SB Nation - Kelly Shoppach

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

I wasn't able to find a picture of Gregg Zaun blocking a pitch, but here's one of him blocking the plate from a baserunner. You get the idea.

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Some things to read while coming so close.

Thanks to Rubie for filling in yesterday while I was on my way back from a long travel weekend. I'm home now and will also write Mugs tomorrow and Thursday, health permitting: Somewhere on my travels, I managed to pick up a cold. If today's Mug drifts off into incoherence, now you know why.

The holiday week is usually a quiet one for transactions, but Adam McCalvy said the Brewers likely aren't done adding players in a recent Inbox. He also handled questions on a possible Opening Day lineup, Zach Braddock, and the roof at Miller Park.

Further proof that Gregg Zaun is a better catcher than Jason Kendall, at less than half the price: Beyond the Box Score's Catcher Block Percentage rankings have Zaun listed as the best catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls, adding roughly seven runs per 120 games to his value. Jason Kendall was worth roughly two runs, while Mike Rivera projected out to 5.5 runs per 120 games.

Speaking of Rivera, he's signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, with an invitation to spring training.

Meanwhile, LaTroy Hawkins has probably already finished packing and moving, because he's got plenty of experience in the field. The Northwest Indiana Post-Tribune notes that the Brewers will be Hawkins' eighth team.

Speaking of much traveled pitchers, Adam Foster of Project Prospect had an interesting note on John Halama: He faced 210 batters in winter ball and issued just three walks. Halama's Dominican team has been eliminated from postseason contention, along with Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren's Venezuelan team. For more on that, plus notes on several new Brewers and the winter ball debut of Angel Salome, check out today's oversized Winter League Update.

And, while I'm self promoting, you have until 4 pm today to vote for a fifth outfielder and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for a #2 starter on our BCB All Decade Team. Also, follow us on Twitter.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for pitcher Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
Braves: Signed infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league deal.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Mitch Talbot as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal, and signed reliever Saul Rivera to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed utilityman Danny Richar to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million deal.
Padres: Acquired catcher Dusty Ryan from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Phillies: Announced plans to exercise Jimmy Rollins' option for 2011.
Pirates: Signed reliever Javier Lopez to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed Darren Oliver to a one year deal.
Reds: Re-signed Laynce Nix and restructured and extended Scott Rolen's contract.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Phil Dumatrait and catcher (and former Brewer minor leaguer) Andy Bouchie to minor league deals.
White Sox: Claimed pitcher Freddy Dolsi off waivers from the Tigers.

I've mentioned this topic several times: sorry if you don't think it's interesting, but I find it fascinating. The Blue Jays are apparently bucking the minor league per diem trend and giving their players $25 dollars a day for meal money instead of $20 next season. The change will cost the team less than $50,000, but could go a long way towards helping their prospects get proper nutrition.

With 93 career wins, a Cy Young Award, and six straight seasons with an ERA under 4, Pete Vuckovich has a lot to be proud of from his major league career. Of course, all of that pales in comparison to his induction into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday today to:

2003-2005 Brewer Wes Obermueller, who turns 33.
1992 Brewer Andy Allanson, who turns 48.

And a couple of belated ones I missed over the weekend:

Chris Narveson turned 28 on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins turned 36 yesterday.

Drink up.

Indians Acquire Mitch Talbot; Sign Saul Rivera

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 01:00:29 -0000

More photos » by H. RUMPH JR - AP

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The Indians completed a pair of deals today that could positively impact their 2010 pitching staff. The team a nnounced that they have acquired Mitch Talbot as a player to be named later from the Tampa Bay Rays, completing the earlier trade of Kelly Shoppach. In an unrelated move, the Tribe signed relief pitcher Saul Rivera, who had been recently let go by the Washington Nationals.

When the Indians sent Shoppach to the Rays, GM Mark Shapiro said the club had a chance to add a player who could make an impact on the 25-man roster this season. Mitch Talbot stands a chance to do that. I'm sure the Rays would've love to keep Talbot in the organization, but with him being out of options, they were in a familiar situation; move Talbot or face the chance of losing him on waivers. The Indians are hoping that Talbot works out as well as the other out of options starters Tampa Bay had to move: Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel.

