SB Nation - Francisco Liriano

Starting Pitchers: Damaged Goods Available

Jesse — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players. Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll. How much? Probably not too much. But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years. Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson? Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled? Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year. An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009. For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys. Read all about them after the break.

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-9	27	26	0	0	0	0	141.0	122	74	64	23	67	171	4.09	1.34

26 starts in 2009 and 25 starts in 2008--not bad. Then there were the 13 starts in '06 and '07 combined, with 19 starts made in '05. In fact, in Harden's six-plus star-crossed seasons in the majors he has had exactly one full season: 2004.

A couple of back injuries, a strained left oblique and a rap sheet full of right-arm issues, Harden's inability to keep himself on the mound isn't exactly a secret. Which is why he's even on this list. Anyone who can strike out more than a man per inning while allowing less than a hit per inning, with that kind of fastball and that kind of stuff, is a guy who's makeup has "Ace" dripping out of every pore.

This past season Harden missed 19 games in May and June due to issues with his back, before coming back and eventually being shut down at the end of September because of his pitching arm. Again.

Obviously he's a risk, but that's why I wanted to talk about these guys. The oblique strains don't bother me--it's the problems (plural) that Harden has had with his rotator cuff and his UCL. His mechanics aren't exactly smooth and without constant training to strengthen and stabalize his cuff I'm worried he could have to resort to Tommy John surgery at any time. But I'm not a doctor.

Harden is likely to garner a lot of guarded interest this off-season, and in spite of his injuries and high pitch count innings could still receive multi-year offers that would be worth double-digit millions easy. Naturally I'm not opposed to the Twins chasing him and signing him to a deal as long as it's done right. While the Twins may not be able to guarantee more money than most of the other clubs out there, offering him a low base with a number of achieveable incentives for games started and innings pitched could make a deal at least tempting.

My offer: Two years with team option for year a third. 2010: $4 million base ($500K for 12, 17, 22, 27 and 32 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175, 200 innings pitched; $9 million possible; $1 million buyout option if less than 100 innings pitched). 2011: $6 million base, same incentives. 2012: $10 million base, same incentives, $1 million buyout.

Ben Sheets

#15 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1978

Sheets didn't pitch at all in 2009, and at two years older than Harden would be 32 in 2010. His rap sheet of injuries is even more varied than the Cubs ace, with long stretches of time missed for back injuries, finger injuries and, of course, right arm injuries. This last time around he's had flexor tendon surgery and, if you listen to his agent, would be ready for spring training.

He doesn't strike out quite as many guys as Harden but he still allows less than a hit per inning, has better control and is far more efficient with his pitches. Prior to this last surgery anyway. Like Harden his fastball is mid to upper-90's, and his breaking balls can break your knees. Prior to this last surgery anyway.

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings in 2008 before missing all of '09, but from '05 to '07 he wasn't pitching full years either. From the ages of 23 to 25 though, which may be where some of these problems began for a guy who was at the time a younger pitcher, Sheets made 102 starts and threw more than 670 innings. You could argue he was over-worked, although by the time a guy hits his mid-20's he should be able to handle a full load. I tend to lean away from the over-worked arguement.

Where I see Harden landing with a more high-profile team who is willing to take a chance on him and spend a little more ching, Sheets is the option who already looks like he'll appeal to everybody. Second-tier teams (like the Twins) who still have a little wiggle room might run straight for the former Brewer to avoid getting drawn into a process with Harden.

My offer: One year with a team option for a second. 2010: $3 million base ($500 K for 11, 22 and 33 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings; $7 million possible). 2011: $5 million base, same incentives, $500K buyout.

Erik Bedard

#45 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 06, 1979

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Erik Bedard	5-3	15	15	0	0	0	0	83.0	65	29	26	8	34	90	2.82	1.19

Bedard had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder back in August, repairing what had been a spot of general disrepair. A torn labrum was the main issue, but the area apparently needed a good clearing. Apparently he'll be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's the second time in as many years where he made just 15 starts.

