SB Nation - Radhames Liz

Wednesday's Late and Brief Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:15:03 -0000

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Justin Duchscherer is a potential 2010 Brewer. That means I probably need to learn to spell his name...or assign him a clever nickname that catches on. Suggestions?

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Some things to read while finding eternal life.

Thanks for bearing with me this week. The Mug will return to its normal format and schedule on Friday. In the meantime, here's the crash-course version of today's notes:

Adam McCalvy has two more names for you to consider as the Brewers head into hot stove season: Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Correia. Meanwhile, ESPN has a story about clinical depression that Duchscherer has battled in the past. I don't think the depression has anything to do with the fact that his name is impossible to spell.
Caitlin Moyer has a look at the offseason work of Brewer Grounds Crew leader Gary Vanden Berg, who recently finished putting Miller Park's field to bed for 2009.
Mike Cameron might be one of the best free agent position players on the market this offseason, but Bleed Cubbie Blue is comparing him to Marlon Byrd.
In the minors, Baseball America used Pitch F/x to gather average and max fastball speeds for pitchers that appeared in the Arizona Fall League. Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, Josh Butler and Omar Aguilar all check in somewhere in the low-mid 90's.
In transactions: the Padres claimed starting pitcher Radhames Liz off waivers from the Orioles.
The White Sox signed Andruw Jones to a one year deal.
Shelley Duncan elected for free agency after the Yankees outrighted him off their 40-man roster.
I'm still hoping the Brewers will sign Yorvit Torrealba, but the Blue Jays are also rumored to have interest.
Today's Faces feature over at Lookout Landing features another former Brewer: Ben Ford.
Yesterday I mentioned a few of them, but Royals Review has a look at the five dumbest NL MVP votes.
Speaking of awards: on this day in 1969, Lou Piniella won the AL Rookie of the Year. Piniella started the season as a Seattle Pilot, but was traded on April 1 for pitcher John Gelnar and OF Steve Whitaker. Gelnar posted a 3.78 ERA over three seasons as a Pilot and Brewer. Whitaker spent one season with the Piolts and was done in the majors by 1971.
On this day in 1981, Rollie Fingers became the first relief pitcher ever to win the AL MVP. Fingers picked up 15 of the 28 first place votes and edged out Rickey Henderson by 11 points.
I wasn't able to find a Brewer birthday today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Tony Brewer, who turns 52.
Oh, and if you're looking for something to do tonight, Keith Law has updated his list of the top ten board games.

Drink up.

Norfolk Tides Roundup: 5-14 August

Stacey — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 21:57:17 -0000

The Tides spent the past week and a half battling against affiliates for the AL East giants, with back-to-back series against the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. With their former big guns now holding spots in the Orioles rotation they're reduced to Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, and a band of misfits as their starting pitchers.

In the 4 game set against Pawtucket the Tides went 3-1 with their only loss in game three, started by Radhames Liz. I don't feel the need to spend much time on Liz considering I hope to never see him on the Orioles again. He's been in the starting rotation since May 27th, splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk. I have no idea what they're doing with him unless they've decided he's never going to make it so they are sticking him where they need a warm body, because if he IS ever to find big league success, it'll be as a reliever.

To start the series, the Tides won a slugfest 8-7, overcoming another bad outing by Troy Patton (3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 0 K). Offensive star for the game was minor league-lifer Brandon Pinckney who went 4-5 with 2 2B. They took the second game in the series 5-3 behind a strong outings from David Pauley and Brandon Snyder (see sickuvitall's Fan Post). The fourth game was the sweetest victory as Jake Arrieta earned the win at the Fenway Futures game. Jake pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 ER on 6 hits with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. Here's hoping we see plenty of Arrieta wins at Fenway Park in the future.

The Tides followed that series with four games at home vs Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Game three of the series was rained out twice and the Tides dropped the series 1-2. They lost game one 6-1 as Andy Mitchell gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings and the Tides offense snoozed the day away, managing just 3 hits off the starting pitcher Anthony Claggett. Game two was even worse, with the Tides being held to just 2 hits the entire game as ex-Orioles Russ Ortiz pitched 7 shutout innings. It appears Russ found the perfect place for his skills, doesn't it? The Tides avoided the sweep with a 4-2 win in the finale headlined by Blake Davis's 2 hit, 2 RBI day.

Performances worth noting:

In these two series, 1B Brandon Snyder went 8-24 (.333) with 2 2B, 4 BB, and 4 K.
I've taken a liking to 1B/OF/DH Michael Aubrey. It won't be long until I'm telling you all that he can hit and you should deal with it. He played in 5 of the 7 games in these two series, going 7-19 (.368) with a 2B, 2 BB, and 2 K.
2B Justin Turner had a great time in these series, going 9-22 with 5 2B, 6 BB, and 1 K.
Unjustly sent down Kam Mickolio has made four appearances since his demotion, pitching 5 innings and allowing 3 hits and 3 ER (all in one outing) while walking two and striking out 6.
Dennis Sarfate has been with the Tides since July 24th and has pitched 8.2 innings over 8 appearances. He's given up 8 ER on 9 H, striking out 8 and walking 2. 5 of those runs and 5 of those hits came in one 0.2 IP performance on July 31st.

Tonight the Tides start a series on the road against the Charlotte Knights. Jake Arrieta looks to turn in a second consecutive strong performance as he faces off against Daniel Hudson. Hudson has had a very interesting year. The 22 year old was drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft by the White Sox. He started the year in A ball where he made four starts, striking out 30 and walking only 2. He was the promoted to A+ where he made 8 starts, including a game against the Frederick Keys in which he struck out 8 over 7 innings. He then started 9 games at AA where he put a a K/9 of 10 and a K/BB of 6.3. He's made one start so far in AAA, allowing 8 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings on August 9th with just 2 strikeouts, tying his lowest total in a game this year (in his season debut). On April 30th he struck out 13 in 7 innings. On April 24th he struck out 11 in 5.2 innings. This is a hell of a pitching matchup.

Orioles 7, Royals 3. Hey, there was a game today!

duck — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:27:08 -0000

Quickly lost in the news of the condition of Brad Bergesen's shin and George Sherrill going to the Dodgers for a portly 3B prospect and the son of O's broadcaster and ex-pitcher Dave Johnson is the elation of a split at home against the Royals.

Dave Trembley said on Wired Wednesday yesterday he could feel the frustration of his lineup, and stated "Someone's gonna pay. We're gonna put double digits on someone. Someone's gonna pay."

The Orioles didn't get 10 runs against the Royals today, but it wasn't for lack of effort. Fortified by the steady presence of Brad Bergesen's 7.0 IP of one-run baseball, scattering seven hits and two walks while picking up six. He looked a little tired in the 7th, and was destined to come out after the inning when he took a wicked line drive off his left shin from the bat of Billy Butler. As if we didn't already have enough reasons to hate that guy. Probably works on a ship with Kevin Youkilis in the off-season.

Bergesen has now gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts and has had a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12. Makes Brian Burres and Radhames Liz seem like a long, long time ago, doesn't it?

Everyone in the O's lineup, even Luke Scott, got a hit today, and KC starter Luke Hochevar took the beating. The O's got multi-hit games from Felix Pie, Aubrey Huff, and Ty Wigginton, and Aubrey drove in as many runs today (three) as he had since July 3. The beer will taste a little better tonight for Mr. Huff. Don't forget to tip the doorman, Aubrey.

Brad's X-rays came back negative, although Brad had his doubts. On 105.7 FM, he told their reporter " Yeah, I thought it was broken, I got to the dugout and fell down. The pain was bad, I wanted to throw up. The X-rays said no break, and I hope that’s the case. They said sometimes a hairline (fracture) can be hidden with swelling, we’ll know tomorrow when the swelling goes down."

Here's hoping it's nothing more than a nasty ~~sprain~~ bruise. The Boston Red Sox come into town tomorrow, and let's just hope John Smoltz pitches as bad tomorrow as he did on Sunday.

Royals vs Orioles recap | Royals vs Orioles boxscore | Royals Review

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Thursday, July 30, 2009?

Brad Bergesen (W, 7.0 IP, 1 R, 7 H, 6 K, 2 BB)

227 votes

Aubrey Huff (2-4, 3 RBI, 2B)

5 votes

George Sherrill (Got us a 3B prospect and Dave Johnson's kid. One last chance to thank Flat Breezy)

106 votes

Felix Pie (2-4, RBI, R, super sub OF)

9 votes

347 votes | Poll has closed

Red Sox 12, Orioles 1: Totally Rad!

