SB Nation - Nate Schierholtz

NL West in Review: Right Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:00:18 -0000

The NL West boasted three very strong offensive right-fielders last season. Justin Upton and Brad Hawpe each made All-Star appearances, while Andre Ethier took home a Silver Slugger. What you might not realize is just how close those three were in offensive production last season.

With the fearsome trio eating up at least 580 PA each in right field, they represented the resounding majority of PA for their teams. Brad Hawpe and the Rockies led the way with a park-adjusted .367 wOBA, followed by J-Up and the Snakes at .366, followed by Ethier and the Dodgers at .365.

Naturally, what separates the three teams in overall value then is defense, which proves to be quite the unequalizer.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	5	.294	26	96	.359	.498	.366	4.85
2. Los Angeles	6	.266	34	120	.344	.504	.365	2.56
3. San Francisco	5	.262	8	57	.316	.380	.312	1.76
4. Colorado	6	.270	25	98	.370	.486	.367	1.68
5. San Diego	8	.212	21	76	.280	.366	.298	-0.39

Hawpe was so statistically weak defensively that the Giants actually passed the Rockies on the list, while Will Venable and Randy Winn each passed Hawpe for overall value.

To compare the teams visually (note the blue batting bars for Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles):

For the full player rankings, click here.

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link. For team capsules, take the jump

Arizona

2009 in Review

I think we can officially say that the Diamondbacks' 51-111 2004 campaign was worth it for Arizona fans. The pitiful finish assured Arizona with the top pick in the 2005 draft. Their choice just finished his second season as the primary starter, appearing in the All-Star game at just 21. Of the three predominant offensive RF in the division last year, he was the only one to avoid being a black hole defensively. Indeed, he was quite an asset with the arm and range he displayed. Alex Romero posted a near league average wOBA as Upton's primary backup, while Gerardo Parra hit .400 in 28 PA as a RFer.

Justin Upton

#10 / Right Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 25, 1987

2010 in Preview

Upton's salary was just $412,000 last year, but he also received $1.3million as part of his then-record setting signing bonus. Upton is neither arbitration eligible or a Super Two, so he will make chump change again next season, though his final $2mil installment of his signing bonus will come his way. Obviously, he'll be in right field at Chase Field until finances dictate otherwise.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Despite having the best overall OBP and wOBA in the division, the Rockies fell to fourth in the division due to Brad Hawpe's poor defense. In fact, according to UZR, he cost the Rockies more defensively than any player in the major leagues this season, the second consecutive year he managed that feat (Ryan Braun and Ken Griffey Jr. were worse in 2007). Over the last three years, Hawpe's UZR is 33% worse than any player in MLB. Unbelievably, Carlos Gonzalez actually had a worse UZR/150 in RF than Hawpe, though that's certainly a combination of unfamiliarity and sample size. Hawpe certainly did plenty of damage with the bat overall, earning a spot in the All-Star Game and peaking with a .353 batting average on June 3, the final game before the Rockies reeled off "The Streak."

Brad Hawpe

#11 / Right Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 22, 1979

2010 in Preview

This has been much discussed here. After making $5.75mil last season, Hawpe is due $7.5mil in 2010 in the last year of the 3-year extension he signed after Rocktober07. With Colorado's very notable outfield depth, Hawpe is most valuable as a trade chip. Dan O'Dowd and Jim Tracy continuously act as if trading Hawpe is the last thing on their minds, which of course means nothing. If Hawpe is moved, Carlos Gonzalez will be in right. However, I'm getting a strong feeling the FO will side with loyalty, holding onto a GenR slugger when a cheaper and talented replacement gets pushed to the bench. Sound familiar?

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Andre Ethier made a habit of clubbing clutch (5th in MLB in WPA) home runs and getting big hits that helped Los Angeles push forth to a division title. He was rewarded with a Silver Slugger, making Manny Ramirez the only Dodger OF without the honor in 2009. Notice Ethier did not also earn a Gold Glove with Matt Kemp, and that's certainly no mistake. Though Hawpe was the worst NL OF via UZR, Ethier was second.

Andre Ethier

#16 / Right Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 10, 1982

2010 in Preview

Ethier will be starter, with his salary due to be decided at an arbitration hearing, unless the team can reach an agreement beforehand. Last season, the Dodgers compromised before the hearing and offered a $3.1mil salary. It will be interesting to see how Ned Colletti plays it with the possibly cash-strapped franchise. The club has Ethier, Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell Martin and George Sherrill all eligible for arbitration this offseason. If they choose not to negotiate a compromise, Colletti could save some money if he wins a sufficient number of arbitration cases. Of course, he could get burned and see a player like Kemp or Ethier be awarded a much higher salary.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Brian Giles was supposed to be a reliable veteran for Bud Black in the lineup. However, Giles hit under the Mendoza line, played poor defense and showed little power in 249 PA before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury. Will Venable played superb defense while showing promise with the bat over nearly the same amount of playing time, while Kyle Blanks (a converted first baseman) posted a .400 wOBA in 83 PA.

Will Venable

#25 / Right Field / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 29, 1982

2010 in Preview

Giles was declined arbitration, so he is out of the picture. If the club indeed trades Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley can move to third, with Venable and Blanks taking the corners. If this doesn't happen, it will be either Venable or Blanks in right. My money is on Venable, who can handle the outfield without a problem defensively. However, Bill James projected Blanks for well over a 100 more PA. Both are under complete team control

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants continue to have sneaky good showing due to defense. Randy Winn's best days offensively are clearly behind him, but he still posted the best UZR in the division, good enough to place him third in the player rankings. I would also like to point out his veterany thriftiness on the bases, successfully stealing in 14 of his 16 attempts.

Randy Winn

#2 / Left Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 09, 1974

2010 in Preview

San Francisco declined arbitration on Winn, effectively opening up a free-for-all for AB's in right field. Nate Schierholtz has the strongest claim, as his superior defense and potentially solid bat make him an intriguing option. Bill James optimistically projects a .338 wOBA from him in 2010. Brian Sabean really ought to be looking elsewhere for an upgrade or at least insurance, because that .338 is probably a bit optimistic. John Bowker, Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres are other underwhelming internal options.

The Giants and Minor League Evaluation

Grant — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:57:18 -0000

Not much time for a ton of writing today, so I'll just ask your help for possible posts down the road. I'm trying to make a list of examples of the Giants ignoring minor league performance in their hitter evaluation process in the Brian Sabean era.

