SB Nation - Jose Molina

Catcher defense and 'Diamondview'

Travis G — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 01:31:06 -0000

There's great work being done by our fellow SBN bloggers. Driveline Mechanics broke down catcher's defense. It's one aspect that is so hard to quantify, and although it's not the end-all-be-all, it might be the best system in place right now.

Frankie Cervelli was, unsurprisingly, the best Yankee catcher, despite playing just 42 games. He saved 3.1 runs, good for 14th (out of 114). Jose Molina was actually a below average catcher, costing the Yankees 1.1 runs (ranking 82nd). Jorge Posada finished almost dead last, costing his team 5.9 runs, good for fifth worst in baseball.

The Yankees should feel confident in Cervelli backing up Posada next year. The only question is: how much will he hit? Can it really be worse than Molina (.217/.292/.268)?

Beyond the Box Score analyzed every Yankee starter, resulting in a beautiful compilation of each player's combined attributes. Here's Derek Jeter compared to the average shortstop:

The numbers represent the percentile. For example, Jeter's on-base skills were better than 95% of other shortstops.

It's a great visual way to quickly see how a player stacks up against his competition.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:03:38 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

It appears Claudio Vargas was never photographed as a Brewer. He'll get another chance to show up in an AP photo in 2010.

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Some things to read while simulating a sunrise.

Claudio Vargas is expected in Milwaukee for his physical late in the day today, so we can expect an official announcement on his contract sometime late this afternoon. Vargas had to return from the Dominican Republic, where he just reported to winter ball a few weeks ago and has yet to allow an earned run in four relief appearances, including two saves. Since he's only logged 6.1 innings of work, he might head back down there after the physical.

Until last season, Vargas had thought of himself as a starter temporarily pitching out of the bullpen, but Adam McCalvy has the story of how a late-season matchup against Albert Pujols changed his mind and caused him to embrace his new role.

Once the Vargas signing is official, the Brewer 40 man roster will be full. Tom H. engaged in a little rosterbation and notes the team is pretty much set going into spring training, barring an injury or trade.

With a tight roster, apparently there's no room for Seth McClung. McClung tweeted that the Brewers sent an email to his agent letting him know they're not interested in pursuing a deal to bring him back as a free agent. He's also looking to sell his house in Florida, if you're in the market.

Meanwhile, Adam McCalvy posted a correction to an earlier report on the incentives in LaTroy Hawkins' contract: they're actually tied to appearances and games finished, not saves. As TheJay noted, the collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tying incentives to "skill" stats, but allows them for playing time.

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Chuck Lofgren's hometown paper has a story about his opportunity to pitch for the Brewers this spring. They also have this quote, which might remind you of another former Brewer reliever/pinch hitter:

"I don't prepare for spring training like a hitter would, but I do still get in the cage,'' Lofgren said. "I can still hit. I never really lost it.''

Months into the offseason, the market hasn't heated up quite as much as one might have expected for second basemen. FanGraphs has a look at the guys that still remain on the market, including Felipe Lopez, and the possibility that they'll have to change positions to find work this offseason. I still think Lopez would have turned down arbitration in search of full-time work, but perhaps the Brewers knew something we didn't in terms of the market for his services.

Adam McCalvy also picked up on that note, and his ensuing post on Lopez included this note regarding the Brewer payroll for 2010:

Melvin says he still has some flexibility left over to troll the market in January and February for bargains. If he doesn't find any deals to his liking, Melvin could retain that flexibility into June and July to make a pre-trade deadline deal.

I guess the possibility of another signing shouldn't be ruled out.

Have the Brewers done enough to improve themselves this offseason? Reds Blog handicapped the 2010 NL Central, and said the Brewers "may be slightly better than the Reds, but not much."

John Steinmiller and Caitlin Moyer continue to give us looks into the offseason jobs of the Brewer front office staff: Today they have a look at the work being done by Aleta Mercer, Brewers Senior Director of Entertainment and Broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Timber Rattlers' front office staff still has some time on their hands, as demonstrated by the five minute battle for superiority between ketchup and mustard in this week's episode of The Offseason.

