SB Nation - Kevin Millwood

Did The Orioles Reach On Garrett Atkins?

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

In addition to Mike Gonzalez, the Orioles have reportedly inked corner infielder, Garrett Atkins, to a one-year deal believed to be in the neighborhood of $4 million dollars. Andy MacPhail is easily one of my favorite GM's after Andrew Freidman, but in a market that has multiple cheaper alternatives, I question the signing of Atkins at $4 million dollars.

It's no secret that Atkins's numbers have declined in each of the last four seasons. It's also not a secret The Rockies have been trying to ship him out of Colorado for quite some time before finally non-tendering him last weekend. After posting a career high wOBA of .410 in 2006, Atkins bottomed out last season and finished with a .291 wOBA. Accompanying that wOBA dip, is a dip in ISO. Once again, after a career high in 2006 of .228, Atkins' ISO was a dismal .116 in 2009. It's true, his HR/FB rate was down around three percent from his normal 10%, but for a player that just recently turned 30, a rapidly declining ISO is not a good sign.

His 2009 BABIP shows there is some regression due for Atkins, but that wouldn't explain all of the power outage. It might produce some more doubles, but hard to see it justifying the major collapse. The good news is Atkins does show a decent batting eye. He will collect a walk nearly 10% of the time while keeping the strikeouts around 15%. Defensively, he is on a rare upward UZR swing for a player headed into his thirties, but a sample size warning; he has played less than 1,000 innings in the field each of the last two seasons.

Much like the Gonzalez deal, the Orioles aren't taking a big risk here; however, is this move really necessary? We know Joshua Bell isn't ready, but I don't see the reason to pay Atkins $4 million dollars to be the stop gap; especially in this market. The going rate on a win in this early market seems to be around $3-3.5 million. Nick Johnson, a likely 2-win player, is about to sign a one-year deal worth around $6 million. For five or six potential wins, the Orioles have spent at least $19 million dollars on Atkins, Gonzalez and Kevin Millwood. That is not much over the market's current rate, still given their likely standing in the division, I don't see the need to pay sticker price in what is shaping up as a buyer's market.

If the Orioles really wanted a corner infielder who could impact them winning the pennant in 2010, this guy is a free agent and can be had for less than $4 million.

Holliday's Mystery Suitor: Baltimore

DanUpBaby — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:51:00 -0000

Nothing says Lukewarm Stove season like a rebuilding team making bids on the biggest remaining free agent contract of the offseason. I don't want to start doubting Scott Boras now, because he's given me no reason to in the past, but if the Orioles are being floated as the other team this late in the game—well, the Yankees and Mets are presumably way under the radar on this one.

I actually wouldn't hate this move from Baltimore's standpoint. They've got a pretty good system, with some young pitching set to renovate what was a hilariously bad rotation—they collectively managed 58 quality starts, six fewer than the next team and 41 fewer than league leading Atlanta—and signing Garrett Atkins and trading for Kevin Millwood are low-risk moves that will be an easy upgrade from Melvin Mora and the back of that rotation's awful work. The Orioles, like the Pirates in the NL Central, simply can't afford to be terrible any more; their attendance has fallen into a huge hole and they're in a division that squashes the hopes and dreams of plucky fans as a matter of course. Their moves in this offseason have pushed them toward being respectable in the short term without hindering their chances of being good in the long term.

But while spending a ton of money on a free agent would be the perfect capper to an offseason designed to inspire fanbase confidence, this is not the right offseason, and Matt Holliday is not the right free agent. The Orioles already have too many cheap, effective outfielders—Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, perpetual tradebait Luke Scott, and former Cubs super-prospect and erstwhile hometown discount inducer Felix Pie are all competing for at-bats—and all of their most pressing needs, and the easiest places to pick up runs against a troupe of very real replacement players, are on the pitching side. O's management seems to have understood that to this point, replacing their worst players with some potentially average players and Mike Gonzalez. Holliday would be a step back from that plan.

