SB Nation - Nelson Cruz

T.R. Sullivan mailbag up

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:28:05 -0000

T.R. Sullivan has a new mailbag column up...

A couple of items that jumped out...someone suggests trading David Murphy and Chris Davis for Curtis Granderson. Of course, that wouldn't get you close to getting a deal done...but then Sullivan suggests that if you are going to pay Granderson the $30 million he's due over the next four years, you'd be better off paying Marlon Byrd. The problem there, of course, is that Granderson is a much better player than Byrd, particularly defensively.

There's also a question about giving up Edwin Jackson, who Sullivan says would cost C.J. Wilson and Nelson Cruz or David Murphy. I wouldn't trade any of those three guys for Jackson straight up, personally. Edwin Jackson isn't that good.

Other teams interested in Nelson Cruz

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 01:35:59 -0000

More photos » by LM Otero - AP

8 months ago: Texas Ranges Nelson Cruz hits a home run in the second inning of the baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, April 14, 2009. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

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According to Ken Rosenthal, "a number of teams" have called the Rangers inquiring about Nelson Cruz, but the Rangers aren't motivated to move him.

Last offseason, I identified Cruz as a guy I would try to use as part of a package to land a top-flight starting pitcher in the 09-10 offseason, figuring that a year of productiveness would get him to the point where it made sense to convert him into something else.

But that was before Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis nose-dived, leaving Cruz as one of the few quality bats in place right now. Last year, I thought a David Murphy/Brandon Boggs platoon in left field, Julio Borbon in center field, and Josh Hamilton in right field would be good, with Justin Smoak and Chris Davis holding down the first base and DH spots. Now, every one of those guys is a question mark, meaning that if you move Cruz, you had better do it intending to bring in at least one more quality bat.

But I do think it is revealing that Cruz is drawing interest from around the league...

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

View full size photo »

Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Total Zone says Nelson Cruz is a great defender

Adam J. Morris — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

8 months ago: Texas Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz leaps to pull in a deep fly ball from Cleveland Indians' Victor Martinez during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, April 8, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Over at THT, Sean Smith takes MLBAM's Ball in Play data and runs the numbers for Total Zone calculations for every player in the majors, and lists the top 15 in the majors.

The second-best defender in the major leagues -- at any position -- is Nelson Cruz, at +23, behind only Seattle's Franklln Gutierrez.

This jumps out at me because of the sharp divide between the stats and the reputation, when it comes to Nelson Cruz's defensive abilities.

One of the most common refrains you heard from the D/FW baseball media has been that Cruz has to be better defensively, that Ron Washington doesn't trust him in right field and that while his bat was solid, his defense may cost him a regular job in Texas. This is commonly echoed by the fans, who claim that he's a "butcher" based on poor routes, with Mike Rhyner going so far this summer as to say that he's the worst defensive outfielder the Rangers have had in years.

And yet, just about all the advanced defensive stats say Cruz is terrific defensively. UZR and +/- have him as well above-average, along with Total Zone. If you look at Revised Zone Rating, Cruz is middle of the pack defensively among right fielders, but when you incorporate the "Out Of Zone" component that goes with that (tracking balls Cruz made plays on that are outside of his regular zone), Cruz jumps up to the top of the pack.

Will Carroll talked, at Newberg Night, about how the teams have defensive stats that are superior to the "off the shelf" stuff that we fans have access to. And it may be that the Rangers' proprietary data shows that Cruz is terrible.

And yet...the Rangers went from being one of the worst defensive teams in the majors last season, in terms of balls being turned into outs, to one of the best in 2009. And it isn't all a result of Elvis Andrus.

We know that centerfield wasn't good defensively in 2009. We know that third base was, at best, average, likely worse. Shortstop and second base were very good, first base was okay. But it doesn't seem that outrageous to suggest that right field was one of the areas that contributed significantly to the Rangers' terrific run prevention in 2009.

Defensive stats are still imperfect...I have a lot less confidence in what the advanced defensive stats than in the advanced offensive stats, and I think triangulating between the various methods that incorporate ball-in-play data is necessary to get a handle on what is happening.