His stuff, just like the stuff of Harden and Sheets, qualifies him as an ace. He can be a dominant strikeout pitcher at times, although a little streaky even when healthy and not as efficient with his pitches as Sheets. What had been very low fly-ball numbers increased slightly in Seattle, but his plus fastball and plus breaking ball continued to be his best pitches and were seemingly unaffected.

The biggest issues with the former Mariner and Oriole enigma are his consistency and, just like the other two guys on this list, his inability to stay healthy for a whole season. His control tends to stray at times as well.

My offer: Identical to Sheets' offer.

Conclusions

Clearly there are more guys on the market than these three who could qualify as damaged goods. Mark Prior is attempting a comeback, Bartolo Colon is still floating (or sinking) around out there somewhere and even a guy like Noah Lowry has some appeal. But these three guys are the creme of the crop, because they all have the ability to be that elusive Ace pitcher.

Is there a safer option between the three? Which guy would you prefer, if any?

Poll

Which of these three pitchers do you prefer?

Rich Harden

364 votes

Ben Sheets

218 votes

Erik Bedard

161 votes

None of the above

89 votes

832 votes | Poll has closed

Searching for a Skipper, Part Two

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:35:07 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

5 months ago: In this Aug. 12, 2008 file photo, Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta waits as umpires talk with each other during a baseball game with the New York Mets in Washington. Acta is out as manager of the Washington Nationals. Acting general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed the firing Monday morning, June 13, 2009, in an e-mail to The Associated Press. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez, File)

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When the Astros confirmed that Manny Acta would be the first candidate brought in for an interview, it began what could be a very open managerial search. This is good for us in that we can get an in-depth look at each potential skipper. So, let's continue this with a look at former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta.

Acta was signed as a 17-year old first baseman out of the Dominican Republic by the Astros in 1986. He advanced as high as Double-A in both 1989 and 1990, playing 77 games there and batting .194/.194/.258. Acta played 370 games in the minors and had a career line of .241/.241/.299, including his final season at Low A Burlington, where Acta was a player-coach at age 22. Two years later, in 1993, Acta got his first managerial job with Houston's short season New York-Penn League team, the Auburn Astros. Over the next eight seasons, Acta put together a record of 419-432 with four winning seasons, including two straight at his highest stop, High A Kissimmee in 1999 and 2000. Acta also won a Florida State League title in 1999, coaching players like Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, Keith Ginter and Wayne Franklin. In 2000, Acta coached Roy Oswalt, Tim Redding and Jeriome Robertson.

Acta started coaching in the winter leagues in 1999 as well, starting out in Caracas in the Venezuela Winter League before moving to Licey of the Dominican Winter League in 2002. Acta spent 2001 as a coach on the New Orleans staff, when it was still the Triple-A affiliate of the Astros. Players on that 200 team? Astros Pacific Rim scouting director Glen Barker and Lance Berkman, along with former Astros Scott Elarton, Roger Cedeno, Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink.

Acta was just 33 years old when he was hired as the Washington Nationals new third base coach under manager Frank Robinson in 2002. Acta steadily moved up in the eyes of the Nationals until he was given the mangerial job after Robinson was fired following the 2006 season. Acta also managed the 2006 Dominican Republic entry into the World Baseball Classic, coaching Astros free agent Miguel Tejada and Angels free agent-to-be Vladimir Guerrero as well as former Astros farmhand Francisco Liriano.

So, that brings us to his stint as Washington's manager. In 2007, Acta saw the team to a 73-89 record but revived the career of Dmitri Young. Da Meat Hook even was selected for the All-Star game that July. The Nationals were not great that season, but that was partly because the team had a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.48. Of course, his starters ERA was 5.11, which makes it hard to win any games. Acta used his bullpen for 590 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.81, which we will revisit later on. The other telling stat about his pitching staff is in the 73 wins, the team's ERA was 2.91 while in the 89 losses, it was 9.02. Big difference, huh?

