SB Nation - Brian Buscher

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

When Is It Easier to Replace the Whole Than Replace the Parts?

Jesse — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:37:54 -0000

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And, when can it be done by a financially conscious club?

Answer: When there are no entrenched players with big contracts. Which is exactly the position the Twins find themselves in this year,

Almost two years ago to the day I talked about how this club would go about replacing Torii Hunter. It wasn't realistic to think that the organization would be able to replace everything Torii brought to the table with one guy, but it was possible that the Twins would be able to replace at least parts of his production through different players. This time around it's a little bit different, because A) there's more than one position open, B) the positions are open in spite of guys you could dub "incumbants" and C) we're not asking anyone to replace an All-Star.

If anyone is still wondering what position(s) I'm talking about, it's second base, third base and shortstop. Naturally.

With Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera possibly not returning to the Twins as free agents, both Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher are legitimate non-tender candidates this year. Brendan's versatility is only a plus when it doesn't cost a lot of money, which he's going to get now that he's about to enter arbitration for the first time; Brian's penchant for handling right-handed pitching gives him value in a platoon situation, but his defense and lack of power make him a one-trick pony if you give him extra credit for being able to backup first base. Being able to play multiple positions and having backup options has been part of Minnesota's MO over the last few years, but with Harris and Buscher in particular the Twins have some decisions to make as they weight their cost versus benefits ratios this winter.

This leaves Alexi Casilla (plausible trade fodder), Matt Tolbert (the new, younger and cheaper Harris) and Nick Punto (hello, contract!) as the only infielders who I would rate as likely candidates to remain entering 2010.

Let's get onto the fun part--what a player coming in would have to replace.

On-Base Skills
Casilla (.280), Crede (.289) Tolbert (.303), Harris (.310), Cabrera (.313), Punto (.337), Buscher (.360)

This should be one of the more essential attributes that any incoming infielder should possess. The two-hole, and the bottom of the batting order in general, had trouble producing base runners on any sort of a consistent basis. As a result the lineup, which was constructed around a handful of very competent and talented players, didn't score nearly as many runs as it could have.

Being able to hit, whether that's for power or average or both, is a secondary value as far as I'm concerned. Any player who can come in and simly prolong the inning by avoiding outs is an upgrade, and it's a necessity to find someone who can hit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

Plate Discipline

Getting on-base is priority number one, I don't care how anyone does it. But in the (most likely) event that the Twins don't get their hands on a premier middle infielder who is a natural hitter, they need to find a guy who can step in and just work it out. A guy who can be smart, identify the strike zone, identify pitches and be selective in his approach will find his way on.

Player	BB%	O-Swing%	Swing%	P/PA
Casilla	8.8	29.5	44.4	3.77
Crede	8.0	31.5	53.1	3.70
Tolbert	9.6	24.8	47.5	3.73
Harris	6.5	25.3	45.3	3.84
Cabrera	5.2	27.7	47.5	3.68
Punto	14.5	17.0	38.6	4.22
Buscher	15.0	19.8	41.3	4.26

BB% = Percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk (9.1% average)
O-Swing% = Percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone which were swung at (25.1% average)
Swing% = Overall percentage of pitches swung at (45.2% average)
P/PA = Pitches per plate appearance (3.87 team avearge)

The only two players consistently coming out on the better side of average are Punto and Buscher. We'll get more into Punto and his positives when we get around to our Season In Review series, but it's hard to look at what Brian did this year in very limited action (just 164 plate appearances) in one breath while saying he's a legitimate non-tender candidate in another. That's the difference between the microcosm and The Big Picture.

After our first two categories you should already have a pretty clear picture of how things look with our "incumbents", and how difficult it would be (or not be) to improve upon their 2009 performances. Punto's peripherals don't look horrible, while Buscher (as encouraging as his numbers are) were accumulated in very limited time. And it was limited time for a reason.

