SB Nation - Arthur Rhodes

Trade Target: Maicer Izturis

Slyde — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:19:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Is Maicer Izturis the potential answer to the Reds 2010 needs at shortstop?

Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse is reporting this morning that the Angels could move infielder Maicer Izturis in a deal this off-season. The 29-year old Izturis is a switch-hitter who has played a mix of 2B, SS, and 3B in his big league career and he's played all 3 fairly well defensively. Offensively, he's a career .278/.343/.393 hitter, though his power has been slightly more developed over the last couple of seasons (he slugged .434 in 2009). He shows decent, though not great patience (8.7% career walk rate), but he's only struck out in 11% of his plate appearances. Since we know that he would bat 2nd for the Reds, it's nice to know that he gets on base at a good rate and that he handles the bat pretty well to be able to do the things that Dusty would ask him to do while batting 2nd.

His hitting projections for 2010 look solidly average (only have these two systems for Izturis so far):

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.283	.348	.392	.329
CHONE	.279	.346	.394	.331

Compare that to Paul Janish:

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.223	.301	.319	.276
CHONE	.237	.311	.350	.298
ZiPS	.239	.310	.340

Janish's best projection still puts him about 15 runs offensively behind Izturis over 600 PA. CHONE rates them both as +5 defensively, so an acquisition of Izturis would likely bring the Reds about a win and a half in 2010.

I think Izturis is definitely somebody the Reds should pursue. One-and-a-half WAR is not a huge amount, but Izturis will likely not make more than $2.5-3 million next season, so it would definitely be a cost-effective upgrade. The question is what will the Reds have to give up. Price says in his article that the Angels are looking for a corner outfielder and bullpen help. I'm not sure if they'd have any interest in Jonny Gomes, and he's probably the most viable candidate as an outfield centerpiece to a deal.

That means the Reds probably need to go the relief route. Arthur Rhodes could be a potential candidate for dealing, and the money/contract situation would be similar (both players are free agents after 2010). Given Rhodes' age, I think the Reds should be willing to give him up in a deal since he's a definite risk to have a big dropoff any day now. I'd also consider Daniel Ray Herrera or Jared Burton available as part of a package. And of course, if the Angels wanted to take Francisco Cordero's contract, I'm sure the Reds would even be willing to chip in a couple million to make it worth the effort.

What do you think? Should the Reds pursue Izturis? Do they have a package of players to get it done?

(h/t nycredsfan)

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

Browse more photos »

This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Pirates discover the Reds' Secret Underground Lehr. Reds lose, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Sure, Brandon looks like he's concentrating on the play, but secretly he's beginning to suspect he's not going to be getting that $2 million from David Letterman. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Andy LaRoche. He went 2-3 and drove in two runs.

Key Plays

The Brothers McCutchen did the damage in the third inning. Lehr walked Daniel McCutchen, then Andrew McCutchen doubled. That's when Andy LaRoche hit his single. Pirates 2, Reds 0.
In the fourth inning, Lastings Milledge went all Blastings Milledge and hit a home run. Pirates 3, Reds 0.
The Reds didn't have much in the way of offense, but Wladimir Balentien did hit a home run in the seventh inning. Pirates 3, Reds 1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

On both of his hits, Andy LaRoche was thrown out trying to stretch his single into a double.
Double-machine Paul Janish hit a double. Then Joey Votto hit what should have been a double, but Lastings Milledge made a nice catch. Flashtings-the-Leather Milledge.
Arthur Rhodes apparently broke his toe on Sept. 4. He then pitched in eight games. And now he's on the disabled list. Thanks for the great season, Colossus!
Walt Jocketty also broke his toe when he was kicking Dick Pole to the curb.
This was Daniel McCutchen's first career victory. Shame it came against the Reds, but congratulations kid. You prevented the Pirates from losing 100 games this season.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	0
WP: Daniel McCutchen (1 - 2) SV: Matt Capps (27) LP: Justin Lehr (5 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Then came Bronson. Reds beat the Braves, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 03:16:28 -0000

by John Bazemore - AP

Hang in there. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Bronson Arroyo. 7 innings of one run ball gets him his team-high twelfth win of the season. Jonny Gomes, Wladimir Balentien and Brandon Phillips all had multi-hit games and Scott Rolen did well both at the dish and on the field.

