SB Nation - Matt Cain

How Are Things In Your Neck Of The Woods?

PSTIM1 — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 17:00:38 -0000

Even Sing's giant Jesus piece couldn't prevent the Niner's season from ending in December.

Sunday was a tough day for me, first my fantasy team decided to sh*t the proverbial bed, the 49ers were officially eliminated from the playoffs and I am sure somewhere the Warriors lost. Maybe the Sharks won, but who knows and who really care's? The Raider's won and that was positive but they are still a long ways away. The A's continue to make a series of confounding moves that seem to guarantee them cellar status in the AL West and possibly a move to Las Vegas. Needless to say on Sunday night I felt like i needed to join a support group for fans with no hope, or at least up my dosage of Prozac. My friend summed it up pretty well when he sent me this email:

“The Warriors blow, the Raiders and Niners are harder to figure out than female sex organs, fantasy football ended in ball stomping defeat, where the F are those pitchers and catchers? It's time for baseball, and if anyone wants to talk about the A's lack of apparent strategy or our chances of finishing higher than fifth in our division (yes I'm aware there are four teams) please let me know. I need a break from this misery"

Does any fan base have a future outlook as terrible as the Bay Area? Let me know if you think your situation is worse - misery just loves company!

Poll

Which Bay Area Team Sucks The Most

Fantasy Baseball: Javier Vazquez: Fantasy Stud.

Ian, yo — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:01:33 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

4 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Javier Vazquez pitches to the Florida Marlins in baseball game action Thursday, July 30, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

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When you head into your draft in 2010, I ask that you keep Javier Vazquez in the back of your mind. In 2009, Vazquez put up numbers worthy of being the NL's number two pitcher according to Keith Law.

Vazquez has been bounced all over the MLB, going from the NL to AL five times in his twelve year career. In all but four seasons in his career, Vazquez has had an FIP under 4 as well.

Much of Vazquez's success lies in his ability to maintain a high K/9 and keep his walks low. While I don't expect Vazquez to keep his K/9 at his career high of 9.77, or keep his BB/9 at it's second lowest total in his career, I do think Vazquez can put up good numbers in the national league. There really are no largely apparent signals that Vazquez will regress. His GB% was roughly 2% lower than his career average and his FB% was down about 5% while his HR/FB remained relatively neutral.

If Vazquez were again moved back to the AL, you could expect the normal increase in ERA, but if you're drafting Vazquez hoping for 200 innings, 200 Ks, an ERA around 3-3.50 and a WHIP hovering in the 1.10-1.30 range, you will not be disappointed.

If I were drafting today, I would happily take Vazquez over Chris Carpenter, Jon Lester, Matt Cain and I'd strongly consider taking him over Adam Wainwright (who's FIP had him pegged as an inferior pitcher to Vazquez.)

Poll

Would you draft Javier Vazquez over Adam Wainwright if you drafted today?

Fantasy Baseball: FIP Losers in 2010?

raygu — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:15:10 -0000

by Jack Dempsey - AP

Is J.A. Happ a one year wonder?

View full size photo »

Yesterday I posted an article discussing the pitchers with the best FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which aims to give fantasy/roto owners a clearer picture of how well, or not so well, a pitcher performed in 2009.

Today I give you the pitchers whose FIP was higher than their ERA in 2009, who could see their ERA's rise in 2010:

6.45

3.04

2.13

1.08

0.241

1.23

0.270

85.20%

2.93

4.33

-1.40

Kevin Millwood

5.57

3.22

1.73

1.18

0.258

1.34

0.279

78.60%

3.67

4.80

-1.13

Jair Jurrjens

6.36

3.14

2.03

0.63

0.235

1.21

0.273

79.40%

2.60

3.68

-1.08

Matt Cain

7.07

3.02

2.34

0.91

0.231

1.18

0.268

81.60%

2.89

3.89

-0.99

Bronson Arroyo

5.19

2.66

1.95

1.27

0.256

1.27

0.270

76.50%

3.84

4.78

-0.94

Randy Wells

5.66

2.5

2.26

0.76

0.261

1.28

0.294

76.00%

3.05

3.88

-0.83

John Danks

6.69

3.28

2.04

1.26

0.246

1.28

0.273

77.70%

3.77

4.59

-0.82

Rick Porcello

4.69

2.74

1.71

1.21

0.268

1.34

0.281

75.50%

3.96

4.77

-0.82

John Lannan

3.88

2.97

1.31

0.96

0.265

1.35

0.276

72.70%

3.88

4.70

-0.81

Ross Ohlendorf

5.55

2.7

2.06

1.27

0.249

1.23

0.265

76.30%

3.92

4.72

-0.80

Jarrod Washburn

5.11

2.51

2.04

1.18

0.244

1.19

0.257

75.40%

3.78

4.58

-0.80

Randy Wolf

6.72

2.44

2.76

1.01

0.227

1.10

0.257

77.30%

3.23

3.96

-0.72

Doug Davis

6.46

4.56

1.42

1.11

0.261

1.50

0.294

76.00%

4.12

4.84

-0.72

Trevor Cahill

4.53

3.63

1.25

1.36

0.269

1.44

0.276

72.60%

4.63

5.33

-0.70

Edwin Jackson

6.77

2.94

2.3

1.14

0.249

1.26

0.281

76.70%

3.62

4.28

-0.67

Johan Santana

7.88

2.48

3.17

1.08

0.249

1.21

0.296

78.00%

3.13

3.79

-0.66

Mark Buehrle

4.43

1.9

2.33

1.14

0.27

1.25

0.282

74.70%

3.84

4.46

-0.62

Felix Hernandez

8.18

2.68

3.06

0.57

0.229

1.14

0.289

76.70%

2.49

3.09

-0.60

Joe Saunders

4.89

3.1

1.58

1.4

0.278

1.43

0.290

73.50%

4.60

5.17

-0.57

Ted Lilly

7.68

1.83

4.19

1.12

0.232

1.06

0.270

77.80%

3.10

3.65

-0.55

The last column in this chart gives you the difference between the pitcher's ERA and FIP for 2009. As you can see, the Phillies J.A. Happ may have benefitted from an extreme LOB% of 85% this year. Looking at his peripherals, he gives up more than a HR/9 and his K/BB% is just over 2, which is good, but not great.

The Giants Matt Cain is another pitcher whose LOB% was over 80%, which is above AVG, so we can expect his ERA to rise in 2010. Cain benefitted from a reduced GB% and LD% in 2009, but his HR/FB% was the highest in his career. Something to watch in 2010.

The Braves Jair Jurrjens LOB% approached 80% as well, which is the highest of his young career so far. His 2009 FIP of 3.68 is exactly what his ERA was in 2008, so I would expect his ERA to rise in 2010.

A couple big name pitchers on this list to watch out for are the Mariners Felix Hernandez and the Mets Johan Santana.

Poll

Are you buying JA Happ's rookie season in 2009?

Yes, he pitches for the best team in the NL, and should give you double digit wins.

26 votes

No, his peripherals are ok at best.

40 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

Midday quick hits: Cubs, Derek Lowe, Giants, Twins vs. Tigers

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:09:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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Here are some links making the headlines on this Tuesday afternoon:

The Cubs have some issues they plan to address early this offseason, which start with moving Milton Bradley. The Cubs may look to swap bad contracts, but could look into trading for Jeremy Hermida, who the Marlins plan to shop. After that, the Cubs may dangle Jake Fox on the open market. Fox dominated Triple-A hitters and put up impressive numbers with the big league club. He could draw interest from an AL team looking for a cheap DH option. The Mariners come to mind, and the Orioles could emerge if they fail to find a replacement at third base.
Speaking of the Orioles hot corner, MASN suggests that the Orioles could make a strong push to land infielder Chone Figgins. Figgins would give the Orioles even more speed at the top of the order, while also giving them a legitimate run producer. They would have to overpay to lure him to Baltimore, but he could have an impact on Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters.
The Braves plan to shop Derek Lowe this offseason, who regressed this season in his first year with the Braves. His sinker wasn't as deceptive, which hurt the effectiveness of his other pitches. He has three years and 45 million dollars left on his contract, so finding a taker may be difficult. The Braves could look to swap bad contracts, contact the Tigers about Magglio Ordonez or even the White Sox about Alex Rios.
The Giants would not go as far to rule out trading Matt Cain, but at the moment appear reluctant to make a move. The Brewers' Prince Fielder has been talked about before, and it is possible they could explore that avenue again this offseason.
Who is going to win the Twins vs. Tigers one game playoff tonight? Focus in Detroit has been shifted to Miguel Cabrera's off the field incidents, which could have an impact on tonight's game. Playing at home, riding a lot of momentum, and following an impressive Vikings win on national television, it seems like the Twins have the advantage. What do you think?