Power

Slg Iso HR/FB XBH%

Player	SLG	ISO	HR/FB%	XBH%
Casilla	.259	.057	0.0	3.9
Crede	.414	.189	10.1	8.7
Tolbert	.308	.076	3.7	4.3
Harris	.362	.101	5.2	6.4
Cabrera	.389	.105	4.2	8.1
Punto	.284	.056	1.1	3.9
Buscher	.316	.081	4.9	3.7

Power is an issue. We know this. We also know that as far as shortstop and second base are concerned, it's just a bonus. A big, fat bonus.

Defense

Not a bonus. Punto rated a plus at second base (5.2 UZR/150, while Crede (15.9) and Tolbert (8.0) each came out ahead at third base. Anyone and everyone else who played any sort of time at any of those three positions were, at best, below average. "Butcher" might be a more accurate term in some cases.

Speed

Cabrera is agile, Punto is quick, but only Casilla is someone I would dub as truly fast. He was 11 for 11 in stolen bases this season, confirming not just his raw speed but also his ability to read pitchers and get the jumps he needs. FanGraphs rates his speed component as 6.9 (compared to 5.0 average). That speed still hasn't translated to consistent success in the field however, resulting in flashes of prowess in his range mitigated with any number of mistakes.

Punto was 16-for-19 this season in stolen bases, but this is more a case of a guy who knows how to use his quickness than an example of a player whose raw speed gets him his numbers.

You can teach reaction, hone instincts and train for an explosive first step, but speed itself can't be taught. Finding a player who knows how to maximize his speed is more important than trying to bring in the fastest guy you can find, but as far as this tool is concerned it's one area where the Twins don't actually require improvement.

What good solutions are out there?

Dan Uggla is still toward the top of my list. He was second among all second basemen in walk rates in 2009, walking in 14 percent of his plate appearances. His OBP was solid (.354) and he complimented it with good power (.216 ISO, 31 home runs). He also knows his strike zone (18.7 O-Swing%, also second best in baseball among second basemen). Uggla's biggest detractor is his defense, which would roughly equate to Tolbert's season at second base: not pathetic, but definitely not good. He's right-handed and arbitration eligible.

On the free agent market is one Jamey Carroll, who is about as versatile as it gets while still being an effective hitter; in 2009 he played second, third and both corner outfield positions. For his career he's been extraordinarily selective as a hitter, swinging at just 16.5% of balls outside of the strike zone and just 33.6% of all pitches this past season. Career walk rates? Right around ten percent. On-base percentage? Just over .350 for his career, although hitting between Span and Mauer I could see him doing even better. The downside is that he'll be 36 next season and has only been a full-time player once in his career, usually appearing in roughly 100 games.

Felipe Lopez is also on the market, but projects as a Type-B free agent (not a big deal) and is also a Scott Boraas client (a bigger deal, literally). He's a switch-hitter, 30 in 2010, a good bet to post a .340+ OBP, and is a versatile defender although second and third might be his better positions. Lopez is also good for 25-35 doubles as a full-time player. As an option I really haven't considered much in recent weeks, he's definitely somebody to keep tabs on.

Finally there's fan-favorite J.J. Hardy, who is coming off of his worst professional season and a demotion to triple-A in Milwaukee. He's a gamble, but one that could pay off and likely shouldn't cost as much as Uggla, and he's also consistently been a good defensive shortstp.

Who else gets your vote as a favorite this off-season? How do they stack up as far as the essential peripherals?

As for the question which serves as the title for this post, the answer is as easy as the one I mentioned earlier, but it's probably also a bit more cruel. It's easier to replace the whole when the parts you have just aren't that good. There are bright spots, which includes Buscher's affinity for right-handed pitchers, Casilla's speed and some of Punto's peripherals, but none of them are complete packages and more importantly, none of them are good, star players who are capable of helping give the Twins an additional boost in 2010. They are who they are, with perhaps the exception of Casilla, and if the organization wants to give the club a little extra juice next summer they'll be hard pressed to expect anymore out of those three players than they got in 2009.

ALDS Pre-Game: Do Or Die...Again

Jesse — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:33:42 -0000

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A common theme, I feel.

