charlie — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:16:22 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

8 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Jeff Salazar, right, steals second before the tag of Cincinnati Reds' shortstop Adam Rosales in the bottom of the ninth inning of the spring training baseball game in Bradenton, Fla., Monday, March 30, 2009. Salazar went on to score the game winning run on a hit bit Jason Jaramillo in the Pirates 3-2 win. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Since we're at the point in the year where there's nothing to care about except little things, here's some news: a bunch of guys just became minor league free agents. The only Pirate on the list is Jeff Salazar, who went 1-for-23 for the Bucs this year. Salazar probably needed to hit better this season to have much of a shot at a real major-league career, which is too bad; he has an .826 career minor league OPS (albeit in some pretty hospitable hitting environments, like Tucson and Colorado Springs), and it's a shame he never got more of a shot. Most guys who stick as fourth outfielders begin their careers as starters, like Brandon Moss this year; guys like Salazar who have the skillset but are never lucky enough to be confused for starters usually don't make it.

Also on the list of minor league free agents are former Pirate #1-overall picks Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington. Bullington actually pitched very well for the Jays' Class AAA affiliate in Las Vegas, but he didn't make an appearance there after June. The list also includes Chris Duffy, Chris Shelton, and Craig Stansberry.

Other vaguely interesting names on the list: Phil Humber (third overall pick by the Mets in 2004, acquired by Twins in the Johan Santana trade, stalled in the high minors), IF Wilson Betemit (former top Braves prospect, still not that old, bad season in the White Sox organization but versatile and potentially still useful), RP Javier Lopez (again, a terrible season, but he's one year removed from being one of the majors' more effective relievers), RP Greg Aquino (consistently good minor league numbers; certainly a better option than the Denny Bautistas of the world), RP Vinnie Chulk (ditto), RP Jon Switzer (same), RP Joe Nelson (actually a totally decent MLB pitcher for the Rays last year, and a terrific one for the Marlins in 2008), and lefty SP Travis Blackley (former top Mariners prospect finally seems to be pitching with better control in his late 20s and still hasn't been used exclusively as a reliever, where he might find his niche).

Nothing big here, but I'd be mildly psyched to see the Bucs sign Blackley, in particular.

Thanks to WTM.

Fire Everyone! - The Fans

grzgrzgrz — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 00:00:23 -0000

More photos » by David Richard - AP

The chicken or the egg: Matt Herges backed by a bunch of empty seats.

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Editors' Note: This is the ninth installment in a 12-part series. Our guest columnist is Vince Grzegorek, writer/editor for Scene Magazine and author of '64 and Counting.

Yes, you, Indians fans. What? You thought you were absolved of the egregious sins on the field just because you don't play for the team, own the team, pick the players or in any way support anything called a Dellucci or a Michaels? Sorry, you're in line to get clipped just like everyone else. I'm pretty sure after the LGT firing spree is over, the only person left is going to be the dude that sets off the fireworks on Friday nights. He's going to be a lonely man.

I know what you're thinking. But, Vince, this is happening TO us. We are the victims here. Lame excuse. Don't get all defensive on me here. You can't claim active fandom and then get all passive when things fall apart.

In 2008, Forbes, in one of their ever-so-scientific rankings, listed Indians fans as one of the ten least loyal in baseball. Turns out when our wife gets fat, we start looking up old girlfriends and checking out the secretary at work. (For the record, when that happens in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago or Boston, they buy their wives some plastic surgery.) Well, you know that saying, "No one hits my littler brother but me?" For anyone who could care less what Forbes thinks, I'm here to lay down some righteous analysis as to just what degree, exactly, Indians fans suck enough to get canned. I'm big brother and little brother in this case.

Are we good fans? Can Cleveland support a major league franchise? Is there any way we could trade that nun who always shows up for a Satanist with a direct line to Mephistopheles? Read on, youngins.

The Myth of 455

Indians fans like to defensively point to the 455 game sellout streak as some sort of badge of fan honor. Look, we are good baseball fans. We show up when the team's worth seeing. No offense, Cleveland, but all that the sellout streak confirms is that 1990's Cleveland was filled with just as many yuppies with disposable income as any other city. The ancillary to that fact is simple: bandwaggoning. Supply, demand and success meant that the Jake was a place to see and be seen. It was the simple possession of tickets, especially for corporate types, not knowledge of the team, that carried social cachet.