The Timber Rattlers are also looking for your help to select a shortstop for their 15th anniversary team. Follow this link to read about the candidates, then click over to the front page to vote.

Speaking of voting, we have two of the closest races to date for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to cast a vote for a backup catcher, where Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 13 votes. You also have until 4 pm tomorrow to cast a vote for our fourth outfielder, where Carlos Lee leads Scott Podsednik by 28 votes, with Jeromy Burnitz lurking over his shoulder.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Signed infielders Doug Mientkiewicz and Angel Berroa to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed Ricky Nolasco to a $3.8 million, one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Mets: Signed Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi to a two year deal worth $3 million.
Padres: Signed outfielder Chris Denorfia to a minor league deal.

Here's another research project for a reader looking for something to do: Max Marchi of The Hardball Times looks at the difference in pitches CC Sabathia threw to three Yankee catchers in 2009, showing he appeared to prefer to throw sinkers to Jose Molina. I'd be curious to see if there are any disparities in pitches thrown to Mike Rivera and Jason Kendall last season.

There seem to be enough sites discussing it so I'm not going to turn the Mug into a daily receptacle for notes on Hall of Fame voting, but I did find these notes interesting:

Tom H. submitted his ballot yesterday, and had nine players on it. He didn't name them but based on this argument for Bert Blyleven, it's safe to assume he's one of them.
Followers on Twitter convinced Jeff Fletcher of AOL to change his mind and vote yes for Tim Raines.
Rob Neyer reminded us that some Hall of Fame voters still don't get it.

Speaking of Neyer, earlier this week I mentioned his post on the top 100 players of the decade, which included Corey Koskie (among others), but not Prince Fielder. Tangotiger has a look at Koskie's career, and his somewhat surprising route to 22 WAR in slightly more than five full seasons.

If that's not enough stat content for you today, Big League Stew has everything you always wanted to know about WPA.

There may be snow on the field on or near Opening Day, but at least Target Field will have functional bathrooms. Hall of Famer and Twins exec Tony Oliva was recently trapped in a Metrodome bathroom when the handle fell off the door.

I've heard of players doing all kinds of things to break slumps, but Hee Seop Choi might have topped them all by climbing Mount Seorak.

On this day in 1985, the Brewers traded two minor leaguers to the Giants for Rob Deer. Long before Russell Branyan was king of the Three True Outcomes, Deer was a 3TO Pioneer, hitting .229/.329/.450 with 333 walks, 137 home runs and 823 strikeouts in five seasons as a Brewer. Those 137 home runs were the tenth most in baseball during that stretch.

Happy birthday today to 2009 Nashville Sound Patrick Arlis, who turns 29.

Oh, and I'm hoping Garrett Broshuis will eventually share the plans for his Radioactive Cardboard Catcher.

Drink up.

Rival Hot Stoves: Red Sox

jscape2000 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:00:31 -0000

by Stew Milne - AP

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The Red Sox are chasing the Yankees again, and once again both front offices are looking at the same assets.

1. The Lineup Right Now:

Martinez

Youkilis

Pedroia

Lowell

Lowrie

Anderson

Ellsbury

Drew

Ortiz

Beckett

Lester

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Buchholz

Bard

Okajima

Ramirez

Papelbon

2. Prospects to Watch:

Josh Reddick- an outfielder with the speed to play all 3 spots, Reddick's bat didn't perform well in his September call up. HIs high batting average has carried him quickly through the minors (only 18 games at AAA and less than 90 games at AA). He's a see it- hit it type, and I wonder if his defense is strong enough to make Jacoby Ellsbury a trade chip in the quest for a certain high profile pitcher from North of the Border.

Michael Bowden- the 23 year old compares to IPK- high 80s to low 90s fastball, plus command of fastball and curve. He saw 16 innings of work in Boston (8G, 1 start), be he pitched very well in AAA Pawtucket (24 starts, average 5.1IP, 106H, 44BB, 88K). As a trade chip or as the first replacement starter, Bowden is a part of the Red Sox future.

Lars Anderson- the big first baseman had a terrible season in 2009, hitting a Jose Molina-esque .233/.328/.345 in 119 games in his second year at AA. He'll need a big bounce back to put his career back on track.