Joe Mauer will be catching today, playing with a "hip flexor", which basically causes pain any time you try to flex a leg upward; kicking, lifting a knee, that kind of thing. So, really, not idea for your catcher. I'm thinking maybe DH'ing Mauer today, for his own good, would be for the best. With a four-man bench, two of them catchers, I feel it's a move that's pretty much made to order. This is also the kind of game where I'd trust Mike Redmond to come up with a big hit.
Montanatwinsfan noted this earlier, but with Matt Tolbert out due to an oblique strain Brian Buscher is taking his place of the playoff roster. Brendan Harris will get the nod at third base, and hopefully he can make a play or two like he did back in New York on Friday.
Jason Kubel needs to show up today. Four strikeouts in game two, which is just unacceptable by any measurement of success, showed exactly how overmatched he was. The bad news is that it's southpaw veteran Andy Pettitte on the mound, which means Kubel's contributions will be harder to come by. The good news is that pretty much any contribution is better than what he's given the Twins so far.
It's a good thing that Carl Pavano is getting a nod at home in the Dome. I can't imagine what kind of horrible reception he'd get had he started in New York. Not that he couldn't handle it, because I'm sure he could, but no doubt pitching in front of a crowd that's got your back will be much easier. Nick Blackburn managed to largely neutralize that great Yankee offense, and Carl will need to do the same.
It's hard to look at this series thinking "the Twins have to win three in a row" or "the Twins can't lose". You still have to take it one day at a time, because it's no use looking to tomorrow until you've won today. So that's how I'm looking at it: win today. Just win today. Then think about winning tomorrow. One game at a time.
Michael Cuddyer has homered off of Pettitte this year, in Minnesota's one shot at him. Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris picked up multi-hit days. Justin Morneau went 4-for-4, but for some reason I think he's unavailable tonight.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have already seen Pavano twice this season, both times when he was with the Cleveland Indians. Mark Teixeira is the only Yankee with a homer off him, while Derek Jeter is the only Yankee with more than one hit off him.
I like what Bill Smith had to say in Sid Hartman's column today. No excuses, but with a real understanding of the situation:

"We like our team, we like our players. Any success we have is going to be through scouting and player development. We know we have a great manager and great major league coaching staff. We have a lot of good young players who have come through our system."

This could be the swan song for the Metrodome, but I'd like to play at least one more. Let's take down the Yankees tonight.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Showdown In Dome Town: Twins Playing Host to Tigers

Jesse — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:32:32 -0000

Current Series

3 game series vs Tigers @ Metrodome

Detroit Tigers Bless You Boys
@ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town

Friday, Sep 18, 2009, 8:10 PM EDT
Metrodome

Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing

Complete Coverage >

Sat 09/19 4:10 PM EDT

Sun 09/20 2:10 PM EDT

Games back: 4.0

For weeks we've been back and forth on this. Every time the Twins hit a streak of luck and run off a couple of wins they manage to take a step back. And yet every time they're pushed to the brink, to the point where it seems they can do no right and nothing more than a whisper would push them into the abyss of elimination, they find a way to scratch and fight back above .500.

In most divisions that wouldn't be good enough. But in the AL Central it's a reality, and it's making for another heartburn-happy September.

Thanks to Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals, the Tigers will be prowling through Minneapolis this weekend with a four-game lead over our Minnesota Twins. Forget records, this is all about the gap to first place. We all understand what's at stake here.

Injury Report

Twins:
Both Justin Morneau and Joe Crede are out for the season, leaving the middle of the order down 40% on their power hitters. Michael Cuddyer is filling in at first base, giving Ron Gardenhire the chance to play Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young everyday. Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris will be picking up more of the time at third.

Tigers:
Dontrelle Willis has been out for some time, but both Nate Robertson and Jarrod Washburn are fighting injuries and won't pitch this series. Detroit has no scheduled starter for Sunday's contest.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, September 18: Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing
Saturday, September 19: Justin Verlander vs Carl Pavano
Sunday, September 20: TBA vs Scott Baker

Opposition Focus

Rick Porcello: For a kid who won't be able to legally drink until two days after Christmas, Porcello doesn't seem to be too worked up over the pressure he's been facing with his team down the stretch. His fastball has good sink and it's been his best pitch, while his breaking ball(s) and off-speed pitch haven't been quite as effective. Porcello will beat you by inducing contact, and because his ground ball rates are so good (54.8%) you'll need to string together two or three hits on most occasions before you score a run. If he does let one get up, however, they're a little more likely to get a little boost. If the Twins are getting a lot of line drives or are hitting some hard flies on Friday night, it should be a sign that they're seeing him pretty well. Hopefully that would turn into runs. If Porcello gets into a groove, however, those innings could start flying by with nothing more to show than a string of 6-3 put outs.

