SB Nation - Eric Gagne

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:02:27 -0000

More photos » by Jacques Boissinot - AP

Eric Gagne, seen here in his Quebec Capitales uniform from the Can-Am League, is looking to return to the majors. The Brewers aren't interested.

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Some things to read while I work on the logistics of this.

No matter how ugly this offseason gets, at least we know it won't be this bad: The Brewers are not interested in a reunion with Eric Gagne, who spent the 2009 season pitching in the independent Can-Am League. I'm guessing interest in his services will be pretty light.

Speaking of moves that probably won't be made, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are unlikely to make a deal to clear up the logjam in their infield, unless "the pitching equivalent of Mat Gamel" is on the table. I'm not sure where the Brewers will find ABs for both Gamel and McGehee, but I'd guess Gamel might start 2010 in AAA if both return.

It's a light news day, so I scraped the bottom of the barrel for a roundup of players that have been mentioned in association with the Brewers over the last few weeks:

Brewer Paradise Lost ended their long hiatus with a post advocating for signing Jarrod Washburn.
Jack Moore of FanGraphs looks at Edwin Jackson's improved 2009 season, and says he still shouldn't be considered an elite pitcher.
Meanwhile, Dave Allen of FanGraphs looks at Joel Pineiro's decreasing walk rate and ability to get ground balls.
Lyle Spencer of MLB.com says John Lackey is believed to be seeking "Barry Zito dollars." This could be a great deal, as Zito dollars look great on the surface but perform at a tiny percentage of their expected worth.
If Craig Counsell really is considering offers from other teams this offseason, Omar Vizquel might be one name mentioned as a possible replacement. Vizquel, however, appears to want to play for a higher-profile team. The Phillies are the early favorite to sign him.
Dayn Perry lists Mike Cameron to the Cardinals as one of ten moves that need to happen this offseason.

After weeks of wondering about his whereabouts, TheJay found Adam Heether yesterday...sort of. A news story from his Venezuelan team's home page says Heether can't be released while he's injured. There's no mention of the details of the injury, or why they would want to release him in the first place...Heether was hitting .214/.389/.371 in his first 21 games.

Elsewhere in the minors, Wisconsin Sports Tap has ranked the top 15 outfielders in the Brewer system. The cupboard is pretty bare at the upper levels of the minors, but there's good depth in the lower levels that could develop into an organizational strength.

Just one transaction of note today:

Phillies: Removed infielder Eric Bruntlett from their 40-man roster.

I don't know why I waited this long to mention this, because it makes me laugh nearly every day: If you haven't seen it yet, you should be checking out the "Faces" series at Lookout Landing.

Over the last decade, we've seen major organizational shifts across baseball to emphasize the development and value of prospects. Minor League Baseball is setting record attendance numbers as fans come out to see the players of the future, and teams are taking great strides to protect their investments. Why, then, are the same players being fed a steady diet of junk food before and after games? Garrett Broshuis has a look at he diet of minor leaguers, and the challenges they face trying to find healthy options.

In yesterday's Fall/Winter League Update, I mentioned that D-Backs first baseman Conor Jackson is leading all Dominican batters with a .561 OBP this winter. That's even more impressive when you remember a detail I forgot: Jackson is recovering from Valley Fever, which cost him a large portion of the 2009 season.

B-Ref sponsorships are a great way to help support a site many of us use every day and frequently take for granted, but they're also a great opportunity for jokes: Baseball Junk Drawer has a top ten list of the best page sponsorship comments. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

Happy birthday today to:

Matt Wise, who posted a 3.93 ERA in 175 games as a Brewer and turns 34.
1991-1992 Brewer Dante Bichette, who turns 46.
Mike Felder, who spent 1985-1990 as a Brewer and turns 48.

Today is also the 41st anniversary of the birth of Gary Sheffield. While "Happy birthday" doesn't really seem appropriate, it merited acknowledgment.

I missed it yesterday, but today appears to be another Woot-off Day.

Oh, and don't forget to check the IQ. (h/t @AccidentalWI)

Drink up.

Weekend Mug 11/15

Fatter than Joey — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 06:50:01 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

This dude hates Spaghettio's, and hates that you love them.

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Hello Kids!

I see your Regular Dad has dropped you off at your Weekend Dad's doorstep. Apparently Mr. Fancypants has better things to do, than keeping you kids up to date about the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. I have no idea what happened to your Regular Dad, one can only guess... in any case, let me turn off the Carmen Electra workout tape, put on some fresh sweatpants, open up a can of Spaghettio's and tell you all about the Brewers.

One thing my therapist encourages me to do every morning, is to google Ned Yost, and then reassure myself that Ned Yost, or his evil offspring, Ned Yost IV, can no longer hurt me. I thought it was interesting that this quote from Ned Yost, was produced by the google engine.

The Atlanta Braves were in last place for years and years before I got there.

The fact that Yost didn't make the finalist stage, and that the Astros eventually hired Brad Mills, is probably evidence that someone in Houston can muster up enough brain activity to fog a mirror, contrary to previous reports of a flatlining front office.

Doug Melvin showed his own mirror fogging prowess by declining the option on Brewer souvenir generator Braden Looper. The Brewers will have to pay Looper $1M for the opportunity to decline his option, however they will save $5.5M in salary for 2010, and probably another $400K in lost baseballs. Looper is a type B free agent now, and while the Brewers could offer Looper arbitration, it is unlikely, since Looper stands to make as much money in the arbitration process as his declined option would have provided.

