SB Nation - Troy Patton

Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:59:42 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

3 months ago: Baltimore Orioles starter Brian Matusz delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Top 20 Baltimore Orioles Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade A: I don't see anything to complain about here. Could be something like a cross between Barry Zito and Mark Mulder when they were young.

2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: I like this guy a little more than most people, but I love the upside and I think the command will come around.

3) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B+: Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I'm pro-Britton.

4) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade B: I like Bell too, but I see him more as a solid regular than a future star.

5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-. Have always loved the upside, but durability and consistency remain concerns.

6) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-: I think he has a good bat, but not a GREAT one.

7) Matt Hobgood, RHP, Grade B-: Liked him a lot in high school, need more pro data before going higher.

8) Mychal Givens, SS, Grade B-: Great tools, grade is highly speculative at this point until we get some performance data. Can always try pitching if he doesn't hit.

9) Brandon Waring, 3B-1B, Grade C+: I like the power, but am unsure about the glove. Like Bell and Snyder, he seems more solid-ish than star-ish. Batting average and OBP may be issues.

10) Kam Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+: I am the Great Mickolio. I need control for my baseball. I have no changeup. Do you need fastball for your bullpen?

11) Luis Lebron, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.

12) Steve Johnson, RHP, Grade C+: Might get overlooked because of his boring name. Possible fourth starter type if the command is there.

13) Brandon Cooney, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.

14) Ryan Berry, RHP, Grade C+: A steal in the ninth round, IF his arm doesn't fall off due to the Rice injury curse.

15) Ashur Tolliver, LHP, Grade C+: Interesting southpaw arm with very good stuff, probably fits in the pen better than as a starter.

16) Caleb Joseph, C, Grade C: Might be a C+, could be convinced to raise this grade. Good power potential, defense is questionable.

17) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C: Arm problems have cut his stock drastically, but I wouldn't count him out just yet. Command still a strength.

18) Michael Ohlman, C, Grade C: Power potential draws lots of praise, but no pro data yet and defense is questioned.

19) Xavier Avery, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools outfielder with questionable bat, young enough to improve greatly.

20) Cameron Coffey, LHP, Grade C: Tommy John survivor, could rank much higher once we see how he recovers from surgery. Clocked as high as 95 MPH before injury.

OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Angle, OF; David Baker, RHP; Jesse Beal, RHP; Pedro Beato, RHP; Bobby Bundy, RHP; Jacob Cowan, RHP; Oliver Drake, RHP; Pat Egan, RHP; Pedro Florimon, SS; Eddie Gamboa, RHP; Randy Henry, RHP; Tyler Henson, 3B; L.J. Hoes, 2B; Rhyne Hughes, 1B; Jarret Martin, LHP; Cole McCurry, LHP; Bill Rowell, OF; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Justin Turner, 2B; Aaron Wirsch, LHP; Rick Zagone, LHP.

I think the Orioles system is often underrated. There is a lot to like at the top, with Matusz entering the '10 rotation and Arrieta not far behind him. I probably like Arrieta and Britton a bit more than most analysts. Erbe has tremendous potential as well. There is the nucleus of a really good pitching staff here, with several potential major league starters as well as the raw material of a fine bullpen, with a mixture of excellent arms (Mickolio, Lebron, Cooney) as well as guys with command (Egan, Gamboa) who could be fine staff fillers.

Things are thinner on the position side. The best of the hitters is Bell, but I see him more as a very solid guy than a future superstar. Snyder and Waring have potential, but again they strike me more as guys who can be pretty good rather than lineup anchors. Athletes like Givens and Avery have great ceilings but who knows if they can learn how to actually play. Joseph and Ohlman provide some catching depth behind Wieters, but neither one are certain to stick there.

All in all, this system has some major strength in young pitching but they could stand to boost the hitting.

Norfolk Tides Roundup: 5-14 August

Stacey — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 21:57:17 -0000

The Tides spent the past week and a half battling against affiliates for the AL East giants, with back-to-back series against the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. With their former big guns now holding spots in the Orioles rotation they're reduced to Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, and a band of misfits as their starting pitchers.

In the 4 game set against Pawtucket the Tides went 3-1 with their only loss in game three, started by Radhames Liz. I don't feel the need to spend much time on Liz considering I hope to never see him on the Orioles again. He's been in the starting rotation since May 27th, splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk. I have no idea what they're doing with him unless they've decided he's never going to make it so they are sticking him where they need a warm body, because if he IS ever to find big league success, it'll be as a reliever.

To start the series, the Tides won a slugfest 8-7, overcoming another bad outing by Troy Patton (3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 0 K). Offensive star for the game was minor league-lifer Brandon Pinckney who went 4-5 with 2 2B. They took the second game in the series 5-3 behind a strong outings from David Pauley and Brandon Snyder (see sickuvitall's Fan Post). The fourth game was the sweetest victory as Jake Arrieta earned the win at the Fenway Futures game. Jake pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 ER on 6 hits with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. Here's hoping we see plenty of Arrieta wins at Fenway Park in the future.

The Tides followed that series with four games at home vs Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Game three of the series was rained out twice and the Tides dropped the series 1-2. They lost game one 6-1 as Andy Mitchell gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings and the Tides offense snoozed the day away, managing just 3 hits off the starting pitcher Anthony Claggett. Game two was even worse, with the Tides being held to just 2 hits the entire game as ex-Orioles Russ Ortiz pitched 7 shutout innings. It appears Russ found the perfect place for his skills, doesn't it? The Tides avoided the sweep with a 4-2 win in the finale headlined by Blake Davis's 2 hit, 2 RBI day.

Performances worth noting:

In these two series, 1B Brandon Snyder went 8-24 (.333) with 2 2B, 4 BB, and 4 K.
I've taken a liking to 1B/OF/DH Michael Aubrey. It won't be long until I'm telling you all that he can hit and you should deal with it. He played in 5 of the 7 games in these two series, going 7-19 (.368) with a 2B, 2 BB, and 2 K.
2B Justin Turner had a great time in these series, going 9-22 with 5 2B, 6 BB, and 1 K.
Unjustly sent down Kam Mickolio has made four appearances since his demotion, pitching 5 innings and allowing 3 hits and 3 ER (all in one outing) while walking two and striking out 6.
Dennis Sarfate has been with the Tides since July 24th and has pitched 8.2 innings over 8 appearances. He's given up 8 ER on 9 H, striking out 8 and walking 2. 5 of those runs and 5 of those hits came in one 0.2 IP performance on July 31st.