In 2008, the team's ERA jumped up to 4.66 but the starter's ERA was still too high at 4.97. His bullpen threw less innings at 553 1/3, but had a slightly higher ERA at 4.18. The team itself lost 102 games and had just 28 saves in 34 save situations. Offensively, Acta got surprisingly good seasons out of shortstop Christian Guzman, second basmean Ronnie Belliard and outfielder Elijah Dukes. Young had another good season, with an OPS of .794, but Acta was hurt by the roster machinations of GM Jim Bowden.

All those roster moves came to a head in 2009, when Acta and outfielder Lastings Milledge had a very public feud. Milledge was sent down to the minors after playing just seven games. Reportedly, the reason was Acta didn't like how Milledge behaved in meetings and that he had a generally surly attitude. This did not endear Acta to management, and he was let go halfway through the season.

The Nationals never had much talent, but Acta did show a knack for getting good performances out of other team's castoffs. He also didn't overuse a bullpen, and got similar results to the Astros this season (534 1/3 IP, 4.13 ERA). I'm not sure whether he would affect the staff positively or negatively, but he's definitely familiar with some of the pitchers and knows how to not go all Joe Torre on his relievers.

The Milledge incident is also interesting, because it suggests Acta is willing to call people out and hold his players accountable. Of course, it also reminds me a little of how Cooper acted with this team, and we know how that ended. So, I'm sure this incident will be discussed in more depth during the interview with Wade and Co.

I brought up all the players he's coached or is otherwise familiar with to illustrate how the Astros might accept him or how he might handle the current roster. If Berkman and Oswalt are both considered the 'Faces of the Franchise', and they both turned on Coop, it's important to get them on board with the hire. Will their familiarity with Acta help? If Acta can get those two to support his style or his accountability methods, it would go a long way to setting up a successful culture on the team.

One interesting quote from this 2007 interview with Acta was regarding his influence on the organization as a whole:

I’m kept in the loop on everything that’s going on, and I have a say in how we want things done down there. I take a lot of pride in having continuity throughout the organization, all the way from rookie ball to the big leagues.

This is very interesting, since it's not a job the Astros have asked from their big league skipper in quite a while. Sure, the coaches will make a call on when to bring guys up or who makes the roster in spring training, but setting a tone in the minor leagues? Continuity at all levels? That's something the Astros have lacked since Hunsicker left in 2004. Now it seems like Bobby Heck and Ed Wade both set the tone for player development. Where would Acta fit into this scheme?

Another interesting quote from the same interview about his bunting strategy:

Bunting is pretty outdated. Everybody scores so many runs nowadays, it doesn’t make sense to play for one run unless it’s late in the game and it’s close. I hardly ever bunt early in a game, unless it’s with a pitcher. A big inning can win you a game. One run in the third inning can’t, unless you have Pedro pitching.

And of course, his pick for the best pitcher in baseball:

Roy Oswalt. He’s just tough as nails. He comes at you like nobody else. That’s a tough place to pitch, and he’s been very consistent.

Acta is also very interested in using sabermetrics to make better decisions, which is very interesting to the people around this blog, we heady baseball fans. I'm not sure whether this is a good or a bad thing, but it may help get all those bad OBP players out of the every day roster. Nothing drives me crazier than all the guys with OBP under .340. But that strays from the point. Acta is a young guy, who's failed in his first job and is looking for some redemption. Sounds a lot like Bill Belichick after the Cleveland fiasco but before New England. Does that make him the best candidate? No, because he still has done nothing to be successful at the big league level. He does make for an interesting candidate, though.

Twins Lose 2-0 Lead, Allow 7 Unanswered Runs for Game 1 Loss

Jesse — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 08:22:36 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"See, Derek? This is where C.C. likes to be touched, nice and gentle right here." (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Twins 2, Yankees 7

It started off pretty well. Only Derek Jeter's single to lead off the bottom of the first for the Yankees meant the Bombers had a base runner in the first two innings, as Brian Duensing mixed in all of his pitches early to keep New York off-balance. Indeed, it looked like familiar foe C.C. Sabathia might be the pitcher to struggle in this one, at least early on.

