SB Nation - Fernando Cabrera

Minor League Update -- 12/14/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:52:25 -0000

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .296/.375/.467

-Numbers are on the rise again.

Dominican Winter League

Fabio Castro is the first in a string of recent acquisitions playing in the Winter Leagues. It's been a while since he's pitched, so he may be done. Managed a 2.47 ERA in 44 innings, striking out 36 and allowing 16 walks. Certainly not a bad resume.

Jose Capellan: .2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – 3.75 ERA, 10:24 K:BB, 1.83 WHIP

-It's amazing how low his ERA is giving up a walk per inning...

Mexican Pacific League

Another newbie in Minor League FA Darnell McDonald, but he hasn't played since November 1^st. .854 OPS on the season, which is pretty much in line with his AAA-lifer status at age 31. Entirely a depth move.

Robert Coello: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K – 3.29 ERA, 46:24 K:BB, 1.28 WHIP

Puerto Rican Winter League

The new guy here is Angel Sanchez, a 26-year-old defensive specialist SS with no bat.

Aaron Bates: 5-14, 2B, 3B, 5 K – .315/.373/.481

Reymond Fuentes: 1-3, K – .182/.250/.227

-I'm honestly sort of surprised the Sox are playing him here. It seems like it's just a good opportunity to ruin confidence.

Angel Sanchez: 7-15, 2B, K, SB, CS – .324/.385/.412

-Based on his lifetime numbers, this is the best you're gonna see him at.

Sydney Winter League

Boss Moanaroa: 3-5, 3B – .417/.500/.611

Moko Moanaroa: 1-3, 2 BB, 2B – .294/.429/.382

Venezuelan Winter League

More new faces here in free agent signing Edwin Moreno and waiver acquisition Ramon Ramirez. Moreno hasn't pitched in 3 weeks or so. 3.12 ERA, 16:6 K:BB, 1.27 WHIP in 17.1 innings.

Yeiper Castillo: .1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 3.86 ERA, 7:10 K:BB, 1.63 WHIP

Ramon Ramirez: 5 IP, 11 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – 7.02 ERA, 15:5 K:BB, 1.74 WHIP

-A less-than-stellar introduction.

Plenty of Movement in the Minors

While the Red Sox' front office has been largely quiet as far as major league moves are concerned, Baseball America says they've been plenty active on the minor league front. Over the last few weeks, the Sox have re-signed reliever Fernando Cabrera and shortstop Gil Velazquez, and added relievers Bob McCrory and Edwin Moreno, shortstop Angel Sanchez, and outfielder Darnell McDonald. As is usually the case with free-agent signings, these all appear to be depth moves with only a few guys having any chance to impact the big league club at all.

To counter the additions, the Red Sox released reliever Jason Blackey, outfielders Jered Stanley and Sean Danielson, and catcher John Otness.

Rookie Program Invitees Anounced

WEEI has the Red Sox' list of players attending this year's rookie program. The program is half-baseball, half-life, with players learning how to cope with the various issues that come up with working in the MLB. The program is typically reserved for those players the Red Sox expect to see in the majors within the next year or two.

A few things of note. Ryne Miller sneaks in as sort of an organizational sleeper pick after throwing around 100 good innings between Salem and Portland last year, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 97:31 K:BB ratio. Not bad for an undrafted free agent who had an ERA over 5 in '08. The invitation of Casey Kelly speaks to Theo's prediction of his getting on the major league radar fairly soon. Jose Iglesias is attending (along with best bud Luis Exposito), probably as much to help with his cultural transition as professional.

Red Sox Lose Jimenez, Zerpa to Rule 5 Draft

Chris Province Traded for Boof Bonser

Throwing Money at Relievers? Red Sox Could Do Worse Than Matt Capps

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:00:29 -0000

by Charles Cherney - AP

7 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches the ninth inning and gets the save as the Pirates beat the Chicago White Sox 4-3 in a baseball game Sunday, May 24, 2009, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Cherney)

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In case anyone hadn't noticed, the Red Sox' approach to building their 2010 bullpen has been, by-and-large, to throw as many guys as possible at it and see what sticks. To this point in the offseason, they've acquired 5 guys to fill possibly as few as 1 spot:

Scott Atchison, who at 33-years-old has spent all of 3 seasons and 68 innings in the MLB, spending the rest of his time in the minors or Japan.

Ramon A. Ramirez, who only managed a 4.11 ERA starting in AAA last year. Also, that's just gonna make things really confusing.