Tonight the Tides start a series on the road against the Charlotte Knights. Jake Arrieta looks to turn in a second consecutive strong performance as he faces off against Daniel Hudson. Hudson has had a very interesting year. The 22 year old was drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft by the White Sox. He started the year in A ball where he made four starts, striking out 30 and walking only 2. He was the promoted to A+ where he made 8 starts, including a game against the Frederick Keys in which he struck out 8 over 7 innings. He then started 9 games at AA where he put a a K/9 of 10 and a K/BB of 6.3. He's made one start so far in AAA, allowing 8 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings on August 9th with just 2 strikeouts, tying his lowest total in a game this year (in his season debut). On April 30th he struck out 13 in 7 innings. On April 24th he struck out 11 in 5.2 innings. This is a hell of a pitching matchup.

AL East SB Nation Midseason Roundtable: The Trade Deadline

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:23:15 -0000

So, Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosted a roundtable featuring bloggers from each SB Nation AL East blog: R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focuses on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Anyway, without further adeiu:

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): I think the Rays could buy and sell. If someone comes along with an enticing offer for Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir, I fully expect the Rays to listen. At the same time, seeing them acquire a cheap catcher wouldn't shock me either.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Historically, the Jays have been quiet in July in terms of deals - not buying or selling. This season could be somewhat different. Of course everyone has heard the Roy Halladay trade rumours but I have to say, I don't think it's particularly likely he gets dealt before next year's trade deadline, though you never know. Scott Rolen could be interesting to some teams, but the Jays would likely need to get back someone who could play third base next season. Lyle Overbay has slumped lately but he is still having a solid season and could be a useful piece. And if anyone needs a shortstop short-term, Marco Scutaro will be a free agent after this season and is having a very fine season on both sides of the ball. The Jays would be looking to get young position players back, particularly in the infield, as only Aaron Hill is signed after the 2010 season. They could also be looking for a young power hitter. The Jays would love to trade Vernon Wells, of course, but his deal makes that very difficult, even without the no-trade clause.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There is no question that the Orioles should be sellers this year. They aren't going anywhere in the standings and they have a number of free agents to-be who could provide value to contending teams. Danys Baez has seen a career revival this year after missing all of last season. He's a FA next year and I can't imagine the O's bringing him back unless he takes a considerable pay cut. Aubrey Huff, also an upcoming FA, has dropped off after a great 2008 but still provides left handed power and has proven himself much more adequate at 1B than could have been imagined. Some O's fans want Aubrey to be re-signed (or at least offered arbitration after the year) because the Orioles don't have an immediate solution to replace him in 2010. Plus Huff has really endeared himself to fans and has publicly stated that he wants to remain an Oriole. He has regrets about leaving the Devil Rays just before they crossed the line into contending, and he's scared to miss that boat with the O's as well. Other possible trade pieces for the Orioles include George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Luke Scott. I think the O's may make a few trades, but Andy MacPhail is nothing if not methodical. He won't trade just because it seems like he should and he won't give away anything if he doesn't get substantial value in return. It seems that he prefers to operate in the winter when there is more flexibility, and he's very, very deliberate. But his patience did bring us Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and more, so for now I'll defer to his wisdom.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): The Red Sox will be "buyers," if you even want to call them that. They're certainly not sellers as the team with the best team in the American League. Even though the Red Sox have been inconsistent, they may not necessarily need to trade for anything. They have a few guys like Jed Lowrie coming off the disabled list that will instantly shore up some holes (of course, that's if he stays healthy). So for another year under Theo Epstein, the Sox might not make a huge splash -- unlike last year, when that guy named Manny, I think, was traded.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Catcher, corner outfield, pitching. John Jaso might be able to help out at catcher, and the other two are just for depth in the system.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): The Jays have had a huge hole at DH/LF for most of the year - Adam Lind has done a great job in one of those spots, but the other one has been occupied by the likes of Kevin Millar and David Dellucci. Now that Travis Snider is back from a back/shoulder injury, if he starts hitting well, he could be called up and fill the spot. The Jays' pitching depth is quite impressive, but they will be relying on young and inexperienced starters to fill 4/5 of the rotation so an arm that could add some stability there would also be good, though they might be content to let the rookies work through it. All of them have showed quite a bit of promise. Shortstop remains a huge concern long-term with Marco Scutaro set to become a free agent after the season and no one to replace him in the Jays' system. But a hole at SS is nothing new for the Jays.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): I have to think that the Orioles FO is looking for solutions to 3B and 1B for the immediate future, with SS a slightly more distant concern. Defensively I've had no complaints with Mora but his offense is simply atrocious. He has an option for next year but I will be shocked if it is picked up. There's no internal solution to the 3B issue and Mora isn't getting any better, so I hope that MacPhail has an external solution in mind. As for 1B, the O's only real hitting prospect, Brandon Snyder, could fill that role next year maybe, but it's no sure thing. For the rest of '09, Aubrey Huff will be fine. He's a 2nd half hitter and I'm confident he'll pick up the pace after the AS break.

The O's pitching at the MLB level is certainly sub-par, but I don't know anyone who considers it a "hole." We're all waiting patiently for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and a number of other lesser prospects to come up to the bigs and save us. We could see Tillman as early as this year which excites me greatly.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): One thing they certainly do need is a defensive shortstop. Julio Lugo and Nick Green just ain't cutting it, but Jed Lowrie, when he comes off the DL, might, so who knows at this point if a trade is necessary. And the Sox might say they need a big bat to help out Ortiz, because let's face it: can he keep this up for this rest of the season? I'm not so sure. The Sox also might be looking for a third baseman because Mike Lowell has had his issues lately, and I don't think the Sox really want to have Kevin Youkilis over at third all the time. Other than that, I don't think the Sox will be going after much. They certainly don't need any pitchers, but could trade one (Takashi Saito namely).

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): As always, the Yankees will be buyers, and would be even if they weren't three back in the division. Pitching is the biggest weakness, and Cashman should feel free to address both the bullpen and the rotation. Who knew Wang and Pettitte would be this bad? Joba's not going deep enough, and Brian Bruney has been oscillating between injured and ineffective.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Gregg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, worst case: someone like Miguel Olivo.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): R.J., I'd love to see a trade with the Rays that nets the Rays Gregg Zaun, but something tells me it'd be a tough sell. Matt Wieters credits Zaun a lot with helping him in every aspect of being a ML catcher and if their mentor/mentee relationship is really that strong the O's might not want to break it up.