Nick Punto singled after six pitches to lead off the third, with Sabathia feeding him nothing but fastballs low and over the plate before Denard Span forced the Twins ro rally with two outs by grounding into a double play. It did show that, at that time, Sabathia wasn't really comfortable. Orlando Cabrera deliverd on a seven-pitch single, and Joe Mauer took Sabathia's I'm-trying-to-walk-you-without-intentionally-walking-you approach and turned it into a double. Michael Cuddyer finally took pity on C.C. and pushed a line drive into right for a single on the first pitch he saw, scoring Cabrera and giving the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Minnesota took a 2-0 lead on a passed ball, when Jorge Posada inexplicably couldn't catch a Sabathia fastball. Jason Kubel backed away quickly and Mauer did score, but Kubel, for whatever reason, never gave Mauer any signal as to what he should do. Joe was momentarily trapped--he took off as soon as the ball got away and then paused, waiting for Kubel to either wave him in or put up the stop sign, but it never came. Finally Joe caught sight of the ball himself and slid around the tag to give the Twins a 2-0 lead.

Of course it all went downhill from there.

Derek Jeter's two-run homer in the bottom half of the inning knotted the score. Nick Swicher's double scored Robinson Cano in the fourth. In the fifth, Duensing couldn't stem the tide, bouncing back to get two outs after walking Derek Jeter but then succumbing to the biggest Yankee outburth of the evening. Alex Rodriguez singled to extend New York's lead to 4-2, and that was the end of Brian's night.

Enter: Francisco Liriano.

Exit: Liriano's 93-mph fastball. 6-2, Yankees.

A-Rod would single in Jeter in the seventh to add one more, but it would hardly seem to matter. After the sixth the Twins had their opportunities and let them slide away. Span and Cabrera couldn't come through in the seventh with one out and runners on second and third; Mauer's leadoff single in the eighth was wasted; Cabrera stranded Punto and Span on third and second respectively to end the game.

Once again it was Minnesota's failure to capitalize with runners in scoring position that forced this game to turn out the way it did. The face of this one could have been much different; not that the Twins would have won, but they would have at least had a chance in the late innings with a closer score. It's hard to keep the Yankees from scoring less than five runs; they scored an astounding 915 times in the regular season. But if the offense isn't going to take advantage of the base runners they either earn or are gifted, then we're in even more trouble.

This one rests as much with the pitching as it does with the offense. It was an incomplete game on all sides of the ball, and while we could let Tuesday night's contest shoulder the blame for fatigue and let-down, but there's really no excuse now. And even if it were true, it doesn't much matter at the end of the day. The dreaded Yankees hold a one game lead in the 2009 ALDS.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (2-for-4, 2B, R, -.023 WPA)
#2: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-4, RBI, .034 WPA)
#1: Nick Punto (2-for-3, BB, .037 WPA)

Tears for You
Brian Duensing (4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 K 1 BB, -.227 WPA)
Francisco Liriano (2.0 IP, 1 R but a 2-run HR, 1 K, 1 BB, -.111 WPA)
Kubel-Young-Harris-Tolbert (1-for-15)

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Twins Blow Opportunities, Can't Close Deficit To One

Jesse — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:09:13 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

I found this in my glove, I'm not sure what it does.

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Twins 1, Royals 4

Today's game is just what the title suggests--a lack of execution at opportune times. Or inopportune times, I think they were the same today. With Zack Greinke on the mound any and all teams need to take advantage of all chances they can get. That didn't happen.

Francisco Liriano had a terrible day. A 20-pitch first inning didn't net a run for the Royals, but it set the tone. The second inning saw Lizzy give up a pair of extra-base hits, a passed ball and a trio of walks, although only one of the free passes cost Minnesota. Yunieksy Betancourt got around on a 95-mph fastball for a three-run homer about halfway through the frame, and although it was all Kansas City would get it cost Liriano dearly. 25 pitches in the inning is all it took to chase him from the game with runners on the corners and two away. Jeff Manship applied pressure to the wound and momentarily stopped the bleeding.

