SB Nation - Rafael Perez

Non-tender roundup: Miller and Reyes signed to minor league deals

Jay — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:10:39 -0000

Vaporstarter Adam Miller and the oft-injured Anthony Reyes were not tendered contracts by the Indians yesterday, rendering them free agents, but both pitchers signed minor league deals with the Indians just hours later. These transactions remove both pitchers from the 40-man roster while retaining their services for at least one more year. In the (admittedly unlikely) event Miller's career gets back on track this season, this series of moves avoids using up one of his option years, and should the Indians choose in the next year to restore him to the 40-man roster, he will have at least one option year left and will remain under club control at least through 2016. Reyes remains optionless, of course, but still hypothetically could remain under club control through 2013.

The Indians also declined to offer a contract to reliever Jose Veras, who was arbitration eligible, rendering him a free agent, and there is no indication he will be re-signed. Cleveland's 40-man roster now stands at 37, with 18 pitchers and 19 position players.

The Indians did tender a contract to pitcher Rafael Perez, who is eligible for arbitration (and to the other 28 players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible). The non-non-tender to Perez was non-unexpected, despite a disastrous season in which he was the fourth-worst reliever in the majors (min. 30 IP) per WXRL, which estimates a reliever's actual impact on the chance of his team winning or losing games. (That's "Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted," if you must know. BP rates Perez as merely the 10th-worst reliever at preventing runs from scoring, but because he blew more runs than his peers in high-leverage game situations, his negative impact on wins and losses was more substantial.)

Perez spent almost two months in the minors but still qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player with several weeks to spare. As a relief pitcher coming off a terrible season with barely enough service time to qualify, Perez is in line to be awarded perhaps the smallest salary of any player going to arbitration, probably less than $1 million. It's worth recalling, at this point, how outstanding Perez was in his truly super two-plus seasons prior to this one. He had a 2.89 ERA (and 152 ERA+) over 149.1 IP. He struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, with 3.7 strikeouts for every walk. He held lefties to a .241 slugging percentage and allowed them only nine extra-base hits in 249 PA. As long as we keep tendering him contracts, he remains under club control through 2013, and there is a reasonable chance he will re-emerge as an impact reliever, or at the very least a useful one, at some point in that span.

Other notable non-tenders include former Indians Ryan Garko and Ryan Church. Garko of course was traded to the Giants only months ago for a decent enough pitching prospect. Just 115 abysmal AB later, Giants GM Brian Sabean is now saying he doesn't want to pay upwards of $3 million to a guy who isn't really an everyday player. I'm not saying he's wrong, but it's a pretty hilarious statement to make for a guy who will still owes $83 million to Barry Zito for the next four seasons. McCovey Chronicles has a pretty dead-on take on Sabean's curious sequence of decisions. My theory is that you just can't understand how slow this guy is on the basepaths until he's actually on your team, and maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko's athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

Expect the cleveland.com crowd to clamor for Garko's return, oblivious to the fact that two teams have now deemed him unworthy of an everyday role in the space of just a few months. Despite high regard for his character, I would be surprised if Shapiro brought him back, even at a substantially reduced salary. I rather expect Garko will be signed by a GM who scouted him as a college player and was impressed with his stroke. As a lefty batter, Church doesn't really fit in with the Indians' plans. Other interesting non-tenders include Pirates closer Matt Capps, Yankees sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang, and third baseman Garrett Atkins. Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get. I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians took an interest in Mike MacDougal; they seem to like guys who used to be closers.

As for Miller, these moves were unusual, reflecting an unusual situation. The "non-tender" deadline traditionally involves only players who are arbitration-eligible, as there is little reason not to tender a contract to any player on the 40-man roster who isn't eligible, since the most the team can be compelled to pay such a player is the minimum salary, which will remain $400,000 for the 2010 season. Many such players will make less than half that much, if they don't spend much time in the majors.

The latest in Miller's deathless progression of rehab setbacks occurred after rosters were frozen for the Rule 5 draft. Otherwise, the Indians might have chosen to DFA Miller prior to that point, exposing him to waivers. That might have cost the Indians the rights to Chuck Lofgren — but then again, maybe not. The Indians might have protected some other on-the-bubble prospect like Yohan Pino, in which case, Miller's delayed setback actually saved the Indians from burning an option year on whoever-that-would-have-been. And even if Miller clears waivers (and later, presumably, also clears the Rule 5 draft), he would have been granted minor league free agency anyway, since he was originally signed more than six years ago.

