SB Nation - Fausto Carmona

Games 157 and 158: Indians, White Sox Split Doubleheader

Ryan — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:15:34 -0000

Gone, but not yet.

Game 158: White Sox 1, Indians 0

A couple hours before the first game began, GM Mark Shapiro announced that manager Eric Wedge and all members of the major-league coaching staff would not be back for the 2010 season. The move was expected, and hopefully it represents the first step towards a championship team. Wedge handled the firing with class, though you would assume it wasn't a shock to him.

The pitching performances in the doubleheader were promising as well. Fausto Carmona pitched well for the second start in a row, and Masterson was brilliant in the nightcap. These were the last starts of the season for the two pitchers, and they couldn't have ended their seasons on a better note. Carmona was efficient, showing flashes of how he pitched in 2007. He went seven innings, walking just two and striking out 5. In some ways these last two starts make his 2009 season even more maddening, for you saw what he was capable of.

In the first game, the Indians were paced by Matt LaPorta (1-1, 2B, 2 BB) and Travis Hafner (2-3, HR), who hopefully will form a formidable right-left power combination in next year's lineup. LaPorta's streaking towards a league-average OPS as the season is winding down, and even though he's made less than 200 plate appearances in the majors, he's your cleanup hitter next season.

Even though the Indians ended their home schedule with a loss in game two, Justin Masterson's gem of a start was a great takeaway. He struck out 12, walked 2, and pitched a complete game. He allowed only one run, but unfortunately neither Mark Buerhle nor three Chicago relievers allowed a single run. Masterson had struggled down the stretch, which made this start even more of a surprise. In his last start against Detroit, he couldn't make it through five innings, and he hadn't gone seven innings in any start this season. Cleveland's next pitching coach now has an archetype pitching performance to try to emulate next year.

Next Up: The last series of the season. Carrasco vs. Lester, 7:10 PM

Game Graphs and WPA leaders after the jump...

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Fausto Carmona	.242	Jhonny Peralta	-.056
Matt LaPorta	.175	Michael Brantley	-.053
Travis Hafner	.108	Luis Valbuena	-.013

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Justin Masterson	.341	Jamey Carroll	-.151
Luis Valbuena	.037	Matt LaPorta	-.114
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.114

Thinking About My Lack of Thoughts Regarding the Eric Wedge Firing

devil_fingers — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:19:05 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Don't mourn for me (at a baseball game), I'm already gone.

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If you haven't heard by now, the Cleveland Indians announced today that manager Eric Wedge and his coaching staff will not being returning next season. It's been another disappointing season for Cleveland, and there has been speculation about Eric Wedge for a few years, despite General Manger Mark Shapiro's apparently strong commitment to Wedge in past public statements.

Wedge had a .496 winning percentage (as of this time, apparently, he and his staff are going to finish out the season) with Cleveland over the last seven seasons. That's below .500, but there are managers whom we all know have done worse. As the title indicates, I don't have much to say about this. But I thought I'd at get a few fragmentary thoughts down about what I don't have to say.

I guess I hold to the generic sabermetric line that managers don't matter all that much -- 2-3 games a season, at most. I haven't followed Cleveland game-by-game the way that fans of the franchise (Kyle?) would, but it's hard to think that Cleveland gravely disappointing seasons (I personally thought they were the best team in the AL Central at the beginning of 2009, and I wasn't alone in thinking that) the last couple years can be pinned on Wedge. And I don't think that Mark Shapiro, one of the brighter GMs in the game (although it's fair to say his star shines a little less brightly after the past couple of seasons) believes that Wedge was the main problem, either. I don't know anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if PR is the main reason for this move, given Cleveland's supposed cash flow problems this season and public disappointment.

Cleveland had real question marks about their starting pitching, other than the now-departed Cliff Lee. Behind Lee, you had Fausto Carmona (who'd really only been good in 2007) and a bunch of question marks. The bullpen had had problems in the past, but Kerry Wood was supposed to shore up a strong middle relief core of Rafael Betancourt, who actually has had a good season considering both his time in Cleveland and Colorado, and Rafeal Perez, who was excellentin 2007 and 2008 and fell apart this season. Wood, of course, has been terrible.