Fabio Castro, who pitched in the majors 3 years ago and has put up numbers very similar to Ramon A. Ramirez over the intervening years in AAA.

Robert Manuel, who actually posted fairly good numbers over the last couple years in AAA, but has all of 4 innings of major league experience.

And Boof Bonser, who I believe was acquired as part of a cruel practical joke.

Also likely to join this motley cast of characters at camp are names like Dustin Richardson (a converted starter who only pitched 11 innings in AAA last year) and Fernando Cabrera (who recently resigned with the team).

So, if this is how the Red Sox are going to try and solve their bullpen, why not add another name to the list: Matt Capps.

Now, it's usually not a good sign when a player's resume includes "non-tendered by the Pittsburgh Pirates", but for Capps that is the case. As a result of Capps' being non-tendered, he is now a free agent able to negotiate with any team he so chooses. On the surface, he may seem like a non-commodity, given his 5.80 ERA coming out of the pen. But a deeper look shows that he's worth at least as much of a shot as Boof Bonser.

To start with, there's the career 3.61 ERA. He has been good in the past--very good, in fact. In 2008 he posted a 3.02 ERA. He did even better in 2007, with a remarkable 2.28. So what caused the sudden collapse, and is it indicative of a problem with Capps himself?

The short answer is no. The most obvious number that will jump off the page to anyone is the .370 BABIP against him. That is a ridiculous number, especially given the fact that his line drive percentage against went down by nearly 5 points. He also gave up fewer fly balls, going from 46% to 40.7%. All this, of course, went to ground balls, which rose from 31.1% to 40.7%. This should speak to hitters making less solid contact against Capps, instead clipping the balls and driving them into the ground. Which makes his greatly inflated HR/FB numbers (from 6.8% to 13.5%) even harder to explain. Maybe it was just that when he threw a bad pitch, he threw a really bad pitch. But more likely, it seems as if Capps just got unlucky.

The other problem with this year were his walk rates. Now, while 2.82 BB/9 is actually pretty good, it's definitely high for Capps, who gave up less than 1 walk per 9 innings in 2008 and 1.82 in 2007. Again, though, there doesn't seem to be an obvious reason why his walks increased. In 2009, compared to 2008, opposing hitters swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, a lower percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, made more contact outside the zone (again, makes one wonder how that BABIP was so high with such mediocre contact being made) and less contact inside the zone. Between 2008 and 2009, Capps went from 56.6 percent pitches thrown in the zone to 55.3 percent--hardly enough to explain such a leap.

For a team that's clearly unsure what they're doing with much of their pen, to the point where they're signing never-will-be's by the handful, Matt Capps should be an obvious target. He may fly under the radar thanks to his unimpressive 2009 numbers, but anyone who digs deeper will find a good pitcher hampered by bad luck despite sticking to the same process that made him a top reliever in years past. If Capps is looking for a contract befitting his peripherals, than perhaps it's best to pass him over in favor of smaller gambles. But if that market fails to develop, then the Red Sox should be first in line to sign him up.

Don't Overlook Holes In The Red Sox's Bullpen

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Who's going to help set this guy up in 2010?

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While people debate who should play left field for the Red Sox in 2010 (it's a heated discussion if you haven't jumped in on it yet), there are still other problems to be solved.

One is who will play third base if Mike Lowell is traded. Perhaps that is the biggest issue after the left field question mark, but No. 2 is important as well: who's going to be in the bullpen next season?

Sure, talking about bullpen arms isn't sexy like talking about power-hitting left fielders. But it's an important factor in the equation. After all, the effectiveness of the Red Sox's bullpen last season was one of the reasons they made it into the playoffs. The Red Sox's core six relievers -- Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito -- combined for a 3.07 earned run average in 363.1 innings.

Now, however, one of those relievers is gone (Saito), one proved very ineffective toward the end of the season (Delcarmen), one began to crumble underneath his workload (Ramirez) and Billy Wagner, who was a late-season acquisition, is calling Atlanta his new home.

With the Red Sox's current roster, here are the locks for the bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon, closer
Daniel Bard
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen

Let's say the Red Sox go with 12 pitchers on the roster, with seven of those coming in the bullpen. Right now the Sox are looking at two empty bullpen spots. Looking at internal options, who fills the spots?

Scott Atchison
A recent acquisition, Atchison provides more depth. And if the Sox have him on their Opening Day roster, he either a) blew the team away in spring training or b) there's plenty of injuries. The latter is more likely. So, if Atchison is in one of these two spots, we better hope it's because he's fantastic in the spring.

