SB Nation - Jeff Weaver

Worst New York Yankees of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:17 -0000

We had some fun the other day debating the Pinstripe Alley Yankee Team of the Decade. Good points were raised on several controversial choices.

Along the way, some of you asked for the 'Worst Yankees of the Decade' team. I thought that would be fun, so I decided to take a shot at it.

Looking at the rosters over the years, though, I found it almost impossible to narrow it down to a single team. Instead, position-by-position, here are some of the most forgettable -- and regrettable -- Yankees of the past decade.

I am sure there are many other names that could or should be added to this list. But, this should get you started strolling down the wrong side of Yankee Memory Lane.

C -- Alberto Castillo, Chris Turner, Chris Widger, Todd Greene, Joe Oliver, Bobby Estelalla, Wil Nieves, Sal Fasano, Michel Hernandez,

1B -- Travis Lee (.105 in 7 games)

2B -- Tony Womack

SS -- Erick Almonte,

3B -- Wilson Betemit, Drew Henson,

INF -- Alex Arias, Felix Escalona (.000, 5 games in 2004), Mark Bellhorn (.118, 9 games, 2005), Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Morgan Ensberg

OF -- Kenny Lofton, Matt Lawton (.125, 21 games, 2005), Mike Vento, Justin Christian,

DH -- Jose Canseco

SP -- Kevin Brown, Tim Redding (54.00 ERA in 1 game, 2005), Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, Jaret Wright (Carl Pavano BEFORE Pavano), Christian Parker (one 2001 start, got hurt, never pitched again), Jeff Weaver, Darrell May, Sidney Ponson (multiple times),

RP -- Alex Graman (19.80 in 3 games, 2004) & 13.50 in 2 games, 2005), Colter Bean, Bret Prinz, Sean Henn, Gabe White, Billy Traber, Anthony Claggett (33.75 ERA in 2 games).

I am ashamed to admit so many guys like this have worn the pinstripes during the course of the last decade. Yuck!

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

Browse more photos »

Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Cashman's moves

Travis G — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

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Can we finally give some credit to Brian Cashman? After an eight year drought, he finally put the Yankees back on top of the baseball world.

After acquiring underachiever after underachiever, Cash built a team based on healthy and dependable stars. In years past, we'd seen the likes of Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Jeff Weaver and Carl Pavano don the pinstripes, only to watch them either underperform or not perform at all. None of the aforementioned lived up to their billing, either through injury or ineffectiveness.

Carl Pavano started 26 games for the Yankees over four seasons. A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia started 67 games this season alone. Mark Teixeira played 156 games, only sitting out a few times to 'freshen up.'

Not to denigrate George III, but his 'interference' only seemed to hurt the club. He's better when he stands back and lets his 'baseball people' run the team. The last dynasty began when he was barred from baseball. The one that is (hopefully) beginning now began when he ceded control to his sons (about 2007), who were far less 'hands on' than their dad. They in turn handed control over to Brian Cashman, a smart move considering he is the general manager.

Since the change in management, we've seen a marked improvement in the farm system: the '09 bullpen consisted almost entirely of former-Yankee farmhands: Rivera, Hughes, Joba, Coke, Robertson, Aceves. In fact, 13 of the 25 players (more than half) on the World Series roster were from the Yanks farm system.

Next year we're going to see the likely addition of several more: Frankie Cervelli looks to be the BUC, Mark Melancon and Austin Jackson may join the team around mid-season, Jesus Montero has an outside chance at playing a contributing role, as does Zach McAllister.

The money the Yankees save by using the likes of Hughes and Joba instead of Kyle Farnsworth and Tom Gordon can be used to acquire elite free agents (Tex, CC), not just good or over-the-hill ones (RJ, Sheff). Hughes and Joba were worth $17 million combined this year. They were paid about $1 million. Think about it this way: that $16 million difference basically paid for A.J. Burnett's whole season.

Instead of Big Stein forcing Cash to go after the likes of Sheffield and RJ (by all accounts, Cash wanted Beltran and/or Vlad Guerrero), he was able to sign quality in-their-prime players like CC and Tex.

Cashman was against trading for Johan Santana (at the price the Twins were asking), despite the apparent pressure put on him by other members of the front office. Future injuries and ineffectiveness were suspected, and he asked the most vital of questions: why pay twice for one player? Why give up prospects and money when, if the Yankees could be patient, a pitcher at least as good would be available for just money? (Imagine if this had happened when the Yanks were preparing for the stretch run, or if Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera had been traded.)