Of course, the Orioles not making their rumored move does not mean the Cardinals do sign him, as wonderful a system as that would be. All that implausibility still leaves Matt Holliday wanting more than $128 million, and the Cardinals (reasonably) not wanting quite that much Matt Holliday.

The payroll is not a gift card; the money DeWitt is planning to spend right now does not expire, and if he spends it all in the next thirty days he will not receive an even larger inheritance. But the Cardinals' other options are looking increasingly unappetizing. From a blurb about how the Cardinals are not interested in Chien-Ming Wang, but might be:

The Cardinals have said if they fail to re-sign Holliday they could turn to signing a veteran starting pitcher for the fifth spot in the rotation. Their preference would be to do so on a one-year deal.

Try not to be too excited about that sentence, or this one, because according to VEB's hit-tracker you're probably reading it at work: if the Cardinals do not manage to sign a popular, slugging outfielder to the largest contract in the history of the franchise, thereby setting its course for the next decade, they could sign a veteran starting pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year deal. For all we know, this conditional has been around for the last several years—the Cardinals didn't sign Matt Holliday in any of them, and as a result picked up Kyle Lohse, Kip Wells, Brett Tomko, and Matt Clement.

I don't envy Mozeliak and DeWitt here; this is simply awful timing for the Cardinals' last serious free-payroll run at the free agent market before they need to worry about Pujols. Jason Bay, whose contractual demands—he might want five years—are relatively piddling, is the only other Big Name player on the market, and the defensive collapse brought on by his knee problems in 2007 makes him a much riskier upgrade. If Holliday falls through, that's it; for all their good intentions, the Cardinals will have little choice but to have a typical Cardinals offseason.

If that means an outfield cobbled together from spare parts, here's my current pick—a Jack Cust/Allen Craig platoon with a variation on the old Killer Bees tag team trick. La Russa has them both wear masks, and between innings Brendan Ryan is used to create a distraction; if pro wrestling has taught me anything, and it has, the umpire won't know that Craig has secretly taken left field while his back was turned.

Non-Holliday front: Future Redbirds has begun counting down their top twenty Cardinals prospects. Notable, given our discussion of Sickels's list: Bryan Anderson rates thirteenth.

New T.R. Sullivan mailbag up

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:33:11 -0000

T.R. Sullivan has a new mailbag up...

A question about why the Rangers would give up a reliable starter like Kevin Millwood for two guys who are always hurt, a question about Ben Sheets (who is apparently the new "red uniforms" as far as mailbags go), and a question about what the Rangers have to do to become a "model franchise" like the Cowboys (which I thought was pretty unintentionally hilarious), among other things...

Check it out...

Beyond The Box Score On The Rangers Dealing Kevin Millwood To Orioles & Signing Rich Harden

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:19:12 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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As I sit at home with a sick child processing the happenings of the winter meetings, I figure now is a good time to catch Beyond The Boxscore up on the moves we've missed. Luckily, the bulk of the moves involve similar teams so we can consolidate some posts in the process.

Two moves that seem related to one another are the Rangers trading former ace Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for former closer Chris Ray; then turning right around and adding a pitcher with ace stuff in Rich Harden. SInce I don't follow the team closely, I'm not sure one deal officially led to another, but for a team that has money issues the timing seemed coincidental.

Moving Millwood and $3 million in cash to Baltimore cleared up $9 million dollars for 2010. If you include Chris Ray's expected salary of ~$1 million, then the savings are closer to $8 million. Harden will cost the Rangers $7.5 in 2010. The team also holds a team option for 2011 of over $11 million dollars.

Rangers fans shouldn't expect much from Ray. After a solid first two season with the Orioles, injuries have turned Ray into an average-to-below-average middle reliever. He missed the Majors in 2008 completely, and hasn't posted a sub 4.1 FIP season since his rookie campaign in 2005.

