SB Nation - Jason Michaels

Are Ed Wade and Brian Cashman on the same page?

DyingQuail — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:48:00 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

This is the face of a man who knows he still has two more years to phone it in.

A lot has been made today of the importance of Javier Vazquez's contract. Vazquez comes to the Yanks at one year and $11.5 million dollars. Thus, many have speculated that all signs point to the fact that Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, is setting himself up to shed payroll at a time when a bountiful crop of FA talent opens up on the market and Cashman can open up the Steinbrener's coffers. Think Joe Mauer catching Sabathia and Burnett, while batting in front of, behind—or whatever—of A-Rod and Teixeria. And that just would be the tip of the iceberg.

A lot has been said of the saviness of the Vazquez trade for Cashman precisely because of this (also because: how in the hell do you trade away the league leader in xFIP, who only makes $11.5 million, for Melky Cabrera?). Savvy moves by a GM. That's really not something I have heard said of a Houston GM in a long time.

Seriously, think about our signings.

Even the ones that turned out well were ridiculued at the time. Arbtration decisions? Caustic reactions. Last offseason? Splash signings of Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez, and a trade that saw Drew Sutton depart for Jeff Keppinger. The year before? Kaz Matsui at three years and $16.5 million dollars. Don't forget the Miguel Tejada trade on the eve of the Mitchell report, or how much the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn swap made your head explode throughout 2008. Even if the Valverde trade wasn't bad, by the time all was said and done, our farm system was pretty much desolate and people hated it. 2007? You have to love an offseason that sees Drayton McLane run Andy Pettitte out of town and bring in Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams to a two year deal on the basis of his ballpark enabled late-career-peak-season at Petco. 2006? Preston...ok, I'll stop.

The point is there hasn't been an offseason move, in awhile, in Houston that had a majority of pundits, fans, etc. all agreeing that a Houston Astros GM did something pretty savvy. This offseason has been no different. Painfully so, at times, actually.

But then, in the wake of the Vazquez for Cabrera hubub, it dawned on me: Ed Wade is stacking his chips up for 2013, just like Cashman is for 2011. The following players are off the books, if we want them to be, after 2012: everyone making anything meaningful in the way of salary. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Kaz Matsui, Roy Oswalt (could take a reduced buyout and walk away after 2011), Lance Berkman (technically his contract is out in 2011). Left on the books (hopefully, due to some "the time is ripe" extensions): Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Wesley Wright, Sammy Gervacio, Chia Jen-Lo? Jordan Lyles? Jiovanni Meyer?! That entire combination costs what? $20-25 million to field? Throw in the likelihood of new ownership and there could easily be a $90 million pot of gold at the end of the hot stove rainbow.

I'm not trying to suggest that Wade should let Oswalt and Berkman walk away. In fact, he shouldn't. The point is, Wade came into Houston two years ago with no payroll flexibility and no farm system. In two years, Ed Wade could have an absurd about of payroll flexibility thanks to Bobby Heck, and co.'s farm system. All of this because Ed Wade hasn't signed anyone to a contract that impinges on the magical offseason of 2012.

That's right, there's method to the maddness...possibily.

Does that excuse the iffy of signings, or moves, that Wade has made? No. But Ed Wade won't be searching for guys on the fringe at that point. He'll targeting the top tier free agents. Whatever kind of analysis he's using at that point, it's hard to botch those (unless we through Prince Fielder a Carlos Lee type deal*). Depending on what happens in the next CBA, he probably won't even have to worry all the much about losing a ton of draft picks.

It's like a perfect storm. Ed Wade will get to put the garnishes on a team that he'll have worked for four years to make salvagable. The meat and potatoes will be the guys he's hung onto and the guys he's drafted. I'm almost ready to purchase my 2013 playoff tickets.

Of course, the problem with thesis that Ed Wade has been patiently playing the fool and/or just kind of screwing around for four years to set up a blockbust 2012 offseason has one flaw: it could be what the Mayan's were predicting would bring on the apocalypse. Can you imagine an entire slew of FanGraphs articles praising Ed Wade? Thinking about that possibility has more more convinced that the Mayans might have it right.

