SB Nation - Jeff Gogal

The Old Folks Home: First Base This Decade

SC — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:33:39 -0000

First base often times is a place where you can "hide" a guy that can hit but doesn't have much athleticism. There are exceptions; Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols are both outstanding first basemen in every way, as is Colorado's Todd Helton. There have been many athletic guys positioned at first for various reasons. Steve Garvey threw like my grandma, for instance.

This decade, the Orioles have had all sorts of problems. The losing started in 1998, but it has truly cemented itself in the 2000s. A couple losing years happen to any franchise, even the great ones. But the Orioles not only haven't had a winning season this decade, they haven't come close.

One of the issues has been first base. Traditionally you get a guy that can rake over there. The Orioles have instead chosen to fill the position with old fogies, has-beens and PR disasters.

Will Clark is one of my favorite players, but when the Orioles signed him after the 1998 season to replace Rafael Palmeiro, we didn't get the guy who'd been such a phenomenal and tremendously overlooked hitter. We got a broken down shell of the guy Will Clark used to be in San Francisco and Texas.

When healthy, "The Thrill" still hit -- he batted .303/.395./.482 in 1999 (294 plate appearances) and .301/.413/.473 in 2000 (310 plate appearances) before he got sent to St. Louis to fill in for the injured Mark McGwire. Clark destroyed NL pitching for the Cards and helped them get to the playoffs. He then retired gracefully.

Clark was entering his age 35 season when the Orioles signed him. He had been healthy in 1998, but prior to that the red flags were everywhere. We all knew he wasn't the guy he was in his early Giants days, but we didn't even get the guy that played in Texas:

Year	Team	Games Played	WARP3
1994	Texas	110	5.0
1995	Texas	123	3.8
1996	Texas	117	2.6
1997	Texas	110	3.3
1998	Texas	149	3.0
1999	Baltimore	77	2.1
2000	Baltimore	79	2.5

Note of course that 1994 (114 games) and 1995 (144 games) were strike-shortened seasons. He was healthy in those seasons, but since they were short 38 or 21 games, it is what it is. '94 particularly might have been a different story with the extra games.

When Clark got traded, the team handed over the first base job to Chris Richard, who did not come over from the Cardinals in the Clark trade, which netted us Jose Leon on July 31, 2000. Richard actually was acquired on July 29, 2000 with Mike Nussbeck in exchange for Mike Timlin. We really did all we could to help St. Louis out in 2000.

Richard had a power surge in his end-of-season audition, slugging .563 with 13 homers in 199 at-bats. He was the Opening Day DH in 2001 and struggled to stay in the lineup. A couple years later he had been traded to Colorado for Jack Cust, whose glove needs glue in it to be playable and never got a fair shake with the O's. Shortly after that he was out of the league.

Who was the Opening Day first baseman for the 2001 O's? David Segui, of course, the 34-year old ex-Oriole we signed to a four-year deal.

The Segui deal is one of the overlooked bonehead moves of the decade. After the Clark health fiasco and the Albert Belle mess, the Orioles picked up Segui for about $7 million per season. Segui had played in 140+ games exactly three times in 11 years, while bouncing through eight organizations (Orioles, Mets, Expos, Mariners, Blue Jays, Rangers and Indians).

Yeah, he could hit some. But he was also 34 years old with a spotty history.

To the shock of literally nobody, Segui played in 82, 26, 67 and 18 games in his second run in Charm City. He was paid $27,762,895 for this service.

With Segui a non-entity and Richard a bust, Jeff Conine was the regular first baseman from 2001-03. Conine was barely passable as an everyday first baseman, and that wasn't his fault. After all, that was supposed to be Mr. Reliable, David Segui. He was pretty good in 2001, banged up and not very effective in 2002, and traded in 2003.

In '02, Jay Gibbons got to play some first base, and he broke out with a 28-homer season. We might give Gibby some guff now, but he was a genuinely nice Rule 5 pickup by the Orioles. He did more than you can expect of any Rule 5 guy, really. Gibbons was bad in the outfield and actually worse at first base, so he never stuck. He was another guy who got hurt a lot, anyway.

In true Oriole fashion, the team refused to learn from the Clark and Segui mistakes and signed 39-year old Rafael Palmeiro to play first base in 2004, part of the influx of new offensive talent with Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez. This was a crummy idea from day one that got worse as Palmeiro embarrassed himself, the organization, and baseball in general in 2005. Here's why it was a bad idea from day one, though. Let's say Palmeiro really broke out in 1991 as an offensive star:

Year	Team	OPS+	HR
1991	Texas	155	26
1992	Texas	123	22
1993	Texas	150	37
1994	Baltimore	136	23
1995	Baltimore	145	39
1996	Baltimore	132	39
1997	Baltimore	113	38
1998	Baltimore	144	43
1999	Texas	159	47
2000	Texas	137	39
2001	Texas	141	47
2002	Texas	146	43
2003	Texas	117	38

The Orioles made the mistake of assuming that the home run totals meant that Palmeiro wasn't declining as he sauntered merrily toward 40. They were very, very wrong, and his final two seasons in Baltimore hashed that out: 108 OPS+ both years, with home run totals of 23 and 18, and the 23 took a bit of a late-season surge. Let's not even really go into THE GIANT STEROIDS ISSUE.