SC — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:03:43 -0000

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Let me say this but one time, and hope it's the last time I have to say it for a long while: Radhames Liz is terrible. He was terrible last year, and somehow he's even worse this year. When the Orioles demoted him from starting pitcher to bullpen fodder for the Tides, I think it sent a message that the staff and the coaches and the front office and everyone knew Liz wasn't really very good. When you're 25 and have been looked at as a starting pitcher your entire career and you get bumped down to relief work, and it's not caused by an injury that has affected your ability to pitch a lot of innings, it's not a good sign.

Liz wasn't the real problem today. Even if someone pitches his one-third of an inning and doesn't allow any runs at all and the six that came in earned on him don't happen, the Orioles got ripped for their fifth straight loss in a row, completing a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox -- who came in struggling, mind you -- at Fenway Park. Take those six runs off the board and Boston still comfortably wins, 6-1.

But Liz now has a season ERA of 67.50. He has gotten 1.1 innings of work in and surrendered TEN EARNED RUNS.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm guessing a week in Norfolk wasn't really long enough for him to get acclimated to relief pitching, which is surely different than starting. (It might also just be me, but I don't think he's ever going to stick around no matter what he's doing.)

But I'm not trying to pile on Liz and nothing more, though surely they've seen enough that he needs to be sent back down to Norfolk in exchange for literally anybody with a healthy arm. Look, bottom line before I really move on: The team made a career decision for Liz and then gave him a week of real baseball to work on it before they threw him into the fire. There are guys in Norfolk that have been relieving for years and even if they aren't great, could certainly be doing better than this. It is clear Liz isn't ready. He might never be. And yeah it's a rebuilding year and that's great, but putting Liz on the hill right now is like asking the other team to score. Period. I don't expect to contend, but giving the games away by putting completely incompetent players on the field is another story.

And I'll exhale...

The offense was limp for the second game in a row, scoring once in the third inning when Cesar Izturis got Robby Andino in from third base. Andino came into the game to play third base after Ryan Freel (who started at third) was drilled in the back of the head, near his ear on a pickoff attempt at second base by Justin Masterson. It kind of looked like Freel was knocked out solid in mid-dive, because the ball hit him and he faceplanted pretty hard into the dirt. He was down and not moving for a minute or two, and looked really groggy as he was helped off the field. Hopefully he's OK, but I wouldn't rule out a concussion.

Mark Hendrickson played with fire and had a bad first two innings, but he got out of there after five innings having allowed just three earned. And then the bullpen tanked it something fierce:

IP H R ER BB K HR Season ERA

M. Hendrickson (L, 1-2) 5.0 5 3 3 3 6 1 3.86

D. Sarfate 1.0 4 3 3 1 1 0 7.36

R. Liz 0.1 3 6 6 1 0 0 67.50

M. Albers 1.2 3 0 0 0 1 0 5.87

Albers finished it out OK, so that was nice.

For the life of me, I don't understand why all the writers and commentators and everyone keep going, "Well the bullpen was supposed to be good, it was supposed to be the rotation that had issues." What bullpen were they looking at? Sarfate has major command issues and one plus pitch (a hard fastball), Johnson is a sinkerballer that was absolutely bound to regress from last season because his K-to-BB really stunk for a guy with an ERA that low, and Sherrill was junk in the second half. Add that to Walker coming off a terrible year, Ray coming off of a season lost to injury, Albers with some arm issues, Danys Baez coming off of a season lost to injury and a rotten one before that, and coaching staff love child Brian Bass (batters are hitting .386 off of him) and I just don't see where this solid bullpen was supposedly coming from. There was a chance it was going to be decent, but it was 50-50 at best, man. The other 50 is winning right now.

I said last season and this spring that knowing your team isn't there to contend and accepting it mentally is one thing, but watching them fail so dramatically hard is another thing entirely. It's frustrating, it's maddening, and it's painful. Everyone winds up wanting the quick fix. "Get rid of this guy, bring up that guy!" It's easy to say, but there's hardly any guarantee that Lou Montanez or Brad Bergesen or any of these guys are going to fare any better. They got Pie to play left field because MacPhail believes in him, so like it or not we're stuck with Pie, his awful glove and his 5-for-34 start at the plate for the time being. They needlessly picked up Adam Eaton in spring training even though they already had 36 pitchers in camp, and he's exactly what we expected.

My point is, this team is going to anger you mightily many, many days. There may seem to be obvious fixes to at least upgrade to mediocrity instead of wastes of time, but they're going to let Pie play himself out of the position. He has no options left, they traded for him, he's going to play. And they went to the trouble of signing Adam Eaton for God knows what reason -- nobody say "to eat innings" because he doesn't eat innings, he just stinks and then gets hurt -- so Eaton is going to pitch for a bit.

And just remember: We all knew this team wasn't going to be good, and if you expected a repeat of last year's offense, I don't know what to tell you there.

Final note: Gregg Zaun can't hit for beans.

Poll

Most Birdland Player (MBP) for today's game was:

Mark Hendrickson (5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K)

65 votes

Ryan Freel (1-for-1)

41 votes

Cesar Izturis (1-for-4, RBI)

7 votes

Matt Albers (1.2 IP, 3 H)

42 votes

155 votes | Poll has closed

Rangers 19, Orioles 6: Yes, Virginia, 19

SC — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 03:55:47 -0000

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They didn't make it to 30 this time, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, both from the Rangers' bats and the Orioles' pitchers.

Mark Hendrickson was officially charged with just two of the nine runs surrendered in his second start of the season (3.2 IP), but then came Radhames Liz, Brian Bass and Matt Albers.

Liz and Albers were called up to replaced the DL'd Alfredo Simon and Melvin Mora, and both were lit up, as was Bass. Check out these sexy lines, ladies and gentlemen:

Name	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Season ERA
R Liz	1.0	5	4	4	1	1	36.00
B Bass	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	14.73
M Albers	1.1	4	4	4	1	2	11.25

Yee-haw! Woo!

For the Rangers: Ian Kinsler was 6-for-6, hitting for the cycle. He hit two doubles, a triple, a homer, and two singles, scored five times, and drove in four. Nelson Cruz had a grand slam and six total RBIs, going 2-for-5. Marlon Byrd was 5-for-6 with 3 RBIs. DH Andruw Jones had my favorite line, though: 1-for-3, 2 BBs, 4 runs scored.

For the Orioles: Erm, Chad Moeller hit a homer, and so did Adam Jones. We did have a 2-0 lead after the top half of the first inning. Jones also hit his sixth double and had three RBIs.

The team's pattern is to win the first two and then get completely embarrassed in the third game. This "well we won two!" thing is nice and all, but it completely ignores the probability that the team is a lot closer to their 11-3 and 19-6 losses than they are the 6-0 wins. At 6-3, they've been outscored by opponents 69-56. Continued success like that is unlikely; the '07 Diamondbacks did something similar, but it's very rare.

Pretty freaking ugly game, to say the least. Tomorrow we kick off a four-game series with the Red Sox at Fenway.

Katie, bar the door.

One more note: Alfredo Simon is expected to be out a while and the doctor he met with feels the condition in his elbow is degenerative. That's a real shame and could threaten his career. Albert Belle retired with a degenerative hip condition, and Troy Percival has battled through one for years now, and hasn't been close to the pitcher he was in his prime. Mora will probably be back soon.

Poll

Most Birdland Player (MBP) for today's game was:

Adam Jones (2-for-4, HR, 3 RBI, 2B, 2 R)

99 votes

Chad Moeller (1-for-4, HR, RBI)

2 votes

Robby Andino (1-for-1, R, BB)

2 votes

Jamie Walker (yesterday he gave Koji boots)

72 votes

175 votes | Poll has closed

Rotation Shakedown: O's decide Liz's future is in the bullpen

SC — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:16:33 -0000

Source: The Sun

Radhames Liz has been dropped from consideration for the 2009 Opening Day rotation, as the Orioles have decided it's 99.99999% likely that Liz's future is in the bullpen:

"I don't think it's ever for good. You never say never," Kranitz said. "But I think at this particular time with our needs, his quality of pitches, he'll be able to handle that middle part of the game in the sixth and seventh innings. It's not rocket science. He's got to come in and throw the ball over the dish. It will be a lot easier for him in one-inning spurts, where he can kind of let it go."

Dave Trembley said that if Liz doesn't make the 25-man roster (also a possibility), he'll be pitching in relief at Norfolk.

