SB Nation - Joe Borowski

Pecota '08: The Pitchers

afh4 — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 04:27:32 -0000

Following up on a look back at the Indians hitters and their relationship to Pecota last season, we take a look at the pitchers. The only "BP" stat I'm going to be relaying is (as defined by BP):

VORP, again, is Value Over Replacement Player. A pitcher's VORP is the number of extra runs that a replacement level pitcher would have allowed to score if he pitched the same number of innings as this pitcher, based on his translated statistics.

Rafael Betancourt	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	55	13	53	3.31	16.1
ACTUAL	71	25	64	5.07	4.9

Comment: The whole thing fell apart for Raffy-R in 2008. He didn't have his control, gave up 11 homeruns after only giving up 4 the year before and saw his comps list go from Keith Foulke, Trevor Hoffman, John Wetteland, and Tom Henke to Keith Foulke, Enrique Romo, and Justin Speier.

The change in comps here is especially instructive; before last season, PECOTA said Betancourt coud either dominate into his late 30s (Hoffman and Henke), implode and disappear (Wetteland) or implode and hang on for two more seasons (Foulke). Apparently, Rafael chose the final option. Obviously, he's not going the injury route like Foulke but it still doesn't bode well. Relievers rolling into their mid-30s who fall apart tend to stay fallen apart.

The Speier thing is really compelling as well; he and Betancourt are about 18 months apart in age, both have had short runs of dominance at advanced ages, and both exploded in 2008. Now they comp for each other.

Joe Borowski	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	51.2	16	41	4.21	8.3
ACTUAL	16.2	12	24	7.54	-3.2

Comment: We all owe Borowski a debt of gratitude for quickly evaporating instead of puddling all over the furniture for another 2.5 months. Flights of angels sing thee to thy rest, sweet Joe.

Paul Byrd	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	115	24	52	5.19	5.6
ACTUAL	180	34	82	4.60	21.1

Comment: I was going to lavish praise on Paul Byrd for throwing 180 innings at such an advanced age but then I looked up how many guys had done it. So, instead, let's just stop and think about Phil Niekro throwing 342 innings in a single season at age 40.

Seriously, is that a typo? I know he's a knuckler and all but, 342? What?

Fausto Carmona	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	183.2	62	123	4.13	27.9
ACTUAL	120.2	70	58	5.44	-1.1

Comment: I think the fact that Fausto was actually worse than a replacement player, that is a AAAA player, aka Brian Slocum Bullington Jr, says about all we need to know about 2008. His number one comp is still Scott Erickson, which sort of seems like a nightmare scenario. However, something about 2008 made Kevin Brown appear on Fausto's list. This can only be a good thing but I find it a little intriguing; I had never conisdered that PECOTA was using GO or FO in their comps but they must be, right?

Kevin Brown! We have Kevin Brown!

Masahide Kobayashi	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	39.2	13	27	4.74	2.9
ACTUAL	55.2	14	35	4.52	5.9

Comment: If Kobayashi had been used as PECOTA anticipated, that is if he'd only thrown 40 innings, his final line would've included 11 walks, 26 strikeouts and a 3.15 ERA. This is notable because PECOTA had figured out his BB and SO rates but, more than that, because Masa never should've been throwing 55 innings in the first place. Over his last 19 appearances, Kobayashi had an 8.04 ERA.

I'm a little concerned about the Indians cutting bait with Masa this spring; I don't see why he can't contribute to a bullpen at a level at least comparable to Vinne Chulk. It'd be a real shame if the Indians have in fact broken Kobayashi after just one season but I guess if you couldn't throw 55 IP, you probably didn't belong to start with.

Aaron Laffey	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	159.1	58	88	4.58	15.1
ACTUAL	93.2	31	43	4.23	9.0

Comment: Tom Glavine is one of Laffey's comps, which is kind of cool I guess. Aaron's youth has been his smoke-screen for the last two years, and deservedly so. Being above replacement in the majors at ages 22 and 23 is a pretty decent trick. Now, however, Laffey needs to ascend to, at the least, the role of innings-eating groundballer, both for his sake and the Indians' playoff hopes.

Weirdly, PECOTA is predicting a .330 BABIP for Aaron in 2009. I don't know what that means.

Cliff Lee	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	107.2	42	77	5.06	7.3
ACTUAL	223	34	170	2.54	76.5

Comment: There's no precedent for what Lee did.

