SB Nation - Frank Francisco

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Ian, yo — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:05:47 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Browse more photos »

1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.

2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.

3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.

4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.

5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.

6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.

7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.

8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.

9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.

10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.

Pavano Good, Feldman Better, Rangers Blank Twins

Jesse — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 10:03:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

3 months ago: Texas Rangers shortstop Omar Vizquel, right, throws to first to complete the double play after forcing out the Minnesota Twins' Michael Cuddyer during the second inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

Browse more photos »

Twins 0, Rangers 3. That was frustrating.

It was an early strike by the Rangers that did all the necessary damage on Saturday night. I'm glad I fell asleep during the fifth inning, because I'm pretty sure my frustration wouldn't have let me sleep.

Carl Pavano struck out Julio Borbon to start the game. Good start. Michael Young followed that up with a single and Josh Hamilton doubled into the left-center gap for a run scoring double on a liner just over the outstretched glove of Orlando Cabrera. It gave the Rangers a 1-0 lead three batters into the game, and ultimately it was all they'd need. Two batters later, Ian Kinsler kicked off his big game with a liner into center field to plate Hamilton, completing a two-run first for Texas.

In spite of Carlos Gomez slipping twice in the outfield, Pavano had a solid night. After those two runs scored, he settled in, largely kept Texas off the bases and tallied a few strikeouts.

The offense blanked itself last night as much as the Rangers did it to them. In the first, Joe Mauer grounded into a double play to end the inning. Brendan Harris grounded into another one in the second to end a possible threat. Harris doubled to lead off the fifth but was stranded there. Cabrera and Mauer ended up on second and third with one out in the sixth--Scott Feldman got Jason Kubel to pop out before Neftali Feliz got Michael Cuddyer to strike out on a wicked curveball low and away. Gameday insists it was in the strike zone, but I don't believe it.

After the sixth the Twins were retired in order, nine up and nine down. Feliz knocked them down in the seventh, C.J. Wilson pitched a perfect eighth and Frank Francisco looked every bit the stud while striking out Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer to lock it up.

Chicago and Detroit did the Twins a favor by losing on Saturday, but these are the games this team needs to be winning. Saturday was a gift day, and it went to waste.

Sunday is another day, and another chance to win. I'll see you for the game.

Stars
#3: Jesse Crain (1.1 IP, 1 K 0 R, .048 WPA)
#2: Orlando Cabrera (0-for-2, 2 BB, .018 WPA)
#1: Carl Pavano (6 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 2 R, .058 WPA)

Duds
Justin Morneau -- Not a good day at the dish.
Alexi Casilla -- A pair of strikeouts, also nicht good.
Jose Mijares -- Gave up a home run to Ivan Rodriguez.

Q&A with Richard Durrett

jscape2000 — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Meet the Wild Card contenders you're not hearing enough about.

Browse more photos »

Richard Durrett blogs the Rangers for the Dallas Morning News the same way Pete Abraham does for the Journal News. So I was obviously very excited when he got in touch, and we swapped some questions.

Be sure to check out my answers to his questions over at DMN.

For your edification:

PA: What's changed for the Rangers from a .488 winning percentage in '08 to a .560 team this year?

RD: Pitching. The team ERA is down nearly a run and a half from last season. The starters are going deeper into games (though they have tired more the last week and haven’t been going as deep as they have all season) and the bullpen, considered a question mark before the season began, has done a nice job. Rangers president Nolan Ryan preached to pitchers the idea of getting one more out or going one more inning. The club hasn’t worried as much about pitch counts and they seem to be in better physical condition. That’s why, despite a season where the bats haven’t been as productive as you’d expect from the Rangers, they are still in contention for the postseason.

PA: Why aren't the Rangers the media darlings that the Rays were last season?

RD: I think the national media are waiting for the Rangers to collapse. It seems that many Rangers fans are waiting for that too. But this is a good team that fights hard every game. It might be different if the Rangers were leading the Angels in the AL West. But because they’ve fighting for the wild card and not the division, that may hurt in gaining national attention. I still think that if the Rangers are in this race in mid September that you’ll see more folks writing about them and taking them seriously. They have a bright future.