As for O's trade targets, I haven't heard anything specific. Everything centering around the Orioles, trade-wise, explores only the pieces the O's would give away, not what they'd get in return. Whoever it is, I'd imagine it would be mostly minor leaguers.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): All the shortstop names have dropped off the table so far (Omar Vizquel anyone?), but other names have surfaced for 3B like Garret Atkins. Don't color me impressed. The other names that could fill a gap are the Nats' Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn -- if the price is right.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Huston Street has been discussed. Ken Rosenthal (take it for what it's worth) says the Yanks are one of the main players for Halladay. I'd like to throw Cliff Lee's name into the mix. He's obviously not on Halladay's level, but is younger and would require significantly less in terms of prospects.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Basically the top three in the system: Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, and Wade Davis. I'd probably throw Jeremy Hellickson in that group as well.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): You won't see Travis Snider or left-handed starter Brett Cecil traded. Actually, I doubt that the Jays are going to be willing to trade much in the way of prospects this July.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The Orioles aren't currently in the business of trading prospects and young major leaguers. I'd imagine that once the pitching starts to take form, perhaps next year, MacPhail will start using his major league ready pieces to fill in the gaps. I haven't heard anything official about players being off limits, but it'll be a cold day in hell before Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis are traded.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): While Clay Buchholz's name comes up a lot, he's been untouchable for a few years now and I don't think that will change now. Michael Bowden, however, who is a poor-man's Buchholz, is almost as good and could be up for grabs. Daniel Bard, the fireballing reliever who is impressing scouts every day, could also be traded because let's face it: he's just a reliever. I don't think any, however, will be traded.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): The big four are Hughes, Joba, Austin Jackson and Jesus. For the Yanks to land Halladay, it would require at least two of them; however, Cashman has shown a reticence to deal 'home-grown' players, especially the upper tier ones, so I doubt they get Halladay. Two intriguing pitchers that could get dealt are Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Two big keys: Jed Lowrie coming back to shortstop 100 percent healthy. If he can be healthy, he has shown in the past he can play some really good ball. The other key: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been absolutely horrid this season. But if he could come off the disabled list and pitch like he did last season, you can wrap up the AL Pennant and put it in a box on Yawkey Way.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): 1) Aliens attack and destroy Boston, 2) The Mets and Yankees switch divisions, 3) The entire Rays team comes down with mono except for Dioner Navarro, and 4) the Blue Jays trade the Orioles Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero for Felix Pie.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's hard to imagine the confluence of events that would have to take place for such a thing to occur, but one thing is certain: the Toronto sports media would still find plenty to complain about.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Both Wang and Joba have to return to 2008 form (in Wang's case, pre-injury). Adding a good reliever would make it easier to move Hughes back to the rotation if Wang/Joba don't return to form.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Great question. I'd consider any acquisition of a young position player under team control for the next several years a big win. Particularly at shortstop or third base, where the Jays have little organizational depth in the high minors (and prospects in the low minors who aren't exactly lighting it up at the moment). The Jays have a lot of pitching depth, but not all that many young pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential. With one-time future-ace Dustin McGowan's career now in doubt, adding a young, top-of-the-rotation potential pitcher to replace him would, of course, be a coup. If you could fill both of those needs by trading Roy Halladay, I think you have to at least consider it.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I'll skip this...

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): And people ask me why I don't like Red Sox fans...

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): For the past decade or so, August and September have been hard for Orioles fans to watch. The annual swoon comes at us fast and before you know it the O's are finishing the season 4-32 or something almost as ridiculous. I'd consider it a win for the O's to continue to play hard down the stretch and avoid the collapse. Hopefully the young guys on the team still have enough to prove that they won't let themselves pack it in. Another win would be continual improvement by Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even Adam Jones. And of course anything done to find help for the Orioles corner infield positions in 2010 and beyond is a bonus.

Patton returns with a win for Bowie

SC — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 10:57:17 -0000

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From Roch:

Pitching for the first time in more than a year, left-hander Troy Patton shut out Akron on three hits over five innings tonight in Double-A Bowie's rain-delayed 3-0 victory.

Patton walked three batters, including two in the first inning, but Akron failed to score when Jeff Fiorentino threw out Carlos Rivero at the plate on Nick Weglarz's single.

The win was Patton's first since Aug. 7, 2007. He underwent surgery last spring to repair a torn labrum.

Good for him. Patton was the highest-upside player we picked up in the Tejada trade, and I know a lot of us are still hoping he can be part of the rotation, even as soon as this season.

Also, did you know Jeff "Screech" Fiorentino is with Bowie this year? Now you do. I wonder if he hits there if people will start freaking out about him like with Montanez.

I joke. Keep the lid on the can of worms.

Also from Roch:

When Trembley visited the mound in the sixth inning after Carlos Pena singled, Hendrickson said "Dave, I gave it everything I had." That confirmed what Trembley already knew had to be done. He brought in Danys Baez to face Pat Burrell.

"I knew it was the right time to get him out of there," Trembley said.

Countdown to the questions about Hendo's toughness start now.

37 comments on 37 pitchers in camp for the Orioles

SC — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:02:30 -0000

The Sun and Jeff Zrebiec had this idea, and they did it with a photo gallery and tiny, barely-viewable short comments about all the pitchers. I liked the idea so much that I'm stealing it and hoping to add a little more in terms of commentary. What can I say? I like to talk.

Matt Albers, RH

Albers put up a 3.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 49 innings for the O's last season before coming up injured (like fellow former Astro Troy Patton) and deciding to forgo surgery in favor of rehabbing, which often leads to...surgery. But he wasn't a blue chip guy to begin with. His three starts were tolerable last season but he looked better out of the bullpen, which is where he probably projects long-term. Likely not a real factor in 2009, but here's hoping we see Fat Albers back on the field at some point.

Jake Arrieta, RH

If you want to be a super sleuth and dig around the site, you'll be able to find out I was jacked, geeked, psyched and pumped when the O's opened up their wallets to sign Arrieta as a fifth round draft pick out of TCU. Arrieta and Wieters in the same class? Zwaaa!

In fact, I might be one of Arrieta's biggest fans. His W-L record means nothing and isn't impressive (6-5 at Frederick), but he was outstanding in his first pro season, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.56 K/9 rate for the Keys. I currently rate Arrieta as our third-best prospect behind Wieters and Tillman, but readily admit Matusz should probably be No. 2 or at least No. 3.