Jensen Lewis	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	47	20	42	4.01	9.2
ACTUAL	66	27	52	3.82	13.5

Comment: Lewis is starting to bore me; he's fun and might have a 2.75 ERA season somewhere in his future but I'm not prepared to say that's in 2009 or 2014. His stuff is really not great according to people who evaluate that sort of thing and I think that's going to cause him to bounce around that 4.00 ERA benchmark, mixing good outings and bad. I think we (LGT) have a tendency to get sort of overly-jazzed about bullpen arms: they're fun for game threads and they often look really incredible for short stretches. With Lewis, the reality is that he's a 25 year old reliever with just OK stuff.

He sort of defines that mystical 'Throw it and see if it sticks arm' that the Indians front office has focused on; there's the potential for a great season and there's a potential for a really terrible one, with absolutely no guarantee of mediocrity.

Does that mean I don't love him? Naw. I still love love him.

Rafael Perez	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	74.1	28	57	3.78	16.1
ACTUAL	76	23	86	3.54	17.0

Comment: Picking from the comp lists again, Perez is shaping up to be Sparky Lyle. I don't know much about Sparky but the numbers look about right. In contrast to Lewis, this is an arm that deserves genuine excitement. Perez has two dominant relievers with sub 3 career ERAs on his list: Lyle and Dave Smith and, of course, Perez has the stuff.

Like many relievers, Perez has sort of a weird career trajectory; he's going to be 27 this year which sort of creeps up on you. He represents a best case scenario of sorts for it boy Josh Tomlin, if we ignore Tomlin's handedness.

C.C. Sabathia	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	215	53	179	3.38	47.6
ACTUAL	253	59	251	2.70	77.4

Comment: The big boy did all that and then he did some more. For those who hope for this sort of thing, there's not great predictors for a total collapse out of Sabathia; he's comping Drysdale, Carlton, Clemens, and Viola. All those guys were very good through at least their early thirties, and Charles Caresten is only 28.

I don't really want to talk about him any more. Thanks for Brantley and LaPorta.

Jeremy Sowers	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	131.2	46	66	5.45	2.1
ACTUAL	109.1	39	64	5.58	-4.9

Comment: If I can't say anything nice, I won't say anything at all.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:24:23 -0000

Some things to read while breakdancing your way through an intrasquad game. (second picture)

Good morning and welcome to the first game day of 2009. Jeff Suppan gets the ball today for the Brewers, and will be followed by Dave Bush, Trevor Hoffman, Eddie Morlan, Lindsay Gulin, Nick Green, Todd Coffey and Jorge Julio for one inning each.

For most players, these first few games of spring training are light workouts, with a few innings of defense and an at bat or two. Ryan Braun, however, may play the entire game as part of his accelerated preparations for the World Baseball Classic. As Tom H. noted, Braun may need to play a lot of innings in the WBC, as Team USA only has four outfielders on the roster, and Braun is the only left fielder.

Braun still couldn't get #8, though, despite the fact that no one on Team USA's roster is wearing it. Braun is wearing #51 in the Classic.

Meanwhile, the Brewers made two announcements yesterday regarding 2008 #1 pick Brett Lawrie: He's moving to second base and representing Team Canada in the WBC.

Also, Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks, who normally covers the Brewers, is also covering Team Italy in the WBC. The Italian team features Vinny Rottino and Mark Difelice along with a bunch of guys who will be looking for something to do once the first round is over.

J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run yesterday as Fish's Fantastics defeated Eddie's Elite 2-1 in a 4 inning intrasquad game. Tim Dillard allowed both runs for the Elite, with Omar Aguilar giving up the only run for the Fantastics.

Braden Looper pitched a perfect inning yesterday. Fungoes, however, doesn't think hanging onto him would have helped the Cardinals this season. That's fine, the Brewers will take him. I still need to get the Looper jersey I promised I'd pick up.

It looks like I won't be needing a Bourgeois jersey, though. Jason Bourgeois was sent to minor league camp yesterday along with injured pitchers Mark Rogers and Alex Periard and catcher Martin Maldonado. Bourgeois' broken pinkie still is not healed enough to play, but he could return to big league camp when/if it does.

Having good plate discipline will get you more fastballs to hit. So will a lack of power. As such, this FanGraphs study has a graph showing Jason Kendall getting significantly more fastballs to hit than most others.

Mike Cameron is the subject of today's JS Spring Training story. They cover just how close he was to being a Yankee, and why he's glad to be back as a Brewer.

