SB Nation - Jonathan Sanchez

Beyond the Game Score: Park-Adjusted Game WAR

SFiercex4 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:56:46 -0000

San Francisco Giants' Jonathan Sanchez, right, is embraced by catcher Eli Whiteside at the end of a baseball game after hearing that his no-hitter against the San Diego Padres Friday, July 10, 2009, in San Francisco, had the highest WAR total of the season among individual starts. Hug it out, gentlemen, what a great accomplishment! I'm getting a little teary-eyed just talking about it myself. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Recently, Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer did a piece on Game Score and consistency which found its way onto resident chief Tommy Bennett's No Pepper links. Apparently, Tommy's not a fan of Game Score, and neither am I.

I had been recently trying to come up with a way to adjust Game Score for defense and park, maybe attempt a shot at a new Game Score formula for batted balls. This seemed like an interesting side project to tackle until VEP posted this one-line gem:

I just use Game WAR.

I was floored. What an simple yet elegant concept. I decided to have some fun with the data and throw out some Game WAR numbers for the BtB readership. Here's what I did.

Methodology

I took all non-Interleague starts this season with a Game Score over 80. I decided to exclude Interleague games to eliminate the need to determine average run support in an Interleague game (in retrospect, I suppose I could have used NL/AL average runs/game in Interleague play, but I already did the work, so take that). For what it's worth, I had to remove seven games from the sample of total starts with a Game Score above 80. This left me with 121 starts, ranging from Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter (Game Score of 98) to Randy Johnson's April 19th start against the Arizona Diamondbacks (Game Score of 80). Of the 9276 starts made outside of Interleague play this season, this supposedly represents the best 1.3% of starts this season.

For my methodology for pitcher WAR, I used FIP as the run-determining metric to separate defense from pitching, mostly because of ease. I took all the relevant FIP statistcs (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, intentional walks, and home runs) and calculated FIP, using 3.19 as the scalar to ERA (the NL should have been 3.18 and the AL should have been 3.20, but these points shouldn't matter all that much). I park-adjusted the pitcher's FIP according to Patriot's five-year regressed park factors and stuck the inputs into Pythagenpat. Since all of Patriot's factors are already adjusted to account for players playing half their games at their home park, I reversed the adjustments for this exercise by doing the following:

PFGmWAR = [(PF-1)*2] + 1

This was done to get pure run inflation/deflation values for each park.

I used NL and AL non-Interleague average runs scored as the run support component. I used a .380 win% pitcher as replacement level.

Just for fun, I also decided to look at an old question brought up by Jeff of Lookout Landing, regarding A.J. Burnett and the myth of inconsistency. I grabbed game logs for three Yankees, Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and C.C. Sabathia, during the 2009 season and calculated Game WAR. I also took a look at [Game +1 WAR - Game WAR] (difference between consecutive starts).

The Numbers

I have all of the 121 starts listed in this Google spreadsheet for your perusal, but here I'll list the top 10 Game Scores of the season with relevant data and game WAR. I'll also then list the top 10 Game WAR games with data and Game Scores.

Ranked by Game Score

Gscr Rk	GmWAR Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-33	Chris Carpenter	9/7	MIL	9	10	2	1.78	0.44	93
T-2	T-28	Mark Buehrle	7/23	TBR	9	6	0	2.02	0.45	93
T-4	T-5	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-4	T-16	Justin Verlander	5/8	CLE	9	11	2	1.54	0.49	92
T-6	T-44	Roy Halladay	9/4	NYY	9	9	3	2.38	0.40	91
T-6	T-22	Cole Hamels	9/1	SFG	9	9	1	1.66	0.47	91
T-6	T-24	Tim Lincecum	6/29	STL	9	8	0	1.54	0.46	91
T-6	T-19	Jeff Niemann	6/3	KCR	9	9	1	1.66	0.48	91
T-10	T-37	Carlos Zambrano	9/25	SFG	9	8	1	1.90	0.43	90

Note: There were three other games listed at Game Score of 90, I just listed the first one on the list for convenience.

