SB Nation - Andy Marte

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

Is just developing a good process enough?

This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Game 162: Red Sox 12, Indians 7

Ryan — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:59:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Travis Hafner hit .321/.424/.500 over the last two weeks of the season.

Browse more photos »

It's over. Finally.

Tomo Ohka got burned for for seven earned runs in five innings, but I guess that's besides the point, for if he starts another game for the Indians, the team is heading for another season like this one. Rafael Perez, in what may have been his last appearance as member of the Indians, gave up 4 runs in just 2/3 of an inning. But, for the most part, the major player moves have happened, and whoever you've seen this month is likely who you'll see next April. I think Andy Marte bought himself another spring training, and the same with Jeremy Sowers. Kelly Shoppach will eventually be traded, but I don't think this winter is the right time to do it.

Of course, there will be a new coaching staff, and their selection should play out by the end of this month. And after that, there's free agency, which the Indians probably won't participate in, and the trade market, which they probably will take a part in. All the while we'll think back on this season as little as possible, and wish the 2010 season to get here with all haste. Thanks for sticking around until the bitter end, and may your reward be watching next year's playoff contender with the satisfaction of remembering when the groundwork was laid for it.

Next Up: A season review.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.148	Tomo Ohka	-.520
Jhonny Peralta	.110	Chris Perez	-.125
Matt LaPorta	.061	Rafael Perez	-.115

Game 161: Red Sox 11, Indians 6

Ryan — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 02:58:55 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

An ignominious end to Aaron Laffey's season.

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The Indians actually scored some runs tonight, but Aaron Laffey was awful, so the game ended in the usual way. The two teams combined for twelve runs in the first two innings, with the Red Sox accounting for eight of them. The big blow came on Victor Martinez's first career grand slam, naturally coming against the team that until two months he'd spent his entire career playing for.

Josh Beckett had very little command, missing with his fastball and hanging several curves. He had to throw over 50 pitches to get out of the second inning, but hung around long enough to qualify for a win. After the second inning, the game slowed down to a more normal pace, and true to irrelevant game that it was, Boston's starters were taken out as the contest entered the later innings.

Aaron Laffey gave eight earned runs in just two innings on seven hits and two walks, a disastrous ending to what was a pretty decent season, certainly the best season of the Indians' starters still on the roster. Jensen Lewis, in what was probably his last outing of the season, relieved Laffey and gave up two runs in two innings of work. His future is very much up in the air. Mike Gosling did an excellent job in mopup duty, giving up one run in four innings.

Next Up: Game 162. Ohka vs. Buchholz, 1:35 PM.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Asdrubal Cabrera	.128	Aaron Laffey	-.641
Michael Brantley	.097	Andy Marte	-.063
Shin-Soo Choo	.083	Matt LaPorta	-.050

Game 159: Red Sox 3, Indians 0

Ryan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:48:50 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Carlos Carrasco had to be helped off the field in the fourth inning after being struck by a line drive.

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If this game were not a tuneup for Boston starter Jon Lester, the left-hander might have finished the game. Instead, he went 6.1, and let his bullpen finish the shutout. The Indians managed two hits against Lester, and one more against three Red Sox relievers.

The run of promising finales ended at three, as Carlos Carrasco struggled against Boston's patient lineup. To cap things off, he left the game after a line drive hit him flush just above his left knee. Carrasco had to be helped off the field, a rather bad ending to his first major-league stint. The 22-year-old started five games, and went more than five innings just once. It's tough to make a call on this young a pitcher after a month's worth of starts, but to me it would make sense to have him start 2010 in Columbus, have some success, and then bring him back to the majors.

The Indians have now lost 12 straight road games, tying a franchise record (1963 and 1991).

Next Up: Sowers vs. Matsuzaka, 7:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jensen Lewis	.064	Andy Marte	-.196
Matt LaPorta	.041	Carlos Carrasco	-.167
Shin-Soo Choo	.034	Jamey Carroll	-.087

Fire Everyone! - Eric Wedge (check)

APV — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:07:55 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Wait - we're trying to score more points than the other team? I told Mark learning how to play golf was a bad idea..."

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This is the 11th installment in a 12-part series. Notes from today's press conference are here.