Still, we're talking about three guys that could be long-term parts of the rotation relatively soon. Arrieta has college polish, as does Matusz, and Tillman is rocketing through the minors. Dude still can't drink legally.

I don't want to get all Four Aces or Generation K about it (since those didn't turn out so hot), but man...MAN!

(And because you have to have it.)

More important than all the good numbers and promise re: Arrieta is the fact that Stacey thinks he's hot.

Danys Baez, RH

Let's cut the crap: Danys Baez was a rotten signing when the Orioles got him and he's turned out even worse than you could have imagined. 2007 was a disaster, and in 2008 he did the fans a favor and didn't pitch. That might sound mean, and it's not like I want him to be injured, but in the long run I probably lost less hair for it, so thanks, Danys. Talks of him starting have gone by the wayside. I really don't think we're going to see much at all of Baez this season. If he stinks, they're just going to get rid of him.

Brian Bass, RH

One of a million dudes who might win a rotation spot. Bass, now 27, has been in pro ball since 2000. He made it to The Show in 2008 with the Twins, appearing as a reliever on 44 occasions, and then was traded to the O's where he started four games because that was the state of the '08 Orioles. "Got an arm?" "Like, a good one?" "No, just an arm! We need it!" Bass' career minor league ERA is 4.32 and he doesn't strike anyone out. He does have good control, so that's something. At least he'll throw strikes.

Brad Bergesen, RH

Bergesen's '08 cracked a lot of O's prospect lists, including ours at No. 14. He went 15-6 with a 3.22/1.15 line at Bowie. He lives on a ridiculously fine line, though, with his 4.38 K/9. He has to kind of be perfect. In a perfect world he could be our Justin Duchscherer.

Alberto Castillo, LH

Strengths: Throws with left hand. Once a third round draft choice of the Giants.

Weaknesses: That draft was in 1994. Castillo's career:

June 2, 1994: Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 3rd round of the 1994 amateur draft.

November 11, 1997: Traded by the San Francisco Giants with Chris Singleton to the New York Yankees for Charlie Hayes and cash.

January 26, 1999: Released by the New York Yankees.

February 16, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

March 28, 1999: Released by the Chicago White Sox.

February 29, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Diego Padres.

March 31, 2000: Released by the San Diego Padres.

December 17, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 7, 2002: Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 15, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the St. Louis Cardinals.

March 30, 2003: Released by the St. Louis Cardinals.

January 28, 2008: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

So, y'know. He's "32," which in Cuban years could mean he's 41, and it took him almost 15 years to reach the majors. His ERA (3.81) is a mirage. If they're relying on him, bad things gon' happen. They likely are not.

Scott Chiasson, RH

Chiasson is 31 now, a Connecticut native that played college ball at Eastern Connecticut State, whatever in the hell that is. Being from a large state, I can't imagine really considering the road trip that takes one from "eastern" Connecticut to "western" Connecticut. Eastern to western Michigan is a three and a half hour trip by interstate.

Chiasson is one of a million former Cubs from the MacPhail era that has managed a way into the O's system. He was originally drafted by the Royals in 1998, then traded to the A's as a PTBNL for Jay Witasick (former Oriole, sort of). The Cubs nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft in December 2000 and he got cups of coffee in '01 and '02. He's just a body.

Fredy Deza, RH

6'2" and stick-thin. The Sun lists his 2.25 ERA at Norfolk, which came over a grand eight innings of work. He turned 26 in December and has been pitching Orioles A-ball forever. They seem to have officially given up on him as a starter the last few years.

DEEEEEZ...

Jeremy Guthrie, RH

He's the ace. He's not the world's best ace, but he's our ace, damn it. Truthfully, the world will be awesome if Guthrie is the fourth starter in 2010 or 2011. I say that with all love for Guts. When I did the Hardball Times preview, I noted that Guthrie is a guy who's always going to be projected to tail off from numbers like he's put up the last two years, and I really believe he's got more of the last two years in him, and that it's not really a fluke. He's just a good, solid pitcher.

During the NBA All-Star Weekend, I watched the three-point contest, which was horrendous because Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller are like having Tim McCarver and Thom Brennaman in the same booth. When Danny Granger was up, Kenny must have said "he's a scorer not a shooter" 17 times. Guthrie's a pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower.

Kenny later predicted that none of the three remaining guys in the tournament could win.

Mark Hendrickson, LH

Hendo hasn't even thrown a pitch as a Baltimore Oriole and he's been ripped here plenty. Not by me -- I'm all for letting him stink first. And he will stink. Speaking of basketball, this dude's a failed basketball player. He's 6'9" and can't strike anyone out. The good news is he also doesn't walk many guys and does have minor value as a swingman. The bad news is he's 35 and was horrible last season in Florida.

Brad Hennessey, RH

Once, long ago, Hennessey was a Giants prospect. He's now a failed Giants prospect on board with the Orioles, and he'll be starting the first game of the spring against the Mets. That happens TODAY! WOO!

Hennessey is a Toledo native that attended Youngstown State (the penguin school where that damned Jim Tressel coached before he took over at Vomit State).

He was pretty effective in 2007 as a fill-in closer for the Giants, saving 19 games and putting up a 3.42 ERA. But the fact is the Giants lost all faith in him a while ago. At 29, time's a-wastin' and it's either on the train or off. The Orioles are going to give him a shot, and they have no reason to not. It's a noble move. Former prospect, has shown he can pitch in the majors (if briefly), and still young enough to wring some good years. If he doesn't make it, big whoop. If he does, he could be Guthrie Part II, a super cheap pickup that flamed out elsewhere and latched on here. No harm no foul either way.

David Hernandez, RH

Now univerally considered one of our ten best prospects, and yet still sort of a sleeper guy thanks to his surroundings in the arms department. Common sense says that eventually bats catch up to his fastball-slider combo since he's not Randy Johnson or anything, and that a relief role may best suit him. I mean, that's said basically all the time, but it bears repeating just because it's true. It's logic. It's hard to get by on two pitches as a major league starter. Still, he was excellent at Bowie last season and surpassed expectations.

Rich Hill, LH

MacPhail Salvation Project No. 39. If Rich Hill needed a change of scenery, he's got it. If his physical problems are corrected, there's a LOT of upside. If it's mental, that's a tough game to win. He's wilder than all hell, but now there's almost no pressure on him. I think we as O's fans do deserve credit for patience. It took a long time for most of y'all to start railing on Daniel Cabrera as hard as I did from 2006 on, and he'd damn sure earned it.

