SB Nation - Aaron Fultz

Saying Goodbye to the Metrodome: Top 5 Memories

Jesse — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 01:00:23 -0000

What are yours?

Barring a minor miracle, tomorrow night the Minnesota Twins will open their final series in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. 28 baseball seasons ago, on April 6 1982, the first baseball game was held as the Twins played host to the Seattle Mariners. In just a few hours the Kansas City Royals will be baseball's last visitors under teflon skies.

There are a lot of easy memories when you think back. Of course there's the unbelieveable run by the 1987 Twins, when they returned to Minneapolis down three games to two but still took down the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games; Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Tom Brunansky and Frank Viola became household names over night while a 36-year old Bert Blyleven threw a now unthinkable 267 innings. Even more of you might choose the 1991 incarnation of the Twins, starring some of the same characters while also including franchise names like Rick Aguilera, Chili Davis, Brian Harper, Kevin Tapani, Shane Mack, Scott Erickson and Jack Morris; Puckett's homer in game six and ten innings of shutout baseball by Morris in game seven. Or maybe you were there for the alpha, for a 102-loss team with 22-year olds Herbie and Viola? How about the completion of one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the organization, when the team won the AL Central title after the final out of their season was recorded in 2006?

I'm too young for some of these, at least to remember them properly. My top five metrodome memories will all be from games where I was actually there; when I was actually sitting in those horribly placed seats, under a dirty yellow sky. Check out my top five after the jump, and then feel free to share your own.

Five

This one isn't even baseball. In high school I was lucky enough to be part of a team that made the state playoffs for football. Two consecutive seasons I got to play at least one game on the turf of the Dome, the same turf as Puck and Hrbek and Radke, the same turf as Anthony Carter and John Randle and Randall McDaniel, as a member of the Breckenridge Cowboys in November of '95 and '96.

Four

On June 22, 1992, my family made a trip to the Cities for a vacation away from Greater Minnesota, and I saw my first Twins game. The Angels were in town. We arrived early enough to watch the guys warm up in the outfield, and I can still remember how in awe of them I was. They were just a few feet from me, in the flesh--real, live people, not on television. Kent Hrbek wasn't in the lineup that day, but I still got to see Knobby and Kirby. Knoblauch singled in the first, stole second base and eventually would score on a Chili Davis single. In the seventh Brian Harper walked, Pedro Munoz doubled moving him to third, and two batters later Harper scored on a Greg Gagne sac fly to make it 2-0. That was the final score, the Twins winning my first ever game on the back of those two runs and 8.1 innings of scoreless ball thrown by John Smiley. Aggy got the save, of course.

Three

I went to a Twins - Blue Jays tilt with my friend Mike on June 22, 2007. There were four drunk Jays fans in front of us, and honestly I don't even remember what the score was, although I do know the Twins won. Why? Because all I can remember is this:

Why did I take this picture, you ask? Why wouldn't I take this picture. Nasty.

Two

I got goosebumps when I saw Johan Santana pick up his 1000th strikeout on June 13, 2006, as I went to a game to see myself in Dugout Splinters for the very first time and to catch a game with some friends a couple days before my birthday. But while Johan more than did his job, striking out 13 over eight innings while allowing just five hits, he couldn't hold the Boston Red Sox scoreless. Jason Varitek's line drive home run to center field put Boston up 1-0, and the Twins would only manage to tie the game on a Michael Cuddyer homer in the bottom half of the inning. Santana left the game tied, and it wasn't solved until Jason Kubel decided to make Julian Tavarez pay for intentionally walking Torii Hunter to get to him. With the bases loaded and the count full, Kubel took Tavarez deep for a walk-off grand slam home run. It. Was. Amazing.