Evaluating managers involves consideration of a paradox. On one hand managers are often held accountable for a team's poor performance. Disappointing season — fire the manager. Players underperforming — fire the manager. And yet in addition to this concept of accountability, it is widely regarded that managers have relatively little impact on the final outcome of a season if not an individual game. Systematic comparisons between "good" managers and "bad" managers show surprisingly few differences. There is a tendency to credit players for positive performances, and blame managers and coaches for poor performances. So which is it? Is Wedge responsible for the Indians rise from a 68-win team his first season to a 93-win near playoff team just two years later? Or is he responsible for the late season collapse that kept us out of that post-season? Is he responsible for the disappointing follow-up season in 2006? Or the statement-making 2007 season in which the 96-win Cleveland team was clearly (along with Boston) one of the best two teams in the league? Or is he responsible for the 3 consecutive losses that ended that playoff run prematurely? Or the disappointing follow-up 2008 season? Or the epic failure of this season?

Entering this afternoon's game Eric Wedge's career record as the Indians manager is 560-568, meaning he will finish his tenure just a few games under .500. He has managed the 4th most games as an Indians manager (behind Boudreau, Hargrove and Speaker) and has the 5th most victories (add Al Lopez to the previous list). He has coached one playoff team and won one (very memorable and satisfying) playoff series while losing a second (very memorable and painful) series. Just 35 when he was hired, he was and still is quite young, so his managerial days are quite possibly not over. Having come up through the Indians minor league managerial system Wedge was thought to be someone who would work well with the young and developing team that Shapiro & Co. were putting together in the post-Colon trade era.

Players have both succeeded and failed under Wedge. We have seen the development of an original new "core" set of players with guys like Sizemore, Peralta, Sabathia, Lee, Martinez and Hafner. And we have seen the beginning of perhaps a new core of talent with players like Cabrera and Choo. Several notable players have clashed and/or failed to develop - Milton Bradley, Brandon Phillips, Andy Marte. The discussions which have been going on since the collapse of 2005 will no doubt continue into the off-season. What effect has Wedge's parceling out of playing time had on the development of important organizational parts? Has Wedge used pitchers, particularly relievers, correctly? Can we blame Wedge for being out-coached by Francona in the 2007 playoffs? These are all legitimate discussions to have, but do not have much impact on my view of today's firing.

I am happy to see the Indians fire Wedge today and have a vocal history on this site for arguing he should have been fired back in May. My reasons largely reflect issues independent of the overall evaluation of Wedge's strengths and weaknesses or previous successes and failures. I think Wedge should have been fired because the Indians were going in the wrong direction back in May and had no other options to elicit change in the hopes of producing a different on the field result. Doubts about our starting pitching were obvious and well-voiced during spring training, but there was a sense that we had enough options to play mix-and-match with our depth until we found the right set of 5 guys for any given stretch. Injuries erased much of that depth and gave us few options for changing the cast of characters taking the ball every five days. I, like several others, had high hopes for our bullpen this season. The simultaneous blow-up of four of our top five relievers made alternative courses of action difficult. We did end up putting a shuffle of players together (Chulk, Veras, Herges, Aquino et al.)...but the results were not good. Our offense actually was not that bad, but given that, there was little hope of it suddenly performing so well that our deficiencies in pitching could be overcome. So our only path for success was to perform better with the players we had. And actually, to perform dramatically better. The failures were widespread, although focused on pitching, so simply changing out a coach or two did not appear to be a sufficient solution. The only reasonable solution was firing the manager and trying to inspire better performance out of the 25 guys going in and out of the team clubhouse everyday.

The Indians chose to do nothing. Until now. The decision to do nothing appears even more damning in retrospect. We now know, especially following the trades of Lee and Martinez, that the Indians were operating on a competitive and financial edge not just for this season but for 2010 as well. If this season failed, next season went down with it. The front office knew this by July 1st, which means they should have known it on April 1st. Reviving this season was critical for the trajectory of this franchise. Shapiro should have fired Wedge and whatever coaches he wanted to go with him because it was the only option for saving 2010, as well as salvaging this season. On May 14th the Indians were a very disappointing 8 games under .500 (14-22), but only 4.5 games out of the AL Central lead. Three consecutive losses to Tampa put them 11 games under and 7.5 games out of 1st place going into a May 18th, Monday off-day. Defcon 1 alarm bells should have been going off in the corridors of the Indians front office. I am quite certain the Indians have systematic analysis showing that teams that change managers mid-season do not generally do well. Mid-season firings are not the "right" choice. And I am quite certain I don't care about those results. This is one of those areas in which Cleveland really had nothing to lose by making the move and everything to lose by not making the change.