I don't think any of us expect the moon of Hill, and I assure him should he happen to ever somehow stumble upon it, we're all rootin' for ya, dude. Welcome to Baltimore. Feel free to get comfortable and relax.

Jim Hoey, RH

Have never been a fan. Knew dudes that looked like Jim Hoey in high school. They were all goobers. Straight-up goobers. That's not really his fault. I shouldn't be mean. Maybe he's not a goober.

He missed all of 2008 with a shoulder surgery, and that hardly helps his case. Even before that there were a lot of issues.

Jim Johnson, RH

I used to be a massive pro wrestling fan, which we've been over a bunch. I still like the old stuff. I don't remember ever NOT being a pro wrestling fan. I do remember being five years old and begging my grandparents to order WrestleMania III. I couldn't wrap my mind around the fact that pay-per-view just was not available in our area at the time. On I went with life.

Anyway, signs in the crowd became a big deal in the late 1990s, and one of my favorite signs ever was very simple: "STING YOUR COOL." If I ever went to see Jim Johnson, I'd take a sign that said, "JIM YOUR COOL."

My favorite sign ever, by the way, was "RAY TRAYLOR IS MY FAVORITE PROFESSIONAL WRESTLER." Either that or "I LIKE CURT HENNIG."

Jim is cool. Projections have a hard time taking into account sinkerballers sometimes, plus Jim's track record is short. But he was excellent setting up Sherrill last year and there's really no reason he shouldn't be competing for a rotation spot or the closer's role. I've got nothing against George Sherrill or Chris Ray, but I think I can say that at this moment, I'd be more comfortable with Big Jim in the ninth.

Ryan Keefer, RH

Instead of assessing Keefer's chances, I'll just post the Sun's stock photo of him, because he looks so gosh darn happy:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Radhames Liz, RH

Liz, like the departed Garrett Olson, crashed and burned in a trial by fire last season in the Orioles rotation. Chances are strong he'll be in the Opening Day starting five because the Orioles have put a lot of stock into him over the last few years, and because he went out and took his lumps like a man last year. I've been saying for about three years he looks like a reliever (and not a particularly great one) to me, but there's more value if he starts, and until he proves he absolutely cannot start in the majors, it's better to start him if he's going to pitch at all at this age. Liz has very mild breakout potential in 2009.

Brian Matusz, LH

The Wieters of pitchers. That's grossly overstating Matusz's prospectdom, but I don't care. I'm rolling with it. You got a problem, dude, meet me after class and we'll hash this s**t out. I don't even care. Let's go!

Bob McCrory, RH

Bob McCrory is the goober that hung around with goobers like Jim Hoey in high school. Jim might've started a couple fights, but Bob usually got in there and took it for him and socked someone in the nose. Bob McCrory looks like he enjoys a good PBR on a warm summer's eve. I like Bob McCrory more than I do Jim Hoey, but I still don't want to hang out with them too often, if you know what I'm sayin'.

Kam Mickolio, RH

Mickolio's biggest obstacle is experience. Real experience. Experience in playing baseball. Not a ton of organized baseball in Montana, where he grew up. He's still a baby in this game. I don't think he'll be amazing, but I do think he'll cut out a regular role for himself in the bullpen by July. He has the best heat in the system, and he also looks like the subject of Honey, I Blew Up Nomar Garciaparra:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Jim Miller, RH

Came over in the Roddy Lopez trade with the Rockies. Anything positive he can do is gravy on top of not having Rodrigo Lopez on the team.

Andy Mitchell, RH

Mitchell's been in the O's system since turning pro in 2001, and he's 30 years old now. He started strictly as a relief pitcher, but the last two seasons has gone swingman in Norfolk, where he'll stay as long as he's employed by the Orioles. In an organization with as many horrible staffs as this one has had since he's been around, Andy's never even gotten an inning for the O's despite a career ERA of 3.59 in 650+ minor league innings. That kind of says it all.

John Parrish, LH

I know I'm half-halfassed analyst and half-doofy fan in this thing, but if you believe one thing I'm saying is genuine, believe this: Pass.

Troy Patton, LH

From the guy I'm furious is back to the guy I'm still stoked to see suit up for our Birds. Patton missed all of 2008 with the dreaded fabrum bear, but he's ready to sling this spring, and I like this dude's attitude. He's like the 13-3 football team that just won the conference championship. "No one said we could do dis! They all said we couldn't do dis!" Nah, dude, I think you can do dis. Go do dat.

David Pauley, RH

Pauley's been workmanlike in the systems of both San Diego and Boston since '01, and last year went 14-4 with Pawtucket. He also pitched 12 1/3 innings for the Red Sox and was lit the hell up for 23 hits and 16 earned runs (11.68 ERA). Oops! Pauley has an outside shot at the rotation, but it's more outside than it might seem given his AAA record last year. He's really nothing special at all, but I quite like the Orioles giving him a shot.

Hayden Penn, RH

True story: I always wanted to name a son Hayden, mostly because of my love for Coach, and also because I didn't think I could convince any woman to let me name a son Luther. My fiancee may allow me to someday name a son Magic Johnson Christ, which I think is kind of awesome. (And before anyone starts, I know she's just humoring me. Let me have my dreams.)

Penn's had one of the damnedest careers you'll ever see, including being impaled, and while it's worth noting that he's not all that old still (he turned 24 last October), I think this is sort of a case of a guy being older than his age, like in boxing when Erik Morales got really old at 28. Too many things happened. Too many wars. I think maybe Penn doesn't just "seem" older, he might figuratively be older than 24.

Wilfrido Perez, RH

A 24-year old relief prospect, Perez put up some nice K-rates in the low levels before tapering off to just under 9 K/9 at Bowie in 23 innings. He absolutely dominated in 81 innings at Delmarva in 2007, posting a 1.67 ERA and striking out 101 batters. He's generally had so-so (at best) WHIP numbers because he doesn't have the best control (it's also not awful) and he's hittable (7 H/9 career).

Chris Ray, RH

Sugar Ray is back in action and will have a shot at taking the closer's job he left behind when he missed all of 2008. He deserves it if he can handle it, because even though he was not dominant, he's going to be better in the role than Sherrill. Again, Johnson might be a much better option than either of them, but he's "never closed before." Not like super veteran Ray or All-Star George.

Dennis Sarfate, RH

He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher.

