SB Nation - Tim Fedroff

Transactions: Huff, Maine, Phelps, Rottino Recalled

Ryan — Tue, 04 Sep 2012 16:01:10 -0000

Recalled LHP David Huff, LHP Scott Maine, IF Cord Phelps, and OF Vinny Rottino from Columbus (AAA)

With the AAA season over, these players represent most of the Columbus players on the 40-man roster. The exceptions are Kevin Slowey, who is on the AAA DL, Lars Anderson, and Juan Diaz. I'm surprised that Diaz wasn't called up, as he'd already played with the Indians and had a great finish to his season (hitting .306/.342/.458 with Columbus). Also, it looks like Tim Fedroff will not be added to the 40-man roster, though I think he deserves a look.

A quick review of the four callups:

David Huff, after a brief bout of success in 2011, has seen several pitchers jump him on the depth chart, and for good reason: he's allowed 155 hits in 134.0 AAA innings, including 27 home runs (and that isn't due to his home park - 15 of them came on the road). He shouldn't be getting too many scheduled innings, but could be used as a long-man if a starter gets pulled early. I'd be shocked if he's on the 40-man roster next spring.
Scott Maine was acquired on waivers last week. The 27-year-old left-hander threw 20.2 innings with the Cubs this season, and although he had control problems, had good strikeout and hit rates. The Indians have been looking for left-handed relievers all season, so perhaps Maine will get into a couple of high-leverage situations before the season is over.
Cord Phelps had a nice season (.820 OPS overall, .888 at home, .754 on the road) and may get some starts at second or short against left-handed pitchers. He's probably the reason the Indians didn't recall Juan Diaz.
Vinny Rottino probably won't get many at-bats, as the Indians recently recalled Thomas Neal and Russ Canzler. The 32-year-old hasn't spent much time at the major-league level in his 10-year career, so this callup is more a reward than an audition.

Transactions: Neal, Barnes, Canzler Called Up

Ryan — Sat, 01 Sep 2012 20:00:19 -0000

Purchased the Contract of OF Thomas Neal and Recalled him from Akron (AA)

Recalled LHP Scott Barnes and 1B/OF Russ Canzler from Columbus (AAA)

Columbus has been eliminated from playoff contention, it's not surprising to see Barnes and Canzler on the first day the rosters expand, but Neal is a bit of surprise. Akron is going to the playoffs, and the Indians tend not to raid a minor-league roster if the team is still in the playoffs. So that the Indians recalled Neal on the first day of September shows (1) what they think of Neal as a prospect and (2) what they think of the current players on the roster.

(Because the Indians designated Shelley Duncan for assignment, they won't have to make a roster move to get Neal on the 40-man roster, though if they needed to, they could have just moved Josh Tomlin to the 60-day Disabled List.)

Neal was acquired last July from the Giants organization in the Orlando Cabrera deal. At the time he was acquired, Neal was playing in the PCL with Fresno, and doing a decent job as a 23-year-old outfielder. But his stock had dropped considerably from 2010, when he was considered a marginal top-100 prospect after hitting .337/.431/.579 in the California League as a 21-year-old. Neal finished the 2011 with Columbus, but suffered a wrist injury which curtailed his effectiveness.

He was on the 40-man roster last winter, but the Indians outrighted him at the end of the spring when they added Jose Lopez and Dan Wheeler to the roster. He thankfully cleared waivers, and the Indians sent him to Akron, down a level from where he played the season before. And though he's stayed there the entire season, it hasn't because he's struggled; Neal has the 9th-highest OPS in the Eastern League (min 200 PA), hitting .314/.400/.467 in a pitcher's league. He's played all three outfield positions this season, so it looks like the Indians are prepping him for a role as a reserve outfielder. He doesn't have an extreme platoon split, actually hitting better against right-handers than left-handers, so I don't think he should be type-cast as a platoon partner, but more as a pure 4th outfielder.

With Shelley Duncan now out of the picture and the DH spot open, Neal should get plenty of at-bats this month even with Tim Fedroff likely to be called up as well. Neither Neal nor Fedroff are premier prospects, but one or both could have a decent major-league career, and with the Indians very thin in the outfield, both players should have a very good opportunity between now and the end of March to make the 2013 roster.

When Barnes was last sent to the minors, I wondered whether the Indians would put him back into the rotation. The Indians elected to keep him in the bullpen, so it looks like that's where he'll stay. His recent appearances have been either really good or bad - he allowed 5 runs to Durham in 1.1 innings, then pitched 3 scoreless innings over two appearances, then allowed 3 runs to Toledo. The Indians have been looking all season for a good left-handed reliever, and I don't think Barnes is going him what they're looking for.