In that sense, non-tendering Miller, while unusually, was actually a more straightforward path to the same destination. Either way, he ends up as a free agent, free to sign with any club, but this way, he doesn't have to pass through waivers first. Miller obviously felt some combination of organizational loyalty and faith in the club's ability to rehab him back into a prospect, assuming that's even possible. Reyes has spent far less time in the Indians organization, but he had the same options as Miller and made the same choice. If either player was actually worth something anymore, we might consider feeling good about that.

Game 162: Red Sox 12, Indians 7

Ryan — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:59:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Travis Hafner hit .321/.424/.500 over the last two weeks of the season.

Browse more photos »

It's over. Finally.

Tomo Ohka got burned for for seven earned runs in five innings, but I guess that's besides the point, for if he starts another game for the Indians, the team is heading for another season like this one. Rafael Perez, in what may have been his last appearance as member of the Indians, gave up 4 runs in just 2/3 of an inning. But, for the most part, the major player moves have happened, and whoever you've seen this month is likely who you'll see next April. I think Andy Marte bought himself another spring training, and the same with Jeremy Sowers. Kelly Shoppach will eventually be traded, but I don't think this winter is the right time to do it.

Of course, there will be a new coaching staff, and their selection should play out by the end of this month. And after that, there's free agency, which the Indians probably won't participate in, and the trade market, which they probably will take a part in. All the while we'll think back on this season as little as possible, and wish the 2010 season to get here with all haste. Thanks for sticking around until the bitter end, and may your reward be watching next year's playoff contender with the satisfaction of remembering when the groundwork was laid for it.

Next Up: A season review.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.148	Tomo Ohka	-.520
Jhonny Peralta	.110	Chris Perez	-.125
Matt LaPorta	.061	Rafael Perez	-.115

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

Browse more photos »

This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Game 146: Twins 7, Indians 3

Jay — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:47:34 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Laffey isn't getting any easier to watch.

Browse more photos »

As if we needed one, today's performance provided another reason why nobody should be betting on the Tribe in 2010. Starter Aaron Laffey, one of our best hopes in the rotation for next season, put up another highly suspect performance. Laffey bobbled the ball at first base in the third inning, leading to the Twins' first run, unearned, but an unfocused defensive performance also abetted the three earned runs Laffey allowed in the fourth. It could have been bad luck, but four Twins runners advanced into scoring position on throws from the outfield in that inning, while none were thrown out on the bases.

Laffey pitched a perfect sixth inning, which arguably earned him a shot in the seventh. Viewed another way, Laffey allowed hard-hit balls to all fields in the sixth — flyouts to left, center and right — so it should be no surprise that four pitches into the seventh, Laffey had allowed the Twins' fifth run, with a sixth run primed to score from third with no outs. Jess Todd allowed one run in one inning, keeping his ERA over 11.00. Rafael Perez happily induced groundouts from all three batters he faced, driving his ERA all the way down to 7.50.

Laffey has allowed 21 earned runs over his last six starts, for an ERA of 5.61. Tellingly, he's allowed an additional six unearned runs, for an RA of 6.95. The worst news, however, is that after getting zero out of 32 batters to strike out today, Laffey now has only 11 strikeouts against 17 walks over those six starts, a span of 33.2 IP. There is one piece of good news, however, in that neither Laffey nor any other Indians pitcher will ever have to pitch in the Metrodome again.

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Matt LaPorta	.090	Aaron Laffey	-.231
Luis Valbuena	.029	Jhonny Peralta	-.093
Michael Brantley	.005	Kelly Shoppach	-.088

The Indians lineup teamed up for a vintage Casey Blake performance early in the game, seeing all kinds of pitches without having much to show for it. Jhonny Peralta in particular saw 33 pitches but somehow ended up 0-for-5. Don't be surprised if he gets some hits the rest of the week.

Matt LaPorta led a solid attack later in the game, following a deep Hafner double with a long home run to straight-away center in the 7th, then driving in two more in the 8th. It was LaPorta's second home run in about 17 hours and a nice glimpse into what should be a very productive offense next year. LaPorta's home run last night was the only run Joe Nathan allowed the Indians this season over seven innings, which included 11 strikeouts.

Kelly Shoppach, who had two singles earlier in the game, came up with the bases loaded with two outs in the 8th, representing the tying run. He flied out to right to end the threat, but he did make it through five PA without striking out even once. It's unclear whether this was because Wedge was yelling at him earlier in the game or in spite of it. Unlike past losing seasons, Wedge may have finally lost his clubhouse.