Brewers make pitching a priority

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:59:39 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said that pitching is a priority for the Brewers this offseason, and is giving GM Doug Melvin some flexibility to make a move.

"Doug has to decide based on how much capital is available," Attanasio said. "He looks at how much money is available, the guys whose contracts are coming off, the guys he might be able to trade. He can get pitching through trades or free agents."

Pitching is scarce this offseason due to the weak free agent market, which could make teams more reluctant to trade pitching. Attanasio didn't rule out trading Prince Fielder, who is hitting a career best .297 with 43 home runs this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Prince Fielder	156	569	99	169	35	3	43	137	102	134	2	3	.297	.406	.596

The Giants seem like a very logical destination for Fielder. The Giants have the pitching that could entice the Brewers, who are looking for a legitimate number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo. Matt Cain's name has been mentioned, but he is under contract through the 2011 season, while Fielder will be a free agent after next season.

The Brewers could attempt to move Prince Fielder to the Indians for Grady Sizemore, among others. The Brewers could look to acquire young pitchers Carlos Carrasco or Aaron Laffey, or attempt to snag a package of young pitchers from the Indians' minor league system.

The Indians would land an impact power hitter, who they could always move at the trade deadline in 2010 if they cannot sign him long-term (similar to what the Braves did with Mark Teixeira).

Another possibility would be to contact the Blue Jays about trading Prince Fielder for Roy Halladay. Who would benefit more from this trade?

Requiem For A Season: Cubs Lose Road Finale 5-1 To Giants

Al — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:18:34 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

Jeff Baker is 6-2, 210. Pablo Sandoval makes him look... tiny.

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Throughout this September, with the Cubs desperately clinging to hope of a postseason berth with a 16-9 start to the month, I kept thinking "stranger things have happened". From time to time, as you know, I'd cite various other late-season pennant collapses or pushes, such as the 1964 Phillies or 2007 Rockies, as examples of why the Cubs could come back.

Now, though, if the Cubs were to somehow pull off a miracle finish, you'd have to say "stranger things have NOT happened". With four teams ahead of them and an elimination number of one, the race is, for all intents and purposes, over.

It would, however, be fun if somehow the five teams wound up in what Baseball Musings' David Pinto calls a "massive tie". Today Pinto posts the way in which four teams could wind up tied for the NL Wild Card. That'd be fun to watch if only to see how Bud Selig would have to sputter his way through the method of breaking the tie. Right now the team with the best chance of pulling a "miracle" finish is the Braves, who on September 6 were seven games off the wild-card pace and who have now won six in a row and closed to within 2.5 games of the lead.

Yesterday, the Cubs missed their chance to have their first-ever four-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, losing to the Giants 5-1. Randy Wells didn't pitch too badly, but he kept getting nibbled at; he allowed eight singles and two RBI doubles to a backup catcher (Eli Whiteside) who was hitting .197 at the start of the game. How many times have we heard that story this year? Give some credit to the Giants' Matt Cain, who is one of the better pitchers in the league and who tied the Cubs in knots, throwing eight shutout innings before the Cubs got a consolation run off the Giants' bullpen. The Cubs did get enough men on base in the ninth to force Bruce Bochy to call on his closer, Brian Wilson, to finish it off.

So the Cubs will come home for a season-ending seven-game homestand against two bad teams, the Pirates and Diamondbacks, with a chance to at least end the season strong. Some will say that if the Cubs win all seven (for example) and finish the year with 88 wins, that it would "fool" management into thinking there aren't any problems. I disagree. Management clearly knows what they did wrong this year -- the sending-home of Milton Bradley is evidence of that -- and though this isn't an excuse, injuries, particularly to Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano, held this year's team back from winning more games.

The first win will give the Cubs three consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1970-71-72. The 82nd win will also make Lou Piniella the first Cubs manager to have winning seasons in his first three years since Charlie Grimm in 1933-34-35. That's a worthy goal. And any baseball player with professional pride should want to win every time he goes on the field.

I was trying to think of comparisons in Cubs history to the disappointment we have felt over the 2009 Cubs, and "disappointment" is the right word. This wasn't a bad Cubs team, just one that wasn't quite good enough. That would make a comparison to 2004 inapt, because the 2004 Cubs were tremendously talented. Their late-season collapse wasn't in any way comparable to 2009 -- the 2004 team had the wild card in its grasp and blew it.

