SB Nation - Sean Green

On Josh Fields

Jeff — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:48:58 -0000

The little guy out of Georgia got his first AFL action today, and in so doing also got his first exposure to PITCHfx. Of the 20 pitches he threw, 19 were detected, and here's what he flashed:

Type	n	Speed	pfx	pfz
Fastball	11	93.1	-2.4	12.8
Curveball	8	80.6	1.9	-6.7

pfx corresponding to horizontal movement and pfz corresponding to vertical movement, as usual.

Fields was as advertised, a power righty with a fastball that gets into the mid-90s and a strong curve that he'll throw in any count. Nothing in there comes as a surprise. What's interesting to note is that, at least this afternoon, his pitches didn't have much horizontal movement. You'll see a lot of righty fastballs range between -4 and -10 and a lot of righty curveballs range between +3 and +8 (or so). Fields, however, stayed closer to zero, working mostly on the up-down plane and not throwing a lot of tail. (Remember that the numbers refer to deviation, in inches, from a pitch thrown with no spin, and that a negative pfx means the pitch tailed in to righty hitters and away from lefties.)

This shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise, either - it's a function of Fields' arm slot. It's just neat to see it in numbers. Where a lot of guys throw three-quarters and some prefer to drop down, Fields is one of those pure overhand guys, a guy who throws on top of his shoulder and unleashes his stuff on a downward plane, or at least as much of a downward plane as a little person like Fields can manage. When you throw over the top, it's difficult to generate the sort of spin necessary to make balls break left or right. So Fields gets by with a hard and literally almost straight fastball and a curve that travels along a similar path before breaking off the table. Read that sentence over again and you can see what makes him so tricky to hit.

Another thing to consider about Fields' arm slot - remember how Sean Green had a lot of trouble against lefties? Green threw from a sidearm slot that confounded righties but gave lefties a good look at the ball. The slot also wasn't conducive to generating good movement against opposite-handed hitters. By coming over the top, though, Fields should be somewhat immune to exaggerated splits, being similarly effective against righties and lefties alike. He probably won't slaughter righties the way some specialists do, but by not having the splits/exposure problem of many of his brethren, it's easy to see why he's always been considered a future closer. He has the stuff and mechanics such that he shouldn't have to pitch around any batter*, no matter on which side of the plate he's standing.

* if he learns to throw strikes

2009 Mets Transaction Register, Part 1

Eric Simon — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:01:02 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Who is he thanking: Poseiden or Ra? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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The wretched 2009 season is over, so enter a glut of retrospectives, commentary, and analyses chronicling the whole mess. We'll kick things off by taking a look back at the moves -- trades and signings -- the Mets made since the 2008 season ended unceremoniously (for the Mets, anyway). There's a lot to wade through, so we're going to break this into at least two parts.

November 18, 2008

Signed Andy Green: Andy saw just five plate appearances with the Mets in 2009, spending most of the season with Triple-A Buffalo, where he hit .259./.330/.379 with a .326 wOBA and .5 hWAR. This now qualifies as the most anyone has ever written about Andy Green.

December 3, 1998

Signed Nelson Figueroa: Figgy had a 3.07 tRA in 112 innings pitched with Buffalo and a 5.06 tRA in 58 innings with the Mets. He made the league minimum (less if you consider the time spent on a minor league deal), and has generally been pretty mediocre in his two seasons since returning to the states. He's a useful guy to keep around Triple-A to make the occasional emergency start, and might even be passable as a swingman/mop jockey.

December 9, 2008

Signed Francisco Rodriguez for 3 years/$37 million plus vesting 2012 option worth $17.5 million: We've already covered this. The guaranteed money is probably too much for a good reliever with diminishing velocity, declining strikeout rates, and spotty control, but the overlooked option makes this a brutal deal for the Mets. It seemed like a good idea at the time, ubt unless Frankie's arm falls off the Mets will be on the hook for $46 million over the next three seasons, the mere thought of which just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Rodriguez is hardly a bad pitcher, he's just not a great pitcher, and the Mets are paying him to be brilliant. They might be able to swap him for someone else's bad contract -- Milton Bradley's name continues to come up -- but I don't think the Mets are down on Rodriguez at all, let alone as nauseated as we are.

December 11, 2008

Drafted Darren O'Day from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft: This looked like a pretty good move for the Mets at the time, though O'Day only pitched three innings before being waived to make room for Figueroa to make a start in Mike Pelfrey's absence. Few tears were cried over O'Day's departure, until he went on to strike out 54 in 55.2 innings with the Rangers while posting a 2.83 tRA, 11.8% swinging strike rate and a sub-1.00 WHIP. His .244 BABIP might be unsustainably low, but the Mets' loss was the Rangers' gain.