I was admittedly against the Nady/Marte trade. Nady was coming off a career half-year while Cashman sold low on high-ceiling prospect Jose Tabata. To add injury to insult, both Nady and Marte missed the majority of 2009 (they combined to play only 28 games). Well, whatever happens with Tabata in the future, we'll know that that trade helped us win a World Series. Marte was essential to the playoff run, summoning the spirit of Graeme Lloyd: 4 ip, 0.00 ERA, 5 k, 0 bb, 2 h (and both hits were in one game!).

I'll talk about one more move: Nick Swisher. Any team could've had this guy, but that the Yanks got him for almost nothing (Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, are you kidding me?), and that he was superior to not only Bobby Abreu but to every other Yankee OFer made the trade even more extraordinary.

Some skeptics will say Cashman is only a product of the highest payroll in MLB. But as we've learned first-hand this decade, spending the most money is anything but a sure way to win the World Series. Not only has Brian Cashman given the Yankees their 27th title, but has put them in a position to continue supplying the club with good, cheap talent.

PS: To the fans/readers of PA - thank you for an incredible season. The four of us fed off your incredible energy and enthusiasm. We hope to see you all throughout the off-season and 2010.

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

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There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Dodgers Division Series In Review

Eric Stephen — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Celebration is a wonderful thing

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It was a series pitting two closely matched teams against one another. In a close and short series, taking advantage of opportunities is usually the key, and the Dodgers were able to do that, sweeping away the Cardinals in three games.

The Dodgers faced the tall task of facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will both likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young voting, in the first two games, but the Dodgers won them both, the second in improbable fashion with an unlikely ninth-inning comeback.

The Dodgers capitalized on nearly every opportunity, but the Cardinals did not, finishing with four hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodger bullpen was an asset, as expected, and the Dodger starters got progressively better in each game.

The Dodgers who lost playoff series to the Cardinals in both 1985 and 2004, plus a regular-season playoff in 1946, were able to exact some measure of revenge with a 3-0 sweep. That the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in baseball won this series was not surprising, but the sweep was an unexpected and sweet result.

Dodger Batter of the Series: Andre Ethier managed to hit just one single in three games, yet still hit .500 for the series. He slammed two home runs, a pair of doubles, and a triple, and fell just a single shy of the cycle in the clinching victory Saturday.

Dodger Pitcher of the Series: This one was an easy call, as Vicente Padilla made his mark in Dodger history with seven scoreless innings in the closeout win in Game 3. Padilla's game was just the eighth in Dodger postseason history with seven or more scoreless innings allowing four hits or fewer.

Series Record: 3-0
13 runs scored (4.33 per game)
6 runs allowed (2.00 per game)
.805 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 98-67 (.594)
793 runs scored (4.81 per game)
617 runs allowed (3.74 per game)
.613 pythagorean winning percentage (101-64)

Game 1 Key Moments

In the top of the first inning, the Cardinals got the first three men on base, the last via intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Looking at the run expectancy matrix from Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals would be expected to score 2.28 runs in the inning, and probably more with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina coming up. However, the Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a botched pop fly by Ronnie Belliard behind second base. After a very long top of the inning, the Dodgers immediately answered. A Rafael Furcal single was followed by a Matt Kemp laser beam home run to center, and the Dodgers never looked back.
Randy Wolf was ineffective, and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Jeff Weaver entered with two outs and the bases loaded, and pulled his Weaver magic yet again, getting Ryan Ludwick to ground back to the box to end the inning with the 3-2 lead preserved. In the regular season, opposing batters had just one hit in 20 at-bats against Weaver with the sacks jacked.