Up Next: The Indians travel to Oakland, for some of those 10 p.m. games we all love.

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

Browse more photos »

This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

The Tribe's Been Broken: Tigers 4, Indians 3

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 01:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Is Placido Polanco being mobbed by teammates for driving in the winning run for a walk-off 4-3 victory over the Indians Thursday afternoon? Or is the poor guy just being mugged? You make the call.

Browse more photos »

For all the hand-wringing over the Minnesota Twins still being too close for comfort in the AL Central race (though they are now five games out of first place), the Detroit Tigers should be okay if they do what good teams usually do. Beat the teams you're supposed to, and break even against the upper tier of the league.

How are the Tigers doing with this? Last weekend, they split with the defending AL champion Rays. And after this afternoon's walk-off victory, Detroit swept the fourth-place team in the AL Central. So far, so good.

Nate Robertson pitched well for the second consecutive start, throwing six shutout innings and holding the Indians to just four hits. Cleveland really only had one decent scoring chance, getting a runner to third in the fifth inning. Once again, it was an effort deserving of a win. And this time around, Robertson got some runs from his lineup.

Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn't quite get it through to the finish. The relief corps was a bit short-handed, with Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney each pitching the last two nights and presumably unavailable. (Especially with a short turnaround from night game to day game.) So it was bound to be shaky unless they were given a big lead. A three-run margin wasn't quite large enough, thanks largely to Fu-Te Ni.

Ni left a slider out over the plate to Shin-Soo Choo, who promptly launched it to the right field wall for a two-run, game-tying double. Fortunately for Ni, the game was at Comerica Park, so it wasn't a homer. But it cost Robertson a win, nonetheless, and put the final outcome in doubt.

That is, until Rafael Perez took the mound for the Indians in the 10th. Perez gave up a leadoff double to pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn, then walked the next two batters (intentionally passing Miguel Cabrera). Bases loaded, and no outs? Hey, the Tigers have been known to squander such opportunities.

But if you need one guy to put the ball in play and make a productive out, Placido Polanco is probably the one you want batting. So Jim Leyland got him in there. And when Perez teed up a slider right down the middle of the plate, Polanco made sure he did something with it. His fly ball was deep enough to center for Raburn to run in standing up for the game-winner.

Beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Especially at home. It's all part of the plan, you might say.

Roar:

Zach Miner hasn't exactly been lights-out lately. I'm sure more than a few people weren't happy when he took over for Ni in the eighth. But the Tigers don't win today without his 2.1 hitless innings of relief. And the one walk he allowed was negated when Gerald Laird threw out Michael Brantley attempting to steal.

Of course, the Tigers also wouldn't have built a three-run lead without Clete Thomas's two-run triple in the seventh. So kudos to him, as well.

Comment of the Day:

Ok, hands up, who predicted a Carmona/Robertson pitchers duel?

anyone with their hand up is a filthy stinkin’ liar :)

by ahtrap

And your runner-up, even though most people probably weren't in the mood for singing after Ni gave up those two runs.

Game 132: Tigers 4, Indians 2

Ryan — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 02:13:15 -0000

by Paul Sancya - AP

A baseball that Jhonny Peralta managed to catch.

View full size photo »

This was an ugly game.

The difference in this game were two unearned runs given up by the Indians. There were five errors in all committed by the Cleveland defense, with Jhonny Peralta had three of them, all on fielding plays. In addition, the Indians grounded into three double plays, and for good measure, Grady Sizemore got picked off of first base (and no, he wasn't running).

Aaron Laffey gave up 11 base runners, four of which were walks. Only one of his seven hits given up went for extra bases, so his outing wasn't that bad. Rick Porcello, though, breezed though seven innings on 80 pitches. The last time the 20-year-old went as many as 6 innings was his last start against the Indians, when he went 8 innings.

Travis Hafner was back in the lineup, and he finished the Cleveland scoring by blasting just his 14th home run in the eighth.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Robertson, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Grady Sizemore	.028	Jhonny Peralta	-.131
Rafael Perez	.015	Luis Valbuena	-.075
Travis Hafner	.013	Aaron Laffey	-.073

Game 130: Orioles 5, Indians 2

Ryan — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 21:18:09 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Ty Wigginton gets tagged out by Wyatt Toregas in the fourth.