Matchup with the Yankees:

Victor Martinez's defense as a full time catcher will make Posada look like Bill DIckey. The right side of the infield will stand up with anybody in the league, but the Sox suffered through a season of near replacement level on the left side, so it's no surprise that the front office has wondered if their Gold Glove 2B might not play a good enough SS to sign or trade for a strong second baseman.

At the moment the Red Sox have the stronger rotation. Adding Halladay, or adding Lackey and seeing Halladay go anywhere but New York, would make the Red Sox the AL favorites.

The Quick ReLoad:

The Red Sox took $12M off the books before the start of the 2009 season. Another $40M came off at the end of season. If Boston has only $30M to spend, that's enough to make the second best team in the AL even more imposing.

A left fielder is a must-have, but there are a slew of available left fielders, and all of them could handle the small patch of grass in the shadow of the Green Monster.

Either the Red Sox have to acquire a shortstop, or they have move Pedroia and choose from the relatively stronger crop of second basemen.

Wrap-up:

The Sox got basically nothing from Matsuzaka, and replaced his quality with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Even if a trade for Halladay weakened the Red Sox for a decade, it would make them a frightening team to face in 2010, both over the regular season and in a playoff series.

My sincerest hope is that Theo learned nothing from his lightning in a bottle 2009 approach. Another season of Nick Green at short and Tim Wakefield as the #3 pitcher would make me a happy Yankee. My fear is that the $50M that have come off the books in the last 2 seasons is on its way back into the payroll.

Projected WAR and Contract Values for Free Agent Position Players

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 06:15:03 -0000

Combining a couple of my previous article on UZR projections (now updated with UZR/150 values) and the wOBA to WAR conversion, I have created a spreadsheet to project 2010 WAR values of most FA hitters and determine how much money should be spent for the player's production for a multi-year contract.

Here are the 20 top projected free agent position players:

Rank	Name	2010 Projected WAR	Position	UZR/150	OBP	SLG	PA
1	Matt Holliday	4.7	LF	5	0.376	0.510	646
2	Chone Figgins	3.0	3B	7	0.375	0.367	603
3	Adrian Beltre	2.9	3B	10	0.322	0.448	544
4	Joe Crede	2.6	3B	13	0.317	0.439	410
5	Troy Glaus	2.4	3B	2	0.351	0.436	461
6	Marco Scutaro	2.4	SS	1	0.362	0.376	511
7	Placido Polanco	2.3	2B	6	0.338	0.398	594
8	Jason Bay	2.3	LF	-10	0.367	0.486	622
9	Miguel Tejada	2.1	SS	-4	0.330	0.430	603
10	Mike Cameron	2.0	CF	5	0.321	0.420	582
11	Marlon Byrd	1.9	CF	0	0.335	0.433	513

13	Johnny Damon	1.8	LF	0	0.355	0.430	597
14	Felipe Lopez	1.7	2B	2	0.342	0.377	628
15	Nick Johnson	1.7	1B	-1	0.395	0.407	552
16	Mark DeRosa	1.7	3B	-1	0.335	0.416	543
17	Bengie Molina	1.6	C	0	0.288	0.421	486
18	Orlando Cabrera	1.5	SS	1	0.326	0.374	631
19	Coco Crisp	1.5	CF	3	0.342	0.386	430
20	Miguel Olivo	1.4	C	0	0.276	0.433	416

Instructions and assumption on using the spreadsheet after the jump.

Assumptions/Instructions

UZR/150 values were used.
Projected hitting values are from Chone's projected batting values. I didn't need to have BA included, but I kept it there to make the cut and paste easier from Chones projections page.
To calculate the the wOBA, I used (1.66 * OBA + SLG)/3 = wOBA where the 1.66 from determining what multiple helped to predict the wOBA best for all qualified 2009 hitters.
I used 4.4 million dollars per WAR as the rate to paid for all years the player signs. The user can feel free to change these values to what ever value they want.
Each player was projected to age by 0.5 WAR per year not matter what their age is currently. Most are over the age of 31, so I don't see this as a problem. If the user want to change these values in the cells, feel free.
To get the ideal contract value for the projected WAR, goto column Y on the spreadsheet. Columns Y, Z and AA are the values projected for a 1 year contract in 2009 using the above assumptions. These values continure for up to eight years. For example, a 6 year contract for Matt Holliday would be worth 90.4 millions dollars according to the methods I used in the spreadsheet.
Players can be added and values changed as the user see fit.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Six for Six

dajafi — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:26:33 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