George Sherrill, LH

My favorite part of the 2008 Orioles Magic DVD "making of" is when Millar and Sherrill obviously set up an "impromptu" "quick-witted" joke where Millar goes, "George, you look like Vin Diesel," and then Sherrill goes, "Let'sgetsomethinstraight. VinDiesellookslikeme." And it's like, OHHH!

Alfredo Simon, RH

Another guy inching toward 30 with bad minor league numbers that got ripped up in a short stint last year. He's horrible. He has no business on the team. Zrebiec's comment is, "That he managed to stay on the 40-man roster all offseason says something." What? The Orioles forgot about him?

Chorye Spoone, RH

Still rehabbing and won't be healthy to start the year, but in camp anyway. I forget which one of you likes Spoone way more than I do. Show yourself! If he was Tim Spooneybarger's brother, I'd like him more. He was down-and-up even before the injury.

Chris Tillman, RH

Dear Old Seattle Mariners Front Office,

In times of trouble where you've been fired and all that, sometimes it helps to hear from the people whose lives you've touched in a very positive manner. When you traded Chris Tillman, Adam Jones, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler for Erik Bedard, you did something great for us, and we're going to be thankful for many years to come.

We know that Mr. Bedard didn't work out so great for you in 2008 and at least partially led to you all getting thrown out on your behinds, but we Orioles fans wanted you to know that we still have a soft spot for you.

And if you see Eric O'Flaherty, tell him we said hello.

Kindest Regards,

Orioles Fans

Koji Uehara, RH

He is not going to be Daisuke Matsuzaka. The best we can really hope for is he isn't Kei Igawa either. The latter is far, far, far more likely than the former.

Chris Waters, LH

Zrebiec actually pulled the "no one thinks he can do dis!" card in his Waters comment. That's because he probably can't. He had two exceptional starts for the Orioles and treaded on thin ice otherwise.

Jamie Walker, LH

Jamie Waker, Boy, could star as Will Ferrell's impersonation of George W. Bush in a movie:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Walker is so close to the end of his line that it might be really painful to watch him unless he's pulled some rabbit out of the hat after last year. When guys whose fastballs are offspeed pitches start to fail, it's usually pretty gruesome. He was lobbing BP last year.

Ross Wolf, RH

Former Marlin. Probably here because Kranitz knows him.

CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects: Post-Season 2008 Edition

SC — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:32:10 -0000

On April 1, this happened:

1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Bill Rowell, 3B
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
4. Nolan Reimold, OF
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP
6. Chris Tillman, RHP
7. Garrett Olson, LHP
8. Chorye Spoone, RHP
9. Tony Butler, LHP
10. Hayden Penn, RHP
11. Tim Bascom, RHP
12. Troy Patton, LHP
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP
15. David Hernandez, RHP
16. Pedro Beato, RHP
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B
18. Matt Albers, RHP
19. Randor Bierd, RHP
20. Bob McCrory, RHP

It is now October 8. This will happen. Instead of going over these guys in that order and how their seasons went, I'm going to re-shuffle at the same time. And there's plenty of movement.

1. Matt Wieters, C (1)

This will no doubt sound very "after the fact," but I was very big on Nick Markakis. While looking at his stat lines, I thought, "Here's a guy that puts up real numbers. Here's a guy that can play." We had been treated to lots of flop prospects that never put up numbers, but we were told yearly about their "potential" and their "ceiling." No one really talked about Markakis' "ceiling" -- he actually played well instead.

Matt Wieters makes Nick Markakis (at similar stages) look like Keith Reed. The former Yellow Jacket entered his first season of professional baseball as maybe the most hyped player coming out of the 2007 draft, partially due to the fact that I think WE were all so excited to have a player of his caliber that we decided to make him out to be Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Johnny Bench and prime years Pudge Rodriguez all rolled into one.

In 229 ABs at Frederick, he hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 home runs. In 208 at-bats with Bowie, he topped that, hitting .365/.460/.625 with 12 dongs.

If Wieters starts off the year in Bowie or Norfolk in 2009, go see him if you have the chance, because you won't have many to see this superstar-in-the-making play in the sticks. He's coming. He's on his way. Frankly, there's no reason other than contract jive that he isn't the starting catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

If they want to excite the fans about the future and get the skeptics to buy into the rebuilding (which they've heard before and was bungled so badly that I don't blame them), they need to have Wieters on the club. Simple as that. He's a player.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP (6)

Start the hype machine. This is our best pitching prospect. Thanks, Mariners!

Tillman turns 21...next April. That means that this guy just put on some damn good numbers in Double-A ball, and he can't even legally buy a drink until next April. In 135 innings, Tillman held opposing batters to a .227 average, went 11-4, and struck out 154. The Anaheim native was an Eastern League All-Star, and also represents something different from our pitching prospects, something that Wieters does, too: results. Actual, tangible results. Numbers you can point to as a reason to believe he'll be very good. He's probably not destined to be an ace, but a 2 or a 3? Absolutely. And as much as I try to stay away from blind optimism, given his age, I see no reason he can't become an ace. He's 20!

And because he's so young and good but no phenom, there's no reason to rush him up the chain. He'll be ready when he's ready.

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP (5)

Former Horned Frog Arrieta pitched 113 innings at Frederick, and went just 6-5.

Buuuut...in doing so, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .199 BAA, and was named to the Carolina League All-Star game, the Carolina League post-season All-Star team, and oh yeah, was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He also played in the Futures Game.

The league couldn't touch him, but did draw some walks. I loved the Arrieta draft choice when we made it, and it looks even better now. Here's another guy that can solidify a staff in the future, and is showing that ability to do so with RESULTS. I know I keep harping on that, but I don't feel the need to explain Arrieta's ceiling. You can actually see that he's good. It's not just smoke-blowing.

He DID tire late in the season, and finished 1-5 in his last 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA, but conditioning is something you learn, like throwing a good slider or hitting one. Unlike beanpole Tillman (6-5, 195), Arrieta already has the body that a scout would like (6-4, 225).

4. Brian Matusz, LHP (-)

Matusz very well might be so good that he could jump up to No. 2 on this list by the middle of 2009. He is currently in the Arizona Fall League, playing with the Surprirse Rafters, but has yet to pitch as best I can tell.

The San Diego University standout was taken fourth overall by the Orioles, and they paid a pretty penny to get him signed. But when you look at his final college season, you know why: 12-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, and just four home runs allowed in 105 innings pitched.