Traded Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Joe Smith, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in a three-team deal with the Mariners and Indians, getting back J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed: Ugh. This one looks worse with each passing day. Green is probably the best player going to the Mets in this deal. Putz was spotty and then injured, and his outlook for 2010 is questionable. He'll pitch, I assume, but the Mets hold an $8.6 million club option with a $1 million buyout, and his return to Queens is hardly guaranteed. Reed was worth -.7 WAR with the Mets in 2009, and is apparently terrible at everything. Endy got hurt but he's Endy which just makes this trade worse for reasons both rational (his leather-flashing puts Rob Halford to shame) and irrational (he's Endy!). Joe Smith was so-so with the Indians; he's a younger, slighty shabbier Sean Green. Carp had a decent season with Triple-A Tacoma and hit .315/.415/.463 in 65 plate appearances with the Mariners. Vargas was nothing special, and managed to allow 16 homeruns in 91.2 innings. Heilman was traded in a separate deal from Seattle to the Cubs, and was about what you'd expect (good strikeouts, too many walks, mirthless scowl). Carrera had a .408 wOBA with Double-A West Tenn. Cleto made eight starts with Single-A Clinton, striking out 24 and walking eleven in 25.1 innings. If Putz had stayed healthy and effective things would look a whole lot different, but as it stands this deal gets worse with each passing day.

December 23, 2008

Signed Omir Santos: We rag on Santos here a lot, mostly because he's bad, but also because the Mets think he's actually good. The truth is that he's pretty bad, at hitting at least, but the Mets paid him nothing and he was worth almost half a win with his bat, and he might be pretty good with the glove, too. The truth is that the Mets could do worse than Santos in a backup role next year, but the frightening reality is that he may be more than that.

January 9, 2009

Signed Tim Redding for 1 year/$2.25 million: Looked like a decent deal for an average starting pitcher. Then he missed the beginning of the season with a shoulder problem. Then he was below average for 120 innings with the Mets. Whatever. I'm not losing any sleep over this one. It was a pretty good one-year gamble.

January 13, 2009

Signed Alex Cora for 1 year/$2 million: A .291 wOBA and -3.7 UZR in 82 games, the best thing you can say about him is that he had the good sense to get hurt and not further hamper the Mets with his sub-replacement ballplaying.

January 16, 2009

Signed Casey Fossum: Appeared in two games for Buffalo and three for the Mets, doing little of anything worth mentioning. Spent most of the season with Triple-A Iowa in the Cubs' system.

January 20, 2009

Signed Cory Sullivan for 1 year/$600k: Posted a semi-respectable .332 wOBA in 156 plate appearances with the Mets, but was unspectacular in the outfield. FanGraphs has him worth $400k, so this signing was hardly a disaster. Nothing to get too excited about either, I suppose.

Justin Maxwell Hits A Walk-Off Grand Slam!!! Washington Nationals Win 7-4, Sweep New York Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Justin Maxwell cleans the shaving creamfromn his face after hitting a grand slam in the ninth inning against the New York Mets in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 7-4. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!!!!!

• Justin Maxwell works the count full with the bases loaded and two down in the ninth with NY ahead 4-3, and J-Max takes the Mets' high-priced closer Francisco Rodriguez deeeeeep to left and GONE for a walk-off Grand Slam in the last home game of the season in Nationals Park...DO YOU BELIEVE!!!!

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

See How The Mets Fans Took It At: Amazin' Avenue.

Check Out the Post Game And The Full Game Report (You Know, For The Completists), AFTER THE JUMP!!!

• Shadows from the stadium lights and the upper deck of Nationals Park are stretched in a large swath across the field of play from the left field grass, over third, the mound and wrapping around first as DC lefty John Lannan starts the final home game of the season against the New York Mets with a scoreless frame that Mets’ starter Tim Redding matches.

• Jeff Francoeur thinks for a moment that he’s hit a two-run HR to left off John Lannan in the top of the second, but it’s ruled a double upon further review, though the two runners who would have scored if it had been called correctly as a HR cross anyway when Fernando Tatis follows with a sac fly to right and Omir Santos hits an RBI single. 2-0 NY after two.

• Mets’ right-hander Tim Redding retires the first ten batters he faces before Elijah Dukes singles up the middle with one down in the fourth. Redding strands Dukes, but the Nationals finally get on the board in the fifth. Josh Willingham hits a leadoff single to center, moves to second when Josh Bard walks, third when Ian Desmond grounds out, and the Hammer comes home on a sac fly by Alberto Gonzalez to make it 2-1 NY after five.