The man who gave us Game Six. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

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We have exactly six hours, as I write this, before the scheduled first pitch of World Series Game Six. Below, a half-dozen thoughts, most of which have been bubbling for a few days now, to pass at least a bit of that time:

Tonight's pitching matchup, in which future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez (age 38) goes for the Phillies against all-time postseason wins leader Andy Pettitte (37) for the Yankees, is the first time two starters with a combined age of 75 or older have faced off in the Series since Game One of the 2005 Fall Classic between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, when two ex-Yankees, Roger Clemens (then 43) and Jose Contreras (allegedly 33) went at it. Pettitte's on three days' rest, Pedro is facing an augmented lineup compared to the one he saw in Game Two (when weak-hitting Jose Molina, not slugger Jorge Posada, was behind the plate), and it's gonna be cold. The game easily could become a battle of the bullpens, a scary prospect for both managers.
Phils second baseman Chase Utley has tied Reggie Jackson's World Series record with five home runs in the five games thus far. As several pundits have noted, there's a real chance that Utley could be named the Most Valuable Player of the Series even if the Yankees win: no one player has stood out for New York other than perhaps Johnny Damon, who's batting .381 and has scored five runs, including the Game Four winner; and closer Mariano Rivera, who has finished off all three Yankee wins to this point. (Hideki Matsui is batting .556 with two homers, but he was reduced to pinch-hitting for the three games in Philly; he has just nine at-bats.) Meanwhile, Utley hit two homers in each of the Phils' wins, has scored six times, leads all batters with eight RBIs, and is basically the only reason the Phils have generated any offense in light of Ryan Howard's epic slump and overall subpar hitting from Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez. If Pettitte pitches a great game tonight and gets the win, he'll be MVP with two victories in the Series--but if, say, the Yankees win a high-scoring game in which someone like Mark Teixeira (2 for 19 thus far) or Robinson Cano (3 for 18) is the big hitting star, while Utley goes 4 for 5 with another homer and a bunch of RBI, he'll probably by the MVP. This would be, at best, terribly awkward: for Chase Utley, the one downside of greatness is having to be recognized for his greatness. Imagine Fox's Ken Rosenthal saying, "Congratulations Chase, but your team lost--how do you feel?" You'll get either nothing or a response they'd better have on at least a five-second delay.