Rich Aurilia -- Fine numbers for a AAA shortstop, blocked by Jose Vizcaino because he was the "get one free" part of the Jeff Kent trade.
Todd Linden -- Stellar numbers in AAA, never given a chance (note: this is a list of examples for better or for worse. It was almost assuredly a good thing that Linden didn't get a chance as a starter.)
Dan Ortmeier -- Very little power, contact, or on-base skills in the minors, fluked his way into a .497 slugging percentage in 157 major league at-bats, taken seriously as a candidate for a starting 1B job in the majors
Kevin Frandsen -- Career .317/.380/.452 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .241/.306/.342 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so this might be more of a Linden situation rather than a crime against player evaluation.
Nate Schierholtz -- Career .308/.355/.516 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .287/.318/.408 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so...hey, that reads familiar.
Brian Bocock -- A year after hitting .220 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day shortstop. Seriously.
Emmanuel Burriss -- Two years after hitting .165 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day second baseman. Seriously.
John Bowker -- Hit .342/.451/.596 with a reworked approach in AAA. The player standing in the way of a starting job in the majors hasn't hit a home run since April.
Buster Posey -- Isn't likely to have an on-base percentage below .300, which makes him a special offensive catcher in this organization's history. Needs to prove his worth to get a single start; won't get a single start until he proves his worth.
Eugenio Velez -- Nothing in his minor league career, other than a fine age-24 season in low-A, suggests he'll be more than a fine bench player. Because he had a ridiculously hot 80 at-bats when he was called up, though, he's a starting outfielder. And he's done just fine, mind you. But he also starts against left-handers, against whom he's hit .241/.288/.353 over his minor league career and .212/.287/.260 in his major league career.

No thesis, really. I'm just trying to figure out why the Giants completely ignore minor league statistics when they evaluate hitters. Actually, I guess I'm trying to figure out if they ignore minor league stats, and if that's even helped the team on a few occassions. Please help me fill in any gaps or omissions. Also let me know if I'm cherry-picking and/or making too much out of nothing. Also, feel free to ignore baseball entirely and talk about lunch, as that's what you're going to do anyways.

Giants must see history repeated

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

The playoffs will soon be out of reach

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San Francisco sees this series as a great opportunity, though really it is their last legitimate opportunity to pull back into the race. They will need to replicate the sweep they pulled off to close August to even pull within 1.5 games, and that won't be so easy. They are just 5-7 since that sweep, 2-7 in games not started by Brad Penny, whose rotation slot does not come up for the series.

Here's the scenario. After this series is over, the Giants will have 16 games left. If the Rockies sweep, the ensuing 7.5 game deficit effectively eliminates the Giants, but you probably already thought that. If the Rockies win the series, a 5.5 game deficit would be practically insurmountable. For reference, the Rockies surreal once-in-a-lifetime Rocktober run had them 4.5 games out with 16 back.

So if the Giants don't win this series, the Rockies are in the playoffs. Even if the Giants win the series though, they won't sweep again, though they need to. Given the Rockies have 9 of 15 games remaining at home after the series, catching the Rockies from a 3.5 game deficit would be extremely difficult as is. I would go as far as guaranteeing the playoffs at that point barring injuries. I just can't see lightning (a sweep) striking twice, even though they are tossing out the same Lincecum/Zito/Cain trio that debuted as a series triumverate with that sweep against the Rockies at the end of August.

The Giants see this as an opportunity, but really, the opportunity belongs to Colorado. If the Giants can't capilatize on their head-to-head battles with a sweep, the Rockies will have buried the Giants to the point of non-Rocktober-caliber elimination. Sweep or die.

San Francisco Giants (77-66, W1, 3rd, 4.5 GB WC, 7.5 GB Div)

Monday-Wednesday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

Bruce Bochy has atrociously constructed his lineup all season, and he hasn't learned. Sure, he has practically nothing to work with, but that's not enough of an excuse. I suppose perfect lineup construction wouldn't help them with how poor their bats are though. If you need a refresher course, check here or here or here. Sure adding Freddy Sanchez will help some, but he's not really a significant threat (his wOBA this year is worse than what Eric Young Jr has done so far, but with the Giants, it has been worse than Garrett Atkins' level). Here's the grossness:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - LF	.270	4	20	.319	.417	.321
Freddy Sanchez - 2B	.293	7	39	.328	.425	.326
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.322	21	77	.377	.541	.384
Bengie Molina - C	.260	17	70	.279	.430	.300
Ryan Garko - 1B	.270	13	51	.343	.432	.340
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.275	5	29	.308	.415	.307
Aaron Rowand - CF	.269	14	57	.326	.438	.333
Edgar Renteria - SS	.252	5	48	.309	.331	.284

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), two about average hitters (Rowand and Sanchez), two below average hitters (Schierholtz and Velez), one on the cusp of terrible (Molina) and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Bochy's glut of reserve infielders include Juan Uribe (.279, 12, 40), Travis Ishikawa (.254, 9, 35), Ryan Rohlinger (1-for-10), Jesus Guzman (2-for-16), Rich Aurilia (.225, 2, 15) and Kevin Frandsen (.146, 0, 1). Fred Lewis (.266, 4, 16), John Bowker (.205, 1, 5), Andres Torres (.250, 3, 16), and Randy Winn (.263, 2, 48) have gotten starts in the outfield as well. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.212, 1, 8) is Molina's backup catcher, while Buster Posey (0-1, K) has been called up to effectively wash Whiteside's jock.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The first time Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain pitched in the same series, they swept the Rockies at AT&T Park. Now they will try to do it again. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito is having a strong season, helped mostly by the Rockies. The Giants rank in the top three in just about every pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park, and their bullpen is very solid at the back end. As we have seen though, should a starter get chased early, or if a game goes extra innings, that bullpen is vulnerable.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	62	0	0	0	34	6	67.0	57	25	20	2	25	72	2.69	1.22

Brian Wilson, who I hear is dumb, has seven straight scoreless appearances (hey! - that's how many Heath Bell had coming into the weekend!). After Wilson, there's lefties Jeremy Affeldt, Dan Runzler and Madison Bumgarner to go with righties Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller, Waldis Joaquin, Joe Martinez and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants' UZR/150 has dropped three entire spots in the last two weeks, yet they still come in at MLB's 5th best, which slots them 3rd most valuable according to Fangraphs. Playing Velez at second is partly to blame for the fall, though Sanchez should be starting at least two of the games in the series there.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T squelches home runs, given there really is no "power alley." However, the spacious outfield has plenty of room for hits, and the park factor reflects it, coming in solidly on the offensive side at 103/104.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	29	26	1	0	0	0	150.1	177	81	72	12	38	107	4.31	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	13-5	29	28	4	2	0	0	200.1	150	59	52	9	55	233	2.34	1.02

Hammel has been the ultimate secret weapon for the Rockies at the back end of the rotation. Despite his opponents reading like an All-Star team (Cain x 2, Santana, Moyer, Randy Wells, Josh Johnson, Kershaw, Haren, Arroyo) in his last ten starts, the Rockies have won six of them. That's incredible for a fifth starter. We have a new dragon slayer, and he has the 11th best WAR in the NL, no kidding. He has strung together 8 straight starts of 3 ER or less. Dan O'Dowd earned his Christmas bonus. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the National League, but he is coming off of back spasms. On top of that, he only has one win in his last six starts, though that's not obviously his fault. You can't bet against Lincecum at home (8-1, 1.83 ERA), though Hammel has the ability to keep things interesting. I find it fitting that to slay the Giants, the Rockies begin with a David vs. Goliath matchup. Favors: GIANTS moderately