Unlike Jackson and Hammel, Talbot, 26, has little Major League experience. He spent the last three seasons in Durham pitching for the Rays Triple-A affiliate. He pitched a combined 70 innings in 2009 due to injuries. Even though he's had above average numbers in each season (~3.5 FIP), he's only pitched 9.2 innings at the Major League level. This has less to do with Talbot's talent, and a whole lot more to do with the Rays pitching depth.

The move for Talbot makes sense; he is a ready as he'll ever be to pitch in big leagues, and the Indians have spots available. He doesn't have overpowering stuff as his fastball tops out in the low 90s, but his plus change up is a perennial organizational award winner. He has also shown good control at each level.

After the announcement, Keith Law tweeted that with all things considered he rather have Talbot over Shoppach; I would agree...somewhat. Even a league average starting pitcher is worth about 2.5 WAR. Shoppach would need a pretty good season to approach that mark. However, in context, Talbot was at least the seventh best option in the Rays rotation and probably eighth best in the bullpen. Shoppach on the other hand stands to be a major upgrade over Dioner Navarro, and the Rays need all the 2010 wins they can get. The Indians get six years of Talbot which could easily make them the winners of the trade down the road, but right now I see the trade as beneficial to all parties, teams and players, involved.

About two weeks ago when the Nationals released Saul Rivera, I wrote the following: whoever his next team is will likely be getting a bargain as he'll probably cost no more than a minor league deal with a spring training invite. Today, the Indians made the move for the regression likely reliever, and the cost was a minor league deal with a spring training invite.

Rivera spent four seasons in the Nationals pen racking up a career FIP of 3.95. In 2007 and 2008, he posted back to back sub 3.5 FIP seasons in a pretty heavy work load of 177 innings. In 2009 his FIP ballooned to 5.71 thanks to an increase in HR/9 from .20 the previous seasons all the way to 1.64 this past. A ground ball pitcher, Rivera carried a HR/FB rate of 19.4 in 2009. Of the 36 fly balls allowed, seven left the yard; that is just unsustainable. His stuff is mediocre and he doesn't miss many bats, but he does get ground balls and usually limits the big fly. It won't grab many headlines, but it's under radar moves like Rivera and the earlier signing of Jason Grilli to minor league deals that often prove to be the biggest keys to bullpen construction.

For Kelly Shoppach's Bat Fastball:Good::Breaking Balls:Bad

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:00:43 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

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Kelly Shoppach's swing and miss issues are nothing new. The overall contact issues have been illustrated here, and also by RZ (formally of Rays Party) here. Specifically, I want to see is what pitches does he tend struggle with? With a K-rate of over 35% the answer, not surprisingly, is most of them.

Kelly Shoppach is a fastball hitter. There's no two ways about it. In 2009, he whiffed on around 10% of all fastballs thrown. This is by far the lowest of any pitch in which he received a fair amount of sample size. Career wise, his higest pitch value is far and away on the heater. With his power, any fastball over the plate and slightly elevated is likely to end up somewhere near the left field party deck.

Breaking balls? That's a different story.

Like many free-swinging, power hitters, Shoppach's kryptonite comes in the form of breaking balls. Sliders and Curveballs (especially low and away) give him fits. He made contact with air on 17.5% of curveballs in 2009, and came up empty on nearly a quarter (24.3%) of the sliders thrown in his general area. It's not surprising his lowest pitch values are also associated with these bendy pitches.

Nonetheless, breaking balls aren't the pitch missed most by Shoppach's bat. While seeing the pitch only 7.3% of the time in 2009, he missed the change-up over 31% of the time (28 of 90). The strange part is his wCH is his second highest pitch value, trailing the fastball. I'm assuming that while he is easily fooled by change-ups, if he guesses correctly, he's likely to hit it hard.

Despite the splits showing Shoppach's affinity for left-handed pitching, He is an equal opportunity hacker. He misses on slightly less fast balls and change ups against righties, but whiffs on more sliders and curves against lefties.

Nothing ground-breaking, but prepared for heavy doses of breaking pitches (again, mostly low and away) against Shoppach follwed by a bunch of empty offerings. However, if a pitcher leaves a fastball over the dish, or if a "get me over" change-up doesn't quite get over, it's likely to put Shoppach on-base or runs on the board.

Catch-22: What to do with Dioner Navarro?

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Does Navi fit into the current roster construction of the Rays?