Neither manager has covered himself in glory this Series. As I've written here many times, I think Charlie Manuel is easily the greatest manager in Phillies history--but his in-game decisions hurt the team in each of the last four games. He went with Martinez too long in Game Two, made an inexplicable decision to pinch-hit helpless Eric Bruntlett in a big spot in Game Three and then left reliever Chad Durbin in too long when he obviously had no command, did the same with Brad Lidge in the nightmarish Game Four, and then futzed around with the outfield defensive alignment late in Game Five to near-disastrous effect. Maybe worse, he has a dead spot on his roster in the person of rookie lefty reliever Antonio Bastardo, who hasn't yet pitched in the Series and almost certainly won't unless the Phils are getting blown out; meanwhile, with Victorino hurting after getting hit on the hand early in Game Five, there's a chance he'll have to use Bruntlett, among the worst hitters in baseball, as his DH or left fielder in a win-or-die game tonight. I'd seriously rather see Cliff Lee or Hamels--both lefties, mind you--in the lineup against Pettitte.
Meanwhile, Yankee manager Joe Girardi failed to leverage the advantage he earned by his team winning three of the first four games, starting talented but erratic righty A.J. Burnett on short rest for the house-money Game Five, watching him get pummeled, and now having to sweat out the 37 year-old Pettitte doing the same tonight. If he falls short, Game Seven would go to ace CC Sabathia, on double-short rest--a situation in which the Phillies knocked him around in the 2008 National League Division Series. Girardi's bullpen management has been questionable as well: heading toward the end of the Series, he really only can trust Rivera (who, distressingly for the Phils, probably is good for two innings tonight) and perhaps veteran lefty Damaso Marte and rookie righty David Robertson.
It hurts to admit this, but if the Yankees go on to win, the big turning point in the Series will have been the role reversals of Cole Hamels and Pettite in Game Three. Hamels took a 3-0 lead into the fourth inning, got a tough call on a full-count pitch to Teixiera that went for a walk, and then fell to pieces, allowing a controversial home run to Rodriguez that made it 3-2 and surrendering three more runs before getting pulled the next inning. It was Hamels' whole season writ small: bad luck or bad karma followed by bad pitching and a downward spiral he couldn't escape. (To be clear: I'm not slagging Hamels here. The guy was the single biggest reason we won it all last year; for that, from me, he has a lifetime pass.) Pettitte, by contrast, escaped near-disaster early on: he'd thrown 51 pitches and allowed three runs through two innings, but held the Phillies to one run over the next four on a night when, as he reportedly later told teammates, he had "nothing." I kind of hate the guy, as I do most ostentatiously religious athletes, but I can't deny that he pitched like a champion Saturday night.
There's a lot about the Yankees that baseball fans find irritating, from the eternal sense of entitlement among their fan base to the whining about balls and strikes and the innumerable, interminable mound conferences and other delaying tactics they've used in this Series. But what really turns my stomach about their push for a 27th world championship is the notion that they need to "win it for the Boss," ailing owner/tyrant George Steinbrenner. To put it mildly, this isn't a sympathetic guy: he's a convicted felon (for illegal campaign contributions to kindred spirit Richard Nixon) and a confirmed sexist--and this is even before you think about his depredations among team employees or his contributions to worsening baseball's competitive imbalance. As even Yankee great Don Mattingly acknowledged, he's less likable than Monty Burns. The Yankees, and their fans, should have enough reasons to crave victory beyond wanting to provide still more ego validation to a world-class asshole like Steinbrenner, who's probably too unwell to enjoy it anyway.

Meanwhile, the clock continues to wind toward 7:57pm and at least one more baseball game for the highest stakes.

Yanks take Game 2, take Pedro deep in 3-1 victory

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:33:57 -0000

Ahh, much better.

The Yankees beat the Phillies in a much-needed, if technically not "must-win" Game 2, with A.J. Burnett outdueling old friend Pedro Martinez.

The Phillies took an early 1-0 lead in the 2nd with an RBI single from Matt Stairs, but the Yanks answered in the 4th with a solo shot from Mark Teixeira. Two innings later, Hideki Matsui went yard to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead, and then they collectively abandoned the longball game in favor of the small ball one.

If we had lost that game, I would have undoubtedly been arrested, and they would have needed dental records to identify the first base ump's mangled body.

Something tells me this game is just a microcosm of how the rest of the series is going to go. Nip and tuck. Working the pitchers. No easy outs, no easy runs. I don't know if my heart can take it.

Admittedly, no one can say we teed off on the long-winded stepchild of the Yankees. He kept our bats frozen through 3 innings, save a single from Hideki. And I wouldn't dare publicly subscribe to this at the time, but the thought did cross my mind that if Pedro holds us scoreless and to one hit, I may have to walk into a pit of wild boars to take me out of my misery.

Fortunately, Tex saved me from this fate when he led off the bottom of the 4th with shot to right center. 'Bout time. I was like 8 minutes away from exploding into a "the Phillies have weighted the ball!" outburst. (Seriously, though. It felt like the whole bar had been possessed by Sterling, every shot looked like it was going to carry, inducing us all to jump to our feet in excitement only to see it caught no where near the warning track.)

With the score tied 1-1, everyone was breathing slightly easier. Slightly. A.J. continued to deal, and unlike his usual Good A.J. persona, he wasn't even throwing the occasional wildness. Over 7 unbelievably solid innings, he used 108 pitches to let up just 4 hits, walk 2, and strike out 9. NINE. Thank you a thousand times over, A.J.