In this year's edition of The Hardball Times season preview, I wrote the following for Liz:

Yet another Orioles arm from the last decade who appears to either be a lot of empty promise or better suited for a bullpen role, Radhames Liz got to take his lumps for 84 innings in Baltimore, and the results weren't pretty. At 25, he still has time, but not a ton of it with the influx of young pitching talent in the system.

Now this hardly makes me a scholar. I've said for three years that Liz was a reliever or bust, and I've been about 96% certain of that. My thoughts were the same ones Kranitz expressed, that if able to really let it fly for an inning or two, he could dominate if he can throw strikes. Stretched out and seeing lineups a few times, he didn't seem to have either the raw stuff or the, um, pitching acumen (?) to really go too far.

That means that with Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara solidified as the 1-2 in the rotation, the three open spots are now down to eight guy: Baez, Bass, Bergesen, Eaton, Hendrickson, Hill, Pauley and Penn. It will be better for everyone on earth if Baez, Hendrickson and Eaton do not play into our rotation this season. That means they weren't good enough to beat out younger guys with far higher ceilings, even if they aren't the greatest young pitchers on the planet.

Chris Waters, says the Sun article, is also destined for relief. I think he's destined for waiver wires and AAA ballparks.

I guess I'll go ahead and throw out my hopeful picks for the final three spots: Hill, Pauley and Penn. I thought Pauley was a shrewd pickup this offseason, I'm still rooting for Penn even though I've been "down" on him, and Rich Hill you gotta root for because of all the guys we're talking about here (including Guts and Koji) he has the best stuff. I'm intrigued by Brad Bergesen but those K-rates will get him annihilated in the majors, I fear.

That would leave us with Guthrie, Koji, Hill, Pauley and Penn, which means we'd only have one lefty starter, but I'm not crazy about all that stuff. I remember the last time the Orioles thought they JUST HAD TO HAVE a left-handed starter and we got freaking Omar Daal because the last one we'd had was Jimmy Key. Just had to have Omar Daal! Omar Daal, Omar Daal!

Those five guys could give us a competent rotation. Chances are we finish last no matter who's in the rotation, but it'd be a lot more damned fun to figure out if some of these guys can play than it would be to fart around with Baez and Hendrickson and Eaton, all of whom I am quite certain cannot. Baez was a bad signing when we made it, and if Hendrickson came off the scrap heap then I don't want to know where in the hell it was they dug up Adam Eaton.

As for Liz himself, do his chances of making it in the majors go up with the role switch? Probably not. He either can pitch or he can't is one way to look at it, but deeper than that is I just don't think he's all that good. He doesn't miss that many bats for a guy whose control kind of stinks. And relievers are volatile by nature anyway. That said, I think this is his best chance to make it long-term. He's not going to become the next Eckersley or anything. He might be the next David Riske or something.

Know Thy Enemy: Baltimore Orioles, 2009 Preview

hugo — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 23:23:48 -0000

This is the first in a 4-part series examining the Jays' competition in the AL East.

The Baltimore Orioles had another tough season in 2008, losing 90 or more games for the 3rd consecutive season and failing to finish above .500 for the 11th year in a row. There were some bright spots, however, and the O's hope to improve in 2009 in an increasingly tough AL East. The O's weren't playing all that badly until the end of the season, when they went an almost unthinkably awful 5-20 in September to close out the season.

Projected Possible Lineup : (I'm not giving a lot of thought to batting order)

Vs. LHP
2B - Brian Roberts
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - Ty Wigginton
3B - Melvin Mora
1B - Aubrey Huff
LF - Luke Scott/Felix Pie
C - Gregg Zaun
SS - Cesar Izturis

Vs. RHP
2B - Brian Roberts
LF - Felix Pie
RF - Nick Markakis
1B - Aubrey Huff
DH - Luke Scott
3B - Melvin Mora
CF - Adam Jones
C - Gregg Zaun
SS- Cesar Izturis

4th OF - Ty Wigginton (also 1B/3B/DH)
Bench - Ryan Freel, IF/OF
Lou Montanez, OF
Guillermo Quiroz, C

Although Zaun is penciled in here as catcher, in truth it is likely that the young Matt Wieters will soon work his way into the everyday lineup and become an offensive force - the only question is when. Wieters is one of the best prospects in baseball and is expected to both hit a ton and do a great job behind the dish, so his development is one of the biggest stories of the season for Baltimore.

Baltimore's offense in 2008 was almost exactly league average (team OPS+ of 99), due to a few holes, most glaringly at SS. They patched that hole by bringing in former Jay Ceasar Izturis, who isn't much with the bat but will bring some stability to the position and plays fine defense. The O's also signed Gregg Zaun to play catcher - Z-Man will bring his Z-game and his love of "heavy metal" (which to him apparently means Guns N' Roses) to start the season as the everyday catcher and then move into a mentor role as Wieters hopefully comes into his own. Not satisfied, Baltimore brought in Ty Wigginton, who has a nice bat and is versatile and makes a nice match for lefthanded hitters Huff, Scott, and Pie.

Melvin Mora is interesting, he looked to be in steep decline over the past few seasons and then for the first half last year, but then went nuts in the second half, hitting .376/.417/.656 after the all-star break. He wasn't great on defense (-4.8 UZR), but finished with a quality 114 OPS+ to make him a 2.5 win player, his best season since 2005. Aubrey Huff also had a big rebound year -- his .387 wOBA was the best of his career and he hit 32 dingers. Luke Scott continued to hit righties fairly well (.838 OPS) but again showed why he is a platoon player (.702 OPS against lefties). Adam Jones struggled at the plate (.711 OPS), really struggling with his pitch recognition and plate discipline, but was absolutely fantastic in the field (10.3 UZR in center), making him a 2.2 win player. And Brian Roberts had another excellent year as one of the league's premier second basemen and leadoff men, getting on base at a .378 clip, hitting 51 doubles, and swiping 40 bags at a nice 80% success rate. The O's will be countin on all five of those gentlemen, as well as their new acquisitions and of course, Markakis (.306/.406/.491 last season) who has developed from a promising young player to a well-rounded star with no holes in his game at all.

The O's offense should be better, since they have added some nice depth and some young players are continuing to develop. Mora is old, but Huff and Wigginton can both play third, as can Freel, so there's some cover there.

Projected Rotation I'm including 6 starters, because history shows that most teams have a 6th starter who makes about as many starts as the 5th starter, due to injuries/ineffectiveness in the 5-man rotation. However, in the O's case, there are a number of potential 6th starters.

RHP - Jeremy Guthrie
RHP - Koji Uehara
LHP - Rich Hill
LHP - Mark Hendrickson
RHP - Radhames Liz
RHP/RHP/LHP - Hayden Penn/Matt Albers/Chris Waters

Baltimore got a quality season from Jeremy Guthrie last year (3.63 ERA) although, while he perhaps had more than the 10 wins he got coming to him based on how many runs were scored against him, his defense-independent numbers (4.53 FIP, 5.66 K/9, .267 BABIP against, 101 tRA+) suggest that he may have actually been quite fortunate in 2008. He is likely to give the Orioles another solid year.

After Guthrie, Baltimore's rotation was an absolute mess last season. They were the worst rotation in the AL (with a 5.51 team ERA), and also finished last in the league both in strikeouts and walks (actually pretty crazy since low strikeout pitchers typically at least limit walks), with a staggeringly bad team 1.30 K/BB ratio. Daniel Cabrera (30 starts, 86 ERA+,1.05 K/BB ratio), Garrett Olson (26 starts, 6.65 ERA), Radhames Liz (17 starts, 6.72 ERA), and current Jay spring training invitee Brian Burres (22 starts, 6.04 ERA, 1.13 K/BB ratio) were the most significant contributors to the damage, although the O's also got 10 very bad starts from Steve Trachsel (8.28 ERA). The good news for the O's is that none of these gentlemen, other than perhaps Liz, is likely to factor heavily in the Orioles 2009 rotation plans.

The Orioles signed 2-time Sawamura award (the award in the NPB going to the best starting pitcher in the Japanese league) winner Koji Uehara in what is looking like a pretty shrewd move. Uehara seems like a good bet even in the AL East and is set to begin 2009 as Baltimore's number 2 starter. Baltimore also made a nice move to acquire former Cubs lefty Rich Hill, who is an interesting case. Hill had a good half season as a 26-year old and an excellent (119 ERA+) season as a 27-year old for the Cubbies before completely falling apart in 2008, spending most of the season in the minor leagues and showing absolutely no control at all, walking almost a batter per inning. Hill also floundered in Winter ball this year, but if he can get his control back, he's a quality lefthanded starter with good K numbers. His flyball tendencies are going haunt him a bit, especially in the cozy confines of Camden Yards and the AL East, but a nice low-risk pickup for Baltimore, since it's not like he's blocking anyone.