Ranked by Game WAR

GmWAR Rk	Gscr Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-36	Zack Greinke	5/4	CHW	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	85
T-2	T-36	Tim Lincecum	4/18	ARI	8	13	0	0.00*	0.55	85
T-2	T-57	Zack Greinke	4/18	TEX	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	83
T-2	T-23	Tim Lincecum	7/27	PIT	9	15	3	0.93	0.55	87
T-6	T-91	Ricky Nolasco	9/30	ATL	7.67	16	2	0.00*	0.53	81
T-6	T-4	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-8	T-75	Roy Halladay	9/25	SEA	9	9	0	1.29	0.52	82
T-8	T-19	Zack Greinke	4/24	DET	9	10	1	1.41	0.52	88
T-8	T-14	Wandy Rodriguez	7/8	PIT	9	11	1	1.17	0.52	87

*These games actually recorded negative FIP, but that of course broke the Pythagorean equation (at least on Excel). For those games I used a FIP of 0.

What do we see in these two lists? Well first off, none of these games are actually bad. There were a few games in the overall list in which pitchers had mediocre Three True Outcomes performances but allowed few hits and runs, resulting in good Game Scores but mediocre WAR totals. But in the top 10 performances, there were no poor performances to be shown, unsurprisingly. Also, the top 10 Game WAR list is comforting because it contains a lot of names from whom we would expect to see great starts, particularly Cy Young winners Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum. As a whole, these 121 games totaled 45.5 WAR if added up (which I know isn't really the correct method for calculating the WAR as a whole, but it likely comes close) in 1027 innings, a rate of 0.40 WAR/ 9 innings. Only Roy Halladay's start versus the Yankees came out as "average" for the sample.

That being said, there is not a whole lot of agreement between the two lists. Only two games appear in both lists, Cliff Lee's Philadelphia start versus Arizona and the overall leader, Sanchez's no-hitter against the Padres. In the 121-start sample, the R-squared of between Game Score and Game WAR was 0.26, and this should come as no surprise. Pitchers receive the full credit for all aspects of the game under Game Score, while FIP attempts to separate out defensive contributions. The strikeouts, walks/HBP, and home runs are there, but the remainder of the hits and outs are not credited to the pitcher in FIP.

When looking at the Game Score formula, I found that it weights innings pitched very heavily, as it gives bonus points for innings pitched/outs made after the fourth inning. When looking at the top 50 performances by Game Score, only 10 starts were of less than nine innings, and only one lasted less than eight. In the entire sample, 51 starts lasted fewer than nine innings. When ranked by Game WAR, 18 performances of less than nine innings made the top 50. I do think that shows some bias towards complete games that isn't reflected in the Game WAR ranking.

The home run, on the other hand, was punished more severely in the Game WAR system than the Game Score system. The first start to contain a home run when ranking by Game Score was Javier Vazquez's 6/11 start against Pittsburgh, ranked 32nd on the list. He struck out 12 and walked none in eight innings, picking up a 2-1 loss (and people think he pitched poorly!). However, when ranked by Game WAR, the first appearance of a home run comes from Gavin Floyd's 9/5 start against Boston, in which he gives up one homer, while striking out 11 and walking none in eight innings. That start is ranked 58th. Vazquez's start is ranked 63rd. While Game Score weights your average home run at maybe -2 to -3 points on a scale beginning at 50, home runs have a much more staggering weight on performance in WAR, especially at such low inning totals. Allowing one homer in nine innings of play already starts your FIP at 4.63, well below the league average of around 4.3-4.4. As a comparison, when tallying all the statistics of these games as a unit, the average game FIP was 2.02 in these 121 games.

Some more interesting notes:

- Lincecum appears three times on the list, and Greinke appears four times. As you saw in the Game WAR top 10, two of each of their starts appear, in alternating order, tied for second on the list with 0.55 WAR. Amazing seasons.

- The most victimized team was, unsurprisingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The team appeared ten times as opponents, being victimized for 4.1 WAR.

- The worst start, after park adjustment, belongs to Chris Carpenter, who struck out three and allowed one homer among three hits in a complete game against Cincinnati.

- Dan Haren was the only pitcher to allow more than one home run, giving up two solo jacks among 10 strikeouts and no walks in nine innings in a 7-2 win against the Chicago Cubs.

- There were four starts made in San Diego, with an average Game Score of 82 but an average Game WAR of 0.26. Unsurprisingly, there were no starts in Colorado, though i suspect after park adjustment, a few Coors Field starts would do well in the Game WAR method.

Consistency Talk

As I mentioned, I collected the game logs for three Yankees starters for 2009, Burnett, Pettitte, and Sabathia. I uploaded them here for your viewing pleasure; the WAR and Game Score details are the end of the sheet for each player.