When Palmeiro was quietly released and all but taken out back and shot as far as the Orioles are concerned, what did they do next?

Of course! They signed 34-year old Kevin Millar! Now I love Kevbo, I really do. I'll always remember him fondly because unlike the other old farts we're talking about here, he went out and played his best. He didn't get hurt, he didn't drag everyone's name through the mud. He just played. He was a leader on and off the field and I enjoyed him.

But calling him successful in Baltimore is a stretch. He OPS+'d 111, 106 and 87. That's not "happenin'" as a first baseman.

Now he's gone. He should be, and he is. They made the right call. And with no one in line -- not one single viable first base prospect in the system, after all these years -- the job goes to Aubrey Huff, who turned 32 in December.

The good news is that they didn't go out and sign Huff. They did that a couple years ago when it didn't make any sense. The fact that Huff had a remarkably good 2008 at the plate does not retroactively make his signing in the 2006-07 offseason a better one. It didn't make sense and was the product of a front office that didn't know what the hell they were doing and were making last gasp attempts at a "competitive" team by luring Huff and Jay Payton, who were both veterans on the decline.

Huff was great last year. He's unlikely to repeat. What's more bothersome is the fact that there STILL is not a viable first base prospect in the system. Brandon Snyder's glove is terrible and he's got a lot of hitting to do to make up ground. Billy Rowell was thought to likely be a first baseman and he's been brutal so far in the minors. Both have time. Both are young. I agree with that. And sure, maybe Nolan Reimold could play first base and that fixes everything, but he's been an outfielder his entire career and has had injury troubles of his own.

This is a position that has been neglected. Third base has the same problem, but thankfully Melvin Mora has been able to reliably man the hot corner for the last five years.

First base is the Oriole position of Steady Eddie, Boog and Gentleman Jim, the first big-time Oriole bopper. Between the reigns of Powell and Murray there was Lee May, who was sort of like if you took this decade of Oriole first baseman and boiled it down into one guy. But this has gone on a lot longer, and there ain't no Eddie Murray on his way here.

To be fair, the team did try their best to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason. And this whole first base black hole is one of the reasons that it did make sense. There is nobody that's going to be ready to take control of first base in the foreseeable future. Huff might be fine, but given his age, he's a stop-gap. What happens when his contract's up? Who then? Carlos Delgado?

It's an area that needs to be addressed in the coming drafts, or they might have to look around for a blocked first base guy in someone else's system. Clearly, free agency has not been kind to the Orioles as far as first basemen go.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:26:46 -0000

Some things to read while getting your clothes out of the dryer.

Easily the biggest Brewer news of the day happened far from Arizona. Ryan Braun, playing for Team USA in the WBC, left yesterday's game with soreness in his side. (h/t FanShot) It doesn't sound like it's expected to be serious.

Meanwhile, Braden Looper is expected to throw a simulated game this morning, his last one before pitching a minor league game and then a Cactus League game sometime around March 24.

While Looper works his way in, Tim Dillard, Nick Green and Omar Aguilar are among six pitchers on their way out, having been optioned back to minor league camp. Dillard, who will apparently work as a starter this season, made the most of his last day in camp, entertaining teammates with his Harry Caray and Ed Sedar impressions.

Also in minor league camp, Chris Capuano continues to work on his recovery from his second Tommy John surgery. Sounds like things are going well, but he won't be stretched out enough to start games until mid-May.

Some visual evidence from this weekend's action:

Bill Hall's calf is better. Now, why is he sliding head first in spring training?
Lorenzo Cain shows off his home run trot.
You may not have heard of Brent Krause, but he left an imprint in the wall for you to remember him by.

J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun each took first place in Crawfish Boxes' NL Central positional rankings at shortstop and left field, respectively. Largely because of contributions from Hardy and Braun, David Pinto of Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers' probable lineup is good for 4.71 runs per game this season, up from 4.63 last season.

Dale Sveum is hoping to get even more production out of his hitters by cutting down on strikeouts.

Speaking of projections and predictions, Baseball Analysts has their NL Central Preview up. All three participants think the Cubs will win the division by 10 games or more.

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has been spending some time around Brewer camp, and has ten Brewer prospects to watch, along with an overview of the system that's worth a read.

Notes from other camps:

Cubs: Signed Esteban German to a minor league deal.
Giants: May be interested in ~~derailing their youth movement~~ signing Ivan Rodriguez to compete for a job at third base.
Mariners: Claimed Jesus Delgado off waivers from the Marlins.
Marlins: Released Jay Gibbons.
Mets: Claimed Fernando Nieve off waivers from the Astros.
Nationals: Signed Julian Tavarez to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed Chris Snelling to a minor league deal, and also Duaner Sanchez.
Red Sox: Julio Lugo will have arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely not be ready for Opening Day.
Rockies: Signed Lew Ford to a minor league deal.

