SB Nation - David Dellucci

Indians manager Eric Wedge fired

Jay — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:42:55 -0000

The Indians have informed Eric Wedge that he willl not return as manager next season. His entire coaching staff is also being released, although one or more may be re-hired by the next manager. Wedge and the coaches will finish out the season in Boston this weekend.

Wedge has a career record of 560–568 and is the fifth longest-tenured manager in major league baseball. Clint Hurdle, who previously held the fifth slot, was fired earlier this year by the Rockies. The Indians opened the season 14–26 and more recently went through a 3–20 stretch.

Shapiro's comments from today's 1:30 p.m. press conference, courtesy of woodsmeister [followed by my comments]:

Next manager strong voice in determining staff, so staff will not be back. [Pretty standard move.]
Wedge “epitome of team player”, “exemplary leader.” [I don't doubt this, but that doesn't mean he created an environment conducive to winning or got the most out of each player.]
On why – “accountability lies across the organization.” This starts with Shapiro, extends to operations staff and players. “As we examined everything … we felt this was the right time to make a change on Eric … Arrived at decision collectively that this was the right time for a change.” [Of course, we likely won't ever know who really wanted what, among Shapiro, Antonetti, and the Dolans.]
“My reluctance is more related to my emotions, and my underlying respect for Eric.”
“Any time there is change, there is an opportunity, and we have to seize the opportunity.” [Another management fortune cookie.]
“I was hopeful that this wasn’t going to come. I was hopeful that there would be an opportunity to create a more positive environment for him to continue here.” [Coming close to saying this is a PR firing only, but maybe "positive environment" refers to the clubhouse as much as the public perception.]
“From the time we’d made the decision, Eric’s known.” [He clearly knew when Castro posted that last Q&A.]
On why fans Ohio don’t like Wedge — “He’s consistent. This is an entertainment business and maybe he’s not flamboyant enough.” [Maybe. Or maybe it's all the losing. How many managers are actually popular?]
“The goal would be to build a team that never dips too far down, that has opportunities to contend and play in the postseason as regularly as possible. I think the goal does evolve as the game evolves, and as the terrain evolves. I would hope we never go through a prolonged losing period and have consistent windows to contend.” [In a way, this was Wedge's downfall. The 2006 and 2008 clubs posted mediocre records but not out-and-out disasters. This was his first truly bad club.]
On Wedge -“He’s very consistent with the values of Northeast Ohio. He’s a blue collar worker, hard-nosed guy, extremely honest. Extremely consistent. In the end, maybe why, this isn’t entertainment, it’s business. Maybe he wasn’t flamboyant enough, kept his feelings internal. Fans want to see those, on the shirtsleeve, they want to feel the frustration, they want to feel the emotion, and Eric, to protect the players, didn’t often do that.” [Yet he still dimed out Peralta repeatedly.]
“There were tough times, when he and I bumped heads.” [Wouldn't we love to know what those were, other than cutting loose Brandon Phillips.]

And now comments from Wedge:

It was his decision to stick around the last few games. “I’d still want to finish what we started here. It would be the right thing for the players. One thing we’ve always done here is to put the players first.”
“I think it’s how you finish, not how you start.” [Unintentional humor here? Maybe if he thought it was "how you start," we wouldn't have started terribly almost every year of his tenure.]
“I’m the manager of the team. It’s my job to go out and win ballgames. You know, there's not an asterisk after that saying, it's only if you have this, that or the other. I’m a big believer in being accountable for what I do. I preach that to the players, it's the way I live my life.”
On managing a mid-market team – “It’s more challenging but it’s also more rewarding. What we came so close to doing in 07 is pretty special stuff. One thing about the Dolans – they’ve always allowed Mark and me as leaders of this organization to do what we think is best for this team.” [He hints here at an organizational issue, i.e., the manager as somewhat co-equal to the GM.]
Hasn’t given much thought to what’s next. Concerned about “finishing this thing off the right way.”
“As a manager, you have to work off the players you have. That dictates how you manage. It’s my job to work off that and win as many games as possible.”
“I was here in the beginning, I understand really rebuilding, starting from scratch. This is not that situation here in Cleveland. You need to understand that, fans need to understand that. You have a solid organization, a solid minor league system. You have a process that works, here in this market. So they’re going to be fine. You have to work off the market, the economy, what you’re able to do here. You have some young, talented baseball players that are learning every day."
"It's been a long run here, I guess as managers go. I've got a great deal of respect for the city of Cleveland and Tribe fans all over the place, and I'm a big believer in wearing the uniform with pride."

Fire Everyone! - Derek Shelton

Ryan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:56:11 -0000

Derek Shelton and Kenny Lofton

View full size photo »

This is the second installment in a 12-part series.

Derek Shelton became the Indians hitting coach in June 2005, replacing Eddie Murray. At the time, the Indians ranked towards the bottom of the league in hitting, and manager Eric Wedge thought it was time for a change:

"It's not just about right now, it's just about what we feel is best for our ballclub today, the future and long term," said manager Eric Wedge, who told Murray he was fired. "From an offensive standpoint, I feel we can do better. But it's not just about Eddie Murray. I just felt that we needed to make a change and I felt this was best for our ballclub."

Specifically, it was thought that Murray's coaching style was what caused his dismissal. Murray did not take the initiative in giving hitting advice, leaving it up the player to come to him. If Murray had had a more aggressive style of coaching, the move might not have been made even with a struggling offense, for the Indians value a satisfactory process almost as much as satisfactory results.

So, in looking at whether Derek Shelton should keep his job after the season, I have to either completely leave out of my analysis Shelton's coaching style, or to make assumptions based on snippets of articles or interviews. And all of this is moot if Eric Wedge isn't here next year, for the hitting coach comes under the manager's purview. So, for the purposes of this article, I'll assume that the Indians are satisfied with his coaching demeanor and style, and that Eric Wedge will have the opportunity to make a decision on Shelton this winter. That leaves me mainly with statistical analysis and subjective reasoning, though I have several angles in mind in which to look at the numbers.

1. Do established major-leaguer hitters improve once they arrive in Cleveland? And, did established major-league hitters improve once Shelton joined the team?