Canzler will be making his Cleveland debut after spending the entire season with Columbus. He hit .265/.328/.487 with the Clippers. He has a huge home/road split in batting average and OBP, but not slugging, which is kind of odd. Canzler can play both infield and outfield corners, but he's probably more suited to first base or DH. He's right-handed, but like Neal, doesn't hit any better versus left-handers than right-handers. But he should be getting most of his starts against southpaws with the Tribe's left-handed heavy lineup.

Thomas Neal Career Minor-League Stats

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP
2006	18	Salem-Keizer	NORW	A-	SFG	50	187	176	26	44	6	2	4	20	1	3	7	44	.250	.289	.375	.664	66	3
2007	19	Giants	ARIZ	Rk	SFG	10	46	39	7	12	3	0	1	4	0	0	5	7	.308	.413	.462	.875	18	0
2008	20	Augusta	SALL	A	SFG	117	497	428	69	118	25	1	15	81	3	4	48	103	.276	.359	.444	.803	190	8
2009	21	San Jose	CALL	A+	SFG	129	559	475	102	160	41	4	22	90	3	0	65	98	.337	.431	.579	1.010	275	12
2010	22	Richmond	EL	AA	SFG	136	585	525	69	153	40	1	12	69	11	5	46	94	.291	.359	.440	.799	231	19
2011	23	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AAA	SFG,CLE	70	277	256	40	74	14	3	2	26	8	6	14	57	.289	.343	.391	.734	100	6
2011	23	Fresno	PCL	AAA	SFG	60	239	220	35	65	13	3	2	25	7	6	13	50	.295	.351	.409	.761	90	6
2011	23	Columbus	IL	AAA	CLE	10	38	36	5	9	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	7	.250	.289	.278	.567	10	0
2012	24	Akron	EL	AA	CLE	117	470	405	77	127	24	1	12	51	11	8	46	71	.314	.400	.467	.867	189	16
7 Seasons						629	2621	2304	390	688	153	12	68	341	37	26	231	474	.299	.376	.464	.840	1069	64
AA (2 seasons)				AA		253	1055	930	146	280	64	2	24	120	22	13	92	165	.301	.377	.452	.829	420	35
AAA (1 season)				AAA		70	277	256	40	74	14	3	2	26	8	6	14	57	.289	.343	.391	.734	100	6
A (1 season)				A		117	497	428	69	118	25	1	15	81	3	4	48	103	.276	.359	.444	.803	190	8
Rk (1 season)				Rk		10	46	39	7	12	3	0	1	4	0	0	5	7	.308	.413	.462	.875	18	0
A- (1 season)				A-		50	187	176	26	44	6	2	4	20	1	3	7	44	.250	.289	.375	.664	66	3
A+ (1 season)				A+		129	559	475	102	160	41	4	22	90	3	0	65	98	.337	.431	.579	1.010	275	12

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2012.

Scott Barnes Career Stats

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	20	SFG-min	A,A-,Rk	3	3	.500	2.06	11	7	43.2	24	11	10	0	12	63		0.824	4.9	0.0	2.5	13.0	5.25
2009	21	SFG-CLE-min	A+,AA	14	5	.737	3.41	27	27	142.1	131	61	54	15	49	138		1.265	8.3	0.9	3.1	8.7	2.82
2010	22	CLE-min	AA	6	11	.353	5.22	26	26	138.0	126	90	80	15	58	127		1.333	8.2	1.0	3.8	8.3	2.19
2011	23	CLE-min	AAA,AA	8	4	.667	3.45	18	17	99.0	85	43	38	12	36	107		1.222	7.7	1.1	3.3	9.7	2.97
2012	24	CLE-min	AAA	2	3	.400	3.98	31	3	52.0	37	26	23	1	23	67		1.154	6.4	0.2	4.0	11.6	2.91
2012	24	CLE	AL	0	0		8.10	7	0	10.0	12	9	9	1	7	10	49	1.900	10.8	0.9	6.3	9.0	1.43
1 Yr				0	0		8.10	7	0	10.0	12	9	9	1	7	10	49	1.900	10.8	0.9	6.3	9.0	1.43
162 Game Avg.				0	0		8.10	68	0	97	117	87	87	10	68	97	49	1.900	10.8	0.9	6.3	9.0	1.43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2012.