Key Plays

It seemed that Badroyo was en route to a Toronto-esque start in the first inning. He gave up back to back singles to Matt Diaz and Martin Prado, then walked Chipper Jones. Bases loaded, no outs. Ruh Roroyo. Who can get them out of this jam? Brian McCann! A grounder to Scott Rolen led to the 5-2-3 double play, and Adam LaRoche flew out. Scoreless inning.
Jonny Gomes hit his 17th homer in the second inning. Balentien followed that up with a triple, but Corky Miller grounded out to end the inning.
In the fourth inning, Adam LaRoche reached on an error by Votto, and then Yunel Escobar was called out on batter's interference. Shockingly enough, Bobby Cox was thrown out for arguing on behalf of his player. While it's a bit of a farce at this point how often Cox gets tossed, it's nice to see a manager with some fire and willing to stand up for his players.
Escobar did have to leave the game with an ankle injury. Nate McClouth replaced him in the lineup.
In the fifth inning, Balentien led off with a double. Corky Miller bunted him to third... in front of the pitcher. Arroyo popped out, and then Drew Stubbs flew out. It might have been long enough to score Wlad, but the sac bunt insured that that was the third out.
The Braves threatened in the bottom of the fifth with singles from Derek Lowe and Matt Diaz. But Corky picked Lowe off of second, then Arroyo retired Prado and Chipper.
The beef of the Reds order decided to impose their will on the game in the sixth inning. With one out, Joey Votto drew a walk, and then scored when Brandon Phillips hit a double. Scott Rolen continued to impress, hitting a single to drive in Phillips. Jonny Gomes singled too, but the hot-hitting Balentien grounded into a double play to end the inning. Reds 3, Braves 0.
I mean, Braves 1. Nate McClouth hit a home run in the bottom of the sixth.
The heart of the order tried to widen the lead in the eighth inning. Votto again walked with one out, and Phillips singled. Scott Rolen reached on Chipper's fielding error to load the bases. Unfortunately, Gomes struck out and Balentien popped out.
Didn't matter. Arthur Rhodes and Francisco Cordero slammed the door on the Braves, and the Reds win again!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Bronson has a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts.
The Reds have won their fifth straight game, tying a season high.
That was Wladimir Balentien's first career triple.
Gomes has 17 home runs in 249 plate appearances. He had 17 home runs in 2007 too, but it took him 394 plate appearances. His career high is 21 homers, and if he had come up with the team from spring training instead of making his Reds debut on May 22, he would easily have broken that mark. He may still do it.

Final - 9.4.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	8	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	1
WP: Bronson Arroyo (12 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (31) LP: Derek Lowe (13 - 9)

Complete Coverage >

Brandon Phillips Bruises Pirates With Home Run, Breaks Them With a Ground Out. Reds Win 5-3.

Slyde — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 19:36:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Corky, Lastings. Lastings, Corky.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Brandon Phillips. For the second time in the last 3 games, Phillips takes home the honor. BP went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI, including a home run. Drew Stubbs (3 for 4, HR) and Homer Bailey (6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K) are honorable mentions.

