SB Nation - Rafael Betancourt

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Tuesday Rockpile: Rafael Betancourt is officially a Rockie again

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:42:20 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

Browse more photos »

Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table. Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night. He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted. In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla. Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years. It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years. Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points. Who knew? A quick note from the bottom of the article. Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding). In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot. He was then sold to a team in Japan. I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

Arizona

MLBTR reports several teams are interested in reliever JJ Putz, including Arizona.

The Diamondbacks reportedly pushed yesterday's blockbuster trade, in which they would send Max Scherzer and one or two prospects while receiving Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. The deal would also involve Curtis Granderson. While Joel Sherman called the deal dead and Buster Olney is "unsure if the embers can be re-lit", there is one optimist. Jon Paul Morosi reports it is still a possibility.

Arizona beat writer Nick Piecoro's head must have been spinning, as he clearly disagreed with the idea of offering Scherzer for Jackson.

Los Angeles

While Los Angeles has no plans to decrease payroll (Dylan Hernandez, LA Times), they don't seem to be in much of a place of power. The Mets reportedly agreed to send Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Juan Pierre, a move that would improve the Dodgers' starting lineup and take an expensive bench player off the books, but Ned Colletti wants pitching in return.

The Blue Jays talked to the Dodgers about Roy Halladay (Jayson Stark) but there is expectedly no match there

Colletti is also open to dealing lefty George Sherrill.

San Diego

The Padres will apparently non-tender Kevin Correia MLBTR), who was clearly their most valuable pitcher from start to finish. The former Giant had just a $750k base salary last season. It's a very sad cheap move from the Friars, but I guess they'll need to the money to pay their closer. While Heath Bell is one of their most enticing trade chips, San Diego's new GM Jed Hoyer seems inclined to keep Bell (Corey Brock, MLB.com), who would garner about a $5mil salary next season.

San Diego has also been linked to outfielder Reed Johnson (Bill Center, San Diego Union Tribune) and are now on the prowl for a backup catcher with the loss of Henry Blanco (Center).

San Francisco

St. Louis put a dent in the Giants' rotational depth, as the Cards signed Brad Penny to a one -year $7.5mil base salary contract (Buster Olney). He will likely have a physical tomorrow to complete the deal.

MLB.com's Chris Haft has some Giants nuggets - Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres will be their leadoff hitter, neither Pablo Sandoval nor Ryan Garko will catch at all next year, and the Giants might attempt to acquire Juan Rivera if the Angels sign Jason Bay.

Speaking of Garko, he is still "on the bubble" for being non-tendered a contract, according to Sabean (Andrew Baggarly).

Only one NL team remains a serious player for Dan Uggla, that team being San Francisco (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com). The Orioles are the most likely landing spot.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Tuesday: Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Jesse — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:33:42 -0000

9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster. He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened: the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer: Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings. I love Gammons, so this makes me sad. Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Au revoir, Boof. It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club. Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

1:05 pm - A few notes on names of interest as the first big trade of the Winter Meetings nears completion (Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks)...

LaTroy Hawkins is hoping to get a deal done with the Astros. Hawkins turns 37 in a couple of weeks.
Sounds like the Orioles are still the leading candidate to land Dan Uggla.
As fischean pointed out, Ryan Church has been designated for assignment. Does anyone think the Twins would be interested in him as a fourth outfielder?
This three-way deal sounds like it'll be a pretty big deal...

Noon - From LEN III's mid-morning update...

The Padres want to speak to the Twins about Kevin Kouzmanoff. Remember when we were talking about him for about four straight days last year?
Sounds like the agent for Pedro Feliz wants to feel up out the Twins as well.
He believes Boof Bonser could be made available, and that the Padres (probably in relation to Kouz) might be interested in Glen Perkins.

11:15 am - Joe C. projects that if Pavano makes $7 million through arbitration (I still want to think that's high) then Minnesota's opening day payroll is already at $90 million--without making another move or extending Joe Mauer.

11:05 am - Kelsie Smith has an email from Pavano where he explains why he's staying with the Twins. I don't want to share the whole thing, because Kelsie deserves a look for having it in the first place, but this line struck me:

Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase.<.i>

10:40 am - Over at his blog, LEN III speculates that with Pavano accepting arbitration, Glen Perkins is expendable pitcher numero uno. Do you agree?

6:30 am - Rounding up some Twins-related news from yesterday before we kick off the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Carl Pavano was one of three potential free agents to accept arbitration, along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano. And that's...pretty much it! Perchance day two will bring more news, but I guarantee it'll continue to bring more speculation...