Browse more photos »

Today's game marked the last game before September, and before the active roster expands beyond 25. Because of that, success in the month of September does need placed in proper perspective because those late-season callups often are playing against other late-season callups. Given that, it was very good to see both Andy Marte and Matt LaPorta getting regular playing time before September 1st. Both players saw their 10-game hitting streaks end today, but their overall performances were encouraging. LaPorta (heading into today) hit .410/.400/.718 in 40 plate appearances, while Marte hit .299/.355/.493 in 76 plate appearances.

Brian Matusz, the fourth straight rookie starter the Indians faced, pitched the best game of the series. He allowed one earned run in seven innings pitched, striking out eight while walking one. Conversely, Justin Masterson, who had pitched well against the Orioles previously, pitched into the sixth but not before allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits and 4 walks. Baltimore scored four of their five runs in the third inning, helped out by two Cleveland errors. Both of the errors came on base hits, with either a misplay or a wild throw allowed both batter and/or baserunner to advance.

After Masterson left, Rafael Perez pitched two perfect innings in relief. Getting Perez Left back into his previous form has been a year-long struggle for Carl Willis, but perhaps now, as the year's winding down, that elusive goal may be within reach.

Next Up: At Detroit on Tuesday. Carlos Carrasco (making his Indians debut) vs. Edwin Jackson

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Rafael Perez	.018	Justin Masterson	-.220
Jamey Carroll	.017	Jhonny Peralta	-.078
Shin-Soo Choo	.017	Andy Marte	-.073

Game 122: Indians 4, Mariners 3 (11 Innings)

Ryan — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 03:18:51 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

3 months ago: Cleveland Indians' Luis Valbuena, top right, is congratulated by teammates after hitting a game-winning solo home run off Seattle Mariners pitcher Randy Messenger in the 11th inning in a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2009, in Cleveland. The Indians won 4-3. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Browse more photos »

After giving up three first-inning runs, Aaron Laffey and the rest of the Indians pitching staff held the Mariners off the board. Aaron had his share of troubles, giving up 10 base runners in his seven innings of work. But he kept the Indians in the game, and when Michael Saunders couldn't catch a relatively routine Luis Valbuena fly ball, the Indians were in a position to tie the game.

The most dramatic change as the season has gone on has been the bullpen's metamorphosis from basket case to a genuinely promising group of young relievers. Chris Perez, who has quickly become the top setup man on the team, recovered after giving up a leadoff double to retire the next three Mariners in the eighth. All three outs (two strikeouts and a fly ball) came with a runner on third. After Wood pitched the ninth, Eric Wedge went with matchup baseball, bringing in Tony Sipp, then Joe Smith, and finally Rafael Perez. Perez has been torched by left-handers this season, gave up a hard-hit single to the left-handed Saunders, but somehow got Ichiro to pop up harmlessly on a 3-0 pitch to end the top of the eleventh.

The Indians finally broke through in the bottom of the inning, when Luis Valbuena hammered a walk-off homer down the right field line.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Hernandez, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

HIghest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.509	Jhonny Peralta	-.228
Joe Smith	.230	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.214
Kerry Wood	.143	Shin-Soo Choo	-.148

Game 118: Angels 5, Indians 4

Ryan — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 02:52:53 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Andy Marte had no answer for Jason Bulger's Blur pitch.

Browse more photos »

Fausto Carmona didn't pass tonight's test against a hot Angels lineup. He gave up 10 hits and 2 walks in five innings of work, and five earned runs (three of them earned). His troubles really started in the second inning, when Andy Marte botched a bouncer with two outs. A run scored on the play, and the next hitter drove in the second run of the inning. But even in his scoreless innings, it took too many pitches to retire the side, and by the time the fifth inning rolled around, he was already approaching 100 pitches.

But even though the Indians gave were down 5-1 after three innings, they had many opportunities to climb back into the contest but just couldn't turn a rally into a big inning. Travis Hafner was the main culprit tonight, posting a -.464 WPA due to several poor at-bats with runners on. In the third inning, he struck out with the bases loaded and one out on a pitch in the dirt, and batting in the seventh with the same scenario, he grounded into a double play.

The bullpen again did yeoman's work, holding the Angels at bay while the offense attempted to come all the way back. Jensen Lewis pitched two scoreless innings following Carmona, and Rafael Perez had his slider working against right-handers in the eighth.

Weaver vs. Sowers, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jhonny Peralta	.223	Travis Hafner	-.464
Asdrubal Cabrera	.138	Fausto Carmona	-.232
Shin-Soo Choo	.087	Jamey Carroll	-.185