Bleacher Report thinks Melvin did the right thing in declining Looper's option, however argues that unless the Brewers dump Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will still suck at pitching.
Along the same lines, Rob Neyer snips TH, and rips Looper, and wonders why Melvin just can't DFA Bush, Parra and Suppan. (TH story)
FireDougMelvin.com reminds us, that while we put new Hefty bags on the windows on our double-wide by releasing Looper, we are still living in the trailer park.
Quick! Name the only 4 pitchers in the history of MLB that were able to give up 39 or more homeruns in under 200 IP. (Answer: Jose Lima 48/196.1; Eric Milton 40/186.1; Shawn Boskie 40/189.1; Braden Looper 39/194.2)
Quote from Braden Looper:

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game"

In other Brewer News:

The Brewers passed on RyDo to get CarGo.
Former Brewer draftpick Andrew Bailey, went from TJ surgery to potential ROY winner
Is Edwin Jackson a good fit? Is he worth a Mat Gamel?
I did not know Ken Macha was 1st cousins with Hal Newhouser, I am guessing through marriage.
Deputy Braun is opening a grill, and scored his 2nd Silver Slugger award
Ben Sheets is awaiting offers from all 30 MLB teams.
Mark Mulder and Doug Melvin are talking
Seth McClung was interviewed about Twittering, and is generous with his High School.
Eric Gagne wants to pitch in MLB again... as a starter... he developed a cutter, which apparently is helping his batted balls adhere to the laws of physics.
What's dumber than signing Doug Davis? Answer: Getting into a bidding war for Doug Davis

In other MLB news:

Jack Wilson signed a 2 year deal with the Mariners. The Fielding Bible says Wilson is the best fielding SS in MLB. The Home & Garden Bible says Wilson is an above replacement yard gnome.
RJ Swindle signed a minor league deal with the Rays.
Justin Huber has a weekend dad in Japan
Carl Crawford is pissed beyond belief
Rafael Betancourt needs a new Regular Dad

Your Regular Dad is always making you take quizzes, where you have to do math, and are required to spell names correctly. What is wrong with him? -- Weekend Daddy just wants you to match up these Weekend Grannies with the crimes they committed, isn't that more fun?

This is generally the place in the Mug where Regular Dad generally wishes some (but usually not all) former Brewers a Happy Birthday. Instead of doing that, why don't we join the greatest Brewer of all-time, Sixto Lezcano, in wishing young Jimmy Salladay a happy birthday.

A gathering of Angels appeared above my head
They sang to me this song of hope and this is what they said:
Weekend Dad is greater than Regular Dad

Jonathan Broxton, Ace Reliever

Eric Stephen — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:27:53 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Jonathan Broxton has had a wonderful season for the Dodgers in 2009.

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Jonathan Broxton over his last 10 outings has allowed one unearned run in 10.2 innings, allowing 10 baserunners while striking out 17 of the 41 batters he has faced. Last night, Broxton became the fourth Dodger to amass 30 saves in a season, joining Eric Gagne, Todd Worrell, Jeff Shaw, and Takashi Saito. Among major league relievers this season, Broxton ranks:

1st in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) (2.3)
1st in strikeouts per nine innings (13.50)
1st in batting average against (.163)
1st in most games with two or more strikeouts (34)
2nd in most perfect outings of three batters or more (25)
2nd in OPS against (.495)
2nd in hits allowed per nine innings (5.12)
2nd in slugging percentage against (.244)
3rd in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) (2.19)
7th in walks plus hits per inning pitched (0.979)
7th in on-base percentage against (.251)
11th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.65)

No reliever in Dodger history has more strikeouts through age 27 than Jonathan Broxton's 401 career punchouts. By the way, Broxton is only 25.

Jonathan Broxton is one of the very best relievers in all of baseball. I just felt the need to point that out.

Kemp & Ethier Rule The Day For Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 06:06:04 -0000

More photos » by Matt Sayles - AP

Andre Ethier made a spectacular catch to preserve the lead in the top of the eighth inning tonight.

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Matt Kemp stole the show early, and Andre Ethier saved the Dodgers late, holding off the Diamondbacks 4-3 at Dodger Stadium in the second game of their four-game series.

Kemp homered in the first, then singled and stole second in the third, scoring when a throw from rightfielder Justin Upton hit Kemp at second base. Kemp motored around third, scoring easily, a la Kirk Gibson. This was the third game of the season in which Kemp had both a home run and a stolen base.

Kemp has also homered in four straight games and five of his last six, giving him a career high 23 on the season. Is a 30/30 season in reach? It sure looks like it.

Vicente Padilla was solid, giving up only a run in 5.1 innings. Early on, it looked like his night would be a short one, as he loaded the bases with nobody out in the first inning. However, he gave up just one run that inning, retiring 16 of the final 19 batters he faced.

Scott Elbert, on his first day back up with the big club, gave up two runs in the sixth to tie the game, but the Diamondbacks would score no more off the Dodger bullpen. Ronald Belisario picked up his third win of the year, pitching 1.1 scoreless innings, although he did allow an inherited run to score.

Justin Upton, who rivals Kemp for the title of best young outfielder in baseball, had three hits in five at-bats for the second straight game. Upton has been unbelievable over his last 20 games, hitting .427/.489/.756 with 20 runs scored and 18 driven in. He has reached the point where I don't want him batting against the Dodgers in any situation, yet I can't turn away when he's at the plate.

Andre Ethier drove in the go-ahead run in the bottom of the seventh with a bases-loaded walk, and then saved the Dodgers' bacon in the top of the eighth with a wonderful running catch at the wall in right field, saving at least a game-tying double, if not more, by Brandon Allen.

Jonathan Broxton picked up his 30th save on the season, becoming just the fifth Dodger to do so, joining Eric Gagne (three times), Todd Worrell (three times), Jeff Shaw (twice), and Takashi Saito. Broxton has struck out 13 of the last 28 batters he has faced.

Hiroki Kuroda pitched five innings for Class A Inland Empire tonight, and per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times, is tentatively slated to start Sunday night against San Diego.

Chad Billingsley faces off against Max Scherzer tomorrow night. Jim Thome is expected to be activated tomorrow, and although the corresponding move hasn't yet been announced, Beto Duran of ESPN 710 noted that Travis Schlichting was placed on the 60-day disabled list to make room on the 40-man roster. However, that move has not yet been announced.

UPDATE: Schlichting to the 60-day DL has been reported by Jim Peltz and Kurt Streeter of the LA Times.