Some day we might look back at the players of today in a similar light, but this seems like an extreme example: Hal McCoy has the story of former Red Buddy Gilbert, who left baseball in 1959 over a contract dispute. He and the Reds were $200 apart.

Baseball Musings also previewed the offense of the 2009 Pirates, and projects them for .3 runs per game less than 2008, or almost 50 fewer runs this season.

The Cardinals organization checked in at #21 in FanGraphs organizational rankings joining the Pirates, Reds and Astros to give the NL Central four of the bottom nine teams.

If you're out in Arizona this spring and want to make sure you're not healthy enough to leave, check out Mariner beat writer Larry Stone's review of The Heart Attack Grill.

Oh, and according to Tim Kurkijian, David Eckstein's wife, Ashley Eckstein, is the voice of Darth Vader.

Drink up.

First round of camp changes for the Marlins

craig — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 19:16:47 -0000

The Florida Marlins reduced the number of players in the major league camp, as expected.

The Marlins announced their first batch of roster moves today, including the release of outfielder Jay Gibbons.

In addition, right-handers Mike Wood and Jose Ceda, catchers Miguel Fermin and Kyle Skipworth, third baseman Matt Dominguez and outfielder Michael Stanton were reassigned to minor league camp. Outfielder Jai Miller was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans.

Gibbons got his outright release to give him a chance to catch on with another club. The Marlins probably felt that they were satisfied with their depth in the outfield and didn't see any reason to hold on to him for insurance. In other words, the young kids could get the job done if worse came to worse.

In the case of Mike Wood, the Marlins are sending to minor league camp for insurance should something happen to one of the short relievers in the bullpen. He is veteran and sometimes a veteran's experience is better suited for a short term call up.

The catchers were sent to the minor league camp because they need catchers to receive the pitches from the minor league pitchers. This happens every year when the minor leaguers report and the big camp is scaled down.

Ceda is working out shoulder problems and hopefully learning that a vegetable is your friend.

As far as the others go, their time will come but it is still in the future. And in some cases the very near future.

This day in LSB history

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 00:00:08 -0000

Three years ago today, we talked about the Orioles giving Jay Gibbons a four year, $21 million contract, and the problem with overpaying marginal players on multi-year deals.

Gibbons, incidentally, was released before the 2008 season, with two years left on his deal.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:56:17 -0000

Some things to read while waiting for your Calvin & Hobbes model toboggan.

One small step was taken towards payroll certainty yesterday, as the Brewers reached an agreement with J.J. Hardy on a one year deal worth $4.65 million. It's been noted in the comments, but it's still worth noting how far the arbitration process is from assessing a player's actual value: This is Hardy's second arbitration year, and yet he will still make less than two-thirds of what Prince Fielder will make in his first arbitration year.

Of course, both could lend some money to Gabe Kapler, who signed a 1 year/$1 million deal with the Rays. DRaysBay estimates Kapler will be worth about .75 wins in 2009...and also thinks Gabe Gross is being shown a clear path towards the door. In other news, Guillermo Mota is a Dodger again.

Trevor Hoffman isn't as young as he used to be, but has his stuff held up over time? Dixieflatline takes a look over at The Hardball Times. Perhaps there's room for some optimism.

Behold life on both ends of the spectrum: One Ryan Braun is one of baseball's elite outfielders, drafted ninth in FakeTeams' mock fantasy draft. The other Ryan Braun was recently released by the Royals, and will be a non-roster invitee for the White Sox.

Three minor notes today:

The Brewers are considering abandoning their "less is more" theory and re-opening a Dominican training academy. They're currently the only team without one.
In the closest vote yet, Brad Nelson leads Tim Dillard by two votes and Zach Braddock by seven votes in the balloting to determine Community Prospect #14. Voting closes at noon.
Another candidate for #14, Alexandre Periard, is interviewed over at Right Field Bleachers.

Hall of Fame voting is in and, for Brewer fans, it's largely the expected result. Both Greg Vaughn and Dan Plesac join this list of players who appeared on the ballot but received no votes. Jesse Orosco narrowly avoided the list, appearing on one ballot.

'Tis the season to talk about projections...but my guess is we won't be spending a lot of time on this one: Walkoff Walk has unveiled The BONILLAs, grouping players by age. Follow the link for their...well, I guess it's a preview, of Jason Kendall.

On the hot stove:

Angels: May have interest in acquiring Jermaine Dye from the White Sox.
Astros: Re-signed Jose Valverde to a one-year deal worth $8 million.
Braves: Are believed to have offered Derek Lowe a four-year deal worth $60 million.
Marlins: Signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal.
Mets: Are believed to have offered Oliver Perez a three-year deal worth around $30 million.
Pirates: Reportedly will not bring Doug Mientkiewicz back for 2009.

So let's say you're Major League Baseball, and for whatever reason you've decided you'd like to get into the restaurant business. You've got 30 MLB cities and several other options open...so why would you choose Tokyo? It's an odd move.

Speaking of odd moves, someone designed the Mets' Citi Field uniform patch for 2009 while looking at a pizza box.

Oh, and thanks for stopping by to share my inevitable decline in productivity.

Drink up.