Justin Verlander: Verlander is good. I'd probably vote for Zack Greinke for the Cy Young, but Verlander isn't too far off. Over 12.1 innings in two starts versus the Twins this year he's allowed seven runs over 12.1 innings, giving up 12 hits, five hits and striking out 19. Yes, 19.

Magglio Ordonez: He's really bounced back, and all that's missing from his game is power. Sort of like Bobby Abreu. Only with less power. He's back to hitting third for the Tigers, hitting .347/.418/.493 since the All-Star break.

Brandon Inge: Still looks like the biggest jerk to ever jerk a jerk. Doing a great Joe Crede impression this year. If Joe Crede were healthy.

Adam Everett: Anybody wish we'd given him another shot? He's hitting a paltry .244/.296/.335, but that's not much worse than some of our other infielders. His UZR/150 is only 4.2, but that's better than any of the five guys the Twins have tried at the spot this year. For reference, Orlando Cabrera's UZR/150 with the Twins is -17.9. He's also still making plenty of plays outside of his zone (36 and counting), although not as frequently as he once was.

Miguel Cabrera: Also awesome. The man is only 26 and has amassed ~~438~~ 205 home runs. In the history of the Minnesota Twins, only Harmon Killebrew [edit: and Kent Hrbek and Bob Allison and Tony Oliva and Kirby Pucket end edit] and has ever hit more home runs than a 26-year old. Incredible. And let's not even pretend he's a one-dimensional offensive force.

Fernando Rodney: Tigers fans, this is a closer. Rodney isn't a bad pitcher, but after dealing with Todd Jones for so long it has to be like watching the second coming of...wait...oh my god, really? Todd Jones is Detroit's career save leader? I feel so dirty.

You want meaningful autumn baseball? This might be as close as we get. Get out and support the Twins this weekend if you can, and if not, then we'll see you here.

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Jesse — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:20:36 -0000

Another weekend come and gone, and another series victory for the Twins. Let's hit some weekend highlights.

The Twins picked up Ron Mahay.
The Twins picked up Jon Rauch.
Joe Crede has finally hit the disabled list.
Yohan Pino was shipped to Cleveland to complete the Carl Pavano deal.
The Twins claimed Rich Harden. Lots of interesting stuff on that front over the weekend. Joe Christensen believes the Twins could pull something off without negotiating an extension, although "two people close to Harden" think a deal with Minnesota isn't likely. By now you probably know that Harden would be a type-A free agent after the season, has a string of arm injuries under his relatively young belt, and has pitched like a gang buster (whatever that means) since the All-Star Break.
In the same report, it sounds like Christensen essentially believes the Twins will exhaust options on the Harden front before committing money to Brad Penny. We've talked about that, too. Whatever happens, we should have a lot more answers by this time tomorrow night.
Tyler Mason at MLB.com says that Gardenhire's list of September callups will include Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert and Anthony Swarzak. It also sounds like Gardy would like to see somebody called...let me check the name...Daniel Valencia?
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes the Twins will be using both Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins out of the 'pen when they return, which should bolster that side of the pitching staff even more than it already has been. It would of course mean a spot could be found in the rotation for a Harden or a Penny.
Patrick Reusse somehow believes that the Twins had veterans they could have traded in order to bring in some minor league talent, but that their .500 record in a sub-par division has robbed them of that luxury. I don't know who those veterans could have been this year, unless you want to count R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala or...really, I don't know. Mike Redmod? Michael Cuddyer? Dynomite idea. The Twins have made a series of moves that have improved this year's club without mortgaging anything of definite value in the future. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

See you tomorrow!

Is It Time to Call Up Danny Valencia?

