SB Nation - Barry Bonds

Best All-Time Interpolated Seasons for Hitters

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:57:45 -0000

Joe Mauer had a great season, even though he missing a few games. He got me thinking of which players had great seasons going, but were cut short by injury or a shorter season. I decided to ignore regression (I wanted to name the article "F___ Regression," but I don't think it would have flown too far) and project all players with greater than 100 PA as if they had 700 PA. Using Rally's WAR database, here are the top 21 seasons of all time if all the hitters had 700 PA.

Rank	Name	WAR700	Year	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	15.3	1872	5.2	238
2	Ross Barnes	15.1	1876	7.4	342
3	Babe Ruth	14.8	1920	12.9	610
4	Babe Ruth	14.8	1923	14.7	696
5	Rogers Hornsby	14.5	1924	13	627
6	Babe Ruth	14.2	1921	14	689
7	Barry Bonds	14.1	2004	12.4	614
8	Mickey Mantle	14.1	1957	12.5	620
9	Ted Williams	14.0	1953	2.2	110
10	Barry Bonds	14.0	2002	12.2	610
11	Mickey Mantle	14.0	1956	12.9	647
12	Babe Ruth	13.8	1919	10.6	539
13	Fred Dunlap	13.5	1884	9.2	478
14	Gates Brown	13.5	1968	2	104
15	Ty Cobb	13.4	1910	11	574
16	Jeff Bagwell	13.3	1994	8.9	469
17	Joe Morgan	13.3	1975	12	633
18	Babe Ruth	13.2	1927	12.8	677
19	George Brett	13.2	1980	9.6	508
20	Barry Bonds	13.2	2001	12.5	662
21	Walter Johnson	13.2	1925	1.9	101

Notes from the data:

I went with 21 because I was amazed that Walter Johnson's name showed up. Here is his line from that 1925 season

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
1925	37	WSH	36	107	97	12	42	6	1	2	20	3	6	.433	.455	.577	1.033	163

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Ross Barnes was a member of the "All Roscoe Team."
I expected more players with fewer than 300 PA to make list. Instead, only four did.
Babe Ruth's 1923 season is pretty amazing, in that he accumulated almost all the WAR himself and his value is barely projected.

Besides an over all list here are the top 5 players in each of the 50 PA intervals above 100:

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Cal Ripken	1991	10.9	11.0	708
2	Jimmie Foxx	1932	10.7	10.7	701
3	Willie Mays	1962	10.6	10.6	703
4	Hank Aaron	1963	9.9	10.0	709
5	Stan Musial	1946	9.8	9.8	700

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1923	14.8	14.7	696
2	Babe Ruth	1921	14.2	14.0	689
3	Babe Ruth	1927	13.2	12.8	677
4	Barry Bonds	2001	13.2	12.5	662
5	Ty Cobb	1917	12.8	11.9	653

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1920	14.8	12.9	610
2	Rogers Hornsby	1924	14.5	13.0	627
3	Barry Bonds	2004	14.1	12.4	614
4	Mickey Mantle	1957	14.1	12.5	620
5	Barry Bonds	2002	14.0	12.2	610

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ty Cobb	1910	13.4	11.0	574
2	Honus Wagner	1907	12.4	10.0	566
3	Honus Wagner	1906	12.0	10.0	584
4	Joe Morgan	1976	11.9	10.0	587
5	Rogers Hornsby	1925	11.9	10.0	589

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1919	13.8	10.6	539
2	George Brett	1980	13.2	9.6	508
3	Barry Bonds	2003	13.2	10.3	548
4	Roger Connor	1885	13.1	9.5	506
5	Ted Williams	1957	12.7	9.9	544

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Fred Dunlap	1884	13.5	9.2	478
2	Jeff Bagwell	1994	13.3	8.9	469
3	Ty Cobb	1918	10.9	7.2	464
4	Dave Orr	1884	10.7	7.1	464
5	Ezra Sutton	1884	10.7	7.6	497

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Mike Schmidt	1981	12.3	7.6	431
2	Ross Barnes	1875	11.7	6.7	400
3	Andre Dawson	1981	11.7	7.3	436
4	Ted Williams	1955	11.4	6.7	413
5	Buddy Bell	1981	10.7	6.2	405


Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Cap Anson	1881	12.1	6.4	369
2	Babe Ruth	1918	11.5	6.2	377
3	Dan Brouthers	1882	11.1	5.9	372
4	Bobby Grich	1981	10.4	5.9	396
5	Cal McVey	1875	10.2	5.7	390


Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1876	15.1	7.4	342
2	Ross Barnes	1873	10.7	5.2	340
3	Joe DiMaggio	1949	10.6	5.0	329
4	George Gore	1880	10.6	5.2	343
5	Pete Browning	1882	10.3	4.6	314

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	George Wright	1872	10.6	3.9	258
2	Solly Hemus	1954	10.2	4.0	274
3	Charlie Bennett	1888	9.6	4.0	291
4	Orator Shaffer	1878	9.5	3.8	279
5	Charlie Bennett	1886	9.4	3.8	283

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1872	15.3	5.2	238
2	Mickey Mantle	1963	10.9	3.3	212
3	Willie McCovey	1959	9.6	3.0	218
4	Carlton Fisk	1974	9.5	2.9	213
5	Buck Herzog	1908	9.3	2.7	203

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1871	11.9	2.9	170
2	Nig Clarke	1906	11.6	3.2	193
3	Jack Lapp	1911	10.6	2.9	191
4	George Uhle	1923	10.2	2.2	151
5	Greg Goossen	1969	9.9	2.2	156

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ted Williams	1953	14.0	2.2	110
2	Gates Brown	1968	13.5	2.0	104
3	Walter Johnson	1925	13.2	1.9	101
4	Don Newcombe	1955	13.0	2.3	124
5	Babe Ruth	1915	12.5	1.8	101

Black Friday Random Astros Discussion Question

davoag — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:00:21 -0000

by Ben Margot - AP

Albert Pujols wins another MVP, crushes non-Cardinal fans souls...

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We haven't really discussed it here, but you may have seen a certain slugger from up north won another MVP award. No, not Joe Mauer, it's Albert "Killer of Dreams" Pujols. If you're counting, that's his third MVP trophy and eighth finish in the top five. In fact, the only season Pujols hasn't finished in the top five in his career was a ninth-place finish in 2007. That would be when the Dominican native hit .327/.429/.568 with 103 RBIs and 99 runs scored.

Did you realize that there have only been five MVP winners this decade in the National League? Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Pujols, Ryan Howard and JImmy Rollins are the only players to win the award in the 2000s. Obviously, Pujols is the only player from the NL Central to make the list, but what's remarkable is how often other teams in the Central have won the award compared to the Astros.

Take the Cardinals. In the 98 years the MVP award has been given out, 20 Cardinals have won. Cincinnati is next with 11 total MVP while the Cubs have 10. Pittsburgh has seven MVPs while Milwaukee has three MVP wins from its time in the American League. So, the Astros are last in the NL Central with only one MVP win in the franchise's 48 years of existence.

Obviously, if Pujols retired after next season, he'd be a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Since he's going into his Age 30 season, that seems unlikely. If it's not bad enough that The Soulcrusher is staying around for a while, there were nine other NL Central players that got MVP votes this season. Miguel Tejada was the only Astro to get a vote, and he was the lowest finisher of all 10 NL Central vote-getters.

So, the question of the day is this: why don't Houston players fare better in MVP voting and are there any players on the current 40-man roster with a decent chance at winning the award?

Albert Pujols wins NL MVP award

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:34:53 -0000

Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols won his third MVP award today, winning it in an unanimous vote. No player has won unanimously since Barry Bonds did in 2002, but it should come as no surprise to anyone after he led the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Albert Pujols	160	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	115	64	16	4	.327	.443	.658

This was the ninth consecutive top-10 finish in MVP voting for Pujols, who in addition to winning in 2005 and 2008 also finished second in 2002, 2003 and 2006, third in 2004, fourth in 2001 (his rookie year) and ninth in 2007.

Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who won the batting title, finished second in the voting with 233 points.

Evan Longoria and The 500 Home Run Club

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:45:16 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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As 2010 projections start to be released, we will take a look at some of the more important ones from time to time. Projections are what they are, but they are still fun to look at. All in all, I would say the ZiPs projections are a bit more realistic than the Bill James projections because ZiPs tends to be a bit conservative. Aside from the single season projections, you may have noticed that the ZiPs projections include an extrapolated career projection; most namely the projection of Evan Longoria.