*I have no idea who exactly will and won't be in the 2012 Free Agent class, but Prince Fielder just fit the range and weight of the analogy I needed to make.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Craig Counsell slides right into the projected 2010 roster.

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Some things to read while she digs for her phone.

It's finally time to back off the comments about Randy Wolf not wanting to be here. Wolf said all the right things in his introductory press conference yesterday, and now actually appears happy to be a Brewer. Jen Lada was also at the press conference, and tweeted four quotes giving a nice feel for Wolf and the organization's excitement to have him.

The Brewers also announced Craig Counsell's new deal yesterday (FanShot). Counsell will earn $2.1 million next season along with some playing time incentives. The Bucky Channel says moves like this one are "crucial when trying to make a smaller market team a contender." Fire Doug Melvin is fine with the move, as long as Counsell doesn't take playing time away from Mat Gamel.

With Wolf and Counsell officially on board and LaTroy Hawkins (physical on Wednesday) and Claudio Vargas (physical on Friday) expected to be added by the end of the week, Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewer 40 man roster is about to be full, which might mark the end of any major Brewer moves in free agency. Two notes on that:

If you're still waiting for the Brewers to sign another starting pitcher, odds are you'll be waiting for a while. Adam McCalvy said Doug Melvin probably regrets comments he made months ago suggesting the Brewers were looking to sign two starters.
Secondly, the 40 man roster may be full, but it's a "soft" full. Room could almost certainly be made by outrighting new acquisition Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard, who would most likely go unclaimed at a time of year when no one has many 40 man spots to spare.

The roster crunch was one of the reasons cited for non-tendering Mike Rivera. Brewed Sports isn't too happy with the decision, and also notes that non-tendering the team's lone returning catcher pokes a hole in arguments used to support starting Jason Kendall last season.

Speaking of crowded situations, you can add David Riske to the list of pitchers to pencil into a bullpen spot to start the season. Doug Melvin said Riske expects to be ready for spring training (FanShot). That's bad news for Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and Chuck Lofgren, among others, who now may be fighting for one roster spot. If Mark DiFelice hadn't gone down, they'd all come to Maryvale on the outside looking in. A lot can happen between now and then, of course.

And speaking of Chris Smith, Brewerfan.net asked someone from the Brewer organization to verify some of their option info, and discovered that Smith doesn't have any options left. Obviously, Smith wouldn't be a major loss, but it's possible someone would claim him if he were available.

Meanwhile, we reached the final conclusion of the Mike Cameron era in Milwaukee yesterday, as he agreed to a two year deal with the Red Sox (FanShot). Cameron's strikeouts and one memorable dropped fly ball made him a polarizing talent as a Brewer, but most advanced metrics seem to agree on his significant value, and you'll rarely hear anything negative said about him as a teammate and clubhouse presence. If you missed it last night, Jordan has a goodbye post for him.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Ryan Braun? I think we occasionally forget how rare it is for a player to have an impact as immediate as his in the major leagues. Braun hit the second most home runs of any major leaguer in their first 162 games, and also collected the tenth most hits, making him the only player to appear on both lists.

Speaking of luck, Braden Looper's 14 wins last season made him the most unlikely winner in major league history.

Another day, another new poll for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a catcher, and until 4 pm tomorrow to select our final starting outfielder. So far Damian Miller and Geoff Jenkins are leading those votes, respectively.

After looking at the candidates at catcher, I'm starting to wish I had gone this route instead: Camden Chat has an All-Awful lineup for the 2000-2009 Orioles.

And actually, speaking of awful: Rob Neyer has a ranking of the Top 100 players of the 2000's, and while former Brewers CC Sabathia (#25), Mike Cameron (#36), Ray Durham (#71), Jose Valentin (#88) and Corey Koskie (#92) are on it, Prince Fielder is nowhere to be found.

Around baseball:

Angels: Signed Hideki Matsui to a one year, $6.5 million deal.
Astros: Re-signed outfielder Jason Michaels to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Signed catcher Ramon Castro to a one year, $1 million deal.
Mariners: Signed catcher Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league deal.