This previous season his FIP sat about the five mark and his tRA over six. He still shows good velocity after Tommy John surgery, and he did carry a ridiculous BABIP of .402 last season. However, home runs have been a problem in the past and remain. Because of his 7+ ERA, he won't get much of a raise in arbitration, if any. From the Rangers stand point, the move is what it is; a salary dump with a potential useful reliever thrown in the mix.

For the Orioles, they get a veteran starter to anchor a pretty young rotation. Millwood had a dandy 3.67 ERA in 2009, however, his 4.80 FIP, 4.78 xFIP, and 5.61 tRA don't speak highly of the soon-to-be 35-year-old's 2009 season. He doesn't strike out many and his 85.2% contact rate tells you he doesn't miss many bats. Since posting a 5.1 WAR in 2006, Millwood has averaged 2.8 WAR over the last three. At $9 million dollars, he should give the Orioles fair value, but isn't anything special. The move to the AL East will probably take some adjusting, but given the fact that he's probably one and done on rebuilding Baltimore team, it shouldn't really much matter.

A year after leaving the NL West, Rich Harden returns home to replace Millwood in the Rangers rotation. Nolan Ryan gets himself a hard-throwing ,strikeout pitcher, but I'm not sure that Harden fits the 300 inning/150 pitch per game starter that Ryan dreams about. He has topped 30 starts just once in his career, and has never pitched over 189 innings in a given season. Most likely Harden will give you 22-25 starts and 140 innings.

He shows flashes of brilliance as seen in his 2008 numbers, but is equally as frustrating as shown in his fourth starter-ish 2009 numbers. He does get a lot of K's which will put a smile on Nolan's face, and is the owner of some ridiculous contact rates which show how good his stuff can be. The only qualified starter with a sub 70% contact rate, Harden has produced swinging strike percentages north of 13% in each of the last five seasons and over 15% in two of the last three. The talent is there, unfortunately more often than not it's accompanied by a trainer. If healthy, Harden could give Texas a major boost in the increasingly competitive AL West.

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

On Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Chris Ray, and the Rangers

Adam J. Morris — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:08:01 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Kevin Millwood likes pickles and mustard, mmm hmmm. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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This was certainly an interesting flurry of events.

And the 2010 Rangers certainly are a different team today than they were yesterday. Are they better? Not necessarily. But they are different, and I think that the team as it stands today is more likely to make the playoffs than the team that the Rangers had yesterday.

So, Kevin Millwood. He's an Oriole now. His 4 year run in Texas was a mixed bag, with his final two seasons here prefaced by offseasons where his purported re-dedication to conditioning was a big story. It was kickboxing after 2007, Nolan Ryan getting all up in his grill in 2008, and in neither case did there appear to be a big improvement in Millwood's performance.

Bob Sturm, tweeting earlier today, referred to Millwood as a "horse." The problem is, in the second half of 2009, the horse Millwood resembled was Barbaro. I think everyone realized the sub-3 ERA Millwood of the first half of the season was a mirage, driven by a great defense behind him, an exceptionally low BABIP, and a ridiculous strand rate that wasn't going to be sustainable. There was going to be regression to the mean. But Millwood after the All Star Break went way beyond regression, with his performance completely tanking in July and August, at the same time the offense disappeared.

And Millwood fading as the summer progressed shouldn't be an unexpected development...he's had problems staying healthy and on the mound the last three years, and he was 34 last year. He's not a great athlete. He's not a Nolan Ryan or a Steve Carlton, a guy who is a conditioning fanatic. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's also not a horse, a guy you can roll out there for 34 starts (like he gave you in 2006) and count on 7 quality innings. He's just a guy, a LAIE, not the #1 the Rangers signed him to be.

And the reality is, the Rangers probably sold high on him. Millwood posted a 3.67 ERA last season despite having peripherals no better than in his two previous 5+ ERA seasons. In fact, it isn't unreasonable to argue that 2009 was his worst season as a Ranger, in terms of pitching as compared to results...his 4.80 FIP was his worst as a Ranger, his 5.61 tRA was his worst as a Ranger, his K rate was his worst as a Ranger, his K/BB ratio was his worst as a Ranger, and his home run rate was his worst as a Ranger.