Tuesday, September 15, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 13-10 29 29 1 0 0 0 195.1 164 74 72 12 73 167 3.32 1.21

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Barry Zito 9-12 30 29 1 0 0 0 171.1 159 78 76 18 70 132 3.99 1.34

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-10	29	29	1	0	0	0	195.1	164	74	72	12	73	167	3.32	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	9-12	30	29	1	0	0	0	171.1	159	78	76	18	70	132	3.99	1.34

Ubaldo Jimenez returns to the rotation after getting a couple days off with a hamstring injury he sustained scoring a run. The injury bothered him a bit, as he surrendered three runs the following inning and lasted just six innings. He had gone 7 starts without allowing more than 2 ER and 8 starts of going more than 6.0 IP. Jimenez has lost just one of his 11 starts since the All-Star Break, and the Rockies are 9-2 in those starts. Zito struggled in his last two starts against two fairly unfrightening offenses (San Diego and Milwaukee) but, like Jimenez, Zito has not allowed more than 3 ER in a post-ASB start. He has feasted on Rockies hitters, since his strike-throwing loopy curve style goes against the Rockies strengths of patience and crushing fastballs. Zito is 1-0 with an anemic 0.42 ERA against the Rockies this year in three starts covering 21.1 IP. Favors: ROCKIES moderately.

Wednesday, September 16, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 14-9 29 28 0 0 0 0 166.2 159 86 81 20 75 170 4.37 1.40

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Matt Cain 13-5 29 29 4 0 0 0 196.1 162 60 57 20 68 151 2.61 1.17

Jorge de la Rosa has allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, part of an 11 of 15 string in which he has permitted two or less. As a starter, de la Rosa actually has a Runs Above Average of 30.8, a tick better than Matt Cain's 30.4, for what it's worth. I'll never get tired of noting this as long as it still rings true. The Rockies have lost just 2 of the last 16 games in which DLR has pitched. He has won both starts vs the Giants this season, though he was terrible in one of them. Matt Cain has won just one of his last 9 starts, though the Giants won five of those. He's still second in MLB in ERA/FIP disparity. He is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA vs Colorado in 4 starts this year and has very even home/road splits. The game has earned the late night national broadcast on ESPN. Favors: DRAW.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	14-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	166.2	159	86	81	20	75	170	4.37	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	13-5	29	29	4	0	0	0	196.1	162	60	57	20	68	151	2.61	1.17

My take

The Rockies will all but eliminate the Giants by winning at least one game. Winning the series is certainly possible though.

Brian Wilson has tossed seven straight scoreless outings, though only one featured no baserunners. Juan Uribe will start at least one game, maybe two, given his 5 September HR, hitting .349 for the month. Sergio Romo hasn't allowed even one hit his last five appearances.

Pablo Sandoval is hitting just .220 with zero dingers this month. Perhaps he returned from injury prematurely? Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria are both hitting under the Mendoza line this month. Merkin Valdez had that debacle against Ryan Spilborghs at Coors Field, but he was even worse Friday, allowing four runs without getting an out against Los Angeles.

Oddly, the Giants have no players on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Emmanuel Burriss (foot- 9/1) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Tim Lincecum missed his last start with back spasms but is expected to take the mound tonight, though he is still listed as "probable." Randy Johnson has seen no setbacks of yet in his attempt to return to action with the Giants in their bullpen after a trapezius injury in early July.

Poll

Will the Giants be vanquished?

Completely. Beating Lincecum will completely deflate the Giants, initiating their ensuing roll-over.

26 votes

Yes. The Rockies will win this series, placing the Giants further out than the Rockies were in 2007 at the same point.

59 votes

Almost. The Rox win one game, keeping the Gigantes on their death bed, but someone else will have to put the nail in the coffin.

91 votes

Nope. Lightning strikes twice, and the Giants are less than two games back. Hold on to your hats.

63 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed

A Pretty Penny

Brendan Scolari — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:50:25 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Brad Penny reacts after Los Angeles Dodgers' Rafael Belliard grounded out to first base to end the top of the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. Penny pitched seven strong innings against his former team and the Giants won 7-2. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Brad Penny stymied the Dodgers on Sunday, pitching 7 innings and allowing only 2 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts en route to a Giants 7-2 win.

Chad Billingsley had a 6/0 K/BB ratio but got knocked around and only lasted 4 innings, allowing 8 hits and 3 runs. BIllingsley gave up doubles to Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa and a two run homerun to Juan Uribe.

Jeff Weaver relieved Billingsley and was awful, allowing 4 runs in 1.1 innings. Weaver allowed 5 hits and had a walk and 2 strikeouts. The rest of the bullpen didn't give up any earned runs, but Ronald Belisario relieved Weaver with the bases loaded and let all three runs score. But Scott Elbert, Ramon Troncoso, and Charlie Haeger combined to pitch 2.1 innings and recorded 4 strikeouts without allowing a baserunner.

The offense was unable to score in every inning except the 7th, when Russell Martin hit a two run homerun off of Penny. The homer was Martin's sixth of the season. Other than that the Dodgers only scattered four singles and were 0-5 with RISP. James Loney (who walked twice) was the only Dodger to reach base safely more than once in the game. Neither Manny Ramirez nor Orlando Hudson started the game, but Hudson did pinch hit.

Billingsley is now 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA in his last five starts and his ERA is up to a season high 3.99. Billingsley seems as puzzled by his struggles as everyone else:

I don't even know how to explain it. It's frustrating... I don't think it's necessarily mechanical. I have to keep the ball down in the zone. I'm trying to figure something out and get this thing turned around. My cutter got hit today. It was spinning out of my hand and not moving much. That's what they were hitting.

It's not like I'm trying to throw every pitch belt-high. Maybe it's release point. You can look at video all you want, I know what I'm doing. Trying to correct it, sometimes it doesn't happen. I'm trying to get the rhythm back.

When you're not playing well, yeah, it's getting to you. It's frustrating. I'm battling and going out there and hoping that today is the day to turn this thing around. When I'm out on the mound, I want to get after it. I'm not going out there with doubts.

Physically, I'm fine. Mentally, I'm fine. It's frustrating. I'm feeling good out there. Some little things are throwing you off. It's frustrating.

Here's the win probability chart for the game. It was all Giants:

via www.fangraphs.com

The Dodgers still took the series from the Giants in San Francisco, and tommorow begin a three game set at Dodger Stadium against the Pirates at 7:10 PM. Jon Garland (9-11, 4.23) will be taking on Daniel McCutchen (0-1, 4.85). The Dodgers are 3 games ahead of the Rockies and 7.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West. They are also 1 game ahead of the Cardinals for the best record in the NL.

