SB Nation - Vicente Padilla

Bargain Hunting Dodger Style

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:45:13 -0000

MLBTR has updated their 2010 Free Agent List with the recent non - tenders who have not signed. Not surprisingly the Dodgers do not appear tied to anyone at the moment. Over a month ago we looked at the 2010 Free Agent class not really knowing what direction the Dodgers would be going in. Now I'd say we know they are not spending much money and how much may depend on how or if they are able to move Pierre. It will be bargain basement hunting. Some of those Free Agents in Nov are now gone but the list has been padded with many non - tenders from Saturday. That is not to say the list has been added with very much talent. There is usually a good reason why someone has been non - tendered, however some players look interesting. Kelly Johnson for sure but I doubt we can afford him or even if Ned is interested.

So which of those names can the Dodgers afford now, or will some of them be available come Feb when they become desperate to find a team?

Wang has been mentioned because of Torre but I've yet to see an ex-Yankee show up on in the Dodger clubhouse so that relationship seems over used whenever a Yankee appears available. They couldn't get rid of Procter fast enough.

Our roster needs are minimal in the key positions other then 2nd base and a starting pitcher. We need a backup catcher and there are plenty of candidates there besides our own AJ Ellis. 2nd base is where the Dodger action will be focused. Maybe a utility infielder who is better than Hu. That should not be hard to find. A bat off the bench to replace Mientkiewicz or it may be Mientkiewicz again. If Pierre is dealt then a back up outfielder better than Repko or Paul.

Pitchers galore but are the ones we can afford any better then the in house options? To be honest I don't know what the price of Padilla is, but if we can get him for $4 Million on a one year deal I'd be all over that. Eric rightly said the Dodgers should run away from Padillia but he did add at the end of that article:

Unless the offer is a one-year contract for a few million bucks, perhaps with some incentives built in, the Dodgers should stay away from the Vicente Padilla sweepstakes. Otherwise, he is a bad gamble.

Back then (a month ago) we didn't know how much the Dodgers needed to gamble. Given the alternatives it might be the best gamble if the price is right. I'll probably find that someone just offered him $10 Million after saying we should do $4 Million but at $4 Million do you think it would be a bad gamble? No health issues, plenty of innings, and we all look better when standing next to him.

We don't need any rants about how McCourt sucks because we are bargain hunting. Work with what we have not with what we'd like to have if our budget was 2008 not 2009.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Day Two - Bruney, Pudge And Smoltz?

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:32:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Don't Stare At "Pudge" It Only Makes Him Angrier...Is Pudge Rodriguez coming to DC to start? Or is it Jesus Flores' job to lose? (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Brian Bruney's name was all but forgotten as the DC Faithful and the national press turned first to the story of the Washington Nationals signing 38-year-old catcher Paul L...uh, Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, and then to the three-way-deal between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, which of course dominated the headlines once it was announced. But that trade holds little interest for fans of the Washington Nationals, who were still naval-gazingly introspective as they pondered the significance of signing Rodriguez, and the effect it would have on Jesus Flores' future in the nation's capital. Oh, and Bruney, (while he said all the right things yesterday to the Washington press, telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in a Nationals Journal article entitled, "Bruney wants a chance to close", that he, "'...felt like New York was a good stepping stone with lots of pressure-filled situations. But to be honest, I had talked to my agent and I said, 'I can't wait to get to the place where I can try and close somewhere.'")...Bruney struck a slightly different tone in the New York press with New York Daily News' writer Mark Feinsand, in an article entitled, "New York Yankees trade Brian Bruney to Washington Nationals for draft pick", quoting Bruney saying that he believes, "...the opportunity is going to be better for me over there," with "there" of course being Washington, but, "Going from winning the World Series with the Yankees to playing for the Nationals," Bruney continues, "...that's going to be different." ...(ed. note - "And I know it will be "different", I wouldn't deny that, it's just that five years after the promise of change once the team was taken from Montreal, the Nationals are still talked about in such a condescending tone by everyone in baseball, even their own fans...")

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals And Lo D...uh "Pudge" Define The Word Backup.