Key Plays

The Reds kicked off the scoring in the first inning after Joey Votto coaxed a walk and then moved to second on a balk by Zach Duke. Brandon Phillips followed that up with a single to score Votto, but Phillips was thrown out trying to take second base to end the inning.
The first batter in the second inning for the Pirates, Garrett Jones, homered to tie the game up at one.
Phillips put the Reds back out in front again with his 19th home run of the season in the fourth inning.
The first batter in the fifth inning for the Pirates, Brandon Moss, homered to tie the game up at two.
After striking out the first two batters, Homer Bailey gave up a double to Lastings Milledge and then another double to Ryan Doumit, giving the Pirates a 3-2 lead.
The first batter in the sixth inning for the Reds, Drew Stubbs, homered to tie the game up at three.
Paul Janish reached after Stubbs' homer on a fielding error by Neil Walker. Joey Votto followed with a ground-rule double, his first hit in 17 at bats, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd. Phillips grounded out to second base, but it was enough to get Janish in from third. Darnell McDonald capped the scoring with a single to bring in Votto and the Reds led 5-3.
The Reds put a threat together in the 8th after Votto walked and BP singled, but Jonny Gomes grounded into a force out, McDonald struck out, and Kevin Barker popped out to end the threat.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Homer Bailey came out to pitch the 7th inning despite already having 109 pitches on the day. He's thrown 114, 115, and 116 pitches in his last 3 starts.
Bailey is now a combined 13-9 between the minors and majors this season. This is one year after going 4-13 combined at both levels.
The bullpen trio of Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, and Francisco Cordero struck out 6 of the 9 batters they faced, allowing just one hit.
The offense has had double-digit hits 8 times in the last 11 games after doing it just one time in the previous 27 games.
They have also homered in 10 straight games. It's their longest streak of the season.
The Reds swept the Pirates in a 4-game series at home for the first time since 1975. The last time they swept them in 4 games in 1992, it was in Pittsburgh.
The Reds now have a 6.5 game lead on the Pirates.

If you're going to stake your rep on being a fifth place team, these are the games you HAVE to win. Reds sweep double header, win 6-3.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:18:02 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

He still thinks the C on his hat is for "Cueto." (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Brandon Phillips. Phillips went 3-4 with two runs, two RBI, a home run and a stolen base. He hit what seemed to be a second home run, but replays showed that it was a foul ball.

Key Plays

The Reds came flying out of the gate in the evening contest, with Drew Stubbs singling and Paul Janish bringing him home with a double. One out later, Brandon Phillips scored Janish with a single. Scott Rolen singled and Jonny Gomes hit a ground rule double to plate Phillips. After Darnell McDonald struck out, Corky Miller walked to load the bases. Sadly, Johnny Cueto struck out, but the Reds had a 3-0 lead.
Phillips made it a four run lead in the third inning with his 18th home run of the season.
Cueto, fresh off the DL, cruised until the sixth inning when he gave up a home run to Andrew McCutchen. Danny Ray Herrera came in to relieve, but after getting two quick outs he gave up a single to Ryan Doumit, a double to Steve Pearce, and singles to Brandon Moss and Ronny Cedeno. The Pirates had crept to within one run, and Nick Masset was called on to get the third out of the inning.
The Reds got some Great American Insurance runs in the eighth, when Darnell McDonald hit a ground rule double and Drew Stubbs hit his second home run of the day (but first of the game) to increase the lead to 6-3.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Johnny Cueto's first win since July 1. It's his ninth of the season, which matches his total from last year.
The announced attendance of 13,051 for the day game was actually the attendance number from April 10, the rained out game. The Reds had an attendance of 9,087 for the nightcap, the lowest attendance ever at GABP.
The Reds had not swept a double header in ten years. (Actually, the last time I'm seeing such a sweep occurred on May 26, 1997. John Smiley beat Al Leiter [BOO!], and Mike Morgan beat Matt Beech. Terry Pendleton played third base. I'd totally forgotten he'd ever been a Red.)
With nine more losses, the Reds will clinch a losing season for the ninth straight year.
Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes pitched in both games for the Reds. Jesse Chavez pitched in both games for the Pirates.
Francisco Cordero earned his 29th save. He's five away from passing Dan Quisenberry on the all-time list.