WP -Ronald Belisario (3-3): 1.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

LP -Leo Rosales (1-1): 1.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 1 strikeout

Sv - Jonathan Broxton (30): 1 IP, 1 hit, 2 strikeouts

Box Score

Bloody Sox Laundry, Aug. 23: Seeing the Yanks in October, Wagner confusion and is 2009 the new 2004?

Randy Booth — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 10:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

The Boston Bash Brothers

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After a 20-11 game and a 14-1 followed, it's a wild time in Red Sox Nation.

Before the Sox try to win the series against the Yankees tonight (your move, Mr. Josh Beckett), here's some nice Sunday reading for you to check up on.

Don't understand the Red Sox claiming Billy Wagner? Jonathan Papelbon doesn't get it either:

"Is he ready to pitch or is he not? You know what I mean?" asked Papelbon. "I think our bullpen is good where we’re at right now. Don’t get me wrong. But I guess you could always make it better. It’s kind of like the Gagne thing, I guess."

Ah, the Gagne thing. In 2007, the Sox had the best bullpen ERA in the majors thanks to the dominant work of Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen (among others). But the Sox worried about the toll of the season on Okajima especially (the Japanese lefty, in his rookie year, had to be shut down for a stretch due to fatigue), and so the Sox traded for Eric Gagne at the July 31 deadline.

Theo Epstein is all about depth and that's what Wagner brings. But even Manny Delcarmen is questioning if bringing Wagner on is the right thing. If it does happen and Wagner pitches poorly, how can you blame him? His future teammates are already shooting him down:

"We loved Gagne coming over here, just the stuff that he had, but it was an awkward situation this late in the season," said Delcarmen. "I think our bullpen is fine right now.

"It is what it is. If (Wagner) comes and helps us win, that’s what we want. But sometimes, shaking things up this late might work out different. We’ll see what happens."

Allan Wood is proving Jim Rice wrong. One quotation at a time:

Rice isn't worth this work, but here goes:

1. "baggy uniforms" - Throughout most of baseball history, players wore baggy uniforms. Pictures exist of this. However, baseball also often follows American styles and in the Rice era, players wore tight pants. Rice's generation is the anomaly, not the rule.

2. "dreadlocks" - Statistical studies have shown that your choice of hair style do not make you hit or pitch better (or worse) than another person with "normal" hair. And check out some of the Afros from Rice's day, like Oscar Gamble's. Plus, the Afro was a political statement first associated with the Black Power Movement.

And the list continues. It's unfortunate Rice is getting this much flake, but it's hard to say he doesn't deserve it. Let's hope he can leave this trainwreck with just a bruise and nothing more...

Did you know how good the AL East second basemen really are? I've never really thought about it closely before, but Tyler Hissey breaks it down: Dustin Pedroia or Robinson Cano is the question in this post:

New York Yankees beat reporter Joel Sherman recently posed an interesting question to seven front office executives. Sherman, who writes for the New York Post, asked each front office exec which second baseman they would rather have as their starter over the next five years: Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia.

Pedroia, the reigning American League Most Valuable Player, was the easy winner, collecting all seven votes in the informal poll. The reason, according to the article, was that the diminutive Boston second baseman has better makeup, is a "leader" and "winner."

[...]

Going forward, there are so many factors that will end up determining which mid-20s star will have the better career. Pedroia, to me, is the safer pick, though, and make-up is only a minor reason why. He is more consistent, has much better plate discipline and is the better defender. Cano has a ton of talent himself (with more power), and, if he can improve his walk rate and become more selective, could emerge into a real stud. Even if that does not happen, he should be a tremendous asset for the Yankees. He is an excellent player, indeed, and New York fans should accept him for what he is.

Pedroia, though, would get my pick.

Pedroia is a no-brainer over Cano, but like Hissey said, it's hard to take anything away from Cano. He's a talented ballplayer with a pretty good skillset. Brian Roberts, though, may take the cake out of all these guys. I'll still take Pedroia, but Roberts just wrecks the ball. 1. Pedroia, 2. Roberts, 3. Cano, in my opinion (let's not even talk about super utility man Ben Zobrist).

The "power of three" is great. But isn't two better than three? No? Well, maybe? For the Sox's sake I hope so:

If you believe in the power of threes, the Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have a chance to emerge as very good postseason teams, because having three top starters is important in the playoffs.

According to former pitching coach Rick Peterson, the two staffs that pop out are the Yankees’ and Phillies’. Philadelphia, he said, is "without question one of the best rotations in the game.’’ And the Yankees "look like they’ll be tough in the playoffs.’’

If we're talking twos, I'll take Josh Beckett and Jon Lester over anyone, in my opinion. If we're sticking with threes, though, I can't say the same for the Sox's No. 3 starter. Clay Buchholz could be good, but he's not proven yet. Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka are question marks as well.

And as Drugs Delaney pointed out, Red Sox's two > Yankees' two. No question about it.

Here's hoping that 2009 is the new 2004. I'd love for it to happen, but lightning rarely strikes twice.

In 2004, after 121 games (same as Saturday) they were 6.5 games back. On August 23 (that's today), they started a 10-game winning streak and finished three games back. They never caught the Yankees, but they still made the playoffs, setting up the magical four-game comeback that turned every Red Sox fan in America into an insufferable jerkoff.

So what happens next? One thing I can guarantee you is that if the Red Sox and Yankees do end up meeting in the ALCS, there won't be quite as many folks rooting for the collapse of the Evil Empire this time. Oh sure, the Yanks are still a boil on the face of baseball, but the Sawx have become the equally ugly wart on its nose. It's the kind of un-winnable choice that occasionally makes sports fandom seem futile.

Yes, please.

October: You, me, those guys -- let's do it. Red Sox and Yankees could find themselves in more matchups come October:

We're getting the Red Sox at their best and the Yankees at their worst. Or we're getting the Yankees at their best and the Red Sox at their worst.

There hasn't yet been one point this year where Yankees-Red Sox felt like an even matchup. But maybe there's still time for that.

Maybe that's what October is for.

Maybe that's where this is heading.