Boof Bonser
Bonser is the most likely candidate as he can both start and relieve. If Bonser is on the Red Sox's Opening Day roster, it will most likely be in a long reliever type role. If the Sox are getting blown out -- or better yet, blowing a team out -- Bonser can come out of the 'pen and pitch some good innings. It will also make for an easy transition if he needs to start any games.

Michael Bowden
Bowden is in an interesting stage right now. He's proven he can play in Triple-A. He's ready for something bigger and better than that, but he hasn't had much success at the Major League level. He also hasn't had a lot of time to prove himself, either. The Red Sox don't have a spot in the starting rotation for him, but he could fill a Bonser-like role if he wants to be a long reliever. The Red Sox could also try and convert him to a reliever if need be. Bowden wants to stick in the bigs; this may be the best way for him to do that.

Fernando Cabrera
Cabrera was quite dominate for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009. He struck out nearly one batter per inning while opponents hit just .208 against him. His WHIP was a nifty little 1.12 in 55.1 innings. His callup to Boston, though, didn't go as well. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings, but he did strike out eight batters. Small sample size doesn't sway in his favor, but the 28 year old still can offer the Sox a decent bullpen arm.

Fabio Castro
Castro is historically a starter, but could see bullpen action -- if the Red Sox get desperate. He doesn't struck out many batters, but he walks a lot. Oh, and he gives up a lot of hits, too. So basically, he's not going to do much for the Sox unless he can figure out those three problems first.

Ramon A. Ramirez
The other Ramon Ramirez. RamRam II has a great history against lefties -- a .218 batting average against in more than 270 innings -- but that might be the only thing he has going for him. He's a decent arm but like Atchison, shouldn't sniff the bullpen unless there are some serious issues already.

Dustin Richardson
Perhaps the sleeper of the group, Richardson made his name in 2009. After a rough 2008 season (he racked up a 6.33 ERA in 106.2 innings of work for Double-A Portland), Richardson came out and made easy work of his competition last season. He struck out 80 in 63.1 innings to start the year in Portland before a promotion to Pawtucket. He worked just 10.2 innings in Pawtucket, but he allowed just two runs and struck out 17. Between Portland and Pawtucket, he held batters to a .191 batting average against. He had a cup of coffee late in the season for the Red Sox (he gave up three hits and a walk in 3.1 innings). Perhaps the impressive 2009 will get Richardson a foot in the door come February.

The names aren't sexy, but they have arms that could potentially work within the Red Sox's bullpen. Of course, these are only internal options. We haven't looked at the external options yet, which don't give off many good vibes either.

What do you think? If you had to choose one of these internal options to be in the Red Sox's bullpen, who would you pick? Would you rather have an experienced pitcher like a Cabrera or Atchison, or a younger arm like Richardson? Should the Sox look in free agency rather than these internal options? Are there any trades you'd like to see the Sox make?

Poll

If you had to choose one internal option for the Red Sox's bullpen, who would it be?

Minor League Update -- 11/09/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:34:06 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Remember Javier Lopez? Turns out he's a free agent.

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The Over The Monster top prospects list should start being compiled fairly soon. We'll be using reader voting again, with a slightly different format which should make it so that "write ins" aren't necessary.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 3-8, 2B -- .286/.324/.429

-Expo's numbers just keep on improving since the bad start.

Jose Iglesias: 2-8, HR, K -- .222/.286/.378

-Again some pop out of Iglesias. His bat is clearly a work in progress, and he needs to work on plate patience BIG TIME (4 out of 5 at bats last game were 1-pitch at bats. The other was a strikeout. Though he did record RBIs on 3 of 5, so it's worth considering that it might have been somewhat situational.)

Ryan Kalish: 4-9, 2B, 2 BB, K -- .292/.368/.333

-After putting on a surprising power performance during the regular season, it's all but disappeared for Kalish in the fall. I wouldn't worry too much about it, though. It could be fatigue, it could be what he's working on, but he's shown he can smack 20+ out. His emergence as a patient hitter who's gonna get on base a lot is much more important.

Casey Kelly: 0-4, BB, K

-Whoo!

Randor Bierd: 3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K – 5.60 ERA, 12:9 K:BB, 1.19 WHIP

-A poor fall can't be a good sign for Bierd's flickering career.