As for position players... well, Cleveland always has seemed to have had a good core. Grady Sizemore had been one of the best players in the baseball the last few seasons. Victor Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in the game, and his defense is underrated. Johnny Peralta, whatever his defensive deficiencies, has hit well in the past. Shin-Soo Choo was looking to be good... and so on.

I won't list everything here about what went right and wrong. Travis Hafner's contract wasn't a great decision, but it would have been hard to foresee injuries keeping him off the field to this extent (and he hasn't been a complete liability when he's been healthy). Victor Martinez had a bad 2008. Shin-Soo Choo has had a great season this season, but that's about it, as Peralta regressed both offensively and defensively, Asdrubal Cabrera's defense has taken away from his good year at the plate, and so on.

I don't know who's responsible for making these decisions. Maybe it's all bad luck, but if it's anyone's fault, it has to fall on the front office. It's hard to see how this is Wedge's fault. Maybe it's time for him to go -- Mark Shapiro is a lot smarter than me. I don't know much about Wedge -- I don't like or dislike him. Cleveland has been bad enough the last couple seasons that no amount of lineup optimization or bullpen efficiency would have put them into the playoffs. But it has to be more of a "we need to try a new voice here and see if this will mollify angry fans" than anything to do with Wedge's ability to make the roster all perform well at once. If someone can find a manager with that magic power... let me know.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Game 150: Athletics 11, Indians 4

Ryan — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:41:56 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Fausto Carmona only gave up runs in two innings. But what innings they were.

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I suppose the one saving grace of this hideous September is that it will force major changes in the Indians organization. The Indians are now tied for last place in the AL Central, and just one game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in the American League. Now they aren't just losing close games, but being blown out of games. Thanks to an awful starting rotation, a complete deterioration of the offense, and other unquantifiable aspects, the Indians are going to end the season falling at maximum velocity.

Fausto Carmona did pitch very well for a portion of today's start, but when you give up nine runs in the surrounding innings, that stretch is for all intents and purposes meaningless. He did, for once, make the opposing team earn their runs; he walked one, but gave up ten base hits and faced an incredible 29 hitters in his 5.2 innings pitched.

So, what's next for this team? After getting swept by a team playing out the string, a series against a team that has everything to play for. See you on Tuesday, if your stomach is strong enough.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.054	Fausto Carmona	-.333
Trevor Crowe	.006	Wyatt Toregas	-.062
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.049

Fire Everyone! - John Mirabelli and the scouts

TribeJay — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Try to top those 64 K's, Huff!

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This is the fifth installment in a 12-part series.

The Cleveland Indians hired John Mirabelli as Director of Scouting in the fall of 1999. Mirabelli was promoted to Assistant General Manager/ Director of Scouting prior to the 2002 season and signed a contract extension in May 2007 that takes him through 2010. Later that year he took on an "expanded role in the procurement of amateur and professional talent, both in the United States and abroad" while Brad Grant assumed responsibility for overseeing all elements of the amateur draft. The Indians have had many young players succeed during this time, though many have been plucked from other organizations. After the disasters of the previous two years, is it time to fire John Mirabelli and the scouts?

If you're looking for an exhaustive analysis on how the Indians have drafted compared to other teams, or how they've fared with international signings, you'll need to look elsewhere on this site or in the Annual published last spring. Keep in mind the goal of this series - holding people accountable, regardless if it is actually their fault ("and even if it isn't, it's probably time to fire somebody anyway.").

Firing Mirabelli is probably not a novel idea to LGT readers. Some may say he hasn't had successful drafts, and others may say he hasn't drafted "high-ceiling" guys. Or that he hasn't signed an impact player from the Pacific Rim. Or that he speaks French, but not in Russian. In any event, I'm going to focus on a few "fireable offenses."