Monday Rockpile: Winter Meetings Open Thread

Russ Oates — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:41:21 -0000

Betancourt weighing his options on Rockies’ arbitration offer | All Things Rockies
Troy Renck isn't quite as sure as Tracy Ringolby on Rafael Betancourt's decision to accept the Rockies offer of arbitration. Maybe that has something to do with the Brewers still having some interest in the pitcher, but apparently their offer isn't as good as what he'll receive in arbitration as well as the loss of draft picks. O'Dowd and Betancourt's agent will meet today.

Baseball Prospectus | Prospectus Today: NL Shopping Lists (Subscription Required)
Joe Sheehan runs down what each NL team's situation is as the Winter Meetings start. Sheehan's section on the Rockies revolves around moving Brad Hawpe for a starting pitcher or an infielder.

BaseballAmerica.com: Blog: John Manuel’s Early Take On The Talent Rankings
John Manuel put together his personal minor league rankings, and the Rockies are somewhere in the 6-15 range.

Pirates made less than $11 million past two years
This is not surprising.

Let the Winter Meetings begin!

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Saturday Rockpile: The stove is heating up as the Rockies begin to show interest in Free Agents

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:48:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Could the O-Dog be in the Rockies' plans for 2010?

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Rockies show interest in Hudson, hope Betancourt accepts arbitration - Fox Sports on MSN
Although the Rox would net two draft picks and avoid paying $6 million for one year of an aging reliever, they still hope that Rafael Betancourt accepts their arbitration offer. His situation on the market may force him to do just that.

Tracy Ringolsby also reports that the Rockies have began to show interest in free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. I recall this being something that a lot of fans wished the Rockies paid attention to last offseason. However, to me it sounds like a good move this year as well, rather than it being a year too late. Hudson, 32, just finished a nice season for the Dodgers and could help the Rockies alleviate their need for a right-handed bench bat by simply inserting O-Dog into the starting lineup and using Clint Barmes in the bench/super-utility role. On top of all of that, Hudson wasn't offered arbitration by LA, so signing him will not require draft compensation. This all could be one big moot point, though, as Dan O'Dowd has denied seriously pursuing Hudson.

Rox could shift to Hawkins if Betancourt departs, while keeping an eye on Duchsherer and DeRosa - The Denver Post
In the event that Raffy B does not accept arbitration and decides to bolt for another club, Troy E. Renck says the Rockies have been open about the fact that they would love to bring back LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins has had a good past few years pitching out of the bullpen for the Astros and Rockies and still throws very hard and has good stuff (although his walk totals are still a bit high), especially for his age. It sounds like the Rockies will definitely be bringing one of these guys back, though, as it could be as late as the middle of 2010 when we'll see Taylor Buchholz return.

Meanwhile, Justin Duchscherer has become a top target for the Rox as well. If he can get past his physical and mental health issues, Duchscherer has proven to be a solid big league starter and would be a good fit to the back of anybody's rotation. Also, Renck mentions that the Rockies have expressed interest in Mark DeRosa, who hits lefties well and could be another option to fill the right-handed void that the Rockies have amongst position players.

2010 MLB Arbitration Tracker

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:48:02 -0000

The deadline for offering salary arbitration to impending free agents is midnight tonight. Here are the latest decisions.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

The full arbitration decision list is after the jump.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Rod Barajas	Blue Jays	B	NO
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Erik Bedard	Mariners	B	NO
Joe Beimel	Rockies	B	NO
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	B	YES
Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	A	YES
Doug Brocail	Astros	B	NO
Marlon Byrd	Rangers	B	YES
Kiko Calero	Marlins	B	NO
Johnny Damon	Yankees	A	NO
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Carlos Delgado	Mets	B	NO
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Octavio Dotel	White Sox	B	NO
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Jermaine Dye	White Sox	A	NO
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Jon Garland	Dodgers	B	NO
Brian Giles	Padres	B	NO
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Mike Gonzalez	Braves	A	YES
Kevin Gregg	Cubs	A	NO
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Rich Harden	Cubs	B	NO
LaTroy Hawkins	Astros	A	NO
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
Orlando Hudson	Dodgers	A	NO
Nick Johnson	Marlins	B	NO
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Adam LaRoche	Braves	B	NO
Brandon Lyon	Tigers	B	YES
Jason Marquis	Rockies	B	YES
Guillermo Mota	Dodgers	B	NO
Xavier Nady	Yankees	B	NO
Will Ohman	Dodgers	B	NO
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Miguel Olivo	Royals	B	NO
Vicente Padilla	Dodgers	B	NO
Carl Pavano	Indians	B	YES
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	B	NO
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Placido Polanco	Tigers	A	NO
Fernando Rodney	Tigers	B	YES
Ivan Rodriguez	Rangers	B	YES
Marco Scutaro	Blue Jays	A	YES
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Rafael Soriano	Braves	A	YES
Fernando Tatis	Mets	B	NO
Miguel Tejada	Astros	A	NO
Yorvit Torrealba	Rockies	B	NO
Jose Valverde	Astros	A	YES
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Randy Wolf	Dodgers	A	NO
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