Baltimore also picked up former Jay Mark Hendrickson who, while he has no means been an above-average pitcher over his career (89 ERA+ career), is better than what 4/5 of what the O's had out there last season and is at least capable of being a #5 starter (though not sure how well he will fare in the AL East).

The O's rotation should be better in 2009 than it was in 2008. That's not saying much, I know, but Uehara looks like a solid addition, while Guthrie isn't anything special but should continue to enjoy modest success, giving them at least 2 average or better starters. Hill has plenty of potential and Hendrickson will usually manage not to embarass himself on the mound. And Baltimore does have some young starters with potential.

Significant Bullpen Members

LHP George Sherrill (closer)
RHP Chris Ray (setup)
RHP Jim Johnson
RHP Dennis Sarfate
LHP Jamie Walker

The Orioles bullpen tried valiantly to pick up the slack left by an awful starting rotation (it was 3rd in the AL in innings), and helped to limit the damage, although a 4.59 team bullpen ERA is nothing to shout about. Closer George Sherrill isn't really what you want from a closer or bullpen ace, and he could lose his job to Chris Ray, who previously performed those duties before going down to arm surgery back in 2007. However, Ray is coming off a major surgery and is a question mark himself. On the other hand, Jim Johnson had a great season last year out of the pen, pitching in 54 games with a 2.23 ERA, and he will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance given his unimpressive strikeout and walk numbers (38/28 K/BB ratio over 68 2/3 innings, and shutting the league out from hitting a homer, like he did in 2008, is always tough to repeat). LOOGY Jamie Walker had an awful season out of the pen (1.68 WHIP, 6.87 ERA, almost 3 home runs per 9 innings) but will look to rebound. hard-thrower Danys Baez will also return from surgery, but I was never a big fan of his, and that was before he got hurt.

In Summary

Having attended Law School in Baltimore, a city with some hilarious nicknames: "Charm City," "the Land of Pleasant Living," and "the City that Reads" (though more often referred to by locals as "the City that Bleeds"), I have a soft spot for the Orioles, having enjoyed many home games at Camden Yards following a pint or two at Pickles Pub, including a bunch when I should've been in class. I like the Uehara pickup, and it looks like the O's are finally on the right track with an excellent farm system and some quality young players. I don't think 2009 will be the year, though. The problem will be pitching - Uehara will help, and Hill and Hendrickson really can't hurt, but B-more's young arms in the majors haven't proven anything despite several shots. What Baltimore is likely to do on the mound just isn't good enough in the AL, let alone the AL East. The Orioles have solid pitching prospects in Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta, but none are real close to pitching in the majors. Baltimore may hit more and pitch a little better, but I don't see them making up the gap between themselves and the rest of the AL East.

37 comments on 37 pitchers in camp for the Orioles

SC — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:02:30 -0000

The Sun and Jeff Zrebiec had this idea, and they did it with a photo gallery and tiny, barely-viewable short comments about all the pitchers. I liked the idea so much that I'm stealing it and hoping to add a little more in terms of commentary. What can I say? I like to talk.

Matt Albers, RH

Albers put up a 3.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 49 innings for the O's last season before coming up injured (like fellow former Astro Troy Patton) and deciding to forgo surgery in favor of rehabbing, which often leads to...surgery. But he wasn't a blue chip guy to begin with. His three starts were tolerable last season but he looked better out of the bullpen, which is where he probably projects long-term. Likely not a real factor in 2009, but here's hoping we see Fat Albers back on the field at some point.

Jake Arrieta, RH

If you want to be a super sleuth and dig around the site, you'll be able to find out I was jacked, geeked, psyched and pumped when the O's opened up their wallets to sign Arrieta as a fifth round draft pick out of TCU. Arrieta and Wieters in the same class? Zwaaa!

In fact, I might be one of Arrieta's biggest fans. His W-L record means nothing and isn't impressive (6-5 at Frederick), but he was outstanding in his first pro season, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.56 K/9 rate for the Keys. I currently rate Arrieta as our third-best prospect behind Wieters and Tillman, but readily admit Matusz should probably be No. 2 or at least No. 3.

Still, we're talking about three guys that could be long-term parts of the rotation relatively soon. Arrieta has college polish, as does Matusz, and Tillman is rocketing through the minors. Dude still can't drink legally.

I don't want to get all Four Aces or Generation K about it (since those didn't turn out so hot), but man...MAN!

(And because you have to have it.)

More important than all the good numbers and promise re: Arrieta is the fact that Stacey thinks he's hot.

Danys Baez, RH

Let's cut the crap: Danys Baez was a rotten signing when the Orioles got him and he's turned out even worse than you could have imagined. 2007 was a disaster, and in 2008 he did the fans a favor and didn't pitch. That might sound mean, and it's not like I want him to be injured, but in the long run I probably lost less hair for it, so thanks, Danys. Talks of him starting have gone by the wayside. I really don't think we're going to see much at all of Baez this season. If he stinks, they're just going to get rid of him.

Brian Bass, RH

One of a million dudes who might win a rotation spot. Bass, now 27, has been in pro ball since 2000. He made it to The Show in 2008 with the Twins, appearing as a reliever on 44 occasions, and then was traded to the O's where he started four games because that was the state of the '08 Orioles. "Got an arm?" "Like, a good one?" "No, just an arm! We need it!" Bass' career minor league ERA is 4.32 and he doesn't strike anyone out. He does have good control, so that's something. At least he'll throw strikes.

Brad Bergesen, RH

Bergesen's '08 cracked a lot of O's prospect lists, including ours at No. 14. He went 15-6 with a 3.22/1.15 line at Bowie. He lives on a ridiculously fine line, though, with his 4.38 K/9. He has to kind of be perfect. In a perfect world he could be our Justin Duchscherer.

Alberto Castillo, LH

Strengths: Throws with left hand. Once a third round draft choice of the Giants.

Weaknesses: That draft was in 1994. Castillo's career:

June 2, 1994: Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 3rd round of the 1994 amateur draft.

November 11, 1997: Traded by the San Francisco Giants with Chris Singleton to the New York Yankees for Charlie Hayes and cash.

January 26, 1999: Released by the New York Yankees.

February 16, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

March 28, 1999: Released by the Chicago White Sox.

February 29, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Diego Padres.

March 31, 2000: Released by the San Diego Padres.

December 17, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 7, 2002: Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 15, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the St. Louis Cardinals.

March 30, 2003: Released by the St. Louis Cardinals.

January 28, 2008: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

So, y'know. He's "32," which in Cuban years could mean he's 41, and it took him almost 15 years to reach the majors. His ERA (3.81) is a mirage. If they're relying on him, bad things gon' happen. They likely are not.

Scott Chiasson, RH

Chiasson is 31 now, a Connecticut native that played college ball at Eastern Connecticut State, whatever in the hell that is. Being from a large state, I can't imagine really considering the road trip that takes one from "eastern" Connecticut to "western" Connecticut. Eastern to western Michigan is a three and a half hour trip by interstate.

Chiasson is one of a million former Cubs from the MacPhail era that has managed a way into the O's system. He was originally drafted by the Royals in 1998, then traded to the A's as a PTBNL for Jay Witasick (former Oriole, sort of). The Cubs nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft in December 2000 and he got cups of coffee in '01 and '02. He's just a body.

Fredy Deza, RH

6'2" and stick-thin. The Sun lists his 2.25 ERA at Norfolk, which came over a grand eight innings of work. He turned 26 in December and has been pitching Orioles A-ball forever. They seem to have officially given up on him as a starter the last few years.

DEEEEEZ...

Jeremy Guthrie, RH

He's the ace. He's not the world's best ace, but he's our ace, damn it. Truthfully, the world will be awesome if Guthrie is the fourth starter in 2010 or 2011. I say that with all love for Guts. When I did the Hardball Times preview, I noted that Guthrie is a guy who's always going to be projected to tail off from numbers like he's put up the last two years, and I really believe he's got more of the last two years in him, and that it's not really a fluke. He's just a good, solid pitcher.

During the NBA All-Star Weekend, I watched the three-point contest, which was horrendous because Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller are like having Tim McCarver and Thom Brennaman in the same booth. When Danny Granger was up, Kenny must have said "he's a scorer not a shooter" 17 times. Guthrie's a pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower.

Kenny later predicted that none of the three remaining guys in the tournament could win.