WP - Brad Penny (10-8): 7 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts

LP - Chad Billingsley (12-10): 4 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts

Kuroda Dazzles in Rout of the Giants

Brendan Scolari — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 07:42:48 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Casey Blake, right, is greeted at the plate by James Loney after Blake's two-run home run off San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain during the sixth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Friday, Sept. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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The Dodgers beat the Giants 10-3 on Friday in a true team effort. Hiroki Kuroda got the win, pitching 8 innings of 3 hit ball, while allowing 2 runs on 0 walks and 5 strikeouts. Kuroda only threw 86 pitches in the outing, and retired 19 consecutive batters strecthing from the second inning to the eighth inning.

Kuroda gave up his first run in the second inning, allowing a single by Bengie Molina and a double by Juan Uribe. Molina scored on a groundout by Nate Schierholtz that started his conseective out run. The only other run he allowed was in the eighth inning when John Bowker tripled on a fly ball to "Triples Alley" and then scored on a Ryan Rohlinger groundout. Kuroda came out after the eigth inning and was replaced by Ramon Troncoso, who allowed one run before finishing the game. After the game Kuroda said:

"I would like to finish as strong as I did last year. We're in first place and Colorado is really close, and my thought is to pitch my game and contribute to the team so we can win a championship and the World Series. I've gone through a lot, the DL twice, I got hit in the head for the first time in 13 years of professional baseball. I'd like to finish really strong."

But it definitely wasn't all Kuroda, the offense was clicking as well. The Dodgers scored the first two runs of the game in the first inning when James Loney cashed in two Dodger singles on a double to right center. But no more runs came across until the sixth inning, when Casey Blake (in his first game back after sitting out the previous five) smacked a two-run homerun to left field, putting the Dodgers up 4-1. The game was broken open in the seventh when the Dodgers tacked on five more runs. Four straight batters reached base to start the inning, and following a sacrifice fly by Loney, a single by Blake, and a double by Russell Martin the Dodgers were up 9-1. The offense capped it off with another run in the eigth inning when Matt Kemp hit a double to score Juan Pierre and give th Dodgers 10 runs on the night.

On offense six of the eight starting position players reached base muliple times, with only Rafael Furcal and Ronnie Belliard reaching once. Ethier, Kemp, and Blake all scored twice and Blake and Loney each had three RBI's.

Here's the win probability chart for the game:

via www.fangraphs.com

The win kept the Dodgers 2 games ahead of the surging Rockies (currently on an eight game winning streak) and left the Giants 7.5 games back in the NL West. The Dodgers are currently tied with the Cardinals for the best record in the National League and 2.5 games ahead of the Phillies. Tommorow Vicente Padilla (10-6, 4.63) takes on Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03) at 6:05 PM.

WP - Hiroki Kuroda (6-6): 8 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts

LP - Matt Cain (13-5): 6 IP, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts

Role reversal: after stumbling in the divisional chase, Rockies must fend off Giants' pursuit

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:15:57 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Let's leave em speechless. Again

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The Giants could be in first place in the NL Wild Card Sunday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Colorado, but that's still borderline incomprehensible after last weekend.

While the Rockies were fumbling their chance to legitimize the divisional race, San Francisco gained a game on the Colorado by eeking out two one-run wins and getting blasted in one game against the Diamondbacks. With the Rockies on the home docket so soon after three very frustrating losses, the Giants surely have retribution freshly in their minds.

Luckily for them, they have their top three pitchers going in the series. Then consider that the Rockies' two hottest hitters this month - Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez - will both miss some if not all of the series with injuries. That means the demoralization Colorado dealt the Giants last weekend is in danger of being completely wiped out with a possible sweep at AT&T Park this weekend, where the Giants' 41-21 mark is just a half game being Tampa Bay and Boston for the best home field advantage in MLB.

Fortunately, it's not all bad. San Francisco's hottest hitters of late - and their 3 and 4 hitters - were both relegated to pinch-hit duty for the entirety of the Arizona series, and their status will likely be the same for at least tonight's game. In addition, Freddy Sanchez was officially placed on the 15-day Tuesday after spending a week inactive on the bench, leaving the Giants' horrible offense without three of its top weapons.

The Rockies counter Bruce Bochy's Linceum/Zito/Cain triumverate with Ubaldo Jimenez, who Jayson Stark says has "the best stuff in baseball," the ultimate WINNAR Jason Marquis, who Tim Kurkjian gave some love to this morning, and the Road Warrior Jason Hammel.

Should be a competitive series.

Rather than putting virtually the same scouting information in KYF as last Friday, I'll refer you to last week's preview for any seemingly incomplete grading rationalization.

If you care to engage with Giants fans, enjoy: McCovey Chronicles. Here is their series preview.

San Francisco Giants (69-59, L1, 3rd, 3 GB WC, 7 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

The lineup will feature Juan Uribe and Eli Whiteside tonight most likely, but since both Molina and Sandoval are expected back Saturday, I'll leave them in the lineup. Nothing has really changed from last Friday - they still have the 2nd worst wOBA in the league at .304, better than Cincy by the slimmest of margins. I had not noticed this post before and it is now two weeks old, but most of the points hold true. A fanpost at MCC shows the Giants are by far and away the most undisciplined offensive team as well as one of the worst. Given their injury losses for tonight's game, the official loss of Sanchez and the move to AT&T, I downgraded their offense to an F.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - 2B	.276	3	16	.308	.402	.313
Randy Winn - LF	.268	2	46	.320	.369	.306
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.331	19	73	.380	.553	.390
Bengie Molina - C	.263	16	67	.283	.439	.305
Ryan Garko - 1B	.271	13	51	.344	.436	.342
Aaron Rowand - CF	.275	12	53	.329	.441	.335
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.278	5	26	.311	.422	.312
Edgar Renteria - SS	.261	3	42	.318	.330	.288

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), one slightly above average hitters (Rowand), two about average hitters (Winn, Schierholtz, Velez and Molina), and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Juan Uribe (.267, 8, 31) is the utility infielder and Travis Ishikawa (.262, 9, 35) is back on the roster to spell Garko. IF Ryan Rohlinger (0-for-5) is now on the bench with Sanchez on the shelf. Fred Lewis (.268, 4, 16) is the lone backup OF though Velez can slide to LF if necessary. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.229, 1, 7) is Molina's backup catcher. As for tonight, Winn will likely be in the 3-hole, while Garko, Schierholtz and Ishikawa have each had their try at the cleanup spot.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

It would be difficult to find a trio of pitchers a team would least like to face right now. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito continued his recent resurgence against Colorado Monday. The Giants rank in the top three in just about ever pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	55	0	0	0	30	6	60.0	50	25	20	2	24	67	3.00	1.23