Russ Canzler Career Stats

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2004	18	CHC-min	Rk	32	119	105	12	26	2	3	1	13	0	1	9	35	.248	.310	.352	.663		37
2005	19	CHC-min	Rk	49	188	157	22	47	11	3	1	20	1	5	24	41	.299	.387	.427	.814		67
2006	20	CHC-min	A-	73	311	280	49	74	22	4	16	61	7	4	22	70	.264	.319	.543	.862		152
2007	21	CHC-min	A	125	503	460	60	124	24	2	7	54	12	8	35	88	.270	.321	.376	.697		173
2008	22	CHC-min	A+	98	361	326	47	89	22	2	12	59	7	4	27	70	.273	.327	.463	.790		151
2009	23	CHC-min	AA,A+	118	375	333	41	87	23	1	8	49	4	5	38	65	.261	.337	.408	.745		136
2010	24	CHC-min	AA	112	411	355	68	102	28	4	21	66	5	4	46	95	.287	.372	.566	.938		201
2011	25	TBD-min	AAA	131	549	474	78	149	40	4	18	83	5	2	67	129	.314	.401	.530	.930		251
2011	25	TBR	AL	3	5	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	.333	.400	.333	.733	113	1
2012	26	CLE-min	AAA	130	539	487	68	129	36	3	22	79	2	4	46	128	.265	.328	.487	.815		237
1 Yr				3	5	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	.333	.400	.333	.733	113	1
162 Game Avg.				162	270	162	0	54	0	0	0	54	0	0	54	54	.333	.400	.333	.733	113	54

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2012.

Minor League Recap: August 23, 2012

APV — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 19:00:22 -0000

Columbus 3, Toledo 10

Eric Berger got knocked around for six runs in less than three innings, and none of the men who relieved him--Matt Langwell, Loek Van Mil, or Dan Wheeler--could keep the Mudhens off the board, either. Tim Fedroff hit his 12th HR of the season.

Akron 0, Trenton 3

Former Tribe farmhand, Vidal Nuno, shutdown Akron for six innings. Brett Brach pitched well for Akron (6.1IP, 2R, 1BB, 3K) and Bryce Stowell pitched a clean ninth (1K), but Akron could only muster five hits, including a Jesus Aguilar double.

Carolina 5, Potomac 7

Giovanny Urshela and Todd Hankins each had two hits, including a matching double/triple combination, but Carolina's four-run ninth inning rally fell short. Michael Goodnight gave up six runs in six innings as the Mudcats' starter.

Lake County 8, South Bend 5

Lake County 3, South Bend 9

The Captains managed to achieve a double-header split, despite a few terrible bullpen performances. In the opener, Elvis Araujo went 5.1 innings, giving up just one run, before giving way to Manuel Carmona. Carmona ended up giving up four runs before being saved by Enosil Tejeda for the game's final out. In the second game, Francisco Valera came in relief and promptly gave up six runs, putting South Bend out of reach. Jose Ramirez was 3-8 on the day, Francisco Lindor was 3-6 with two walks and a SB and Luigi Martinez was 3-7 with a HR (#11).

Mahoning Valley 1, Batavia 2 (11 innings)

Mahoning Valley got 10 innings of one-run ball from Luis DeJesus, Scott Peoples and Luis Encarnacion, before falling in the 11th. Dorssys Paulino had a single, giving him a hit in every game with Mahoning Valley so far.

AZL Indians 4, AZL Dodgers 2

AZL Indians 1, AZL Dodgers 3

The Goodyear Tribe had strong pitching performances from 2012 HS picks, Mitch Brown (3IP, 2R, 1BB, 4K) and Kieran Lovegrove (4IP, 1R, 2BB, 6K), as well as Felix Sterling (4IP, 0R, 1BB, 6K). Jorge Martinez was 3-6 with a double and a triple. LeVon Washington was 1-4, playing his 3rd game with Goodyear this week.

The Drafts 2005-2010: How bad was it?

APV — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 13:49:00 -0000

The collapse of the Indians season has brought a lot of attention, once again, to the issue of the Indians' overall lack of talent and their struggles in acquiring talent. Much of this attention has been focused on the failure of the Indians' drafts under John Mirabelli during the Shapiro era. Just yesterday, Al Ciammaichella reviewed the Indians' more recent draft performance as part of the "Lazy Sunday" column at TheDiatribe.

The Indians clearly went through a dry spell in their amateur talent acquisition from 1999 through 2008. The club drafted lefthanded pitcher Carsten Charles Sabathia in 1998, then basically sat back and said "C.C., you’ve got this." From 1999-2007, the best player the Indians drafted was Jeremy Guthrie, their first round pick in the 2002 draft. And he went on to have most (all) of his success in cities other than Cleveland.

Indeed, the Indians' drafts were bad. But how bad? And why were they bad? I actually started looking into this in the off-season. What I did was go back through all of the drafts from 2005 to 2010, logging how many top 50 picks every team had, how many eventual major leaguers each team drafted, how many eventual major leaguers each team actually signed, and how many major leaguers each team drafted and signed out of the top 10 rounds in each draft. In addition, I gathered data on the total WAR produced by each team's signings in each draft, how much of that WAR they signed, and how much of that WAR was produced while playing for the drafting team (using B-Ref numbers for WAR).