Jesse — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 20:36:06 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

And nobody is surprised Joe Crede can't stay healthy. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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With Joe Crede hurt and in-house options not tearing the cover off the ball, when is the right time to call upon Rochester's 24-year old third baseman?

I really wish Crede would stop getting hurt. Or if not hurt, nickled and dimed out of playing. This latest set-back is quite temporary, but with another cortisone shot to his right shoulder he's scheduled to "just" miss this weekend's series in Detroit. Here's the sad part: going back one month to the 9th of July the Twins have played 24 games and Crede has played in just 13 of them.

Oddly enough, the Twins are 2-9 in the eleven games without Joe. Yes, they're 8-5 with him. And while those records are less representative of his contributions to the club than they are of team performance in those games, there's no doubt Minnesota misses Crede in the field.

UZR/150, 3rd Base, Minnesota Twins, 2009
Joe Crede: 19.3
Brian Buscher: -12.9
Brendan Harris: -15.6
Matt Tolbert: -97.3

But this is rehashing what we already know--that Crede brings value with him onto the field. The problem is that getting onto the field precludes you must be healthy. Which, as we've covered, he isn't.

As of this afternoon, one Daniel Valencia of the Rochester Red Wings is hitting .288/.311/.471 in 153 at-bats. It's not mouth-watering but it's certainly not bad. He's been rumored to be decent with the leather at the hot corner, and if he is actually going to be the front-runner for third base over the next couple of seasons I won't blame anyone for wanting to get a glimpse. Valencia appeared to be a hot commodity running up to the trade deadline. Who really doesn't want to audition the future?

This is a multi-facted issue. Valencia isn't a sure shot by any stretch of the imagination, and so thrusting a rookie into the midst of a playoff push won't be doing the other 24 men on your MLB roster any favors in confidence. There's also service time, and we know the Twins aren't always the most eager to start the clock. Not to mention the problems of who to send down, what's best for Valencia's development in the larger picture, and what to do with him should Crede actually get healthy and play everyday through the end of September because exclusively riding the pine is probably not the best option.

According to the Minor League Equivalency calculator, translating Valencia's current line in Rochester into a triple slash for the Twins comes to a disappointing .251/.274/.400.

Maybe Valencia gives the bench a little more strength in terms of pop, but unless Crede does actually go down in flames or we can guarantee he'll only be playing part time I'm not quite ready to call for this one. Valencia needs to play everyday while he can. Besides, once the Red Wings' season wraps up in a couple of weeks it's almost a guarantee that Danny gets a cup of coffee in September anyway. Why rob him of his playing time if he's only going to sit on the bench for two weeks?

Just for fun, and for reference, here are the offensive numbers for the top third baseman in the Twins triple-A system over the last ten years. All numbers are courtesy of The Baseball Cube.

Year	Name	Age	AB	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009	Danny Valencia	24	153	13	5	.288	.311	.471
2008	Trevor Plouffe	22	250	17	6	.256	.292	.420
2007	Matt Moses	22	174	8	2	.224	.244	.305
2006	Terry Tiffee	27	308	20	4	.273	.314	.377
2005	Terry Tiffee	26	229	11	10	.266	.313	.454
2004	Terry Tiffee	25	316	26	12	.307	.357	.522
2003	Shane Andrews	31	445	31	11	.256	.324	.409
2002	Casey Blake	28	482	25	19	.309	.383	.492
2001	Casey Blake	27	375	24	10	.309	.376	.485
2000	Casey Blake	26	293	22	12	.317	.406	.529

Suffice it to say that this hasn't exactly been a bumper crop. I have only three things to say.

That '04 - '07 era was a hard time. Poor Terry Tiffee.
Tiffee was clearly on something in 2004. Oddly enough he's still playing, this season with the Phillies triple-A affiliate.
I'm really glad we didn't give that Casey Blake fellow too many chances. 29 games over three seasons was more than enough.

Poll

Would you call Danny Valencia up now?