The offense did little to help him out, though it never seemed as through Pedro was baffling them, per se. If anything, they might have been a little overeager to knock him around and hence were getting whiffed on giant cuts.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks added another run to their lead, and it really should have been a couple more runs, but a horrendous call ended the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Jorge Posada singled to score Brett Gardner (although his ribbie was regrettably not off Pedro, but I'll take it.)

Jeter made the first out of the inning when he did what every hot batter does with 2 strikes, runners on, in a playoff game where you only lead by 2: bunted. Naturally. Johnny Damon came up and hit a line drive to first which Ryan Howard sells as a catch despite its definite hop, umps buy it, Posada out at 2nd, Damon out with the catch.

Technically, it should have been a 4-1 game, with runners on 1st and 2nd and still 1 out, since Howard never even stepped on first. Eh, it's moot.

Mariano Rivera comes in for 6 outs and throws wayyy too many pitches en route to his 38th postseason save (39). Things started to get a little too close for comfort when he put on Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, with Chase Utley to deal with on only 1 out. Superman induces a double play, inning over.

The 9th went on without much of a hitch beyond Raul Ibanez's double. Mo struck out Matt Stairs to end the game. (Btw, I never noticed how much of a fat middle-aged Guiness-drinking, Mets-rooting blob Stairs looks like--that's the type of guy who bats cleanup in his bar softball league, not for a pro one.)

The series is tied at 1 game apiece, with a "travel" day tomorrow, then 3 games in Philly commence on Halloween. Great win tonight, Yanks. And special nod of gratitude for Jose Molina (yup, first time that sentiment has ever been uttered ever), for picking off Jason Werth in the 3rd. Maybe that was the weird kick in the pants the boys needed to start it up.

It's still our series. Here's to taking Philly by the jugular this weekend.

And what better time for bloodshed then October 31?

-CYC

World Series Game 2: What I want to see tonight

Ed Valentine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:49:48 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

New York Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner.

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What I want to see tonight starts with the New York Yankees knocking Pedro Martinez all over Yankee Stadium the way he knocked Don Zimmer around a few years back.

That's not really what I'm here to talk about right now, though. There are a couple of things I want to see from Manager Joe Girardi tonight, and I am not at all sure he will do either one.

I want to see Brett Gardner in center field, with Melky Cabrera in right and Nick Swisher playing cheerleader from the bench. I know what kind of weapon Girardi feels Gardner is off the bench, but the guy is way more than a pinch-runner. He's a terrific center fielder, a respectable hitter (.270 regular season, .345 OBP) and Girardi needs to remember he can help the Yankees in ways other than stealing second base. Swisher is still slumping, at .114 for the post-season. C'mon, Joe, give Gardner a chance before it's too late to matter.
I want to see Jorge Posada catching A.J. Burnett tonight. I could care less about all those numbers some of you will point to showing A.J. likes pitching to Jose Molina more than Posada. The Yankees are down 1-0 in this series. Lose tonight, and you can pretty much forget finding time to go to a parade in the Canyon of Heroes next week. There probably won't be one. The Yankees need their best lineup on the field tonight, and that means Posada instead of Molina. Posada is the Yankees No. 1 catcher, owner of four World Series rings and a borderline Hall of Famer (that's for a whole different discussion). Jose Molina is, well, Jose Molina -- the worst of the catching Molina brothers. In the most important game of the Yankee season to date, Posada MUST be in the lineup.
One final thing. I want to see Girardi with a quick, I mean very quick, hook for Burnett tonight. Lord knows what will happpen once Manic Joe gets into that bullpen -- we might run out of pitchers by the sixth inning -- but I don't want him to hesitate. As soon as 'bad A.J.' makes an appearance I want him outta there.

Living in the Limelight: Gregg Zaun's Free Agent Value

devil_fingers — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:27:28 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

I'm having a hard time locating your Z-Game, Wes.

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I'm worn out. I don't have anything to add to the playoff discussion, and it's still weeks until baseball-databank, etc. are ready to make things available. I have other stuff in the pipeline, but for now, in honor of his awesome Rogers Sports Net commentaries on the playoffs (and since we have some catcher defense numbers to go on for 2009), let's take a look at the potential free agent value of one of my favorite players (and I suspect he's a favorite of many others): Gregg Zaun. Are you ready to bring your Z-Game?