Follow the jump for all you want to know about Elvis.

PA: We've seen Michael Young. Can you give me a scouting report on the man he was moved for, Elvis Andrus? Was it the right move?

RD: Elvis Andrus turns 21 on Wednesday. He acts like he’s 31. I thought when the club decided before this season to put Andrus at shortstop that we’d see a guy that really struggled with the bright lights as most rookies do. But not Andrus. He’s a high quality defender that makes highlight-reel plays on a near daily basis. He has tremendous range, making the entire infield better. He’s managed to hit better than expected at around .260. If he were to get that average up, you’d hear his name mentioned more in rookie of the year discussions. By moving Young to third, the Rangers made the defense better as well. Young has good hands and has learned the position quickly. His batting average and leadership have made that corner spot much more productive than last year after Hank Blalock got injured.

PA: Walk us through the bullpen; what should we expect?

RD: Middle relief is a grab bag at this point, except for Neftali Feliz. The youngster has just one walk in his first 14 1/3 innings alongside 19 strikeouts. He’s been amazing and Rangers fans are really excited about his future. It’s not unlike the stuff surrounding Joba Chamberlain when he came up in 2007. If the starters can get the game to the 7th inning, the Rangers bullpen has done the job. You’ll see Darren O’Day, a sidearm righty, come in. He struck out all three batters he faced in Tampa Bay on Sunday. CJ Wilson is the primary eighth-inning setup man (though if the lineup was lefty heavy in the seventh or ninth, you could see him). He has great stuff, but will make things interesting at times by walking guys or putting runners on. Frank Francisco is one of the top closers in the game when healthy. And right now it appears he’s healthy coming off the DL a few weeks ago. He throws hard, locates well and is aggressive.

PA: Which Ranger do you think would be a superstar if only he played in NY?

RD: Elvis Andrus might be one of those. His defense really is fun to watch. Michael Young is another, but I’d like to think fans think of him as a superstar now. Neftali Feliz could be that guy. I can only imagine if Feliz was throwing his triple-digit fastballs in front of Yankees fans and striking out Red Sox hitters. He’d be a hero right now.

PA: Who is the team MVP?

RD: Michael Young. He’s a leader on and off the field. And his stats show that he’s still amazingly consistent and productive at the plate. He’s on pace to get 200 hits for the 6th time in his career. That’s certainly impressive. He has all the intangibles. He’s the MVP.

PA: We know Josh Hamilton's story; who has the second best story on the team?

RD: Wow. That’s tough. I guess one that few folks know about is Derek Holland, a guy you’ll see Wednesday. He was drafted to little fanfare in the 25th round in 2006. But he really started opening eyes at Double-A Frisco. Holland pitched a community college in Alabama and wanted to go to Ohio State. But they wouldn’t offer him a scholarship (he’s now a Michigan fan). He’s a good kid and a guy who was a real late bloomer in terms of velocity and confidence. Check out this story in the Dallas Morning News that ran on Sunday about him. It’s interesting.

Monday morning Rangers stuff

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 14:49:31 -0000

More photos » by LM Otero - AP

4 months ago: Texas Rangers Ian Kinsler, right, gets congratulations from teammate Hank Blalock (9) after hitting a home run in the second inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009. The Ranger won 4-3. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Browse more photos »

I have a hard time thinking the last time I felt this optimistic about the future of any sports team I followed. Probably not since the early 90s with the Cowboys have I felt like a team I followed was so steeply on the rise, and had such a high ceiling for what it could accomplish in the coming years.

After thirty-some-odd years of watching a team that has been a black sheep, this weekend really felt like a turning point, like we are in the elbow of the curve for the Rangers, where the rewards of rebuilding and assembling young talent look like they are really about to pay big dividends.

It is an exciting time to be a Ranger fan.

Jeff (the writer) Miller talks about the importance of last night's win, and includes this quote from Frank Francisco, on being sent back out there after Friday night's disaster:

Francisco, a quiet man, spoke firmly about what Washington’s commitment to him and his own commitment to his team.