• E: 140, 141...Angel Pagan hits a weak grounder to short with one down in the sixth, and Ian Desmond misplays what should have been the second out. E: 140. One out later, David Wright rrrrips a grounder to third, and Ryan Zimmerman sidesteps it and tries to snatch it with his glove and misses, E: 141. OUTCOME: Two on, two out. Carlos Beltran singles to center to score Pagan, 3-1 Mets’ lead after five and a half.

• THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! Ryan Zimmerman gives the DC Faithful reason to believe with a solo shot to center off Mets’ reliever Bobby Parnell in the eighth inning. Zimmerma---THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! hits his 33rd of ‘09 to make it 3-2 NY.

• E: 142. Ryan Zimmerman’s always had a habit of side-stepping hard hit grounders and trying to snap it up with his glove, but he’s missed two tonight and it might be time to start getting in front of them, cause his 17th error costs DC another run. OUTCOME: Jeff Francoeur reaches on the Zimmerman error and takes second. Fernando Tatis singles Frenchy over to third, and Omir Santos puts a perfect hit and run single behind the runner at second to score Francoeur for 4-2 NY lead...

• And Now The Epic Bottom Of The Ninth...

The New York Mets gave Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year/$37 M dollar deal to close games for them, and the hard-throwing right-hander, who set the Major League record for saves last season, was called upon in the ninth tonight with the Mets desperate for a win against the pesky Washington Nationals who were threatening to sweep and seriously embarrass New York. Rodriguez, who'd converted 34 of 40 save opportunities this season, started Alberto Gonzalez with a 91 mph heater for a called strike and followed with a change that Gonzalez ripped to short and beat to first, sliding in headfirst ahead of Wilson Valdez's throw. Pinch hitter Mike Morse worked the count full in the next at bat and lined a K-Rod change back up the middle. Willie Harris fouled off one bunt attempt before getting a successful sac down to move Gonzalez and pinch runner Jorge Padilla into scoring position for Elijah Dukes, who worked the count full and took a gutsy ball four to load the bases for Ryan Zimmerman. Zim K'd swinging on the third pitch he saw, (curve for a called strike, fastball fouled off and an 0-2 change), to bring up Adam Dunn. The Big Walky battled K-Rod to a full count and took three straight out of the zone for a bases loaded walk and a one-run game which NY still led 4-3. Enter Justin Maxwell:

• Justin Maxwell...(1) Took a curve for ball one from Francisco Rodriguez then watched as a (2) second curve dropped in and the veteran hit the low outside corner with a (3) fastball for a called strike two. A four-seam fastball followed (4) that Maxwell took for ball two, 2-2, and then fouled off a fastball (5) and took a change outside (6) and looow to work the count full against K-Rod. 4-seam fastball up high (7), fouled off, four-seam fastball down low, (8) fouled off, and then a third straight fastball (9) that gets LAUNCHED TO LEFT AND GONE!!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!!! Justin Maxwell wins it with a walk-off Grand SLAM!!! Nationals win, 7-4!!!

FULL GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 158 Of 162.

Josh Willingham takes a knee to catch a low line drive from Angel Pagan. Anderson Hernandez makes Willingham spring to his left and leap up for a second hard-hit line out. David Wright flies to right and Elijah Dukes stares into the sun and makes the catch...Jeff Francoeur catches the first out for Tim Redding off Willie Harris’ bat. Elijah Dukes goes the other way with a high fly to right. Ryan Zimmerman swings through a high fastball to end the first inning.

Carlos Beltran walks to start the second and Jeff Francoeur lines one off the very top of the wall for what might be a HR? They’re taking a look. It’s ruled a double. Fernando Tatis flies out to right, Elijah Dukes tries for a throw home, but has no chance, 1-0 NY. Francoeur takes third on the bad throw. Omir Santos scores Francoeur with a single to center. 2-0 Mets. Lannan gets the DP grounder from Wilson Valdez, Alberto Gonzalez to Ian Desmond to Adam Dunn, double play...Adam Dunn flies out to left field for the first out of DC’s second. Josh Willingham grounds weakly to short. Josh Bard pushes Angel Pagan back to the track to end the bottom of the frame.

Tim Redding starts the third against Lannan with a ground ball to third for the first out. Angel Pagan lines out to Ian Desmond. Anderson Hernandez sends Elijah Dukes breaking back but he makes catch to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond’s grounder to short is cut off by David Wright, who fires to first. Alberto Gonzalez grounds out to short. John Lannan is the ninth-straight Nationals’ batter retired.