One

On April 5, 2004, Opening Day, I watched as the Twins slowly sunk to a four-run deficit through six innings at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. Brad Radke struggled early, giving up a second inning homer to Travis Hafner and a third inning homer to Jody Gerut, before settling down for the next couple innings. He gave up another solo shot to Hafner in the top of the sixth, and there wasn't any life in the Twins' offense, which had managed just one hit (a single by Shannon Stewart to lead off the bottom of the first) off CC Sabathia over seven innings. But then came the bottom of the eighth.

Joe Mauer walked to lead things off, and Christian Guzman followed that up with a single before the top of the order cylced around and Stewart moved both runners up on a ground out. Cuddyer followed with a hard liner to center, scoring both runs, and was moved to third base on a Doug Mientkiewicz single. Corey Koskie was sitting dead red on a 2-2 pitch and drove it into the left-center gap for a ground-rule double, scoring Cuddyer to maker it 4-3, before Hunter singled to tie the game and finish the scoring for the inning. Jacque Jones and Matt LeCroy struck out to end the rally.

Then all went silent once more.

via www.minorleagueballparks.com

J.C. Romero, Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon combined for three scoreless innings. Aaron Fultz and Joe Roa had already combined for two of their own, but those three bridge us to the bottom of the 11th. Jones struck out again, for the fourth time in four at-bats. LeCroy managed to squeeze out a walk, and was replaced on the bases by Nick Punto. Mauer pulled a hard shot into right field, allowing Punto to take third on the one out single. Guzman struck out for the second out of the inning. Alertly, Mauer took second base on defensive indifference with Stewart now at the dish, giving the Indians the option of intentionally walking Stewart to face Cuddyer. Chad Durbin and the Indians decided to go after him, and Shannon repaid them by smashing a line drive home run into the left field seats, about four rows in front of where I was sitting. The crowd went absolutely berserk, and I'm pretty sure Mike and I were already nomiating Stewart for MVP on the back of his strong showing with the Twins in 2003.

This, of course, was also Joe Mauer's very first game with the Minnesota Twins. I studied him closely before the game started, warming up with Brad Radke in the bullpen. There appeared nothing unusual, he wasn't wearing bling and he wasn't acting up and he didn't strut. He just squatted down, held out his glove and let Brad warm up. From moment one Joe was all business, even when his name was announced (hitting eighth, by the way) and the crowd rained down applause like they already knew he was Baby Joe Jesus. That in itself almost qualifies as another memory, seperate from the game, that I will always remember.

What about you?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:05:11 -0000

Some things to read while everyone else is writing about the same thing.

I banged my head on my desk a few times this morning after reading this post from Tom H. which acknowledges the possibility that Mike Lamb and Tony Gwynn Jr. could start the season on the roster while Casey McGehee (who still has an option) and Chris Duffy (in camp on a minor league deal) are sent to AAA.

I get the premise: Stockpiling talent is a good thing, throwing it away is to be avoided if possible. But neither Lamb nor Gwynn are exceptional talents. Gwynn was below average in AAA each of the last two seasons and Lamb has been little more than a below average corner infielder for years now. Keeping them on the roster in place of players who could perform the same duties with a higher upside is like walking past a dollar on the sidewalk because your pockets are already full of pennies.

Meanwhile, Trot Nixon is playing his way out of camp and the Brewers have let him know he may not have a job in AAA either. (Also noted in FanShot) Nixon has played in 20 games this spring, hitting .105/.227/.211 in 38 at bats.

Speaking of players who aren't showing much this spring, if Trevor Hoffman isn't ready to start the regular season, David Riske will not be his replacement. Seth McClung is the pick over at View From Bernie's Chalet. He thinks the Brewers should take this opportunity to see if McClung can close next season, when Hoffman will likely be gone.

Regardless of how McClung starts the season, at least he knows he'll get to play somewhat regularly. Tom H. has a profile of Mike Rivera, who discusses what it was like to sit on the bench for weeks on end, including the Brewers' last 34 games in 2008.