Got some money burning a hole in your pocket? Brew City Sports has taken a look at the odds and thinks the Brewers are an undervalued bet to win the World Series. Or, if you'd like a more concrete return on your investment, make plans to spend April 8 in Appleton with Gord Ash as part of the Timber Rattlers' Lead-Off Experience. Tickets are just $30, and the event has the added bonus of being in the same building where I'm having my wedding reception in June.

Speaking of the Timber Rattlers, Rattler Radio has pictures of the first stage of the installation for their new video board.

So, today is Cory Provus' big debut as a Brewer broadcaster. He guest-posted on Brian Anderson's blog to introduce himself. You can hear him today on WTMJ or MLB.com.

Based on the fact that you're here reading a blog about the Brewers and you've gotten this far, you're probably a Brewers fan. But if you're not, Sixty Feet, Six Inches has two words that should convince you to jump on the bandwagon: sausage race.

We haven't talked about him in a while, so I had completely forgotten Lou Palmisano is in camp with the Astros, and could be returned to the Brewers if he fails to make the team out of spring training. Cap'n Lou made a good first impression, though, hitting a monstrous home run in the Astros' intrasquad game yesterday. The Astros are short on catching, so it's possible Palmisano could stick.

Meanwhile, in other camps:

Indians: Joe Borowski, still a free agent and apparently unsatisfied with the offers he's received, has decided to retire.
Marlins: Continue to show interest in relievers Will Ohman and Chad Cordero.
Rays: Ownership says the team is out of spending money, and the current payroll may prevent them from making moves during the season.
Reds: Francisco Cordero is ok after being doused with hot coffee by Hall of Fame writer Hal McCoy.
Twins: Boof Bonser will have exploratory shoulder surgery today and could be out anywhere from a few weeks to all of 2009.

For more spring training news and analysis from around the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues, be sure to check out the SBNation Spring Training Hub, which you can get to by clicking that link or clicking anywhere you see this attractive fellow:

The spring training hub is populated by all of the SBNation blogs. Right now the front page includes several of yesterday's notes from here at BCB, as well as dozens of other posts from other teams. The content will only get better as the days and weeks go by and more of us participate.

Similarly, the Washington Nationals front office will likely get better when other people participate. Rumor has it the Nationals have targeted Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava to replace Jim Bowden when/if his current list of embarrassing charges leads to his resignation or dismissal.

Oh, and as times get tougher for cable networks, ESPN will likely be ok.

Drink up. The first game thread of spring opens in a few hours.

Morning Prowl: Porcello, D-Train, Larish, and... Borowski?

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:00:11 -0000

Baseball America has released its list of Top 100 prospects. Rick Porcello's name doesn't pop up until #21, however. (Cameron Maybin is #8.)

If Dontrelle Willis looks as good during game competition as he has in batting practice, can we take Jim Leyland's compliment and begin calling the D-Train "Donnie Tremendous"?

John Lowe writes about the chances of Jeff Larish making the major league roster. The fact that he doesn't play center field seems to work against him, but perhaps carrying that type of player isn't necessary. (I hesitate to elaborate on this, for fear of invoking the jinx, so go read Lowe's article.)

Tom Gage has a nice story about catching prospect Alex Avila, and how his game developed under the tutelage of his father, Tigers assistant GM Al Avila.

The Tigers agreed to contracts with five players who were ineligible for arbitration. Ryan Raburn, Freddy Dolsi, Clay Rapada, Brent Clevlen, and Wilkin Ramirez each signed one-year deals with the team yesterday.

With Todd Jones now retired, I guess Joe Borowski figured he couldn't pitch anymore, either. He's calling it a career. And were the Tigers really one of two teams (along with the Phillies) showing interest in him? Really?

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has a suggestion for the World Baseball Classic: Make the tournament a one-week, single elimination event and play it during an expanded All-Star break (in lieu of the All-Star Game) once every four years.

(via Baseball Musings)

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:34:34 -0000

Good morning and welcome to year two of the Frosty Mug. Thanks to everyone for all the comments on Saturday's Mugiversary post. It's always good to feel loved.

The Brewers added a little more depth to the rotation over the weekend, signing Matt Ginter to a minor league deal. Ginter started four games for the Indians in 2008 after the Sabathia trade, and posted an ERA over 5. He's almost certainly ticketed for AAA, and didn't even receive an invitation to spring training.