The bullpen composition hasn't changed . After Wilson,there's Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants have MLB 2nd best UZR/150 helping Fangraphs to rate San Francisco's defense as #2 in MLB. Putting Velez in at 2B is a downgrade from their season average though.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T being a pitcher's park is one of MLB's greater myths. It has a multi-year park factor of 102, while this year it is 103/104. For comparison, Coors Field is 105/106. So AT&T is roughly halfway as advantageous for hitters as Coors. The myth has some legs though. It completely drowns home runs (factor of 86.1 for HR/FB), though it inflates triples by an even larger margin. The park has also been advantageous for singles and doubles.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	12-9	26	26	1	0	0	0	174.1	146	67	65	9	66	154	3.36	1.22

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	12-4	27	26	4	2	0	0	185.1	142	57	50	8	51	214	2.43	1.04

Dueling aces part deux. As amoeba recently pointed out, Jimenez has obliterated the franchise record for consecutive 6+ inning starts. You know all the awesomeness that is Timmy, but the Giants are just 3-6 in his starts vs the Rockies in his career, 1-2 at AT&T Park. He also has a seasonlong four game winless streak. Okay, it's mostly not his fault, but it's still true. The Giants are -130 favorites in Vegas. I'll just let the two young arms do the rest of the talking. Favors: GIANTS by the slimmest of margins, slimmer than Timmy's frame

Saturday, August 29, 7:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-8	28	25	2	1	0	0	171.1	163	72	66	11	54	84	3.47	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	8-11	27	26	1	0	0	0	154.0	142	72	70	16	62	118	4.09	1.32

Jason Marquis is moving up amoeba's list as well, as he has 10 straight 6+ IP starts, all quality starts. He pitched a complete game in San Fran earlier this season and allowed just 1 run in two of the three starts vs the Giants. Zito is on a 12 IP scoreless streak and has only allowed more than 2 runs once in his last eight starts, and he only allowed three that time. That has helped him push his ERA in danger of dipping below the 4 mark. If the Rockies have hopes of winning this series, this is the game they must win, but it's no clear advantage for Colorado. Favors: ROCKIES slightly.

Sunday, August 30, 2:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	26	23	1	0	0	0	132.0	165	73	65	12	33	91	4.43	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	12-4	26	26	4	0	0	0	177.1	143	50	47	17	61	133	2.39	1.15

Hammel started the only game the Rockies took from the Dodgers, is 3-1 in August and just put together two starts reaching through the 7th inning for just the 2nd time this season. He has permitted just 3 ER in 12 IP vs the Giants this season and has a 2.88 road ERA still. Hammel has allowed 3 or less runs in all five August starts and 7 of 8 overall. That is quite good for a fifth starter, but he draws Matt Cain yet again. Cain is 0-2 in August and is winless in six starts, though he allowed one run each in his last two starts. Here's a scary stat for you: Cain has allowed 1 ER or less in 17 of 26 starts this year. Favors: GIANTS strongly.

My take

The Giants are hurt but didn't fall apart after a heartbreaking series at Coors. The Giants have a glimmer of hope with a strong showing this weekend, but if the Rockies manage to win the series, it would not only push the lead further but would also result in the likely implosion of McCovey Chronicles, if not the Giants' psyche. To do this, Colorado absolutely must win Saturday and hope to steal one from Cain or Lincecum with help of their injured bats. I suspect the Rockies will manage only one win, which would pull the Giants back to within two games - right where we were before last weekend's series at Coors.

Bengie Molina is 6 of his last 18 and Pablo Sandoval is 5 for his last 14, while both have a homer, two doubles and two walks on that streak. Of course, both are out of the lineup tonight.

Nate Schierholtz' HR off Jorge de la Rosa Saturday represents his only hit in his past 24 ABs. Juan Uribe has just one single in his last 20 ABs, but he has 2 HR too. Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa are both only 4 for their last 17.

Freddy Sanchez was finally put on the 15-day DL Tuesday after a week of inactivity. Andres Torres (hamstring - 7/31) and Rich Aurilia (ankle - 8/12) join him on the 15-day DL. Aurilia is apparently ready to play, but the Giants have yet to activate him. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Randy Johnson (trapezius - 7/6) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Bengie Molina (tight quad) and Pablo Sandoval (tight calf, flu) are questionable for tonight's game and likely won't start but are available to come into the game if it needed.

Poll

By dinnertime Sunday, I will be feeling:

Elated: Sweeping the Giants on the road against those pitchers is an even bigger blow to their playoff chances than the resulting 6 game lead.

16 votes

Very happy: That was a tough series win and it showed who the better team is.

75 votes

Uneasy, but understanding: I couldn't have expected to win this series, but that two game lead is more tenuous than I'd like.

65 votes

Terrified: The offense isn't clicking, we've lost five in a row, and the Giants have caught us. Maybe the choke's on us.

21 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

Rockies 14, Giants 11: Offense explodes in roller coaster win

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 03:40:15 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ian Stewart ties the game with a big fly.

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The Rockies overcame their biggest deficit of the season to win tonight, but you wouldn't suspect it by the final score. That's what outscoring your opponent 13-3 over the last 36 outs will do.

Dexter Fowler gave Colorado a lead by tripling and scoring on a Todd Helton single in the first. An early lead usually bodes well for the Rockies. They lead the majors in win percentage when scoring first. However, it looked early like the Rockies might lose in spite of scoring first for consecutive nights.

Jorge de la Rosa gave up 6 runs in the first four innings, including home runs to Nate Schierholtz and Ryan Garko as well as Joe Martinez' first two career hits. Until Saturday night, the Rockies had not overcome a deficit of greater than four runs, and they seemed to be having trouble with Giants' starter Joe Martinez.

FINAL - 8.22.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
San Francisco Giants	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	3	2	11	12	1
Colorado Rockies	1	0	0	2	0	7	4	0	X	14	15	1
WP: Jorge De La Rosa (12 - 8) LP: Justin Miller (2 - 2)

COMPLETE COVERAGE >

But man, is it ever good to have Troy Tulowitzki after he had the flu for, what, it was only one day? They say as Tulo goes, so do the Rockies, and it seemed so in this one. Looking at a five run deficit with just two hits in the first three innings, Troy Tulowitzki laced a leadoff single in the fourth. The Rockies went on to score twice. Looking at a three run deficit, Troy Tulowitzki laced a leadoff single in the sixth. The Rockies then scored seven times. Coincidence? Maybe. But I saw an offense than needed a jump start and Tulo sparked both big innings.

The 7-run 6th inning turned the game around. The Rockies went from having a 15% chance of winning to 90% in that frame alone, and Colorado even gave an out away in the inning be getting in an ill-advised rundown.

In the inning, Tulo singled, Brad Hawpe singled and Ian Stewart hit his 19th home run to tie it. Yorvit Torrealba singled, Seth Smith hit a walk-off triple, Carlos Gonzalez singled, Dexter Fowler tripled, and Todd Helton hit his 12th home run.