Let's tackle the performance of the 2005 team first. Murray was fired the first week of June, so let's see if there was any measurable change among the everyday players from June onwards:

OPS+	April	May	Murray	June	July	August	September	Shelton	Better
Victor Martinez	68	61	64.5	134	142	184	150	152.5	Shelton
Ben Broussard	95	138	116.5	66	72	130	118	96.5	Murray
Ron Belliard	138	101	119.5	81	86	97	138	100.5	Murray
Jhonny Peralta	97	155	126	76	118	108	96	99.5	Murray
Aaron Boone	33	22	27.5	119	107	119	74	104.75	Shelton
Coco Crisp	78	165	121.5	116	93	114	144	116.75	Murray
Grady Sizemore	64	109	86.5	184	76	132	142	133.5	Shelton
Casey Blake	64	83	73.5	109	83	141	97	107.5	Shelton
Travis Hafner	126	118	122	199	232	158	182	192.75	Shelton
Jose Hernandez	59	20	39.5	112	118	12	47	72.25	Shelton

Of the 10 players who got 200 or more at-bats, six of them improved under Shelton. Among those were very significant improvements, namely Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. The overall team offense improved as well:

OPS+

April

May

Murray

June

July

August

September

Shelton

Better

Team

100

113

103

126

117

Shelton

So it looks like Shelton was an improvement over Murray. What about Shelton versus other hitting coaches? Here's a list of established major-leaguers the Indians brought in from 2006 through this year, their previous offensive numbers, and what they did in an Indians uniform (OPS+ with the Indians in bold):

OPS+	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Jason Michaels	98	111	85	87	40	102	Down
Trot Nixon	123	109	96	78	54	x	Down
David Dellucci	96	126	123	76	85	37	Down
Jamey Carroll	92	68	94	56	85	88	Up
Mark DeRosa	59	97	108	102	118	105	Even
Josh Barfield	x	x	96	54	x	x	Way Down

Aside from Jamey Carroll, there's no success story to point to. Most of the players on this list were older role players coming into their stints with the Indians, so there probably wasn't much upside for Shelton to tap. However, Josh Barfield was a big miss for Shelton, as he went from a decent starter with Padres to on the cusp of bombing out of the majors altogether on Shelton's watch. The others don't bother me as much; Jason Michaels has gone back to being a platoon player, and Dellucci and Nixon were winding down their careers.

2. Do players improve or regress during their years with Shelton?

Here's a list of everyday players who have spent at least two full seasons with the Indians during the Shelton era:

OPS+	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Victor Martinez	130	121	127	85	115	Down
Ben Broussard	105	109	125	x	x	Up
Jhonny Peralta	137	83	100	108	91	Down
Aaron Boone	82	77	x	x	x	Down
Grady Sizemore	123	132	122	128	103	Even
Casey Blake	99	114	101	110	x	Up
Travis Hafner	168	179	118	65	121	Down
Jason Michaels	x	85	87	40	x	Down
Ryan Garko	x	113	117	97	113	Even
Shin-Soo Choo	x	118	x	146	123	Up
Franklin Gutierrez	x	67	103	80	x	Down
Kelly Shoppach	x	x	101	123	91	Down
Asdrubal Cabrera	x	x	101	88	106	Up

Some of these trends can be chalked up to forces beyond a coach's reach, like Travis Hafner's injuries. The two that stick out to me are Jhonny Peralta (on the bad side) and Shin-Soo Choo (on the good side). Peralta's 2005 season (at age 23) seemed like the beginning of a fantastic career, but since then he hasn't come close to that production. Conversely, Choo started out his major-league career struggling at the plate, but since the second half of last year has become one of the better corner outfielders in the American League. Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Blake have both had good seasons since leaving the Indians, but nothing markedly better than some of the years they had under Shelton.

3. How has the Indians offense fared versus the rest of the American League?

AL Ranks	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Batting Average	5	4	7	12	6
On-Base Percentage	3	3	5	7	5
Slugging Percentage	3	4	5	7	8
Runs	4	2	6	6	6

Even with some upheaval in the last couple years, the Indians have remained a league-average offense. Considering that Progressive Field has played as a neutral park during the last couple years, that's a decent showing. It certainly wasn't the offense that drove the Indians out of contention this season.

Final Analysis

Each season since Derek Shelton arrived in Cleveland, the Indians have finished at least in the top half in the league in runs. During his first two seasons, the Indians offense was among the best in baseball. Although he's had a couple misses (Josh Barfield, Jhonny Peralta), the rest of his record stacks up well, especially given the circumstances in 2008 and 2009. If Wedge isn't fired, he should be brought back. And even if there is a new manager, Shelton should be recommended to remain in his position.

SB Nation AL East Midseason Round Table Part II

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 22:20:26 -0000

So, here's part II of the AL East Midseason Roundtable Tom and I did with the other good people of SB Nation: Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosting and participating were R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focused on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Of course, this roundtable pales in comparison of Jays content (not to mention pretty colours) to our very own Bluebird Banter trade deadline roundtable, part one of which is here and other parts of which are forthcoming! Anyway, more after the jump:

Part 2: Second Half Storylines

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What surprising story lines from the first half of the season have shaped the standings the most?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): The Rays ferocious offense and lackadaisical starting pitching. Nobody expected Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, and probably even David Price to struggle this much.

Tom Dakers (Bluebird Banter): For us, injuries to starting pitchers. 7 pitchers that have started for us are injured at the moment and 2 others have spent time on the DL.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For all the Jays pitching injuries, it seems every piece of spaghetti has stuck to the wall.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's true. The injuries have really given the Jays a chance to showcase their pitching depth. Not all the replacement starts have been great, but by and large the pitchers called up from the minors have done a tremendous job.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There have been plenty of surprises in Baltimore this year, but given the overall ineptitude of the team they've hardly shaped the standings. I think the offensive outburst by the Blue Jays to start the year was the most surprising thing to me in the East. I mean, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro aren't bad players, but really? They've come back to earth now but the fact that the Jays were in first place for nearly two months is mind boggling.

Tom Dakers (Bluebird Banter): Hill and Scutaro were balanced out by our two best offensive players from last year (Vernon Wells and Alex Rios) forgetting how to use their bats. Wells might be pulling out of it. Rios, not so much. But nothing good is going to happen unless we go a little while between pitcher injuries.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Fair point about Rios and Wells but the fact remains I couldn't have imagined the Blue Jays putting up the run totals they did before the season started. It seemed like every time I looked at the scoreboard in the first part of the season the Jays were tossing up a ton of runs. Of course, playing outside the division for such a long stretch helped.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): How good Brett Gardner has been. We knew he could run and play D, but his batting line has made him (to this point) one of the best CFers in the game. Yes, you read that right. He's been the ninth best this season, ahead of guys like BJ Upton, Adam Jones and Jacoby Ellsbury. We would've been happy with just steals and defense, but his impressive batting line of .287/.360/.416 is what's propelling him that high.