Game 2 Key Moments

Adam Wainwright pitched a great game in Game Two, and was cruising early, retiring the first 11 Dodgers. That is, until Ethier took him deep to tie the game at one.
With the game tied at one in the sixth inning, Joe Torre let Clayton Kershaw bat with one out. Kershaw was at 97 pitches, and although Kershaw has earned the right to be set free from his pitch count shackles at this point in the season, the Dodger bullpen is too strong not to utilize. Any advantage of Kershaw pitching over Ronald Belisario or Ramon Troncoso is greatly outweighed by the gain in having a real hitter at the plate in place of Kershaw. After grounding out in the sixth, Kershaw allowed the go-ahead run in the seventh.
On the Colby Rasmus RBI double, with nobody out, James Loney alertly cutoff the throw in the infield and nailed Rasmus at third base with one out, helping limit the Cardinals to one run in the inning.
Down one in the eighth inning, Torre used his best reliever, Jonathan Broxton, to face the all-righty heart of the lineup of Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. Broxton retired all three, not allowing a ball hit out of the infield, to keep the Dodgers close.
With two outs down 2-1 in the ninth, James Loney lofted an easy game-ending soft liner to left, only to have Matt Holliday misplay it, the ball hitting off his groin as Loney ended up at second base. While that play would have certainly ended the game, it's important to note the Cardinals still had an 86.7% win expectancy after the misplay.
Casey Blake drew a nine-pitch walk, leading to a game-tying single by Ronnie Belliard, who has supplanted Orlando Hudson as the regular second baseman.
After a walk to Russell Martin, Mark Loretta came through with the biggest hit of his career, ending a six-for-46 pinch hitting drought with a walk-off single, the Dodgers' 13th walk-off win of the season.

Game 3 Key Moments

The Cardinals again loaded the bases in the first inning, this time with two outs, but Vicente Padilla ended the only real scoring threat against him by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Yadier Molina.
Holding a 1-0 advantage in the third inning, Andre Ethier provided some breathing room for the Dodgers with a bomb to right field, a two-run home run to extend the lead to 3-0.
Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel, finishing the series with a 101-mph fastball to end the Cardinals season.

Not Gonna Beat Us: The first three times Albert Pujols came to the plate with a runner in scoring position, Joe Torre decided to intentionally walk the best player in the game. Pujols was limited to one run batted in during the series, and that came with the Cardinals down five runs in the eighth inning of Game 3.

Run Record: Andre Ethier scored five runs in the series, tying the Dodger record for a division series. Manny Ramirez had five runs scored last year against the Cubs. Ethier did set the Dodger record for most extra-base hits in a division series, with five.

A Slight Concern: Matt Kemp hit his first career playoff home run in his first at-bat of the series in Game 1. However, after that, Kemp had just one hit in 13 at-bats, and had eight strikeouts.

Along For The Ride: The home opener this season had two stars -- well, three including Vin Scully -- Chad Billingsley, with his 11 strikeouts over seven innings, and Orlando Hudson, with the second cycle in LA Dodger history. Both made the National League All-Star team this year. Yet, their contribution this series was almost nil. Billingsley, who was scheduled to pitch a fourth game if needed, didn't pitch an inning, and Hudson didn't get a plate appearance, although he was used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in all three games.

Game By Game Results:

Next Series: The Dodgers open the NLCS Thursday at Dodger Stadium, against either the Rockies or Phillies.

NLDS Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	12	5	6	2	1	2	3	1	0/0	.500/.571/1.333	1.905	.500
Furcal	12	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0/0	.500/.500/.667	1.167	.500
Manny	13	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	0/0	.308/.357/.538	.896	.364
Blake	11	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.300
Belliard	11	2	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.500
Loney	12	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.250/.308/.250	.558	.273
Kemp	14	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0/0	.143/.143/.357	.500	.200
Martin	9	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0/0	.111/.385/.111	.496	.125
Starters	94	12	28	5	2	3	12	11	0/0	.298/.380/.489	.869	.352
Loretta	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	1.000/1.000/1.000	2.000	1.000
Thome	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.333/.000	.333	.000
Hudson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pierre	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Bench	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.333/.500/.333	.833	.500
Pitchers	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Totals	105	13	29	5	2	3	13	11	0/0	.276/.358/.448	.806	.329

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla	1	1-0	--	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	0.00	0.714	2.44
Kershaw	1	0-0	--	6.2	9	2	2	1	4	2.70	1.500	3.90
Wolf	1	0-0	--	3.2	6	2	2	5	2	4.91	3.000	5.33
Starters	3	1-0	--	17.1	19	4	4	7	10	2.08	1.500	3.61
Kuo	1	0-0	--	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.000	-0.85
Broxton	3	0-0	1	3.2	4	1	1	0	4	2.45	1.091	0.97
Weaver	1	1-0	--	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.750	1.65
Belisario	2	0-0	--	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000	3.15
Sherrill	3	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	1	1	0	3.86	0.857	5.72
Relievers	3	2-0	1	9.2	8	2	2	1	7	1.86	0.931	2.32
Totals	3	3-0	1	27.0	27	6	6	8	17	2.00	1.296	3.15