Don't get me wrong, the atmosphere at the stadium, the mood around the team, the palpable excitement among citizens and fans was electric and would never have been the same without The Streak. No disputing that. It's historical fact -- a document of a time in Cleveland with the perfect storm of a competitive team, no Browns, a crappy basketball team, a new stadium and a revitalized downtown entertainment district. It is not, however, a testament to the quality or quantity of the fanbase for any period of time longer than from the first sellout to the last. Let's face it, boredom and a short-term surplus of discretionary entertainment income isn't really a feather you really want in your cap.

Just peep the Tribe's attendance since 2001:

2001: Ranked 4th; 3,175,523
2002: Ranked 12th; 2,616,940
2003: Ranked 24th; 2,421,358
2004: Ranked 25th; 1,814,401
2005: Ranked 24th; 2,013,763
2006: Ranked 25th; 1,997,995
2007: Ranked 22nd; 2,275,916
2008: Ranked 22nd; 2,169,760
2009: Ranked 27th; 1,607,615 (as of this writing)

Yeppers. Look at that there 2007 attendance number. Indians fans sure come out strong when the team is winning. Oh, right.

Put the 455 defense to rest already.

Indians Fans are True Baseball Fans: True or False?

So what cities have produced comparable attendance numbers in the last three years -- the period from the doorsteps of the World Series to the cellar of the AL? We're talking about Pittsburgh, Oakland, Florida, D.C., Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Anyone inclined to thump their chests about how great Indians fans are after looking at that group? No, seriously, go ahead. I'll wait to count the hands. Didn't think so.

Earlier this season I attended a Red Sox vs. Indians game. Naturally, "The Nation" was in full effect -- louder than the Tribe fans, more into the game, more decked out in gear (even if it was pink and green Red Sox crap). I was sitting in the bleachers amongst the Sawx fans when Boston made the call to the bullpen for a reliever. I didn't know who he was then and I certainly don't remember his name now, but I do remember that he had recently been called up from Pawtucket. I'm not a Red Sox fan, so I'm really not on the hook for knowing every recent AAA callup — I wouldn't expect them to know who Greg Aquino is, but I do least expect them to know their own kind.

So, like any good curious baseball fan and brave denizen of the Wahoos, I started wandering the bleachers looking for some answers. Who is this guy? Where did he come from? Does anyone here wearing anything with a Sox logo on it have any idea who plays for their team? Twelve times or so I bellowed out the question to the pink and green masses. No one knew. I took a measure of pride in that, especially when I asked a guy sitting next to his girlfriend or wife and he didn't know the answer, and especially especially when the girlfriend's eyes immediately told him and me that he was less of a man than he was seconds before I accosted him with the reasonable inquiry.

And it was a completely reasonable question. I mean, even if these guys were born and raised in Willoughby — which, they were, but it's okay since Willoughby is like basically Southie, right, brah? — they claimed Sox allegiance and the rules, unwritten though they may be, are sacrosanct, and they say that you know your guys. These schlubs, sadly, did not, and this particular exercise in wit ended when one fan, looking exactly how you might expect a Boston fan to look, responded negatively to my repeated inquiries about guys that played for "his team" and threatened to "end me." Not wanting to be "ended," I gave up, a self-satisfied look on my face nonetheless.

You don't find that kind of lack of knowledge among Indians fans.

Does that mean we're "better" fans despite the fact that no one shows up to our games while the Red Sox sell out Fenway like a mother? (They've destroyed the Indians' 455-game streak.)

I don't know, why don't you ask the Tigers or Sox or Yankees fan sitting next to you at the Jake next time you're there.

It's the Economy, Stupid

So, why don't we go to games?

The sellout streak has probably skewed the realistic expectations for how many people should pour through the gates. If Indians fans use the streak as a defense for how supportive they can be during good times, it's just as easy for the rest of the world to point toward the attendance woes of recent years as reasons why Indians fans aren't all that and a bag of peanuts.

It's no secret that Cleveland and the surrounding areas have been absolutely taken behind the woodshed, economically speaking, for the better part of the last decade. Fans say this is why they can't go to games — the dollars just aren't there anymore.

The response from those on the other side of the argument is that the Browns still sell out, even with higher ticket prices, PSLs, steeper concession prices and parking, and, quite honestly, a more embarrassing product.

To that I would say this: Ohioans bought 380,465 gallons of Kamchatka vodka last year. This particular brand of vodka, if you aren't familiar with it, is decidedly disgusting — straight stomach-burning solvent filtered not five times like the good stuff, but likely zero. It was also the number one selling liquor in the state during 2008. Think about that for a second. When a drinking population can't even comfortably buy some Absolut, you're looking at a group of poor freaking people.