I would like to point out that the 15 inning, 0-0 game was most certainly a "matchup." That was the best game of the year, in my opinion. So I think Mr. Knobler is off a little bit in that sense, but the fact these two could face again in the ALCS is definitely a possibility. It's something that I think everyone in RSN would love to witness.

Beckett v. Sabathia -- to the death. Beckett and Sabathia will meet for the first time since game 5 of the 2007 ALCS:

Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia have faced each other before on a grand stage. Never, however, under the bright lights of the storied rivalry that is Red Sox-Yankees.

That'll change on Sunday night at Fenway Park, where the 14-game winners will square off in their first meeting since Game 5 of the 2007 American League Championship Series.

[...]

"They're both great pitchers who have great stuff," said Boston slugger Victor Martinez, who has had the privilege of catching both hurlers. "They're very focused on what they're doing. They know exactly what they're doing, and they're very tough."

Winning this series would be sweet and now it's all on Beckett's shoulders. If the Sox were to win one of these games in the series, this would be it.

Go Sox!

Jonathan Broxton: Road Warrior?

Eric Stephen — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:43:56 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Maybe if the road jerseys would have "Dodgers" across the front, Jonathan Broxton might have better numbers away from home.

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Jonathan Broxton has had some rough outings recently, and judging from the comments here he is the most polarizing member of the 2009 Dodgers. Overall, his numbers are very good, but Broxton seems to suffer from the comparisons to Eric Gagne, who put up arguably the greatest three-year run of any reliever in history, and to a lesser extent, Takashi Saito. Simply being one of the best closers in the league doesn't seem good enough for some, as it seems like Broxton has a nearly impossible standard to live up to.

Broxton took over as closer for an injured Takashi Saito last July 18. Since then, his numbers compare favorably with some of the best closers in the game:

Closers July 18, 2008 to Present
Closer	Sv/Bsv	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
Jonathan Broxton	40/8	84.1	3.74	13.23	0.43	2.99	2.18	1.032	.174/.265/.248
Joe Nathan	42/7	73.2	2.32	10.63	0.49	1.59	2.29	0.828	.162/.228/.263
Mariano Rivera	51/2	79.1	1.13	9.53	0.91	1.93	2.70	0.857	.197/.223/.302
Jonathan Papelbon	50/5	90.0	2.70	9.30	0.60	2.30	2.90	1.178	.231/.290/.330

Since news of Broxton's toe injury came out, after he gave up multiple runs in back to back outings in San Diego and Milwaukee, he has struggled, with three blown saves in nine opportunities. His ERA over that time is a reasonable 3.14, and opposing batters have hit .192/.276/.365, but his FIP over these last 14.1 innings is 4.77. Still, if healthy, Broxton is the Dodgers' best option for closer. That is the million dollar question facing Joe Torre and his staff. For now, Broxton says he's healthy, and its up to management to sift through the bravado and see if he's telling the truth.

Another suggestion I have seen is to make Broxton the closer at home, but not on the road, where his numbers are demonstrably worse. I was quick to dismiss this, partially because Broxton's worst two outings were when he was hiding his toe injury, and were both on the road. However, I went back and looked at Broxton's 2008 splits as well, and even if we remove the two bad road "toe games" (in San Diego and Milwaukee), the splits are quite shocking:

Jonathan Broxton Splits as Closer (minus the two "toe games")
Location	Sv/Bsv	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
Home	22/1	50.1	1.97	13.23	0.00	1.25	0.96	0.675	.135/.190/.158
Road	18/7	32.0	5.63	13.78	1.13	4.50	3.74	1.375	.203/.324/.356

A few things jump out there. First, Broxton has walked nearly three times as many batters on the road than at home. Second, he has yet to allow a home run at home as a closer. Part of that home run difference has to be luck, but the difference is still striking. The batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .235 at home, which suggest those numbers are a bit lucky, but Broxton's road BABIP is .299, so those road numbers are true.

Are 32 innings enough to draw a conclusion? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. It does seem a little unwieldy for a club to have a different closer at home and on the road. Would a move like that affect Broxton's confidence, or are we too quick as fans to psychoanalyze our favorite athletes? Should Broxton be more adamant about having the grounds crew tend to the mound when he enters the game on the road? I am still of the opinion that Broxton is the best man for the closer job, home or road, but I will admit these are all questions I don't know the answers to, and the differences between home Broxton and road Broxton are wide enough to plant even the slightest seed of doubt in my mind.

Washington Nationals: Trade Deadline Roundtable - Joe Beimel, Willie Harris, "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo And Stephen Strasburg.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:00:15 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Washington Nationals relief pitcher Joe Beimel reacts after making a throwing error against the Colorado Rockies to load the bases in the eighth inning of the Rockies' 5-4 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, July 7, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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(ed. note - "I asked the Federal Baseball.com readers recently, if they'd be interested in participating in a roundtable discussion about what they expected to see happen and what the Washington Nationals should do in these last few days before the July 31, 2009 MLB Trade Deadline. What follows are the transcripts of those discussions, with myself, Ed Chigliak moderating. Now For Part Three...But First, Reintroductions..."):

Ed Chigliak: Quick Roll Call...Nationals' Fan or Old Expos' Fan, I'll Go First??

Ed Chigliak: Old Expos' Fan...

Mezza: Nats fan. Personally, I dont think two kinds of blue 'works' on a uniform.

Doghouse: Nats fan! They got me back into baseball after 15+ years away from the game.

John: I'm a Nats fan. I grew up in the area, and I went to Orioles games on occasion, but they never felt like the home team.

Martins: Nats Fan, love the dynamic of the team this year. They are the last place team that is much better than a last place team!

Graysnail: Old Expos fan who somehow ended up where the Nats are. Not sure how that happened.

Jim: Old Expos fan who longs for the glory days of the early 1990s.

AFTER THE JUMP...

• Ed Chigliak: Joe Beimel? Willie Harris? Are There Any Other Nationals You Think Might Get Dealt? Or Should Get Dealt?

• Ed Chigliak: Do You Expect Mike Rizzo To Be Given The Full-Time GM Job With The Nationals?