And anticipating the "he was pitching to contact and getting more ground balls" argument, his GB/FB ratio was also his worst as a Ranger.

Bottom line, Millwood was solid last year, but not special. He wasn't exceptionally reliable, he faded down the stretch, and, given that he's turning 35 in two weeks, he's a lot more likely to get worse than get better in 2010.

That said, Millwood has value. In particular, he has more value to a team that desperately needs a veteran to eat innings and give the team starts. The Rangers teams of the past, the ones that were looking at Aaron Myette and Ryan Glynn, or the Johns Rheinecker and Wasdin, as its alternatives in the rotation, were the type of team that would have killed for a Millwood, a guy who wasn't great, but was steady and was a solid bet to give you 30 starts a year.

But that's not the 2010 Rangers. The Rangers, as has been talked about at length, have assembled a significant amount of pitching depth in the organization. Looking at rotation options, you've got Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland, and Brandon McCarthy as likely candidates to be in the Opening Day rotation. And then you've got Neftali Feliz knocking on the door. You've got Dustin Nippert, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 2009 and a 4.27 FIP, and who looked like he can fill in as a spot starter without embarrassing you. You've got Matt Harrison and Eric Hurley coming back from injuries. And there's guys like Guillermo Moscoso and Luis Mendoza and Kasey Kiker and possibly even Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez hanging around.

This is a team that, should they have a guy missed a start or six, it shouldn't kill them. And the better your sixth and seventh and eighth starters are, the more it makes sense for you to prefer a higher-ceiling, less reliable starter over the safer pick.

Which brings us to Rich Harden, who I talked about last week, when word first came out that the Rangers were interested in him.

And you know...all the talk about Harden makes it sound like we're talking about Glass Joe as the new Ranger starter. But Harden started 51 games from 2008-09, an average of 25.5 per season. Millwood started 60, an average of 30 per season. The difference between the two the last couple of years isn't as great as one would initially believe. As Lookout Landing pointed out earlier today, Harden has as many starts over the past two years as John Lackey, and no one is freaking out about how signing Lackey would cripple a rotation because he can't be counted on to stay healthy.

That said, Harden also missed most of the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and the only reason he's available on a relatively cheap one year deal (with a team option) is because his health has teams scared off. And his homer rate jumped dramatically last season, causing his FIP to creep above 4 for the year. That was driven primarily by a 15% HR/FB rate, though, which is abnormally high...Harden's xFIP was 3.70, right in line with his career mark of 3.75.

There are no guarantees with any pitcher, especially not one with Harden's injury history. But the track record suggests that when Harden goes out to the mound, he'll be better than any starter the Rangers have had in over a decade. 20 starts of Harden and 12 from Nippert is, I think, significantly better than 32 starts from Millwood. And Harden gives you someone you would feel good about starting in game 1 of a playoff series, something you can't really say about Millwood.

As for Chris Ray...whatever. He's a guy who had a good arm and mixed results, then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed two years. Tampa supposedly really likes him, so he could end up going there for Dioner Navarro, or packaged a la Terrmel Sledge in another deal for another piece in the coming days. If not, he'll likely make $1-1.5 million in 2010 and get a chance to set up Frankie Francisco and be the much sought after power righty arm that the Rangers need in the bullpen.

So, all in all, I like these moves. And yet...there's the fly in the ointment, the big negative elephant in the room that overlays all of this.

The Rangers are a better team with Rich Harden and Kevin Millwood than with Rich Harden and Chris Ray. The Rangers are better with Harden and Millwood fronting the rotation than with just Harden. The Rangers, given the paucity of significant salaries in place, should not be having to dump salary to add Rich Harden.

And yet, that was apparently a prerequisite for a deal. At this point, the signals suggest that the Rangers still have very little money to spend, meaning that a big market team that had a $67 million payroll last year, a payroll that has had a sub-$70 million payroll for 6 years running, and has justified it by saying that the team would spend money when the team warranted it, is apparently seeing its payroll drop to below $60 million for 2010.