It's not comparable to 2001, because that was a team of overachievers that probably had no business being in contention that long. That team wound up with 88 wins; the current bunch would have to sweep the homestand to do that -- not an impossible task given the opposition. (We also wouldn't want the 2010 Cubs to do what the 2002 Cubs did -- lose 95 games.)

It's also not comparable to the 1977-78-79 teams, Cubs clubs that either were in first place or nearby for a couple of months each, because this team had far more talent than any of those.

No, I think the best comp to the 2009 Cubs would be the 1970 edition. Similarly to 2009, the 1970 Cubs had to play after a season filled with wonders, only to have the previous year's team collapse -- 2008 in the playoffs, 1969 in September. And like this year's team, after 1969 the Cubs made one significant change: they sent Oscar Gamble and Dick Selma to the Phillies for a washed-up Johnny Callison. Not only was Callison not nearly the player he had been three or four years before, but Gamble eventually became a productive player elsewhere. This forced the 1970 Cubs to play nonentities like Cleo James, Joe Pepitone, Jimmie Hall, a 33-year-old Jim Hickman, and even (for one game) Glenn Beckert in center field, much as the 2009 Cubs have mixed and matched at various positions. The 1970 Cubs got off to a hot start, racing out to a five-game lead by mid-June, and then lost 12 in a row. They never recovered -- just as the eight-game losing streak this year put the Cubs in a spot from which they just barely got back into first place in late July before having an awful August.

But also like this year's team, the 1970 Cubs had one brief "maybe" moment in September. On September 13 at Wrigley Field, the Cubs were down to their last out trailing 2-1, when Matty Alou of the Pirates dropped a routine fly ball. Given new life, the Cubs followed with three straight hits, winning the game 3-2 and moving them to within one game of first place with 17 games left. Unfortunately, the Cubs went 8-9 in those 17 games and finished five games out of first place, the closest they would come to first place in the 1967-73 era of contention.

Enough of the history lesson. Let's hope the Cubs play some fun and winning baseball in the next week, because we will all miss baseball while it is away for the winter.

Looking To Make History: Cubs vs. Giants Preview, Sunday 9/27, 3:05 CT

Al — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

I just like this photo of So Taguchi. Scoring runs is fun!

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The Giants moved from New York to San Francisco 51 years ago, in 1958. Since then, the Cubs have played them in San Francisco in a four-game series 23 times.

The number of times a Cubs team has swept a Giants team on the road in those 23 tries is zero. So the 2009 Cubs has a chance to do something that's never been done before by a Cubs team -- sweep the Giants in a four-game set in San Francisco. The Cubs did sweep the Giants in a four-game series at Wrigley Field in 1963. The final game of that series, on June 6, was memorable. Reliever Lindy McDaniel came into a tie game in the 10th inning with the bases loaded. He picked Willie Mays off second base, struck out Ed Bailey, then hit a walkoff homer leading off the bottom of the 10th. That is the only time the Cubs have swept the Giants at all in a four-game series since they moved West in 1958.

There was an article the other day by Paul Sullivan speculating on whether the Giants would trade Aaron Rowand for Milton Bradley. Thought you would like to see a couple of FanShots from McCovey Chronicles with some thoughts from Giants fans on whether they'd do it or not. And, you can cross the Royals off the list of teams that might want Bradley, with pretty strong language quoted by Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star:

Royals officials dismiss — in strong terms — reports of possible interest in acquiring outfielder Milton Bradley from the Cubs. "Idiots" was one of the nicer comments directed at those offering such speculation.

Site note: tonight is Yom Kippur, so today's game recap will be delayed until tomorrow morning.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Matt Cain Giants

11-9	W-L	13-7
3.00	ERA	2.99
93	SO	158
43	BB	70
14	HR	22
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	11-9	25	25	0	0	0	0	153.0	152	62	51	14	43	93	3.00	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	13-7	31	31	4	0	0	0	204.2	175	71	68	22	70	158	2.99	1.20

Matt Cain last faced the Cubs on July 11, 2008 at Wrigley Field. He and Jason Marquis both threw seven shutout innings that day, but the Cubs won 3-1 when Aramis Ramirez hit a three-run homer off reliever Tyler Walker. In fact, Cain didn't give up a run to the 2008 NL scoring leaders in two starts last year. This year, Cain has overall good numbers, but has lost his last three starts, in which he has a 9.42 ERA. Derrek Lee, who we hope will be back in the lineup today, is 4-for-15 with a double and HR off Cain and Aramis Ramirez is 3-for-10.