On the other hand, if Cleveland's economy has been taken behind the woodshed, Detroit's has been tied up with duct tape inside the woodshed, and yet the Tigers have managed to draw 2,320,678 fans this year, good for 13th best in the majors.

That's one way to look at the argument and it conveniently takes us to ...

"It would help if the fans showed up and came to the games. That's why the team didn't make money, because the fans weren't there, supporting the team."

You know that it was Cliff Lee who uttered that sentence, but it might as well have been one of the Dolans. That's their trademarked argument. We'll spend money when you spend money. Until then? Here's a nickel. Can I have it back now?

The Facts as I see them: I don't think fans are going to cascade through the turnstiles at the Jake until the team is demonstrably better for more than a couple years in a row. Even if they do, the Dolans are businessmen who are going to make sure their bottom line is right. The Dolans aren't going to lose as much money as they say this season thanks to revenue sharing and other avenues. The Indians will rank somewhere in the 20's in attendance save for some extraordinary confluence of circumstances (like LeBron leaving and the team advancing to the playoffs for, like, five years in a row).

The intricacies of running a baseball team in a small to mid-market have been discussed eloquently elsewhere, both in this series and the rest of this site. They've also been discussed by people with metric tons more knowledge of the economic factors involved than I possess. But if putting a competitive team on the field, or the lack of ability to do so, is going to be blamed by the owners and the players on the fans, well then, we've really crossed some sort of threshold that I didn't sign up for when I first fell in love with the Tribe.

Perhaps it's time to face the reality that while Indians fans might be better baseball fans than those in Florida, Pittsburgh, Oakland, or D.C., we'll just have to base that knowledge on something ethereal and incalculable since Cleveland's fanbase will be indistinguishable from those in the other cities based on attendance alone. If the Dolans and the likes of Cliff Lee can't see that, then they can bite me. Victor would never say something like that.

Just Because Part I: Fire This Blog

Most of us don't get paid anything at all, or, at the most, take home extremely pitiful compensation, for spending hours thinking about, researching, and writing about this team. Remember that Seinfeld episode where Kramer gets fired from a joint he doesn't even work for? Right, well, as depressing as it may be to fire someone the charitable equivalent of a volunteer, it must be done. If there's anything more pathetic that the group of people who get paid good money to put the lousy product known as the Indians on the field year after year, it's the group of people who get paid literally nothing to cover them. Ditto goes for those that read and comment on those blogs. I recommend taking up a more rewarding hobby. Maybe knitting or coin collecting.You don't want to be the Wal-Mart greeter of baseball fans.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Pitcher Purgatory

afh4 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:38:10 -0000

As always, click on the panels for larger images.

Game 79: White Sox 11, Indians 4 (7 innings)

afh4 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:35:50 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

This picture is too reminiscent of a time that I miss for me to not use it.

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After an extended rain delay, the game today was finally called final with the Indians suffering yet another loss. Today's loss was out of the ordinary in that it involved an abysmal Cliff Lee performance. For whatever reason, Lee just didn't have it today and managed to to give up 7 runs on 11 hits over just 3 innings. He was relieved by this Mike Gosling character who has proven that he is in no way a better option than Greg Aquino, Vinnie Chulk, or any other waiver wire fodder the Indians can get their hands on.

The slow death march of 2009 continues and it's hard to know what to focus on; Lee wasn't ever going to repeat as Cy Young winner on a team like this but his performance ballooned his ERA to 3.39, nearly a half point higher than it was coming into today. On top of that, Lee's record is now 4-7 which means nothing except that he'll probably get even less votes, if you're into that sort of thing.

The Indians did get a homerun out of Travis Hafner today, who now has 8 jacks in 107 ABs. That works out to one round tripper for every 13.375 at-bats. For reference, in 2006 he hit one out every 10.8 at-bats, in 2005 he did it every 14.72 at bats and in 2008 it was every 39.6. Pronk is even ahead of his 2007 pace, when the number was 22.7. In an extremely surreal season, it's become clear that Hafner's power is still present and accounted for when he's healthy which can only be seen as a good thing.

The Indians will play again tomorrow, with Jeremy Sowers facing Jose Contreras at 7:05.

Game 68: Brewers 9, Indians 8 (11 Innings)

Ryan — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 04:59:18 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

It was the bullpen...again.