Gregg Zaun

#9 / Catcher / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-10

Weight: 205

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 14, 1971

I'm not sure what the market is like for catcher this offseason, but it seems like every year, guys like Paul Bako and Jose Molina get jobs. You know, guys who can't hit a lick, but have a reputation as "good glove men" or allegedly can "calls a good name," things which always seem to attach to catchers that...can't hit. While its true that defense is very important, and that catcher defense is hard to quantify, this might be a case where many clubs don't realize that their catcher also has to hit, and moreover, that even without injuries to their starter, that the backup is going to see significant time. Only four catchers started more than 130+ games this season at the position, and only 8 started 120+. So having a decent backup at the position is arguably more important there than at any other position, since you pretty much know that your start isn't going to be available for at least 40 games at that position, even if he's healthy.

Gregg Zaun, of course, became famously known years ago as the Practically Perfect Backup Catcher©. But, as the inventors of this notions discovered, given the general hitting ability (or lack thereof) among catcher, Zaun was actually a pretty decent starter. This ways years ago... Zaun is now advanced in age, and seems destined for a series of one-year contracts. But what is is true talent level?

Hitting: Zaun's not a horrible. He's not what he used to be, of course, but a .344 career OBP is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a catcher. What do we think his true wOBA talent is at the moment? From 2006-2009 his wOBAs have been .351, .324, .316, and .344. Adjusting for age, taking a weighted average and regressing to a league average (weighted by year and PA) wOBA of .330, we get a true talent level of a .325 wOBA, or about -2 runs (2 runs below average) per 700 PA.

Fielding: Catcher fielding is tough to quantify. For 2009, I've used my own numbers cited above. For 2005-2008 I've used Rally's numbers, prorated. I've then combined then with the Fans Scouting Report, and given a bit more weight to the FSR then I usually do, to take into account the problematic nature of the statistics. Zaun wasn't bad this season, being a bit above average, although Rally has him as being around 6-7 runs below average (prorated) in each season 2005-2008. The Fans are harder on him -- my translations have him as. -1.5 this season, -8 in 2008, -9 in 2007, and -4 in 2006. With regression of the numbers and the FSR combined, he seems like a -4 defender per 162 games.

Adding it all together: -2 hitting -4 fielding +12.5 positoin +25 AL replacement level * .75 playing time = 23 WAR - 0.5 aging penalty = 1.8 WAR player in 2010.

Not bad at all, considering Zaun made only $2M this pas season, and seems unlikely to get a raise. If, as usual, guys like Zaun go for cheap, some team is going to get a good deal on a part-time catcher who's defense isn't great (but isn't dreadful) and can get on-base. Not a bad backup for, say, Matt Wieters, huh?

They can't all be Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez, or even Yadier Molina. But they don't all have to be Miguel Olivo or Jason Varitek or even Rod Barajas, either. Let's see who's smart.

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

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That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Molina vs. Posada, round two

Travis G — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:00:33 -0000

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An(other) attempt to settle the Burnett/Molina/Posada soap opera follows. I wanted to calculate and assign a run value to Molina's catching and compare it to Posada's batting.

(This whole article assumes Burnett's superior pitching to Molina is real and not just chance. Tom Tango, who is on par with Bill James as far as SABRmetricians go, says there's something to it.)

A.J. Burnett's OPS Against this year with -

Jorge Posada: .775

Jose Molina: .658

For a difference of .117

With the assistance of THT's OPS Run graph, a team OPS of .650 roughly equals 650 runs/year, which (dividing by 162 games) averages to 4/game. A team OPS of .770 roughly equals 810 runs/year, or 5/game. So holding a team to a .650 OPS in a single game causes them to score about four runs. A .770 OPS leads to about five runs.

Since starters rarely pitch complete games, I had to figure out what percentage of the full game Burnett usually threw.

He averaged 27 batters faced (PA)/game this year (895 PA divided by 33 starts). The AL average for a full game was 38.55 PA/game.