In case you missed it, according to ZiPs, Longoria will finish his career with a line of .263/.349/.501 and 526 home runs in 2535 career games. Remember that we take the yearly projections with a grain of salt, so this roughly ~16 year projection should be taken even more lightly. Nonetheless, there isn't much going and it's nice to dream of Longoria hitting that 526^th home run as a member of the Rays.

Currently, there are 25 members of the 500 home run club with more to be added over the next decade. By the time Longoria is projected to be approaching such a milestone the membership could be close to double.

Here is the list as it stands today...

	HR	AB
Barry Bonds	762	9847
Hank Aaron	755	12364
Babe Ruth	714	8398
Willie Mays	660	10881
Ken Griffey Jr.	630	9703
Sammy Sosa	609	8813
Frank Robinson	586	10006
Mark McGwire	583	6187
Alex Rodriguez	583	8304
Harmon Killebrew	573	8147
Rafael Palmeiro	569	10472
Jim Thome	564	7706
Reggie Jackson	563	9864
Mike Schmidt	548	8352
Manny Ramirez	546	7962
Mickey Mantle	536	8102
Jimmie Foxx	534	8134
Ted Williams	521	7706
Willie McCovey	521	8197
Frank Thomas	521	8199
Eddie Matthews	512	8537
Ernie Banks	512	9421
Mel Ott	511	9456
Gary Sheffield	509	9217
Eddie Murray	504	11336

Obviously, longevity is a must. Even Mark McGwire, who has the least about of at-bats of any member, needed over 6,100 at-bats. McGwire by far has the best HR/AB ratio hitting a "dinger' nearly every 10.6 at-bats or a full AB better than second place Babe Ruth, who averaged a home run every 11.7 at-bats. Longoria is no where near that kind of pace, but he is still ahead of six players in the club

	HR Per AB
Mark McGwire	10.61235
Babe Ruth	11.7619
Barry Bonds	12.92257
Jim Thome	13.66312
Harmon Killebrew	14.21815
Alex Rodriguez	14.24357
Sammy Sosa	14.47126
Manny Ramirez	14.58242
Ted Williams	14.79079
Mickey Mantle	15.11567
Jimmie Foxx	15.23221
Mike Schmidt	15.24088
Ken Griffey Jr	15.40159
Willie McCovey	15.73321
Frank Thomas	15.73704
Hank Aaron	16.37616
Willie Mays	16.48636
Eddie Matthews	16.67383
Frank Robinson	17.07509
Evan Longoria	17.2
Reggie Jackson	17.52043
Gary Sheffield	18.10806
Ernie Banks	18.40039
Rafael Palmeiro	18.40422
Mel Ott	18.50489
Eddie Murray	22.49206

A few other things to note...

In 2008, Longo's HR/AB was 16.59, but dropped to 17.6 in 2009. Injuries seem to have slowed him down at bit last year, but a 17.2 average is pretty good in its own right.
Right now Longoria's rate is closest to Frank Robinson. It took Robinson nearly 8,500 at-bats to get to 500. If Longoria stays on his current pace of 17.2, it would take 8,600 to get to 500. That means Longo would need to keep his same HR rate and amass 600 at-bats each year for the next 14+ seasons.
Aside from the 526 homers, the projection has Longoria hitting 628 doubles. Only Hank Aaron (624) and Barry Bonds (601) have hit 500+ home runs and 600+ doubles.
Longoria currently hits a double every 13.76 ABs. That pace is better than any member of the 500 home run club with Ted Williams' 14.76 coming as second best.
The last statistic I looked at was walks. Longoria ranks in the bottom third in terms of walk rates amongst the list, but at age 24 he has plenty of time to practice his patience at the plate.

Odds are Longoria won't play long enough to actually hit 500 home runs, and the odds are even longer that if he does it will be as a member of the Rays. He would need to play for another 14 or 15 years at a high level and avoid a major injury. While the quest for 500 may fall short, the fact that we have a player so talented that 500 home runs doesn't seem that crazy is pretty good.