On the other side, Chien Ming-Wang has been dreadful. That also has been a surprise. Despite coming off a serious injury, we expected at least league average innings from him. Instead we've gotten one of the worst stretches in MLB history. He's on the DL for the second time this year. Is it the injuries, or has he forgotten how to pitch?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I guess there really isn't any surprising story lines anymore. The biggest story line at the beginning of the season was the mysterious case of David Ortiz, but since then he's figured things out (7 HR in June, 3 so far in July).

The lack of a real shortstop is a story line, but it certainly isn't anything surprising when you have injury-prone Jed Lowrie slotted in as the starter and Julio Lugo as a backup. However, with that said, the greatest surprise has been Nick Green, a journeyman middle infielder that has never really had any success -- until this year. Green's average has dropped to .262 recently, but the Sox are 39-18 when he starts and, despite his horrid defense, he's been a great addition.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which of those surprises are most likely to continue throughout the rest of the season? I.e. which are flukes and which are for real?

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Of the two aforementioned Yankee story-lines, the one I most believe in is Gardner. There's no reason for his speed and D to drop off, and his batting line, while surprising, is far from exceptional. I can definitely see him continuing it. As for Wang, I just don't see him coming off another injury having a good second half.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): I do think there will be a dropoff from Marco Scutaro and, at least in power output, from Aaron Hill (more doubles, less home runs), though I do think Hill is for real (Scutaro is such an unusual case I honestly don't know what to think). One player I think could keep it up is Ricky Romero - before this season, J.P. Ricciardi was a laughingstock in Toronto for drafting Romero, but Ricky put together a great half season and I think there's every reason to think he can continue to be at least a very solid mid-rotation arm going forward - if he can avoid the rash of serious injuries that have plagued Toronto's young pitchers. Though Romero has gotten a bit lucky with runners left on and could see a little regression in his ERA (it's 2.96 at the moment), he is both limiting walks (3.08 BB/9 innings) and missing bats (7.52 K/9) quite well. He has three high-quality pitches and is getting a good amount of ground balls.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): David Ortiz, if we consider him a "surprise" still, will continue to hit. He's been looking great recently and, to put it simply, you can never get Ortiz out of the limelight. As for Green, it's hard to tell what his future is. Lowrie is set to come off the disabled list soon, so the Red Sox have a decision to make: who's the backup infielder, Lugo or Green? Many think Lugo could be cut soon (because who would trade for him?), leaving the backup job all Green's.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which big local stories aren't getting as much attention from the national media? Should they be?

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The rookie parade in Baltimore has been exciting, but the national media has only focused on Matt Wieters. He's THE big story, of course, but the fact is in addition to Wieters, the starting LF and 3/5 of the rotation are rookies. Two of those rookies, Nolan Reimold and and Brad Bergesen, have been my happiest surprise this year. Reimold leads rookies in a number of offensive categories and Bergesen has emerged as the team's best starting pitcher.

Should the national media be paying attention? It's hard to say. A favorite past time of O's fans is lamenting the fact that no one notices when the Orioles do well, but the fact is they are currently irrelevant. Hopefully one day soon the Orioles will be splashed all over national news publications and networks, but until they start to actually succeed it's difficult to justify. An article about Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis did make the front page of ESPN.com recently, so perhaps our time is finally arriving.

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Attendance, thank heavens ESPN and company aren't harking on that, but the local papers can still turn to it for a quick response.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): The Orioles are one of two teams to whole-heartedly take the "three center fielders" approach this year. How's that working out, both at the plate and in the field?

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Before the season started all signs pointed to the Orioles outfield being one of the best defensive trios in the majors. Well I don't know what happened but the defense hasn't been great at all. Nick Markakis, who has always been a defensive asset, has taken a real tumble. His UZR/150 in '08 was 11.1; this year it's -15.9. I have no idea what the difference is with him. His arm seems as strong and accurate as it was last year, but he seems to make bad decisions on plays off the scoreboard or close to the wall. Hopefully it's just an aberration. Nick had a lot of big changes in the off season, getting married in the fall and having his first child during spring training. His offense has been down as well and I'm hoping he's adjusting to a new way of life and will get both sides of his game back on track soon. Adam Jones has had a similar defensive drop this year. He plays too shallow for my tastes and I think it hurts him. Often when he is racing back on a ball of his head he seems to get a bit twisted around. It's different than the effortless gliding you expect from Adam. Luckily his offense has picked up so considerably from last year that it hasn't hurt his overall production as much as it could. It's still disappointing though. The Felix Pie experiment ended quickly and his replacement Nolan Reimold doesn't much fit in with a "three center fielders" philosophy. I'd say the O's outfield defense has been one of the biggest let downs of the season for me.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): It's hard to say the national media doesn't cover anything at all when the Boston Globe alone has at least four reporters at each and every game. That doesn't even factor in the Herald, Providence Journal, yadda, yadda, yadda. With that said, they do a great job, but it is hard to pick something they haven't already stabbed at at least 10 times already.

One thing worth noting is how great of a job George Kottaras is doing as the backup catcher -- a.k.a. Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. The thing is, no one is hearing his name mentioned. You know why? Because he's doing a good job and when Wake's catcher is doing a good job, you don't hear a peep. But when you start seeing passed balls left and right, that's when you hear about the catcher. Kottaras, though, as a rookie is doing a great job. I don't even care about his .218 batting average. That's good enough to be Wake's backup catcher. The future Red Sox catcher, too? We'll see.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Well, Ricky Romero is starting to draw some accolades for his exceptional performance thus far, and Aaron Hill improbably made the all-star team. Adam Lind didn't, but, being a DH, he wasn't on the initial ballot, and so it was quite impressive just to see him on the final player ballot. To me, the most interesting stories not being told belong to Marco Scutaro and Scott Rolen. GM J.P. Ricciardi traded nothing for Marco Scutaro and then promptly signed him to a dirt-cheap 2-year deal. He, seemingly alone of the GMs of the league, saw Scutaro as a potential everyday shortstop (though not so much so that he didn't also sign David Eckstein prior to last season). And Scutaro has risen to the challenge, walking in 14% of his at-bats and putting up a .355 wOBA out of the leadoff spot. Marco has been incredibly patient (swinging at only 11% of pitches outside the strike zone) and also has 25 doubles already. Who knows if he can keep it up, but it's certainly not a BABIP illusion of the type you often see in 1/2 season outlier results. To top it off, he is playing absolutely exceptional defense at shortstop. For a player to change this significantly at his age isn't unheard of, but it's pretty close.