Mark Hendrickson, LH

Hendo hasn't even thrown a pitch as a Baltimore Oriole and he's been ripped here plenty. Not by me -- I'm all for letting him stink first. And he will stink. Speaking of basketball, this dude's a failed basketball player. He's 6'9" and can't strike anyone out. The good news is he also doesn't walk many guys and does have minor value as a swingman. The bad news is he's 35 and was horrible last season in Florida.

Brad Hennessey, RH

Once, long ago, Hennessey was a Giants prospect. He's now a failed Giants prospect on board with the Orioles, and he'll be starting the first game of the spring against the Mets. That happens TODAY! WOO!

Hennessey is a Toledo native that attended Youngstown State (the penguin school where that damned Jim Tressel coached before he took over at Vomit State).

He was pretty effective in 2007 as a fill-in closer for the Giants, saving 19 games and putting up a 3.42 ERA. But the fact is the Giants lost all faith in him a while ago. At 29, time's a-wastin' and it's either on the train or off. The Orioles are going to give him a shot, and they have no reason to not. It's a noble move. Former prospect, has shown he can pitch in the majors (if briefly), and still young enough to wring some good years. If he doesn't make it, big whoop. If he does, he could be Guthrie Part II, a super cheap pickup that flamed out elsewhere and latched on here. No harm no foul either way.

David Hernandez, RH

Now univerally considered one of our ten best prospects, and yet still sort of a sleeper guy thanks to his surroundings in the arms department. Common sense says that eventually bats catch up to his fastball-slider combo since he's not Randy Johnson or anything, and that a relief role may best suit him. I mean, that's said basically all the time, but it bears repeating just because it's true. It's logic. It's hard to get by on two pitches as a major league starter. Still, he was excellent at Bowie last season and surpassed expectations.

Rich Hill, LH

MacPhail Salvation Project No. 39. If Rich Hill needed a change of scenery, he's got it. If his physical problems are corrected, there's a LOT of upside. If it's mental, that's a tough game to win. He's wilder than all hell, but now there's almost no pressure on him. I think we as O's fans do deserve credit for patience. It took a long time for most of y'all to start railing on Daniel Cabrera as hard as I did from 2006 on, and he'd damn sure earned it.

I don't think any of us expect the moon of Hill, and I assure him should he happen to ever somehow stumble upon it, we're all rootin' for ya, dude. Welcome to Baltimore. Feel free to get comfortable and relax.

Jim Hoey, RH

Have never been a fan. Knew dudes that looked like Jim Hoey in high school. They were all goobers. Straight-up goobers. That's not really his fault. I shouldn't be mean. Maybe he's not a goober.

He missed all of 2008 with a shoulder surgery, and that hardly helps his case. Even before that there were a lot of issues.

Jim Johnson, RH

I used to be a massive pro wrestling fan, which we've been over a bunch. I still like the old stuff. I don't remember ever NOT being a pro wrestling fan. I do remember being five years old and begging my grandparents to order WrestleMania III. I couldn't wrap my mind around the fact that pay-per-view just was not available in our area at the time. On I went with life.

Anyway, signs in the crowd became a big deal in the late 1990s, and one of my favorite signs ever was very simple: "STING YOUR COOL." If I ever went to see Jim Johnson, I'd take a sign that said, "JIM YOUR COOL."

My favorite sign ever, by the way, was "RAY TRAYLOR IS MY FAVORITE PROFESSIONAL WRESTLER." Either that or "I LIKE CURT HENNIG."

Jim is cool. Projections have a hard time taking into account sinkerballers sometimes, plus Jim's track record is short. But he was excellent setting up Sherrill last year and there's really no reason he shouldn't be competing for a rotation spot or the closer's role. I've got nothing against George Sherrill or Chris Ray, but I think I can say that at this moment, I'd be more comfortable with Big Jim in the ninth.

Ryan Keefer, RH

Instead of assessing Keefer's chances, I'll just post the Sun's stock photo of him, because he looks so gosh darn happy:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Radhames Liz, RH

Liz, like the departed Garrett Olson, crashed and burned in a trial by fire last season in the Orioles rotation. Chances are strong he'll be in the Opening Day starting five because the Orioles have put a lot of stock into him over the last few years, and because he went out and took his lumps like a man last year. I've been saying for about three years he looks like a reliever (and not a particularly great one) to me, but there's more value if he starts, and until he proves he absolutely cannot start in the majors, it's better to start him if he's going to pitch at all at this age. Liz has very mild breakout potential in 2009.

Brian Matusz, LH

The Wieters of pitchers. That's grossly overstating Matusz's prospectdom, but I don't care. I'm rolling with it. You got a problem, dude, meet me after class and we'll hash this s**t out. I don't even care. Let's go!

Bob McCrory, RH

Bob McCrory is the goober that hung around with goobers like Jim Hoey in high school. Jim might've started a couple fights, but Bob usually got in there and took it for him and socked someone in the nose. Bob McCrory looks like he enjoys a good PBR on a warm summer's eve. I like Bob McCrory more than I do Jim Hoey, but I still don't want to hang out with them too often, if you know what I'm sayin'.

Kam Mickolio, RH

Mickolio's biggest obstacle is experience. Real experience. Experience in playing baseball. Not a ton of organized baseball in Montana, where he grew up. He's still a baby in this game. I don't think he'll be amazing, but I do think he'll cut out a regular role for himself in the bullpen by July. He has the best heat in the system, and he also looks like the subject of Honey, I Blew Up Nomar Garciaparra:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Jim Miller, RH

Came over in the Roddy Lopez trade with the Rockies. Anything positive he can do is gravy on top of not having Rodrigo Lopez on the team.

Andy Mitchell, RH

Mitchell's been in the O's system since turning pro in 2001, and he's 30 years old now. He started strictly as a relief pitcher, but the last two seasons has gone swingman in Norfolk, where he'll stay as long as he's employed by the Orioles. In an organization with as many horrible staffs as this one has had since he's been around, Andy's never even gotten an inning for the O's despite a career ERA of 3.59 in 650+ minor league innings. That kind of says it all.

John Parrish, LH

I know I'm half-halfassed analyst and half-doofy fan in this thing, but if you believe one thing I'm saying is genuine, believe this: Pass.

Troy Patton, LH

From the guy I'm furious is back to the guy I'm still stoked to see suit up for our Birds. Patton missed all of 2008 with the dreaded fabrum bear, but he's ready to sling this spring, and I like this dude's attitude. He's like the 13-3 football team that just won the conference championship. "No one said we could do dis! They all said we couldn't do dis!" Nah, dude, I think you can do dis. Go do dat.

David Pauley, RH

Pauley's been workmanlike in the systems of both San Diego and Boston since '01, and last year went 14-4 with Pawtucket. He also pitched 12 1/3 innings for the Red Sox and was lit the hell up for 23 hits and 16 earned runs (11.68 ERA). Oops! Pauley has an outside shot at the rotation, but it's more outside than it might seem given his AAA record last year. He's really nothing special at all, but I quite like the Orioles giving him a shot.

Hayden Penn, RH

True story: I always wanted to name a son Hayden, mostly because of my love for Coach, and also because I didn't think I could convince any woman to let me name a son Luther. My fiancee may allow me to someday name a son Magic Johnson Christ, which I think is kind of awesome. (And before anyone starts, I know she's just humoring me. Let me have my dreams.)

Penn's had one of the damnedest careers you'll ever see, including being impaled, and while it's worth noting that he's not all that old still (he turned 24 last October), I think this is sort of a case of a guy being older than his age, like in boxing when Erik Morales got really old at 28. Too many things happened. Too many wars. I think maybe Penn doesn't just "seem" older, he might figuratively be older than 24.

Wilfrido Perez, RH

A 24-year old relief prospect, Perez put up some nice K-rates in the low levels before tapering off to just under 9 K/9 at Bowie in 23 innings. He absolutely dominated in 81 innings at Delmarva in 2007, posting a 1.67 ERA and striking out 101 batters. He's generally had so-so (at best) WHIP numbers because he doesn't have the best control (it's also not awful) and he's hittable (7 H/9 career).

Chris Ray, RH

Sugar Ray is back in action and will have a shot at taking the closer's job he left behind when he missed all of 2008. He deserves it if he can handle it, because even though he was not dominant, he's going to be better in the role than Sherrill. Again, Johnson might be a much better option than either of them, but he's "never closed before." Not like super veteran Ray or All-Star George.

Dennis Sarfate, RH

He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher.

George Sherrill, LH

My favorite part of the 2008 Orioles Magic DVD "making of" is when Millar and Sherrill obviously set up an "impromptu" "quick-witted" joke where Millar goes, "George, you look like Vin Diesel," and then Sherrill goes, "Let'sgetsomethinstraight. VinDiesellookslikeme." And it's like, OHHH!