Quick notes on the Bochy/Sabean extension

Grant — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 21:37:50 -0000

For the non-regular ghouls who are stopping by to see how Giants fans are reacting to the news that Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean have new contracts, here’s a quick primer:

Here’s where the Giants have ranked for the past five years in runs scored compared to the rest of Major League Baseball:

2005 – 29th out of 30 teams

2006 – 24th out of 30

2007 – 29th out of 30

2008 – 29th out of 30

2009 – 26th out of 30

Note that the first three seasons listed were with Barry Bonds. So the Giants' only hope is that Sabean realizes that he needs to change how he evaluates hitters. He failed at his offseason quest to build a better offense, and he failed because his long-held opinions on what makes a good offense were wrong. They’ve been wrong for a while. He needs to completely reevaluate his core beliefs, and he needs to try something different.

Sabean needs to have an epiphany and realize that his attempts to build an offense have failed. He can’t be stubborn. He can’t be arrogant.

Oh, and he needs to come to this realization on his own because his vision was just validated and reinforced with a contract extension.

So, yeah. We’re in for a fantastic couple of seasons.

As for Bochy, the thing to remember is that he has no idea how to evaluate hitters. Young players have about 100 at-bats to win him over, and old players get about 2,000 at-bats to lose his trust. Not only did Randy Winn hold on to a starting job throughout the season – if you’ll recall, Winn was the right fielder with two home runs in over 600 plate appearances, poor contact skills, and a subpar walk rate – but Bochy decided that Winn was good enough to take the #3 spot in the lineup. The best way to make Bochy an effective manager is to eliminate any lineup questions. He needs to be given a team with unquestionably good hitters.

So, yeah. We’re in for a fantastic couple of seasons.

Maybe Bill Neukom went to Sabean and said, "Look, your teams haven’t scored runs in five years. Why?" And maybe Sabean gave him an honest, soul-searching answer without using situational hitting as an excuse. And maybe Neukom was satisfied enough with the direction of the farm system and the pitching staff that he accepted the honest answer. Maybe. I don’t know, I wasn’t there.

It’s illogical to assume that, though. It only works as an unlikely hope. The logical assumption, then, is that this is a crazy move made by people who don’t know what they’re doing, and the result is that other people who don’t know what they’re doing get to keep doing a poor job.

So, yeah. We’re in for a fantastic couple of seasons.

Poll

Are you in favor of the Bochy and Sabean extensions?

Yes on both. I'm glad they're back.

224 votes

I approve of Sabean's extension, but not Bochy's.

253 votes

I approve of Bochy's extension, but not Sabean's.

320 votes

Awful news on both counts. I disapprove.

937 votes

1734 votes | Poll has closed

Surviving the Offseason

Grant — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:44:19 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Gee, I don't know why I should hate the offseason. I'm trying to think of a reason, but I'm drawing a blank.

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It begins.

This...

Jason Bay, LF, Red Sox - Could he wind up in the City by the Bay? Giants GM Brian Sabean is looking for a big bat and will spend for someone like Bay or Holliday.

...is a standard player-meets-team-with-need-and-money kind of speculation. Even Peter King is about to write an article about the Giants' need for Bay or Holliday. But then that turns into this:

...and the accompanying story reads:

The San Francisco Giants want to add a player with a big bat this off-season and the word is that the Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay will be the prime target, according to the Boston Globe.
The Giants, who've needed a big offensive threat ever since Barry Bonds receded into the fog, are apparently ready to open their wallet for a fella like Bay or Matt Holliday, both of whom will be free agents soon enough.

Naturally, that leads to this:

Jason Bay just called my friend, who works in real estate, and asked if there were any "bazillion-dollar homes for sale in the Bay Area." Bay then said, "Yeah, I'm specifically looking for a bazillion-dollar home because the Giants are going to offer me two bazillion dollars, and then I'll have a bazillion left over."

That last source was impeccable, so I'm spending my time thinking of witty headlines. "Jason comes to Fog City!" "City by the Jason!" Something like that.

I hate the offseason. I mean, I love it because I'm a chronic rosterbator. I love the Rule 5 draft. I love the Winter Meetings. But I hate the post-Zito offseason focus on the Giants and whoever is the top free agent.