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In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun's increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

As often is the case, the Rays Front Office strikes hard, silently and when least expected. With all eyes patiently looking ahead to the Winter Meetings, Andrew Friedman sensed opportunity. The rebuilding Cleveland Indians had a surplus of catchers. The right-handed Kelly Shoppach made $1,950,000 andwas due for a raise in arbitration. Behind Shoppach were 3 young catchers, prospects Lou Marson and Carlos Santana along with Wyatt Toregas. Shoppach would be too expensive for the Indians by the time they were to be competitive again, so he was a prime candidate to be non-tendered. Friedman sensed this and agreed to move a Player to Be Named Later for Shoppach. We now know through MLB.com that the player will either be AAA pitcher Mitch Talbot who is out of options or Joe Cruz who pitched in A- ball last year. Talbot, if healthy, should be able to handily crack the Cleveland rotation, whereas the Rays would probably been forced to pawn him off in a fire sale in Spring Training. It was a win-win as neither team had much leverage and succeeded in addressing a weakness from a position of excess strength.

Shoppach is a powerful right-hander who strikes out a lot but has decent on base-skills. His career splits trend much like Navi's, highly successful vs. LHP with a big drop-off vs. righties. However, Shoppach fares better than Navarro from both sides of the plate. Their career platoon splits can be found below:

	vs RHP		vs LHP
	OBP	SLG	OBP	SLG
Navi	0.302	0.339	0.336	0.434
Shoppach	0.308	0.396	0.386	0.614

We often discuss how the catching spot is one of a natural platoon. Teams are forced to take up two roster spots, so why not try to make some chemistry magic by playing off their strengths? The thought of signing Gregg Zaun began to look more attractive. Shoppach was adequate enough against RHP to reduce Zaun's workload. He could handle the 50 or so starts vs LHP and take on an additional 50-60 starts against RHP, while the elder Zaun would provide excellent ball-blocking skills and steady offense in the remaining 50-60 games vs. RHP. This option went out the door when the Brewers signed Zaun for $2.1 million giving the Rays the extra pick in next year's draft.

At this point it was widely assumed Navarro was a dead man walking in Tampa Bay. I penned a column looking at cheap in-house and external replacements in the minors who had wide splits in favor of facing RHP. We watched the days go by at the Winter Meetings waiting for a Navarro trade for the best available compensation. As the Saturday night deadline approached, there was a growing sense that Navarro would be non-tendered if he could not be moved. In 2009, Dioner Navarro andthe Rays had a bloody arbitration battle over a mere $400,000 with the Rays emerging victorious. Those are the types of battles that needlessly occur when you are represented by an agent who would tweet the following:

@kendallalmerico Here’s a shocker. Navarro starts, Rays win again. Talk stats all you want, but team chemistry = wins. And wins are what matters.

@kendallalmerico Rays now 5-7 with Zaunstarting, 5-2 with Navi behind the plate. I guess Joe Maddon wants October off this year.

@kendallalmericoSince acquiring 143 year old Geoff Zaun…Rays 5-6 with Zaunstarting at catcher, 4-2 with Navi starting. Hmmmm…let’s do the math

Andrew Friedman moves against the grain. Navarro had little to no leverage in negotiations given his gnatty agent, his putrid 2009, and the fact that teams had been filling voids at catcher all week. He accepted a one-year deal at the same salary as the previous season, $2.1 million. Why would Friedman do this given the apparent lack of synergies between Shoppach and Navi?

There are a few schools of thought. Conventional wisdom dictates the team needs an "experienced" backstop on the pine in the event of injury. Navarro is already familiar with the pitching staff and certainly that carries some value. While Navarro is almost certainly not as good as his 2008 slash line of .295/.349/.407, he is also not as bad as 2009's .218/.261/.222. For a reference point his career line is .253/.312/.367. An avenue of thought is that Navarro will rebound, thereby increasing his value and becoming an attractively priced trade target down the road.

Given Shoppach and Navi's career splits and assuming Shoppach catches about 120 games, how is the playing time best broken up using their career splits? Let's assume there are 120 games vs RHP and 40 vs LHP.