• Ken Rosenthal: "Nats are Smoltz's Last Resort"

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals And Lo D...uh "Pudge" Define The Word Backup.

I wasn't the only one who wondered exactly what signing catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez said about the Nationals' plans for 2010 when I heard Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras on XM's Home Plate Update all day repeating the same assessment of his client's role in the nation's capital as the Nationals' newest backstop:

"Certainly in Washington, Pudge has an opportunity, particularly this year to play at a number that's well above that of a backup catcher, so he's going to be a significant contributor..."

Define "significant contributor"? According to Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling, that means Jesus Flores, "...could lose significant playing time to Rodriguez, who the Nationals expect to play 70-80 games." Not quite the mentor/teacher role everyone was talking about when the deal was first announced, and Mr. Goessling goes on to report that, in fact, "Washington had interest in Rodriguez since late this season, and he was their No. 1 option for a backup catcher." Is Flores not recovering as quickly as they had hoped? Will Flores be ready for the start of the season? Is Pudge Rodriguez still an everyday catcher? And if Flores isn't ready, who backs up Pudge? Please don't bring up Josh Willingham as an emergency catcher, or tell me about how Robert Fick is somewhere practicing...

How do the Nationals make a significant signing (pending Pudge passing his physical) and end up with more questions than they began the winter with?

• Ken Rosenthal: "Nats are Smoltz's Last Resort"

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal sent a Tweet out late this afternoon concerning the fate of 42-year-old free agent pitcher John Smoltz:

"Smoltz still possibility in STL. J. Garcia might not be ready to be No. 5. Smoltz could start and/or relieve. Nats are Smoltz's last resort."

Smoltz is still on the list of pitchers the Nationals are interested in according to former DC GM Jim Bowden, who put out a Twitter post today which read in part:

"Nats in on Garland, Pineiro, Padilla, Smoltz but not Lackey."

MLB.com's Bill Ladson said in a Tweet that, "The Nationals see Smoltz as a starter" and Mr. Ladson adds one name to that list with his own Tweet on the Nationals' targets:

"The Nats have interest in free-agent pitchers such as Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz and Jarrod Washburn."

The Meetings aren't over yet...

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

Dodgers Face Tuesday Decisions For Hudson, Wolf, Others

Eric Stephen — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 03:09:00 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

The extent of communication between Joe Torre and Orlando Hudson

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Tuesday could be an important day in determining the shape of the Dodger offseason. December 1 is decision day for clubs to offer arbitration to free agents in the top 40% at their respective positions. Players are ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau based on stats from the previous two seasons, and split into groups:

Type A free agents: in the top 20% of their respective position group
Type B free agents: in the top 40%, but not in the top 20%, of their respective position group

By offering arbitration, a club guarantees itself some form of compensation should the player decide to leave. Type A free agents net two draft picks to the former club -- one in the first round (unless that club has a protected pick in the top 15) and one supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, picks in subsequent rounds are used, and the former team of the higher-ranking free agent (based on the Elias rankings) gets the higher pick. For instance, last year the Yankees gave up picks in the first three rounds for signing Type A free agents Mark Teixeira (1st round to Angels), C.C. Sabathia (2nd round to Milwaukee), and A.J. Burnett (3rd round to Toronto). Type B free agents net just a supplemental pick.

If a player accepts arbitration, he is bound to the team for another year. Player and club each submit a salary figure sometime between January 5 and January 15, and if they don't come to a contract agreement on their own, will face off in an arbitration hearing sometime between February 1 and February 20.

The deadline to offer arbitration to these free agents is Tuesday night, December 1, at 9pm. Players have until Monday night, December 7, to accept or decline the offer.

Here's a look at the Type A and Type B free agents for the Dodgers:

Orlando Hudson

2009 Salary: $7.99 million

2009 Stats: .283/.353/.417, 109 OPS+, 2.9 WAR, 74 runs, 35 doubles, one cycle

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type A

Hudson is the litmus test for the offseason. Offering him arbitration should be a no-brainer. Hudson is exactly the type of player you would want back on a one-year deal. He compares favorably with all the other second base options, but if he accepts arbitration the Dodgers wouldn't be on the hook for a multi-year contract. But here's the thing: there is no way Hudson will accept arbitration. Hudson split time in September with Ronnie Belliard at second base, then the O-Dog was benched for the playoffs. As a player who was an All-Star this season, as well as a Gold Glover (deservedly or not), Hudson was rightfully miffed at his benching, as Ramona Shelburne noted last month in the LA Daily News:

According to Hudson, Torre never once called him into his office to discuss the situation, a slap in the face Hudson has trouble accepting.