C.C. Sabathia hometown discount could hometown discount his way to rotation of all-time with the Giants? Sabathia hometown Vallejo with power stuff and pitcher's ballpark hometown discount with Giants interested, even though the last time Barry Zito worst signing of all-time, Vallejo could hometown a discount into the picture. Don't count the Giants out.

Man, I'm not looking forward to that again. But it's already starting, and we aren't out of the first round of the playoffs yet.

Bay and Holliday.

Holliday and Bay.

Should the Giants? Could the Giants? Would the Giants? Opinion one way. Counterargument the other way. Graph with payroll figures. Comment from someone dry-humping UZR numbers. Rebuttal from someone still using RBI and batting average. Holliday! Bay! Should the Giants? Could the Giants? Would the Giants?

Comment starter: Offseason plans. Offseason hate. Are you planning on checking out for a while after the World Series? Have you already checked out? Do you like rosterbation? You're doing it right now, aren't you, you little scamp?

Sigh. I kind of want the Giants to play a game right now, just so I could yell at them.

Yankees take game one, 7-2

Travis G — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:38:55 -0000

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Funny how CC Sabathia can't 'get it done' in the playoffs... until he does. It reminds me of Barry Bonds in 2002. Before that postseason, he was a playoff choker who couldn't deliver when it really mattered. Then in the Giants run that year, he hit .356/.581/.978.

Sabathia gave up just one run in 6.2 innings tonight, striking out eight with no walks.

Though the Twins had more hits (10 to 9), they lacked the power of the Yankees, who had a double and two homers compared to just two doubles (and eight singles) for Minnesota.

Yankee Stadium got awfully quiet after Minnesota took a 2-0 lead. Then The Captain stepped to the plate and launched Brian Duensing's hanging slider for a two-run homer. Jeter had a perfect night: 2-2, 2 BB.

A-Rod looked lost through two AB, then decided to get aggressive and swung at the first pitch he saw in his next AB, knocking in the Yanks fourth run. It was his first hit in 29 postseason AB with runners on. Kate Hudson and Jay-Z were ecstatic. He then lined a long single to rightfield for the Yanks seventh run.

Hideki Matsui continues his domination of southpaws - he took Francisco Liriano deep for a two-run shot in the fifth.

Joe Girardi should get credit for twice starting the runner at first base, for the batters hit certain DPs each time, only for the runner to already be at second.

Jorge Posada certainly didn't help his effort to catch A.J. Burnett: he allowed two passed balls and a wild pitch.

Despite reading a lot of complaints about TBS' broadcasting tandem, I didn't think they were so bad. Ron Darling is downright listenable, while Chip Caray is merely vanilla: neither good nor bad. I also love the 'PitchTrax' graphic on the edge of the screen, telling us really whether a pitch is a strike or a ball.

What we haven't really mentioned yet is the playoff roster, which features two surprises: Frankie Cervelli and Chad Gaudin. A third catcher and a second long-reliever? I don't understand it, and am surprised Girardi didn't feel someone like Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena would be more helpful.

It's The 47th Anniversary Of... Cubs vs. Pirates Doubleheader Preview, Wednesday 9/30, 1:05 & 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A 47th anniversary? Of what? What's that all about?

This all started with an email exchange on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe. (Yes, I got permission from both men to post their email here.) Josh Heit asked the list over this past weekend:

On Monday, the Mets and Nationals begin a series and the teams will have at least a combined 191 losses (Mets 89 going into Sunday, Nationals 102). Is this is a record? I have checked some obvious choices such as the 2003 Tigers and did not find a series that beat 191, although I was not working off of a comprehensive list.

To which John Pastier wrote the following definitive reply:

As a 1962 Mets fan, I am deeply shocked that Josh does not consider The Amazin's to be an obvious choice to be checked for this honor. This club was to losing what Rickey Henderson was to stealing or walking, what Barry Bonds was to splash hits, what Ichiro is to singles, what the Rockies are to thin air, what Joe Morgan is to baseball analysis, and what Pete Rose was to making outs. They are the undisputed gold standard of losing, and holding up a puny 191 combined losses before this juggernaut of defeat is like asking whether Babe Ruth ever hit more than 40 home runs.

The Mets and the Cubs played each other on Sept. 30, 1962, and at the close of business, they had combined for 223 losses, 120 of them by the Metropolitans. And they did this even though they were not allowed to complete their full schedule, falling two decisions short of the requisite 162.