Method A= Shoppach faces all RHP and Navarro faces all LHP

Method B= Shoppach faces 80 RHP and 40 LHP, Navi gaces 40 RHP

	OBP	SLG	OPS
Method A	0.315	0.406	0.721
Method B	0.326	0.436	0.762

It seems as though overall team performance is best utilized when Navarro plays exclusively vs. RHP. Given Navi's deep career splits, I question whether this will allow him to raise his value at all. It would be akin to platooning Gabe Gross with a better hitting lefty who also struggled vs LHP. Gross would have to face lefties nearly all the time to maximize team value and his individual offensive numbers would be awful. If you don't do it in right field, why pay $2.1 million to do it at catcher?

I took a look at all catchers who had 150 PA in 2009 and looked at their career splits. I then broke the list into two, those with over 1000 career PA, and those with less. I also included each player's 2009 salary and his 2009 Defensive Runs Above Average as put together by devilfingers on drivelinemechanics.com:

Catchers > 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	LHPOPS	DefRAA	09 salary
Joe Mauer	2994	0.948	0.781	4.3	$10,500,000
Brian McCann	2372	0.892	0.761	-3	$3,666,667
Jorge Posada	6312	0.852	0.877	-5.9	$13,100,000
Victor Martinez	3686	0.847	0.816	-0.6	$5,900,000
Mike Napoli	1294	0.832	0.909	-9.7	$2,000,000
Ivan Rodriguez	9712	0.794	0.846	0.5	$1,500,000
Geovany Soto	1039	0.794	0.841	0.7	$575,000
Ryan Doumit	1483	0.786	0.758	-2	$2,150,000
A.J. Pierzynski	4704	0.781	0.661	-4.8	$6,250,000
Chris Iannetta	1084	0.767	0.930	2	$415,000
Jason Varitek	5464	0.759	0.828	-4.1	$5,000,000
David Ross	1458	0.754	0.769	7	$1,400,000
Kurt Suzuki	1450	0.744	0.778	0.9	$410,000
Jason Kendall	8212	0.744	0.682	-4.5	$5,000,000
Russell Martin	2326	0.743	0.880	-3.3	$3,900,000
Gregg Zaun	3925	0.733	0.730	-0.2	$1,500,000
Ramon Hernandez	4770	0.729	0.780	3.3	$8,500,000
Kenji Johjima	1722	0.725	0.710	8.8	$8,000,000
Brian Schneider	3186	0.716	0.620	3.5	$4,900,000
Carlos Ruiz	1259	0.712	0.728	5.4	$475,000
Ramon Castro	1400	0.707	0.773	-1.6	$2,625,000
Kelly Shoppach	1043	0.704	1.000	-1.5	$1,950,000
Josh Bard	1769	0.695	0.771	-7.3	$600,000
Bengie Molina	4743	0.691	0.813	-3.4	$6,000,000
Chris Snyder	1682	0.689	0.822	-3	$3,000,000
John Buck	2116	0.687	0.749	-4.8	$2,900,000
Rod Barajas	2746	0.684	0.714	4.2	$2,500,000
Yorvit Torrealba	1987	0.680	0.777	-2.9	$3,750,000
Yadier Molina	2458	0.672	0.741	6.6	$3,312,500
Ronny Paulino	1376	0.652	0.877	2.5	$440,000
Miguel Olivo	2631	0.651	0.824	-8.8	$2,700,000
Dioner Navarro	1822	0.641	0.770	0.4	$2,100,000
Gerald Laird	1826	0.633	0.776	13.3	$2,800,000
Henry Blanco	2614	0.626	0.739	5.7	$750,000
Jose Molina	1587	0.571	0.690	-1.1	$2,150,000

Of the 35 catchers with >1000 career plate appearances, Navi has the 4th worst OPS vs RHP. You'll note 2 of the 3 names below him are worth a win and 1.3 wins more defensively. Navi has little value vs. RHP and is about average defensively. If the Rays are to settle for a below average hitter, a defensive stud would seem to make more sense, especially since most of the marketplace discounts defense at the catcher spot.

For the catchers with less than 1000 PAs, we have to take their splits with a larger grain of salt, though RHP is the more reliable number. Park-Adjusted AAA OPS vs RHPis included for reference point for the minor league alternatives in my previous article, with a minimum 150 PA required in a AAA season.