As for Rolen, he struggled so mightily with injuries last year that it has been great to see him put together such a strong first half. His new swing mechanics, built to compensate for his shoulder injury, have produced a ridiculous number of line drive singles and doubles (he's batting .330 with 26 doubles and a 27.5% line drive rate so far). that have compensated for him hitting just 6 home runs. And he makes highlight reel plays on a daily basis at third base, leading more and more people to suggest that we are seeing a historically good defensive third baseman (though I should point out that UZR has him at only above-average so far this season). Throw in clever baserunning and all that good intangible stuff, to the extent that you care to, and it's clear why he's become such a favourite of Toronto fans and media, and, as yet, a (mostly untold) great comeback story for this season.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): I've been thinking about this question for a couple days, but still don't have a good answer. It seems that every Yankee story is a national story, but I suppose the fine play of Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena haven't hit the big-time yet; both filled in for injured players and exceeded expectations. They held their own at the plate and played great defense, something we're not accustomed to seeing from backups. They had to be sent down to when the normal backups returned (and also to get more playing time), but I expect to see them a lot next year as the primary backups.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What story lines will we see in the second half of the season that most people aren't expecting?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): There's a few exciting ones that could crop up. Everyone will be on their heels to see how many bags Jacoby Ellsbury will end up stealing. He has 40 now and is on pace for 76. That may not seem like anything great to some teams, but this is the Red Sox -- they're like dinosaurs on the basepaths. One story line I don't want to see, but we could, is Jed Lowrie going on the DL again. It seems like he can never stay healthy.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Instead of getting worse, the Orioles might actually get better. If Chris Tillman is added to the rotation along with Bergesen, Hernandez, Guthrie, and Hill/Berken, it could get exciting. Not to mention the O's offense has not been as good as they can be, and if they can turn it up in the 2nd half, playing Baltimore might not be the cake walk the AL East contenders hope it will be.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): I think the Jays will go on a surprising little run, not unlike they did late last season. The rotation has been in a constant state of flux but could benefit from Shaun Marcum's return, which the team has slated for August - a Halladay/Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Scott Richmond et. al. rotation is actually quite good and could string together some wins. The truth is that the Jays have played quite a bit better than their record would indicate and could get even better if the pitching finally stabilizes and Travis Snider makes his way back to the big club -even if he doesn't break out, he'll certainly be better than David Dellucci has been. I was at a Jays-Orioles game this weekend and an O's fan asked me "doesn't having David Dellucci negate the point of even having the DH?"

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Johnny Damon. He's having yet another very solid year (in the last year of his contract). He'll try to play every day to show he's durable, but will the Yankees re-sign him, offer him arbitration, or let him walk? It will depend on his second half. Hideki Matsui is also in the last year of his deal, so we're probably about to witness the last 70-odd games of his MLB career (as I expect he'll either retire or return to NPB).

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): How about ending with one bold prediction we won't hold you accountable for if you're wrong, but we'll worship at your feet for if it comes true?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Travis Snider will end the season with 20 major-league home runs.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Jason Bay will have a new contract before the end of the season. That doesn't sound very bold, but Red Sox policy is that they do not negotiate contracts during a season.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Your 2009 AL RoY will be from the Orioles, but it won't be Matt Wieters. It'll be Brad Bergesen.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Chien Ming-Wang comes back in early August and has a stellar close to the season. A man can dream, can't he?

AL East SB Nation Midseason Roundtable: The Trade Deadline

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:23:15 -0000

So, Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosted a roundtable featuring bloggers from each SB Nation AL East blog: R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focuses on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Anyway, without further adeiu:

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): I think the Rays could buy and sell. If someone comes along with an enticing offer for Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir, I fully expect the Rays to listen. At the same time, seeing them acquire a cheap catcher wouldn't shock me either.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Historically, the Jays have been quiet in July in terms of deals - not buying or selling. This season could be somewhat different. Of course everyone has heard the Roy Halladay trade rumours but I have to say, I don't think it's particularly likely he gets dealt before next year's trade deadline, though you never know. Scott Rolen could be interesting to some teams, but the Jays would likely need to get back someone who could play third base next season. Lyle Overbay has slumped lately but he is still having a solid season and could be a useful piece. And if anyone needs a shortstop short-term, Marco Scutaro will be a free agent after this season and is having a very fine season on both sides of the ball. The Jays would be looking to get young position players back, particularly in the infield, as only Aaron Hill is signed after the 2010 season. They could also be looking for a young power hitter. The Jays would love to trade Vernon Wells, of course, but his deal makes that very difficult, even without the no-trade clause.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There is no question that the Orioles should be sellers this year. They aren't going anywhere in the standings and they have a number of free agents to-be who could provide value to contending teams. Danys Baez has seen a career revival this year after missing all of last season. He's a FA next year and I can't imagine the O's bringing him back unless he takes a considerable pay cut. Aubrey Huff, also an upcoming FA, has dropped off after a great 2008 but still provides left handed power and has proven himself much more adequate at 1B than could have been imagined. Some O's fans want Aubrey to be re-signed (or at least offered arbitration after the year) because the Orioles don't have an immediate solution to replace him in 2010. Plus Huff has really endeared himself to fans and has publicly stated that he wants to remain an Oriole. He has regrets about leaving the Devil Rays just before they crossed the line into contending, and he's scared to miss that boat with the O's as well. Other possible trade pieces for the Orioles include George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Luke Scott. I think the O's may make a few trades, but Andy MacPhail is nothing if not methodical. He won't trade just because it seems like he should and he won't give away anything if he doesn't get substantial value in return. It seems that he prefers to operate in the winter when there is more flexibility, and he's very, very deliberate. But his patience did bring us Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and more, so for now I'll defer to his wisdom.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): The Red Sox will be "buyers," if you even want to call them that. They're certainly not sellers as the team with the best team in the American League. Even though the Red Sox have been inconsistent, they may not necessarily need to trade for anything. They have a few guys like Jed Lowrie coming off the disabled list that will instantly shore up some holes (of course, that's if he stays healthy). So for another year under Theo Epstein, the Sox might not make a huge splash -- unlike last year, when that guy named Manny, I think, was traded.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Catcher, corner outfield, pitching. John Jaso might be able to help out at catcher, and the other two are just for depth in the system.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): The Jays have had a huge hole at DH/LF for most of the year - Adam Lind has done a great job in one of those spots, but the other one has been occupied by the likes of Kevin Millar and David Dellucci. Now that Travis Snider is back from a back/shoulder injury, if he starts hitting well, he could be called up and fill the spot. The Jays' pitching depth is quite impressive, but they will be relying on young and inexperienced starters to fill 4/5 of the rotation so an arm that could add some stability there would also be good, though they might be content to let the rookies work through it. All of them have showed quite a bit of promise. Shortstop remains a huge concern long-term with Marco Scutaro set to become a free agent after the season and no one to replace him in the Jays' system. But a hole at SS is nothing new for the Jays.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): I have to think that the Orioles FO is looking for solutions to 3B and 1B for the immediate future, with SS a slightly more distant concern. Defensively I've had no complaints with Mora but his offense is simply atrocious. He has an option for next year but I will be shocked if it is picked up. There's no internal solution to the 3B issue and Mora isn't getting any better, so I hope that MacPhail has an external solution in mind. As for 1B, the O's only real hitting prospect, Brandon Snyder, could fill that role next year maybe, but it's no sure thing. For the rest of '09, Aubrey Huff will be fine. He's a 2nd half hitter and I'm confident he'll pick up the pace after the AS break.