I'm sure some Brewer fans wish Jeff Suppan would sit for weeks on end, too, but they're bound to be disappointed. With the announcement that Braden Looper will start on Thursday, Ken Macha implied that Jeff Suppan will be on the mound when the Brewers open the regular season on April 7. (Also noted in FanShot) Keeping Suppan in the #1 spot would mean the Brewers will pitch Suppan, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra against the Giants, then Looper, Dave Bush and Suppan again against the Cubs.

Yovani Gallardo didn't have a great day on the mound yesterday, allowing six runs in five innings, but there is one encouraging note to pass along: Gallardo was scheduled for 90 pitches yesterday but threw 98, meaning he's pretty close to being fully stretched out.

On previews, rankings and projections:

Batter's Box Interactive has twelve questions about the NL Central, and wants to know what to expect from Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan. Don't we all?
David Chalk of Bugs & Cranks has a Brewers/Rays comparison that likely isn't actually worth your time.
The Scores Report predicts the Brewers will finish third.
MLB Outsider ranks Ryan Braun as MLB's third best left fielder.

Jeremy Jeffress throws 100 mph and has quickly climbed the ladder to Huntsville in the Brewer farm system. He's also been suspended for smoking marijuana and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. As a result, it's probably no surprise that Jeffress is included in Dugout Central's list of hyped pitching prospects likely to fail.

Another day, another economics story: The Brewers have now filed three lawsuits in five days against businesses and suiteholders who owe them payments for the 2009 season.

In other camps:

Astros: Cecil Cooper thinks the Astros can win 90 games this season.
Dodgers: Shawn Estes will remain with the team and work to make the transition to the bullpen.
Giants: Returned West Bend native and Brewer killer Ryan Rohlinger to minor league camp.
Marlins: Cleared the final hurdle yesterday in securing financing for their new stadium, and could break ground yet this summer.
Padres: Signed Shawn Hill to a minor league deal.
Rays: Returned Rule 5 pick Derek Rodriguez to the White Sox. Also, B.J. Upton is unlikely to be ready to start the regular season after taking a pitch off his hand in a minor league game.
Reds: Released Daryle Ward and Aaron Fultz.

It's good news and bad news with Nate McLouth this spring. As The Book Blog notes, he appears to understand the sabermetrics of base stealing, but is completely lost on fielding metrics.

Can one get The Book on tape? If so, Alfonso Soriano and all of his neighbors could listen to it on his ridiculous car stereo.

Denard Span will have to settle for a smaller stereo after paying his fine for sloppy pants-wearing.

As we've mentioned previously, Corey Koskie retired this week, ending his attempted return from post concussion syndrome. Minor League Ball takes a look at his unlikely career.

Finally, despite the fact that he was 42 years old, hadn't pitched in over a year and was unsigned for 2009, it was big news yesterday when Curt Schilling announced his retirement. The news was so big, in fact, that ESPN didn't even have time to make sure they weren't showing a picture of Jose Canseco instead.

Drink up.

Reds at Yankees: Eyewitness Report

BK — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:11:24 -0000

Back from Steinbrenner. The highlights:

Steinbrenner Field was an interesting place. It had the feel of a big-league ballpark there, unless Ed Smith and even Bright House. And that's not necessarily a positive thing.
There were tons of people there. Tons. Traffic getting to the stadium was a mess, it took forever to actually get in, and trying to get out was worse then Bengals traffic. And this is for SPRING TRAINING games.
The fans there were... interesting. I had a seat in the front row of the upper deck, so I got to see a lot of people walk by. The Steinbrenner Field clientele can be summed up by the fact that most of them belong on this website.
The ratio of attractive females at Steinbrenner to Ed Smith was about 10:1.
The fans there made me glad to be a Reds fan. BubbaFan, how do you deal with those people going to Yankee games? There was a guy that walked by (and I mentioned this in the twitter, if you were following...) that said "Jeter is better than any Reds player ever". Ever, he says. And he wasn't the only one. When Berroa made a bad play at SS, another guy yelled "Jeter, you suck!" before his drunken buddy corrected him, and the only A-Rod talk I heard the entire day was another guy who kept on yelling at "A-Rod" at 3rd (I guess he got the numbers mixed up, 12 and 13 are pretty close together).
Oh yeah, there was a baseball game too. Dickerson looked good at the plate, and Hanigan is hitting the cover off the ball right now. Those two had 4 of the 6 Reds hits.
The answer to the million dollar question: Alex Gonzalez should be the Opening Day shortstop, barring any other setbacks. His range was noticeably better than Keppinger's yesterday, and he made a great sliding stop to start a double play.
Edwin looked fine too, on D. Made a great diving stop, and although he didn't have enough time to throw the guy out, he saved a double from happening with that stop.
Nix keeps hitting the ball hard, but right at guys.
As far as OF defense goes, Bruce had a great throw to get a guy at 2nd trying to stretch a double, and Jacque Jones almost robbed Duncan's HR. He jumped, and it looked like the ball bounced right off his glove over the wall.
Masset didn't look great. When I saw Owings, I noticed how well he was pitching, and I didn't get that feeling with Masset. Kind of like when Matt Belisle pitched. It's a crime that this guy is still getting a shot at the rotation, but I guess that'll change with Volquez and Cueto coming back.
Fultz and Weathers both turned in pretty normal innings.
Jordan Smith just looked overmatched. I don't think it's anything to worry about, because he should be in minor-league camp anyway, but he's not there yet.

As always, pics after the jump...

The opposition.

Name that dugout line!

Masset warming up.

Such a sigh of relief to be able to see this picture.

Dickerson after hitting a triple.

Bruuuuuuuuuuce.

I can't remember who this was. Either BP or Edwin, I think.

Aaron Fultz.

Jordan Smith warming up before his inning of suckitude.

Carlos Fisher standing tall.

Boooooo.

Reds hold ground with havoc, walk-off with a grand win, 10-6

Slyde — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 21:17:05 -0000

The Reds used havoc to their advantage today, and it paid off in the end.

First Brandon Phillips doubled in the 2nd and was advanced on a ground out and scored on a sacrifice fly. Small ball getting it done.
Then, in the 7th inning, Jonny Gomes was hit by pitch and advanced to third on an errant pick-off throw. He scored on a sacrifice fly. Manufacturing runs is where it's at! Side note: Jonny Gomes is doing everything he can to make this team. I'd say the Dickerson-Gomes platoon is looking pretty solid so far. The only thing in question is whether Jerry Hairston will bump one of them if Alex Gonzalez is healthy enough to play SS.
In the 10th, Chris Valaika doubled, Drew Stubbs walked, and Danny Richar sacrificed them up a base. After an intentional walk to Kevin Barker, Todd Frazier singled everybody up a base to tie the game at 6. Scrap-o-rific!
They also scored on a two-run double by Laynce Nix and a SOLO home run by Kevin Barker, but those runs hardly even count since they didn't really work for them.
Oh yeah, and Darnell McDonald hit the Reds 4th grand slam of the Spring, a walk-off job to give the Reds a 10-6 victory.
The bullpen managed to lose multi-run leads for the Reds two different times, and Ben Jukich didn't do much for his chances of making the squad. He surrendered 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk over 2 innings pitched.
Sam Lecure, Aaron Fultz, and Josh Roenicke also surrendered a run, nearly canceling out the positive value of today's havoc. Roenicke dodged his second loss of the season, and actually ended up with a win. He needs to start pitching a little better or we're going to be forced to make up numbers to justify a roster spot for him.
And Nick Masset pitched okay, I guess. Stupid jerk.
David Weathers had a 1-2-3 inning. Clearly it was an impostor.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game goes to Darnell McDonald. Oh sure he struck out his first two times up to bat, but the dude hit a walk-off grand slam. He's like Adam Dunn or something.