"My teammates talked to me about it more than Joe did, but I never had any answers because (Torre) and I never talked," Hudson said. "There was no conversation."

Does this sound like someone who wants to come back? No way. But even if he does return, as unlikely as it seems, it would be good for the Dodgers. If the Dodgers are so risk averse as to try to avoid the infinitesimal chance the Hudson would cost them another $8 million or so, that's a bad sign. Only good things can happen by offering Hudson arbitration:

Hudson declines arbitration, signs elsewhere, and the Dodgers get two draft picks in 2010
Hudson accepts arbitration, Dodgers get a 2.5 to 3-win player for a one-year deal

If the Dodgers don't offer arbitration, it will be for monetary reasons only. Saving money in the short-term on things they should be spending money on will only hurt the team in the long run.

Prediction: I hope I'm wrong, but the Dodgers won't offer Hudson arbitration

Randy Wolf

2009 Salary: $8 million

2009 Stats: 11-7, 3.23 ERA, 122 ERA+, 4.00 FIP, 4.28 x-FIP, career high in starts (34), innings (214.1) and WHIP (1.101)

2010 Age: 33

2010 Free Agent Status: Type A

Wolf is another guy that would be great to have back on a one-year deal, another easy choice to offer arbitration. The starting pitching free agent market isn't so hot, and Wolf just might be the second-best free agent starter behind John Lackey. Wolf is bound to get a multi-year contract somewhere.

Prediction: Wolf gets offered arbitration

Ronnie Belliard

2009 Salary: $1.9 million

2009 Stats: .277/.351/.425, 105 OPS+, 1.3 WAR, 10 HR, 39 runs, 39 RBI in 287 PA

2010 Age: 35

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

Belliard would be a nice player to have back, a right-hander with some pop off the bench. He can spot start at second or third base, even if his glove scares the hell out of me at the hot corner. After 2007, he signed a two-year, $3.5 million contract following five years as a regular player. He is coming off two years as a sub (624 combined in 2008-2009), so I don't think he would get anything more than $1.5-$2 million in arbitration. I would offer Belliard arbitration, gladly taking either the supplemental pick or Mini Manny for 2010.

Prediction: Dodgers don't offer arbitration to Belliard

Vicente Padilla

2009 Salary: $12 million

2009 Stats: 12-6, 4.46 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.45 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 147.1 innings

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

After Padilla climbed his way up the Dodger starting pitching ladder to the top spot in October -- he was the only Dodger starter to make three starts in the postseason -- it would be hard for the club to argue against his worth in arbitration. That said, Padilla reeks of Jose Lima. If the Dodgers want him back, it's best to sign him to a deal smaller than he would receive in arbitration. The Dodgers are already way ahead on the Padilla transaction. It's better to pick up their chips and cash them in rather than buy in for another round.

Prediction: No; offering Padilla arbitration is the equivalent of shooting yourself in the leg

Jon Garland

2009 Salary: $7.25 million

2009 Stats: 11-13, 4.01 ERA, 111 ERA+, 4.48 FIP, 2.4 WAR, 204 innings

2010 Age: 30

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

With Garland, it is never pretty or flashy, as his career 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings suggest. However, Garland isn't a bad guy to have fill out the back end of a rotation: a league average or slightly below average pitcher that puts up 200 innings a year and doesn't miss a start. That said, if the Dodgers want Garland back, they would be better served to try to sign him to a lower deal on the open market rather than head to arbitration.

Prediction: No; if the Dodgers wanted to pay Garland anything significant in 2010, they wouldn't have declined his 2010 option.