Yes

91 votes

No

140 votes

231 votes | Poll has closed

Revenge of the Twinkies: Twins Blow Out Angels In Series Finale

Jesse — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 23:07:59 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Justin Morneau hits a home run, his second of the game, as Los Angeles Angels catcher Mike Napoli, left, looks on during the seventh inning of a baseball game Sunday, July 26, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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Twins 10, Angels 1

Early Sunday morning Ervin Santana got up, had a glass of juice, and thought ahead to his matchup against the Minnesota Twins. He had a genius idea. Much like ancient warriors believed that drinking the blood of their enemies would make them stronger, perhaps eating a box of Twinkies would help him defeat the Twins. And so, smiling at his own genius, Santana began to eat a box of Twinkies.

Santana is now vomiting up Twinkies. They kicked his ass.

Justin Morneau went deep twice this afternoon, although bringing the rain and dropping a three is preferable. But you can't blame a guy for a deuce. Even Denard Span got in on the longball act, pushing the Twins to double-digits with a two-run blast in the eighth. Offensively it was a good game for the Twins, as each member of the starting lineup reached base at least once, whether by hit or by walk. Santana couldn't get through the fourth, getting knocked for six runs off six hits and a pair of walks in 3.2 innings.

Anthony Swarzak, on the other hand, was exactly what the doctor ordered. When he found himself in trouble, which he did on a couple of occasions, he found a way to make a pitch and convert the out. There's no doubt he could have easily made it through the seventh inning if it hadn't been for his defense, which insisted the Angels be given a minimum of five outs as a courtesy since they had been such gracious hosts. A throwing error by Nick Punto led off the inning, although I'm sure that had Morneau been playing first base instead of Cuddyer the play would have been made. Howie Kendrick then tried his best to hit into a double play, but Erik Aybar did his part and bore down hard on Alexi Casilla. Casilla took Punto's under-handed dish and tried to turn two but the throw was wild as he tried to get rid of it, and the ball sailed past Cuddyer. A fly-out would sandwich a pair of walks, and that was the day for Swarzak. Matt Guerrier finished the inning without allowing a run, and on the day Anthony went 6.2 innings with just one blemish on his line: Kendry Morales' solo jack in the fourth.

Guerrier and Jesse Crain combined for 2.1 scoreless inning of relief for the Twins, who were able to at least manage one win over the weekend. Other highlights of the game:

Carlos Gomez made a nice diving/sliding catch in the bottom of the ninth. The game was already decided, so it's great to see the intensity and desire in spite of the circumstances on a hot afternoon.
Gomez also scored three times this afternoon.
Nick Punto delivered a big two-run single in the fourth to put the Twins up 4-0. Nick was 2-for-4 today with a double and three RBI.
In addition to his home run, Span also had a two-run single.
He also had an error. Boo.
Brian Buscher picked up another two hits today, making him 6-for-17 with a walk in his last four games.
Guerrier hasn't allowed an earned run in exactly one month. That's 13 appearances and 14 innings.
By comparison, and we're focusing on the positive here, that's two scoreless appearances (and 2.1 innings) for Crain. His fastball was a consistent 95 mph this afternoon, which was great to see.
This makes five quality starts for Swarzak in eight tries.

More Twins/Angels coverage from SB Nation.
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Stars of the Game
#3: Nick Punto (2-for-4, 2B, R, 3 RBI, .138 WPA)
#2: Justin Morneau (2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, BB, .195 WPA)
#1: Anthony Swarzak (6.2 IP, 4 H, 4 K, 3 BB, 1 R, .197 WPA)

The Downward Spiral: Twins Drop Fourth Straight, Three In A Row to Angels

Jesse — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 23:56:36 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Nick Blackburn (53) reacts after giving up a single to Los Angeles Angels' Howie Kendrick, that scores Mike Napoli, during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Saturday, July 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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Twins 5, Angels 11

There's something painful about every single loss in a situation like this, because every loss counts. And when they run together in the fashion that they have, it makes it just a little worse. This is not fun. Watching the Twins play the Angels, even though it's on their turf, there's really no question: the Angels are the better team.

Nick Blackburn was his old self for three innings. It was nine up, nine down, 41 pitches and no runs. No hits. No walks. The Twins even scored a pair in the top of the third for a 2-0 lead. Then the bottom of the fourth happens.