Reds run themselves off the bases, lose 2-1 to the Pirates

Slyde — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 20:47:01 -0000

It's tough to tell how well a game is played when you don't have any audio or video to back it up, but for a 2-1 game, this one looks like a real stinker.

If the story of the day is not Homer Bailey, it has to be among the main plot points. Some might say that it's just the Pirates, but last time I checked they were a team the Reds lost to 9 times last year in 15 games. Bailey has now struck out 6 batters in 4 innings this Spring while only allowing 2 base runners (1 hit, 1 walk). The ball is now in Micah Owings' court.
The bullpen looked pretty good, with solid outings from Mike Lincoln, Ron Flores, and Daniel Ray Herrera. Aaron Fultz gave up a hit and two walks, allowing a run in the 6th. That can't help his chances of joining a bullpen that really only has one open spot up for play. Josh Roenicke was hurt by a catcher's interference that extended the inning in the 8th and ultimately led to the winning run for the Pirates.
The offense didn't do much today. Brandon Phillips doubled in the fourth and was brought around on a ground out and sac fly by Edwin Encarnacion and Jonny Gomes respectively for the Reds only run.
Laynce Nix, Kevin Barker, and Paul Janish each added doubles as well, not that it mattered much.
Team Havoc continues to drive me bonkers. They made three more outs on the base paths today, two on steal attempts and Janish was thrown out at home plate in the 8th. The base running mistakes are starting to get laughable.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game goes to Homer Bailey. He takes home a 50lb bag of venison and a tub of Montgomery Inn BBQ sauce.

The Reds are now 3-3 on the Spring. Tomorrow they try to avenge their 16-5 loss to the Red Sox.

Who should we keep an eye on in Spring Training?

BK — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 13:00:10 -0000

With spring training just a few days away, it seems like a lot of the questions about the 25-man roster for Opening Day have been answered. However, there are a few spots up for grabs, so we have a few guys for each spot that we should be keeping an eye on. First, the players who I think definitely have a spot on the big league team locked up (barring injuries):

Hernandez (Starting C)
Hanigan (Backup C)
Votto (Starting 1B)
Phillips (Starting 2B)
Encarnacion (Starting 3B)
Taveras (Starting CF)
Bruce (Starting RF)
Harang (Rotation)
Arroyo (Rotation)
Volquez (Rotation)
Cueto (Rotation)
Cordero (Closer)
Weathers (Relief)
Rhodes (Relief)
Lincoln (Relief)
Burton (Relief)
Bray (Relief)
Hairston (Utility)
Keppinger (Infield)
Gonzalez (Infield)

As for the last three guys, Hairston definitely makes the roster, but where he plays is anyone's guess at this point. Keppinger in all likelihood will be starting two days a week at an infield spot, while coming off the bench otherwise. Gonzalez makes the team in some capacity if he's healthy, based on the way the Reds value his defensive reputation. One of those guys will start at SS, so that's covered. That's 20 spots, leaving 5 more on the 25 man roster. Let's look at the spots up for grabs:

Starting LF

Favorite: Dickerson

Also in consideration: Hopper, Gomes, Jones

Dickerson gets the nod here, based off of his season last year. As long as he doesn't screw up in spring training, I think the spot is his. If he doesn't perform, either Hopper or Gomes will probably start there, and Hairston could see some time there as well. Jones is on the list because with you never know with Dusty, but realistically, I don't think he makes it. That makes 21.