But I really struggle with the idea that a guy who came to Texas with a reputation for being a stellar defensive right fielder, and who the advanced stats all show was a great defensive right fielder in 2009, is in fact a defensive liability who is dragging the team down out there.

It is a not insignificant difference. if Cruz is a great fielder, then the Rangers probably need to plan on him staying in right field for 2010. If he isn't, then the Rangers are better off shopping him to a team that is looking for a cheap young power hitter, and looking for an upgrade in right, be it with Josh Hamilton or someone outside the organization.

The Braves need a right-handed power bat. Let the guessing begin!

gondeee — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:50:49 -0000

Last year it was Peavy-gate and all the Peavy talk you could handle for a solid month or two. This season, the press hasn't really nailed down anyone to pin on the Braves but several folks are trying. Here's SI's John Heyman:

The Braves may consider going after Matt Holliday, who made a huge error in St. Louis' Game 2 loss but is the biggest star who'll hit the free-agent market. Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt has said they are going to try hard to re-sign Holliday, and other candidates appear to be the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Giants. Over the last four years, Holliday ranks second in doubles (172), fourth in batting average (.325), fifth in hits (767) and runs (440), sixth in slugging (.563) and OPS (.962) and seventh in RBIs (448).

Hey, man, speculate much? This is even more speculative than the normal speculation. There's not even an anonymous front office source, or a rival GM who "has a feeling," just a bold statement of un-fact.

Our own David O'Brien fired up the hot stove of speculation this morning with this reference to who we might go after:

Anyway, here's a name that I think will come up next week: Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz. [...] If the Braves had traded for him instead of signing Garret Anderson, hey, they'd have probably been a better team. But the same could be said for Bobby Abreu and other relatively low-cost options).

But anyway, Cruz is right-handed and hit .260 with 33 homers, 20 stolen bases and an .856 OPS in 128 games, and while his .931 OPS at hitter-friendly Arlington was a lot higher than his .778 on the road, he hit almot as many homers (15) on the road than at home (18) in virtually the same number of at-bats.

Along with speculating, O'Brien plays the what-if game in virtually the same sentence.

At this rate, by the time the World Series is over the collective baseball speculativerse will have mentioned every single right-handed power bat... and probably a few lefties as well. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR doesn't have that kind of time to just wait around, so he goes ahead and lists everyone that the Braves might even be remotely interested in. Actually, he does a good job of pointing out a whole bunch of people I hope the Braves have no interest in...

Buckle-up folks, it's going to be another long hot stove.

Saturday a.m. Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:02:19 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

2 months ago: Seattle Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki, right, walks to the dugout as Texas Rangers catcher Taylor Teagarden returns the ball after Suzuki struck out in the seventh inning of a MLB baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, at Safeco Field in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Two games to go. Texas has sole possession of second place locked up, and regardless of what happens the next two days, this season has to be viewed as a success.

Anthony Andro says it was the young Ranger hitters -- Julio Borbon, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus, and Chris Davis -- that led the way last night.

Brandon McCarthy got yanked in the fifth, and I was surprised he got pulled so soon, given that he appeared to be pitching okay and his pitch count wasn't that high. McCarthy apparently was surprised as well:

"I felt like I threw really well today," he said. "There were a few pitches here and there I’d like to have back, but for the most part there aren’t many pitches I wouldn’t throw going back at them again. I’m out there giving it my all and I’d love to have the confidence put in me."

Julio Borbon is going to play in center the next three games; meanwhile, Ron Washington says he doesn't expect Nelson Cruz to be able to play again this season because of his ankle. Washington indicated he didn't even bother to check with Cruz to see if he could go yesterday.

Among the coaches, only Mike Maddux has a contract for 2010, but Ron Washington says he wants everyone back next year.

Tuesday morning Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:19:21 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

2 months ago: The Los Angeles Angels mob the field after clinching the AL West title with an 11-0 win over the Texas Rangers in an MLB baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Monday, Sept. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

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And that's that.

It has been a very good season overall, one that makes you feel a lot better about the 2010 timeframe, but you also can't help but feel that this was a missed opportunity for the Rangers.