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Take a very talented opposition lineup, add three five-inning starts, a pinch of wildness, and two heaping cups of bad relieving, and you have the trainwreck that was a Brewers three-game sweep of the Indians.Today it was David Huff who couldn't pitch past the fifth inning, though he didn't pitch badly. For a while this game seemed the spitting image of yesterdays' loss. The Brewers and Indians were tied in the middle innings, but as the end of the game approached, Milwaukee added runs late in the game. But today's contest was different, for the Indians scored four runs in the ninth (two off of previously perfect Trevor Hoffman) to tie the game and send it into extra innings.

But still that minor detail remained: how to get outs using the bullpen. Kerry Wood did his job in the tenth, but he was only usable for an inning. After that it was Greg Aquino, and true to form, he walked some batters, and one of those walks came around to score. Whatever magical spell it was that turned Aquino, Vizcaino, and Herges into decent major-league relievers has worn off.

Next Up: Lee vs. Harden, Friday at 2:20 PM.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Ryan Garko	.377	Greg Aquino	-.291
Victor Martinez	.232	Matt Herges	-.238
Kerry Wood	.143	Ben Francisco	-.176

Game 66: Brewers 14, Indians 12

Ryan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:15:56 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Prince Fielder, seconds after obliterating a Rafael Perez pitch.

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Tonight's matchup was twice the game last night's contest was, in that it took twice as long to play. It was more than twice as ugly as last night's pitcher's duel. Sunday's game had quick innings and outstanding pitching. Tonight's slugfest had poor pitching, wild pitches, walks, and a lot of home runs. Yesterday Cliff Lee went the distance, giving up no runs on three hits. Tonight's starter, Carl Pavano, gave up three hits and two runs...in the first inning. Pavano, who had been on a nice stretch of good starts, fell apart for the second consecutive start, barely getting through five innings. But by this time the Indians still had the lead, and they'd add more runs in their half of the sixth.

But the trio of Greg Aquino, Luis Vizcaino, and Matt Herges, all "free" talent that had done much to stabilize the bullpen in the last month, couldn't stay in the strike zone despite a significant lead. Aquino bumbled his way through the sixth and into the seventh, but he had to be relieved by Vizcaino, who got out of that inning but couldn't throw strikes in the eighth. And Matt Herges couldn't even get out of the eighth. He gave up a bases-loaded infield single to Ryan Braun and was pulled in favor of Rafael Perez. When Perez came into the game, the Indians were still leading by three. Even if he allowed a run or two, the Indians had Kerry Wood for the ninth. But he threw a high pitch to Prince Fielder, and the Brewers first baseman absolutely crushed it for a grand slam. The Brewers now led 13-12, and although Perez was visibly shaken, he was allowed to pitch to two more hitters before being pulled. All told, Cleveland relievers allowed eight runs, all of them earned, on six hits and six walks. It was the walks that brought the Brewers back into the game, and given the score, there was no excuse for them.

Remember that game the Indians stole against Zach Greinke? That win just got cancelled out by this loss, a game in which they had two significant leads, including a four-run lead going into the eighth. The long-term prospects also took a hit. What if Carl Pavano is running out of gas? He's long since passed his major-league innings total of the last four seasons combined. And what exactly is wrong with Rafael Perez?

Next Up: Gallardo vs. Sowers, 7:05 PM. Looking at this matchup, tonight's loss hurts even more.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Shin-Soo Choo	.241	Rafael Perez	-.693
Victor Martinez	.239	Carl Pavano	-.214
Travis Hafner	.182	Matt Herges	-.141

Game 63: Indians 4, Royals 3 (10 Innings)

Ryan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:06:03 -0000

More photos » by Ron Schwane - AP

Shin-Soo Choo struck out three times against Zack Greinke, but came through in the tenth with a walk-off single.

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The Indians aren't a good team right now, but when Cliff Lee's on the mound, they're an excellent club. Likewise with the Royals and Zack Greinke; beating Kansas City with him on the mound is as difficult as defeating one of the best teams in baseball. And with the Indians sending Jeremy Sowers to the mound, the matchup seemed more like the Dodgers versus the Nationals than the two teams listed on the schedule.

Sowers in the first few innings was at the top of his game, spotting his fastball early in the count to get ahead, and even getting some swings and misses. But while Greinke seemed to be getting better as the game went on, Sowers seemed to be struggling forward just on his initial momentum. His last two innings were mortal struggles; he threw 36 pitches in the fifth inning alone. But to his credit, he left the game having only given up two runs. The Indians were still in the game, a minor victory by itself.