The offensive onslaught continued in the seventh inning, when the Rockies batted around for the second straight inning, highlighted by four walks and two singles. The comeback occurred just in time to not only get Jorge de la Rosa (12-8, 4.76) off the hook, but the Rockies also gifted him his 12th win and 10th in 11 starts. The lefty had a devil's line, allowing six runs on six hits in six innings.

Box Score

69 - 54

NL West: 4.5 GB

WC: 2 Gm Lead

Streak: Won 1

Pyth W-L: 70-53

2008: 54-69

2007: 63-60

Notes

The 14 runs were the most the Rockies have scored all season. The last time they reached 14 was September 25, 2008 against the Giants at AT&T Park.
Colorado has outscored opponents 95-40 in the sixth inning on the season.
Todd Helton hit his first home run in exactly a month. His last bomb was July 22 against Scott Schoeneweis of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Ian Stewart's home run was his first in 20 days - his last was August 2 in Cincinnati off Bronson Arroyo.
Ryan Garko hit his first and second home run of the year with the Giants.
The Rockies batted around in both the 6th and 7th innings.
Clint Barmes leads NL second basemen in extra base hits (hat tip to befizzle). Yes, more than Chase Utley. He didn't have an XBH in the game, however, he did steal two bases. His 11 on the season are 5th among NL second-sackers.
Matt Daley gave up back to back home runs to Ryan Garko and Aaron Rowand. He has now allowed 5 runs in his last 1.2 IP after throwing 13.2 straight scoreless innings.
Justin Miller and Merkin Valdez combined to allow 8 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks while only getting 4 outs.
Dexter Fowler extended his streak of reaching base to seven plate appearances with a walk and triple. He then popped out on a bunt, then tripled and walked again. He has now reached base in 8 of 9 PA's.
Every spot in the Rockies' order had at least one hit, and only spots #1 (Gonzalez), #3 (Helton, who had a HR), and #8 (Torrealba, 2 R, BB) failed to get at least two. Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs each had RBI pinch hits from the 9-hole.
The Rockies won despite giving up 5 home runs. I don't have a clue the last time that happened.
Matt Herges made his first appearance as a Rockie this year, allowing two runs on a Pablo Sandoval home run. Huston Street came on to close the game but was not credited with the save.
Los Angeles won behind rookie knuckelballer Charlie Haeger, meaning the Rockies remain 4.5 games behind the Dodgers.

Join after the jump for the fangraph and the row call.

Comment of the Night

You're kidding me.

by befizzle on Aug 22, 2009 8:06 PM MDT

WPA Heroes:
Ian Stewart (.241) - 2-for-4, HR, R, 4 RBI
Seth Smith (.210) - 1-for-1, PH 3B, R, RBI
Brad Hawpe (.169) - 2-for-4, 2B, 2 R, K
Dexter Fowler (.153) - 2-for-3, 2 3B, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Troy Tulowitzki (.066) - 2-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB

WPA Zeroes:
Jorge de la Rosa (-.358) - 6.0 IP, 6 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR. 0-for-2
Carlos Gonzalez (-.053) - 1-for-3, 2 R, 2 BB, K

Row Call

prettyinpurple, Shoemaker, Poseidon's Fist, butterfly, WolfMarauder, Redhawk, realmenwearpurple, dogs, RockyMtnCat, Rox Girl, jponry, Tom (RFTN), TuLoRocks2008, Rawktober, Oakland F's, El Paso Jeff, amoeba, fantasyfencing, SDcat09, Wetwilly, Junction Rox, TGumb, coolopotamous, rockiesplayinalittleleagueballpark, jrockies (most), smokinRox, Teekalong, squalene203, GoRockies!!, BroJB, Charlie77, Kumar_98, Chrysicat, pedalpusher, ddavis539, befizzle, Maris6161, BeefySwats, theshiva, ejskater, OrangeTorpedo, RockiesMagicNumber, Russ, free7694, Curt in Florida, MissR, jcn7vc, Yokel

48 Rowbots, 1002 comments

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Francisco Giants

devil_fingers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Who would have thought that a team with a .264/.278/.439 cleanup hitter could wind up scoring so few runs?

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The eight of you who are familiar with this series will remember that "Lousy" in the title does not necessarily refer to the lineup, but perhaps to the optimization procedure, or, as the "Optimizer" (me). The Giants have made some additions down the stretch (Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez) as they push for a wildcard spot. No, Garko and Sanchez aren't exactly mashers, and those trades were not exactly universally acclaimed. However, it is also true that in the short term they are better hitters than Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss. But does the lineup still qualify as lousy? Since I agree with those who say we should look forward by checking out a player's "true talent" estimate (using past performance, age adjustment, environment, etc) rather than the past -- maybe not. And when I look at the ZipS RoS projections for the starters for the Giants, their average wOBA is about league-average.

That being said, as of this writing the Giants have the second least-productive offense in baseball at 96.8 park-adjusted Batting Runs below average. The SBNation Giants site, McCovey Chronicles, has "In play: Out(s)" as its (awesome) subtitle. And let's face it: I wanted to write about a team that actually is playing meaningful games at this point. Sure, over a full season, an optimized lineup will only probably only gain a team between 5 and 15 runs, so over these last six weeks, even 4 runs would be a miracle. But, hey, teams spend a lot of resources on trades that accomplish a lot less than that. Why not do something that will help you team win that won't cost you anything more?

But this all pales in comparison to the biggest justification for this column: any team using Bengie Molina as their everyday cleanup hitter definitely could be getting more out of their batting order.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

This is the fourth in an occasional series have been writing batting orders of particular teams. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this things for myself.

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists). Yes, there is a lot of stuff here... Feel free to skim or skip this stuff and browse down to the "Getting to the Point" section, although if you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section.

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: For each posts raw batting stats, I'll either use projections from one or more of the more popular projection systems (CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, or maybe even in-season Marcels), or if it's a "reader request" and the requester wants to submit his or her own numbers, that's fine, too. This far into the year, the beginning of the season projections are still pretty good, but some players are peforming differently enough (or are getting more PAs than expected) that our projections change. For wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG stats for this column on the Giants, I'll be using the handy ZiPS In-Season projections ("RoS") as listed at FanGraphs on Sunday August the 16th. For steals, I'm generating the runs above average per ~150 games from ZiPS preseason projections for reasons we can get into in the comments if you really want to...
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats projected as of August 16, 2009 for the Giants from the ZiPS RoS projections at FanGraphs with some other stuff. I had a hard time figuring out who the Giants were going to start in left field. I originally did the lineups with Fred Lewis in LF (he's a really good baserunner, by the way), but a commentator in another thread said Nate Schierholtz was probably going to be getting most of the starts, so I subbed him in (his projection is also better than Lewis's). I hope I didn't screw too much stuff up. Below is something like a recent Giant batting order according to baseball-reference.com, except with Nate Schierholtz hitting in the #1 place instead of Velez.