Here are the average and standard deviations for each player.

Player	Avg GmWAR	StdDev	Avg GmWARDiff	StdDev
A.J. Burnett	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.26
Andy Pettitte	0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.17
C.C. Sabathia	0.18	0.16	0.00	0.21

GmWARDiff refers to the difference in GmWAR between consecutive starts. I don't really think standard deviation is the way to go to measure something like this, and Jeff Zimmerman has said that doing something that breaks down performance into buckets with assigned percentage chances of the pitcher's team winning would be more appropriate. Perhaps using Game WAR would be more beneficial in this methodology, since Game WAR is technically representative of a fraction of an actual win during a game.

Still, if you take this at face value, you can see that, as Jeff pointed out, the standard deviations between actual start values aren't all that different between the three pitchers, only one of which has a reputation as an inconsistent pitcher. If you take the standard deviation of the pitcher's start-to-start differences, Burnett does seem to have a higher value, signifying that he is "more inconsistent," though I don't think it's all that worse than Sabathia.

I think this was an interesting look, and if I get a chance (i.e. time) a little bit later, I might pick up all of the game logs for 2009 and check out FIP-WAR for each of them. I certainly think that, if we wanted to compare individual game performances, this would be a better way to go than using Game Score.

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

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The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers Can Clinch Playoff Spot Today

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Celebration one of five will come soon, perhaps as soon as today.

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The Dodgers today can become the second team in baseball, joining the Yankees, to clinch a playoff spot. However, they need a little help. The Rockies are the wild card leaders, but the Giants and Braves are tied for second. Here are their records:

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	91-60	---
Rockies	86-65	5
Giants	81-70	10
Braves	81-70	10

The Dodgers can clinch a spot in the playoffs today if the following three things happen:

They beat the Nationals
Arizona beats the Giants
The Mets beat the Braves

Here are today's Dodger-relevant pitching matchups:

4:05pm
Dodgers (Chad Billingsley: 12-10, 3.66 FIP) at Nationals (Ross Detwiler: 0-6, 3.75 FIP)

The Dodgers have scored 33 runs in three games against Washington this season.

4:10pm
Braves (Tim Hudson: 1-1, 3.71 FIP) at Mets (Mike Pelfrey: 10-11, 4.33 FIP)

The Braves have won seven straight against the Mets, and 12 of 17 this season.

7:10pm
Giants (Jonathan Sanchez: 6-12, 4.04 FIP) at Diamondbacks (Kevin Mulvey: 0-1, 6.78 FIP)

The Giants won each of the first two series in Arizona this season, two games to one. This series is currently tied at one.

The last time the Dodgers made the playoffs in three out of four years was 1963, 1965, and 1966.

Fantasy Baseball: On the spot

Ian, yo — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 00:13:04 -0000

As we approach the end of the fantasy baseball season, you may be looking out for spot starts more than normal. Over the last few weeks, I've been spot starting and keeping an eye on matchups and it's been pretty successful. The basis of this strategy should be to start guys against offenses such as the Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Diego and the Kansas City's of the MLB. I'd also keep in mind where these matchups are taking place. I'm likely taking my chances of someone pitching in Petco Park in San Diego over someone starting at Coors in Colorado. For some stats on park factors, I recommend checking out this. Over the last week, I managed to get the following starts by using a combination of these strategies.

Kevin Correia @ Pittsburgh :7 IP, 1 W, 0 ER, 6 H, 5 K

Clayton Richard @ Pittsburgh: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K

Brian Duensing vs. Oakland: 7 IP,1 W, 8 H, 0 ER, 6 K

Robinson Tejada @ Detroit: 5 IP, 1 W, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 K

Over the next week, you'll find a decent amount of matchups that could help you on your push to fantasy gold.

Jorge De La Rosa: I'm adding him in after some further thought. Post All-Star break, De La Rosa has put up an ERA of 2.89 while winning 9 of his 12 starts with 80 K's in 78 innings. I have hesitation due to his 4.77 ERA at home this season but I'll likely take my chances against a poor San Diego offense.