"It’s important that a manager has faith in his players," he said. "That’s the most important thing he can do. It helps you grow. I had two out [on Friday night], and I thought I could get the [last] guy out. I should have gotten the guy out.

"I know I went out there and gave my one hundred percent like I do every single time. That’s why I don’t ever feel bad … I feel bad every time we lose … but I can go and look myself in the mirror."

Francisco, a quiet man, spoke firmly about what Washington’s commitment to him and his own commitment to his team.

"It’s important that a manager has faith in his players," he said. "That’s the most important thing he can do. It helps you grow. I had two out [on Friday night], and I thought I could get the [last] guy out. I should have gotten the guy out.

"I know I went out there and gave my one hundred percent like I do every single time. That’s why I don’t ever feel bad … I feel bad every time we lose … but I can go and look myself in the mirror."

There's lots more in there from Miller on the series as well...

Jeff Wilson writes about yesterday's game being the high water mark, record-wise, in a variety of ways.

Evan Grant writes about the Rangers being in contention during a time when the focus normally would be on Roy Williams' wrist.

In the S-T's notes, Taylor Teagarden talks about how he likes being the everyday catcher. There are also injury updates on Jason Grilli (who is throwing and sounds like he's close), Nelson Cruz (who is starting a rehab assignment today), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Matt Harrison could start throwing again this week.

And Jennifer Floyd Engel has even jumped on the Ranger bandwagon, although she says the team needs to replace the beyond-struggling Hank Blalock with Chris Davis, who is tearing it up in Oklahoma.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/16/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 07:00:14 -0000

Sorry, Ian. Sure hope Cabrera didn't do that intentionally. Can we avoid the retaliation stuff tomorrow?

Let's get the messy stuff out of the way - HUGE crash after Friday's amazing win.

NESN - Penny, Red Sox Knocked Around in 7-2 Loss to Texas

ProJo - Rangers 7, Red Sox 2

ProJo - To blame or not to blame, that is the question

There may even be a few people who fully believe none of it was the captain's fault. This season he's allowed 92 stolen bases and has thrown out only nine runners. While those are pretty disparaging numbers, the Sox' pitching staff needs to take responsibility, too.

Considering the two biggest failures to control the baserunners in a specific game BOTH came when Brad Penny was pitching, there has to be some sort of credit given to Tek. Hopefully this doesn't cost us many more wins, especially considering that there's not much the Sox can do to improve in this aspect this season.

We're still 0.5 games ahead of the Rangers, but that could change if Tazawa doesn't pitch well today. It would also be nice if there was minimal violence in today's series finale.

Some of the Wild Card contenders crept a little closer as well:

American League Wild Card Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Boston	66	50	.568	0	Lost 1
Texas	65	50	.565	0.5	Won 1
Tampa Bay	62	54	.534	4	Won 1
Seattle	60	56	.517	6	Lost 2
Chicago	60	57	.512	6.5	Won 2
Minnesota	56	60	.482	10	Lost 1
Toronto	55	60	.478	10.5	Lost 1
Oakland	51	65	.439	15	Lost 2
Cleveland	50	66	.431	16	Won 1
Baltimore	48	68	.413	18	Lost 1
Kansas City	45	71	.387	21	Lost 2

(updated 8.16.2009 at 12:24 AM EDT)

Some intriguing stuff after the jump, including prospect news, some pieces about the glut of roster moves this season, and thoughts about the futures of two important Sox.

Prospects soon to be playing

@SoxProspects - Rizzo's Back

You may stop holding your breath - Anthony Rizzo off the DL in Salem! #redsox

USG mentioned this in the comments of yesterday's Laundry, but it's kinda worth repeating. Hopefully Rizzo can bounce back from this and continue his ascent through the minors.

@SoxProspects - Webb Signs, Pivach Might

Theo, McLeod and co. keep at it - LHP Timmy Webb ([31st] rd) signed, and we're hearing RHP John Pivach (46th) might have too #RedSox

Not sure if these are just quick deals done while working on the higher picks or if the FO has moved on to focusing these kids.