Padilla, Dodgers Look To Close Out Cardinals

Eric Stephen — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Vicente Padilla's stare will match what he throws Saturday: blanks

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Dodgers Lead Series 2-0
Game 1	Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
Game 2	Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2
Game 3	Today	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	12:37pm
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm / 5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers have a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series, but we need not look farther back than Game 2 to see that until the deed is done, there's no reason to celebrate just yet. The Dodgers still have a lot of work to do, but they do in fact have a bid advantage. After all, a bird in the hand is worth two in the Busch.

Vicente Padilla gets the honor of starting today, with an opportunity to send the Dodgers to the next round. He has not faced the Cardinals since 2003. All we know is that Padilla has made seven starts as a Dodger, and the Dodgers have won six games. Padilla is 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.40 FIP, and a 3.46 x-FIP as a Dodger. He can join Jeff Weaver, Ronnie Belliard, and Mark Loretta in the group of unlikely Dodger heroes this postseason with a win.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have rightfully shared the spotlight this season, but Joel Pineiro has had a fine season, finishing 9th in the league in FIP (3.31) and 11th in the league in x-FIP (3.76). Pineiro doesn't strikeout anyone (just 4.4 per nine innings this season), but he limits walks and home runs like nobody's business. Pineiro was brilliant on July 29 against the Dodgers, allowing just one run in eight innings.

What the Dodgers can hang their hat on against the mustachioed Pineiro (aren't they all?) is that for the last two months, he has pitched more like, well, Joel Pineiro. In his final 12 starts of the season Pineiro was 6-3, but with a 4.64 ERA and a 4.68 FIP.

This is the first postseason start for both Padilla and Pineiro, meaning five of the six starting pitchers in this series were making their first postseason start. Pineiro allowed one run in two innings of relief in his one playoff experience, in the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees.

The Cardinals have three hits in 22 at-bat with runners in scoring position so far this series. The Dodgers aren't much better at 4-for-18, although those last two hits are the difference between a 1-1 series and a 2-0 Dodger lead.

The Dodgers are 0-5 all-time in playoff games in St. Louis (three in 1985, two in 2004).

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 3:07pm

TV: TBS (Dodgers are the ~~first~~ only game today, so no need to start with TNT)

Baseball Reference Game Three Preview

Dodgers Cash In Gift, Send Cardinals To Brink Of Offseason Holliday

Eric Stephen — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:49:57 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Dodgers Lead Series 2-0
Game 1	Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
Game 2	Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	12:37pm
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm / 5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I've heard of a sucker punch game, but this was a junk punch game for the Cardinals. The Cardinals held a 2-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning, and James Loney lofted a soft line drive to Matt Holliday in left field. As Holliday came in to make the game-ending catch, he stumbled and missed the easy catch, and the ball appeared to hit him in the groin area, allowing Loney to reach second base on the error. The Dodgers were given new life.

Juan Pierre was brought in to pinch run, and Casey Blake walked, bringing up Ronnie Belliard, the surprise starter at second base for each of the first two games of this series. Belliard delivered, with a game-tying single to center, plating Pierre. A Russell Martin walk loaded the bases for the pitcher's spot. Mark Loretta, who struggled all year, came through with the biggest hit of his career, a soft single to centerfield to send Dodger fans everywhere into a state of euphoria with a 3-2 win and a 2-0 series lead.

The ending outshone a wonderful pitching duel between Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was good, allowing just two runs in his 6.2 innings, but Wainwright was better, allowing only one run in his eight innings. The Dodger comeback win also overshadows a mistake by Torre in a tie game in the sixth inning, when he should have pinch hit for Kershaw, who had thrown 97 pitches to that point. That's all water under the bridge right now, thanks to the improbable comeback.

Wainwright was not happy with the white towels given out to fans at Dodger Stadium, believing they contributed to Holliday's misplay, telling MLB Network:

It doesn't really seem fair that the opposing team should be allowed to shake white towels when there's a white baseball flying through the air. Dodger blue towels, how about that?

I have good news for you, Adam. You won't have to worry about the Cardinals playing another game at Dodger Stadium this season. I do agree, though, that the towels should be blue.