I hope Pastier was being facetious about Joe Morgan (either that, or in an oblique way calling him a "loser"). Anyway, yes, the Sept. 30, 1962 game (which the Cubs won 5-3), holds the record for the game in which the two clubs began the day with the most combined losses (222; the Mets began the game with 119 defeats and the Cubs 103, which is the franchise record, tied in 1966). Another interesting note about that season-ending series at Wrigley Field 47 years ago: the first game of that series, a Friday afternoon game on September 28 also won by the Cubs 3-2, drew a paid "crowd" of 595 people. That number of people could fit comfortably in a couple of bleacher sections. It was one of nine games between 1959 and 1966 that drew paid attendance of less than 1000. How times change.

There will be a few more people than that in the seats during today's first game, a makeup of the postponement from August 16, but likely fewer than the estimated 15,000 who showed up last night.

Starting rotation note: Lou announced during last night's postgame news conference that Jeff Samardzija will start tomorrow vs. the Pirates, and Tom Gorzelanny on Friday vs. the Diamondbacks. (It was originally the other way around.)

Game One Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

12-8	W-L	4-9
3.02	ERA	5.01
143	SO	54
34	BB	37
22	HR	7
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	12-8	26	26	0	0	0	0	170.0	146	62	57	22	34	143	3.02	1.06

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	4-9	17	17	0	0	0	0	88.0	98	49	49	7	37	54	5.01	1.53

Game Two Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Jeff Karstens Pirates

9-6	W-L	3-5
3.69	ERA	5.45
146	SO	49
74	BB	44
10	HR	12
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	9-6	34	27	1	1	0	0	163.1	149	74	67	10	74	146	3.69	1.37

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Karstens	3-5	36	11	0	0	0	0	100.2	106	62	61	12	44	49	5.45	1.49

I'm going to try to say nice things about the Pirates' starters today, Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens, but geez, those records are pretty bad. Neither one strikes out many hitters, and both ERA's are north of 5.00. The last time Charlie Morton faced the Cubs, they scored ten earned runs off him in one-plus innings on August 14 at Wrigley Field before John Russell took pity on him and got him out of the game. Jeff Karstens had one shining moment as a Pirate, in the first game he threw for them after being acquired from the Yankees. On August 1, 2008, he threw six shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. His next two outings against the Cubs, not so much -- five earned runs in three innings in a start on August 25, 2008 and two earned runs in two innings in relief on September 9 of this year.

Ted Lilly will be trying to lower his ERA below 3.00 and finish the year with a sub-three ERA for the first time in his major league career -- a worthy goal. A win today would also be his 45th as a Cub, giving him an average of 15 wins a year over the first three years of his four-year deal, one of Jim Hendry's best free-agent signings. Ted is 1-1 vs. the Pirates this year with a 2.77 ERA and he threw better in the June 30 loss, when the Cubs got shut out by Ross Ohlendorf (who the Cubs won't face in this series), than in the September 9 victory at PNC Park. Ted is also 8-1, 1.60 in 12 starts at Wrigley Field this year and 8-3, 2.55 in 14 starts in day games.

Carlos Zambrano is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts vs. the Pirates this year; he will be trying to follow up his shutout of the Giants with another strong performance to end the year on an up note, and also to get his 10th win. That would make seven straight years in double figures for Z and it would be his 106th career victory. Of the current Pirates, no one has more than 14 career AB against Z, and only Brandon Moss has homered off him.

Today's first game is on WGN and FSN Pittsburgh. Today's second game is on CSN Chicago Plus (CLTV in Chicago, "check local listings" elsewhere). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (game one)

MLB.com Gameday (game two)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game one)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game two)

SB Nation game preview (game one)

SB Nation game preview (game two)

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. They seem a little lonely over there.

There won't be a separate game preview thread for the second game; consider this a preview for both games (feel free to revisit this thread before the night game begins). Overflow comment threads will post today for game one at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT. The first pitch thread will post for game two at 7 pm CDT and overflows at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Total MLB Home Runs This Century - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:38:40 -0000

I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.