4th OF

Favorite: Hopper

Also in consideration: Gomes, Jones, Stubbs, Nix

I think Hopper makes it no matter what as a backup outfielder at the very least. I don't see them sending him to AAA, and I honestly think he could thrive in this 4th OF role. He'll come in handy in bunting and pinch running situations. I think Gomes' big bat also makes him a worthy candidate for a pinch hitting role, but he's the one on a minor league contract. Stubbs and Nix could be considered if they have great spring trainings, but neither one of them will probably start right away if they made it. It's more likely that Stubbs starts in AAA to play everyday while there isn't a starting spot available in Cincinnati, and Nix goes to AAA as an insurance outfielder, kind of like Hairston/Cabrera did last year. And, if Jacque Jones makes the roster over any of those people, we can throw away the 2009 season.

5th Starter

Favorite: Owings

Also in consideration: Bailey, Maloney, Masset, Thompson, Ramirez

This will be one of the more interesting position battles to watch. Owings is the slight favorite here, but I'm not sure why. Almost any of these guys could take the job with a strong ST, so any start not made by one of the 4 rotation guys will be very important the the makeup of the team.

That puts the roster at 23, with 11 pitchers and 12 position players. I'd think they'd go with one more of each.

7th Bullpen Spot

Favorite: Masset

Also in consideration: Roenicke, Ramirez, Bailey, Herrera, Fisher, Fultz, Flores

I think that Masset gets the nod here. He can spot start if necessary, has (semi-)successful major league experience, and I think will have an edge being the guy the Reds traded Junior for. If an injury happens, or if Masset struggles in ST, Roenicke is next in line, and I think we'll see him sooner than we did last year. The other guys all have an excellent shot at being in the big league bullpen this season, with the exception of Bailey, who when he gets another shot will probably start.

That rounds out the pitching staff. One more bat off the bench...

Mr. Irrelevant

Favorite: Gomes

Also in consideration: Castillo, Richar, Rosales, Ward, Nix

For me, this was a coin flip between Gomes and Wilkin, and I think it could have went either way. Castillo can catch and play infield, which is a big bonus, but I figured we have enough infielders and no real power threat off the bench, so I'm going with Gomes. I think Richar and Ward are probably next in line.

So there's my 25 man roster, with Dickerson, Hopper, Owings, Masset, and Gomes being my final 5. Anybody you think doesn't deserve to be on the first list of 20? Who are your final 5?

Pitcher Profile: Carl Pavano

Kyle Boddy — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 06:50:54 -0000

Carl Pavano

#0 / Pitcher / Cleveland Indians

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

Let's get a few things out of the way:

That picture is hilarious.
Carl Pavano was hurt a lot.
Pavano has serious questions about his commitment to strength and conditioning.
I'm an Indians fan.

Now that we have those points out of the way, we can start to analyze Pavano's mechanics. The only reference to his mechanics on the Internet was Mike Pagliarulo's article on Dugout Central. (Note how BJ Ryan tops the list.) Mike mentioned that Pavano has problems "leaking the front side" and "balance position over the rubber." What? He doesn't go into much detail, but he does talk about "leaking the front side" - it is apparently when the front side opens too early and causes the pitching shoulder and arm to "speed up," making him a big injury risk. I actually agree with this quite a bit, and I think it helps to explain the frequent shoulder injuries that Rich Harden experiences. It's something I'll track and research a bit more. (This will probably fall under the "Arm Action" phase of my analysis.)

However, I spot other problems in Pavano's delivery that make him at-risk for injury. Take a look at this unrelated image from NoMaas:

Alright, that was uncalled for. Let's actually do some work...

Per Fangraphs, we can see that Pavano lost velocity on all of his pitches in 2008:

Season	Team	FB	SL	CB	CH	SF	XX	PO
Total *	- - -	63.1% (89.0)	13.1% (81.3)	0.1% (75.7)	17.2% (80.3)	6.4% (81.3)	0.9%	0.4%
2005	Yankees	63.5% (89.4)	11.2% (82.9)	0.1% (75.5)	18.0% (80.6)	7.2% (82.5)	0.9%	0.6%
2007	Yankees	74.5% (90.7)	8.1% (82.1)		17.4% (81.0)		2.0%
2008	Yankees	59.1% (87.9)	19.6% (79.7)	0.2% (76.0)	15.1% (79.5)	6.0% (78.9)	0.5%

R.J. Anderson (of Beyond the Box Score) wrote at Fangraphs that Pavano's swinging strike totals were similar to 2005, indicating that his stuff has held up over the years, even if his shoulder hasn't.