The Indians actually played with a degree of mediocrity (an improvement) over the remainder of May and first half of June, playing 4 games above .500 between May 19th and June 14th. Then came a devastating back-to-back pair of three-game interleague series, at Milwaukee and at Chicago, in which the Indians went 0-6, losing the first 5 games by 2 runs or less, and falling from 6 to 10 games out of first place. The Indians again had an off-day and again should have considered firing Wedge. At that point, June 22nd, I don't actually fault the Indians for keeping Wedge, but this is only because at that point the season was essentially done. The Indians had to win the AL Central to make the playoffs, were 10 games out of 1st with 4 teams ahead of them in the standings, and had a variety of injuries on the roster. Certainly, I would not have objected if the Indians had them fired him, but the time to make that decision was already in the past. Eric Wedge should have been fired on May 18th.

I am happy the Indians have fired Wedge. I don't know whether Wedge is a good coach or not, although I think there are probably a lot of better coaches out there. I am not sure what failures are properly assigned to Wedge. The decision to fire Wedge now is the right one, but it is in itself a failure, although it is a failure not of Wedge, but of Shapiro.

Indians manager Eric Wedge fired

Jay — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:42:55 -0000

The Indians have informed Eric Wedge that he willl not return as manager next season. His entire coaching staff is also being released, although one or more may be re-hired by the next manager. Wedge and the coaches will finish out the season in Boston this weekend.

Wedge has a career record of 560–568 and is the fifth longest-tenured manager in major league baseball. Clint Hurdle, who previously held the fifth slot, was fired earlier this year by the Rockies. The Indians opened the season 14–26 and more recently went through a 3–20 stretch.

Shapiro's comments from today's 1:30 p.m. press conference, courtesy of woodsmeister [followed by my comments]:

Next manager strong voice in determining staff, so staff will not be back. [Pretty standard move.]
Wedge “epitome of team player”, “exemplary leader.” [I don't doubt this, but that doesn't mean he created an environment conducive to winning or got the most out of each player.]
On why – “accountability lies across the organization.” This starts with Shapiro, extends to operations staff and players. “As we examined everything … we felt this was the right time to make a change on Eric … Arrived at decision collectively that this was the right time for a change.” [Of course, we likely won't ever know who really wanted what, among Shapiro, Antonetti, and the Dolans.]
“My reluctance is more related to my emotions, and my underlying respect for Eric.”
“Any time there is change, there is an opportunity, and we have to seize the opportunity.” [Another management fortune cookie.]
“I was hopeful that this wasn’t going to come. I was hopeful that there would be an opportunity to create a more positive environment for him to continue here.” [Coming close to saying this is a PR firing only, but maybe "positive environment" refers to the clubhouse as much as the public perception.]
“From the time we’d made the decision, Eric’s known.” [He clearly knew when Castro posted that last Q&A.]
On why fans Ohio don’t like Wedge — “He’s consistent. This is an entertainment business and maybe he’s not flamboyant enough.” [Maybe. Or maybe it's all the losing. How many managers are actually popular?]
“The goal would be to build a team that never dips too far down, that has opportunities to contend and play in the postseason as regularly as possible. I think the goal does evolve as the game evolves, and as the terrain evolves. I would hope we never go through a prolonged losing period and have consistent windows to contend.” [In a way, this was Wedge's downfall. The 2006 and 2008 clubs posted mediocre records but not out-and-out disasters. This was his first truly bad club.]
On Wedge -“He’s very consistent with the values of Northeast Ohio. He’s a blue collar worker, hard-nosed guy, extremely honest. Extremely consistent. In the end, maybe why, this isn’t entertainment, it’s business. Maybe he wasn’t flamboyant enough, kept his feelings internal. Fans want to see those, on the shirtsleeve, they want to feel the frustration, they want to feel the emotion, and Eric, to protect the players, didn’t often do that.” [Yet he still dimed out Peralta repeatedly.]
“There were tough times, when he and I bumped heads.” [Wouldn't we love to know what those were, other than cutting loose Brandon Phillips.]