• Ed Chigliak: Will The Nationals Be Able To Sign Stephen Strasburg? How Much Will Washington Have To Pay Their 1st Round Pick?

Ed Chigliak: Joe Beimel? Willie Harris? Are There Any Other Nationals You Think Might Get Dealt? Or Should Get Dealt?

Mezza: YES! While Im starting to think that it would be a mistake to trade Beimel or McDougal, I think its possible they could both be moved. I think that if we kept them both, and acquired a good closer in the off season, our horrific bullpen doesnt look anywhere near as bad as at the start of the season. Think Beimel, McDougal, Clippard, Begman...plus closer of note. Not that bad. Add Storen as a learner and its all roses.

On who should be dealt - I think if the organi(z)ation can move Guzman with his $8m contract for next season...they should be considered for the Nobel Prize in Baseball management. Guz is starting to flop and next season we're stuck with a player in serious decline, earning way too much money with poor defense (highest error count on the team).

Doghouse: Much as I like TAWH, he's the epitome of league-average (100 OPS+, even!). Of course, he's league average at almost every position (although I can't seem to find his ERA numbers, and I don't know how well he blocks the plate). That's a "luxury" any contender would value, but which isn't a necessity for a team a bad as the Nats (Manny described Harris as a "luxury" in a press conference at one point, and that's what he is for DC). Guz and AK should get dealt, but no one will want to pay their share of $8M for either one. I'm calling Guz2010 = AK2009. Beimel is likely the only pitcher we can get something for, and I can see him going for a prospect--and he should. It'll return some of the early-season bullpen pain, but with the steadier rotation it's a risk I'd take.

John: Given the chance, I'd clean house. I'd definitely try to trade Joe Beimel and Willie Harris, but beyond that I'd trade MacDougal, Villone (definitely Villone, he's getting old), Belliard and Guzman. Good teams are built around solid pitching, and when the Nationals' starting pitchers have an average age of 24 or so, I don't think there's much reason to have guys too much older than that around. Bring in some younger guys, let them play together and watch the Nats grow as a team. We've got a young leader in Zimmerman, a fantastic young pitcher in Lannan (and the others aren't bad either), and some good prospects in the system. Trade the older guys we have for younger ones, polish them up, and then start bringing in older guys as the Nationals become contenders.

Martins: Well, I definitely agree with the sentiment that Guzman has to go. If there is a team out there who is fooled into thinking that his .300 batting average makes him a good hitter, then let them have him. As far as the bullpen goes, my attitude towards relievers has always been "don't panic, they fluctuate." And I believe this situation is no different. All you have to do is look at Heath Bell, Brad Lidge, Al Reyes, Chris Ray, George Sherrill, Eric Gagne, and Jose Valverde (to name a few) to realize that one inning pitchers ebb and flow. This year the bullpen has been shaky, next year they could be world beaters. It's the nature of the position.

Graysnail: Do you see anyone nailed down in the clubhouse? I don't. Move 'em all. If you have to prioritize, Guzman may get something decent (provided you pay his way, otherwise it's a straight salary dump, which could be useful for reasons stated below), Harris can net something I'd think, Beimel hasn't been infected with the Suck Virus, and maybe someone even wants Belliard. Maybe. Kearns ...I wouldn't mind moving him, but I think that boat's sailed.

Jim: Without question, there should be more moves. Retaining Beimel is far from a certainty, and the club should move him (I'm sure there are offers, and I know the rumor mill's working overtime with him) for prospects. The biggest name that they should (have already) move is Guzman, and they've already missed a couple of opportunities to do so on both sides of Missouri (both the Royals and Cardinals have added shortstops, with the Royals making one of the worst deals the league has seen since..... wait. I still cry every time I think of Omar Minaya running the show in Montreal). I doubt there would be any takers, though he's at least decided to try during deadline week in the hopes that someone will want him.

I don't think Harris is real movable. Maybe some team will want him as a depth pickup, but I can't imagine that the return would warrant dealing him. Kearns is just dead weight that nobody has wanted to take on for over a year. He'll close out the year so that the Nats can buy him out instead of getting stuck paying a larger portion of his option year in 2010. Belliard had value at the beginning of the year, but doesn't anymore. I don't think any team would be willing to give much up for McDougal either. Basically, the Nats should have some luck moving two of Willingham, Dunn, and Johnson (ideally one of the first two and the last one) and Beimel. While I'd like to see more players go, I just don't see the club getting anything more than depth in the low-to-mid minors (in other words, "prospects" who don't really have any future).

Ed Chigliak: Do You Expect Mike Rizzo To Be Given The Full-Time GM Job With The Nationals?

Mezza: I do. And I think if he signs Strasburg... children from our village will sing his name. Consider this: He signed Zimmerman to a long term deal. He stabilized a terrible bullpen. He drafted one of the best pitching prospects of all time. He made a decent draft overall with guys like Storen looking good. He made a good trade for Morgan and Burnett (and fixed a troubled clubhouse). He ALMOST got Teixeira. What exactly do fans want from this man?

Doghouse: Rizzo is doing right by the fans, but what about the Lerners? If he signs Stras and doesn't do anything stupid at the deadline, I think he has the inside track.

John: I think Mike Rizzo should be given the full-time job, but I don't know if that will actually happen. He's put together a solid draft class and signed most of them, made a good trade with the Pirates, and hasn't made any boneheaded moves. The fact that he hasn't been given the position yet says a lot. Rizzo did some great stuff with the Diamondbacks and has proven himself with the Nationals, so I'm not sure what more the powers that be are looking for. Bringing in anyone else would be a mistake -- why give up a known positive for an untested manager? The Nationals would be trading a very positive influence on this team for an unknown, and, as young as the Nationals are, that's a bad move to make.

Martins: I'm really not sure about this one. I think the trade deadline will have a lot to do with this decision. He is being graded on performance right now, in my opinion. Let's see how he does.