Ultimately Liriano just couldn't consistently locate...well, anything. He tried taking something off his fastball, that didn't work. He reared back and got everything into the fastball, and if it actually hit the strikezone it probably got smacked. The changeup was useless, and without the fastball or the changeup the slider was useless, too. And once Liriano started to fly off the rails, all borderline pitches went in favor of the Royals...and rightfully so.

Still, the game was never out of hand. Orlando Cabrera doubled in the first, but was stranded. Jose Morales grounded into a double play to kill a possible rally in the second. With the bases loaded in the third Greinke got through Cabrera, then struck out Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel to escape unscathed. With two men on and nobody out in the sixth, the Royals Ace fought back to get three consecutive outs, allowing just one run. Morales and Matt Tolbert reached to lead off the seventh before Greinke sat down three in a row.

Crucial chances, all wasted. That's what great pitchers can do to a hot team, and that's what Greinke did to the Twins. He made us his bitches.

Kubel hit into Minnesota's second double play in the eighth, which was painful considering the single and hit-by-pitch that followed, which you know by now netted the Twins another zero in the frame. Denard Span and Cabrera hit back-to-back two out singles in the ninth, but Joakim Soria completed his two inning save by inducing Mauer to ground out to first base.

The Twins tried. They did. Their tide was simply stemmed at every opportunity. Cabrera stranded five runners. Mauer stranded six and Kubel stranded seven. It's not just about what you do, it's also about when you do it. Orlando and Joe combined for five hits today, but neither tallied a run batted in.

On the plus side the White Sox knocked off the Tigers to, once again, keep the deficit at two games. Tomorrow's opening tilt for the (as of yet) more serious series of the season takes on a far more intense nature as a result. Winning three of four would mean a tie for the division title with just three games to decide the crown. A series tie would reduce Minnesota's title hopes to a prayer, while anything less would guarantee elimination.

No stars and no duds tonight. It's time to focus on the Tigers.

Thanks once again to fischean for supplying us with an overflow thread. Even the moderators can't make every game, so kudos for stepping up! If one of the moderators aren't around anyone should feel free to step in and take it upon themselves to provide a thread where things don't slow down.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Outslug White Sox

cmathewson — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:51:39 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, right, is greeted outside the dugout by Michael Cuddyer after Kubel's home run off Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Octavio Dotel during the eighth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Orlando Cabrera, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel led a powerful attack to lift the Twins past the White Sox 8-6 in a see-saw game on Tuesday night at US Cellular Field in Chicago.

The Twins scored three runs off John Danks in the first inning. After a rare Carlos Gomez walk, Orlando Cabrera hit a two-run homer to left. Hits by Kubel and Cuddyer set up a Delmon Young sac fly to give the Twins a 3-0 lead.

Jeff Manship started for the Twins and lasted only 2 2/3 innings before giving up the lead. After giving up a single run in the first, he really started to struggle in the third. Manship gave up homers to Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham with a Scott Podsednik single sandwiched in between for a 4-3 Sox lead. Batting practice continued with AJ Pierzinski and Paul Konerko hitting hard singles to prompt Ron Gardenhire to make the pitching change to Francisco Liriano. Liriano promptly induced a double play to get the boys back into the dugout and hitting.

Joe Mauer tied the game on a two-out double in the fourth. Michael Cuddyer and Matt Tolbert (!) homered off Danks in the sixth, and the Twins led the rest of the way. Jason Kubel added an insurance run on a homer in the eighth.

The short start forced the Twins to use most of its bullpen. Jesse Crain (7-4) got the win with an inning and a third of spotless pitching. Jose Mijares (25) and Matt Guerrier (31) each got holds despite making it interesting in their innings. And Joe Nathan worked a rare 1-2-3 ninth for his 43rd save in 48 chances.

The win helped the Twins keep pace with the Tigers, who beat the hapless Indians 3-1. The Twins remain 2.5 games back while the White Sox are now 8 back with 11 games to play.