If you're looking to learn more about the backup plans for the rotation, Tom H. has quick profiles of Mark DiFelice, Ginter, Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin, Chris Narveson and Chase Wright. Assuming none of them make the roster, the Brewers could have four lefty starters (Narron, Gulin, Narveson and Wright) in Nashville to open the season.

As part of the JS Spring Training preview, Tom H. has ten questions for the Brewers to answer this spring. There's nothing groundbreaking there, but it's a nice recap.

Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has scouting reports up for players 6-10 in MiLB.com's top 50 prospect rankings. #8 is Alcides Escobar.

Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has a cool graph up classifying starting pitchers by K and ground ball rates. Both Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are on the wrong side of the graph, but he does mention Manny Parra as someone who could have a breakout season in 2009.

The hot stove didn't even get warm for some players this winter: As noted in this FanShot, Ray Durham has not received a single offer this offseason and is considering retirement. My guess is a spring training injury will leave someone an opening at second base, and his phone will ring.

Maybe Durham should hold a public workout, those seem to draw interest: The Brewers are reportedly one of eleven teams that may attend Chad Cordero's workout on February 19.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Braves: Have offered Tom Glavine a contract worth $1-2 million for 2009. Glavine made $9 million in 2008.
D-Backs: Signed Tom Gordon to a one year deal worth $500,000.
Dodgers: Signed Randy Wolf to a one year deal worth $5 million, which is $1 million less than the Brewers will pay Trevor Hoffman.
Giants: Have a minor league offer on the table for Rich Aurilia.
Phillies: Signed Ryan Howard to a three year deal worth $54 million. They've also reportedly offered minor league deals to Joe Borowski and Rudy Seanez.
Rangers: Signed Andruw Jones to a minor league deal, meaning Jon Heyman was right when he mentioned it last week. They also signed Brendan Donnelly to a minor league deal.
Rays: Signed reliever Winston Abreu to a minor league deal.
Twins: Signed Luis Ayala to a one year deal for $1.3 million.

The first arbitration hearing has been held, with Shawn Hill of the Nationals winning his case. He'll make $775,000 in 2009. The Nationals offered $500,000. The $275,000 difference was the second smallest figure among the 19 remaining arbitration cases.

How many players would you guess played major and minor league baseball in 2008? The correct answer is 8833, significantly more than I would have guessed. Tangotiger has a csv file of all of them, if you want it.

Last week we discussed the financial value of Bug Selig, who made over $18 million between October of 2006 and 2007. Scott Van Pelt of ESPN took that debate to the next level, making personal remarks about Selig that have led to his suspension from his ESPN Radio show.

Oh, and I missed Friday's 30th birthday of Big League Chew.

Drink up.

Pitcher Profile: Carl Pavano

Kyle Boddy — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 06:50:54 -0000

Carl Pavano

#0 / Pitcher / Cleveland Indians

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

Let's get a few things out of the way:

That picture is hilarious.
Carl Pavano was hurt a lot.
Pavano has serious questions about his commitment to strength and conditioning.
I'm an Indians fan.

Now that we have those points out of the way, we can start to analyze Pavano's mechanics. The only reference to his mechanics on the Internet was Mike Pagliarulo's article on Dugout Central. (Note how BJ Ryan tops the list.) Mike mentioned that Pavano has problems "leaking the front side" and "balance position over the rubber." What? He doesn't go into much detail, but he does talk about "leaking the front side" - it is apparently when the front side opens too early and causes the pitching shoulder and arm to "speed up," making him a big injury risk. I actually agree with this quite a bit, and I think it helps to explain the frequent shoulder injuries that Rich Harden experiences. It's something I'll track and research a bit more. (This will probably fall under the "Arm Action" phase of my analysis.)

However, I spot other problems in Pavano's delivery that make him at-risk for injury. Take a look at this unrelated image from NoMaas:

Alright, that was uncalled for. Let's actually do some work...