David Wright skies one to Dukes in right. Carlos Beltran’s way out in front of a two-strike change. Jeff Francoeur grounds to third, Zimmerman snaps it up and throws to first to end NY’s fourth...Willie Harris hits a high fly ball to center, Carlos Beltran makes the catch. Elijah Dukes singles up the middle to break up Redding’s streak of ten-straight set down. Jeff Francoeur avoids the stands that stick out into right and catches a foul ball from Zimmerman. Adam Dunn just pulls a long fly foul and ends up lining out to first to end the fourth.

John Lannan throws a high two-strike fastball by Fernando Tatis. Omir Santos grounds out Ian Desmond at short. WIlson Valdez rolls the first pitch out to third and Ryan Zimmerman’s throw ends the Mets’ fifth...Josh Willingham starts DC’s fifth with a sharp single to center. Josh Bard works a walk. Ian Desmond hits a swinging sac bunt toward first to advance both runners. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to center to score Willingham from third, 2-1 NY. John Lannan slaps a two-out single through short. Willie Harris K’s swinging through a fastball outside to end the fifth.

Tim Redding K’s in the first AB of the sixth. Angel Pagan grounds to short, and Ian Desmond gets a bad hop and misplays it. E: 140. Anderson Hernandez pops out to Dukes in right after a long AB. David Wright rips a grounder through Zimmerman at third. E:141. Carlos Beltran singles up the middle to score Pagan from second, 3-1 New York. Jeff Francoeur flies out to right...Elijah Dukes drops a surprise bunt down the third base line and David Wright can’t make a play. Ryan Zimmerman pops out unproductively. Adam Dunn's up when a wild pitch moves Dukes to second. Dunn flies out unproductively to center. Josh Willingham swings at the first pitch and grounds out to end the frame.

Fernando Tatis lines to left and beats the throw to second for a leadoff double. Omir Santos flies out to right field. WIlson Valdez takes a two-out walk and Gary Sheffield gets pinch hit intentionals to bring up Angel Pagan. Pagan grounds to Ian Desmond, who takes the force at second...Bobby Parnell vs Bard. Bard battles for 10 pitches and eventually walks. Ian Desmond grounds into a force at second in the next AB. Desmond avoids a ground ball from Alberto Gonzalez and Anderson Hernandez tries to get the force at second, but his toss is late. Two runners safe. Pinch hitter Cristian Guzman pops out unproductively to third. Willie Harris works the count full. Willie Harris grounds out to second to end the seventh.

Zach Segovia’s on to pitch the top of the eighth. Anderson Hernandez K’s swinging to start the inning. David Wright grounds out to third. Carlos Beltran pops out to the infield and Ian Desmond’s catch ends NY’s eighth...Elijah Dukes gets jammed and grounds out to the mound. Parnell vs Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! HR to straight center, 3-2 NY. Pedro Feliciano comes on to face Dunn. Adam Dunn pops out. Sean Green vs Willingham. Josh Willingham grounds to third, David Wright fields and throws...by first, Hammer is safe, and he takes second. Justin Maxwell runs for the Hammer. Josh Bard works another walk to put two on for Ian Desmond. Desmond grounds up the middle, Anderson Hernandez gets there and tosses to second for the inning-ending force.

Jeff Francoeur vs Segovia in the ninth. Francoeur grounds sharply to third that Zimmerman can’t come up with, Zimmerman drops it and throws way over first, E: 142. Frenchy takes second. Fernando Tatis lines a single over short. Omir Santos smacks a hit and run single through second to bring Francoeur home, 4-2 NY. Wilson Valdez grounds back to the mound. Segovia gets one out at first. Ron Villone replaces Segovia and gets a weak grounder toward first from pinch hitter Daniel Murphy grounds out to first. Ryan Zimmerman throws out Angel Pagan to end the Mets’ half of the ninth...Alberto Gonzalez singles to short, deep in the hole and Gonalez beats Wilson Valdez's throw to first. Mike Morse makes a pinch hit appearance, and he singles to center!!! Jorge Padilla comes on to run. Two on for Willie Harris. Harris gets a sac bunt down. Second and third for Dukes!! Dukes works the count full and walks. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging through an 0-2 slider. Adam Dunn works the count full, and walks in a run!! 4-3 ballgame. Justin Maxwell works the count full, fouls off two fastballs, and then OH LORD!! IT’S GONE!! J-MAX takes K-ROD Deeeeeeeeeeep to left and GONE!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!! GRAND SLAM!!! THE NATIONALS WIN!! THE NATIONALS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7-4 final. Francisco Rodriguez is on to end it. Alberto Gonzalez reaches safely on a grounder deep in the hole at short.

Nationals now 55-103!!!