Studs:

4. Jesse Crain: On a night like this, it's nice to see a guy stifle the other guys' bats. He came in in the fifth with runners on second and third and two outs and got out of the inning. He then pitched a clean sixth to bridge the gap to the set-up crew.

3. Michael Cuddyer: Another three-hit night with a double and a homer.

2. Jason Kubel: Two more hits, both for extra bases.

1. Orlando Cabrera: Not only did get the Twins going with his home, his two-out walk helped the Twins tie the game again. And he made several very nice plays in the field. It's safe to say whatever was ailing his arm is gone.

Duds:

Jeff Manship: This has to be his last shot this season to start. The question is, who starts next time around the rotation? Liriano?

John Danks: Giving up seven earned runs to this line-up without two if its best hitters is not good.

Twins Foiled By...Nate Robertson?

Jesse — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:13:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Has anyone told these guys they should let the girls catch the bouquet?

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Twins 2, Tigers 6

It looked good, briefly. A Jason Kubel ground out in the first plated Orlando Cabrera for a 1-0 lead, and after the Tigers tied it up in the top of the fourth Minnesota came back in the bottom half to answer. Delmon Young's double was the alpha, Nick Punto's clutch two-out hit was the omega, and the Twins re-took the lead at 2-1.

But that was as good as it would get.

It wasn't a good night for Scott Baker. He struggled early to find his rhythym, giving us a hint during his very first plate appearance when he had trouble putting Curtis Granderson away. Seven pitches later Granderson would strike out, but it would be a promise of things to come. By the time the fifth inning rolled around Baker had been staked to a 2-1 lead. I'm still cringing at what happened.

In reality, the inning wasn't as horrible as I remember it being. At the time it was total agony. A seven-pitch walk to Gerald Laird (yes, Gerald friggin Laird, and that I still maintain that changeup was a STRIKE), Ramo Santiago picking up a single, Granderson grounding out but still advancing both runners. Placido Polanco scoring them both on a single to give the Tigers their first and final lead of the game. Marcus Thames adding another single, Miguel Cabrera flying out (that's two if he could just get one more!!!) and Magglio Ordonez picking up yet another single (NO!) to complete the Tigers' three-run inning. Baker was lifted with two away in the fifth, having faced seven batters and given up four singles, a walk and three runs.

Ron Mahay finished the inning.

Francisco Liriano picked up the final out in the sixth, managed a perfect seventh (with a pair of strikeouts no less), and then paid for his successes in the eighth. He'd done well for four outs, but to be fair it wasn't like he knew where his pitches were going. Liriano consistently missed his spots, but as we've come to know, Liriano can also be at his best when he's effectively wild. Which is a great way of saying "thanks, hitters, for swinging at crap", although at the same time his slider is still pretty tough.

So when Liriano surprised everyone by throwing two consecutive pitches low in the strike zone to Ryan Rayburn, it came as some surprise. Rayburn's solo home run, not so much of a surprise. Cisco walked Brandon Inge, who would later score off a sacrifice fly with Jon Rauch on the hill. Liriano clearly still has some work to do mentally. All the talent in the world, and I'm not going to complain too much about a guy with his stuff being "effectively wild", but there has to be some sort of consistency because right now there's none.

The Twins don't pick up the sweep, and it's a shame, but they still come away with a series win which puts them one very meaningful game closer to first place than they were when this whole stress-filled weekend started. A week from tomorrow we get to be in Detroit for a four-game tilt which, hopefully, still means something. Which will depend on how things play out over the next week.

Minnesota gets a three-game stand in Chicago with the struggling White Sox before getting a day off, and then taking on the Royals for three next weekend. While the Twins are in Kansas City, the Sox will be hosting the Tigers. Detroit, meanwhile, gets Monday off before travelling to Cleveland for three. Both the Twins and Tigers are on the road, both play the Sox. This will be a very telling week.