He dominated college ball, and that means he has college shine on his left arm, much like Jake Arrieta has on his right arm. College players are generally better than high school players. That is a scientific fact. The Orioles ponying up the dough to sign Matusz and Wieters in back-to-back years is a GREAT sign from our front office. For years we were throwing money at the wall with guys like Adam Loewen, which turned out bad in every possible respect. Not only did Loewen stink, but he was hurt all the time, we gave him a terrible contract that rushed him into Major League duty, and now he's not even a pitcher anymore.

Put it this way: if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were all to pan out (not likely, but not unprecedented), then that's 3/5 of a rotation made out of real arms, not the junk we've been accepting as top prospect pitchers. These guys lay waste to what we've been fed for years.

5. Nolan Reimold, OF (4)

Reimold started very slow, but wound up on the Eastern League post-season All-Stars, hitting .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. He finally stayed healthy enough to play 139 games, too, which is a great thing. Right now, he's playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.

Reimold is a guy that has earned the chance to compete for a job next spring. Luke Scott is not getting any younger and isn't exactly great shakes to begin with, plus Millar should be gone, which would open up first base or DH. Huff could step in at first and Luke could do the majority of the DHing, with Reimold out in left, giving us a legit young outfield of Markakis, Jones and Reimold. Not bad.

I have no doubt that Reimold could hit in the Majors, at least putting up numbers similar to what Luke did this season. The only thing I still worry about is his ability to stay healthy.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP (3)

Two reasons Radhames Liz stays this high. First, it was his first taste of Major League Baseball, and sometimes guys get shelled. He went out there and did the best he could do. Command is the obvious issue. He has the stuff. I think he's more likely to find MLB success out of the bullpen, but that's not a bad place to be. A player's a player.

Second, the system takes a significant hit after the top five. A lot of guys bit the dust this year due to injury or plain old sucktitude, and Liz's ceiling (ooh!) remains higher than just about all of them.

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP (14)

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Brandon Erbe ninth in the O's system. In 2007, they had him up to No. 2, and 78th in baseball. In 2008, he was down to tenth following a disastrous season at Frederick (6.26 ERA, 119.1 IP).

He came back strong, and he's still only 21 in December (Erbe, in fact, is one of the unlucky few born on Christmas).

Erbe improved across the board in another go-'round with the Keys this year. His strikeouts were up (8.37 to 9.02 per nine), his walks down (4.68 to 2.99), hits allowed down (9.58 to 7.17), and his ERA dipped to 4.30 with a 1.13 WHIP, which was down .45 points. His ERA was only that high, actually, because he struggled with gopher balls: he allowed 21 in 150 innings.

Hope is rekindled...

8. David Hernandez, RHP (15)

Hernandez's first season in Bowie was a fine success, as he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The only concern is that he's still pretty much a fastball/slider guy, and his command is quite shaky, with 71 walks in 141 innings. On the plus side, he struck out 166, and was tough to hit (112 hits allowed). Might end up a bullpen guy, but could be a really good one, too.

9. Tony Butler, LHP (9)

Butler went on the Delmarva DL for good in June, after putting up a 4.42 ERA in 55 innings. What is very nice to see is a tremendously low walk rate, at 1.80 BB/9. His strikeout totals weren't amazing (7.20/9), but the control is the key. He's still a nice prospect as he doesn't turn 21 until November, but guys getting hurt this young is always a maroon flag if not one that is blood red.

10. Billy Rowell, 3B (2)

Before we get into why Billy Rowell slips a full eight spots and why you should probably burn your hopes and dreams, let's sum up his season with honesty very quickly.

Summary, Billy Rowell, 2008: Rowell got hurt early on and stayed out longer than expected, wound up playing just 111 games, and when he wasn't hurt, he sucked. Rowell hit .248/.315/.348 with seven home runs, not exactly befitting the ninth pick of the 2006 draft, and the man that was supposed to be our future at third or first base.

Outside of 42 games with Bluefield in 2006, Rowell hasn't hit for any power, racking up just 16 home runs the last two seasons, neither of which he played as much as you'd like (91 games in 2007, 111 this year). He was way below expectations at Delmarva, and way below expectations again this season with Frederick.

I keep him this high, honestly, only out of Amber-style blind faith. I want Rowell to turn it around in 2009 and get fast-tracked to the majors. One reason is that Melvin Mora can't stand over there forever, and we can't be relying on Melvin's second half sonic boom to carry over as he inches toward 40.

It all begs the question: is Rowell working hard or hardly working?! A-ha-ha-ha! Classic.

11. Troy Patton, LHP (12)

With the great bright spots at the top, Rowell's freefall and Patton moving up a spot despite not pitching really should explain the type of season the Orioles system had outside of a decent-looking draft. Troy Patton did not throw a single pitch as he was out with a labrum injury, and who knows if he'll return any good or not? But I have more faith that Troy Patton will contribute to the Major League team in a positive way than I do anyone below him.

Put that in your pipe and give it a think. Like I said, improvements in recent years or not, this system takes a nosedive after the top five.

12. Garrett Olson, LHP (7)

Not only did Garrett Olson stink up the joint something awful (9-10, 6.65/1.73, 62 BB in 132 IP) filling in for Adam Loewen this season, but he rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way, too, seeming to be totally indifferent to his struggles. Asked if his bad season got to him, Olson said, "Not really," or whatever.

Maybe that's a good thing, though. Maybe he figures you take your lumps and you figure out how to fix it. Maybe he spends the entire off-season working on fixing it. Maybe he spends it in Aruba punching judges and we can really start to hate him.

I'm not in Garrett Olson's mind. I don't know what he's thinking. I do know his stock took a serious hit this year, because struggling is one thing, but he got his ass kicked.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B (13)

2005 first-round pick Brandon Snyder remains a personal favorite of mine. John Sickels regarded Snyder, then a catcher, as the best high school hitter in that draft, so I was thrilled that the Orioles signed him. Imagine if Snyder, Rowell, Wieters and Matusz had all panned out as expected. Woof! Then again, that's why I think talking about securing draft position in a losing year is pointless. You get more Snyders and Rowells, guys facing uphill battles very quickly, than you do guys like Wieters that come in and kill everything thrown at them.

Snyder had a solid year for Frederick, hitting .315/.358/.490 with 13 homers and 80 RBI (435 AB), but his power is going to have to improve for him to be a serious idea for first base. That or he needs to figure out how to have the plate discipline of Mark Grace, which is not looking likely with his 83-to-29 K-to-BB totals.