Chone Figgins homered, of all people, to lead off the onslaught. Maicer Izturis doubles, Bobby Abreu singles, Kendry Morales doubles, Mike Napoli singles. This makes it 3-2 in favor of the Angels. Then a double play, including a play on Morales at the plate to hold the score. Howie Kendrick singles in another run before Gary Mathews Jr. walks, and with the score 4-2, Angels, Blackburn is lifted. He couldn't do a single thing right in the fourth inning, and it all caught up to him at once.

R.A. Dickey came on to suck up the middle innings, per the 2009 Bullpen Handbook. Two singles, a home run by Izturis and another single later, and the Angels had thrown up a nine-run inning. Blackburn was charged with six of those runs, and it looked like just another game that the pitching staff somehow pissed away.

Jason Kubel's 18th homer in the third inning scored Joe Mauer. In the seventh, Kubel doubled in Denard Span for Minnesota's third run. Kubel scored on a throwing error and Brian Buscher singled in Michael Cuddyer for the third run of the inning, closing the gap to 9-5, but that's as close as it got.

Bobby Keppel threw two scoreless innings and Brian Duensing threw a scoreless seventh, but Jose Mijares let two more drop in the bottom of the eighth to make it 11-5. That's the score.

I know the Twins, and Ron Gardenhire, are interested in Orlando Cabrera. I also know the front office has been actively searching for bullpen help, particularly with the Blue Jays, Orioles and Athletics. But with the way this team is playing right now, so close to the deadline, I have to wonder if any move would be worth the trouble. Today's loss puts the Twins two games under .400, at 48-50, leaving them two games behind the White Sox but five games off the pace of the Tigers. The Twins are currently sixth in the Wild Card standings, behind Boston, Texas, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Chicago.

Right now I'm not sure where this team stands. But wherever it is, it's not a good place. Something needs to turn around and fast, or this season is going to slip away before the calendar turns to August.

Stars of the Game
#3: Bobby Keppel (2 IP, 2 H, 1 K, 1 BB, 0 R, .004 WPA)
#2: Joe Mauer (2-for-5, R, .028 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2B, HR, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, .216 WPA)

Dudes You're Bumming Me Out
#1: R.A. Dickey: The game was already spiraling out of control, but you couldn't stem the tide when we needed you to.
#2: Nick Blackburn: Dude, you were just lit up in the fourth. Bad times.
#3: Michael Cuddyer & Justin Morneau: Stranded seven between the pair, with two hits, a walk and a run combined in nine at-bats. Sorry, guys.

The Audacity of Hope

Jesse — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 22:55:30 -0000

I'm not talking national pride here. Just fan pride.

Something strange happens when you get emotionally tied to someone or something. Basically, you start to care what happens to them. Or it. Somewhere along the line you pick up a vested interest, and now this person, this object, this team has you wrapped around its little finger.

Don't be ashamed. We're not the first. We won't be the last.

There can be a dark twist to caring very deeply. This emotional investment can take hold of you and cause you to respond in ways that, logically, don't always make sense. You can second guess decisions and, at times, feel like you know better than they do the repurcussions of their choices.

With the Twins over the last eight seasons, there has been a lot of hope. It's paid off in ways, with division crowns and playoff appearances. But there's something that's dreadful and sickening about being a runner-up, coming in second place. Right now, as it has been for the last couple of seasons, the Twins are runners-up. They're close. They're competetive. You know what that does?

It turns us into obsessive, controlling, power-hungry parents. The kind that rush onto our 9-year old's basketball court and punch the volunteer high-school referee in the nose for letting our kid get fouled and not blowing the whistle. Our kid is the team. That referee is the front office.

What happened? Sure, it might feel good to punch a high-school chump in the nose, but he didn't deserve it. It's his show to run and he's using his best judgment, which we clearly weren't when we decided it was worth cold cocking the poor kid. In our belief that we knew what was best for the game, best for our kid on the court, we rushed to judgment. We wanted justice and vindication and validation, and we thought we deserved every bit of it.