There are some discrepancies in these data as a result of me doing some of the work earlier in the season and some of it more recently. So players who might have had breakout years this season may, in the minority of cases, not be included in the WAR calculations, but most of the data comes from recent work so I think the overall impact of these discrepancies is likely small. All of the major league draftee data represents pre-2012 numbers, so 2012 debuts are not included. Here are the summary results:

	Cleveland	MLB avg	MLB rank	ALCentral rank
top 50 picks	7	10	t-26th	t-4th
ML drafted	20	18.6	10th	2nd
ML signed	16	15.9	t-10th	2nd
top 10 ML D&S	11	11.8	t-11th	t-2nd
Sign/Draft%	80%	85%	21st	4th
top10 S&D%	69%	76%	20th	3rd
bWAR draft	28.2	28.5	14th	3rd
bWAR sign	3.3	25.5	26th	5th
bWAR actual	4.7	21.6	26th	5th

So what do these numbers mean? Here is a bit of a line by line summary.

The Indians have been terrible. But maybe not entirely in the ways you think they have. First, the Indians have had very few top 50 picks during this time span. In fact, no team has had fewer top 50 picks than Cleveland, which is in a 5-way tie for last in that category. The historical distribution of talent in the baseball draft is extremely top-heavy, so the importance of the Indians lack of high-end draft picks is actually quite important.

The Indians have done a respectable job of identifying and drafting future major league players. With 20 selected during this time span at this point (the number is growing, of course), the Indians sit on the cusp of the upper 1/3 of baseball. They have not always done a good job of prioritizing which picks should be signed, however. While the 16 future major leaguers they have signed still puts them in tie for 10th in the league, the fact that they missed on 20% of their potential future major leaguers (4 of 20) puts them below the major league average. And, as it turns out, the Indians missed opportunities have been quite costly (more on that below). The Indians are right around league average in terms of identifying and signing future major leaguers out of the draft's first 10 rounds.

Where the Indians have really failed is in extracting value from the players they have drafted. The 28.2 WAR accumulated by Cleveland's drafted players is, again, right around league average, and also puts them in the middle of the AL Central pack (KC, 30.4 and Detroit, 35.4, have drafted more talent). But most of the Indians 28.2 WAR comes from two players the Indians did not end up signing. The most successful player the Indians drafted is Tim Lincecum (22.0 WAR), who represents nearly 80% of the total drafted value. Throw in Desmond Jennings (also drafted and unsigned in that 2005 class) and suddenly you have more than 95% of the total draft value for these seasons.

The Indians have only signed a total of 3.3 WAR out of these six drafts. Only the Cubs (1.8), Phillies (1.0) and Astros (-2.1) have been worse. Some of the major leaguers drafted and signed by Cleveland have gone on to produce negative value elsewhere, so the realized product in Cleveland is marginally better (4.7 WAR), though still 26th in the league and last in the AL Central.

This is not a final result. All of these drafts are still producing new talent and will be for some time. It is probably fair to say you cannot make a really good quantitative evaluation of a draft until 15 or 20 years after it has taken place, so all of these drafts are still in flux. As Al points out in his piece, the Indians have been doing what seems like a better job lately in the draft, and indeed, the early returns on the admittedly limited samples of major leaguers from 2008-2010 would actually put Cleveland in the top 10 of the league.

Cleveland has drafted poorly, however, and their biggest failing is that they have not developed stars. Going through each teams' drafts over these seasons, what is obvious is that quality trumps quantity. The number of major leaguers a team has drafted and signed has almost no relationship with the value those players have produced at the big league level:

The Washington Nationals have drafted, signed and accumulated more out of their drafts during this period than any other team in baseball. And it is not because they have drafted the most future major leaguers. It is because they have drafted the best ones--Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmerman, John Lannan, Stephen Strasbourg and Bryce Harper--aided by 11 top 50 selections, including two #1 picks and four other top-10 selections. As another data point to consider, 17 of the league's 30 teams have gotten more than 50% of their total value from these drafts from just one player.

When Keith Law commented on the Indians tendency towards safe draft picks, this is what he was talking about. The Indians have produced major leaguers, but not high-ceiling ones. I belive the Indians strategy the past few seasons has certainly shifted in the direction of younger, higher risk, higher ceiling players. As I pointed out in July, 25 of Cleveland's 40 selections in this year's draft were of high-schoolers or JuCo athletes. Al did a good job of running through some of the significant international free agent signings the Indians have made in the recent past. Most of these guys will be busts and likely never see a major league pitch or face a major league batter. Amateur talent acquisition in baseball is not predicated on getting a good rate of return, it is predicated on hitting the lottery with enough frequency to put together a team with several stars.