@SoxProspects - No option burnt for Reddick if back on 9/1

Reddick optioned to Pawtucket, Brian Anderson up. Reddick can be called up on 9/1 and not burn an option this year. #redsox

The Chronicles of Reddick skipped a chapter, so he's going back to make sure he's developed properly for when the Sox decide he's ready to be a Major Leaguer for real - which, might be sooner than previously thought...

Always thinking of the future

Fire Brand of the American League - Are we better off letting Jason Bay walk?

But would the Red Sox be better off letting Jason Bay walk? Would they be better off taking the draft picks, finding a one-year stopgap. And hopefully letting Josh Reddick take over the position, at a very cheap price, and under club control for a while?

If Reddick is going to be startin next year, I'd prefer that he be in right field, shifting the aging JD Drew to left field. What's your preferred solution to the LF spot?

Fire Brand of the American League - Buchholz a groundball pitcher?

Currently his groundball rate, is a rate of 60 percent. Really, really high. That number probably won't be sustained. But a definite improved groundball rate most likely will.

Pitching to contact would help Clay see more batters and go deeper into games, but with his stuff, strikeouts are always going to be a big part of his game.

Extra Bases - What's next for Woodward, Matsuzaka

Not that anyone really cares about Woodward, but here's Dice-K's schedule for the next week or so:

Matsuzaka will throw another bullpen Monday, with an increased pitch count. On Thursday, he'll throw another bullpen with the intensity dialed down. His next appearance would be a few innings of a rehab start, likely in the Gulf Coast League.

Extra Bases - Gonzalez glad to be back

"I know these guys," Gonzalez said. "I don’t feel like a stranger, you know? I feel like I’m with family again."

Great. Now can you please be the over-athletic sibling who excels at every thing he does? I mean, we've already got the fat uncle who sits on the bench during family softball games, eating his turkey leg covered in gravy - yeah, this guy:

SoSH - The Penny Problem

That means one pitcher, either Brad Penny or Junichi Tazawa, will be removed from the rotation. Given Tazawa's inexperience and roster flexibility (he can be optioned at any time), it's easy to presume him the odd man out. But after watching Penny labor through yet another outing tonight, it might be time to seriously question his viability going forward.

I'd assume Penny would be claimed by SOMEONE if we placed him on waivers, but will Theo be willing to trust Taz, Bowden, Byrd, and Dice-K to fill the 5th spot once Wake comes back? Speaking of Wake...

Extra Bases - Wakefield's rehab start

Tim Wakefield has concluded his rehab start with Triple A Pawtucket at Gwinnett. He allowed two earned runs in 3 2/3 innings on three hits, a walk, and, strangely enough, a balk. Wakefield struck out three and threw 63 pitches.

Should be ready to go soon. Now, about the other member of the DL Loyalty Club:

Extra Bases - Drew out until Wednesday

Drew's sore groin will keep him out tonight and tomorrow. On Monday, the Sox have an offday. On Tuesday, the Sox are scheduled to face Toronto lefthander Ricky Romero, a game Francona likely would have sat Drew for, anyway. So Drew will get four days off to rest his groin.

And now, on a COMPLETELY unrelated note:

MLB Daily Dish - Investigation slows prospects negotiations

Not much to say here - we need to know who we're offering millions to, and teams should be more than willing to wait for the MLB to determine if an international prospect is telling the truth.

Maybe we should think about the future a little more

ProJo - There seems to be no end to the Red Sox’ roster shakeups

Boston has made seven roster moves in the last 11 days, and 10 in the last 16. A total of 46 different players have appeared in games for the Red Sox this season, which is one shy of last year’s total of 47. On the mound, 22 pitchers have been used, also one shy of last year’s mark, 23.

We're not alone in our proclivity for changing our roster - and other teams are paying for their mistakes just like we are:

MLB Daily Dish - Teams Paying $70M to Released Players This Season

Sometimes just thinking about the present is difficult

BtB - UZR's (and Most Other Defensive Metrics) Limitation in Year to Year Analysis
Since E-Coli busts out the UZR every once in a while, I thought you guys would like to understand more about the stat, and it's issues.