27/38.55 = .7, meaning Burnett pitched for an average of 70% of the total game.

Holding hitters to the lower OPS of .650 (Burnett's OPS Against with Molina catching) - which means about four runs/game, I multiplied four runs by .7 (70%), which equals 2.8.

2.8 is the number of runs Burnett should average in a normal start with Molina catching (only counting the opponent's hitting, not their baserunning).

The higher OPS of .770 (Burnett's OPS Against with Posada catching) leads to five runs/game. That times .7 equals 3.5, which is the number of runs Burnett should average in a normal start with Posada catching (again, without accounting for baserunning).

That is a difference of .7 runs/game in favor of Jose Molina.

Now to their hitting

The good news is that Molina will only get 2-3 PA in game 2. As soon as Burnett is out, Posada will replace him in the lineup. So considering Molina will hit ninth, and he'll only go as long as Burnett (about 6-7 innings), he'll have a minimal offensive impact on the game.

Posada's 2009 OPS: .885

Molina's: .560, for a difference of .325.

Going back to the OPS Run graph, we know that a .100 difference in OPS is equal to about 235 runs/season (for a whole team). Since we're comparing individual players, the calculations must continue.

Since .100 OPS = 235 runs, and the difference between Molina and Posada is .325, we do this: 235 x 3.25 = 764 runs.

So a lineup of Posadas will score about 764 runs/season more than a lineup of Molinas. Then we divide 764 by 162 games = 4.7 runs/game (a lineup of Posadas will score 4.7 runs/game more than a lineup of Molinas). There are nine hitters in a game, so we divide 4.7 by 9 = .52 runs per game per hitter. The average hitter got 4.3 PA/game this season (38.55 PA/9 hitters), but since Posada will hit fifth or sixth, let's say he'll get an even four PA/game. .52 runs/game divided by 4 PA = .13 runs/PA. So Posada is worth .13 runs per PA more than Molina. That sounds about right.

If Molina gets 2 PA instead of Posada, it costs the Yankees .26 runs (3 PA costs them .39 runs), so the .7 runs better Burnett is with Molina more than offsets his lower offensive production. In fact, it would appear to give the Yankees anywhere from a .31 to a .44 run advantage. So the Yankees are about a third to a half a run better with Molina catching Burnett than Posada (if Molina only gets 2-3 PA in the game). Molina would have to get more than five PA (.7 divided by .13) for him to become less valuable than Posada. And all this doesn't even account for Molina's superior defense, both at blocking pitches in the dirt and at throwing out baserunners, which I'll try to quantify now:

Back to defense

Posada caught 785 innings this year. Molina caught 356.2 (almost half). So I'll equalize by multiplying Molina's stats by (785/356.2 =) 2.2 -

Posada had 7 errors. Molina had the equivalent of 2.2. Posada had 8 passed balls. Molina had 6.6. Posada had 41 wild pitches. Molina had 33. Both had the same caught stealing rate of 28%. And since it's nearly impossible to quantify the 'intimidation factor' of Molina's better arm (that prevents attempted steals), I won't account for that aspect.

So anyway, per 9 innings:

Errors - Posada .78, Molina .24

Passed balls - Posada .89, Molina .73

Wild pitches - Posada .47, Molina .39

Which means Posada allowed 2.14 'extra bases'/game. Molina allowed 1.36 'extra bases'/game (which is better).

Therefore, Posada allowed .78 'extra bases'/game more than Molina. How much is that worth in runs?

Each extra base is worth about .24 runs; .24 x .78 = .19. .19 x (Molina's time catching the game, 70%) .7 = .13. So .13 + (Molina's game-calling ability of) .7 = .83 runs, minus .13 runs/per PA Molina gets - does that make sense?

In other words, Molina's defense is worth +.13 runs/game, his 'Burnett game-calling' is worth +.7 runs/game, but his batting is worth negative .13 runs/PA (all relative to Posada).

So Molina's catching/defense is worth almost a full run more than Posada, but every PA he gets drops his value (though it would take more than six to make Posada the better choice):

(But again, we must remember this all assumes Burnett's superior pitching with Molina is real and more than just chance.)