In Praise Of Sean Green

James Kannengieser — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:00:55 -0000

On the surface, Sean Green has not had a very good season. An ERA just south of 5, initially wearing the same number as Aaron Heilman and several high profile late game meltdowns will create such a perception. However, as Sam pointed out earlier, things are not what they seem. Here is a look at Green's numbers this year compared to 2008, when he was a ~1 WAR pitcher and a valuable piece of the Mariners bullpen:

Season	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	FB%	FIP	xFIP
2008	7.06	4.10	0.34	63.3%	19.5%	3.65	4.08
2009	7.20	4.15	0.69	66.3%	19.9%	4.28	3.96

The seasons are nearly identical, except for a slightly higher groundball rate and doubled home run rate in 2009. It appears he was somewhat lucky as far as surrendering the long ball in 2008 (6.1% HR/FB %) and unlucky in 2009 (12.8% HR/FB%), demonstrated by the similar xFIPs.

An ongoing concern for Green is his struggle against lefthanded hitters. For his career, lefties have knocked him around at a poor but not terrible .273/.398/.422 clip. This season, they have hit .232/.372./.424, a similar line which highlights his main issue vs. lefties: walks. He's a borderline ROOGY, but if used properly can be effective as a non-specialist. He can navigate an inning vs. mostly righties with a lefty batter mixed in, preferably not a Chase Utley or Adam Dunn type. A look at the lefty batters who have homered off Green this year shows that maybe he hasn't been set up for success (Adrian Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Ben Zobrist).

An average of Fangraphs and Statcorner WAR says he has been worth about .5 WAR in 2009, and going forward it looks closer to .7-.8 WAR over a full season. Relief pitcher valuation is an inexact science, but this is perfectly acceptable from a pitcher making $471K this season who doesn't figure to earn much of a raise next year. A bullpen role for Green means one less roster spot that Omar Minaya might fill with John Grabow or Brandon Lyon for 3 years, $10 million.

I'll leave you with a batter's view of Green's release point earlier this season compared to where it's been recently. Analysis of this will come at another time:

(Click to embiggen)

Pedro Martinez Is Still Good: Phillies 1, Mets 0

Eric Simon — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 03:02:17 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Looked like the Pedro of old. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Not that it really matters much to point fingers, but without a doubt we can hang this loss on the offense. Tim Redding held the Phillies to just one run on three hits and a couple of walks, finishing six innings and pitching about as well as could be expected agaist a very good team in a very tough ballpark. Sean Green and Pedro Feliciano each contributed a hitless inning of relief.

Unfortunately for the Mets, Pedro Martinez looked like the Pedro of 2005-ish, allowing six hits and two walks while striking out seven in eight innings. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel left Martinez out there for 130 pitches, and even tried to take him out with two outs in the eighth but was Grady Littled back to the dugout. This one worked out better than Little's rebuff, as Daniel Murphy was thrown out trying to advance to third on a ball in the dirt, ending the Mets' eighth inning threat.

Ryan Madsen allowed just one baserunner -- a one out single to Brian Schneider -- in shutting the Mets down in the ninth. The Phillies took three of the four games in the series, though the Mets remain in seventh place overall in next year's draft standings. The teams ahead of them are world class losers, so the Mets will really have to pull together over the season's final three weeks if they want to out-suck the Diamondbacks and Orioles of the baseball world.

Monday is an off day as the Mets travel south to take on the Braves beginning Tuesday. Pat Misch will take on Atlanta rookie Tommy Hanson.

Haiku by Howard Megdal

Vintage performace
Sees only heartless abstain
from vote for Pedro

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* The Good Phight Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Tim Redding, +18.7% WPA, Anderson Hernandez, +12.1% WPA
Big losers: Cory Sullivan, -21.2% WPA, Jeremy Reed, -15.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright leadoff double in sixth, +9.6% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Francoeur strikeout in ninth, -9.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +26.6% WPA
Total batter WPA: -76.6% WPA
GWRBI!: Chase Utley

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	MetsFan4Decades	35
2	fxcarden	30
3	Mex_17	20
4	Evan_S	9
5	metsguy234	5
6	Eric Simon	4
7	dcrockett17	3
8	Jsz	2
9	James Kannengieser	1
10	firejerrynow	1

Best Win Of The Season: Cardinals 12, Mets 7

Eric Simon — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:17:16 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

We win! We win!. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Wow. What a win! This game is a perfect example of why I love baseball so much. Joel Pineiro, who has been so good for most of this season, didn't have anything resembling his best stuff tonight and the Mets made him pay. They didn't hit any out of the park (Jo-Po is a severe groundball pitcher, you know), but they bunched hits together in the third and fifth innings, plating three and four runs, respectively.