Graysnail: The sick cynicist in me wants to say that Rizzo is gone in favor of another retread. The realist in me says that Rizzo probably comes cheaper than most of said retreads, so he stays. Rizzo understands the farm system, which is always a plus. Coming from the Expos, that's the one thing the 'Spos always had (and the one thing Minaya firebombed when he was with the team), so if that returns, great. Either way, I think we'll know more about this come next week.

Jim: I'm not sure how to answer this question at this time. I feel that he has to get something positive done at the deadline and/or I feel he needs to sign Strasburg. By accomplishing either of those feats, I think he both gets (and probably deserves) the full-time job. If he's unable to move anyone from a roster that will top off (four game winning streak = hope!) at 35 wins by the deadline and he fails to sign Strasburg, I see no reason that the "Acting" should be removed from his title. The current grade is incomplete.

• Will The Nationals Be Able To Sign Stephen Strasburg? How Much Will Washington Have To Pay Their 1st Round Pick?

Mezza: I certainly think they are ABLE to sign Stras...but I also think it will come down to how reasonable Stras is about the deal. I dont think Stras wants to not play and lose out on getting some Major League service time. I think the Nats need to sign him. Id expect him to sign...possibly for $25m-$27m. Anymore than $30m and I think we were robbed. Any less and I'll think Rizzo should be in charge of negotiating the next multilateral trade round.

Doghouse: "Yes," and "too much."

John: I am 100% certain the Nationals will sign Strasburg. I think one of the reasons we haven't seen more trading activity from the Nationals is because they need to save every penny to sign Strasburg. Rizzo has handled the situation very well in not venturing out into the media, and the front office has made statements that strongly suggest he'll be signed: "People in the front office, we know what Stephen Strasburg means to our major league ballclub" and "I believe he will soon be wearing a Nationals uniform." The front office is smart, and I don't think they'd be saying these things unless they have every intention of signing him. As for how much, I'd be surprised to see anything less than $20 million, but I'm going to take a stab and say he'll be signed for $22 million.

Martins: I think the absolute lack of pitching on this club has the Nats over a barrel, and they will be forced to pay whatever Strasburg and his agent want. My only fear, as is always my fear with prospects, is that he does not materialize. This would be a huge black eye for the front office, but at this point, I don't know that they have a choice.

Graysnail: See you in 2010.

Okay, fine, I'll actually answer this one. The funny thing with the Strasburg signing is both parties have each other over a barrel. Strasburg can't really play somewhere else for a year; he's not going to shoot himself in the foot by going to Japan, and there are more horror than success stories of guys pitching in the independent leagues. He's not going to pitch somewhere for pennies when he can blow out his arm and be done for it. For every Luke Hochevar, there's a Matt Hutchinson. By the same token, the Nats absolutely can't afford not to sign him. On the heels of failing to sign Aaron Crow last year, the Nats can't pull that stunt again. They'll not only squander the one nice thing you get by fielding a joke of a team, but sending a message that they're not willing to spend to bring in talent. Casual fans won't stick around if that happens. Couple that with the Nats' craptastic pitching staff and there's a painfully obvious need for a player of his caliber.

The Nats set up this draft perfectly to sign Strasburg, too - Storen's a fine piece but senior college reliever = autosign - so failing to pull the trigger will indicate failure across the board. If he signs, it'll be in the $25 million -$30 million range.

Jim: I'm with Doghouse. "Yes" and "Too Much." They don't really have much of a choice in the matter, and have to sign him after having failed to sign Crow last year. Storen was a draft-eligible sophomore who signed pretty cheap (and fast), which should have helped them save a little on the budget. I think that the Nats will get the deal done somewhere around the $25 million range. Anything less than $30 million and they'll probably chalk it up as the cost of doing business. If they sign him for over $30, the best thing would have been to tell him to take a hike and hope to get more money being selected third overall next year.... oh, and warn him that he'd better get his right arm insured at Lloyd's of London.

The End. (ed. note - "Thanks to everyone who participated, and for anyone who might want to next time, I'm hoping to make this sort of discussion a regular feature. Thanks, Ed Chigliak.")

Blogger Smackdown: Eric Stephen Of True Blue L.A.

Eric Simon — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

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The season may be quickly going into the toilet, but that won't stop us from checking in on the Mets' current opponents, the Dodgers. To see what was shaking in LaLa Land I enlisted the help of Eric Stephen from SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue L.A.

You can read my answers to his questions here.

Manny's back. Is that a good thing? Bad thing? What's your take on steroids in baseball?

Having Manny back is a great thing. The lineup was starting to struggle without him (3.58 runs/game in June after 5.52 runs/game the first two months), and adding a Hall of Fame bat into the lineup is always good. I'm going to root for Manny because he'll help the Dodgers win, but I will admit the relationship has been changed, that's for sure. I tend not to get worked up about performance enhancing drugs in baseball. I would prefer if they weren't around, but its naive to think that. Really the only thing that bothers me about steroids is a perception out there that there is some magic pill or syringe that will turn some average Joe into a major league player. I'm not saying I think steroids and the like don't have an effect; if they didn't, nobody would be taking them. I just think their effects aren't as profound as many people perceive. Back to Manny: he served his suspension and did his time, and now its time to move on to baseball.

The starting rotation has been great. Are there any workload concerns with Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw?

I don't think so. Joe Torre has anointed Billingsley his ace, and rightfully so. He was a Verducci Effect candidate coming into this season, but that seemed a little overblown. Also, Billingsley has never had an arm injury, and had some prolific training and throwing program as a kid designed by his dad, to model after Nolan Ryan. Maybe he was on to something. Kershaw is on pace for somewhere in the 185-200 inning range, a year after throwing 169. Torre and the staff tend to monitor Kershaw pretty well, and I get the feeling they might skip a start or two in August just to limit his innings anyway, to be sharp for the playoffs.

What's with Randy Wolf's reverse Dodger Stadium home/road split (4.04 ERA at home, 2.91 ERA on the road)?