The O's pitching at the MLB level is certainly sub-par, but I don't know anyone who considers it a "hole." We're all waiting patiently for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and a number of other lesser prospects to come up to the bigs and save us. We could see Tillman as early as this year which excites me greatly.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): One thing they certainly do need is a defensive shortstop. Julio Lugo and Nick Green just ain't cutting it, but Jed Lowrie, when he comes off the DL, might, so who knows at this point if a trade is necessary. And the Sox might say they need a big bat to help out Ortiz, because let's face it: can he keep this up for this rest of the season? I'm not so sure. The Sox also might be looking for a third baseman because Mike Lowell has had his issues lately, and I don't think the Sox really want to have Kevin Youkilis over at third all the time. Other than that, I don't think the Sox will be going after much. They certainly don't need any pitchers, but could trade one (Takashi Saito namely).

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): As always, the Yankees will be buyers, and would be even if they weren't three back in the division. Pitching is the biggest weakness, and Cashman should feel free to address both the bullpen and the rotation. Who knew Wang and Pettitte would be this bad? Joba's not going deep enough, and Brian Bruney has been oscillating between injured and ineffective.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Gregg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, worst case: someone like Miguel Olivo.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): R.J., I'd love to see a trade with the Rays that nets the Rays Gregg Zaun, but something tells me it'd be a tough sell. Matt Wieters credits Zaun a lot with helping him in every aspect of being a ML catcher and if their mentor/mentee relationship is really that strong the O's might not want to break it up.

As for O's trade targets, I haven't heard anything specific. Everything centering around the Orioles, trade-wise, explores only the pieces the O's would give away, not what they'd get in return. Whoever it is, I'd imagine it would be mostly minor leaguers.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): All the shortstop names have dropped off the table so far (Omar Vizquel anyone?), but other names have surfaced for 3B like Garret Atkins. Don't color me impressed. The other names that could fill a gap are the Nats' Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn -- if the price is right.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Huston Street has been discussed. Ken Rosenthal (take it for what it's worth) says the Yanks are one of the main players for Halladay. I'd like to throw Cliff Lee's name into the mix. He's obviously not on Halladay's level, but is younger and would require significantly less in terms of prospects.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Basically the top three in the system: Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, and Wade Davis. I'd probably throw Jeremy Hellickson in that group as well.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): You won't see Travis Snider or left-handed starter Brett Cecil traded. Actually, I doubt that the Jays are going to be willing to trade much in the way of prospects this July.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The Orioles aren't currently in the business of trading prospects and young major leaguers. I'd imagine that once the pitching starts to take form, perhaps next year, MacPhail will start using his major league ready pieces to fill in the gaps. I haven't heard anything official about players being off limits, but it'll be a cold day in hell before Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis are traded.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): While Clay Buchholz's name comes up a lot, he's been untouchable for a few years now and I don't think that will change now. Michael Bowden, however, who is a poor-man's Buchholz, is almost as good and could be up for grabs. Daniel Bard, the fireballing reliever who is impressing scouts every day, could also be traded because let's face it: he's just a reliever. I don't think any, however, will be traded.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): The big four are Hughes, Joba, Austin Jackson and Jesus. For the Yanks to land Halladay, it would require at least two of them; however, Cashman has shown a reticence to deal 'home-grown' players, especially the upper tier ones, so I doubt they get Halladay. Two intriguing pitchers that could get dealt are Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Two big keys: Jed Lowrie coming back to shortstop 100 percent healthy. If he can be healthy, he has shown in the past he can play some really good ball. The other key: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been absolutely horrid this season. But if he could come off the disabled list and pitch like he did last season, you can wrap up the AL Pennant and put it in a box on Yawkey Way.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): 1) Aliens attack and destroy Boston, 2) The Mets and Yankees switch divisions, 3) The entire Rays team comes down with mono except for Dioner Navarro, and 4) the Blue Jays trade the Orioles Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero for Felix Pie.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's hard to imagine the confluence of events that would have to take place for such a thing to occur, but one thing is certain: the Toronto sports media would still find plenty to complain about.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Both Wang and Joba have to return to 2008 form (in Wang's case, pre-injury). Adding a good reliever would make it easier to move Hughes back to the rotation if Wang/Joba don't return to form.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Great question. I'd consider any acquisition of a young position player under team control for the next several years a big win. Particularly at shortstop or third base, where the Jays have little organizational depth in the high minors (and prospects in the low minors who aren't exactly lighting it up at the moment). The Jays have a lot of pitching depth, but not all that many young pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential. With one-time future-ace Dustin McGowan's career now in doubt, adding a young, top-of-the-rotation potential pitcher to replace him would, of course, be a coup. If you could fill both of those needs by trading Roy Halladay, I think you have to at least consider it.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I'll skip this...

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): And people ask me why I don't like Red Sox fans...

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): For the past decade or so, August and September have been hard for Orioles fans to watch. The annual swoon comes at us fast and before you know it the O's are finishing the season 4-32 or something almost as ridiculous. I'd consider it a win for the O's to continue to play hard down the stretch and avoid the collapse. Hopefully the young guys on the team still have enough to prove that they won't let themselves pack it in. Another win would be continual improvement by Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even Adam Jones. And of course anything done to find help for the Orioles corner infield positions in 2010 and beyond is a bonus.

Second Half Starts the Way the First Half Ended. Jays Lose to Red Sox.

Tom Dakers — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 03:25:01 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero dives while trying to throw out Boston Red Sox's David Ortiz at first base during the first inning of a baseball game in Toronto on Friday July 17, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 1

The second half starts the way the first half ended. When you only get 5 hits in a game and 3 of those are from Lyle Overbay, you know you aren't going to get a lot of runs. There really was only one inning that we hit the ball hard too. In the 4th Adam Lind hit the ball as hard as you'll see it hit. But then he made as poor a base running decision as you will see in a while right after. Rolen hit a ground ball to the pitcher Clay Buchholz and Adam for some reason decided to run to 3rd. Just a dumb move. We've seen more than our share of bad base running this year.