P.S. - Pitch F/X School

Yesterday I asked which of Frank Francisco's pitches were labeled suspiciously. If you couldn't tell just based off of a green dot in a bunch of yellow dots (or vice-versa, if you noticed that one too), here's a guide for movement graphs that shows where each type of pitch USUALLY can be found. I'd say either of the suspicious pitches could be labeled a splitter, based off this.

via www.sonsofsamhorn.net

You might want to commit that to memory, or at least bookmark it. Anyways, Pitch F/X school's going to take a break for the weekend. If you find anything cool on the web today, drop a link in the comments.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/15/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Tim Sharp - AP

Ahh, man, he's doing song title puns?!?

Browse more photos »

HAPPY 40th ANNIVERSARY OF THE ORIGINAL WOODSTOCK FESTIVAL!!!

Get ready for some song title puns, folks.

Gotta have faith, folks. "We Shall Overcome"

NESN - Bizarre Ninth-Inning Comeback Propels Red Sox Over Rangers

You could watch baseball for 100 years and not see what took place in the top of the ninth inning in Texas on Friday night.

Boston Herald - Victor Martinez keys 6-run 9th, Red Sox beat Rangers 8-4

Again, not a lot from the Herald in terms of content. Quick and dirty summary though.

THT Live - Will the Red Sox win the AL East?
John Beamer's created a playoffs odds calculator in Excel, and he's got some odds on the Sox winning the AL East. Trust me, this fits with the subheading - and no, I'm not calling Joan Baez fat.

Lots of great stuff after the link - both current and possible future roster moves, some standings, a feel good story, and Pitch F/X school.

"A Change Is Gonna Come," mostly because I'm pretty sure no one's thrilled about a certain position

ProJo - Why can’t the Red Sox figure out the shortstop position?

With [shortstop] a virtual merry-go-round since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, management has tried to solidify shortstop with a bevy of players, starting with Orlando Cabrera (2004), then Edgar Renteria (2005), Alex Gonzalez (2006) Julio Lugo (2007 to 2009), Jed Lowrie (2008, 2009) and Nick Green (2009).

NESN - Red Sox Designate Woodward For Assignment

Woodward appeared in just five games for the Red Sox, going 0-for-4 with a walk.

Francona said that newly acquired Alex Gonzalez will be with the team on Saturday.

Extra Bases - Is Gonzalez an upgrade?

Wait, is someone in the mainstream media actually using sabermetrics in their work?

The Ultimate Zone Rating compiled at FanGraphs.com uses a formula based on errors, range, and arm strength to quantify how many runs above average a player’s defense creates for his team. This season, Green’s UZR per 150 games would give the Red Sox eight runs above average. Gonzalez’s would provide four runs above average.

That quote might be a bit selective, since I'm already on the record for how I feel about Gonzo. Ah well - SOMEONE disagrees:

38 Pitches " Best [defensive] season ever…

I never pitched in front of a player that had a better defensive season than Alex Gonzalez did when I was in Boston. Not sure what the defensive statistics say about that year, but I know as a staff we were all in love with the guy every day he was at SS.

Actually, Curt, you're spot on, as the link above yours mentioned. Problem is, he's lost most of his range, to the point where it makes no contribution to his UZR. If this doesn't work, and Jed doesn't have a miraculous recovery, then what might the Sox do later this year?

BABIP and Service Time End J.J. Hardy's season - Beyond the Box Score

The Milwaukee Brewers sent down shortstop J.J. Hardy and brought up prospect Alcides Escobar to the majors in a flurry roster moves designed to shake up the team. However, was it a good move personnel-wise, or was there an ulterior motive to the transaction?

I've said it before - Hardy's going to be too expensive. And now, if SFiercex4 and Dave Cameron are right, then he's going to be a LOT more expensive to acquire this offseason than most people planned. So what could be the next option? Sandy's going to like this one:

THT - Marco Scutaro’s little things

Jamie Campbell started by saying "he's an absolute bargain at just more than one million dollars this year the way he's playing", and suggested that he "should generate a lot of interest in the free agent market".