By and large, difference-making talent originally signed by the Indians does not exist on the current roster.

Admittedly, my mostly uninformed opinion from a year ago was that the Indians amateur drafts have been awful. After getting some perspective from within this site, I've realized that "awful" is an overstatement, and when compared to other teams (particularly in the AL Central), it doesn't look bad at all. Also, the amateur draft is just one way to add players to the organization. And no, we're not going to debate selecting "high-ceiling players" for the 10 billionth time, or even the 11millionth time.

And in Mirabelli's defense, the Indians have only selected in the Top 10 once since 1992. Budget constraints have certainly impacted their ability to select certain players. But in the end, Cleveland's highest single-season slugging percentage of players signed after Mirabelli was hired belongs to Ryan Garko, who slugged .483 in 2007. And of pitchers signed in the Mirabelli era, the highest single-season strikeout total by a Cleveland starter outside of Fausto Carmona belongs to fireballer Jeremy Sowers, with 64 in 2008 (though David Huff is making a charge this year). Screw it, these are fireable offenses!

And the trading for several power arms (C. Perez, Knapp, Masterson, and Hagadone) this year was an effort to stock pitching depth, but it may as well been an admission of their inability to find these arms in other ways. Again, the aforementioned lack of high draft picks and budget constraints have hampered the Indians in this pursuit, but remember, we're looking for accountability here.

Signing David Dellucci

Sure, scouts didn't have the final say on this signing. They may have had little, or even no input at all. But in the spirit of Fire Everyone!, we're going to hold the scouting department accountable for not talking Mark Shapiro out of this one. Outside of one good month, one great quote, and a good beard, there's not much else to take from this signing. Sure, he tore his hamstring from the bone in 2007, but he wasn't doing anything before then either. Was this a critical error that set the franchise back? No. But it was a swing and a miss.

Being unable to acquire talented minor-leaguers from other organizations

OK, just making sure you're paying attention. If we're going to blame them for the Dellucci signing, we'll have to give them credit for this, to the extent he and his scouts were involved. It's not that it's unimportant. However, I suppose any number of us could have looked over the Dodgers' system and asked, "What about that Santana guy?"

Signing Jose Ozoria Wally Bryan

Sure, it isn't the first time this has happened to a major league club. The Indians are not alone. It also may be that the Indians did everything possible to avoid this. However, in Andrew's piece on firing Larry Dolan, much of the discussion in the comments section centered on small market teams needing to become unique or unconventional in their methods. I'll submit that in signing players who are actually older than they say they are, the Indians should strive to be unconventional and make sure this doesn't happen.

It's not an exorbitant amount, but if you're going to spend $575,000 on signing an international free agent, you better make sure his ceiling is Asdrubal Cabrera and not Niuman Romero. Perhaps we'll see ~~young~~ Mr. Bryan get a cup of coffee at first base in September 2014, thereby ending Andy Marte's consecutive game streak at 788.

That wraps it up. What about Brad Grant, you say? Well, let's give him a pass. We'll keep around anyone who uses their first pick on a player named Lonnie Chisenhall, especially if that player hits .276/.346/.492 at the age of 20 in High-A in their first full season.

Should Mirabelli be fired? Did the promotion of Brad Grant mean that Mirabelli was already "fired?" Is Mirabelli now in a role that better suits him? Or is saying "It hasn't been as bad as you think" good enough when you summarize the results of someone's performance in a significant role?

Game 145: Twins 5, Indians 4

Ryan — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 04:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Joe Mauer is having a season that Johnny Bench would be proud of.