Then, in one another one of those moments that seem to keep happening to us, Overbay hit a ground rule double. If the ball hadn't bounced over the wall, Rolen would have scored from 1st on the play. As it turned out neither play cost us because Alex Rios hit a sac fly and scored Rolen and Jose Bautista lined out very hard right at Dustin Pedroia. So, likely, the plays didn't hurt us. Of course, you don't know how different the inning would have been if Lind didn't make the mistake.

Ricky Romero wasn't great. It look like his arm slot was changing by the pitch at times, Maybe the extra rest over the break wasn't good for him. He struck out 8 but walked 5, gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 4.1 innings. He did make some good pitches but not consistently. Shawn Camp pitched 2.2 perfect innings. I'm not sure what he is doing different this season but he has been really good. Jeremy Accardo and Brandon League each pitched a good inning.

There was a strange moment, when David Dellucci came out of the game in the 8th and John McDonald played the outfield for the first time in his career. Nothing came Mac's way in his 2 inning in left. Dellucci took a pitch off his foot (which he swung at, that pretty much tells you all you need to know about how Dellucci has been doing for us) in the bottom of the 7th. I guess he'll get x-rays and we'll know more tomorrow. Injured or not, maybe we could try someone else in his spot.

Jay of the Day is Lyle Overbay (.121 WPA). Honorable mention to Camp. Suckage Jays are Ricky Romero (-.231), Aaron Hill (-.130) and Rod Barajas (-.107).

Tomorrow at 1:00 Eastern Marc Rzepczynski (0-1, 3.00), who has been great to watch, goes against the Red Sox and Brad Penny (6-3, 4.71). It will be interesting to see who plays in the outfield tomorrow if Vernon Wells still has a stomach flu and Dellucci may have a broken toe. I'm not sure the Jays could get someone to Toronto from Vegas for the game tomorrow if they called them right now. McDonald does have a better than than Dellucci, how sad is that?

Dellucci gets his first hit, we still lose

Tom Dakers — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 00:08:23 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

5 months ago: Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones leaps and robs Toronto Blue Jays' Alex Rios of a home run in the fourth inning of a baseball game Sunday, July 12, 2009, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 4-2. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Blue Jays 2 Orioles 4

Not the way we'd like to go into the break. Those wishing for not a walk off got their way today but it wasn't great fun. David Dellucci got his first hit but Raul Chavez didn't get his first walk.

Marc Rzepczynski did a good job in his second big league start. 6 innings 5 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, 3 earned. 3 straight left handed rookies start for the Jays and three straight good starts, only one win. Shawn Camp gave up an unearned run in an inning of work, Marco Scutaro made just his 3 error of the year to help it along and Jeremy Accardo pitched a scoreless 8th.

Offensively we just didn't do enough, again. 8 hits, 2 each for Scoot and Vernon Wells. These two and Rolen are about the only hitters having a hot July, Vernon is hitting .372/.400/.581 for July. Yeah, I know, he's been hitting good on the road all year we'll believe it when he gets back to Toronto and gives us a couple of weeks of good hitting. Scoot is hitting .357/.404/.476 for July. O fors from Aaron Hill, Alex Rios and Scott Rolen. Rios did get robbed of a home run by a nice catch from Adam Jones. Hill's at .204 for the month so far. Hope he has a lot of fun at the All Star and comes back slugging.

No Jays of the Day today, Scutaro come closest at .050 WPA. Suckage Jay is Aaron Hill (-.185).

Frustrating times, as Cito said:

"We had a road trip where we scored a lot of runs and couldn't hold them, and then we couldn't score any runs," Gaston said. "We hit one day, didn't pitch one day, then we pitch and didn't hit, so that kind of sums up the road trip we just came off of here."

We gave Cito a lot of credit for the hitting at the start of the season, so I guess the proof will be if he can pull them out of their slump now.

I'm hoping there will be a couple of moves over the All-Star break. I'd like to Travis Snider back. A) he can't hit worse than Dellucci and B) even if he does let's let him learn from Cito and Tenance. Bring him up and play him everyday the rest of the way. The other, let Millar go and bring up Randy Ruiz or Brian Dopirak. Again they couldn't do much worse and Millar isn't going to be here next year (oh please let me be right on one) so we might as well take a look at guys that might be here. Give Millar Rance's job. I'm sure he'd do a great job.

Blue Jays vs Orioles boxscore

Brett Cecil, Scott Downs, and the Jays Cruise Past Orioles, 2-0

hugo — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:53:57 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Brett Cecil had a great start, but it was also oh so nice to see Scott Downs back in the closer's role for the Jays as they shut out Baltimore, 2-0. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays got their Baltimore series off to a great start today with a 2-0 win against the Orioles, bringing your heroic azure corvids back to .500.

On the Mound:

Brett Cecil threw a very good 6 scoreless innings, rebounding from a rough one his last time out. Cecil, pitching in his home state of Maryland in front of his family and friends, took "Manly Deeds, Womanly Words" (the absurd state motto) to heart with 5 Ks and 2 walks, giving up just four singles. Cecil looked very good, generally keeping his fastball down and using his slider and change well. He got a strikeout on his curveball which was good to see.

At the Plate:

It was a quiet day for the Jays at the plate against starter Jason Berken and 2 relievers, with most of the damage being done by the bottom of the lineup. Lyle Overbay had a good day at the plate with 2 walks (the team's only two) and a single, Alex Rios was even better with two doubles, and Raul Chavez had an RBI double. Even whipping boy David Dellucci cashed a run with an RBI groundout. Everyone else was quiet, most notably Scott Rolen, who had his 25-game hitting streak snapped.

From the Pen:

Shawn Camp was initially called on to relieve Cecil in the 7th and did not look sharp at all. He gave up a double and walked Cesar Izturis (always a bad move), getting his only out on a Matt Wieters lineout. Jesse Carlson came in and got out of the inning with the lead and the shutout intact - a Brian Roberts long fly to right and an Adam Jones foulout to first. Carlson and Frasor split the 8th without much ado, and then Scott Downs was absolutely filthy in the ninth, carving up the Os with a groundout and two strikeouts - his hook was back in a big way.

It was a quiet day for the offense, but a good efficient win for a team that hasn't had many lately. Two more rookies will go at it tomorrow with Ricky Romero for the Jays and Brad Bergesen, who's been Baltimore's best pitcher, for the O's.