It is pretty weird, but I think it will smooth out over time. Wolf has been a pleasant surprise this season, as much for his performance (4.29 FIP) as his health. He has $3 million in innings-pitched incentives (from 170-200) that I didn't think he had a chance of reaching, yet he seems likely to do so now. It is money I would happily let Frank McCourt pay, just like all the PA incentives for The O-Dog. I want the Dodgers to win every game Wolf starts, but I take preverse pleasure in the fact that Randy Wolf is a mere eight no-decisions away from tying Bert Blyleven's all-time record of 20 for the 1979 "We Are Family" Pirates.

Jonathan Broxton: not quite as good as 2003 Eric Gagne, but pretty damned impressive. Does he have a weakness on the mound? Do you think he could eat more hot dogs than Gagne (~2003 or ~2009)?

Broxton finally had a bad outing Sunday, but for the most part has been ridiculously great this season. I expected him to be very, very good, but there was a large faction of Dodger fans who doubted him coming into the season despite stellar numbers. It has been sweet to see him succeed this year so far.

2009 Broxton could probably eat more hot dogs than 2003 Gagne, but you have to consider the era we are in now. Kobayashi and Joey Chestnut make the hot dog scene seem like MLB in the 1930s. All records aren't what they seem.

Russell Martin: !@#$ the heck is going on?

Martin's complete lack of power is a great concern for Dodger fans, even more so because Martin continues to bat ahead of The Bison (Matt Kemp) in the lineup. Martin's patience and OBP skills are still there, but he simply doesn't drive the ball anymore. Since last year's All-Star break, Martin's slugging percentage is a mere .317. He's tried yoga, has a hot new girlfriend, has rested far more this season, and yet nothing seems to work. I'm just going to assume his power outage was the equivalent of the 24-hour flu, and after the break, a rested Martin will come out swinging for the second half.

Juan Pierre in April/May: where has this guy been? Juan Pierre in June: oh, right. Does he just need Manny around to play well, or was that basically all you're going to get for the $45 million investment in Pierre?

Pierre picked the perfect time to play the best baseball of his career. In the first three weeks of the Manny suspension, it was almost like we didn't skip a beat in left field. He hit .425/.495/.598 over the first 20 games, with almost as many extra base hits (12) as he had all of last year (13). Now that Manny is back, Pierre is the clear 4th outfielder. He will start 1-2 games per week, and be Manny's late-inning defensive caddy, but other than that he's relegated to bench status. That $45 million is a sunk cost, and for once I trust the club realizes that.

Casey Blake is playing his best ball ever, at age 35. This is what the Dodgers thought they were getting when they traded for him last season, but he was actually pretty average after they did so. How does his performance compare to your expectations after the Dodgers resigned him this past offseason?

Casey "The Beard" Blake has far surpassed my expectations I had when the Dodgers gave up quite a stud prospect, catcher Carlos Santana to get him (ranked higher than Matt LaPorta, who the Indians got for C.C. Sabathia). Coming into the season, the prevailing thought was that Blake wouldn't start at 3B for the length of his contract (Blake DeWitt seemed on his way), but Casey Blake continues to prove me wrong.

The funny part of the whole offseason was that Dodger fans were prepared to let 23-year old Blake DeWitt be a starter, at either 2B or 3B. If the Dodgers knew Orlando Hudson would fall into their lap after his market collapsed, I don't think they would have signed Casey Blake. As it stands, the Dodgers have both, at a reasonable cost, and I couldn't be happier.

Are the Dodgers set or will they look to improve at the trade deadline? What areas, if any, do you feel they need to address?

I suspect the Dodgers will add a veteran reliever or two, but nobody of paramount importance. If they go after a starter, it will be someone who will start in the playoffs, meaning he would take starts away from Clayton Kershaw. Thus, I personally would prefer they stay out of the Jarrod Washburn end of the pool and stick to the Halladay/Oswalt/Lee deep end if they decide to test those waters.

If there is a left-handed bat out there, our bench could probably use that, but it seems the Phillies have cornered the market on those guys (Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs).

How is Joe Torre as a manager? What are his strengths and weaknesses?

Torre can make us cringe occasionally with his batting order choices (i.e., Matt Kemp batting 8th), but for the most part he plays the right eight players every day so I can't really complain. His biggest strength is that he's a cool customer. He doesn't get too high after wins, and doesn't get too low after losses, and his even-keeled approach has rubbed off on the players, if only to creat a calming influence in the clubhouse.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:15:21 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Prince Fielder is now tenth on the Brewers' all-time home runs list, which also includes home runs hit as a Cervecero.

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Some things to read while going off your meds.

The future is somewhat uncertain for Seth McClung after last night's poor outing. An off day will allow the Brewers to skip his spot in the rotation next time around, meaning the Brewers won't need a fifth starter until July 11, and a lot can happen between now and then. Manny Parra would probably like that spot back, and he'll start in AAA tonight. A good outing might give him the inside track.

Prince Fielder hit his 21st home run last night, the 135th of his career, and passed Don Money for sole possession of tenth place on the Brewers' all time list. Fielder needs two more home runs to tie Rob Deer for ninth place, and 25 more to tie Paul Molitor for eighth. While I'm thinking of him, I should also note that Paul Molitor will be in Appleton on August 4.

Also, happy birthday to Greg Vaughn, who ranks sixth on that list list with 169 Brewer home runs and turns 44 today.

With every home run, Fielder makes himself a little more likely to be an NL All Star:

Ken Rosenthal has Ryan Braun, Fielder and Yovani Gallardo making the team.
Viva El Birdos has just Braun and Fielder.
Baseball Digest Daily's roster doesn't include pitchers, but they took Braun and Fielder as well.

Casey McGehee is enjoying his return to Wrigley Field, although that might change when he finds out Anthony Witrado spent the day yesterday following his wife around Chicago.

With the Brewers loss and Cardinals win yesterday, the Cardinals have pulled back into a tie for the lead in the NL Central, which now has five teams within three games of first place. There are also nine teams within four games of the NL Wild Card.

It's probably too late to get tickets to go to Chicago this weekend and catch a game in this series but if you missed it, Miller Park Drunk says that's probably for the best. Recaps of all the things that suck about Wrigley Field make it easier for me to understand Cubs fans' desire to go watch the Cubs play somewhere else.