Lucky or not, so far Torre's roster decisions are coming up golden so far this October:

Jeff Weaver: got out of a bases loaded jam yesterday. Check.
Ronnie Belliard: game-tying base hit today. Check.
Mark Loretta: game-winning hit today. Check.

Here's a link to Vin Scully's call of the game-winning hit on KABC.

By the way, that makes 13 walk-off hits this season for the Dodgers.

Friday is a time to rest, and bask in the commanding 2-0 series lead. Vicente Padilla will face Joel Pineiro Saturday at 3:07pm.

The game times have been determined for the rest of the series. Game four, if necessary, will be played Sunday at 12:37pm Pacific time. If both NL division series go to a fifth game, Tuesday will be played at 6:37pm at Dodger Stadium. If the other NL series is over, game five will be at 5:07pm.

WP - George Sherrill (1-0): 1 IP, 1 hit

LP - Ryan Franklin (0-1): 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 2 unearned runs, 2 walks

Box Score

Dodgers Win Opener, Beat Cardinals 5-3

Eric Stephen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 06:00:46 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Matt Kemp's first career postseason home run gave the Dodgers a lead they would never relinquish.

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Dodgers Lead Series 1-0
Game 1	Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers' starting pitcher couldn't get out of the fourth inning, and their offense had a woeful two hits in 15 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Yet, none of that mattered, as the Dodgers plodded their way to a 5-3 victory in Game One of the National League Division Series, the longest game in NLDS history at three hours, 54 minutes.

Randy Wolf, making his first career playoff start, was shaky and wild all night. He loaded the bases with nobody out in the first inning, but managed to escape allowing only one run. Leaving men on base was a pattern for both teams, as the Dodgers (16) and Cardinals (14) combined to leave a division series record 30 men on base.

Wolf allowed 12 baserunners while only getting 11 outs. Thankfully for the Dodgers, Chris Carpenter also wasn't sharp, and they were able to capitalize. A Matt Kemp home run in the first inning gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead that they would never relinquish. The Dodgers pecked away the rest of the game, tacking on single runs in the third, fifth, and sixth innings. Carpenter allowed 14 baserunners while getting his 15 outs.

Jeff Weaver relieved Wolf in the fourth, getting out of yet another bases loaded jam, and ended up earning the win for his four-out effort. Weaver has won each of the last two playoff games in which he has pitched, one for the Cardinals and one against. He won the clinching game five of the 2006 World Series before tonight.

All in all the Dodger bullpen allowed just five hits and a run, striking out five while walking none over their 5.1 innings of work. Jonathan Broxton got the final four outs for the save.

James Loney had two hits, and has had at least one hit in all nine postseason games he has started in his career. He had one of the two hits with runners in scoring position, but his single to left didn't score Andre Ethier, who was rightfully held at third base by Larry Bowa. Lifetime in the postseason, Loney is hitting .395/.465/.553.

The Dodgers got 22 men on base tonight, via 12 hits, eight walks, and two times being hit by a pitch. This was the third highest total men on base in Dodger postseason history:

Game	Opponent	Hits	BB	HBP	TOB
1956 WS, Gm 2	Yankees	12	11	0	23
1974 NLCS, Gm 4	Pirates	12	11	0	23
2009 NLDS, Gm 1	Cardinals	12	8	2	22

The Dodgers take a 1-0 series lead into tomorrow's game, with their best pitcher on the mound. Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright figures to be a stellar playoff match-up. Remember, tomorrow's game starts at 3:07pm, ensuring a sharp decline in Southern California workforce productivity.

Oh, by the way: the Kevin Baxter reverse jinx is alive and well.

WP - Jeff Weaver (1-0): 1.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 strikeout

LP - Chris Carpenter (0-1): 5 IP, 9 hits, 4 runs, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts

Sv - Jonathan Broxton (1): 1.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 2 strikeouts

Box Score

SB Nation - Jeff Weaver

Worst New York Yankees of the Decade

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Cashman's moves

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Free Agents (13+1)

Options (2)

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Under Contract (4)

Under Team Control (15)

Dodgers Division Series In Review

NLDS Stats

Padilla, Dodgers Look To Close Out Cardinals

Dodgers Cash In Gift, Send Cardinals To Brink Of Offseason Holliday

Dodgers Win Opener, Beat Cardinals 5-3