Alfredo Simon, RH

Another guy inching toward 30 with bad minor league numbers that got ripped up in a short stint last year. He's horrible. He has no business on the team. Zrebiec's comment is, "That he managed to stay on the 40-man roster all offseason says something." What? The Orioles forgot about him?

Chorye Spoone, RH

Still rehabbing and won't be healthy to start the year, but in camp anyway. I forget which one of you likes Spoone way more than I do. Show yourself! If he was Tim Spooneybarger's brother, I'd like him more. He was down-and-up even before the injury.

Chris Tillman, RH

Dear Old Seattle Mariners Front Office,

In times of trouble where you've been fired and all that, sometimes it helps to hear from the people whose lives you've touched in a very positive manner. When you traded Chris Tillman, Adam Jones, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler for Erik Bedard, you did something great for us, and we're going to be thankful for many years to come.

We know that Mr. Bedard didn't work out so great for you in 2008 and at least partially led to you all getting thrown out on your behinds, but we Orioles fans wanted you to know that we still have a soft spot for you.

And if you see Eric O'Flaherty, tell him we said hello.

Kindest Regards,

Orioles Fans

Koji Uehara, RH

He is not going to be Daisuke Matsuzaka. The best we can really hope for is he isn't Kei Igawa either. The latter is far, far, far more likely than the former.

Chris Waters, LH

Zrebiec actually pulled the "no one thinks he can do dis!" card in his Waters comment. That's because he probably can't. He had two exceptional starts for the Orioles and treaded on thin ice otherwise.

Jamie Walker, LH

Jamie Waker, Boy, could star as Will Ferrell's impersonation of George W. Bush in a movie:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Walker is so close to the end of his line that it might be really painful to watch him unless he's pulled some rabbit out of the hat after last year. When guys whose fastballs are offspeed pitches start to fail, it's usually pretty gruesome. He was lobbing BP last year.

Ross Wolf, RH

Former Marlin. Probably here because Kranitz knows him.

Newsies: Baltimore Orioles Nick Markakis Adam Jones Felix Pie Oscar Salazar ZAUN Nickelodeon

SC — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 20:07:38 -0000

Yahoo! does these "Team Reports" and since I'm super bored, I thought we could shoot the sh breeze about the tidbits contained within.

Felix Pie gives the Orioles one of the youngest, best defensive outfields in baseball.
The former Cubs center field prospect likely will get every opportunity to win the left field job after coming over in a trade for left-hander Garrett Olson and a low-level minor league pitcher. At worst, he’ll platoon with utility man Ryan Freel.

Pie, 24, teams with rangy center fielder Adam Jones, 23, and newly signed right fielder Nick Markakis, 25, who led baseball with 17 outfield assists last year.

However, the left-handed hitting Pie hasn’t translated his above-average minor league numbers to the majors, where he failed in two stints with the Cubs. He’ll likely bat in the lower third of the order, but—if he produces—could see some at-bats in the No. 1 or No. 2 slots to utilize his speed.

"Utilize his speed"? Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter in the minors, with a 63% steal rate. He hit .287/.336/.466 and was 11-for-18 stealing bases with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs in 2008 (335 AB). It was a big regression for a guy in his age 23 season, and not exactly the sort of line I'd want to see perched at the top of the lineup. He's got really bad K-to-BB numbers for a potential top of the order guy, too. Felix looks like a bottom order hitter to me even if he succeeds in sticking around, which is certainly no guarantee. He has bombed in major league play (.223/.284/.331 in 260 AB).

I'd say I'm not trying to harsh Felix's buzz but I don't think Felix has much buzz left. Getting traded for Garrett Olson sort of gave me the impression the Cubs have flat-out given up on Pie, and usually when a team gives up on a guy, it's not good news. Yeah, I know, we gave up on John Maine and the Indians gave up on Jeremy Guthrie. Success stories do happen. But I'd also point out that Maine is merely a league average pitcher (the sting there gets a little better every year, even if we could use about four more league average pitchers) and that Guthrie's mid-career rebound is very rare. This trial with the Orioles is probably Pie's last best shot at becoming a major league regular. There are new players coming down the line every single year, and he's 24 now, so he can only ride the reputation as the Cubs' former top prospect so much longer.

Mostly I just think it's silly to consider Pie as a No. 1 or No. 2 hitter even if he hits, because his level of "if he hits" would have to surpass most everyone's expectations for him to be a better option up there than what's in place.

Of course Mora could collapse, leaving Markakis in the three hole, and then someone does have to hit second, which I'd sooner guess would be Adam Jones than Pie, but Jones' power might develop some more, which would probably make him the three hitter to break up Markakis and Huff (two lefties), instead of going Roberts-Pie-Markakis-Huff-Scott (five left-handed bats in a row on RHP days), but really it's more likely that Trembley leaves Mora somewhere in the middle of the lineup almost no matter what happens, because that's how Diamond Dave rolls. But I guess if all hell broke loose or Brian Roberts needed a day off, Felix Pie might hit leadoff in order to utilize his speed.

Luke Scott, the primary starter in left field last season, will take his powerful left-handed swing and average-at-best defense to the designated hitter slot.
Right-handed hitting Lou Montanez might be able to crack the outfield picture, as well, if he can improve upon his defense.

We've had the discussions in comments recently, but Did You Know? that Luke Scott actually scored quite well in many defensive metrics for 2008? I know some of you statophobes that see with your eyes, MAN, can't be bothered with such nincompoopery, but it's science and maths, deal with it. Luke Scott is not the butcher he's sometimes made out to be. He is a totally adequate left fielder.

Lou Montanez might be able to crack the outfield picture, as well, if he can defy logic.

Markakis’ contract should go a long way toward convincing second baseman and impending free agent Brian Roberts to consider a long term contract extension. The Orioles and Roberts, their 31-year-old leadoff hitter, have been far apart on figures for most of the offseason, according to most reports.

I don't really know why Markakis' contract would go a long way toward convincing Brian Roberts to sign a long term contract extension, and truth be told as much as I like Roberts and see him being fine the next few seasons, I don't think he's so good that you want to crack the checkbook for five years or anything.

Adam Jones might be on the verge of a breakout season. After hitting nine home runs in his first full big-league season, Jones has put on 25 pounds of sheer muscle this winter, though he plans to trim down by five to 10 pounds by spring training. Jones’ right-handed bat would be a much-needed boost to the middle of the lineup.

This is crack reporting. In summary:

1. Muscles make you good! My mom told me to drink my milk so I'd grow up to be big and strong and my gym teacher told me to lift weights so I could be strong so I do that. Muscles make you good at sports, always. That's why people take steroids, so they can have big muscles and hit home runs. If you take steroids you wake up the next day looking like Gary Strydom:

2. Players hitting for power is good! If muscles make Adam Jones hit for more power, the Orioles will benefit.

RHP David Pauley, acquired from Boston for RHP Randor Bierd, could win a spot in the rotation with a strong spring. Pauley, who is out of minor league options, went 14-4 with the Red Sox’s Class AAA affiliate last season.
RHP Radhames Liz will get an extended look as a starter in spring training; Orioles president Andy MacPhail has suggested the club’s former prospects will be given every opportunity to prove the club’s previous executives right. Liz, 25, could be used in the bullpen if he falters as a starter.

Considering the team has four open rotation slots, I'm pretty sure it goes without saying that Pauley and Liz are in the running.

1B Oscar Salazar was designated for assignment when the Orioles signed C Gregg Zaun. The right-handed hitter was a valued hitter to the club but had no established defensive position. The Orioles would like to bring him back on a minor league contract.

They're saying that Salazar was a valued hitter to the club. If true -- and I suppose it must be -- then that's strange, considering he's 31 years old with a career .805 OPS in the minors. The Orioles treating Salazar for what he is (a journeyman with no big league hope whatsoever, and a piece of a AAA team) is fine. If they wish to consider him more than that, there's a wire loose somewhere.

By The Numbers: 8—Teams Nick Markakis can list each season in his no-trade clause, part of the six-year, $66.1 million contract he signed recently.

I wonder what eight teams he's going to list this season? I'll guess Warshington, Colorado, Kansas City, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Toronto and Texas. I know you might be thinking Seattle, but I figure they have the Space Needle and that Moose and Ichiro.

CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects: Post-Season 2008 Edition

SC — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:32:10 -0000

On April 1, this happened:

1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Bill Rowell, 3B
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
4. Nolan Reimold, OF
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP
6. Chris Tillman, RHP
7. Garrett Olson, LHP
8. Chorye Spoone, RHP
9. Tony Butler, LHP
10. Hayden Penn, RHP
11. Tim Bascom, RHP
12. Troy Patton, LHP
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP
15. David Hernandez, RHP
16. Pedro Beato, RHP
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B
18. Matt Albers, RHP
19. Randor Bierd, RHP
20. Bob McCrory, RHP

It is now October 8. This will happen. Instead of going over these guys in that order and how their seasons went, I'm going to re-shuffle at the same time. And there's plenty of movement.

1. Matt Wieters, C (1)

This will no doubt sound very "after the fact," but I was very big on Nick Markakis. While looking at his stat lines, I thought, "Here's a guy that puts up real numbers. Here's a guy that can play." We had been treated to lots of flop prospects that never put up numbers, but we were told yearly about their "potential" and their "ceiling." No one really talked about Markakis' "ceiling" -- he actually played well instead.

Matt Wieters makes Nick Markakis (at similar stages) look like Keith Reed. The former Yellow Jacket entered his first season of professional baseball as maybe the most hyped player coming out of the 2007 draft, partially due to the fact that I think WE were all so excited to have a player of his caliber that we decided to make him out to be Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Johnny Bench and prime years Pudge Rodriguez all rolled into one.

In 229 ABs at Frederick, he hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 home runs. In 208 at-bats with Bowie, he topped that, hitting .365/.460/.625 with 12 dongs.

If Wieters starts off the year in Bowie or Norfolk in 2009, go see him if you have the chance, because you won't have many to see this superstar-in-the-making play in the sticks. He's coming. He's on his way. Frankly, there's no reason other than contract jive that he isn't the starting catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

If they want to excite the fans about the future and get the skeptics to buy into the rebuilding (which they've heard before and was bungled so badly that I don't blame them), they need to have Wieters on the club. Simple as that. He's a player.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP (6)

Start the hype machine. This is our best pitching prospect. Thanks, Mariners!

Tillman turns 21...next April. That means that this guy just put on some damn good numbers in Double-A ball, and he can't even legally buy a drink until next April. In 135 innings, Tillman held opposing batters to a .227 average, went 11-4, and struck out 154. The Anaheim native was an Eastern League All-Star, and also represents something different from our pitching prospects, something that Wieters does, too: results. Actual, tangible results. Numbers you can point to as a reason to believe he'll be very good. He's probably not destined to be an ace, but a 2 or a 3? Absolutely. And as much as I try to stay away from blind optimism, given his age, I see no reason he can't become an ace. He's 20!

And because he's so young and good but no phenom, there's no reason to rush him up the chain. He'll be ready when he's ready.

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP (5)

Former Horned Frog Arrieta pitched 113 innings at Frederick, and went just 6-5.

Buuuut...in doing so, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .199 BAA, and was named to the Carolina League All-Star game, the Carolina League post-season All-Star team, and oh yeah, was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He also played in the Futures Game.

The league couldn't touch him, but did draw some walks. I loved the Arrieta draft choice when we made it, and it looks even better now. Here's another guy that can solidify a staff in the future, and is showing that ability to do so with RESULTS. I know I keep harping on that, but I don't feel the need to explain Arrieta's ceiling. You can actually see that he's good. It's not just smoke-blowing.

He DID tire late in the season, and finished 1-5 in his last 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA, but conditioning is something you learn, like throwing a good slider or hitting one. Unlike beanpole Tillman (6-5, 195), Arrieta already has the body that a scout would like (6-4, 225).

4. Brian Matusz, LHP (-)

Matusz very well might be so good that he could jump up to No. 2 on this list by the middle of 2009. He is currently in the Arizona Fall League, playing with the Surprirse Rafters, but has yet to pitch as best I can tell.

The San Diego University standout was taken fourth overall by the Orioles, and they paid a pretty penny to get him signed. But when you look at his final college season, you know why: 12-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, and just four home runs allowed in 105 innings pitched.

He dominated college ball, and that means he has college shine on his left arm, much like Jake Arrieta has on his right arm. College players are generally better than high school players. That is a scientific fact. The Orioles ponying up the dough to sign Matusz and Wieters in back-to-back years is a GREAT sign from our front office. For years we were throwing money at the wall with guys like Adam Loewen, which turned out bad in every possible respect. Not only did Loewen stink, but he was hurt all the time, we gave him a terrible contract that rushed him into Major League duty, and now he's not even a pitcher anymore.

Put it this way: if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were all to pan out (not likely, but not unprecedented), then that's 3/5 of a rotation made out of real arms, not the junk we've been accepting as top prospect pitchers. These guys lay waste to what we've been fed for years.

5. Nolan Reimold, OF (4)

Reimold started very slow, but wound up on the Eastern League post-season All-Stars, hitting .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. He finally stayed healthy enough to play 139 games, too, which is a great thing. Right now, he's playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.

Reimold is a guy that has earned the chance to compete for a job next spring. Luke Scott is not getting any younger and isn't exactly great shakes to begin with, plus Millar should be gone, which would open up first base or DH. Huff could step in at first and Luke could do the majority of the DHing, with Reimold out in left, giving us a legit young outfield of Markakis, Jones and Reimold. Not bad.

I have no doubt that Reimold could hit in the Majors, at least putting up numbers similar to what Luke did this season. The only thing I still worry about is his ability to stay healthy.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP (3)

Two reasons Radhames Liz stays this high. First, it was his first taste of Major League Baseball, and sometimes guys get shelled. He went out there and did the best he could do. Command is the obvious issue. He has the stuff. I think he's more likely to find MLB success out of the bullpen, but that's not a bad place to be. A player's a player.

Second, the system takes a significant hit after the top five. A lot of guys bit the dust this year due to injury or plain old sucktitude, and Liz's ceiling (ooh!) remains higher than just about all of them.

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP (14)

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Brandon Erbe ninth in the O's system. In 2007, they had him up to No. 2, and 78th in baseball. In 2008, he was down to tenth following a disastrous season at Frederick (6.26 ERA, 119.1 IP).

He came back strong, and he's still only 21 in December (Erbe, in fact, is one of the unlucky few born on Christmas).

Erbe improved across the board in another go-'round with the Keys this year. His strikeouts were up (8.37 to 9.02 per nine), his walks down (4.68 to 2.99), hits allowed down (9.58 to 7.17), and his ERA dipped to 4.30 with a 1.13 WHIP, which was down .45 points. His ERA was only that high, actually, because he struggled with gopher balls: he allowed 21 in 150 innings.

Hope is rekindled...

8. David Hernandez, RHP (15)

Hernandez's first season in Bowie was a fine success, as he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The only concern is that he's still pretty much a fastball/slider guy, and his command is quite shaky, with 71 walks in 141 innings. On the plus side, he struck out 166, and was tough to hit (112 hits allowed). Might end up a bullpen guy, but could be a really good one, too.

9. Tony Butler, LHP (9)

Butler went on the Delmarva DL for good in June, after putting up a 4.42 ERA in 55 innings. What is very nice to see is a tremendously low walk rate, at 1.80 BB/9. His strikeout totals weren't amazing (7.20/9), but the control is the key. He's still a nice prospect as he doesn't turn 21 until November, but guys getting hurt this young is always a maroon flag if not one that is blood red.

10. Billy Rowell, 3B (2)

Before we get into why Billy Rowell slips a full eight spots and why you should probably burn your hopes and dreams, let's sum up his season with honesty very quickly.

Summary, Billy Rowell, 2008: Rowell got hurt early on and stayed out longer than expected, wound up playing just 111 games, and when he wasn't hurt, he sucked. Rowell hit .248/.315/.348 with seven home runs, not exactly befitting the ninth pick of the 2006 draft, and the man that was supposed to be our future at third or first base.

Outside of 42 games with Bluefield in 2006, Rowell hasn't hit for any power, racking up just 16 home runs the last two seasons, neither of which he played as much as you'd like (91 games in 2007, 111 this year). He was way below expectations at Delmarva, and way below expectations again this season with Frederick.

I keep him this high, honestly, only out of Amber-style blind faith. I want Rowell to turn it around in 2009 and get fast-tracked to the majors. One reason is that Melvin Mora can't stand over there forever, and we can't be relying on Melvin's second half sonic boom to carry over as he inches toward 40.

It all begs the question: is Rowell working hard or hardly working?! A-ha-ha-ha! Classic.