Here's a pitching clip from 2008 vs. Tampa Bay:

You can see what Mike P. was talking about when Pavano "leaks the front side" - he opens his shoulder a bit early, even if he does keep equal and opposite arms.

I see very small signs of Hyperabduction, but strangely enough I see something related to Mike's analysis that might explain the shoulder problems he suffered. Take a look at the frames when Pavano "swims" his glove arm back, forcibly loading the scapula. Not only does this "leak the front side," but it will stress the anterior portion of the shoulder. It is plainly obvious that this is not a "passive" load of the scapula - it is forced.

Tempo: 21-22 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Just slightly Below Average. What's more troubling is the fact that Pavano is a "tall-and-fall" pitcher; he simply lifts his leg and puts it back down without drifting through the balance point like most successful pitchers (Lincecum is the gold standard).

Arm Action: Like I said above, Pavano uses a swim move with his glove to load his scapula in a forced abduction pattern. I don't like this. Furthermore, he is late at footstrike - his pitching forearm barely clears his shoulders when his shoulders begin to turn, which probably explains the elbow troubles he's had. Very Bad.

Ball Release: Pretty decent, actually. There's no question that Pavano has intent to throw hard, but the steps leading up to the release phase are what causes him problems. Still, he bends over at the waist - I prefer pitchers to think "stand tall and rotate," which is a Dr. Marshall cue. I want them to stick their pitching arm shoulder into the catcher's mitt. Average.

Followthrough: Bad. I see a lot of Max Scherzer in Pavano's followthrough - he hangs his arm and doesn't firm up his glove side against his shoulder in the deceleration phase. This can cause additional stress on the anterior and posterior portions of Pavano's shoulder.

Still, Pavano's delivery is not that stressful - at least not to cause the litany of random injuries he's suffered. Strained buttocks and cracked ribs that kept him from pitching entirely in 2006? UCL rupture after pitching in spring training and nothing else? There are tons of third-hand reports of him eating candy bars and lounging around the Yankees clubhouse, doing nothing while being unable to throw - and enjoying the experience. These are pretty serious allegations - even Mike Mussina jumped on his back, telling Pavano that he had to "get tough" and that other Yankees teammates were not a fan of Pavano's indifference to physical conditioning.

I think that Carl Pavano has serious question marks about his dedication to conditioning, something that the Indians no doubt understood - signing him to a $1.5m guaranteed contract with an assured spot in the starting rotation. Jay from Let's Go Tribe broke the deal down like this:

1-17 starts — 1.5M
18-19 starts — 1.6M
20-21 starts, <130 IP — 1.7M
20-21 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.8M
22-23 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.9M
24-25 starts, 140-149 IP — 2.2M
26-27 starts, 150-159 IP — 2.5M
28-29 starts, 160-169 IP — 2.85M
30-31 starts, 170-179 IP — 3.25M
30-31 starts, 180-189 IP — 3.45M
32 starts, 190-199 IP — 4.0M
33 starts, 200-214 IP — 4.6M
33 starts, 215-224 IP — 4.9M
34 starts, 225-234 IP — 5.65M
35 starts, 235+ IP — 6.55M

The only problem with the deal I see is the guaranteed slot in the rotation. There's no reason to believe that Pavano is any better than Scott Lewis, Zach Jackson, Aaron Laffey, or Jeremy Sowers, or... hmm. Actually, that's a load of fringy pitchers, many of whom have had shots at the big league and have failed to impress. (Please spare me Scott Lewis' performance at the end of 2008.)