2010, the year that the front office has been pointing to when they were planning to have a contender. 2010, the year after an 87 win season, a second place finish, and renewed optimism and enthusiasm about the club.

Instead of jumping payroll to $80 million, instead of adding Harden and keeping Millwood and maybe also getting a Ben Sheets or a Nick Johnson or someone else that could fill a need and contribute to a playoff contender, the team is having to get creative in order to add help while cutting payroll from 2009's levels.

And maybe this is premature. Maybe the team will continue pursuing Ben Sheets, or will go spend the money on a Troy Glaus or a Hideki Matsui or another middle of the order bat that would require just a one year deal, but that would actually, you know, be good.

But it still is kind of depressing that the very exciting news of Harden's addition was only made possible because the team dumped one of the two big contracts it had on the books. It is just another instance of how Tom Hicks has damaged this franchise, and another embarrassing reminder of how this franchise is crippled by having to operate on the cheap.

Orioles close to deal for Kevin Millwood

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:07:39 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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The Orioles are closing in on a deal that would send relief pitcher Chris Ray to the Rangers for veteran starter Kevin Millwood and cash.

The Orioles have been searching for a veteran arm to anchor that at young rotation, and Millwood certainly fits the bill.

Report: Deal in Place to send Millwood to Baltimore for Chris Ray

Stacey — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:02:28 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

Looks like Kevin Millwood is an Oriole.(AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

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EDIT [Stacey, 11:08 PM]: This is officially a done deal. Ray and a PTBNL to the Rangers, Millwood and cash to the O's. Lots of feel good quotes and such in this Sun article

Per Jeff Zriebec at the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles have a tentative deal in place with the Texas Rangers that would bring starting pitcher Kevin Millwood to the Orioles and send up-and-down relief pitcher Chris Ray to the Rangers. The Rangers would also send an undetermined amount of money to the Orioles to help offset Millwood's $12M salary. The deal is contingent upon review of medical records but could be finished by this evening.

I went on record just over a week ago with my belief that Kevin Millwood would be a bad pickup for the Orioles. I'm still not super excited about it, but the fact is that Chris Ray is hardly worth getting upset over. It's clear the Rangers needed to dump salary and this is how they chose to do so. It's clear the Orioles wanted to pick up a veteran starter and this his how they chose to do so.

In 2009 the Orioles desperately needed a pitcher who could pitch deep into games, and it's likely Millwood will give them that in 2010. In 31 starts in 2009, Millwood went at least 5 innings in all but two starts, one of which was due to a rain delay. He pitched at least 6 innings in 23 of his starts. In his 13 year career Millwood has averaged 178 innings/year and has that includes his rookie year in 1997 when he threw 51 innings over 12 starts. For his career he averages 6.133 innings/game.

I don't hate this deal. I don't love it, but I don't hate it. Best case scenario is that Millwood gives the Orioles more than 6 innings/start and is flipped for a few extra players after Jake Arrieta has established that he's ready to join the rotation. Mid-case he's with the O's all year, provides stability, and gives the bullpen a break. Worst case is that his 35 year old body will start to break down and the O's will have spent a load of cash on nothing.

So welcome to Birdland, Kevin Millwood. Treat us right and we'll like you ok.

As for the player leaving the birds, Chris Ray has had a few shining moments with the Orioles but in recent history has proven to be expendable. He'd been with the club since 2005, the only Oriole who could say that other than Brian Roberts. After a good rookie season setting up B.J. Ryan, Ray took the sting out of Ryan's departure by earning 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA (167 ERA+) in 2006. A substandard 2007 was cut short by injury and he missed the entire 2008 season after having elbow surgery. The O's had high hopes for him in 2009 but he couldn't deliver. He bounced between the O's, AAA Norfolk, and the disabled list, racking up a 7.27 ERA in 46 appearances.

I always liked Chris Ray, but it got so that I didn't like seeing him come into games. Godspeed, young man. Thanks for 2006.