The Cardinals managed to keep things close, scoring single runs in the first (Ryan Ludwick homerun), fifth (Matt Holliday RBI single) and eighth (Pujols homerun), and hung a two-spot on Johan Santana in the fourth inning thanks to RBI hits by Ludwick and Rick Ankiel (he used to be a pitcher, you know).

Still, things were looking pretty grim as the Mets carried a 7-5 lead into the ninth and had Francisco Rodriguez (or, K-Rod as I like to call him) out there to close the game. The Cards were ready for him, as Ankiel led off the inning with a double and a rejuventaed Julio Lugo doubled him home. Colby Rasmus struck out swinging, but Captain Clutch (no offense to Mr. Jeter) Skip Schumaker singled home Lugo to tie the game. The Redbirds loaded the bases following a Pujols walk and Holliday fielder's choice, but Ludwick popped out to end the inning (drats!).

Kyle "The King" McClellan held the Mets in check in the bottom of the ninth, and it was off to extra innings we went!

The Mets brought out some dude named Socks to start the tenth, and he was really, really good, getting Yadier "Effing" Molina to ground out leading off. Then for whatever reason, Jerry Manuel took the super awesome Socks guy out of the game and brought in Pedro Feliciano, who I think used to pitch in Japan. An Ankiel infield single, Lugo single and Rasmus walk loaded the bases for Mark DeRosa (he's from Joysey!), but Manuel (the Mets' manager) must be a fan of Tony La Russa because he made another pitching change, bringing in Sean Green (the Jewish guy?) to face D-Rose. I guess DeRosa must've made some quip about Green's yarmulka or something because Green wound up and hit him with the first pitch. Seemed like a pretty stupid thing to do, what with the bases loaded and whatnot, but I guess he was just sick and tired of all of the yarmulka jokes.

So the Cards were up 8-7 and Pujols came to the plate with the bases still loaded. Poo fell behind 0-2 very quickly, but he plays the game the right way and sent an 0-2 pitch sailing over the left-centerfield fence for a grand slomboli and gave the Redthings a comfortable 12-7 cushion. That was about it for the Mets, who had already used their best pinch hitter (Socks) as a reliever and couldn't muster more than a couple of baserunners against Ryan Franklin in the bottom of the tenth.

All in all a huge win for the Redblobs, who pull into a virtual (reality!) tie with the Cubs for first place in the central. Kyle Lohse takes on Jon-a-finesse tomorrow at 12:10pm. Be there!

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Viva El Birdos Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Johan Santana (batter), +15.7% WPA, Gary Sheffield, +14.1% WPA
Big losers: Sean Green, -46.0% WPA, Francisco Rodriguez, -27.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Sheffield RBI double in fifth, +25.0% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: DeRosa HBP in tenth, -31.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -85.9% WPA
Total batter WPA: +35.9% WPA
GWRBI!: Mark DeRosa

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by metsguy234; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	metsguy234	158
2	mets81	80
3	firejerrynow	79
4	itsmetsforme	67
5	Kepler	50
6	Abstract NYC	46
7	Hoyadestroya85	45
8	Michkin	45
9	Mex_17	36
10	Prince	34

Wild Green Blunder: Diamondbacks 3, Mets 2

Eric Simon — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:00:50 -0000

I'm not sure how often the best play of a game immediately precedes the worst, but it happened for the Mets in last night's eighth inning. After retiring Stephen Drew on a groundout to end the seventh, Pedro Feliciano stayed on to begin the eighth, allowing a leadoff single to center by Gerardo Parra. Sean Green was summoned to spell Feliciano and quickly showed everyone that he had nothing, hitting Justin Upton and then walking Mark Reynolds to load the bases. Miguel Montero, who earlier had launched a prodigious blast off the right-field facade for his tenth homerun of the year, pulled a Green offering to Daniel Murphy at first, who fired home for one out and scampered back to first to retrieve Omir Santos's return throw to complete the 3-2-3 double-play. Murphy pumped his blue-collared fist, congratulated Green on a job well done, and gave the ball back to his pitcher to finish out the inning. Green chucked the next pitch wildly toward the plate, and Santos, unable to corral it on one bounce, scampered after it while Upton glided home to give the Diamondbacks the 3-2 lead that would be their ultimate margin of victory.