Bronson Arroyo: Not owned in a ton of leagues and over the last month has posted an ERA of 2.08 in 43.1 innings. He'll see the Pirates on Thursday the 24th and in his last start against them had a solid line of 8 IP, 4 H, 4 Ks.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz Hasn't faced the Royals this season but has done a fairly decent job of shutting down better offenses this year. Over his last three starts, he's allowed fewer than one run against the Orioles and Rays and on the season has allowed less than two earned runs again the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and the Athletics. He's had two games where he gave up seven earned against the Orioles and White Sox but has been good overall. Buchholz's lack of experience against Kansas City could prove beneficial and allow him to be a solid spot start this week.

Hiroki Kuroda: In his 19 starts, Kuroda has had four games where he's given up more than three earned runs. Washington ranks near the middle of the pack in runs scored but Kuroda has put up decent numbers against some of the better offenses (St. Louis, Florida, Milwaukee, Chicago White Sox) so I have no huge concerns starting him. Just beware that the Washington offense is fairly underrated and could give anyone a hard time at any moment.

Brett Anderson: He'll get a Texas offense that ranks 10th in the AL in the month of September at home in a largely pitching favorable park in Oakland. Anderson has big K potential, striking out ten Indians on September 18th. Over the last month, Anderson's pitched 31 innings and 30 K with an ERA of 2.90 and WHIP of 1.10. He's not owned in many leagues and could easily be a successful spot starter for you.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Rowland-Smith @ TB, Wade Davis vs. SEA at home, Jonathan Sanchez @ AZ, Tim Wakefield @ KC, Brian Duensing @ CWS.

Giant Bats Batter the Dodgers

Brendan Scolari — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 07:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

See ya ball.

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The Giants doubled up the Dodgers tonight 8-4, not on the strength of their traditionally formidable pitching staff, but on the backs of their hitters. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez didn't even last log enough to qualify for a win, going only 4.1 innings while allowing 5 hits, 4 runs, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts. However, the Dodger pitching staff was not up to the task either. They allowed 15 hits, including 6 that went for extra bases.

Vicente Padilla allowed a homerun to Eugenio Velez leading off the game, which portended things to come. In the bottom of the first the first four Dodgers reached base but only one run scored thanks to a Russell Martin double play and a nice (if lucky) play by Jonathan Sanchez to snag a screaming Matt Kemp liner. The one Dodger run scored on a Manny Ramirez double.

Padilla and Sanchez escaped trouble until the third inning, when Pablo Sandoval rocketed a low line drive out to right center that got out in a hurry to score three runs and put the Giants up 4-1. Sanchez returned the favor in the fourth, well, sort of. He threw a 3-2 fastball six inches below Manny's knee's but that wasn't good enough to retire one of the greatest hitters ever, Manny lofted it into the left field seats anyway. That brought the score to 4-3, but that didn't last long. The very next inning Rafael Furcal hit a solo homerun to tie the score at 4 and chase Sanchez from the game.

Ramon Troncoso came in for the top of the 6th inning and was knocked around, allowing three doubles in just two thirds of an inning to put the Giants back up by two. The Dodger offense couldn't muster a comeback from there and fell to the Giants 8-4.

The last two Giants runs came off of Chad Billingsley, who struggled mightily in his relief appearance. Billingsley was supposed to go the last two innings of the game but coudln't close out the ninth and had to be lifted for Guillermo Mota to get the last out with the bases loaded. Chad allowed a homerun to Aaron Rowand, three singles, and two walks in his 1.2 innings pitched. He also didn't strike anyone out, which certainly isn't an encouraging sign for Dodger fans.

Here's the win probability chart for the game. The odds of winning were in the Dodgers favor as late as the sixth inning:

via www.fangraphs.com

Tomorrow Jon Garland (10-11) takes on Brad Penny (10-8) at 1:10 PM in the second game of the three game set. The Dodgers magic number to clinch a playoff spot remains at 8 for the time being.

WP - Bob Howry (2-6): 0.2 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 strikeouts

LP - Ramon Troncoso (4-4): 0.2 IP, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 1 strikeout

Dodgers Begin a New Series Against an Old Rival

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 22:27:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

7 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Juan Uribe, left, tags out Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp in the sixth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, April 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	88	59	.598	0	Won 3
Colorado	83	64	.564	5	Won 1
San Francisco	79	67	.541	8.5	Lost 1
San Diego	66	81	.448	22	Won 1
Arizona	64	83	.435	24	Lost 1

(updated 9.18.2009 at 3:21 PM PDT)

After sweeping the Pirates for the first time since 2006, the Dodgers will look to do the same this weekend against a familiar division foe. Tonight at 7:10 PM the Dodgers will be taking on the Giants at Dodger Stadium, with Vicente Padilla facing off against Jonathan Sanchez.