Arbitration News - UPDATE

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:36:44 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

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A couple arbitration related headlines making news this Tuesday, courtesy of MLB.com:

The Rockies have offered arbitration to pitchers Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt. The Rockies and Betancourt could not work out a two-year deal earlier this offseason, but likely will try to work out a deal before the hearing. Either way, they have set themselves up for draft picks if they don't sign either.
The Blue Jays have offered arbitration to shortstop Marco Scutaro and catcher Rod Barajas. Scutaro, a Type-A free agent, may have trouble finding a job this offseason if the Red Sox pursue other options at short. Teams may not be as willing to surrender to draft picks for a guy like Scutaro, who is only a .265 hitter who has never hit more than 9 home runs before this past season, when he hit 12.
The Padres will not offer arbitration to outfielder Brian Giles or catcher Henry Blanco. Blanco has drawn interest from the Mets, White Sox, and Braves.
The White Sox will not offer arbitration to outfielder Jermaine Dye, pitcher Octavio Dotel, outfielder Scott Podsednik, or catcher Ramon Castro.
Bob Dutton via Twitter is reporting that the Royals will not offer arbitration to Miguel Olivo. Olivo is the only Royal to receive a free agent ranking, he is a Type-B free agent.
The Detroit Free Press is reporting that the Tigers offered arbitration to right-handers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not infielder Placido Polanco, shortstop Adam Everett, left-hander Jarrod Washburn and first baseman-designated hitter Aubrey Huff. The Tigers are expected to stay in contract with Polanco and Everett, but sources say they have already moved on from Huff and Washburn.
Carrie Muskat via Twitter is reporting that the Cubs will not offer arbitration to pitchers Rich Harden or Kevin Gregg.

Saturday Rockpile: Rockies retain Phillips, protect five prospects by adding to 40-man roster

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:02:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Phillips is in the fold - The Denver Post
The Rox signed Paul Phillips to a hefty $13,000/month contract yesterday, which gives the Rockies a contingency plan in the event that Yorvit Torrealba is lost to free agency and Michael McKenry doesn't become superman in Spring Training (which I have a good feeling he won't do, although I'm definitely rooting for it).

McKenry among those added to 40-man roster | All Things Rockies
Speaking of Michael McKenry, the Rox protected five prospects from the Rule 5 Draft. It's good to know that McKenry, Al Alburquerque, Edgmer Escalona, Juan Nicasio, and Chaz Roe won't be leaving the organization without a return. The club still has two open spots to play with.

White Sox add five to 40-man roster | MLB.com: News
Former Colorado farmhand Brandon Hynick was among Chicago's additions.

Law: Ranking the top 50 MLB free agents - ESPN (Insider Only)
Keith Law lists his top free agents, from Matt Holliday at No. 1 to Adam Everett at No. 50. In between, two Rockies players are included - the soon-to-be-gone Jason Marquis (#32) and Rafael Betancourt (#33). Here's what Law had to say about Raffy:

Betancourt throws a lot of fastballs and throws them for strikes. He's at 89-94 mph, mostly 91-93, with a short arm action and good deception because of it, and his stinginess with the walk -- only 85 unintentionals in 435 career innings -- should keep him employed for a while. He'll get ahead with the fastball, and he primarily uses his slider when he's ahead, especially with two strikes, although he's just as likely to keep pumping heat. His 2008 season, whether bad luck or a carryover from the way manager Eric Wedge overused him in 2007, now looks like a fluke, and Betancourt is the rare middle reliever who's worth a multiyear contract.

Final notes from Arizona Fall League - ESPN (Insider Only)
No mention of any Rockies, but there is a story about a bat boy-turned-criminal from ESPN.com's Jason Grey:

Stuff had been disappearing from one of the team's clubhouses for a period of a couple weeks. This situation was apparently resolved when police offers literally went into the dugout during the game and took the team's batboy away in handcuffs. Did I mention this happened during the game? The look on the manager's face was priceless, as in "What the heck are you doing in my dugout?" Lacking a batboy, the club plucked a lucky fan out of the stands to fill the role for the rest of the contest.