Another July day, another Doug Melvin quote lowering expectations for this trade season. By Monday's Mug, a similar version of this story will run again at least three more times. I don't really see any chance of the Brewers trading J.J. Hardy or Corey Hart during the month, but FakeTeams seems pretty certain the Brewers will either do it in July or during the offseason.

In the minors:

The Official Site has a profile of Eric Arnett and his transition from ultra-workhorse in college to one-or-two inning guy in Helena.
Dominican OF Jose Pena reportedly received a $400,000 bonus from the Brewers, much less than previously expected. The team also signed 17-year-old pitcher Jean Capellan. Both players are expected to report to the team's new academy in the Dominican Republic.
Results of fan balloting are in, and Brett Lawrie bobbleheads will be given to the first 1000 fans through the gates for the Timber Rattlers' game on September 3.

One power ranking to pass along today: Yahoo moved the Brewers up from seventh to sixth.

Around the majors:

Cubs: Completed their trade for Rockies IF Jeff Baker, sending minor league pitcher Al Albuquerque to the Rockies. They also designated Ryan Freel for assignment.
Indians: Acquired reliever Winston Abreu from the Rays for AAA reliever John Meloan.
Marlins: Signed reliever Luis Ayala.
Orioles: Pitcher Bobby Livingston exercised an option in his contract allowing him to become a free agent.

The Texas Rangers are in financial trouble, and while the team looks for a buyer, the situation continues to deteriorate. The team reportedly borrowed $15 million recently from Major League Baseball to make payroll. While this does not give baseball the right to take over control of the franchise, it might give MLB officials some say in Rangers' spending decisions, which could complicate negotiations with their top two draft picks, who are both still unsigned and seeking contracts above slot value.

Remember months ago, when Eric Gagne was believed to need shoulder surgery, but decided to try to rehab instead and pitch in the Can-Am League? Gagne has a 9.60 ERA in 20 innings for Quebec. The surgery probably would have been the right decision.

Earlier this week I cited increased attendance as a reason for keeping interleague play. As it turns out, the attendance bump may not be as big as originally thought. Beyond the Box Score says interleague games are scheduled on prime dates on weekends and in June and July, and the actual attendance bump caused by the games is closer to .4% than the previously reported 11%.

The Mets are now in a unique position to tell us what's worse. They spent most of the week this week at the (supposedly haunted) Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee, and are spending the weekend sharing a hotel with Anthrocon, largest anthropomorphics (furries) convention in the world. Follow the link for a quote from a Mets beat reporter, who had a close encounter with someone who "was dressed like Ralph Wigam as a Beaver." (h/t Bucs Dugout)

Oh, and if you think the crowds are big at Miller Park, today is the 27th anniversary of this 1982 game that crammed 55,716 fans into County Stadium.

Drink up.

The Wednesday Mug

Jordan M — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:45:04 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Prince Fielder runs home on a one-run triple hit by Mike Cameron in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday, June 16, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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After your quick summary of yesterday's games and minor league storylines, on to the Brewers and baseball news of Wednesday, June 17th, 2009.

Dave Bush thinks he has a problem with his mechanics and will work on fixing it before his next start. The article also provides an encouraging line from Ken Macha-- he doesn't consider Casey McGehee an everyday player just yet. I've been as thrilled as anyone with McGehee's performance, but it's not a good idea to fully commit to a hot-hitting bench player with 70 at-bats and little track record. McGehee will likely not play today, he has a sore right knee and a sore left ankle.

Eric Gagne was roughed up in his first Canadian League start. 4 2/3 innings, 9 hits, 4 walks, and 5 runs, and no fastballs above 89 mph.

In "News that doesn't really surprise anybody", Sammy Sosa tested positive for a steroid in 2003. The ShysterBall take is an interesting one. Also in the steroid category, Selig points out that the NFL had or has just as big of a problem with steroids and the media mostly ignores it.

Here's even more from Beyond the Boxscore on the Disabled List, with leaderboards for individual careers and team days on the disabled list. Meanwhile, Furman Bisher is on the loose again, and he wants to do away with pitch counts. He referes to Javier Vazquez as "Valdez" at one point in the paragraph, so I am skeptical of his credibility at this point. Bill James and Joe Posnaski go back and forth about pitch counts at SI.

No one could have ever predicted that Russell Branyan would be a highly effective everyday corner infielder. No one.

I don't think you can compare a decent-hitting college catcher to a player who is on track to be one of the greatest catchers of all time just because they were both picked ahead of where they were supposed to go in the draft. Like the Chipper Jones chart last year, Musings has a .400 probability chart for Joe Mauer. Mauer is so good he could win the batting title right now even though he is 21 plate appearances short of qualifying-- being credited with an 0 for 21 would still keep his average in first.

Interesting that Brian Giles went from being "extremely underrated" to "the worst regular in baseball" within a year. It doesn't take long in baseball.

Here's something interesting-- a major national writer citing defensive statistics to support an argument that Derek Jeter has been a better fielder than usual this season.

The similarities between Manny Parra and Jonathan Sanchez were pretty striking in the first place, and now their struggles are following similar tracks-- both had 8ish k rates in each of the past two years and saw their walk rates jump from 4 to about 6. Parra is in AAA, and Sanchez's trade value is dropping.

On the trade market, Erik Bedard is healthy again. Why do I get the feeling that he will be a Brewer at some point this year?

Tango's blog has some batted ball velocity linear weights. Basically, hit the ball harder and you have a better chance at getting a hit or doing something productive.

Quevedo at the Buffet thinks that Gamel should be the everyday third basemen after the interleague trip is over. I'd start Hall sometimes versus lefties and use him as an 8th inning defensive replacement and let Gamel ride in all the other situations, with no playing time at third for McGehee. I'm curious as to which direction Melvin goes in. I can't see Gamel being sent down at this point.

Tonight's game is at 6:05 central in Cleveland, and the Brewer starting pitcher is Jeff Suppan.