This is the Dodgers final series against the Giants this season. So far they have won 9 of the 15 games between the two teams. The Dodgers magic number entering today is eight, so a combination of eight Dodger wins and Giants losses would clinch the Dodgers 3rd playoff birth in the last four seasons. If the Dodgers hang on to win the NL West it will be the first time they have done so in back-to-back seasons since the 1977-1978 seasons. The magic number to clinch the NL West is 11.

And of course, today is the third anniversary of the 4+1 game. So make sure to celebrate that!

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes You're Out!" here.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Gameday Preview

MLB Trade Rumors: Prince Fielder To The Red Sox??

raygu — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

3 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Prince Fielder (28) hits a walk-off home run during the 12th inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009, in Milwaukee. The Brewers won 2-1. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Yesterday, ESPN's Buster Olney speculated in his blog that the Brewers should take advantage of Prince Fielder's great season by dealing him in the offseason to the Red Sox.

Here is what he had to say on the Prince to the Sox speculation:

Prince Fielder tied the Brewers' club RBI mark -- which, of course, won't make it any easier for Milwaukee to keep him long-term. Pure speculation: I think he'll be playing for the Red Sox next season. As Keith Law wrote the other day, the Brewers will soon face the quandary of capitalizing on his trade value after this season or risking losing him after the 2011 season.

Then in his chat yesterday afternoon, he speculated the following:

Don (NYC)

So your gut tells you that Prince will be playing in Boston next year? That seems to leave the RS with a lot of 1B/3b/DH types. I presume that means that you think the Sox either eat Lowell's contract or Ortiz' contract. Or both?

Buster Olney
(1:12 PM)

Don: It was just a guess, and you know what -- I'm thinking there could be a better fit with the Brewers for a Fielder trade, anyway: The San Franciso Giants. Pure speculation: Fielder for Cain makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons, which I'll write about in Tuesday's blog.

I have to think that with the mini-breakout in the second half by Giants pitcher Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants desperation for a middle of the order bat may lead them to dealing Matt Cain. Dealing for Fielder would push Pablo Sandoval back to third base.

But, should the Brewers deal Fielder to the Red Sox, they could receive several pitching prospects in return. Who could they in return? Maybe Michael Bowden or Clay Bucholz, or both. Fielder's contract for 2010 is an affordable $10 million, but will increase in 2011 when he goes to arbitration. Arbitration is one of the reasons why the Brewers may deal Fielder in the offseason. The other reason is they don't have a spot on the field for Mat Gamel's bat. The main reason for dealing Fielder is obviously pitching.

Which deal should the Brewers pursue?

Poll

Should the Brewers deal Prince Fielder for Matt Cain or a couple pitching prospects?

Red Sox prospects-they are major league ready.

55 votes

Caiin-he gives the Brewers the No. 2 starter they need so badly.

87 votes

142 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers Pound Giants Again

Eric Stephen — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 07:31:13 -0000

More photos » by Tony Avelar - AP

Russell Martin crosses the plate after hitting a three-run home run in the fourth inning.

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The Dodgers continued to slowly choke the life out of the Giants Saturday night, winning 9-1 in San Francisco. The win widened the Dodgers' division lead to three games over the Rockies, who actually lost a game tonight, in San Diego. In the "just in case" division, the Dodgers hold an 8½-game lead in the wild card over both San Francisco and Florida.

Vicente Padilla improved to 3-0 as a Dodger, allowing only an unearned run in six innings. The run scored as a result of Padilla's throwing error on a sacrifice bunt in the third inning. Maybe instead of shagging flies during batting practice, Dodger pitchers can work on throws to first base. Actually, I have no reason to quibble with Padilla's performance, as he allowed six baserunners while striking out five batters.

The offense was led tonight by home runs from a pair of somewhat unlikely candidates. Russell Martin gave the Dodgers the lead with a three-run shot in the fourth inning, his fifth of the season. James Loney added a potential history-making home run with his 12th home run in the ninth inning. Loney qualifies only as somewhat unlikely, because his road performance has been so good. On the road, Loney is hitting .312/.386/.494, with all 12 of his home runs, which is for now the Dodger record for most home runs hit in a season, all on the road.