Richie Lentz: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – 0.77 ERA, 13:2 K:BB, .77 WHIP

-Lentz is putting on quite the show after getting pounded in Portland this year. A dramatic improvement in control (33 BB in 36 IP to 2 in 12) can't hurt.

Chris Province: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 3.12 ERA, 8:4 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – 5.19 ERA, 13:7 K:BB, 1.85 WHIP

-Includes 1 IP, 2 H, 1 K in the Rising Stars game. That inning will not be included in season numbers.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .261/.352/.391 in 46 ABs

Dominican Winter League

Mark Wagner: 1-8, K – .296/.390/.500

-Can't dominate every week.

Jose Capellan: 7.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 0 K – 3.71 ERA, 4:10 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP

-The ERA isn't horrible. But the peripherals...Oh the peripherals.

Sydney Winter League

The brothers Moanaroa and Mitch Dening have been hanging out in Aussie.

Mitch Dening: .500/.600/1.500 in 4 ABs

Boss Moanaroa: .357/.500/.429 in 14 ABs

-Still want to see the power.

Moko Moanaroa: .250/.357/.250

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 1.80 ERA, 4:4 K:BB, 1.40 WHIP

Felix Doubront: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 2.84 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, .95 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – 3.38 ERA, 4:0 K:BB, 1.13 WHIP

List of Red Sox Minor League Free Agents

Edit: I have been correctly called out by poster Chebornek for not crediting SoxProspects.com for having gotten my information for this list from them. It was an oversight, and certainly in no way malicious. SoxProspects.com is a fantastic site and I encourage any and all of Over the Monster's readers to visit it--they're honestly a better resource than I am.

Technically, some of these names aren't minor leaguers, but it's worth noting them separate from the obvious big name guys.

Zach Borowiak

Robert Coello

Nick Green

Derrick Loop

Dave McKae

Iggy Suarez

Good luck to all the free agents in finding somewhere to play—whether back with Boston or elsewhere.

(Javier Lopez is a pretty surprising name, if you ask me.)

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:31:45 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Manny Parra delivers a meatball to the Nationals Sunday.

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Some things to read while streamlining tech support.

There was a brief period of time this weekend where it looked like I'd be writing about a three game winning streak this morning and wondering if the Brewers could get back to .500 later today. Then, Bad Manny showed up and ruined all of that. 63% of the voters in the poll at that link think Parra will never be a productive major league pitcher. I went the other way, because Parra is still pretty young and could put it together, but it seems clear he's unlikely to develop consistency anytime soon.

The Brewers still have a pretty good chance to earn a series victory in Washington, as Yovani Gallardo takes the mound today. He needs 29 more strikeouts this season to become just the fourth Brewer ever to reach 200. He also needs two more wins to become just the third Brewer since the 2000 season to win 13 games.

If you missed it yesterday, and the site stats would suggest you did, TheJay and I both had notes on Prince Fielder: I took a look at the historical significance of Fielder's walks and TheJay speculated on Fielder's potential performance in the Midwest League. Of course after we spent half the day talking about him he went 0-for-4, just the second time in his last 14 games where he's failed to earn his way on base.

The Brewers open a three game series with the Reds tomorrow, and both teams will enter play with their rotation in a state of upheaval. For the Brewers, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush will start on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, making their returns from the DL. The Reds, meanwhile, have yet to name a starter for Wednesday, but it won't be Aaron Harang, who underwent an emergency appendectomy over the weekend and could miss the rest of the season. Kip Wells is the likely candidate to replace him.

A quick side note: Is there such a thing as a non-emergency appendectomy? Why would a surgeon remove your appendix if it wasn't an urgent situation?

Roguejim has a look at the latest Elias rankings, with the Brewers still projected to have one Type A free agent and four Type B's. Felipe Lopez's recent play, though, has pushed him up to the edge of Type A status.

In the minors:

The Timber Rattlers drew 5459 fans to yesterday's game and set a new franchise record for single season attendance. With Brett Lawrie bobblehead day still remaining on their schedule, the Rattlers could surpass 250,000 fans this season.
The Rattlers also have (or, in the case of Brett Lawrie, had) two of the 50 youngest players in Low A ball, according to Project Prospect. Efrain Nieves is the other one.
What the Timber Rattlers don't have, though, is one of the Best Team Names in the Minors, at least according to Wezen-ball. The Brevard County Manatees do, though.