Greg Aquino relieved Sowers in the sixth, having little room for error given the score and opposition. He pitched scoreless innings in the sixth and seventh, and almost pitched a third scoreless frame, but he grooved a high fastball to Miguel Olivo, and the Kansas City catcher homered to give the Royals a 3-1 lead. But compared to what the Indians were getting in these situations early in the season, Aquino's outing was fantastic. Although coming back from a two-run deficit seemed a tall order, at least it seemed possible.

Greinke tired as he approached 100 pitches. The Indians hit several balls on the screws in the seventh, and Ben Francisco lined out to begin the eighth. Then Mark DeRosa singled, and Victor Martinez worked a walk; Greinke was done, if not due to pitch count, then due to ineffectiveness. The Royals then gave the Indians an opening after John Bale came on; Shin-Soo Choo hit a grounder to first, and rather than being content to get a force at second, shortstop Tony Peña tried to turn a double play. The pitcher was covering at first, and he couldn't get to the relay. The ball bounded away, and not only did DeRosa score, but Choo went to second on the throw home.

Joakim Soria was then brought on for a four-out save. The Royals closer didn't have command of his curve, and hung one to Jhonny Peralta. If not for the wind blowing in, Peralta would have hit the hanger over the fence to give the Indians the lead, but on this night there was a good breeze blowing straight in, so the ball hit a foot or so below the top of the left field fence for a game-tying double. And now, with the game tied, the contest was no longer Greinke versus Sowers, but Soria versus Wood, a much more competitive matchup. Wood pitched a 1-2-3 ninth, and Matt Herges pitched a scoreless tenth. Trey Hillman elected to go with Kyle Farnsworth for the tenth, and the Indians, for the first time all game, had the advantage in a pitching matchup. DeRosa singled, Victor Martinez walked, and Shin-Soo Choo singled through a screech of gulls, clipping the wing of one unfortunate bird in the process. The ball was deflected just enough for Coco Crisp to miss the ball entirely, though I don't think the play at the plate was going to be close anyway. And so, with some good relief pitching and a couple of excellent late-inning at-bats, the Indians stole one at home.

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Mark DeRosa	.228	Ben Francisco	-.216
Jhonny Peralta	.225	Trevor Crowe	-.165
Victor Martinez	.217	Chris Gimenez	-.153

Game 53: Yankees 5, Indians 2

Ryan — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 03:13:35 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Greg Aquino after getting out of the fifth inning unscathed.

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The final deficit could have easily been worse, for Indians pitchers walked eleven tonight. Jeremy Sowers against the Yankee lineup is about as good a combination for success as a match and a room-full of gunpowder. The flame stayed lit for five innings, as Sowers got into and out of jams in the first and third innings, and somehow, when the smoke cleared, he had only given up a run through five innings. Sowers started the sixth by walking the bases loaded, and Eric Wedge, remembering Jeremy's start in Boston, pulled him in favor of Greg Aquino. Sowers had pitched fairly well, largely staying out of the strike zone, which meant lots of walks, but also no big hits. He also managed to strike out three batters. Because the Indians don't really have any other options, he's going to stay in the rotation, but this was probably Jeremy at his best.

Aquino squirmed his way out of the inherited jam, and kept the game surprisingly tied at one. The problem was that Joba Chamberlain (born Justin Louis Heath, per the always accurate wikipedia) was having the best start of his career. As scores of gulls frolicked in the outfield and thousands of insects descended on the stadium, the right-hander scoured through the short-handed Cleveland lineup. Victor Martinez, who had returned quickly from a painful-looking knee contusion, took the pitcher deep to right in the fourth inning. Victor was batting left-handed, so his bruised left knee provided the power that propelled the pitch. In the fifth, the Indians had their best chance against the New York starter, with Ryan Garko and Jamie Carroll reaching with nobody out. Even with it being just the fifth inning, Eric Wedge had Kelly Shoppach bunt, but he popped the pitch into the air, high enough for the Yankee pitcher to bound off the mound and catch the ball as he plunged to earth. Garko was doubled up at second, and the rally disintegrated.

The Yankees finally took command in Greg Aquino's second inning of work. The inning after he diffused a bases-loaded jam, he created one himself by walking the sacks full with one out. Nobody was warming at the start of the inning, otherwise he wouldn't have had to pitch to Nick Swisher. But he did, and Swisher doubled half-way up the left field wall, plating two Yankees and setting the stage for two more runs in the inning.

Next Up: A key series in Minnesota. Huff vs. Slowey, 8:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Victor Martinez	.093	Kelly Shoppach	-.179
Shin-Soo Choo	.041	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.096
Jensen Lewis	.009	Ben Francisco	-.088