Jim Reeves' game story says the Angels jumped on the Rangers early and just didn't let them up.

Ron Washington says that Nelson Cruz will be back in the lineup today. Michael Young was in the lineup, but wasn't 100%, and it wouldn't surprise me if Young and Josh Hamilton sat the rest of the way, given their conditions.

Marlon Byrd says he wants to come back to the Rangers in 2010.

And Reeves has a column about the Rangers' need to have Josh Hamilton in the lineup on a regular basis, with Reeves saying there are now those questioning Hamilton's willingness to play through pain.

Sunday morning Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 16:28:15 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

2 months ago: Texas Rangers relief pitcher Frank Francisco reacts following the last out against the Los Angeles Angels in the ninth inning of a baseball game , Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. The Rangers won 3-2. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Hey, a win!

Jeff Wilson notes that the Rangers weren't exactly hammering the ball last night, but got enough breaks to get enough runs in to prevail.

Jeff (the writer) Miller talks about Hank Blalock being in the center of things yesterday, with his home run giving the Rangers their margin of victory, and his error in the 9th making things a lot more interesting.

The Rangers sacrificed defense on the corners yesterday to get Hank's bat in the lineup, and that move worked...that said, it was a bit baffling that the Rangers didn't bring Omar Vizquel in for the 9th at third base, sliding Chris Davis over to first base, for defensive purposes. Per Miller's article, Washington says that it was "a trust thing," leaving Blalock in at first and Davis in at third, although in retrospect, he acknowledges is was a mistake.

Jim Reeves says that the Rangers are still alive, if just barely, and has some quotes from Washington about the non-move in the 9th and putting Hank back in the lineup.

Anthony Andro has some notes up, including Scott Feldman's reaction to being pulled in the 7th, and the news that yesterday's crowd was a sellout -- the 4th of the season.

T.R. Sullivan has a story up about Rudy Jaramillo and the struggles of the Ranger offense this year.

Kevin Sherrington says the Ranger outfield next year should be Nelson Cruz in left, Julio Borbon in center, and Marlon Byrd in right, with Josh Hamilton as the 4th outfielder, but notes that the problems with that alignment include Byrd's pending free agency and that "Cruz isn't a favorite of the manager."

Matt Purke doesn't regret his decision not to sign with the Rangers.

Kevin Richardson says he understands his role with the team, and isn't complaining about only having caught one innings since coming back up.

Phil Rogers' baseball notes column this week has a headline saying that "Nolan Ryan Could Be Leaving" the Rangers, but the segment in question simply notes that Ryan doesn't have a written contract and says he'd step aside if new ownership didn't want him around.

American League Home Run Chase 2009 - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:03:35 -0000

With Carlos Pena out for the season with two broken fingers, can Mark Teixeira take the AL Home Run Crown? Does Jason Bay make a run, or does Russell Branyan complete his unlikely season and put some distance in between himself and Nelson Cruz?

Full chart available HERE.

Poll

Who will take the AL Home Run Crown?

Carlos Pena (out for season)

28 votes

Mark Teixeira

184 votes

Jason Bay

6 votes

Russell Branyan

7 votes

Nelson Cruz

8 votes

Somebody else

4 votes

237 votes | Poll has closed

Graph of the Day: Texas Rangers Value Over Contract

Justin Bopp — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:00:32 -0000

Sabermetrics are simple, and almost universally driven towards a single idea: the separation of one player’s performance from that of his peers. All analysis is based on the idea of prudently addressing scarcity: too few players of the otherworldly talent level required at the Major League Baseball level, too few positions on a team that any can be wasted while expecting success, too little money to get all of the best who are freely available for hire.

The time and effort of so many has been spent addressing how to handle the scarcity of those positions on the baseball field, and their relative talent pool. In fact, it’s what we commonly refer to as "replacement level". How good is he, and how easy would he be to replace? So let’s address the financial impact of this supply and demand. What should he cost? Is your team getting their money’s worth on an individual level? What about as a group? There are some obstacles to finding out.