For more, here is a look year by year at what the Indians have done:

2005 (26.8 WAR drafted, 2.2 WAR realized)

This was the year of the big misses. In round 42 the Indians took Tim Lincecum as a high-school flyer but were unable to sign him. Of course, back then he was not "Freak" Tim Lincecum. In the 18th round, the Indians drafted, but did not sign, Desmond Jennings out of Pinson Valley high school in Alabama. How different would the last five years look, or the present, with these two guys in the organization? What the Indians did get out of this draft a decent season or two from Jensen Lewis, and cups of coffee for Trevor Crowe and Jordan Brown. Nick Weglarz is the only product of this draft that remains with the organization, though his likely future contribution is nothing. Absent those two signings, this draft is terrible. With them, it would be fantastic.

2006 (1.2 WAR drafted, 1.4 WAR realized)

This is a case where my numbers are actually a little bit off, because the best product of this draft (so far) is Vinnie Pestano (20th round), who has obviously had a wonderful season in Cleveland this year. Josh Tomlin (19th round) has also produced some value, though that value has taken a hit this year and might be about to go on hold. Chris Archer (5th round) still might have a major league future ahead of him, though not with Cleveland. Our #1 pick, David Huff, has obviously been a big failure (-1.9 WAR). Steven Wright (2nd round) is a long-shot candidate to produce some value at the major league level as a knuckleballer...for the Red Sox. Jared Goedert (9th round) is still owed his cup of coffee, though with the acquisition of Russ Canzler it looks more like that opportunity will have to come elsewhere. Outside of that, Paolo Espino (10th round) looks like the only guy with potential future major league opportunity.

2007 (-0.5 WAR drafted, -0.2 WAR realized)

The only major leaguers Cleveland has, as of yet, drafted from this class are Matt Hague (who Cleveland did not sign) and Josh Judy, currently in the Reds organization. In retrospect, this might be the worst draft group of the bunch, as the only players with even an outside shot of seeing Cleveland are TJ McFarland (4th round), Bo Greenwell (6th round) and Kyle Landis (18th round).

2008 (-0.1 WAR drafted, 0.2 WAR realized)

2008 marks the rise of Brad Grant to the head of the draft machine, and I think we will in retrospect see it as the turning point in amateur talent acquisition. The realized value at this point comes from the as of yet minor contributions from Lonnie Chisenhall, Cord Phelps and the now-departed Zach Putnam. The other players who still might be of some interest from this draft include; Trey Haley, TJ House, Tim Fedroff, Eric Berger, Clayton Cook, Matt Langwell, Bryce Stowell, Carlos Moncrief and Roberto Perez. In the end, particularly if Chisenhall is able to put it together in the next few years, I think this draft will look pretty good.

2009 (3.1 WAR drafted, 3.8 WAR realized)

Alex White was the Tribe's #1 pick, but Jason Kipnis is obviously the big piece right now. Cory Burns (8th round), who debuted recently for San Diego is the only other guy to see the majors yet, but more are on their way. Austin Adams (5th round) was looking very good coming into this season and if can come back healthy, might still be in the future, particularly if he can bring his high-90s fastball to the rotation. Preston Guilmet (9th round) and Tyler Sturdevant (27th round) look like future bullpen members. Matt Packer, Joseph Colon, Mike Rayl or Brett Brach might be future back of the rotation fodder.

2010 (1.5 WAR drafted, 0.5 WAR realized)

Drew Pomeranz is likely to make this draft a success, even if most of its value ends up elsewhere. Cody Allen is the other member of this class to see the majors, and has looked good in his debut. There might be bigger pieces left, though. It remains to be seen how much of a setback LeVon Washington's hip injury becomes, but he was off to a great start prior to the injury. Tony Wolters is having a solid year. Alex Lavisky, Robbie Aviles, Tyler Holt, Jordan Cooper and Aaron Siliga are other names to look out for in the future.

Game 122: Mariners 5, Indians 3

Ryan — Tue, 21 Aug 2012 06:03:19 -0000

Boxscore

Brooks Baseball PitchFX - Ubaldo Jimenez

Baseball's a great game to follow in that there's a game every day, and always some new to pick up on, even if you've watched thousands of games over your lifetime. It's a sport that is fun to follow for the casual follower, but also rewards the die hard fan that has watches every single game that their favorite team plays.

The downside to that everyday play is when your favorite team is playing like the Indians. Cleveland has gone 10-26 since the second half began, and is now 4-15 in the month of August despite playing a relatively easy schedule; only one team that they've played this month (Oakland) would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. And in most of those losses, the outcome was known fairly early on, as the Tribe starter has rarely pitched well, or even pitched adequately for that matter. It's like watching a car go over a cliff, then having to watch it tumble down the side of the mountain for six weeks.