Randy Wells talked Lou into giving him two more starts, so he'll go today and then Saturday at home vs. the Diamondbacks. Randy's walk rate is up a bit this month (10 in 26.1 innings) but he has still posted a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He has never faced the Giants and the only player on their team who he has faced -- Freddy Sanchez in his Pirates days -- is now out for the season.

Today's game will have good announcers again (Len & Bob) on WGN and also on CSN Bay Area (Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Giants site McCovey Chronicles.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 4:15 and 5:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Trade Zambrano? Not After Spectacular 3-0 Shutout Of Giants

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:52:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Wow, Z. Why can't you do this every time?

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I have been, at times, the leader of the "Trade Zambrano" bandwagon. I did so after the Z - Michael Barrett dustup in 2007, and I told him to "grow up" after the memorable meltdown with umpire Mark Carlson last May.

But there is no doubt that Z is among the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he showed every bit of that talent in shutting out the Giants 3-0 on two hits. In addition to outstanding pitching -- throwing 67 strikes in 98 pitches and allowing just two singles, one by Juan Uribe and another by Tim Lincecum, and issuing a walk to Randy Winn -- Z drove in two of the three Cubs runs, the first by beating a double-play relay throw, and the second with a double to the base of the wall in left field.

Really, what more can you ask of a pitcher? Z took that intensity that we often have seen explode in histrionics and focused every bit of it on his pitching. If we knew that intensity could be that channeled in every single start, not one of us would be asking for him to be sent away (I've even heard a rumor of a "challenge trade" where he'd be sent to the White Sox for Jake Peavy).

And on a night when the start of the game was delayed about five minutes while the Giants presented their annual "Willie Mac" award for community service to Matt Cain (and emcee Mike Krukow gave a shout-out to Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, who won the award while playing for the Giants in 1984), Z and the Cubs accomplished all this in one hour and fifty-six minutes, the first nine-inning Cubs game finished in less than two hours in more than three years, since April 17, 2006, a 4-1 win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

With Aramis Ramirez still nursing a sore shoulder (Lou didn't want to play him on another chilly night in San Francisco) and Derrek Lee having a bit of a recurrence of his neck problems after an awkward slide stealing his first base of the year and then getting slapped on his helmet by Angel Guzman in the celebration following Jeff Baker's homer (D-Lee says he doesn't blame Guzman and will be back today), the Cubs put another spring-training-like lineup on the field last night, with Baker hitting cleanup and Bobby Scales again in left field. Scales played a competent LF in windy [Phone Holding Company] Park, and Baker drew two walks off Lincecum.

Sam Fuld had three hits, and Len Kasper pointed out during the game that he had singled off two Cy Young winners (Lincecum and Randy Johnson) in the same game. Wonder when that has happened before? The Cubs even scored a run off Johnson, something they've had trouble doing during the Big Unit's long and distinguished career.

But the star of the game was Z, who now has the only two complete-game shutouts for a Cubs pitcher since Jason Marquis threw a three-hitter vs. the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Z was, in many ways, just as dominant than during his no-hitter last September 14. Though he gave up the two singles, he threw fewer pitches and had Giants hitters flailing away at a devastating slider -- seven of the nine K's were swinging.

Keep up the good work, Z, and we'll be thrilled to see you retire as a Cub. And one more thing about recent Cubs baseball: I think I've enjoyed watching them play this week more than at any time all season. The 5-1 record posted since Sunday has included some fine play by just about everyone, and even the one loss was played well. Too bad we had to wait so long.

Finally, there were a lot more excellent entries in last night's photo caption contest. There were two who played off the "Dancing With The Stars" angle, but the winner is going to be the one who posted it first (by time stamp); that would be lohroffc, who posted, simply:

Fukudome and Velez audition for Dancing with the Stars.

Send me your mailing address and I'll send out the DVD. Today's preview thread will be up at 1 pm CDT.

Facing Lincecum: Cubs vs. Giants Preview, Friday 9/25, 9:15 CT

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 00:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Write your own caption; another prize for the best one.

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The last time the Cubs faced Tim Lincecum, on May 5 at Wrigley Field, Lou sent onto the field a makeshift lineup that included Joey Gathright leading off in CF (the only game he started as a Cub), Kosuke Fukudome batting third, Micah Hoffpauir hitting fifth, and Aaron Miles starting at SS and batting second (surprisingly enough, he actually worked a walk off Lincecum).