Catches < 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	paAAA	LHPOPS	DefRAA
Landon Powell	155	0.829	0.735	0.458	2.4
John Baker	656	0.815	0.820	0.630	-3.2
Matt Wieters	385	0.804	1.017	0.695	2.5
Miguel Montero	938	0.773	1.020	0.792	-6.5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	869	0.768	N/A	0.588	-0.3
Taylor Teagarden	271	0.721	0.770	0.841	2.4
Nick Hundley	505	0.719	0.824	0.593	-6.8
Chris Coste	885	0.713	0.494	0.821	-0.2
Ryan Hanigan	402	0.712	0.794	0.680	7
Jason Jaramillo	224	0.701	0.795	0.511	0.1
Omir Santos	316	0.700	0.625	0.616	2.4
Rob Johnson	325	0.636	0.878	0.490	-1.8
Brayan Pena	314	0.595	0.742	0.648	-2.9
Koyie Hill	543	0.580	0.812	0.627	6.1
Raul Chavez	725	0.576	0.563	0.555	4.4
Jeff Mathis	861	0.573	0.587	0.663	-2.1
Wil Nieves	597	0.569	0.629	0.589	-0.3
Humberto Quintero	589	0.555	0.942	0.732	1.7

There is no guarantee AAA success vs RHP will translate to the major leagues. We don't know that a John Jaso or Jose Lobaton will be able to provide a Navarro-level of success against RHP. However with two birds in the bush, the chance of one of them landing in the hand is a bit better.

Navi would almost be better suited to scrap the switch-hitting and work solely from the right side of the plate. Barring an unexpected offensive breakthrough, Navarro will be best utilized as a career backup to a catcher who hits well against RHP. Navarro can play predominantly against lefties and make fairly valuable contributions. For a team with that makeup, $2.1 million is a pretty attractive price in this marketplace. If Navarro had been traded prior to reaching the deal, the acquiring team would almost certainly be paying closer to the $3-3.5 million being earned by the likes of John Buck, Pudge, and Jason Kendall. As a counterpart to Shoppach, the return falls short even with the discounted contract. My hope is that Friedman can find the right place for Navi to succeed andreceive something back of greater value back than he would have received witht he contract uncertainty associated with the arbitration process.

Report: Player to be Named Later for Kelly Shoppach is Either Mitch Talbot or Joseph Cruz

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:38:34 -0000

This from MLB.com:

Any speculation on who we're going to get for Kelly Shoppach?
-- Kevin K., Independence, Ohio

Though the Indians won't confirm who they have to choose from on or before the Dec. 20 deadline, I'm hearing it will be one of two right-handed pitchers -- Mitch Talbot or Joseph Cruz

This comes down to whether the Indians want immediate help in the form of Talbot or higher upside with a higher chance of burn out in Cruz. I'm a big fan of Talbot and he's out of options. I'd hate to lose him, but I think it's a matter of when rather than if. Talbot has roughly three seasons of Triple-A under his belt now, and during his time with Durham he's posted FIP of 4.0, 3.03, and 3.55. He is right-handed and his fastball sits in the low-90s, but his change-up is reportedly an above average pitch. He throws strikes and he'll be cheap for a number of years to come.

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

The Kelly Shoppach Platoon Split Post

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 10:00:19 -0000

Sometimes in our eagerness to imagine, we lose sight of the facts and reasonability. In retrospect these occasions become laughable and a bit embarrassing. With such, Kelly Shoppach's platoon splits and the reaction to seek out a platoon partner pop to mind and bears a resemblance to the thought shared in the afterglow of Matt Joyce's acquisition. We try so hard to make every aspect of the roster perfect that something obvious scatters undetected.

First, a general exercise.

Each catcher whom received at least 300 plate appearances was noted. So too were his career platoon OPS. Ideally these numbers would be contained in a smaller time period as to give us an idea of the true talent level, but in the interest of time, this is what we have to deal with.

The results showed that switch hitters held a very small platoon split (.764 OPS versus lefties, .765 versus righties) which makes sense; if they were extremely weak from one side why would their organizations allow them to continue? Left-handed batting catchers hit .842 against righties and .725 against lefties and right-handed batting catchers hit .804 against lefties and .722 against righties.

Shoppach not only holds the most extreme split (positive or negatively), but the only split over .200 points. That alone essentially guarantees regression. There is an excruciatingly slim chance Shoppach is an outlier to such degrees (the standard deviation is 0.065, the mean is .1; Shoppach is exactly three deviations from the mean).

Now to the good stuff, this courtesy of The Book:

Recalling the "regression" section of the Toolshed chapter, we find that a right-handed hitter's platoon split is best estimated with a weighted average in which his platoon split is weighted by the number of lefties he has faced, and the league average is weighted by 2200.