Sam Cosentino followed depicting Scutaro's qualities this way: "[he's] doing a lot of the little things that help your ballclub win: he can bunt, he's a good two strikes hitter"; he then added some considerations on how well he plays defense and that he "runs the bases well".

Back in play-by-play mode, Campbell concluded by saying he "really knows how to work the count, never afraid to hit with two strikes".

None of these guys were "Born Under A Bad Sign[-ing]"

The Red Sox went on spending spree today, signing up several of their picks before the deadline on Monday at Midnight. Here's the rundown:

And, because I know I missed some, here's their recap tweet: @SoxProspects - Signings Recap

Standings Galore, or, "I Stand Accused"

Beyond the Box Score - BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings

The dog days of summer are upon us, at least here on the East Coast. And no teams have been more affected than the Red Sox and the Rays. Their recent poor performance (along with the Yankees winning streak) has both teams thinking about the Rangers and Wild Card more than the division.

These are based on Justin's Power Rankings that I linked to in yesterday's Laundry. Do these standings think that the Rays or the Rangers will be able to catch up to us for the Wild Card?

Comcast SportsNet New England - Playoffs?!
Negative Nancy, much? Maybe he was talking to Papi right before he wrote this, because Papi wasn't in a great mood either it seems.

Extra Bases - Ortiz: "If you want to judge me, it's on you"

He was dropped lower even than he was in the long days at the beginning of the season, when he wasn't hitting, and some left him for done. By batting .280 with 14 homers and a .591 slugging percentage from June 2 to July 31, Ortiz proved that wasn't quite the case.

Then came the news. On July 30, the news broke that Ortiz's named had been among the 104 on the now infamous steroid list. He hit a game-winning, three-run homer that day. But since then, he hasn't hit anything. And, yesterday, he explained part of what has been weighing so heavily on him, what has clearly made him angry as he tries to get past the story that likely will change forever how the slugger is perceived.

Papi's pretty perturbed by all this, from what I can tell. Hopefully the playoff race will raise some of the pressure off Big Papi - well, the unwanted kind, anyway.

"Getting My ~~Heart~~ Bone Marrow, Rival's Respect, and Shoulder Stamina Back Together Again"

NESN - Putting a Baseball Rivalry Aside for Something Much Bigger

It had been 15 years since Steve Karas registered as a bone marrow donor, but two years ago Karas got a call saying he was a perfect match for a nine-month old boy who was born with a potentially fatal bone marrow disease.

The boy was Matthew Welling of Portchester, N.Y., and after waiting the one-year period of anonymity following the procedure, the Karas and Welling families met for the first time at Steve's home.

Since their first meeting, the families have remained in contact, using the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry as a connection to build their friendship

Haven't watched the video myself, but how could that not be an inspiring story that reminds us that our enemies can be our friends too. In fact, our friends over at Pinstripe Alley have a question that we could give valuable input to, even if they didn't ask for it:

Pinstripe Alley - The Ted Williams Question: Nick Swisher Edition

One of the classic critiques of Ted Williams is that a hitter that powerful should swing the bat more and walk less.

There's a chicken and egg to this: he's a great hitter because of his reputation for only swinging at strikes and because he gets himself into hitters counts.

So I'm curious where Yankee fans stand on this topic considering the Yankee most likely to walk, Swishalicious.

On a related note - walks, nicknames, etc. - guess who's getting ready for a (possible) comeback in September?

Extra Bases - Matsuzaka throws again

Daisuke Matsuzaka threw his second bullpen session off of a mound in Fort Myers, Fla. today. He threw 65 pitches with increased intensity, throwing all of his pitches. He had no complains afterward, and he will throw another bullpen Monday.

The reason for the waiting is the extra pen arms we'd have at our disposal for a limited outing from Dice-K.

"Strawberry Fields For Ever" - Weird Choice of Buffet...

Yahoo! Sports - Major feast: Big leaguers bring rehab bonanza

Federowicz twice was called on this spring by the Class A Greenville Drive as Smoltz worked his way up to the Boston Red Sox. The second-year catcher discovered a patient, friendly and accommodating star, plus a generous, heaping postgame buffet.