2009 pseudo-Giants Batting Order 2009 ZiPS In=Season Projections + Some Other Stuff
Player	Pos.		wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	.341	.300	.328	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	.324	.291	.335	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	.309	.277	.299	.416	..139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Ryan Garko	1B	R	.336	.270	.345	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Randy Winn	RF	S	.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	.332	.275	.335	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	.305	.269	.323	.359	.090	0.1	-0.5	-1.7
Pitcher

What's that? You actually want to see an optimized batting order?

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. RHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.327	.275	.329	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.350	.300	.338	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.331	.270	.339	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.319	.291	.329	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.304	.277	.294	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.300	0.269	0.317	0.359	0.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: Whatever other problems one might have putting together a batting order for the Giants, having too many good left-handed hitters isn't one of them. Seriously, in some lineups, all the best hitters are lefties, so it makes it impossible to get them in the 1, 2, and 4 spots. Anyway, after adjusting for average platoon splits, the three best Giants hitters (projected) vs. RHP are Sandoval, Schierholtz, and Garko, followed by Rowand and Winn in a tie. The first inclination, given the various wOBA, OBP, ISO, and baserunning numbers, was to put Schierholtz #1, Garko #2, Sandoval #4, and then have Rowand hit #3 (he has a higher ISO than Randy Winn, and the #3 hitter sees the most 2-out PAs, so more HR power is important in that spot), and put Winn, the closest thing this lineup has to a basetealer, #5. However, If you look at Rowand's numbers, he's absolutely dreadful when it comes to grounding into the double play, and the #3 spot sees the most GDP opportunities, by far. By putting him in the #1 spot, we avoid that (particularly with OBP wizards like Molina and Renteria at the bottom of the order), and both Garko and Schierholtz have been better than average at avoiding it. That probably saves as many or more runs than any other single betting order move. The #2 and #4 hitters are to be of the same quality, and maybe Scheirholtz would have just as much power as Sandoval if we adjusted those numbers for platoon splits. Plus, Schierhotlz isn't exactly projected to be a walks machine. But I finaly decided that Sandoval is just a bit of a surer bet for power and "moving guys over," but I can see it either way. And, yes, either guy (or any number of Giants) would be an upgrade of Bengie Freaking Molina hitting cleanip. You could also make the argument for switching Garko and Schierholtz, given how well Nate avoids the GDP. It's all pretty close. Finally , having Winn hit #5 allows his decent base stealing to be leveraged in front of the terrible hitters behind him so he can get into scoring position for the occasional Sanchez single vs. RHP.

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. LHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.348	.275	.355	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.352	.270	.363	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.340	.291	.353	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.324	.277	.315	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.323	.300	.312	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.320	.269	.340	.359	.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: If nothing else, these guys should smash LHP. And I was also easily able to slot the guys with the three best wOBA vs. LHP in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. That is so rare and exciting that I'll leave it to you to decide whether switching Sanchez and Garko in order to better utilize Garko's better HR power (although not ISO in general, oddly), ability to avoid the DP, and Sanchez's baserunning better. Rowand again stays at leadoff, since GDP ability doesn't Platoon." And ##6-9 easily go in descending order of wOBA. I do go against The Book by having a better hitter at the #3 spot than the #5 spot, but Winn's speed is a bit wasted in front of Sandoval, and his despite Renteria and Molina being almost league average against LHP, I'm going to guess they'll still need his help to get into him into scoring position. Keep in mind that not everyone agrees with having the pitcher hit #8, but it works either way.

Final Thoughts:

I don't know if anyone reads these, or if those who do actually enjoy them, but I like putting them together (although it takes a lot longer than you would think). Remember that these are just suggestions. They are worth debating in a friendly manner, and trying out in different combinations. I don't have a sophisticated simulator to try these out on. I know that Baseball Musings has one, but it doesn't take baserunning, platoon splits, and GDPs, etc. into account, although if you want to compare these and other lineups using such a simulator, it would be interesting to compare the results.

And if through some strange twist of fate, it somehow leads to Bengie Molina not hitting cleanup, then all this work will have been be worth it.

Update August 19, 2009, 4:11 P.M. EST: Just realized that I made a small mistake -- Sandoval (whom, I should note, looks like a surefire superstar with those sorts of numbers at age 22) is actually a switch-hitter. It doesn't really make a difference for the orders. I just changed his numbers back to "even" for platoon splits. Sorry, Giants fans, no disrespect intended, the kid is a stud.

Help me, Giants Fans! With Grumblings on Rios (sigh), Thome, and none on Strasburg

devil_fingers — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:10:28 -0000

A (self-promoting) reminder: Only does Driveline have it's own Twitter feed, but you can also follow me, devil_fingers, on Twitter as well for additional cleverness. For example, check this recent awesome tweet from me. That's the kind of exclusive brilliance you'll get pretty much every day if you follow me.

Help me, Giants fans and followers! I'm working on batting order optimization stuff for the Giants, but I'm a bit flummoxed about what the starting outfield is when everyone is healthy. I know that managers don't always put the best players out there, but I want to use the guys who are the nominal starters and optimize that group rather than argue about who "should" be starting. The outfield I have at the moment is Fred Lewis (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF), and Randy Winn (RF). But these guys haven't played much together recently. What's gong on? What's up with Eugenio Velez getting so many starts recently? What is Nate Schierholtz's role? Are the other guys hurt, just getting more rest? Is it okay if I assume that Lewis-Rowand-Winn is the primary starting OF down the stretch. If not, who should it be? Yes, I've looked around the internet, and just can't figure it out. I guess I'm too dumb. I'd really like it to be Lewis-Rowand-Winn given the time and effort I've spend estimating their baserunning and GDP skills ( also happen to believe this gives the Giants the best chance ot win), but if I have to make changes for Schierholtz and/or (shudder) Velez, I will. To repeat, I want to know who likely will play, not who should play.

After the jump: notes on some (somewhat) recent notes from Jayson Stark (Strasburg-free content!).

Rios the Underachiever: Sorry come back to Alex Rios after the topic's been beat into the ground on the internet the last week or so, but I when I read Stark's column, I couldn't help myself. It seems like there's a higher than usual amount of quotes about player "attitude" in quotes from (predictably) anonymous players, executives, and scouts in this Stark column. I'm not going after Stark on this one. It's his job to report this stuff. Without going through all of it (predictable "John Smoltz would be a great veteran influence on a young team!" and "Vincente Padilla is a loose cannon!" stuff), what caught my eye were the quotes on the recently-waived-and-claimed Alex Rios. Here are three quotes from ex-teammates from Stark's column followed by one from a scout:

• "He's not a winning-type player. He's a guy who just doesn't have that burning desire to win, or be great."

• "He was a guy who just didn't go after it. He'd be sleeping in his locker 10 minutes before he had to go out on the field. And not just once."

• "He wasn't the same player after he got that [seven-year] contract. It sure seemed like he was a lot more motivated when he was looking for a contract than he was since he got the contract."