And now comments from Wedge:

It was his decision to stick around the last few games. “I’d still want to finish what we started here. It would be the right thing for the players. One thing we’ve always done here is to put the players first.”
“I think it’s how you finish, not how you start.” [Unintentional humor here? Maybe if he thought it was "how you start," we wouldn't have started terribly almost every year of his tenure.]
“I’m the manager of the team. It’s my job to go out and win ballgames. You know, there's not an asterisk after that saying, it's only if you have this, that or the other. I’m a big believer in being accountable for what I do. I preach that to the players, it's the way I live my life.”
On managing a mid-market team – “It’s more challenging but it’s also more rewarding. What we came so close to doing in 07 is pretty special stuff. One thing about the Dolans – they’ve always allowed Mark and me as leaders of this organization to do what we think is best for this team.” [He hints here at an organizational issue, i.e., the manager as somewhat co-equal to the GM.]
Hasn’t given much thought to what’s next. Concerned about “finishing this thing off the right way.”
“As a manager, you have to work off the players you have. That dictates how you manage. It’s my job to work off that and win as many games as possible.”
“I was here in the beginning, I understand really rebuilding, starting from scratch. This is not that situation here in Cleveland. You need to understand that, fans need to understand that. You have a solid organization, a solid minor league system. You have a process that works, here in this market. So they’re going to be fine. You have to work off the market, the economy, what you’re able to do here. You have some young, talented baseball players that are learning every day."
"It's been a long run here, I guess as managers go. I've got a great deal of respect for the city of Cleveland and Tribe fans all over the place, and I'm a big believer in wearing the uniform with pride."

Game 156: Cleveland 9, Baltimore 0

Ryan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:43:53 -0000

More photos » by DAVID RICHARD - AP

David Huff turned in his best outing as a pro, throwing eight shutout innings.

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If this was David Huff's last start, he ended his rookie season on a high note. In fact, I think this start might be the best non-Lee start of the season. Huff pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks and striking out 5. Judging by his last five starts, it seems like he's made adjustments to the league, and although he'll have to compete for a rotation spot next spring, there's a very good chance that he'll remain with the big-league club in 2010.

The Indians made it easy on Huff by scoring six runs in the first inning. Asdrubal Cabrera (who would collect four hits on the day) drove home two on a double, Andy Marte drove another one in with a single, and Kelly Shoppach capped things off with a three-run homer. I still maintain that, even though Lou Marson has done well in his September audition, it would behoove the Indians to keep Shoppach around another season. Let Shoppach and Marson share time early in the season, and when Carlos Santana is ready, then deal Shoppach away.

Matt LaPorta hit his seventh home run in 158 at-bats today, and has brought his batting line up to (going into today) a fairly respectable .272/.312/.456. I think it's a given that he's going to be in the lineup Opening Day, though the question still remains what position he'll be playing.

Next Up: Chicago comes to town. Danks vs. Laffey, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.123	Shin-Soo Choo	-.030
Kelly Shoppach	.122	Jhonny Peralta	-.012
Asdrubal Cabrera	.104	Matt LaPorta	-.005

Game 155: Indians 9, Orioles 8

afh4 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:45:36 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Go get it, Agent M.

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In a turn of events that was unfathomable just a week ago, the Indians have won two in a row. Sowers was bad tonight, leaving the game trailing five to four, with peripherals that indicated no better. The Indians took the lead for the second time (they had been up 4-0 before Sowers' fifth inning implostion) with a four run outburst in the seventh, lost the lead when Kerry Wood was horrible in the ninth, and then finally won the game on a Jhonny Peralta single in the bottom of the ninth.