P.S. - Pitch F/X School

Well, I forgot to share the answer to yesterday's question in the GT, so I've decided instead to share it here. Flows nicely with the new question, so I can build upon what was learned the previous question, right?

Anyways, here's your answer: Pitch F/X 8/14 Answer

And now for the next question: now that you have a general idea of what a pitch really looks like, it's time to learn to evaluate individual pitches based on movement. First, a quick explanation of what MOVEMENT is. From Gameday:

Break is the greatest distance between the trajectory of the pitch at any point between the release point and the front of home plate, and the straight line path from the release point and the front of home plate.

The Pitch-f/x or 'PFX' value is the distance between the location of the actual pitch, and the calculated location of a ball thrown by the pitcher in the same way but with no spin; this is the amount of 'movement' the pitcher applies to the pitch.

Now that we all understand the difference between the two, I can ask you this: which pitch is labeled suspiciously in this graph of our favorite opposing reliever, Frank Francisco:

via www.brooksbaseball.net - Click link for larger view

Alright, I'm off to celebrate the comeback and the anniversary. If you find any cool stuff on the web, "For Pete's Sake," drop a link in the comments.

Game 116: Victor Martinez is the hero! Red Sox score 6 in the 9th to stun the Rangers 8-4

Ben Buchanan — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 04:50:12 -0000

More photos » by Tim Sharp - AP

Browse more photos »

In one of the craziest 9^th innings in recent memory (up there with the Mother's Day Miracle and Game 5 of the 2008 ALCS), the Red Sox scored 6 runs off of Texas closer Frank Francisco, giving them an 8-4 lead which Papelbon would hold in the 9^th.

Final - 8.14.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Boston Red Sox	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	8	11	0
Texas Rangers	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	9	0
WP: Takashi Saito (3 - 3) LP: Frank Francisco (2 - 2)

Complete Coverage >

Red Sox vs Rangers recap

Red Sox vs Rangers boxscore

Coming into the 9^th down 2-4, David Ortiz (the source of the Sox' other runs on a 2-run homer in the 6^th ) turned on a middle-middle fastball for a double to right field. Jason Varitek just barely beat out the throw from Elvis Andrus on what was nearly a great play for the Texas Shorstop to set up 1^st and 3^rd with none out. Ellsbury singled up the middle, scoring Ortiz. That's when things almost fell apart.

Chris Woodward tried twice to drop down a bunt, taking 2 strikes and then striking out on the 4^th pitch of the at bat. Terry Francona then chose to pinch run Clay Buchholz for Jason Varitek. When Dustin Pedroia hit a double off the wall in left, Buchholz made a terrible misread (though understandable, given his limited baserunning experience) and was thrown out at the plate after stumbling around 3^rd. With 2 out and runners on 2^nd and 3^rd, Victor Martinez stepped up to the plate. Martinez fell behind 1-2 and fouled off 3 pitches before lacing a low fastball into right for a game winning double. The Sox would tack on 3 insurance runs on a Jason Bay RBI single and a 2-run J.D. Drew homer.

The pitching was a mixed bag, but mostly positive. Jon Lester gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, striking out an impressive 11 batters. Daniel Bard gave up a run in part thanks to some questionable defensive positioning. Takashi Saito and Jonathan Papelbon both pitched scoreless innings, each giving up a hit and striking out 1 and 2 respectively.

With the win, the Red Sox are 1.5 games up on the Rangers in the AL Wild Card race. Both teams send the back end of the rotation to the mound tomorrow, with Brad Penny taking the mound for the Sox against Derek Holland.

2 games until Kevin Youkilis returns.

Mets Top Prospects: #24 Nick Carr

Sam Page — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:23:46 -0000

A reliever from the 41st round has made Mark a believer...I like him, too.

Nick Carr

Vitals

Born 4/19/87

Physical Stats: 6'1" 195 lbs.