Overall, I think the deal is fine for the Indians. It's a typical Mark Shapiro move - sign a veteran who is considered to be washed up and see if they can get anything out of him. It worked with Aaron Fultz, and uh... Joe Borowski... and not too many others. Still, the point is that these deals cost basically nothing in money and roster space (they can be released painlessly) for a shot at some serious upside. Remember when the Big Hurt was "washed up" and then went to Oakland for the first time?

As a parting note, did anyone know that Eric Mangini is Mark Shapiro's brother-in-law? I didn't, but I'm not much of a Browns fan.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 16:06:02 -0000

Surprise! The Mug isn't taking today off after all. The weather altered my travel plans a bit, so I've got time to gather links one more time before the holiday. Enjoy.

As noted in the FanShots, the JS and on the Official Site, the Brewers are talking with Braden Looper about joining the club. At one point, sources said the two sides were "close," but Melvin quickly backed down from that. Rumor has it Looper is also talking to the Orioles, so they can't be that close.

Elsewhere, the CHONE Projections for pitchers are up. Would you have guessed Mark DiFelice would project as the second-best Brewer reliever? Me either.

Both are still free agents in a market that seems to be closing down, so which would you rather have, Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe? The Diamond Cutter takes a look at the argument. Both, of course, would be preferable to Jarrod Washburn.

It's a one line note and it may or may not be worth anything, but the Chicago Tribune (via the Charlotte Observer) is reporting the Brewers may still consider sending J.J. Hardy to the Twins for young pitching.

How does one define a baseball IQ? After a little diatribe on the irrelevance of the actual IQ, Don Ehrke of Dugout Central takes a look at some of the skills involved, and Jason Kendall shows up on all three charts. Some of those charts share a few inputs with previously published GRIT measurements, though.

Via MLB Trade Rumors, Peter Gammons is reporting the Yankees lost interest in the Mike Cameron trade because Melky Cabrera is showing better plate discipline in winter ball. If a sample size that small can convince them to change their mind on a player, someone should send them video of Chad Moeller hitting for the cycle.

On minor notes: Unless you and 100 of your friends stop by and vote for Angel Salome in the next couple of hours, Jeremy Jeffress will win the voting for #3 prospect in our Community Prospect Rankings. Voting will close at noon today and the nominees for #4 will be posted next Monday.

On the hot stove:

Angels: Have reportedly taken their 8 year, $160 million offer to Mark Teixiera off the table.
A's: Placed Bobby Crosby on outright waivers over the weekend, but he went unclaimed. They're also talking to Jason Giambi.
Braves: Re-signed Greg Norton to a one year deal.
Mariners: Have offered a split major/minor league deal to R.A. Dickey, and are waiting to hear back.
Nationals: Signed former Oriole Daniel Cabrera for $2.6 million.
Orioles: Have reportedly offered Mark Teixiera the highest annual salary, but may not be willing to go eight years.
Padres: Re-signed Jody Gerut to a one year deal.
Pirates: Signed Ryan Doumit to a three year deal, buying out his arbitration years.
Rays: Sold 1B Dan Johnson to the Yokohama BayStars of Japan.
Reds: Signed LHP Aaron Fultz to a one year deal.
Yankees: CC Sabathia's contract calls for him to be paid bi-monthly year round, instead of the normal in-season payments. They may also be close to signing Manny Ramirez to a three year, $75 million deal.

I'm planning on calling today to see if I'll get the MLB Network in my neighborhood. They're planning on airing Ken Burns' Baseball on Tuesday nights.

If you're looking for work in baseball, though, this isn't good news: Major League Baseball has initiated a hiring freeze and is taking 20% of its employees' vacation time in 2009.

Maybe he thinks there will be more openings next season? Bobby Valentine will reportedly part ways with his Japanese team following the 2009 season.

Oh, and be nice to the bio majors.

Drink up. I'll be back a week from today. Enjoy the holidays.