We already know that there's going to be major changes to this club, and know exactly what needs to be addressed, but there's still over a month to play and not many high-level prospects to bring up. As Adam has mentioned, there's a gap between the Kipnis-Chisenhall prospect class of 2011-2012 and the Lindor-Rodriguez class that's due in 2014-2015. Yeah, there's some somewhat interesting guys like Cord Phelps and Tim Fedroff that should get a look in September, but for the most part, what you're seeing right now is what you're going to see the rest of the way.

So the main storyline the rest of the way is to see if the current players on the roster can turn things around. Starting with Ubaldo Jimenez, who took the mound tonight. Pitching in Safeco against one of the weakest lineups in the majors was a great opportunity to start a turnaround, and although his approach was a lot better than you usually see, the results were just ok. He allowed three runs, only walked one and struck out eight, but allowed two home runs, and was pulled before finishing the sixth inning. By the post-ASB standards of the rotation, the outing was a good one, but by just any other standard it isn't. I've been holding out hope that at some point a switch is flipped and Jimenez becomes that dominant pitcher again, but I don't see that happening this year. The Indians are going to pick up his 2013 option, but they're going to have to make a difficult decisions: do you think that you fix what is wrong with Jimenez over the winter, or do you deal him for $.25-.30 on the dollar?

Jason Kipnis had a good game, which has been a rarity since the All-Star Break. He led off the contest with a home run off LGFT Kevin Millwood, and also drove in a run with a single in the fifth. Asdrubal Cabrera, who in the midst of this terrible season is having another excellent year at the plate, had two hits as well, and drove in the go-ahead run in the fifth after Kipnis' game-tying RBI hit. But Jimenez allowed an Eric Thames game-tying home run with two outs in the sixth, and Tony Sipp, who was great against left-handed hitters a year ago, allowed Saunders' second homer in the following inning. The Indians had a good opportunity to tie the game in the ninth off of Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen in the ninth, but Jason Kipnis grounded into a game-ending double play with the bases loaded.

Source: FanGraphs

Weekend minor league update: August 18 & 19, 2012

APV — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 20:00:11 -0000

Columbus 8, Louisville 9

Columbus 2, Louisville 3

Columbus' offense was held largely in check on Saturday, preventing Eric Berger (7IP, 2R, 0BB, 2K) from picking up a win in his longest outing of the season. On Sunday, Jeanmar Gomez's string of good outings came to a dramatic end, as he allowed 8 runs in less than five innings of work. Three guys I would like to see in Cleveland before the season is at produced on offense. Tim Fedroff had his 8th HR since joining Columbus (#11 overall), Russ Canzler hit his 20th HR and 31st double on Sunday, and Cord Phelps went 2-4 with 3 runs yesterday.

Akron 10, Reading 4

Akron 0, Reading 1

Akron scored 6 runs in the final two frames on Sunday to salvage a weekend split. Matt Lawson was 3-8 on the weekend with a double, raising his overall line to .353/.433/.490. He has had a hard time staying healthy, but has been swinging a good bat for a utility infielder. In Saturday's game, Brett Brach had his longest and best outing of the year (7IP, 6H, 1R, 1BB, 4K). Paolo Espino record 7Ks on Sunday (6IP, 3R) before giving way to two innings of relief from Trey Haley, who blew the save opportunity by allowing a run but held on for the victory, recording three Ks in two innings of work.

Carolina 2, Myrtle Beach 5

Carolina 2, Myrtle Beach 7

Will Roberts had his best start of the season Sunday (6IP, 4H, 1R, 0BB, 6K), but "bad" Fabio Martinez made his first appearance since joining the organization. Martinez managed to get one out, but three in three walks, three wild pitches, a hit batter and two runs in the process. Considering how fast Fabio throws, I would be terrified to be a Carolina League hitter these days. In Saturday's game, Ronny Rodriguez had two hits with a double, while Delvi Cid hit his 4th HR of the season.

Lake County 9, Lansing 2

Lake County 3, Lansing 2

Lake County managed to pull off the exact opposite results of Carolina over the weekend. Elvis Araujo had one of his best outings of the year on Saturday (5.1IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 8K) while Nicholas Pasquale (4IP, 2H, 1R, 0BB, 4K) and Francisco Valera (4IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 4K) piggy-backed a start to lead the Captains to victory. Jose Ramirez (4-8, 2B), Francisco Lindor (3-7, 2B, BB) and Luigi Martinez (2-7, HR#10) all hit the ball well.