Baseball contracts are convoluted and archaic, a house’s roof never replaced but simply layered over repeatedly. There are arbitrators and option years, something called a "super two" and slotting recommendations and apparently five rules relating to player drafts, and minor league options and performance incentives and international free agents. As is usually the case, this bureaucracy is the result of legal toil between workers and those that sign their checks, a decades-long war between lawyers representing those with the money and those doing the work. What we end up with when we glue all the pieces together is sort of a lucrative facsimile of Roman gladiators: win your financial freedom through time and toil.

Despite the difficulties, good baseball players aren’t that easy to replace. This isn’t the NFL. Your first overall draft pick is not anticipated to be a major contributor three months later. The learning curve is simply too high. So in order to replace production immediately, free agency (or in rare cases international free agency) are your only available methods. And free agency costs, as you may have heard somewhere.

This is what Value Over Contract (VOC) attempts to establish:

How much more (or less) is a player is giving their team in free agency dollars versus what his contract is paying him. It is important to be taken in context: if all teams had precisely the same payroll, then the highest VOC team would be the best: this is obviously not true. But with the wild variation, it helps identify payroll efficiency (one of sabermetrics’ earliest stated goals), and also sheds a fair amount of light on just how hard it is to win at this game without money.

So, that being said, let’s look how this works with a team vying for the playoffs, the Texas Rangers:

(full size chart HERE)

What a difference 5 years can make in the direction of a franchise. From the shadow of a burdensome contract for the then best player in baseball in Alex Rodriguez, to only two remaining contracts of 10 million or more (with the mercy killing of Vicente Padilla and his 12 million dollars, his color coded burden clearly seen above), the Rangers have put together a team that is worth almost twice what they paid for it, with very few relative disasters to speak of.

1B/DH Hank Blalock – The end of a sad era that symbolizes lost potential, the contract that Blalock signed in 04 expires at the end of this season, and you’ve almost certainly seen the last of him in Arlington. Like fellow Texas Ranger Mark Prior, it’s hard to believe he’s only 28, but his story is even stranger. Seldomly do you see the best a player has to offer by a player in his age 23 year, despite some mitigating circumstances that I would not dare suggest. (Did something happen with the Rangers in 03? I remember hearing some talk.) He has 23 HR, but as the numbers on the VOC chart would suggest for a 1B/DH in Texas, big whoop. Chris Davis will have his spot next year.

3B Michael Young – The Rangers are definitely playing with some fire here. UZR was never a member of the Mike Young fanclub when he was a shortstop, and it absolutely hates him at third (UZR/150 suggests he’ll drop to 10 runs below replacement). Few players at this age who show that sort of rapid decline after accounting for a negative move along the defensive spectrum have any good news pending. In addition, he’s having the second best offensive season of his career, which probably isn’t sustainable. For a highly paid 32 year old, he’s burning the wick at both ends and could become a liability by next season … with 3 pretty generous years remaining on his deal. Despite the positive aspects (he has an offensive skillset that ages well), if the Rangers can find a winter trade suitor, they should pull the trigger, even for mid-level prospects.

OF Nelson Cruz – The field-good story of north Texas baseball. His combination of offense, defense and low cost make him a perfect fit for this kind of study, and he deserves his position on the list. He’s so late to the party at 28 that again, especially under cost control when some decent prospects can be netted, it would be wise to shop him around. A loaded talent system gives the Rangers the flexibility to move players like this, making talent begat talent – I can think of a number of teams that could learn a lesson from that.

SS Elvis Andrus – Okay, that was two suggestions of winter trades in a row, so let’s break up the streak. Rangers: unless blackmailed, or you discover Andrus has a methamphetamine problem, or you’re offered the entire Texas League for him, do NOT move Elvis Andrus. The defense is certainly there. The bat isn’t horrible for a shortstop and will develop. Did I mention he’s 20 years old? A quiet superstar in the making and worthy of building a franchise around.

Tomorrow: Texas Salary Breakdown and an Open Letter to Jon Daniels and John Hart

Credit - Walter Fulbright, Article; Justin Bopp, Chart