It's been a great weekend, and I'll see you all tomorrow

Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Glen Perkins' Grievance, September Callups, Garrett Jones

Jesse — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:18:59 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

5 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Garrett Jones connects for a solo home run off of Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels in the first inning of a baseball game in Philadelphia, Saturday, July 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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A few tidbits as we head into day two of a three-day weekend...

In spite of the arm injury, which granted wasn't his fault, and in spite of his curious timing of medical requests, Glen Perkins (according to "people familiar with the situation") is actually considering filing a grievance with the players' union. On pace to qualify as a Super 2 in service time, if he's shut down for the rest of the season he'll have to wait for arbitration after 2010 instead of this season. It's the difference of a couple million dollars for next year, but provided he stayed healthy he'd be on track to cash in for a major payday in free agency that much sooner as well. Maybe if Glen were a bit more straight-forward in regards to how his arm feels, and maybe if he didn't request second opinions at inopportune and questionable times, then it's likely this wouldn't be an issue right now. Or at least there wouldn't be as much tension between between him and the Twins.
Another callup is on his way: Justin Huber should be ready to play by Tuesday when the Twins head to Canada to take on the Blue Jays. We'll meet him later, but here are the essentials: he's 27 (in his age-26 season) hitting .271/.350/.483 in 435 at-bats for the Red Wings this season, with 22 homers, 22 doubles, 84 strikeouts and 48 walks.
Francisco Liriano could return to the Twins by Thursday if his simulated game goes well, and he'll be utilized out of the bullpen. I'm interested to see how he responds in this role, a role he hasn't played since a pair of relief appearances for the Twins in late 2005. If he succeeds, does it change how the Twins see him contributing the team going forward, or is it irrelevant and we'll see him back in the rotation in 2010 no matter what happens?
Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has a nice piece on former Twins and AAAA-hitter Garrett Jones. In 56 games for the Pirates, Jones is hitting .297/.364/.616 with 18 home runs and 14 doubles, 52 strikeouts and 23 walks. All that in just 242 plate appearances. His walk rates have gone from pedestrian to good, a career-best 10.1%. His isolated power is coming in at .316, which is outstanding for anybody. Can he keep it up? It doesn't seem likely, but it's good to see him get a shot to play everyday. Maybe he can make something of himself with the Pirates that he wasn't able to do with the Twins.

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Jesse — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:20:36 -0000

Another weekend come and gone, and another series victory for the Twins. Let's hit some weekend highlights.

The Twins picked up Ron Mahay.
The Twins picked up Jon Rauch.
Joe Crede has finally hit the disabled list.
Yohan Pino was shipped to Cleveland to complete the Carl Pavano deal.
The Twins claimed Rich Harden. Lots of interesting stuff on that front over the weekend. Joe Christensen believes the Twins could pull something off without negotiating an extension, although "two people close to Harden" think a deal with Minnesota isn't likely. By now you probably know that Harden would be a type-A free agent after the season, has a string of arm injuries under his relatively young belt, and has pitched like a gang buster (whatever that means) since the All-Star Break.
In the same report, it sounds like Christensen essentially believes the Twins will exhaust options on the Harden front before committing money to Brad Penny. We've talked about that, too. Whatever happens, we should have a lot more answers by this time tomorrow night.
Tyler Mason at MLB.com says that Gardenhire's list of September callups will include Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert and Anthony Swarzak. It also sounds like Gardy would like to see somebody called...let me check the name...Daniel Valencia?
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes the Twins will be using both Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins out of the 'pen when they return, which should bolster that side of the pitching staff even more than it already has been. It would of course mean a spot could be found in the rotation for a Harden or a Penny.
Patrick Reusse somehow believes that the Twins had veterans they could have traded in order to bring in some minor league talent, but that their .500 record in a sub-par division has robbed them of that luxury. I don't know who those veterans could have been this year, unless you want to count R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala or...really, I don't know. Mike Redmod? Michael Cuddyer? Dynomite idea. The Twins have made a series of moves that have improved this year's club without mortgaging anything of definite value in the future. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

See you tomorrow!