Of course, the biggest transaction "announced" yesterday appears to be far from done, and may take several days to be made official: A three way deal would send Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners and prospects to the Blue Jays. You might recognize this trade as one several bloggers mocked Ken Rosenthal for suggesting over the weekend. I guess he knows something after all.

Happy birthday today to 2005-2006 Brewer Rick Helling, who turns 39.

Drink up.

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

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After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?

DyingQuail — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:02:20 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Just give us a sign, Ed.

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I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.

Why the fuss? Here are the selections:

The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.

Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).

So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.

But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?

Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:

"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."

Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.

So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.

Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:

"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.

I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.

There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?

And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.

Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?

None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The hitters

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:57:54 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Not the guy you're expecting to see with a post about "most impressive batting performance."

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This idea struck sometime in late August as I was watching, most likely, another Astros loss. I thought it would be a good idea so I randomly threw it onto Things for today.

The idea is pretty simple, what were the top three greatest performances that players put up during the season. Because I'm saber-slanted, I'm using WPA to quantify greatest. I've spent all morning clicking through every player's play log to find their highest WPA/play in order come up with the top three in hitting and pitching. Today is about the hitters, and the results will likely surprise you.

No. 1 - Kaz Matsui on September 5th

The man on the mound, a familiar Brad Lidge. The situation, down one in the bottom of the ninth, the bases juiced with two outs. What does Kaz do? He lines a 1B right field scoring JR Towles and Jason Michaels—the tying and the winning runs.

via www.fangraphs.com

Kazuo Matsui picks up a tidy .734 WPA on that one play. That's staggering. Of course, he's aided by the fact that the leverage situation was an insane 10.78, but he came through. That graph is ridiculous. Congrats, Kaz.

No. 2 - Miguel Tejada on September 9th

Compared to Kaz's ridiculous three-quarters of a win performance just four days earlier, Tejada's performance feels a little pedestrian. The real trajedy of this day, is that Lance Berkman gets squeaked out of the top three, even though were it not for him, Tejada doesn't make the list.

After Lance doubled to put runners at 2B and 3B, the Braves IBBed Carlos Lee to bring up Tejada, with one out (this reads like a terrible decision until you remember that it's Miguel "GIDP" Tejada at the plate). The result is that Tejada sends a ground ball to CF bringing in Kaz Matusi and Berkman to put the Astros on top 2-1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tejada walks away with .471 WPA for his troubles and the number two performance.

No. 3 - Jeff Keppinger on August 27th

Top of the ninth. None on and two out. Astros tied 3-3 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Keppinger takes Kyle McClellan deep for a HR to put the Astros on top.

via www.fangraphs.com

Incidentally, Keppinger garners .421 WPA with the HR, but most importantly: Keppinger earns the highest isolated WPA performance of the season.

Keppinger's swing was just involved he and McClellan, where as Kaz and Miggy had the table set for them. I'm not saying that because they had their situations created by the play of players in front of them that they don't deserve credit for coming through with "clutch" hits, but with Keppinger, you don't have to wonder if more credit should be shifted to the table setters.

So, in your opinion....

Poll

What was the greatest batting performance by an Astro in 2009? (the choices are cryptic because you should read the post before you vote)

9/5

15 votes

9/9

3 votes

8/27

9 votes

Other - I'll explain in the comments

2 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

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Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Outfield

davoag — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:15:09 -0000

We take a break from the managerial search to look at the Astros' 2009 outfield. The three starters in Lee, Bourn and Pence combined to be the most productive portion of the offense in a number of ways. Each totaled over 600 plate appearances and two of the three hit 25 home runs. While the Astros offense has its problems, the outfield isn't one of them. A bigger problem, though, is on the horizon.

Right now, the biggest strength in Houston's farm system is in the outfield. Players like Collin DeLome, Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston and Jay Austin all play the outfield and could be ready to play in Houston by 2011. One question to consider: would you trade one or both of the corner outfielders for pitching depth this off-season, though it may weaken the team for a season or two? Hypothetical questions aside, let's get to the analysis after the jump...