Hated the Strike Zone Tonight, Jays Lose to Rays in Extras

Tom Dakers — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:24:35 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

Yes, vote early and often for Adam Lind for the All-Star game.. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

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Blue Jays1 Rays 3

Marc Rzepczynski pitched great. 6 innings, 2 hits, 7 strikeouts, 4 walks. One of the walks forced in a run. Gameday has one of the four balls, of that walk, right on the inside corner. Is too bad but is life. He Whose Name Can't Be Spelled, looks like a keeper. He's young and there will be ups and downs but boy he looked great.

Speaking of looked great, Shawn Camp went 3 shutout innings. I don't understand what happened to the reliever I hated last year. He has been terrific over the last little while, pitching multiple innings and doing it very well. Brandon League pitched a good tenth inning, helped by a terrible bunt attempt. In the 11th he got two quick outs. Then he got two strikes on Ben Zobrist and then walked him on four pitches. Again Game Day showed one of those pitches on the inside corner. If League gets that call, he's done a great job. He didn't. Then Pat Burrell hit a walk off homer. Even though Pat Tabler said League had 'only' given up 4 homers before that, that is too many for someone that has thrown as few pitches as League has and 5 is worse.

Yeah there was complaining in the thread about League pitching a second inning, but he looked good in the second inning, till the homer, and we do need to rest some arms in the pen.

Offensively we got 10 hits today, but could only push one run across. We had lots of chances. In the 2nd, Vernon Wells was on third with 2 out and David Dellucci struckout. Dellucci still doesn't have hit with the Jays, JP there is no reason to keep him around as long as you kept Wilkerson. In the 3rd with Aaron Hill on first, Adam Lind hit a ground rule double. Had the ball not bounced over the wall, Hill would have scored. Then with runners on second and third Rolen flied out to center.

In the 7th Vernon singled and Dellucci walked, but Barajas flied out. In the 8th we finally scored, singles by Marco Scutaro, Hill and Rolen got us a run. Then Vernon singled, but B.J Upton made a great throw to just get Hill at home. So we had the changes but a combination of bad luck and bad swings hurt.

Vernon had 3 hits, and came with in a half step of a 4th. Scoot and Hill had 2 hits each. But 0 fors for Overbay, Rios, Dellucci and Barajas hurt.

Jays of the Day are Camp (.298 WPA) and Rzepczynski (.182). Honorable mention to Hill. Suckage Jays are Overbay (-.244), Barajas (-.208), Lind (-.196) and Rios (-.195). Oh and League (-.214).

In other news Shawn Marcum might be back in August. Yeah that's another one I'll believe when I see it. Speaking of which, everyone and their brother wants to trade for Roy Halladay. Yeah I know, that's not news either, would have to be a fool not to want him on your team. Tomorrow Brian Tallet goes against Scott Kazmir (4-5, 6.79). How you go 4-5 with an ERA of almost 7 I don't know. Game thread was fun tonight, game ending not so much.

I can’t seem to find my way out of your hunting ground: Jays lose never ending game.

Tom Dakers — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:44:59 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

5 months ago: New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira, left, is tagged out attempting to score by Toronto Blue Jays catcher Raul Chavez during the first inning of a baseball game Sunday, July 5, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Blue Jays 8 Yankees 10

Ok, all I really want to say about that game is: 18 runs were scored and our DH didn't come close to a hit. Still 0 for as a Jay. You know, JP, let's release him now. I'd much rather watch Ruiz or Dopirak even if they don't hit. At least they would be interesting to watch. Heck you could release David Dellucci and Kevin Millar at the same time and bring them both up. What can it hurt. They can't be worse than 0 for. Dellucci hasn't been good since 2006.

Other than that? Brett Cecil was terrible. B.J. Ryan was worse. He was lucky that Chavez threw out Cano stealing to get him one of the two outs he was on the field for. Add in that anything hit in the air to right seems to go out in that stadium and it wasn't a fun day offensively. Jesse Carlson, Brandon League and Jason Frasor each pitched a good inning.

Joba Chamerlain wasn't any better. And he is a human rain delay. I really do wish umpires would enforce the rules about how long a pitch has to throw the ball, we got 8 runs off him in 3.2 extremely slow innings. But then we couldn't score against Jonathan Albaladejo and Alfredo Aceves in 5.1 innings.

Offensively we got hits from everyone in the lineup except for the DH who shall remain nameless (and if JP has any brains soon jobless). Aarron Hill, Adam Lind, Alex Rios and Raul Chavez each had two hits. Hill and Lind had homers and Chavez had two doubles. And we did come back from down 4-0 to take a 8-4 lead.

Unfortunately, with the extra inning game yesterday game yesterday, Cito didn't have a full bullpen today and had to try to get inning out of Cecil. And in Cecil's defense, the home run he gave up was one of those Yankee Stadium wind blown ones. And he had to try to get some outs from BJ, which was a disaster. Even Dirk Hayhurst couldn't get us quality outs.

Jays of the Day are Alex Rios (.180 WPA), Marco Scutaro (.136), Aaron Hill (.109) and Lind (.099), I'm going to give one to Chavez as well, for the 2 doubles, the caught stealing and tagging out Mark Teixeira (with an empty glove, the ball in his other hand). Suckage Jays are Cecil (-.425), Ryan (.289), Dellucci (-.201) and Wells (-.099). Scott Rolen came close to suckage numbers despite getting a hit to extend his hitting streak to 22.

Tomorrow at 1:00 Eastern we have Ricky Romero trying to end the slide against Andy Pettitte. Hopefully it won't be a never inning game like today's. I'm sure this is what hell will be like for me, a never ending game with Rance Mulliniks doing color commentary and BJ Ryan pitching.

Thanks to Torgen for the post title from Tori Amos song 'I Can't See New York'.

I'm Not the Way I Thought I Was: Solving the Blue Jays' DH-Sized Dilemma

hugo — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider's ineffectiveness and subsequent injury has left the Jays in the lurch for a competent designated hitter. How to solve this vexing problem? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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So, as you B^3-ers likely remember, the Jays had a bit of trouble at the DH spot last season. Jays' DHs batted .247/.325/.418, well below league-average DH production. It was especially problematic for a team like the 2008 Jays, who were built around pitching and defense, to have such tepid production out of the offense-only DH spot. Even worse was the production out of left field (.258/.325/.384), the second-least important defensive position.

Going into this season, Jays faithful were told that this was the year of Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Most of the "credit" for the poor DH/LF performance was due to Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench -- I won't even show their numbers, because they are awful, but just trust me -- and those 5 gentlemen were all gone. Here on B^3, we thought Lind was ready for prime-time, but we debated the merits of acquiring a LF/DH bat, especially with the market cold on guys like Pat Burrell, and starting Snider in the minors rather than just throwing him into the fire. I can't remember what we concluded, so let's assume that we all unanimously agreed that Snider wasn't quite ready to make the necessary adjustments once the league got a taste of him and that he should start in the minors.