11. Troy Patton, LHP (12)

With the great bright spots at the top, Rowell's freefall and Patton moving up a spot despite not pitching really should explain the type of season the Orioles system had outside of a decent-looking draft. Troy Patton did not throw a single pitch as he was out with a labrum injury, and who knows if he'll return any good or not? But I have more faith that Troy Patton will contribute to the Major League team in a positive way than I do anyone below him.

Put that in your pipe and give it a think. Like I said, improvements in recent years or not, this system takes a nosedive after the top five.

12. Garrett Olson, LHP (7)

Not only did Garrett Olson stink up the joint something awful (9-10, 6.65/1.73, 62 BB in 132 IP) filling in for Adam Loewen this season, but he rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way, too, seeming to be totally indifferent to his struggles. Asked if his bad season got to him, Olson said, "Not really," or whatever.

Maybe that's a good thing, though. Maybe he figures you take your lumps and you figure out how to fix it. Maybe he spends the entire off-season working on fixing it. Maybe he spends it in Aruba punching judges and we can really start to hate him.

I'm not in Garrett Olson's mind. I don't know what he's thinking. I do know his stock took a serious hit this year, because struggling is one thing, but he got his ass kicked.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B (13)

2005 first-round pick Brandon Snyder remains a personal favorite of mine. John Sickels regarded Snyder, then a catcher, as the best high school hitter in that draft, so I was thrilled that the Orioles signed him. Imagine if Snyder, Rowell, Wieters and Matusz had all panned out as expected. Woof! Then again, that's why I think talking about securing draft position in a losing year is pointless. You get more Snyders and Rowells, guys facing uphill battles very quickly, than you do guys like Wieters that come in and kill everything thrown at them.

Snyder had a solid year for Frederick, hitting .315/.358/.490 with 13 homers and 80 RBI (435 AB), but his power is going to have to improve for him to be a serious idea for first base. That or he needs to figure out how to have the plate discipline of Mark Grace, which is not looking likely with his 83-to-29 K-to-BB totals.

14. Bradley Bergesen, RHP (-)

Sickels had Bergesen ranked 17th in January. He just missed my cut in April. He had a really nice year at Bowie, going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he walked next to no one in 148 innings, just 1.64 per nine. The catch? He only struck out 4.38 per nine. Not good, but results should speak, I think, and he made things happen this year.

15. Chorye Spoone, RHP (8)

The Prospect Lord giveth (mass improvements all around in 2007), and He taketh away (mass collapse and only nine starts in 2008). Spoone was back to posting the junk numbers he did in 2005-06 before going down for the year, which is a double negative. His 2007 might be a career year.

16. Xavier Avery, OF (-)

A two-sport superstar in Georgia high school athletics, Avery was a four-star running back with a verbal commitment to the University of Georgia. Instead, he opted to sign with the Orioles, who took him in the second round of this year's draft.

Still just 18, Avery is very, very raw, as you'd probably expect, but he's a ceiling guy, and his ceiling is pretty good. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash and has been clocked at 3.95 seconds from home plate to first base. He has what is called "plus-plus" speed, and his natural power is good, too. Obviously it'll take a while for these things to come into play, so don't look for him moving up through the system too quickly.

There's a good chance Avery will flat-out stink and it'll turn out he should've stuck with football. But for the Orioles to give a guy money when the University of Georgia is ready to have him come play football, that says there's something special that somebody sees. That often means zilch at the end of the day, but I hope he made the right choice. His arm as described as "suited for left field," which means his arm sucks. Ever see a running back throw? Not pretty.

17. Hayden Penn, RHP (10)

Penn stays here only because there aren't that many players to put on the list at this point, and because he'd probably do no worse, realistically, than Liz or Olson did this season. Of course, the Orioles thought enough of those guys to give them the shots, and Penn didn't see one inning of action in Baltimore this year.

Anyone still hanging on to 2004-05 when Penn's name meant something, give it up. He's just another AAA pitcher with AAA upside (4.79/1.45 in 100 IP at Norfolk).

18. L.J. Hoes, 2B (-)

I like your name, young man! Hoes was signed to play ball at the University of North Carolina, and opted to sign with Baltimore instead. He's described in every article you can find on him as a hell of a nice guy, a hard worker, a team player, blah blah blah. He played his high school ball with highly-successful St. John's (Washington, D.C.), as an outfielder and starting pitcher. The Orioles see him as a second baseman. In brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles this year, Hoes was was a walk mo-sheen, putting up a .416 OBP and going 10-for-10 in steal attempts. He hit .308 and slugged .390.

19. Jason Berken, RHP (-)

Again, it's just about results. 25-year old Berken went 12-4 (3.58/1.23) with Bowie this season. It's worth something, but he's not a real prospect.

20. Bob McCrory (20)

As always: has the stuff, needs to throw strikes. He was horrible in a brief stint with the Orioles this year. If he can learn some f-ing command, he could be a valuable f-ing addition to the f-ing bullpen. C'mon, Bob.

To the dearly departed...

First off was Tim Bascom (RHP, 11), a guy I liked a lot because of his story, but who really stunk up the joint in Frederick this season, with a 5.78 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 95 innings. Just after him was Pedro Beato (RHP, 16), a guy John Sickels had at #10 in January but that I simply didn't fully buy. Beato, 21, had a 5.85/1.57 line with 4.73 K/9 in 97 innings with the Keys, going 4-10. As Sickels put it in August, the two of them had a contest to see who could suck more. In the end, a pretty dead even race, and both are toast until something dramatic happens.

Scott Moore (IF, T-17) and Mike Costanzo (3B, T-17) both had awful years at Norfolk. Moore hit .247/.321/.408 with seven home runs, while Costanzo hit .261/.333/.395 with his usual massive amount of strikeouts, and just 11 home runs, a 16-homer drop from 2007 at AAA with the Phillies. Both are 24, and neither are really prospects, and really, neither ever really were. They were C-grade guys who look like they've probably hit the wall.

Matt Albers (RHP, 18) is off because he's hurt. I liked what we saw of him for the most part this year.

Randor Bierd (RHP, 19) just isn't anything special. His upside is less than that of McCrory, which was the tiebreaker. Both could be fine spare parts in the bullpen.

Note: Olson and Liz may not meet your guidelines for "prospect" at this point, given how much they pitched in Baltimore this year, but I think this should be a loose interpretation. Both guys were forced into their roles -- there was literally no one else available with Loewen out and Trachsel thankfully sent on down the river. There is hardly any guarantee that either man is with the Birds in 2009.

Other guys, notes, and statistical crapola...

If you're wondering where Oscar Salazar is, the answer is he's 30 years old.

Kam Mickolio is still a fun idea at 6-foot-9, but tall doesn't get me all aflutter the way it does some people. Years of Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will do that to you. He struggled with Bowie and struggled in September with the O's. He's still very raw considering he's from Montana. (That's not a knock on Montana, it's just he never played much baseball.)

21-year old Delmarva second baseman and whiny, self-important singer/songwriter Ryan Adams hit .308/.367/.462 with 11 homers this season. Not a bad line. He also made 52 errors.

The rest of the O's 2008 draft class: OF Kyle Hudson (University of Illinois), SS Greg Miclat (University of Virginia), and LHP Rick Zagone (University of Missouri). Zagone tore the hell out of the New York-Penn league in 65 innings, going 7-1 with a .289 ERA and 10.88 strikeouts per nine against 1.93 walks per nine.

Ex-Ohio State Buckeye (puke) Matt Angle will have fans in every minor league city he plays, I bet. Born in Columbus (puke), Angle hit .287/.385/.379 for Delmarva. He was also 22 years old. He has zero power, and though he runs well (37-for-48 steal attempts), his Major League future probably rests in the role of National League guy that pinch-hits for the pitcher, tries to draw a walk, and then maybe makes something happen on the basepaths.

No, I will not rank Lou Montanez. He is 27 in December and remains a massive bust. He has had exactly one season of pro ball that has met or surpassed expectations. It was this one.

23-year old pitcher Mick Mattaliano threw 43 innings of relief for Delmarva, putting up a 1.24 ERA. He went to Norfolk for seven innings and got shelled. Whoops!

My personal favorite player in the world, Cole McCurry, stunk with Delmarva (6.51 ERA, 56 IP) but tore up Aberdeen (2.76 ERA, 81 IP).

Kennard hit just .257/.323/.350 in 140 AB.

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
M. Hendrickson (L, 1-2)	5.0	5	3	3	3	6	1	3.86
D. Sarfate	1.0	4	3	3	1	1	0	7.36
R. Liz	0.1	3	6	6	1	0	0	67.50
M. Albers	1.2	3	0	0	0	1	0	5.87