The Indians were legitimately good offensively tonight, collecting fifteen hits with four doubles and a pair of homeruns from Choo and Marte (Marte!). Andy hit a two run jack in the fourth and then tacked on a sacrifice fly later. Most disheartening was Kerry Wood's performance, comprised of three hits, two runs, a walk and a blown save. Despite Wood's best efforts, the Indians won the game when Valbuena singled, was moved over by Choo and driven home by Peralta. Raffy Perez recorded three strikeouts tonight, for those still keeping track, and Chris Perez also looked decent in his brief, .2 IP appearance. The Indians have now won two in a row for the first time since August 26 and 27.

No matter what the Indians evaluative process says, it seems incomprehensible that Andy Marte won't get a chance to start for the team next season. In a lost year, why would the Indians not give some playing time to a gentleman who has hit a homerun every seventh game he's played this year? That translates to 23 homeruns in a whole season, a total that might lead the 2010 Indians.

via www.fangraphs.com

Game 153: Tigers 6, Indians 5

Ryan — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:37:24 -0000

More photos » by DAVID RICHARD - AP

There were some good things to take away from tonight's eleventh straight loss.

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This was, inexplicably, the best-played game during the current eleven-game losing streak. And though the matchup on paper predicted a blowout loss, the Indians had several opportunities to take control of the game.

Carlos Carrasco looked much more comfortable in his second start against the Tigers, though he's a long ways from a solid major-league starter. He got out of a couple jams early in the game, but couldn't limit the damage in the fourth inning. In that frame, he didn't give up the big hit, but three run-scoring singles and an RBI ground out. He didn't give up an extra-base hit, but instead allowed 6 singles and 3 walks.

The Indians owned Justin Verlander last year, but the lanky right-hander turned a corner in 2009. After the Indians took a 2-0 lead in the third on a Michael Brantley single, they had a great opportunity for an even larger inning with two on and still nobody out. Brantley stole second a couple pitches later to make the opportunity even more favorable. But Verlander, perhaps thinking of who was pitching for the Indians, retired the next three Indians and cruised from there. He threw a ton of pitches to get through seven innings thanks to that third inning, but the Tigers in retrospect needed him to go that long.

Meanwhile, the Indians actually made a game of it, though the two late-inning runs the bullpen allowed pushed the game just out of reach. Still, the Indians brought the winning run to the plate in the ninth inning, and would have had to the winning run on base had Brandon Inge not made a fantastic diving play to end the game.

There were some nice offensive signs. Travis Hafner pulled a ball on the inner half of the plate down the right-field line, something I can't recall him doing in quite a while. Shin-Soo Choo hit a two-run homer off Tigers closer Fernando Rodney. Michael Brantley continued to impress with his bat control; he collected another two hits, and stole a base. And Andy Marte is taking advantage of some unexpected playing time; he singled and doubled in four at-bats.

Next Up: The Indians go for a share of franchise infamy. Hernandez vs. Carmona, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.121	Carlos Carrasco	-.213
Travis Hafner	.108	Jhonny Peralta	-.169
Andy Marte	.080	Jamey Carroll	-.167

Game 152: Tigers 11, Indians 3

Ryan — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:49:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Justin Masterson only lasted four innings.

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If my math is correct, the Indians just have to win two more games to avoid ending the season with 100 losses. Even as bad as they've been playing, they should avoid that, with six upcoming games against teams tanking about as badly as the Indians. But it's almost certain that they'll blow by the 94-loss 2003 team, which means that you have to go back to 1991 to come across an Indians club with a worse record.

Unfortunately, I'd take the 1991 rotation over this one. That team had a 24-year-old Charles Nagy and a 26-year-old Greg Swindell heading it, while this is one, as currently constituted, has Aaron Laffey and a bunch of projects. Justin Masterson, a pitcher who was supposed to contribute right away, hasn't adjusted to full-time starting. Tonight, against a lineup that can to pitched to, he got rocked for six runs in 4+ innings. Yes, two of those runs were unearned because of an Andy Marte throwing error, but I'm just not seeing any improvement in his location or adjustments to past failures. I think he's actually gotten worse since he got here.

The offense got shut down yet again. What else is new. Jhonny Peralta is again in the midst of a exasperating slump, hitting .182/.250/.234 in the month of September.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jamey Carroll	.059	Justin Masterson	-.408
Andy Marte	.021	Luis Valbuena	-.064
Shin-Soo Choo	.017	Lou Marson	-.039