Fast forward to the end of June, we're almost but not quite halfway through the season, and the Jays are doing well, sitting 5 games over .500 and just 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card lead. And, yet, a familiar problem...

Snider started hot but cooled off quickly and drastically. He was sent to the minors where he hurt himself and won't even be swinging a bat again until July. I think it's safe to assume he'll be a September callup, if anything. Adam Lind started the season as the regular DH and was fantastic but took over leftfield duties when Snider was sent down. Lind, unlike Snider, plays against lefties and righties (a healthy .847 OPS against lefties), so he doesn't need a platoon partner. But so who should play DH?

The Contenders:

Kevin Millar: Copacetic Up? Millar started the season as Lyle Overbay's platoon partner but Overbay has been hitting so well lately (though his numbers against lefties are pretty poor still) and offers so much more defensively that you can make the argument that Lyle should be playing every day. Millar has never shown much platoon-i-ness, and offers all that gooey clubhouse stuff, so he'd seem like a logical choice to take the everyday DH spot, right? Not so fast! You might not have noticed if you don't have a Millar effigy you punch in the face every morning like our very own Tom Dakers, but old Kev's hitting hasn't exactly been up to par lately. He's presently batting a putrid .246/.318/.388, which is actually worse than our DH production from last year. He's doing all right against lefties (.821 OPS) but absolutely putrid against righties (a Mac-like .596 OPS) so he might be half of the answer (actually more like 1/3 of it) but definitely is not the full answer. And he's been awful for the past two months (.647 OPS in May, .618 in June). Next.

Jose Bautista: Bautista has always hit lefties well -- he has a career .819 OPS against them -- and this season is no exception. Jose is batting .302/.383/.472/.855 against portsiders, definitely well enough to be the right-handed third of a DH platoon. But he has always been a bad hitter against righties, and this season, far from being an exception, has been much worse -- we're talking .217/.397/.250 bad, albeit in just 80 plate appearances. You'll notice from the high OBP that Bautista has earned a lot of walks against righties, and that's certainly true. On the flipside, he has seemed afraid to swing the bat against them, and perhaps for good reason given his poor hitting. Bautista has a long career of being a bad major-league hitter against righthanded pitching (.683 career OPS against them). Bautista wouldn't be a bad option to DH against lefties, but as an everyday DH he's a terrible choice. And of course DH-ing him would compromise his versatility in the field (since the DH can't replace a fielder unless the pitcher bats). And Jose is needed to spell Rolen fairly frequently.

Russ Adams: Recently called up to the Jays, Russ Adams isn't anybody's first idea of a DH. He has an 81 OPS+ over his major-league career and, up until recently, was a middle infielder. That said, Adams has been attempting to re-make himself into a utility player over the past few seasons, with some success. He hasn't lit up AAA at all the past two seasons, but he had a nice second half last year and started well this season (.876 OPS with Las Vegas in 2009). Of course, you have to look at those numbers in the context of the PCL, but in truth Adams has never been all that bad of a hitter against right-handed pitching. Over Russ' career, he has a .725 OPS against starboard-side hurlers, not great but considerably better than Millar and Bautista are doing against righties at the moment (and, in Bautista's case, over his career). Consider that Adams is in his hitting prime while Millar is way past it. And Russ certainly offers more than either of those two on the basepaths.

An interesting comparison for Adams is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is the same age as Adams and his career has followed a similar path - a former SS whose plate discipline in the minors didn't translate to the majors right away and who moved from SS amidst concerns about his defense. Zobrist, unlike Adams, is a switch-hitter, but he's pretty much exclusively used as a lefty hitter and has remade himself as a platoon utility player and corner-infielder. Zobrist had a great 1/3 or so of a season last year in that role and has been even better this season in the same role. He's not all that different of a hitter than Adams and, while I'm not suggesting Adams will put up an OPS north of 1.000 in 225 plate appearances, as Zobrist has done thusfar, there's at least some precedent for the idea that a former middle-infield prospect can become a successful platoon-type corner outfielder.

Randy Ruiz: Ruiz, essentially a career minor-leaguer, has a nice track record in the minors, and is currently OPS-ing .971 with AAA Las Vegas, with solid power numbers. On the other hand, he's a right-handed hitter (though he has hit well against righties in the minors) so a platoon isn't really an option and his hitting didn't translate to the majors last season in his first taste of the bigs (at 30). He probably wouldn't be any worse than starting Millar every day, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great option as an everyday DH.

David Dellucci: Dellucci was recently acquired by the Jays as a lefthanded bat and has been playing a bit in AAA. Looch hit .275/.333/.350 in 45 plate appearances for Cleveland earlier this season, isn't doing much in the minors, and is 3 years removed from his last even league average season. His bat speed seems to be fading. I don't think he's the answer either.

Brian Dopirak: He's only at AA, but with the 1st base and DH spots occupied by guys hitting well (Ruiz and Brett Harper) at AAA, he's more than earned a promotion and with the hole we have at DH, why not to the bigs? There's no doubt that Dopirak's line -- .307/.369/.580, with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 291 plate appearances -- is impressive, and he's 25 years old so there's no argument that he's too young. Dopirak, like Ruiz , Millar, and Bautista, bats righthanded, so he would need to be the everyday DH to get the at-bats he'd need to make it worth bringing him up. He's hit righties quite well this season though.

????: I haven't heard the Jays to be seriously involved in trade talks for a bat, but it's possible they could bring someone in from outside the organization to DH. Dakers has mentioned Nick Johnson, and he's certainly a good hitter (126 lifetime OPS+). He's putting up excellent numbers in a pitchers' park right now, and he is a patient, tough out with a gap to gap approach. Folks have said he's having a career year, but he's not -- he's in with his career numbers, but just healthy after an awful string of bad luck and accidents. DHing might keep him healthy, and his contract runs out at the end of this season so I can't imagine the Nationals would want more than a minor-league arm or two for him. It might be worth a look. Other possibilities? For sentimental reasons, how about Frank Catalanotto? He wouldn't cost more than a PTBNL, I'd imagine. But he hasn't done anything this season and he wasn't great last year either, so I'm not sure what type of upgrade he'd be over Dellucci. There are other bats available, so by all means, who do you want to DH for the Jays? Unless they make a move for Johnson or someone else, I'm afraid the best option is a Bautista/Adams or Millar/Adams platoon, and that's not exactly encouraging if the Jays plan to continue to contend, is it? So let's hear it -- who would you DH from now on?

Title from a great song by the great Madison, Wisconsin band Rainer Maria