Carlos Lee, LF

2009 Season Stats: 610 PA, .300/.343/.489, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 26 HR, 65 runs, 102 RBIs, 5 for 8 stolen bases, 51 strikeouts, 119 OPS+

WAR: 2.4

UZR: -6.1

VORP: 36.2

Notes: Lee has turned into the opposite of a fan favorite these days. His lack of hustle on the basepaths and his worsening defense in left field make him an easy target, but there are few hitters more consistent than Lee. Last season, Lee collected at least 25 hits in each month except April and had a batting average over .300 in three of the six months in the season. On the negative side, Lee hit just .262/.308/.446 in the 88 Astros' losses while hitting .345/.384/.540. Love him or hate him, as went Lee, so went the Astros offense in 2009. The 33-year old had the second-highest OPS+ for Houston and had a theoretically-low BABiP of .290. Of course, this is largely explained by his low strikeout total and is exactly on the nose of his career BABiP. The distressing part of it is that Lee's OPS+ was his lowest total since the 2005 season in Milwaukee, when he posted a 109 OPS+. Lee does have value, as he's a very good bat in the middle of the order. The only way his bat offsets his terrible other baseball skills is if he continues hitting like a Top 20 guy. Guys his age, with his body type tend to drop off a cliff pretty quickly with the aging curve. Let's hope Lee can put up at least one more decent season before his contract expires.

Michael Bourn, CF

2009 Season Stats: 678 PA, .285/.354/.384, 27 doubles, 12 triples, 3 HR, 97 runs, 35 RBIs, 61 of 73 stolen bases, 140 strikeouts, 97 OPS+

WAR: 4.2

UZR: 6.5

VORP: 32.6

Notes: The reason Bourn's season was an unparalleled success was this: in 2008, he posted an OPS+ of 57 and last season that went up to 97. 40 points in OPS+ is pretty amazing, but not totally surprising, since this was Bourn's age 26 season, which means he's entering his prime seasons. Still, his OPS was technically below league average and his number of doubles was a little low for someone as fast as Bourn. The other problem with Bourn is his strikeouts. Someone with his speed needs to have a better contact percentage than the 26-year old does. On the other hand, OPS+ is a misleading stat for someone with Bourn's skillset. Runs Created incorporates stolen base percentage, which is why Bourn finished third on the team in RC with 95, two behind Astros leader Carlos Lee. His 61 steals led the National League and his 12 triples tied him for second in the senior circuit with Stephen Drew. Add to that an excellent defensive season, by most metrics, and Bourn was immensely valuable.

Hunter Pence, RF

2009 Season Stats: 647 PA, .282/.346/.472, 26 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR, 76 runs, 72 RBIs, 14 of 25 stolen bases, 109 strikeouts, 116 OPS+

WAR: 3.4

UZR: 6.0

VORP: 25.3

Notes: Pence put up a solid season. That's the best way to describe it. His OPS, his average, his stolen base numbers were all not overly compelling, nor were his 25 home runs. But, he was one of the more solid members of the lineup. You can pick nits with different parts of his game (he still doesn't walk a ton, he chases bad pitches, etc.), but for the most part he is who he is. Pence is a solid starter who will probably never become a superstar. He's not going to suddenly hit 40 home runs or post an OBP of .400. His batting average will probably not flirt with .350 and he most likely won't have 150 RBIs. He will show up, run hard and be a generally good player to have in your lineup. I personally could see Pence hitting in the two-hole and thriving there. With his speed, he'd be an asset, but he wouldn't get as many stolen base opportunities (which is a good thing). He'd also have a little pop to keep pitchers' honest. It's not a perfect thought, as his OBP would ideally need to be higher.