The second in this continuing series, This Century, we see another standard counting stat drop significantly over the past 10 years. This time, it's home runs dropping from the 2000-2004 average of 5400 drop to a 2005-2009 average of 5000. Shocking on its own, but 2009 looks to have a more-than-300 home run drop from that. That's flabbergasting.

What changed? (more after the jump)

I submit to you the following:

Blame San Francisco.

YEAR	TOTAL HR	RANK
2000	226	6th
2001	235	2nd
2002	198	6th
2003	180	12th
2004	183	17th
2005	128	28th
2006	163	22nd
2007	131	25th
2008	94	30th
2009*	109	29th

Obviously, they represent a fraction of the Major League's power recession, but that San-Fran chart above certainly eerily mirrors the MLB chart does it not? What gives? One could make an argument that the mirror is merely a reflection of the renewed focus on sabermetric principles from front offices on their pitching staff, but wouldn't they also use that to help their batters? I could dance around the topic all day, but the truth is that it's probably just regression to the mean. Right?

Yes, I'm pretty much sayin'. ;)

Giants/Phillies Series Preview

Grant — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:45:20 -0000

More photos » by Michael Perez - AP

Jamie Moyer throws a changeup on "Business Attire Night" at Citizen's Bank Park.

Browse more photos »

note: There's a thread for September callups just below this post. You can enter your guess into the "Whose Daughter Did Kevin Frandsen Diddle?" contest there.

Click this link. Do it. Mouse over, find out where the link sends you, and then go there with glee. Click the link, and let the joy wash over you. Tim Lincecum. Pablo Sandoval. Edgar M.F. Renteria. That was the last time a series was this important.

I guess they’re all important from now on. Every game in this newfangled "September" seems to mean something. My pappy used to tell me stories his grandpappy used to tell him, and there was once a time when the Giants used to play meaningful games in every September. He used to get some penny candy, ride the trolley to the games, pay his nickel, and watch players like "Barry Bonds" and "Jeff Kent" do something they used to call "hitting the freaking ball." It was probably pretty special. I’m looking forward to these "meaningful" "September" games.

The last Phillies/Giants series was a little bit of a test. Sure, the Giants could beat teams like the Padres and the Pirates – except when they can’t – but the Phillies? It was a bellwether series – a harbinger of doom to come if they couldn’t beat a good team at home. But the Giants did quite well, taking three of four from the Phillies. They might have even swept the series, too, if it weren’t for those meddling Indians giving Cliff Lee away.

This series is even more of a bellwethery harbingering, though. It’s a good team on the road. You might remember such fantastic road series like San Diego and Pittsburgh, where the Giants flopped against bad teams. That stunk. This could be even worse of a thumping….

…or the Giants can say "We are so totally in this thing for reals" by taking the series. As a devout member of the Church of Jeff Weaver, and one of the planners for the annual St. Podsednik parade for my church, I firmly believe that any team in the playoffs has a chance to win it all with a well-timed hot streak. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t feel better if the team at least pretended they could win on the road, though.

Pitcher to watch:

Brad Penny is a lump of unpleasantness, but he should be a good fit in San Francisco. In Philadelphia, though? Against Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and the rest of the NL All-Star team? Those 400-foot fly outs aren’t so cute in Philadelphia. And I’m a-feared of Penny’s debut.

On the Philly side, Pedro Martinez is going against Tim Lincecum. I can’t figure out what that means. The Giants usually shock us all by scratching out a couple of runs against the best pitchers in the world, but then they wither against the rehab projects, the low-K control specialists, and the gimps of the world. Martinez is an unholy combination of all of the above. He’s a fantastic pitcher when he’s right, which is good news for the Giants. But he could still be recovering from his layoff, hurting his velocity and command, which is bad news for the Giants. We’ll have to see how it plays out.

Hitter to watch:

Freddy Sanchez should have a whale of a series. I’m looking forward to it. (WalrusMan's Edit: :-( )

Also, Raul Ibanez is slumping hard. It was easy to defend against the Renteria "worst signing of the offseason" charges by pointing to Ibanez, but then Ibanez went nuts on the National League. Lately, he’s been more in line with preseason expectations, so hopefully he stays that way. Chances of that happening now that I’ve written that: 2%.

Prediction:

If the Giants lose this series, the season is over unless they find a way to win more games than the Rockies for the remainder of the season. Book it.