14. Bradley Bergesen, RHP (-)

Sickels had Bergesen ranked 17th in January. He just missed my cut in April. He had a really nice year at Bowie, going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he walked next to no one in 148 innings, just 1.64 per nine. The catch? He only struck out 4.38 per nine. Not good, but results should speak, I think, and he made things happen this year.

15. Chorye Spoone, RHP (8)

The Prospect Lord giveth (mass improvements all around in 2007), and He taketh away (mass collapse and only nine starts in 2008). Spoone was back to posting the junk numbers he did in 2005-06 before going down for the year, which is a double negative. His 2007 might be a career year.

16. Xavier Avery, OF (-)

A two-sport superstar in Georgia high school athletics, Avery was a four-star running back with a verbal commitment to the University of Georgia. Instead, he opted to sign with the Orioles, who took him in the second round of this year's draft.

Still just 18, Avery is very, very raw, as you'd probably expect, but he's a ceiling guy, and his ceiling is pretty good. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash and has been clocked at 3.95 seconds from home plate to first base. He has what is called "plus-plus" speed, and his natural power is good, too. Obviously it'll take a while for these things to come into play, so don't look for him moving up through the system too quickly.

There's a good chance Avery will flat-out stink and it'll turn out he should've stuck with football. But for the Orioles to give a guy money when the University of Georgia is ready to have him come play football, that says there's something special that somebody sees. That often means zilch at the end of the day, but I hope he made the right choice. His arm as described as "suited for left field," which means his arm sucks. Ever see a running back throw? Not pretty.

17. Hayden Penn, RHP (10)

Penn stays here only because there aren't that many players to put on the list at this point, and because he'd probably do no worse, realistically, than Liz or Olson did this season. Of course, the Orioles thought enough of those guys to give them the shots, and Penn didn't see one inning of action in Baltimore this year.

Anyone still hanging on to 2004-05 when Penn's name meant something, give it up. He's just another AAA pitcher with AAA upside (4.79/1.45 in 100 IP at Norfolk).

18. L.J. Hoes, 2B (-)

I like your name, young man! Hoes was signed to play ball at the University of North Carolina, and opted to sign with Baltimore instead. He's described in every article you can find on him as a hell of a nice guy, a hard worker, a team player, blah blah blah. He played his high school ball with highly-successful St. John's (Washington, D.C.), as an outfielder and starting pitcher. The Orioles see him as a second baseman. In brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles this year, Hoes was was a walk mo-sheen, putting up a .416 OBP and going 10-for-10 in steal attempts. He hit .308 and slugged .390.

19. Jason Berken, RHP (-)

Again, it's just about results. 25-year old Berken went 12-4 (3.58/1.23) with Bowie this season. It's worth something, but he's not a real prospect.

20. Bob McCrory (20)

As always: has the stuff, needs to throw strikes. He was horrible in a brief stint with the Orioles this year. If he can learn some f-ing command, he could be a valuable f-ing addition to the f-ing bullpen. C'mon, Bob.

To the dearly departed...

First off was Tim Bascom (RHP, 11), a guy I liked a lot because of his story, but who really stunk up the joint in Frederick this season, with a 5.78 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 95 innings. Just after him was Pedro Beato (RHP, 16), a guy John Sickels had at #10 in January but that I simply didn't fully buy. Beato, 21, had a 5.85/1.57 line with 4.73 K/9 in 97 innings with the Keys, going 4-10. As Sickels put it in August, the two of them had a contest to see who could suck more. In the end, a pretty dead even race, and both are toast until something dramatic happens.

Scott Moore (IF, T-17) and Mike Costanzo (3B, T-17) both had awful years at Norfolk. Moore hit .247/.321/.408 with seven home runs, while Costanzo hit .261/.333/.395 with his usual massive amount of strikeouts, and just 11 home runs, a 16-homer drop from 2007 at AAA with the Phillies. Both are 24, and neither are really prospects, and really, neither ever really were. They were C-grade guys who look like they've probably hit the wall.

Matt Albers (RHP, 18) is off because he's hurt. I liked what we saw of him for the most part this year.

Randor Bierd (RHP, 19) just isn't anything special. His upside is less than that of McCrory, which was the tiebreaker. Both could be fine spare parts in the bullpen.

Note: Olson and Liz may not meet your guidelines for "prospect" at this point, given how much they pitched in Baltimore this year, but I think this should be a loose interpretation. Both guys were forced into their roles -- there was literally no one else available with Loewen out and Trachsel thankfully sent on down the river. There is hardly any guarantee that either man is with the Birds in 2009.

Other guys, notes, and statistical crapola...

If you're wondering where Oscar Salazar is, the answer is he's 30 years old.

Kam Mickolio is still a fun idea at 6-foot-9, but tall doesn't get me all aflutter the way it does some people. Years of Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will do that to you. He struggled with Bowie and struggled in September with the O's. He's still very raw considering he's from Montana. (That's not a knock on Montana, it's just he never played much baseball.)

21-year old Delmarva second baseman and whiny, self-important singer/songwriter Ryan Adams hit .308/.367/.462 with 11 homers this season. Not a bad line. He also made 52 errors.

The rest of the O's 2008 draft class: OF Kyle Hudson (University of Illinois), SS Greg Miclat (University of Virginia), and LHP Rick Zagone (University of Missouri). Zagone tore the hell out of the New York-Penn league in 65 innings, going 7-1 with a .289 ERA and 10.88 strikeouts per nine against 1.93 walks per nine.

Ex-Ohio State Buckeye (puke) Matt Angle will have fans in every minor league city he plays, I bet. Born in Columbus (puke), Angle hit .287/.385/.379 for Delmarva. He was also 22 years old. He has zero power, and though he runs well (37-for-48 steal attempts), his Major League future probably rests in the role of National League guy that pinch-hits for the pitcher, tries to draw a walk, and then maybe makes something happen on the basepaths.

No, I will not rank Lou Montanez. He is 27 in December and remains a massive bust. He has had exactly one season of pro ball that has met or surpassed expectations. It was this one.

23-year old pitcher Mick Mattaliano threw 43 innings of relief for Delmarva, putting up a 1.24 ERA. He went to Norfolk for seven innings and got shelled. Whoops!

My personal favorite player in the world, Cole McCurry, stunk with Delmarva (6.51 ERA, 56 IP) but tore up Aberdeen (2.76 ERA, 81 IP).

Kennard hit just .257/.323/.350 in 140 AB.