Jason Michaels, OF

2009 Season Stats: 152 PA, .237/.322/.430, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 17 runs, 16 RBIs, 1 for 3 stolen bases, 38 strikeouts, 99 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: -12.4

VORP: 2.2

Notes: I'll tell you the truth. I was shocked to see how high Michaels slugging percentage was. I just had this perception that his signing was an out and out waste, largely because he seemed to never get hits, either off the bench or when he was in the game. The funny thing is after you looked at his numbers, that's exactly what he should have done. 2009 saw Michaels set a career high for pinch hits in a season with 12 and his pinch hit leverage index was 1.41, .07 points higher than his career index. That means the Astros trusted him in big situations consistently and directly in line with how he was used in his career. If anything was out of the norm, it was his BABiP of .301 was 17 points lower than his career line. The fact Michaels recorded his fewest plate appearances since 2003 could also have played into his number decrease. His Isolated Power was 50 points higher than his career average, which means we probably shouldn't expect the same kind of power next season and I really think the Astros would be better served using someone like Brian Bogusevic as the fourth outfielder.

Brian Bogusevic, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 581 PA, .271/.342/.365, 25 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR, 68 runs, 53 RBIs, 22 of 25 stolen bases, 118 strikeouts,

Notes: Speaking of Bogey, this was his first full season as an outfielder and he did admirably well. At Triple-A, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Bogusevic put up fine numbers, but wasn't impressive. The Astros projected him to hit for more power than he's shown (remind you of anyone else? *cough*Johnson*cough*). His strikeouts are concerning and he doesn't walk enough to be an everyday starter, but his speed and baserunning acumen makes him intriguing. Defensively, Bogusevic got to a bunch of balls, recording 283 put outs to lead all Round Rock outfielders. He also had seven outfield assists, second only to Yordany Ramirez. I tracked the defensive numbers a little more in-depth for the first two months of the season and Bogusevic didn't have the most impressive arm. He made some plays but didn't hold runners as well as he could have and looked like he profiled better as a center fielder. As I said above, it makes sense to bring him up as a part-time player and let him learn how to hit in the majors. He's got nothing left to learn at Round Rock.

Yordany Ramirez, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 477 PA, .256/.275/.381, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 41 runs, 47 RBIs, 14 of 22 stolen bases, 64 strikeouts

Notes: Statistically, I really dislike this guy. Traditionally, though, I can see why the Astros liked him enough to sign him two years ago. Ramirez is a great defensive player and flashes big potential on offense. The problem is that the 24-year old has never been able to sustain that level of play, often falling in really damaging slumps. He's inconsistent on his stolen base success rate and I suspect he has better speed than instincts at this point. Ramirez hit all over the lineup last season for Round Rock before finally settling into the 7-8 spots. That's largely because of a genetic disorder that makes him physically allergic to taking a base on balls. Seriously, in eight minor league seasons, spanning 639 games and 2,420 plate appearances, Ramirez has only walked 78 times. That includes the 11 walks he managed in 2009. At this point, I don't ever see him being any more than an emergency contingency plan at Triple-A in case everyone else on the team gets hurt.

Drew Locke, OF

2009 Double-A Season Stats: 558 PA, .338/.389/.531, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 HR, 81 runs, 109 RBIs, 2 of 4 stolen bases, 84 strikeouts

Notes: Locke got a lot of burn this season because of his excellent numbers. He had an OPS of .920 at Corpus Christi, hitting 20 home runs and driving in 109 runs. Of course, the most telling statistic that never gets mentioned is that Locke was 26 years old last season. At that age, he should have destroyed Double-A hitting, even if it was the first time he'd been at that level after spending four seasons in the Dodgers organization. I'm not saying Locke isn't a good prospect at this point. It's just that we should probably temper our expectations somewhat. He's going to be 27 next year in Round Rock and may not see Houston until 2011, but with the injury to Josh Flores and the suspension of Mitch Einertson, Locke may be the most advanced outfielder the Astros have in their system (outside of the two mentioned above).

A little of this, a little of that: What the Astros offense can borrow from MLB's best teams

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:00:29 -0000

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Earlier this week, Beyond the Boxscore came out with its final Power Rankings of the season and the results are not pretty for Astros' fans. 28th in baseball overall, with periphery statistics that are dreadful.

While there may be other teams that rival the Astros' ineptitude in hitting, pitching and defense, most teams manage to at least be competent in at least one of those areas, whereas our Astros are at the bottom in all three. Remember, AL teams are rewarded in their rankings, and NL clubs are punished for the differences in league strength. Our pitching numbers don't look so bad going up and down the line, until you realize that the AL teams had to deal with a lot more in the way of offensive talent than Astros hurlers did.