With back to back wins on Friday and Saturday, CoolStandings had upgraded the Brewer playoff chances to 1.8%, but they fell back to .7% with the loss yesterday. If that stat wasn't enough for you, Tyler Maas has ~~ten~~ nine signs your team is falling out of playoff contention.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Armando Benitez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Placed Kyle Lohse on the DL with a strained groin.
Mariners: Released reliever Luis Pena.
Marlins: Placed Brendan Donnelly on the DL with a calf strain.
Mets: Designated infielder Andy Green for assignment.
Phillies: Placed third baseman Greg Dobbs on the DL with a strained calf.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Fernando Cabrera for assignment.
Rockies: Placed Aaron Cook on the DL with shoulder soreness and signed Russ Ortiz and Jason Giambi.

Albert Pujols is batting just .279 since the All Star Game, and (gasp!) his OPS over that time is under 1.000. Clearly, without question, we should abolish the Home Run Derby.

If you're looking to read some in-depth analysis to get your brain working on Monday morning, then reading the Mug was clearly the wrong decision. Instead, you should check out Baseball Analysts' look at batters' decisions to swing at 3-2 pitches, and the possibility they're doing it too often.

On this day in 1993, Kevin Reimer went 6-for-6 as the Brewers beat the A's 7-6 in 13 innings. Reimer also drew an intentional walk to reach base a seventh time.

Happy birthday today to Everett Stull, who appeared in 22 games as a Brewer in 2000 and 2002 and turns 38 today. Happy belated birthdays to Mark DiFelice (33) and Zach Braddock (22), who celebrated their birthdays yesterday.

Oh, and long before he threw the banana, Orlando Hernandez had everyone doing The El Duque.

Drink up.

Game 120: Drew, Lester Secure Sox Sweep over Blue Jays

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 03:05:59 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

4 months ago: Boston Red Sox`s J.D. Drew watches his two-run home run, and second of the game, during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press. Darren Calabrese)

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Final - 8.20.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Boston Red Sox	0	0	1	3	2	0	1	1	0	8	10	0
Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2
WP: Jon Lester (10 - 7) LP: Brett Cecil (5 - 2)

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The Sox' lineup was arguably at full strength for the first time since acquiring Victor Martinez, and it showed as the team scored 8 runs to complete a 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays on the road.

J.D. Drew got the Sox rolling early with a solo homer in the third inning followed with a 2-run shot in the 4^th. He'd single in his next 2 at bats to finish the night 4-4. Martinez also contributed with the long ball, drilling a Shawn Camp sinker deep to right. The Sox took advantage of 3 Toronto defensive miscues as well, including a 2-base error where starter Brett Cecil threw a ball out of play without time having ever been called. Cecil would give up 6 runs, 4 earned, before being chased in the 5^th inning.

Jon Lester came out struggling in the first inning, giving up back to back singles and a walk, loading the bases with 0 outs before getting a double play and a strike out to get out of the inning with only 1 run allowed. From there, he was nearly perfect, giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk over the next 7 innings, recording 5 strikeouts. Fernando Cabrera would close out the game, walking one and striking out Aaron Hill.

The Sox start a pivotal series against the Yankees tomorrow in Fenway while the Rangers get ready to take on the Rays in a battle of Wild Card threats. But perhaps more importantly, the Red Sox welcome back much missed commentator Jerry Remy for the first time in months as he returns to the booth Friday night.

First Half Minors Recap Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 13:00:22 -0000

Portland Sea Dog and top prospect Lars Anderson's slow start has headlined an up-and-down Sea Dogs lineup. Via i225.photobucket.com

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The end of June marks the halfway point in the season for the upper levels of the minor leagues, and the starting point of short-season ball. For the A-level teams (Salem and Greenville), it also represents a fresh start, as the records are reset and the team with the best record to that point is granted a post-season berth. As significant a milestone as this is, it makes sense to use it as a time to look back at the season thus far, and for teams like the Lowell Spinners and GCL Red Sox, the season to come.

At the top of the Red Sox farm system, the Pawtucket Red Sox has been all about the pitching. Filled primarily with insurance guys who would play in case of injuries in the main club, the lineup is solid but largely uninteresting. Early backups Chris Carter and Jeff Bailey provided mostly frustration for Sox fans, and Aaron Bates is a relatively recent addition. The rotation and bullpen, on the other hand, have stolen the show.

Though their torrid starts have slowed some, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden have done everything and more to prove they are ready for the big leagues—particularly Buchholz, whose complete game 1-hitter has highlighted a dominant season. Clay sports a 1.93 ERA, a .172 batting average against, and a 69:22 K:BB ratio which is actually marred by his last 3 games, over which he's given up 10 bases on balls. Bowden, though at first putting up better numbers than even Buchholz, has been brought back to Earth by a 4 inning, 6-run effort to start June off, and a 1 inning disaster giving up six earned runs again. Still, a 3.26 ERA is nothing to sneeze at.