Mahoning Valley 2, Batavia 1 (14 innings)

Mahoning Valley 3, Batavia 4

Mahoning Valley pulled off a 14-inning walk off victory on Sunday. The heroes of the game were the pitching staff, who provided 11 innings of shutout work following a piggyback start from Jacob Lee. The quartet of Geoffrey Davenport (3.1IP, 4H, 4BB, 1K), Scott Peoples (1.2IP, 0H, 1BB, 1K), Jack Wagoner (3IP, 2H, 0BB, 3K) and Rafael Homblert (3IP, 1H, 0BB, 2K) carried the Scrappers to the win.

AZL Indians 2, AZL Athletics 12

AZL Indians 5, AZL Royals 1

Jorge Martinez launched his 7th HR of the Complex League season on Saturday, while Dillon Howard and Felix Sterling combined to shutdown the Royals. Howard went 5 innings, allowing eight hits but holding the Royals to one run (1BB, 3K). Sterling kept the Royals hitless for four innings, walking three and striking out six. The Tribe managed just four hits on Sunday, but all four of those hits came from Martinez (2-3, 2B, BB) and Dorssys Paulino (2-3, HR#6). Meanwhile, 2012 high school pick, Caleb Hamrick, pitched two perfect innings with three Ks in his second pro appearance.

Indians Minor League Recap: August 12, 2012

APV — Mon, 13 Aug 2012 20:00:27 -0000

Columbus 4, Indianapolis 5

The Clippers mounted a rally, initiated by a Tim Fedroff triple and led by a 2-4 (2B, 3B) outing from Russ Canzler, but ultimately fell short. Matt Packer was hit around pretty well (6.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R) in his second start with Columbus. Langwell, Barnes, Sturdevant and Wheeler provided 2.2 innings of shaky, but effective relief. Wheeler's scoreless appearance streak has now moved past 10.

Akron 0, New Hampshire 3

Akron failed to get any runs on the board in six innings against former Indians farmhand, Yohan Pino. Brett Brach matched up well against Pino for five innings, but allowed a second run in the 6th before being relieved by Shawn Armstrong. Matt Lawson was back in the lineup for Akron, getting two singles in four plate appearances.

Carolina 5, Lynchburg 0

The Mudcats were on the better end of a shutout, Mike Rayl, Rob Nixon and Grant Sides combined to keep Lynchburg off the scoreboard. The offense was once again led by Giovanny Urshela, who went 3-5 with his 10th HR of the season. Urshela is OPSing over 1.100 through 11 games in August.

Lake County 10, South Bend 6

Leo Castillo, Alex Lavinsky and Jordan Smith all had three hits for the Captains. Jake Lowery added his 6th HR since joining Lake County (8th overall). Elvis Araujo went five innings for the victory, but failed to impress with three runs allowed and just one strikeout.

Mahoning Valley 4, Auburn 8

Jake Sisco was roughed up for six runs in three innings of work, the fifth outing in a row he has given up at least three runs. Mahoning Valley had five doubles in the game, including knocks from Joseph Wendle, Charlie Valerio, Evan Frazer, Richard Stock and Mitch Nilsson.

Windows and Winning

APV — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 15:00:21 -0000

via www.weblogcartoons.com

Over the past 18 months "window of contention" has become the Cleveland front office's business-speak equivalent of, "really, all you fans should pay attention, we are a contending team." For the remainder of this season, I would highly recommend the Indians seek an alternative narrative.

Paul Cousineau has been dancing around this issue the last few weeks, and covers the topic again today, but the whole notion of the Indians "window" is overplayed. The Indians do not have a tidal year of loss of club control anytime in the next several years:

2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Shin-Soo Choo	Asdrubal Cabrera	Lou Marson	Carlos Santana	Jason Kipnis	Cody Allen
Ubaldo Jimenez	Justin Masterson	Tony Sipp	Michael Brantley	Lonnie Chisenhall*	Scott Barnes
Joe Smith	Chris Perez		Josh Tomlin	Jeanmar Gomez	Corey Kluber
			Vinnie Pestano	Zach McAllister*
			Carlos Carrasco	Nick Hagadone*

* - could be pushed back depending on time spent in minors

The notion of the "window" is intimately attached to the Ubaldo trade, but does that make sense given the failure of the trade at this point? Does Ubaldo and his 5.29 ERA this season (5.22 with Cleveland, total) define the Indians window? Given that we were in contention this year for four months, is he really the key? A successful Jimenez would certainly make a big difference, but his failures should end his association with the window. More broadly, the "window" seems constructed around an anxiety about our starting pitching. In this view then the window is not solely about Ubaldo but also his "big two" tag team partner Justin Masterson (currently sporting a 4.78 ERA). The same argument applies. The reality is the Indians, like every team, need quality starting pitching wherever it comes from. Jimenez and Masterson have certainly shown the ability at times to reach a very high level, but their inability to maintain those performances is a big part of the Indians current troubles and should dispel any notion that they are essential to the Indians future.