I really have no idea why Lou did this; maybe he was thinking "we're going to lose this game anyway to this pitcher, so I'll give my regulars some rest". And you know what, the spring training style lineup might have actually worked if Sean Marshall hadn't given up a three-run homer to Bengie Molina in the first inning. After that, Marshall settled down and matched Lincecum well for the next six innings; each of them allowed a pair of runs between the second and the seventh.

Tonight, there will be a few sub Cubs in the lineup again (see below), but this time out of necessity due to injuries and several other factors. With Carlos Zambrano on the mound, maybe this time, the Cubs can beat Lincecum; they have done so only once before, on August 21, 2007, and that was primarily the fault of the Giants' bullpen, though Jason Marquis matched up well with Lincecum that night. I was at that game in San Francisco; here's the recap I wrote the next day.

There are only three visiting teams that have a winning record at AT&T Park. Believe it or not, last night the Cubs (now 17-16) joined the Dodgers (43-38) and, amazingly, the Pirates (15-14) on that very short list. (Hat tip to BCB reader bison for the link.)

Lineup via Twittermyer:

Fukudome, rf; Theriot, ss; Ramirez, 3b; Hoffpauir, 1b; Baker, 2b; Scales, lf; Hill, c; Fuld, cf; Zambrano, p

Paul Sullivan asks whether the Giants might be a good match for Milton Bradley in an offseason trade and posits whether Aaron Rowand would be a good return:

... both GMs are motivated sellers, and a Rowand-Bradley deal would not be out of the realm of possibility. Rowand has three years and $36 million left on his contract, while Bradley has $21 million and two years left on his deal. Obviously more players would have to be involved, unless the Giants were willing to pay the Cubs around half of the $15 million difference in the contracts.

Well. Rowand has had a mediocre year (and looked awful striking out against Carlos Marmol last night) and is two years removed from his fine offensive season with the Phillies. But he is an outstanding center fielder; getting him would allow the Cubs to move Kosuke Fukudome back to RF (perhaps he could platoon with Reed Johnson there?) and maybe Rowand has one more good year left in him. Maybe some of the difference in salaries could be made up by asking the Giants to take Aaron Miles in return, too. If a deal like this were made, the Giants would probably have to leave Bradley home during any series at Wrigley Field. It's not the only option or even the best one, but it might be worth considering.

Finally, for the third day in a row, I found a fun photo for which I'll run another caption contest. Prize again is a DVD of "Chasing October". Previous winners can enter, but can't win again (ballhawk and KaliCub, who won last night for this entry).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Tim Lincecum Giants

8-6	W-L	14-6
3.91	ERA	2.47
138	SO	247
73	BB	63
10	HR	10
vs. SF	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	8-6	33	26	0	0	0	0	154.1	147	74	67	10	73	138	3.91	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	14-6	31	30	4	2	0	0	211.1	160	65	58	10	63	247	2.47	1.06

The crack in Tim Lincecum's armor might be his recent performance. Is he tiring at the end of a long season? In his last six starts he's a pedestrian 3-2, 3.69 with 20 walks in 39 innings. Maybe the Cubs can wait him out and get on base via walks tonight. The more pitches you make him throw, the quicker the Cubs can get into SF's bullpen. Derrek Lee is 6-for-16 (.375) with a pair of doubles vs. Lincecum, but he won't be starting tonight. And maybe someday, Lincecum will look like he's older than 15.

Carlos Zambrano hasn't faced the Giants since 2007, when they had quite a different-looking lineup than today's, on August 23, 2007. Z threw OK that day, but allowed his opposing pitcher, Matt Cain, to hit a two-run homer. Overall Z is 4-1, 3.40 in seven career starts vs. the Giants, and has not lost (3-0) in six road starts (2.76) since the All-Star break. Edgar Renteria (12-for-31, .387) and Randy Winn (6-for-11, two doubles, a HR) have hit Z well.

Today's game is CSN-centric; Chicago and Bay Area. In Chicago it'll be on CSN Plus, so "check local listings" for the channel on your system (CLTV in Chicago and 285 for the HD version if you have Comcast in the city). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

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Discuss amongst yourselves.