Final - 8.31.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	8	0
Cincinnati Reds	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	X	6	13	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (9 - 10) SV: Francisco Cordero (29) LP: Paul Maholm (7 - 8)

Complete Coverage >

Reds 8, Brewers 6 (13 innings)

KLSnow — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:32:42 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

If you're Chris Bosio, what do you tell Jeff Suppan at this point?

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W: Daniel Ray Herrera (2-4)
L: Todd Coffey (4-3)

HR: Felipe Lopez (8), Laynce Nix 2 (12), Joey Votto (19)

MVP: Felipe Lopez (+.194)
LVP: Mike Cameron (-.288)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

All told, that was a lot closer to a victory than I expected tonight, but still a loss.

On the mound, Jeff Suppan picked right back up where he left off. After missing nearly a month with a strained oblique, Suppan returned to the rotation tonight and lasted just 4.1 innings, retiring 13 batters and allowing 14 baserunners and four earned runs. As bad as it was, it could have been much, much worse: Suppan had a runner in scoring position with no one out in each of his first four innings of work. He threw 90 pitches, 50 of them strikes and remains winless since June 12.

The Brewer bats, meanwhile, waited until the last moment to wake up. Bronson Arroyo held the Crew to one run on six hits in seven innings, and struck out four. Felipe Lopez hit a solo home run to provide the team's only offense against him. Counting tonight's outing, Arroyo has now posted a 1.89 ERA in five August starts.

The Brewers came back to life in the ninth, as Frank Catalanotto reached on an error with one out, Jason Kendall drove him home on a double and Mike Rivera drew a pinch hit walk, before Dusty Baker brought in Arthur Rhodes to face Felipe Lopez, who reached on an infield single to load the bases. Craig Counsell drew a bases loaded walk to bring up Ryan Braun, who hit a two-run single to bring the Brewers within one. Prince Fielder hit a single through the left side to load the bases again, Casey McGehee drove home the tying run with a single, but Braun was thrown out at the plate trying to score on a would-be sac fly from Mike Cameron, sending the game to extra innings.

Lopez left the game after the ninth inning with what appears to be a reaggravation of his previous hamstring injury. The ensuing double switch left the Brewers out of position players, which would later force Todd Coffey to be left in to hit for himself.

After Trevor Hoffman pitched a scoreless tenth, Todd Coffey shut down the Reds offense in the 11th and 12th innings before allowing home runs to Joey Votto and Laynce Nix (his second of the game) while trying to close out a third inning. Daniel Ray Herrera retired Kendall, Alcides Escobar and Yovani Gallardo (pinch hitting) in order in the bottom of the 13th to end the game.

Washington Nationals Win 5-4 On Lazy Toss By Cincinnati Reds.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 21:59:46 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher John Lannan throws against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning during a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Willingham's Hustle Wins The Series For DC!!!

• Ryan Zimmerman spent the majority of this afternoon's series finale with Cincinnati Reds on the bench, but the Washington Nationals' "Interim" Manager Jim Riggleman called on the Face of the Franchise with two on and two out in the eighth and the tying run standing at second in the form of Adam Dunn, who'd been hit by a pitch and moved into scoring position by Josh Willingham's one-out single. Two innings earlier, an RBI double by Willingham followed Dunn's leadoff double and scored Dunn from second to make it 4-3 Cincinnati, and now both were on again, with Zimmerman facing veteran left-hander Arthur Rhodes, against whom, Zimmerman was 2 for 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI so far in his career. Make it 3 for 5, Zimmerman hit a bloop single to right where defensive replacement Chris Dickerson missed on a diving play allowing Dunn to score and tie it, and when the Reds made a lazy throw back to the infield, Josh Willingham broke from the third, the throw came home quickly, but Hammer lowered the boom on Reds' catcher Ryan Hanigan and knocked the ball loose as he fell over home, 5-4 Nationals on pure hustle by Willingham and pure laziness by the Reds.