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Throughout the season, I've been trying to look for any sign that Fausto Carmona is going to become a dominating pitcher again, or at least to transition to decent one. He's been healthy for the entire season, took a lengthy furlough in Arizona, and has had a very wide berth due to the non competitiveness of the team. Probably the only left to try is a new pitching coach, and that rarely works, so I've just about given up on him. The numbers this season tell a very stark and depressing story: 101.1 innings pitched, 63 strikeouts, 63 walks, 118 hits, 80 runs, which translates to a 6.48 ERA and a WHIP of 1.786, both of which are the highest in the American League for a pitcher with that amount of innings pitched. In other words, he's been the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

Tonight Carmona allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings, and it could have been much worse, since he allowed 12 base runners in his short start. He struggled to get through the first, and although he worked out of the inning allowing just a run, he'd already thrown more than 25 pitches. And this was a middle-of-the-road offense missing its second-best hitter.

The good news from the game was that Matt LaPorta had a good night. Matt went 2-for-4, including a ninth inning home run off Joe Nathan. LaPorta's really cooled off since his late August surge, and most likely due to teams starting to game plan against him. Now it's his turn to make adjustments against AL pitching, and hopefully tonight's at-bats are the start of that.

Finally, a word about Joe Mauer's season: wow.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Blackburn, 1:10 PM. Also, the last game the Indians will play in the Metrodome.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jamey Carroll	.114	Fausto Carmona	-.369
Travis Hafner	.091	Michael Brantley	-.201
Jose Veras	.068	Andy Marte	-.103

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Game 140: Rangers 10, Indians 0

afh4 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:09:44 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Will Fausto ever get fixed?

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It took the Texas Rangers less than 24 hours to sweep the Indians and make much of the pitching "progress" that the Tribe had been clinging to start to look more than a bit shaky. Last night, we had to watch Aaron Laffey and Carlos Carrasco get shelled, as well as witness Jess Todd's continued unraveling and then, finally and most despicably, Chris Perez didn't even look inhuman. Today, the pain kept coming as Fausto Carmona lasted only 0.2 IP and surrendered 5 ER. In the last two days the Indians have watched key parts in their 2010 rotation turn in outings that match the shortest starts of their careers, with Carmona's 0.2 standing alone in his illustrious career and Laffey's 3.1 IP performance matching his explosion in Detroit this year.

There were no bright spots in today's game, as the Indians managed only six hits and only Luis V. managed extra bases, with his double in the 8th. To add insult to injury, Rafael Perez got demolished again, going only 0.1 IP and allowing 5 runs to cross the plate, 3 earned. Perez' ERA has now ballooned to 7.94 and I wonder if there's still a place for him in the Cleveland organization this winter.

No matter, though, the Indians losing is old hat. The real problem today was the lineup and that's coming from somebody who normally cares very little about the lineup. However, when Eric Wedge filled in Niuman Romero as the first basemen today he finally crossed the line. I am literally seething about this:

He cannot possibly believe that Romero, a player who managed a .626 OPS in Columbus this year and who has hit righties even worse than he has hit lefties this year, gave the Indians a better chance to win today than did either Andy Marte, who has always pounded righties despite his handedness, or Jamey Carroll, who's having a near career year at the plate.
He undermined the front office and developmental staff who just yesterday had Ross Atkins explaining Jordan Brown's non-callup by saying: "With Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta and four catchers on the roster, there just weren’t plate appearances for Jordan. That is the most important aspect of the decision." Hey, Ross! What do you know, Eric found four at-bats that were just lying around! There is literally no argument, zero, that the Indians should have Romero taking at-bats in Cleveland instead of Brown. There is plenty of argument, being made cogently elsewhere on the site, that at-bats should be taken by LaPorta, Marte, Toregas, Shoppach, Gimenez or Marson before they are taken by Brown. But there is no justification, none, for giving the at-bats that ought to be going to LaPorta, Marte, Toregas, Shoppach, Gimenez or Marson to Romero. Wedge has made Atkins look like a fool and, more importantly, he's made him look like a liar to Brown.

Wedge is a rogue agent on this one: this cannot possibly be the front office's plan and, frankly, I think it represents the most obvious act of insubordination out of Wedge that I've ever seen. As a manager, Eric has always wielded the lineup card as a weapon, using it to punish players and seemingly to send messages to the front office about what will and will not fly on his watch (specifically: Marte will not fly). This, though, this is unbelievable. If Shapiro is not excoriating Wedge right now, I'm disappointed.