Right now, what is it that we're expecting our front office to do exactly? We're not sure how long Joe Crede will be out for, which means there's suddenly another gaping hole in the lineup. It can be plugged with a Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon, but for a team headed for October that's not an ideal solution. Add that to the lack of a quality bullpen arm, the lack of a stopper in the rotation and the obvious lack of depth at short and second, and suddenly I, at least, feel like we're trying to plug holes in a dike without enough Dutch kids.

The big situation here is that the Twins are competetive, but right now there are just a lot of problems with this team if we're talking about making a serious run at October this year. So what do we do? We expect that poor ~~high school kid~~ front office to go out and execute trades with other teams to bring in the kind of talent that makes us a legitimate contender not just for the division, but for the crowning achievement of the World Series itself.

It's the hope that's killing us right now, as fans. The organization has done a superb job of keeping the team just good enough to be competetive every season. Hope. Every year for the last eight years, when we get to this point of the season there's been at least a shred of light at the end of the tunnel, pulling us forward with the promise of maybe. That promise is still there this year, and it's calling out to us.

It makes us want to do something about it. It makes us want to jump into action. It's all so tantalizingly close that we can taste it, and yet that damn high school kid can't see the call?

Of course it's not about seeing a call. It's about being smart, all the time, and about taking advantage of certain opportunities when and if you can. There are no pipe dreams or obvious paths to follow, just the opportunity to, year after year, make the best decisions you can to put your team in the best possible position going forward. There's a lot that goes into that.

If Minnesota had Cleveland's record there wouldn't be calls for a major deal, because it'd be absurd. But the Twins are better than the Indians, and indeed the Twins are still in the running. That's the hope that blinds us, asks us to entertain notions and implores us to accept delusions of grandeur as the obvious.

So here's the reality check: the Twins won't be pulling off any major deals in the next week, or even in August, because at this point the costs would outweigh the realistic benefits. Minnesota would need to bring in four or five players to plug all the holes this team has right now, and that's unrealistic even when your farm system is stacked with top tier talent.

The problem is that a lot of fans would see this as throwing in the towel, when it's anything but. I've cried myself that this orgnanization needs to step up and make a play, but right now that isn't the best plan for this club. I can't let the fact that I've been unhappy with the lack of mid-season moves in recent history cloud my judgment for what's best for this team right now and for the future, which is for the moment to simply to let things lie.

Staying the course is a really hard decision to make, because as a general rule I happen to personally believe that standing still is as good doing harm. But sometimes standing still and weathering the storm is the best thing to do, and for this team in this situation, right now I believe that is the best course of action. I don't want this team tying up money in trades that could be used in next year's free agent market, or on our own guys who are due to receive contract extensions. And I don't want to trade for a Crede replacement when Danny Valencia is making strides in Rochester and could step into third base next summer.

Baseball, just like life, is all about balance and knowing when to make your big decisions. Maybe the Twins haven't always made the best choices on their big decisions in the past, but right now I believe that making no choice is still a choice, and right now that is in the best interest of the organization.

Detroit Tigers Bless You Boys @ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town Friday, Sep 18, 2009, 8:10 PM EDT Metrodome Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing Complete Coverage >
Sat 09/19		4:10 PM EDT
Sun 09/20		2:10 PM EDT

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Current Series 3 game series vs Tigers @ Metrodome Detroit Tigers Bless You Boys @ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town Friday, Sep 18, 2009, 8:10 PM EDT Metrodome Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing Complete Coverage > Sat 09/19 4:10 PM EDT Sun 09/20 2:10 PM EDT

Current Series

3 game series vs Tigers @ Metrodome

Games back: 4.0

Injury Report

Probable Pitchers

Opposition Focus

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Is It Time to Call Up Danny Valencia?

Would you call Danny Valencia up now?

Yes

No

Revenge of the Twinkies: Twins Blow Out Angels In Series Finale

The Downward Spiral: Twins Drop Fourth Straight, Three In A Row to Angels

Twins 5, Angels 11

The Audacity of Hope

Current Series

3 game series vs Tigers @ Metrodome

Detroit Tigers Bless You Boys
@ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town

Friday, Sep 18, 2009, 8:10 PM EDT
Metrodome

Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing

Complete Coverage >

Sat 09/19 4:10 PM EDT

Sun 09/20 2:10 PM EDT