Phillies rule the roost in NL's three season standings, Rockies still need to do some climbing

Rox Girl — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:30:13 -0000

The Rockies current run of success started with their surprise Rocktober 2007 run. While some thought that was a fluke, especially after the big setback suffered by the team in 2008, with another likely playoff push in 2009, the Rockies have established their legitimacy as perennial contenders in the National League.

Still, a look at a bigger multi-year picture reveals that the Rockies aren't quite at a real peak in their success cycle just yet. Whether they actually get to elite status will be determined by the 2010 and 2011 teams, but for right now, it seems the Rockies are on a tier below the best teams in the National League.

Here are the updated three year NL Standings:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	257	218	.541	0	Won 3
Colorado	250	226	.525	7.5	Won 3
Arizona	238	238	.500	19.5	Won 1
San Francisco	224	251	.472	25.5	Lost 1
San Diego	221	256	.463	29.5	Lost 1

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	269	205	.568	0	Lost 1
New York	242	234	.508	28	Lost 2
Atlanta	237	238	.499	32.5	Won 2
Florida	236	239	.497	33.5	Won 1
Washington	183	290	.387	85.5	Lost 3

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Chicago	260	213	.550	0	Won 3
St. Louis	253	223	.532	8.5	Won 2
Milwaukee	247	228	.520	14	Lost 2
Houston	229	245	.483	31.5	Lost 9
Cincinnati	216	259	.455	45	Won 2
Pittsburgh	191	282	.404	69	Lost 4

Some observations after the jump....

First of all, the tiers of separation in the league start to stand out with this wide lens. During this three season period, three NL teams (Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago) have been at some sort of competitive peak. Three or four more teams (St. Louis, Colorado, Milwaukee and probably New York) have been in a tier below that where they are competitive most seasons but not quite dominant, and then there's the mediocre Arizona/Atlanta/Florida group below them that act as spoilers, mostly. It's looking more and more like the Diamondbacks P-thag defying division win in 2007 was more the fluke than the Rockies unlikely run to the World Series that year.

Going further down, the Astros would have to rank as the NL's most disappointing performer relative to their payroll, and then the standings dip into the league fodder category, a place where the Rockies were themselves not long ago (we've switched places with the Padres on the success cycle, it seems).

Hardware:

WS Trophy: Philly

NL Pennants: Colorado, Philly

Division Flags (if the standings hold as they seem to): Philly 3, Chicago and Los Angeles 2 each, Arizona and St. Louis 1 each

Wild Card appearances: Colorado 2, Milwaukee 1

Records for playoff series: Philadelphia 11-6, Colorado 7-4, Los Angeles 4-4, Arizona 3-4, Milwaukee 1-3, Chicago 0-6.

Looking at the individual player trophy winners for 2007 and 2008 also largely reinforces the hierarchy mentioned above.

Thanks largely to that under-performing 2008 squad, we can say that the Rockies so far in this competitive foothill have been a good but not great NL team. With the pennant in 2007, the Rockies really have been a lucky NL team relative to the other teams on their tier unless St. Louis gets a similar NLCS win this season, but Colorado has almost as good a shot at getting another pennant themselves. Chicago, with only the NL Central flags for 2007 and 2008 and an 0-6 record in the playoffs to show for being the second best team in the league in this span have been unlucky, but in a way, so have the Dodgers thus far.

Philadelphia has had the fortune of running through their success cycle while all of their divisional rivals are either rebuilding or being run ineptly. That 28 game gap over the second place team in the NL East is really quite impressive, but it's not so much a credit to Philadelphia's strength as it is an indictment of the weakness of the NL East on the whole.

The National League West has been the only thing standing in the way of a Phillies dynasty in the NL (that's a pretty telling indication of the league's mediocrity given that Philly will only average just over 90 wins/season in that "dynasty"). You could look at the volume of playoff games as an indication of this, 26 for the NL West, 17 for the East (all Philly), 10 for the Central. The long slog through lots of tough pitching in divisional play works as a decent prep for the playoffs for NL West teams. Facing down Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright doesn't seem quite so daunting after having faced Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Ubaldo Jimenez and Dan Haren so frequently.

The Phillies and Rockies are as of this moment slated to face off against each other again in the NLDS in 2009, and there will be some pride on the line. The Rockies could prove themselves king of the upstarts by beating the defending World Champs again, as well as making a statement that they are ready to rise to that next tier, while Philadelphia will want payback for 2007 and to cement a claim as the NL's team of the decade (probably against St. Louis) in the aughts.