• DC lefty John Lannan was two-thirds of the way through his fifth scoreless frame with a 2-0 lead when he issued a two-out walk to Drew Sutton and an RBI single to Joey Votto, bringing up the unstoppable Jonny Gomes, who got a two-strike two-seamer inside from Lannan and lifted it to left and out of the park for his 4th HR in 4 games in this series and a 4-3 Cincy lead after five innings. DC right-hander Jason Bergmann finished off the sixth and Jorge Sosa (W, 2-1) and Mike MacDougal (S, 13) held and closed the Nationals' 43rd win of '09. Lannan lasts 5.2 IP and surrenders 7 hits, 4 ER, 1 HR and 3 walks, collecting 2 K's and throwing 109 pitches, 70 for strikes.

Other Highlights:

• Wil Nieves - 3 for 4, with 3 singles to right field.

• Jonny Gomes - Game 1 - 3 for 4, 3 HR's, 5 RBI's.

- Game 2 - 1 for 3, 1 2B

- Game 3 - DNP

- Game 4 - 2 for 4, 1 HR, 3 RBI's.

--------------------------------------------

Weekend Total = 6 for 11, .545, 4 HR's, 1 2B, 8 RBI's.

• Washington takes 3 of 4 from Cincinnati, and the Nationals break even, going 3-3 on the 6-game trip through Atlanta, Georgia and Ohio. Nationals now 11-3 in their last 14, 15-7 in their last 22.

Nationals win, 5-4 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

Check Out The SB Nation's Cincinnati Reds Blog: Red Reporter GameThread.

"Game 118: Here comes The Judge!" - Doghouse.

BACKPAGE:

• E: 105.

• Taking The Suicide Out Of The Squeeze.

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 43-75.

BACKPAGE:

• E: 105

Ryan Zimmerman got a rest today, as mentioned above, and his fill-in at third, Ronnie Belliard, of course committed the Washington Nationals' 105th Error of 2009 on a routine grounder to short off Reds' shortstop Paul Janish's bat. Belliard charged in on the two-out roller and had it go right under his glove and into left field. Outcome: DC starter John Lannan gets Reds' catcher Ryan Hanigan swinging at the first pitch, and popping out to left. No damage done...this time.

• Taking The Suicide Out Of The Squeeze.

Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn led off the sixth with doubles, the second one a run-scoring hit for Willingham that brought the Nationals within one at 4-3 and left the tying run at second. Willingham took third on a wild pitch from Reds' righthander Justin Lehr, and all Elijah Dukes had to do was hit one in the air to tie it. Dukes K'd. Alberto Gonzalez was up next and he squared to bunt on the first pitch, Willingham was headed home, SUICIDE SQUEE-, but Lehr came inside and upstairs with a first-pitch curve, and Gonzalez...well...he ducked...he held the bat up, but he ducked, and instead of a suicide squeeze, Willingham was just dead. It's ruled caught stealing, but no one watching was letting Alberto Gonzalez off the hook, though, if you watch the play, the best he could have done with that pitch was to let himself get hit...

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At Cincinnati Reds. Game 118 Of 162.

Justin Lehr gets a fly ball to center from Nyjer Morgan to Willy Taveras for the first out of the afternoon. Cristian Guzman throws his bat at an 0-2 curve that he has no excuse for swinging at. Ronnie Belliard pops up over home, and the pitcher gets in third baseman Adam Rosales’ way and causes him to drop it. Adam Dunn takes a curve that bounces off his shin. Justin Lehr gets out of the inning when Josh Willingham grounds out to short...Reds’ leadoff hitter Willy Taveras pops out to right to start the bottom of the first. Drew Sutton grounds out to Guzman at short. Joey Votto gets called out on strikes after watching a two-strike fastball all the way in...

Elijah Dukes hits a sharp grounder to short that Paul Janish handles. Janish throws out Alberto Gonzalez after a backhand stab and throw. Wil Nieves pushes a two-out single through second, but John Lannan pops out to end the DC second...The dangerous Jonny Gomes goes back up the middle with a leadoff single. Wladimir Balentien works the count full, fouls off a few, but eventually flies out to left. Adam Rosales lines into Elijah Dukes’ glove. Paul Janish grounds to third and right under Ronnie Belliard’s glove. E: 105. Ryan Hanigan lines to left to end the second.