Offensively, the big imminent loss is Shin-Soo Choo, who will leave Cleveland in free agency after next season if he is not dealt before then. Choo has turned his current season around dramatically and, based on B-Ref's numbers, shares the title of Cleveland's most valuable positional player with Jason Kipnis (3.1 WAR apiece). The Indians will miss Choo's production considerably, but again, I would hesitate to place the entirety of the club's chances on Choo's 4-win contribution. If there is a big wave of losses coming in the near future, though, it is in the the slightly less near future of 2017 and 2018.

The other side of the equation is the introduction fo new talent to Cleveland. Consider the following table. This is a list of notable Indians draftees still within the organization, but not currently in Cleveland, five years after their draft season. So the players listed in 2013 are 2008 draftees, the players in 2014 are 2009 draftees, and so on (* - I've also tried to include major international signees based on their current level, AAA>2013, AA>2012...).

2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Cord Phelps	Austin Adams	LeVon Washington	Francisco Lindor	Tyler Naquin
Trey Haley	Preston Guilmet	Tony Wolters	Dillon Howard	Dorssys Paulino*
Tim Fedroff	Joseph Colon	Robbie Aviles	Jake Sisco	Jorge Martinez*
Eric Berger	Tyler Sturdevant	Tyler Holt	Eric Haase	Dylan Baker
Clayton Cook	Matt Packer	Jordan Cooper	Luis DeJesus	D'vone McClure
Matt Langwell	Chun-Hsiu Chen*	Jesus Aguilar*	Bryson Myles	Mitch Brown
Carlos Moncrief	Giovanni Soto*	Ronny Rodriguez*	Luigi Rodriguez*	Kieran Lovegrove
T.J. House	Juan Diaz*	Kyle Petter	Jose Ramirez*	Cole Hambrick
Bryce Stowell	Danny Salazar*	Giovanny Urshela*	Elvis Araujo*	Robel Garcia*
Roberto Perez	Loek Van Mil*	Alex Monsalve*	Grant Sides	Leo Castillo*
C.C. Lee*		Alex Lavisky	Shawn Armstrong	Josh Schubert
Hector Rondon*			Felix Sterling*

The Indians farm system is far from tops in the majors, but it does have a lot of young talent scattered between Columbus and Goodyear. The list of players above, together with a bunch of people I have left out, is going to produce quite a few major leaguers, some of whom will be impact players. It is impossible to expect any one of these players to come in and be the next Choo or the next Kipnis, but I would argue it is not unreasonable to expect such a player to emerge. The real crux of the Indians positional talent is at high-A and below, meaning they are a few years off, but might start arriving into Cleveland as early as the latter part of 2014, conveniently coincidental with the real need in Cleveland. On the pitching side of the ledger, the Indians actually have a fair number of interesting arms (if they can stay healthy) in the upper part of the system, meaning the loss of "aces" like Jimenez and Masterson may not be as dire as predicted.

An additional reality is that even if it did not happen this year, some of Cleveland's major league talent is going to be traded before they reach free agency, with the goal, in part, being to acquire high-end prospect talent in return. So significant additions will likely be added in the next year or two to the upper part of the list above. And, of course, the Indians could sign free agents. Hopefully they will. Hopefully they will do a better job than they have in the past at not missing out on great deals (i.e. Carlos Beltran) and not missing on the deals they do sign. While I am optimistic about the changes that have occurred in the Indians acquisition of amateur talent, their targeting and acquisition of free agents and near major league talent still leave something to be desired.

My larger point is simple. Do not worry about the window. Open the window. Break the window. Take your non-sanctioned "official Albert" bell and throw it through your window. The Indians need to continue to add talent at all levels of the organization, they need to do a better job of this than their competitors, and in the absence of a significant budgetary infusion, they need to get lucky with health. And they need to avoid what I have called the stable equilibrium of mediocrity.

As for the remainder of this season, I return to my already stated position that the Indians should cut ties with the spare parts acquired for 2012--a process that has already started with the release of Lowe, Damon and Accardo--and focus on giving major league experience to some of the spare parts in Columbus. I would like to see Fedroff playing LF three or four times a week, I would like to see what Langwell or Berger look like in the pen, I would like to see Donald and/or Phelps getting some reps on the left side of the infield and I would like to see some combination of Canzler/Goedert/LaPorta getting time at 1B and DH. Before we enter this off-season, an off-season that the Indians will have to creatively seek to fill a few holes, it would be nice to see what parts we might already have in house. This is not a matter of the Indians waving a white flag, it is simply a matter of pressing "refresh" with the Indians talent.