Offensively, the Mets drew six walks and collected four hits off of Doug Davis but managed to score just two runs on solo homeruns by Murphy and David Wright. They stranded seven runners in Davis's six innings, including two in the fourth and three in the sixth. The latter began with Wright's blast, and sprinkled around outs by Jeff Francoeur and Omir Santos, Fernando Tatis doubled and Murphy and Alex Cora each drew walks. Jerry Manuel made the proper move by pinch-hitting for Livan Hernandez with the bases full and the game tied 2-2. Manuel went with Angel Berroa, who is terrible, and I guess Manuel's only defense is that Berroa is righty and Davis is lefty. He could have gone with Cory Sullivan, who is also terrible but probably not to the extent that Berroa is. He could also have gone with Jeremy Reed, who has only seven at-bats against lefties this season but nevertheless has four hits -- two more than Berroa has in his 18 total at-bats this season. Sullivan was probably the better choice, but not obviously so. So Manuel went with Berroa, who grounded the first Davis offering to short to end the threat. The Mets would have just one baserunner over the final three innings and never really threaten again.

Now's as good a time as any to ask the obvious question: Why is Nick Evans in Triple-A? He would've been the obvious pinch-hit candidate in the sixth, and, while he was by no means assured of coming through in that situation, he'd have been a much better choice than Berroa, Sullivan or anyone else. Reed is the late-innings defensive replacement, so why exactly is Sullivan still with the team when Evans has the brighter future and is actually the better player right now? Roster management fail.

I couldn't help but laugh sadly to myself when the SNY broadcast team went on about how Davis had been a ".500 pitcher" (Keith's words) from 2004 through 2007, when he posted 12-12, 11-11, 11-11, and 13-12 seasons in succession, as if implying that Davis bore the brunt of the responsibility for his records those years. Not a moment later, Gary remarked at how Davis's record had taken a turn this year -- just 5-10 so far -- but that it was hardly his fault because the Diamondbacks' offense gave him very little run support. So frustrating that he seems to get that pitcher wins and losses are really team stats, yet won't hesitate to pray at the alter of those same wins and losses when evaluating any starting pitcher in any other context.

Oliver Perez and Max Scherzer square off at 7:10pm tonight at the Citi.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* AZ Snakepit Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: David Wright, +16.6% WPA, Cory Sullivan, +9.9% WPA
Big losers: Angel Pagan, -32.6% WPA, Jeff Francoeur, -15.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Montero 3-2-3 double-play in eighth, +27.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Upton scores on Green wild pitch in eight, -22.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +3.1% WPA
Total batter WPA: -53.1% WPA
GWRBI!: None

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Jadden Hopkins; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	Jadden Hopkins	73
2	fxcarden	57
3	itsmetsforme	56
4	Schmidtxc	54
5	KeithsMoustache	54
6	MetsGod	50
7	Abstract NYC	36
8	Kepler	35
9	MikeSilvaNYBD	32
10	Pat Andriola	26

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Sean Green And Francisco Rodriguez Talk Nicknames

James Kannengieser — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 10:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

I gets the K's, so they calls me K-Rod.

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Location: Mets bullpen, June 28th, 9:15 PM, 3rd inning of Mets-Yankees
Situation: Sean Green and Francisco Rodriguez conversing

Sean: I've been meaning to ask you this for awhile - do you like the nickname "K-Rod"?
Francisco: I love it. Simple, effective, very clever. Why do you ask?
Sean: Because I think it stinks. I agree that it's simple, but that's a bad thing. I suppose it's better than "F-Rod" but not by much.
Francisco: You're just jealous. I bet you don't like "A-Rod" or "F-Mart" either.
Sean: Correct. "F-Mart" might be the worst nickname in the history of the universe, no hyperbole. A nickname should take more than 3 seconds to come up with. "K-Rod" probably took 10 seconds, so I guess it's not on the suckitude level of "F-Mart". There was a nickname lull for awhile in baseball, but there's been a small renaissance lately. Failcoeur. Mexicutioner. Zorilla. These are all witty or original and fine examples to be followed. They tell us a little something about a player, instead of just lazily abbreviating names. Anyways, I'm going to pronounce it "Krod" from now on. No hyphen. It'll be my simple way of mocking it. No offense intended to you Frankie, you're the tops.
Francisco: Fine with me Sean, but I think you need a nickname.

:::ESPN's Chris Berman, at the game with the Baseball Tonight crew, makes his way to the bullpen:::

Chris: Hey guys, the Schwam is here! Did someone say nicknames?
Sean: How did you get in here?
Chris: I was bumblin' and stumblin' and circling the wagons and here I am!
Sean: That doesn't answer my perfectly reasonable question.
Chris: K-Rod, ask and ye shall receive. Your friend will be known as Sean Green "Eggs and Ham"!
Sean: No I won't.
Francisco: Perfect, I loved "The Cat in the Hat"!
Sean: I don't even know where to begin.
Chris: Look who's batting - it's Brett "The Constant" Gardner. And he's facing Livan "La Vida Loca" Hernandez!