The Dodgers tacked on single runs in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, to put this game away, although it could be argued the game was already over once the Dodgers got their fourth run. The Giants offense has struggled all season, but lately it has been even worse, scoring three runs or less in eight of their last nine games.

The Dodger offense seems to be coming alive at the right time, and has scored 44 runs in their last seven games.

I was away from a computer most of the night, so I was late catching up to the game thread, but props to Max D Sterling for a nice use of the word "daffy." Well done, sir.

Chad Billingsley takes the hill tomorrow, as the Dodgers try to sweep the Giants, who will counter with Brad Penny. I would give anything to hear a microphone on Larry Bowa all game, or at least the four innings Penny will pitch.

WP - Vicente Padilla (3-0): 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 unearned run, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts

LP - Jonathan Sanchez (6-12): 4.1 IP, 5 hits, 5 runs (4 earned), 3 walks, 4 strikeouts

Box Score

Kuroda Dazzles in Rout of the Giants

Brendan Scolari — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 07:42:48 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Casey Blake, right, is greeted at the plate by James Loney after Blake's two-run home run off San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain during the sixth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Friday, Sept. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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The Dodgers beat the Giants 10-3 on Friday in a true team effort. Hiroki Kuroda got the win, pitching 8 innings of 3 hit ball, while allowing 2 runs on 0 walks and 5 strikeouts. Kuroda only threw 86 pitches in the outing, and retired 19 consecutive batters strecthing from the second inning to the eighth inning.

Kuroda gave up his first run in the second inning, allowing a single by Bengie Molina and a double by Juan Uribe. Molina scored on a groundout by Nate Schierholtz that started his conseective out run. The only other run he allowed was in the eighth inning when John Bowker tripled on a fly ball to "Triples Alley" and then scored on a Ryan Rohlinger groundout. Kuroda came out after the eigth inning and was replaced by Ramon Troncoso, who allowed one run before finishing the game. After the game Kuroda said:

"I would like to finish as strong as I did last year. We're in first place and Colorado is really close, and my thought is to pitch my game and contribute to the team so we can win a championship and the World Series. I've gone through a lot, the DL twice, I got hit in the head for the first time in 13 years of professional baseball. I'd like to finish really strong."

But it definitely wasn't all Kuroda, the offense was clicking as well. The Dodgers scored the first two runs of the game in the first inning when James Loney cashed in two Dodger singles on a double to right center. But no more runs came across until the sixth inning, when Casey Blake (in his first game back after sitting out the previous five) smacked a two-run homerun to left field, putting the Dodgers up 4-1. The game was broken open in the seventh when the Dodgers tacked on five more runs. Four straight batters reached base to start the inning, and following a sacrifice fly by Loney, a single by Blake, and a double by Russell Martin the Dodgers were up 9-1. The offense capped it off with another run in the eigth inning when Matt Kemp hit a double to score Juan Pierre and give th Dodgers 10 runs on the night.

On offense six of the eight starting position players reached base muliple times, with only Rafael Furcal and Ronnie Belliard reaching once. Ethier, Kemp, and Blake all scored twice and Blake and Loney each had three RBI's.

Here's the win probability chart for the game:

via www.fangraphs.com

The win kept the Dodgers 2 games ahead of the surging Rockies (currently on an eight game winning streak) and left the Giants 7.5 games back in the NL West. The Dodgers are currently tied with the Cardinals for the best record in the National League and 2.5 games ahead of the Phillies. Tommorow Vicente Padilla (10-6, 4.63) takes on Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03) at 6:05 PM.

WP - Hiroki Kuroda (6-6): 8 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts

LP - Matt Cain (13-5): 6 IP, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts

SB Nation - Jonathan Sanchez

Beyond the Game Score: Park-Adjusted Game WAR

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Links

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

Sanchez

Dodgers Can Clinch Playoff Spot Today

Fantasy Baseball: On the spot

Giant Bats Batter the Dodgers

Dodgers Begin a New Series Against an Old Rival

NL West Standings

MLB Trade Rumors: Prince Fielder To The Red Sox??

Don (NYC)

Buster Olney (1:12 PM)

Should the Brewers deal Prince Fielder for Matt Cain or a couple pitching prospects?

Red Sox prospects-they are major league ready.

Caiin-he gives the Brewers the No. 2 starter they need so badly.

Dodgers Pound Giants Again

Kuroda Dazzles in Rout of the Giants

Buster Olney
(1:12 PM)