In other words, a righty who has 2200 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers will be regressed exactly halfway toward the league-average. For a lefty, the number is about 1000 (due to the larger variation in platoon skills).

For this part of the drill, the following slash lines will be used:

Average RHB v. RHP: .257/.319/.407

Shoppach v. RHP: .224/.308/.396

Average RHB v. LHP: .269/.347/.430

Shoppach v. LHP: .295/.386/.614

Shoppach has 785 plate appearances against righties and 258 versus lefties, so yeah, there's some regressing to do; roughly 90% against southpaws and 56% against righties. That gives him a true talent OPS against lefties of .799 and .719 against righties. Assuming something like 450 plate appearances with 60% coming against righties, Shoppach would project for a wOBA around .333 - knock a few points down for park, age, and maybe even AL East - and you still have a catcher that will be hitting around league average - something fewer than half those catchers with 300+ plate appearances accomplished.

Shoppach may not evoke the playing spirit of Johnny Bench. The thing is. He won't be a regular Johnny on the bench either.

---

Somewhat fun fact: Shoppach's bat was worth 24 more runs than Navarro's last season. That is equal to the gap between Yuniesky Betancourt and Matt Wieters. Or Juan Pierre and Kendry Morales. Or Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols ... Pujols is unfair.

The data from the 29 catchers:

Name	B	LH OPS	RH OPS
Carlos Ruiz	R	0.727	0.712
Miguel Montero	L	0.792	0.774
Jorge Posada	B	0.877	0.852
Ryan Doumit	B	0.758	0.786
Rod Barajas	R	0.714	0.684
Victor Martinez	B	0.848	0.815
Jason Kendall	R	0.779	0.744
Ramon Hernandez	R	0.78	0.729
Geovany Soto	R	0.851	0.794
Kurt Suzuki	R	0.681	0.744
Yadier Molina	R	0.741	0.672
Jason Varitek	B	0.828	0.759
Mike Napoli	R	0.908	0.832
Josh Bard	B	0.771	0.695
Omir Santos	R	0.616	0.7
Ivan Rodriguez	R	0.846	0.749
A.J. Pierzynski	L	0.661	0.781
Bengie Molina	R	0.813	0.692
Dioner Navarro	B	0.77	0.641
Brian McCann	L	0.761	0.892
Matt Wieters	B	0.671	0.804
Russell Martin	R	0.88	0.743
Gerald Laird	R	0.777	0.633
Chris Iannetta	R	0.929	0.766
Joe Mauer	L	0.781	0.947
Miguel Olivo	R	0.823	0.65
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	0.587	0.768
John Baker	L	0.63	0.814
Kelly Shoppach	R	0.999	0.704

A Brief Primer on the Rays Off-Season to Date and a Look Forward to the Winter Meetings

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:54:22 -0000

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we'll have a very special interview with James Click -- the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity - which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let's review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers...

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won't pass the smell test.

Tampa Bay Rays "In Mix" For Ivan Rodriguez

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:39:03 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Browse more photos »

Perhaps no position on the Rays remains as unsettled as the catcher position. Even with the acquisition of Kelly Shoppach and the departure of Gregg Zaun, it's anyones guess as to who will be the Rays catcher opening day. Even after opening day, there is no indication whether the Rays are going with a primary catcher or a platoon split. Jon Heyman adds to the confusion today by tweeting that the Rays are one of four teams interested in the services of future hall of fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez.

The idea of Pudge in a Rays uniform is one that I've had for a while. Before the 2009 season, I even dedicated an entire post to the Rays signing him. The Rays did not, and instead Rodriguez started the season with the Houston Astros before being traded to the team where he made most of his headlines, the Texas Rangers. Making a modest $1.5 million dollar base in 2009, Rodriguez hit just .245/.280/.384. It's no secret that at his age, his best offensive days are behind him. Pudge hasn't had a wOBA season over .330 since 2006, but he's still pretty good defensively throwing out nearly 35% of runners in 2009. His splits do not to see to be matches Shoppach or Dioner Navarro.

With other teams like the Royals, Giants and Rangers involved, it's likely that he could see more playing time and receive more money in those situations, but you never know. The Rays haven't been as active in signings as the Braves or the Mets to this point, but given their reported interest in all these players it isn't from a lack of effort.