Meanwhile, scouts we surveyed seemed dubious, too.

"This guy should be a perennial 30-30 [HR-SB] guy," said one. "But to me, he's a classic underachiever. If Ozzie takes the wrong approach, he's going to lose him. He's a guy you've got to go real slow with. But whether Ozzie has that kind of patience, boy, I don't know."

As tired as the "the guy just doesn't care" stuff is, the saber-backlash against it is also a bit played out. I don't want to totally dismiss the personal accounts of people in the game. Still, I'm curious. Who are the ex-teammates? Are they still with the Blue Jays? Maybe it's guys who played with him on Toronto but aren't there any more (Scott Rolen, Internet Sensation Gregg Zaun (a d_f favorite for a long time)? Former Locker Room Leader and Dry Erase Board Poet Shea Hillenbrand? When I hear phrases like "winning-type player" the first thing I think of is Willie Bloomquist's signing with the Royals... but that's another dead horse. Maybe Rios is sleeping in his locker because of "flu-like symptoms" (ahem). But the best one is the ex-teammates who said Rios wasn't the same after the new contract. The contract was signed in April 2008 (the beginning of the season). Here are Rios' seasonal WAR values from 2006 through 2008: 3.3. in 2006, 4.6 in 2007, and 5.5 in 2008. So after he "wasn't the same guy," he was among the best outfielders in baseball.

I remember hearing a lot of the same things about Robinson Cano who, after a 5 win 2007, got an extension before the 2008 season, then had a down season. Everyone said it was because they gave him the extension too early and that he backed off. Well, what do you know, still living off the guaranteed money, Cano has bounced back big time this season.

Maybe these guys got complacent or maybe they didn't. It will be interesting to watch. To me, it seems like Rios is just having a down year, and that the best bet is that he's around a 3.5 WAR player going forward (with the "normal " 0.5 WAR a year decline). I guess we'll see. Maybe he'll return to 2008 form, and we'll get a string of "change of scenery" or "Ozzie's a motivational genius!" stories. You know, because it couldn't just be that he was that good all along and 2009 was a deviation...

Thome (and friend): To end on a more positive note Stark notes that despite his age, Jim Thome still looks to be one of the better free agent DH options out there in free agency. And, hey, when I was doing some early projections for 2009-10 free agency, guess what? Thome was tied for the best 1B/DH out there at about 2.4 WAR.

Who was Thome tied with? You guessed it, your hero and mine

Russ F---ing Branyan

Dodgers Hope For More Of The Same In Game Two

Eric Stephen — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 21:45:08 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Manny Ramirez is so good, he doesn't even need a bat.

Browse more photos »

It was a raucous atmosphere in San Francisco last night, but the Dodgers were able to silence the frenzied crowd by taking the opening game of the series, 4-2.

Randy Wolf hopes to do some more silencing tonight, as he starts for the Dodgers. Wolf is a good bet to pitch at least six innings, as he has done in each of his last eight starts. Wolf has pitched six innings or more in 20 of 24 starts this season. Wolf has faced the Giants just once this season, not surprisingly garnering a no-decision. In that game, Wolf gave up three unearned runs in the first inning, but rebounded by retiring 16 of his final 18 batters, pitching six innings and keeping the Dodgers in a game they would eventually lose 5-4.

Joe Martinez, the 26-year old rookie who was hit in the head by a line drive in April, returned to the Giants last week, winning his first major league start, in Houston. Martinez is a fastball/curve pitcher with excellent control (1.9 walks per nine innings in five years in the minor leagues), and was described by Baseball America as "a groundball machine."

Since the return of Manny Ramirez, the Dodger offense has hit .304/.375/.459 in 17 games on the road, averaging 5.32 runs per contest.

Nate Schierholtz is scheduled to come off the disabled list for the Giants today, and that will likely lead to less playing time for Randy Winn, and perhaps even Aaron Rowand. From Andrew Baggarly of the Contra Costa Times:

Bochy wouldn't say for certain that Winn and center fielder Aaron Rowand would sit more often down the stretch. But he acknowledged that he would meet with both players before today's game.

"I'll sit down with them and talk about it," Bochy said. "We know it's going to be a challenge. We'll rotate this around, do the matchup thing. We all have one agenda, and that's to win."

Orlando Hudson is expected to sit out tonight's game with a groin injury.

Get your guesses in for "Just A Bit Outside" here.

Game Time: 7:15pm

TV: KCAL

Baseball Reference Preview

SB Nation - Nate Schierholtz

NL West in Review: Right Fielders

Arizona

2009 in Review

Justin Upton

#10 / Right Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

2010 in Preview

Colorado

2009 in Review

Brad Hawpe

#11 / Right Field / Colorado Rockies

2010 in Preview

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Andre Ethier

#16 / Right Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

2010 in Preview

San Diego

2009 in Review

Will Venable

#25 / Right Field / San Diego Padres

2010 in Preview

2009 in Review

Randy Winn

#2 / Left Field / San Francisco Giants

2010 in Preview

The Giants and Minor League Evaluation

Giants must see history repeated

San Francisco Giants (77-66, W1, 3rd, 4.5 GB WC, 7.5 GB Div)

Monday-Wednesday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

The Arms: A

Probable Pitchers:

My take

Will the Giants be vanquished?

Completely. Beating Lincecum will completely deflate the Giants, initiating their ensuing roll-over.

Yes. The Rockies will win this series, placing the Giants further out than the Rockies were in 2007 at the same point.

Almost. The Rox win one game, keeping the Gigantes on their death bed, but someone else will have to put the nail in the coffin.

Nope. Lightning strikes twice, and the Giants are less than two games back. Hold on to your hats.

A Pretty Penny

Kuroda Dazzles in Rout of the Giants

Role reversal: after stumbling in the divisional chase, Rockies must fend off Giants' pursuit

San Francisco Giants (69-59, L1, 3rd, 3 GB WC, 7 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

The Arms: A

Probable Pitchers:

My take

By dinnertime Sunday, I will be feeling:

Elated: Sweeping the Giants on the road against those pitchers is an even bigger blow to their playoff chances than the resulting 6 game lead.

Very happy: That was a tough series win and it showed who the better team is.

Uneasy, but understanding: I couldn't have expected to win this series, but that two game lead is more tenuous than I'd like.

Terrified: The offense isn't clicking, we've lost five in a row, and the Giants have caught us. Maybe the choke's on us.

Rockies 14, Giants 11: Offense explodes in roller coaster win

Notes

Comment of the Night

You're kidding me. by befizzle on Aug 22, 2009 8:06 PM MDT

You're kidding me.

Row Call

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Francisco Giants

Lineup Optimization by The Book

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Getting to the Point

Final Thoughts:

Help me, Giants Fans! With Grumblings on Rios (sigh), Thome, and none on Strasburg

Dodgers Hope For More Of The Same In Game Two

You're kidding me.

by befizzle on Aug 22, 2009 8:06 PM MDT