The bullpen has been an unsung treasure for Pawtucket. While the big name in Daniel Bard has left to find his place in the crowded Boston bullpen, he leaves behind a ridiculous 29 strikeouts in 16 innings—one of them immaculate—and a 1.13 ERA.

Picking up the slack are a pair of journeymen castoffs from the Baltimore Orioles in Fernando Cabrera and Rocky Cherry. Cherry's 24:17 K:BB ratio in 33 innings and his WHIP of 1.29 suggest his 1.35 ERA is somewhat lucky, but Cabrera has been nothing but impressive. After struggling with control last year, Cabrera has only walked 11 in 32 innings while striking out 33. His 19 hits bring his WHIP up to a paltry .94.

Other notables in the pen are Hunter Jones, who had an unimpressive stint with Boston during Daisuke's first DL trip, and Javier Lopez who seemed to fall off a cliff after an impressive 2008 campaign and has had trouble even in AAA.

Unfortunately for Pawtucket, the experienced lineup and impressive pitching hasn't quite got them in the postseason yet, sitting 4.5 games back of the perennial powerhouse Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, and a game back in the wild card race.

If Pawtucket is the system's pitching powerhouse, than Portland is where you'll find the offense. Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, and Ryan Kalish are all top-10 prospects in the system with Anderson leading the way, and catcher Mark Wagner has been having a spectacular year offensively and defensively. But where everything seems to be going right for Wagner, the other 3 have all faced growing pains.

Lars Anderson was mired in a well-documented slump resulting in a particularly bad May (.194/.318/.376), and while he seems to've come out of it somewhat in June, his numbers have dipped again somewhat and he's not really outperforming his April numbers by that much. Josh Reddick got off to a fantastic start, clobbering 6 home runs in April en route to a line of .288/.358/.644, but missed all of may with an injury and hasn't found his groove yet. He's yet to hit another home run, and is only hitting .239/.255/.304 on the month. Ryan Kalish is also seeing depressed numbers after a fantastic start. Never really a big-power guy, Kalish put on a show in 32 games in Salem,hitting 5 home runs in 32 games and accruing a .504 slugging percentage. Kalish experienced the typical post-promotion slump, and managed an OPS of only .445 while striking out in around 30% of his plate appearances with Portland in May. Kalish has showed significant signs of improvement, however, posting a .738 OPS in June with a .355 OBP, striking out only 5 times so far.

Wagner has also hit something of a road bump in June, which could be considered regression to the mean for him. A .321/.371/.434 line is by no means disappointing for the month, though, and Wagner still appears to be on the fast track to AAA. The former pitcher is also still throwing out about 70% of base stealers.

Other notables in Portland's lineup include Jorge Jimenez, who has returned to Earth somewhat after a stellar April, Bubba Bell who was recently promoted to Pawtucket, and Argenis Diaz who is in the middle of a very disappointing season and not showing any signs of coming out of it.

The pitching staff in Portland is limited to essentially 2 names: Junichi Tazawa and Felix Doubront. Though both are currently on the DL, these appear to be phantom injuries basically intended to rest the pair for a week or so. Tazawa is currently sporting a 2.92 ERA after getting off to a slow start against the more advanced MiLB competition, and seems to be less walk-happy than a certain countryman of his, keeping his BB/9 below 3 while striking out a tad unde 9 per. Tazawa's ceiling is still questionable, but as of right now there's no reason not to think he can pitch in the majors some day.

Doubront has managed to survive and eke out a 3.19 ERA despite 50 hits and 23 walks in 53 innings. A high strikeout total has contributed to that likely as much as a 1.26 GO:AO ratio, as has a relatively low home run count of 4. Whether he can keep it up or not is definitely in question.

The lack of consistency in the lineup, as well as mediocre contributions from most of the rotation and bullpen has led the Sea Dogs to a 32-36 record, 6.5 games back of the division-leading Connecticut defenders. It seems they're unlikely to improve on it, too, with one of their best batters, Aaron Bates, having been promoted and with Mark Wagner not far behind. Even Tazawa might not be too far from a Pawtucket trip depending on the fates of Buchholz and Bowden. Then again, the big names in the lineup will hopefully not be held down for long, and a resurgent offense could be enough.