Guillermo Mota

2009 Salary: $2.35 million

2009 Stats: 65.1 innings, 3.44 ERA, 115 ERA+, 4.12 FIP, 4.49 x-FIP, -0.1 WAR

2010 Age: 35

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

The Dodger bullpen is loaded as is. There is really no point to pay anything for someone who shouldn't be higher than sixth or seventh at best on the depth chart. Fun fact: Mota has the fifth best ERA+ ever (143) by a Dodger reliever (minimum 200 games).

Prediction: The Dodgers will not offer arbitration to Mota

Will Ohman

2009 Salary: $1.35 million

2009 Stats: 12.1 innings, 5.84 ERA, 68 ERA+, 7.93 FIP, 5.68 x-FIP, lots and lots of DL time

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

With George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo in the bullpen, Ohman is simply redundant as another lefty reliever. Ohman was hurt for most of the year, and I never got a chance to interview him, which is a shame because from some of the excerpts from spring training he seemed hilarious.

Prediction: No; like Garland, if the Dodgers wanted Ohman back, they would have picked up his 2010 option.

The Dodgers have seven decisions to make by Tuesday night. I think they should offer arbitration to three (Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard), but I believe they will only offer arbitration to Randy Wolf.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

Dodgers Should Know When To Walk Away, Know When To Run From Padilla

Eric Stephen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:18:48 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Vicente Padilla back for 2010? No thanks.

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I don't know what Vicente Padilla news was more troubling yesterday: that he was accidentally shot yesterday in a hunting accident, or that the Dodgers want him back. Look, don't get me wrong, Padilla pitched wonderfully for the Dodgers -- well, at least until Game 5 of the NLCS. Including the playoffs, Padilla pitched much better for the Dodgers than he did at any point with the Rangers:

Team	Years	G	IP	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA	FIP	WHIP	ERA+
Rangers	2006-2009	103	599.1	1.13	3.41	6.20	4.90	4.75	1.475	92
Dodgers	2009	11	56.2	1.11	2.54	8.10	3.34	3.80	1.129	125

Padilla's strikeout rate had plummeted the past few years with the Rangers, from 6.7 in 2007 to 5.9, to 4.9. Then it spiked with the Dodgers to 8.1. Is the difference between the two leagues really that great? Bringing Padilla back smacks of Jose Lima all over again. After 2004, the arbitration rules were different and actually helped prevent Lima's return after his out-of-nowhere performance. Bringing Lima back wasn't a good idea then -- he wasn't good for four years prior to joining the Dodgers, and his final 36 starts after leaving produced a 7.26 ERA, suggesting his performance in LA was a fluke -- and bringing back Padilla for 2010 isn't a good idea now.

Before we get swayed by 11 games, we should remember that upon his release by Texas, his Ranger teammates openly applauded their general manager for getting rid of Padilla. They hated him. Did Padilla's attitude change with his move to the Dodgers? Sure it did! He was on his best behavior because he was on a contract drive. Using the Manny Ramirez Principle, the Dodgers should only bring someone with a checkered past back if his two months with the club produced Hall of Fame-type numbers. Padilla was good, but he wasn't that good.

As for yesterday's shooting, that really doesn't concern me, at least for now. Padilla seems to be fine, according to his agent, so there aren't health concerns. This doesn't appear to be another Plaxico Burress situation, at least on the surface, so there aren't likely to be any legal concerns.

For what it's worth, the 2010 Bill James Handbook projects Padilla in 2010 to have a 4.66 ERA and 4.73 FIP. We know the Dodgers will likely sign at least one starting pitcher this offseason. Unless the offer is a one-year contract for a few million bucks, perhaps with some incentives built in, the Dodgers should stay away from the Vicente Padilla sweepstakes. Otherwise, he is a bad gamble.

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

SB Nation - Vicente Padilla

Bargain Hunting Dodger Style

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Day Two - Bruney, Pudge And Smoltz?

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodgers Face Tuesday Decisions For Hudson, Wolf, Others

Orlando Hudson

Randy Wolf

Ronnie Belliard

Vicente Padilla

Jon Garland

Guillermo Mota

Will Ohman

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

Dodgers Should Know When To Walk Away, Know When To Run From Padilla

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Starters

Bullpen