Wedge ought to have already been fired for trotting Romero out there. Giving Marte major league at-bats is critical at this point as the Indians need to gather as much information as possible before the offseason. The decision on Marte is going to reverberate to a decision on Peralta and also to decisions on guys like Brown. Wedge stupidly wasting a game watching Romero isn't just stupid, it's hurting the team.

The only upside here is that the Rangers are only 1.5 back of Boston now.

Wedge does things that have no conceivable explanation, large and small.

-Jay

Game 133: Tigers 4, Indians 3 (10 innings)

afh4 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:35:22 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Carmona was no good in the 7th.

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The Detroit Tigers completed the sweep today by prevailing in the tenth inning of a pitchers' duel. Nate Robertson and Fausto Carmona, neither candidates for the all-star rotation, both turned in relatively impressive performances: Robertson went 6 scoreless while Fausto completed 6.1 with 3 ER. Carmona had an odd day: he was dominant at points, retiring the Tigers with ease after giving up a leadoff homerun to Curtis Granderson. However, his control failed him in the seventh as he walked Adam Everett and Granderson after getting the first out. Wedge decided to leave Carmona to clean up his own mess and he didn't, surrendering a triple to Clete Thomas.

Fausto's final line looks pretty lousy, mostly because of the 5 BB's. Still, you've got to at least acknowledge that three of those walks were to the aforementioned Adam Everett, a player OPSing .626. It's unclear why Carmona is so afraid of Everett. Beyond that, we saw more of a hybrid Old/New Fausto, with a 3:2 GO:FO ratio but also an effective four seam fastball. Despite his struggles today, he's looking more like a pitcher that could stick in a rotation than one that could not.

Chris Perez and Tony Sipp were outstanding again, offering up 2.2 innings of scoreless baseball, fanning five and generally scaring the crap out of everybody. Perez, especially, can't be spoken of highly enough: he is consistently throwing his fastball at the knees on either side of the plate and his breaking stuff has been swing and miss for weeks now. In short, Chris Perez looks like what many expected of Kerry Wood.

The game was probably over from the time Wedge chose Rafael Perez to start the 10th but they went ahead and played it for fun anyways. Raffy went 2B, IBB, BB, SF and the game was over. After returning from the minors, Perez turned in a pretty decent August results-wise, with a 3.65 ERA. Watching him, however, he still doesn't look like Fist of Steel and his peripherals bear this out, especially his now 14 hits surrendered in 13.2 IP with only 6 K's in the same timeframe. He's also got about 4 absolute trainwrecks in 13 appearances.

The Indians' only runs came in the eighth with Shoppach, Caroll, Cabrera and Choo contributing the hits. Choo's double into deep right plated two runs and tied the game until Placido Polanca's sacrifice fly in the 10th untied it.

Game 128: Orioles 13, Indians 4

Ryan — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 03:42:36 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

The tarp should have stayed on.

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The Indians had a couple chances to stay in the ballgame for at least a couple innings longer, but the game would eventually get put completely out of reach in the late innings.

Fausto Carmona brought the same gameplan to the mound tonight as he had used in his last outing, but this time his location wasn't on. Tonight the four-seam fastballs weren't on the corners, but in the middle of the plate, and he often wasn't able to use his sinker or changeup because he was behind in the count. He couldn't make it through the fifth, and this time the bullpen couldn't hold the Orioles down long enough for the Indians to mount a comeback.

The offense missed some golden opportunities, but there were some bright spots. Matt LaPorta went deep again; he was one of four Indians with two hits. Andy Marte got on base twice, and looks like he's gotten a lot more comfortable with consistent playing time.

Next Up: Sowers vs. Tillman, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Asdrubal Cabrera	.120	Fausto Carmona	-.365
Andy Marte	.041	Luis Valbuena	-.114
Travis Hafner	.036	Wyatt Toregas	-.104