Nyjer Morgan grounds out to Drew Sutton at second. Cristian Guzman chips a 3-1 pitch out to second. Ronnie Belliard’s grounder jumps up at Adam Rosales, who makes the play and throws a laser to first...Lannan gets Justin Lehr swinging through a two-strike heater upstairs. Willy Taveras almost beats out a routine grounder to short. Drew Sutton pops out to the catcher to end the third.

Adam Dunn lines to right field through the shift for a leadoff double. Josh Willingham takes one for a ride, deeeeeep to left and into the upper deck!!! Two-run HR, 2-0 Nationals. Elijah Dukes flies out to right. Alberto Gonzalez pops out to Willy Taveras. Wil Nieves lines a two-out single to center to turn the lineup over, when John Lannan flies out to Taveras...Joey Votto lifts an 0-2 pitch to left for a leadoff single. Jonny Gomes lines out to center on a 2-2 pitch. Elijah Dukes catches the second out off Wladimir Balentien’s bat. Adam Rosales takes a two-out walk. Paul Janish grounds out to Gonzalez who takes the force at second.

Nyjer Morgan grounds out to Janish at short. Cristian Guzman lines out to left. Ronnie Belliard ends a quick frame with a routine grounder to third...Reds’ catcher Ryan Hanigan singles to center and takes second on Lehr’s sac bunt. A groundout from Willy Taveras moves Hanigan to third. Drew Sutton takes a two-out walk in front of Joey Votto, who gets jammed and pops to left, and has it drop in. 2-1 DC. Jonny Gomes gets a fastball on the inside corner and he destroys it, deeep to left and over the wall for a 3-run blast. 4-3 Reds. Lannan walks Wladimir Balentien with two down. Adam Rosales flies out to right to end the fifth.

Adam Dunn powers a double to right off the wall to start the Nationals’ sixth. Josh Willingham bounces one off the out-of-town scoreboard in left. Dunn scores, 4-3 Reds. Elijah Dukes up, and Willingham takes third on a wild pitch. Dukes K’s chasing. Alberto Gonzalez squares to bunt, but ducks on when the first pitch comes in high and tight, hanging Willingham out to dry on what was apparently a suicide squeeze attempt. Ugh. Gonzalez grounds out to end the top of the sixth...Lannan gets a weak fly to left from Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan flies to Morgan in center. Justin Lehr lines a double to the right field corner with two down. Dukes fights with it and is able to hold Lehr at second. Cristian Guzman gets to a chopper up the middle from Taveras, but his throw is off and Dunn makes a great play to save a run. Lannan’s out. Jason Bergmann on to face Drew Sutton. Taveras takes second without being challenged. Sutton gets a full-count slider from Bergmann and K’s chasing it.

Jared Burton takes over for the Reds in the seventh and gives up a leadoff single to Wil Nieves who rolls a single past first. Willie Harris flies out unproductively to left. Nyjer Morgan will face Daniel Ray Herrera. Morgan goes down chasing junk. Cristian Guzman flies out to Jonny Gomes in right to end the top of the inning...Joey Votto vs Jorge Sosa. Votto flies out to Willingham in right, Hammer shields his eyes and catches it. Jonny Gomes pops out behind the plate. Wladimir Balentien strikes out to end the seventh.

Ronnie Belliard grounds out on a 1-1 fastball from Nick Masset, who’s replaced by lefty Arthur Rhodes when Adam Dunn steps up. Dunn takes one off the jersey and takes a base. Josh WIllingham lines to right for a one-out single, Dunn to second. Elijah Dukes flies out to center on an 0-2 bender in on the fists. Ryan Zimmerman pinch hits, and lobs a liner over second, Chris Dickerson slides in and misses, Dunn scores, 4-4, and the Reds take their time throwing it in, and Hammer takes off for home, running the catcher and scoring, 5-4 Nationals. 5-4 Nationals!!! Wil Nieves grounds out to short...Adam Rosales flies out to Willingham in left. Paul Janish hits a one-out single to center. Ryan Hanigan flies out to center. Mike MacDougal’s on early. Chris Dickerson grounds out to Dunn at first.