Offensively, a collection of players that struggled to both get on base and hit for much power stopped the team before it could even get started. By God the Astros were clutch, though. Don't get too excited, however. That just means our offense managed to produce more than they were expected to, given our run scoring opportunities and propensity to collect certain types of hits. A team like ours that doesn't score a lot of runs via the home run is expected to score a lot. We managed to buck that trend, due in small part because our cumulative baserunning score wasn't as terrible as other teams.

Suffice it to say, the Astros don't have a lot of bright spots as of right now. Of course, that's why teams have off seasons- to get recooperate (no, no, not bring back Cooper- you can all settle down), replenish the reserves, and to give GMs a chance to put their Ivy League educations to use trying to one up each other.

What should the Astros do, in terms of player utilization/talent maximization, to improve themselves most efficiently? I think that like in most fields, baseball teams should do their best to build their own team in the same manner as those franchises which are the most successful.

This is easy to say, and much more difficult to actually accomplish, due to the fact that there is no salary cap in baseball, and with so many players on so many different levels within one organization, it's tougher to mimic the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies of the world than it would be for the Oakland Raiders to mimic the New England Patriots. Building a consistent winner in MLB takes time. A fact of life we ought to get used to.

Incremental changes can be made to this team in the 2010 offseason so that our climb up the rankings doesn't have to be so painful or so long in duration. That's not to say that Ed Wade can snap his fingers and make the Astros improve in certain areas. Far from it. There needs to be an organization-wide emphasis on certain statistics that give teams the best shot at competing into October. Simply stated- the Astros don't have many players who fit the bill in the categories that have the highest correlation with success in MLB.

Offensive:

BB/K: 5 out of the top 10 teams in BB/K made the playoffs

ISO (Isolated Slugging): Again 5 out of the top 10 teams in ISO made the playoffs

What can the Astros do to improve themselves in this regard? Well, not much as of now. Up and down the lineup, only Michael Bourn and Lance Berkman have shown the tendency to take walks. Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada were completely dependent on their batting averages (and therefore BABIP) to keep their OBPs afloat. Hunter Pence showed the ability to be more patient than he was in 2008, but it's all relative.

With Miguel Tejada's future as an Astro in question, and Tommy Manzella most likely making a move to SS, it doesn't appear that our chances improve with one player substitution will improve dramatically. Manzella will most likely struggle at the plate and has never been the most patient of hitters even in the minors. Chris Johnson needs more time in AAA, and would most likely be a disaster if he was forced to be our everyday third baseman in 2010. Russell Braynan, among free agents, has played third base and would be an upgrade in both OBP and SLG%. True, his defense would be a drawback, but as I said earlier, there will be no cure alls available for the Astros. Plug him in for a year, he won't cost the team any draft picks, and see if he can hold down the fort until better alternatives come along.

JR Towles' MLB equivalent line from Baseball Prospectus projects him to be very respectable offensively in 2010. An OPS in the mid .700s would be much preferred than any free agent, or the idea of forcing Jason Castro into the mix right off the bat.

The outfield is pretty much set. Taking out Jason Michaels, Darin Erstad and even Aaron Boone and inserted competent players who will actually make pitchers earn outs will do wonders for a bench that was most certainly worth negative dollars in 2009. Asking anything more from Michael Bourn may seem greedy, but I think it's reasonable to believe that he can become an even better outfielder, base runner and hitter. With patience comes power, and while it's unrealistic to believe Mike will ever hit even 10 home runs in a season, but adding to his doubles total is a definite possibility.

Hunter Pence is still in the infancy of his career, and more will have to be asked of him in the future. Being a more selective base runner, altering his approach at the plate to allow for more productive at bats are keys to his ascendancy in the hierarchy of NL outfielders. Far too often Hunter will be taken out of at bats, left only to protect the outside of the plate against sliders. Remedying this flaw in his game would do wonders to up our run production and on base average.