Per Fangraphs, we can see that Pavano lost velocity on all of his pitches in 2008:

Season	Team	FB	SL	CB	CH	SF	XX	PO
Total *	- - -	63.1% (89.0)	13.1% (81.3)	0.1% (75.7)	17.2% (80.3)	6.4% (81.3)	0.9%	0.4%
2005	Yankees	63.5% (89.4)	11.2% (82.9)	0.1% (75.5)	18.0% (80.6)	7.2% (82.5)	0.9%	0.6%
2007	Yankees	74.5% (90.7)	8.1% (82.1)		17.4% (81.0)		2.0%
2008	Yankees	59.1% (87.9)	19.6% (79.7)	0.2% (76.0)	15.1% (79.5)	6.0% (78.9)	0.5%

R.J. Anderson (of Beyond the Box Score) wrote at Fangraphs that Pavano's swinging strike totals were similar to 2005, indicating that his stuff has held up over the years, even if his shoulder hasn't.

Here's a pitching clip from 2008 vs. Tampa Bay:

You can see what Mike P. was talking about when Pavano "leaks the front side" - he opens his shoulder a bit early, even if he does keep equal and opposite arms.

I see very small signs of Hyperabduction, but strangely enough I see something related to Mike's analysis that might explain the shoulder problems he suffered. Take a look at the frames when Pavano "swims" his glove arm back, forcibly loading the scapula. Not only does this "leak the front side," but it will stress the anterior portion of the shoulder. It is plainly obvious that this is not a "passive" load of the scapula - it is forced.

Tempo: 21-22 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Just slightly Below Average. What's more troubling is the fact that Pavano is a "tall-and-fall" pitcher; he simply lifts his leg and puts it back down without drifting through the balance point like most successful pitchers (Lincecum is the gold standard).

Arm Action: Like I said above, Pavano uses a swim move with his glove to load his scapula in a forced abduction pattern. I don't like this. Furthermore, he is late at footstrike - his pitching forearm barely clears his shoulders when his shoulders begin to turn, which probably explains the elbow troubles he's had. Very Bad.

Ball Release: Pretty decent, actually. There's no question that Pavano has intent to throw hard, but the steps leading up to the release phase are what causes him problems. Still, he bends over at the waist - I prefer pitchers to think "stand tall and rotate," which is a Dr. Marshall cue. I want them to stick their pitching arm shoulder into the catcher's mitt. Average.

Followthrough: Bad. I see a lot of Max Scherzer in Pavano's followthrough - he hangs his arm and doesn't firm up his glove side against his shoulder in the deceleration phase. This can cause additional stress on the anterior and posterior portions of Pavano's shoulder.

Still, Pavano's delivery is not that stressful - at least not to cause the litany of random injuries he's suffered. Strained buttocks and cracked ribs that kept him from pitching entirely in 2006? UCL rupture after pitching in spring training and nothing else? There are tons of third-hand reports of him eating candy bars and lounging around the Yankees clubhouse, doing nothing while being unable to throw - and enjoying the experience. These are pretty serious allegations - even Mike Mussina jumped on his back, telling Pavano that he had to "get tough" and that other Yankees teammates were not a fan of Pavano's indifference to physical conditioning.

I think that Carl Pavano has serious question marks about his dedication to conditioning, something that the Indians no doubt understood - signing him to a $1.5m guaranteed contract with an assured spot in the starting rotation. Jay from Let's Go Tribe broke the deal down like this:

1-17 starts — 1.5M
18-19 starts — 1.6M
20-21 starts, <130 IP — 1.7M
20-21 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.8M
22-23 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.9M
24-25 starts, 140-149 IP — 2.2M
26-27 starts, 150-159 IP — 2.5M
28-29 starts, 160-169 IP — 2.85M
30-31 starts, 170-179 IP — 3.25M
30-31 starts, 180-189 IP — 3.45M
32 starts, 190-199 IP — 4.0M
33 starts, 200-214 IP — 4.6M
33 starts, 215-224 IP — 4.9M
34 starts, 225-234 IP — 5.65M
35 starts, 235+ IP — 6.55M

The only problem with the deal I see is the guaranteed slot in the rotation. There's no reason to believe that Pavano is any better than Scott Lewis, Zach Jackson, Aaron Laffey, or Jeremy Sowers, or... hmm. Actually, that's a load of fringy pitchers, many of whom have had shots at the big league and have failed to impress. (Please spare me Scott Lewis' performance at the end of 2008.)

Overall, I think the deal is fine for the Indians. It's a typical Mark Shapiro move - sign a veteran who is considered to be washed up and see if they can get anything out of him. It worked with Aaron Fultz, and uh... Joe Borowski... and not too many others. Still, the point is that these deals cost basically nothing in money and roster space (they can be released painlessly) for a shot at some serious upside. Remember when the Big Hurt was "washed up" and then went to Oakland for the first time?