Josh Bard flies out to center to start the ninth. Reds’ right-hander Carlos Fisher gets a grounder back to the mound from Nyjer Morgan. Cristian Guzman can’t hold up on a two-strike curve in the dirt...Willy Taveras vs MacDougal. Taveras pops out to second. Drew Sutton grounds to third, Ryan Zimmerman fields, spins and throws to first to get the second out. Joey Votto K’s swinging over a 1-2 fastball outside. Nationals win, 5-4 final.

Nationals now 43-75.

Who loses to the losers? Reds fall, 5-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 21:10:44 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Though he didn't get his third win, Justin Lehr did still have a quality start. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Josh Willingham. Ryan Zimmerman hit the two run base hit to win the game, but Willingham went 3-4 at the plate with a double and a home run, scoring twice and driving in three runs.

Key Plays

The game was scoreless until the fourth inning, when Adam Dunn led off with a double, and Willingham followed with his 19th home run of the year. The Reds would have trouble getting those two out all game.
Often a lead of any size seems too daunting to overcome for the Reds, but in the fifth inning they battled back. Ryan Hanigan led off with a single and Lehr sacrificed him to second. Hanigan went to third on a groundout by Willy Taveras. Drew Sutton then walked, and Joey Votto continued to actually play baseball by hitting a single to the outfield to drive in Hanigan. Up stepped Jonny Gomes, who's been enjoying Washington pitching. BAM! Over the fence went the baseball, and a 2-0 deficit had turned into a 4-2 lead.
In the sixth inning, the Dunn-Willingham combination bit Lehr again, as they both hit doubles to lead off the inning. Dunn's run made the score 4-3, and a wild pitch by Lehr put Willingham on third base with no outs. Fortunately, he was caught stealing home, and the inning passed without further damage.
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Lehr hit a double, and Willy Taveras singled, then stole second. Runners on second and third with a chance to add some Great American Insurance runs, but Drew Sutton struck out.
Dusty turned to his bullpen in the seventh inning, using Jared Burton and Danny Ray Herrera. Then in the eighth, Nick Masset came in to retire Ronnie Belliard before giving way to Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes then hit Adam Dunn with a pitch, gave up a single to Josh Willingham, and then pinch hitter Ryan Zimmerman hit a dying quail out to right field. Chris Dickerson, who replaced Gomes as part of a double switch (even though Balentien had just batted, and Gomes - our only power threat - was due to come up 4th in the ninth inning), couldn't make the shoestring catch and instead deflected the ball back in towards the infield. Drew Sutton came out half-heartedly to retrieve it and lob the ball back in, but Willingham alertly flew around the bases to take advantage and scored from first. Two runs, and the Reds had squandered the lead.

FanGraphs

Other Notes

Arthur Rhodes got the loss, his first decision of the year.
Adam Dunn was hit by a pitch twice in this game. For the series, he went 4-8 with two doubles, a home run, six walks, five runs scored, and those two HBPs.
Reds pitchers allowed no walks in this game.
The Reds only have seven more wins than the Nationals. Washington won the season series, 4-3.
Josh Willingham's 19th homer gave the Nats three players with more home runs than Reds leader Jay Bruce's 18. Dunn has 31 and Ryan Zimmerman has 24. Votto and Phillips both have 17 and Gomes's blast today gives him 15 - in 196 plate appearances. He has four in his last three games.

Final - 8.16.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	5	7	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	8	1
WP: Jorge Sosa (2 - 1) SV: Mike MacDougal (13) LP: Arthur Rhodes (0 - 1)

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