:::Sean storms off, annoyed:::

Sean: [on bullpen phone, calling Jerry Manuel] Hey Jerry it's Sean.
Jerry: Sean Green "Eggs and Ham"? What's on your mind boy?
Sean: I need you to shank someone. This fat, annoying, bald guy is heckling us in the bullpen.
Jerry: I got your back - I'll send Santos out there. He has experience running between the dugout and bullpen during games. Also, tell Feliciano he's coming in.
Sean: But it's only the 3rd inning. And Livan hasn't given up any runs.
Jerry: You questioning me boy?! You want to suffer the same fate as your fat heckling friend?
Sean: Uhh-

:::Omir Santos mistakenly whacks Sean with his bat. The swing is so quick that there are no witnesses:::

Friday's Roto Round Up: Is Jason Marquis An Elite Starter?

raygu — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:30:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

6 months ago: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jason Marquis works against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second inning of a baseball game on Friday, June 19, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Friday's roto round up is highlighted by a 2 HR game by Cubs 1Bman Derrek Lee and Kenshin Kawakami out-dueling Daisuke Matsusaka in Boston.

SP, Jason Marquis, COL-Marquis threw 8 2/3rd quality innings vs the Pirates on Friday to earn his 9th win of the season. Color me surprised that Marquis could move to a hitters park and pitch well enough to earn an All-Star selection. Marquis does not strike out many batters as evidenced by his 44/34 K/BB rate, so I wouldn't call him an elite starting pitcher, but he has pitched very well this season.

SS, Rafael Furcal, LAD-Furcal is getting his stroke back. As I write this, he takes Joe Saunders deep to left for his 3rd HR of the season. Furcal is only 4 of 8 in the SB department this year, disappointing many roto owners this year. Baseball HQ was pretty high on Furcal coming into the season.

1B, Derrek Lee, CHC-Lee his two solo HRs, one off former Cub Kerry Wood, to give him 10 on the season to go along with 33 RBI and a .285 Avg. Many roto owners, and baseball writers, were calling for Lee's demise about a month ago, but he has turned his season around. Now if only Milton Bradley and Geovany Soto can hit to their expectations, the Cubs may get back on track.

SP, Andy Pettite, NYY-Pettite dominated the Marlins over 7 innings last night tow in his 7th game of the season. He allowed only 3 hits and struck out 7. Pettite is quietly having a very good season, yet his ERA is in the low 4's.

Braves Bullpen-the Braves bullpen of Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez held the Red Sox hitless for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings and struck out two batters apiece.

OF, Garret Anderson, ATL-Anderson went 3 for 3 with 4 RBI on Friday in the Braves 8-2 win over the Red Sox. He has hit in 7 of his last 8 games. The Braves should still look for another OFer with the way the Phillies and Mets are playing of late.

SP, Daisuke Matsusaka, BOS-Matsusaka gave up 12 baserunners and 6 runs in 4 innings vs the slumping Braves last night. He has given up 77 baserunners in 35 innings of work this season. How long before manager Terry Francona puts him in the bullpen?

MR, Sean Green, NYM-it appears Green is the Mets new setup man for Francisco Rodriguez, as he struck out 3 in 1 inning of work last night vs the Rays. Bobby Parnell pitched the 7th and gave up 2 runs for the second straight appearance. Green has a 28/14 K/BB rate in 31 innings of work, so he may not keep the setup role too long unless he can improve the K/BB rate.

SP, Fernando Nieve, NYM-Nieve won his second straight start. He threw 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 run ball, walking 3 and K'ing 4 Rays. It appears Citifield will make alot of pitchers look good this season.

OF, Colby Rasmus, STL-the favorite to win the NL rookie of the year award helped his cause last night going 4 for 5 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI. Rasmus raised his Avg to .285 on the season

OF, Andrew McCutchen, PIT-McCutchen had two more hits on Friday to raise his Avg. to .338. Could all the prospect experts be wrong about McCutchen? He could push Colby Rasmus for NL rookie of the year if he can continue hitting .300. He now has 10 RBI in 68 ABs, and has hit in 13 of 15 games since being called up from AAA Indianapolis.

MR. Manny Corpas, COL-Corpas could be headed to the DL with elbow inflamation. He arrived at Coors Field last night with a swollen elbow. Will this prevent the Rockies from dealing Huston Street? For the moment, yes, but that could change in a few weeks.

Poll

Are you buying Jason Marquis' hot start?

Yes, he is perfect for Coors Field.

43 votes

No, he has benefitted from a very good bullpen.

27 votes

70 votes | Poll has closed