As a parting note, did anyone know that Eric Mangini is Mark Shapiro's brother-in-law? I didn't, but I'm not much of a Browns fan.

The Cub Can Of Worms: LaTroy Hawkins

Al — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:41:21 -0000

With the great majority of Cubs fans puzzled and/or angry that Kerry Wood wasn't offered arbitration yesterday, I figured it was time to open the Can and let LaTroy Hawkins out, just to remind all of you that things could be a lot worse.

And though I know most of us don't have any good memories of a player some called "LaToya", let's also remember that his failures as a Cub, while monumental, in many ways weren't his fault.

Best forgotten as a Cub, here's
LaTroy pictured during his
half-season in San Francisco

photo via www.cbc.ca

What do I mean by this? Hawkins was signed as a free agent after the 2003 season, following one good and one outstanding year as a setup man for Joe Nathan with Minnesota. In fact, Hawkins was likely the best non-closing reliever in the majors in 2003 -- he had a 1.76 ERA in 74 appearances comprising 77.1 innings. He allowed only 5 homers, and struck out 75 and walked only 15.

It all would have worked out fine if Joe Borowski hadn't gotten hurt early in the 2004 season. And when that happened, Dusty installed LaTroy at closer, despite ample evidence that Hawkins wasn't suited to close. In his last full year of closing at Minnesota, he put up 28 saves -- but had nine blown saves and an ERA of 5.96, with 39 walks and only 36 strikeouts in 51.1 innings. The next year, 2002, the Twins installed Eddie Guardado at closer; he saved 45 games, Hawkins was good setting him up and perhaps not coincidentally, the Twins improved by nine wins and won the AL Central.

Perhaps Dusty didn't have a whole lot of other choices in 2004. Kyle Farnsworth was on the 2004 Cubs, but his better days were already behind him. Michael Wuertz was a rookie, and we know that Baker would never have entrusted the closer role to a rookie. Ryan Dempster was still rehabbing from an injury -- though, when he was activated in August, he made 23 relief appearances with a decent 3.92 ERA and two saves. So LaTroy was given the job fulltime in early June. He did OK up till September, when he blew two critical games in the season's final week, and about that, enough said, I think -- no need to relive that. He finished 2004 with nine blown saves -- turn around five of those, and the Cubs win the wild card.

Despite calls from everyone from bloggers to sportswriters to Jim Hendry for Dempster to be installed at closer, Dusty insisted that LaTroy could do the job in 2005. Dempster began the year in the rotation, and Hawkins blew four saves by May 13, at which time Dempster was given the closer role. The third of the four blown saves is the one all of us will remember forever -- it happened on May 6, 2005. In the top of the ninth, with the Cubs leading the Phillies 2-1 -- on a Derrek Lee two-run homer off Billy Wagner in the last of the 8th -- Hawkins gave up two singles, then got Ryan Howard for the first out. Jose Offerman then batted for Marlon Byrd. Earlier in his career Offerman had put up decent OBA's (96 walks in 1999) but by this time he usually hacked at everything.

Hawkins walked him, loading the bases. The next batter, pinch-hitter Placido Polanco, hit a screaming line drive right back to LaTroy. The runners had broken with the crack of the bat. LaTroy had Offerman caught off base. He threw to D-Lee. Game over, right?

Wrong. Hawkins' throw hit Offerman in the helmet. If he had tried to do that 999 more times, he couldn't have done it again. The ball ricocheted into the right field corner, two runs scored and the Cubs lost 3-2.

That was it for Hawkins in the eyes of me and most other Cubs fans. He began to be booed unmercifully, and even louder, in his next appearance on May 9, he gave up a homer to the Mets' Doug Mientkiewics that broke a 4-4 tie and cost the Cubs another game. By the end of May, Hendry had to ship him out of town; somehow he got the Giants to take his contract. In return the Cubs got Jerome Williams, who seemed to have potential but who was last seen in the Dodgers' farm system in 2008, and David Aardsma, who brought Neal Cotts to the North Side, so at least there's still someone on the roster as a result of the Hawkins signing, which happened five years ago tomorrow.

Interestingly, once the Astros got Hawkins last August, he was outstanding -- an 0.43 ERA in 24 games and only 5 walks, in a setup role. The Astros re-signed LaTroy for 2009. But... Lou says he's looking for another right-handed reliever. You don't suppose...

Nah. Too terrible to contemplate.