Position: Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 41st round 2005, College of Southern Idaho

Current Team: St. Lucie Mets (Hi-A Florida State League)

Scouting Report

Carr is big bulky relief pitcher who relies on low-mid 90s heat to miss bats and consistently generate groundballs. Actually a few months younger than Eric Beaulac, Carr has also been moved to the bullpen this year. In many respects, he's similar to Beaulac, in that he works mostly off his fastball and uses a slider as his primary second pitch, and the knock on him is command troubles. However he's shorter and thicker around the middle than Beaulac, and when he's right generates more natural "run" on his fastball, though his slider lags behind a bit and his command has been a more problematic. He also features a hard changeup that flashes average and should be a fine third pitch for a relief prospect. His progress has been a bit on the slow side, but it's also been quite steady, and most of the last big hurdles for Carr to cross mechanical ones. Oddly enough, he's been MIA since mid-June, though I can't find a specific report of injury.

Mechanics

Sadly this video was all I could find on Carr, and while it's not ideal let's check it out:

Carr works quickly, pitching with almost a slide-step out of the stretch. His tempo is good as a result, but his delivery and path to the plate is a bit odd.

He only really lifts his leg slightly higher than that before pulling the ball out of the glove Stokes-style and driving forward.

Then, with his foot planted, he slings his arm across his body, causing him to fall toward first base. This slinging-motion explains some of control problems. It also allows Carr to generate velocity, albeit not particularly efficiently. It comes as little surprise, then, that Carr has trouble disguising his changeup, due to varying arm-speeds. He also finishes with a little recoil, which some people identify as an injury risk, but I don't really buy into that.

Statistics

Year	Level	G	GS	IP	BF	H	R	ER	HR	SO	BB	ERA	WHIP
2006	APPY-R	12	11	48	215	49	29	26	5	44	23	4.88	1.50
2007	NYPL-A	14	14	66.1	280	55	31	27	4	74	27	3.80	1.236
2008	(NYPL-A+FSL-A+)	26	25	119	527	125	75	69	10	96	54	5.22	1.504
2009	FSL-A+	14	2	42.2	183	36	21	17	1	42	28	3.59	1.50

FIP	SO%	BB%	SO/BB	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	IF/F	HR/FB
4.32	20.50%	10.70%	1.91	0.319	48.60%	34.50%	13.50%	14.10%	9.80%
3.49	26.40%	9.60%	2.74	0.298	54.40%	28.60%	13.20%	18.40%	7.70%
4.42	18.20%	10.20%	1.78	0.324	44.40%	39.20%	15.30%	14.30%	6.80%
4.21	23.00%	15.30%	1.5	0.327	55.10%	32.20%	8.50%	14.60%	2.60%

Mark Says:
While the high BB% is discouraging, the fact that he's continued to miss bats throughout his FSL tenure is also very encouraging. Because his problems are primarily mechanical the movement on both his fastball and his slider can be inconsistent, ranging between plus and below average from outing-to-outing. He also has a tendency to slow down his armspeed on changeups. These are still problems that are correctable natural development though. If he can wrangle his command in, everything could fall into place very nicely, and he could become a nice option for a Major League bullpen in short order. His ERA and HR/FB in the pitcher friendly FSL does mask his true current ability a bit, but remember, he's actually a bit younger than Beaulac. Keep an eye on his BB% the rest of this year and next. If it starts to tick up, his strong FSL aided ERA should be more of a quirk than a troubling sign.

Sam Says:

The great paradoxes of Carr's statistical profile this season is that, while his walks have increased, he's maintained his high strikeout rate with more called-strike threes (although it's mostly an issue of sample size). Some pitchers walk more when they reach higher levels because hitters are making more contact, taking their pitches outside the zone, and working deeper counts, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Carr, who continues to get the K's. The groundballs are also encouraging, and his tRA is actually lower than his FIP at 3.77. As Mark noted, though, the FSL is a pitcher's league (3.95 avg. tRA) and the real stat to watch is the walks.

Fun With Comparisons

~~Scott Boras Says~~ Derek Carty suggests:

Frank Francisco

The Texas shutdown closer moved about the same speed through the minors as Carr is now, with his BB/9 rising steadily as he went. For his minor league career, he had a 4.8 BB/9 but a 9.8 K/9, and looked trapped in the minors at age 24, unable to get his walk rate under 5. Then, thanks to some good cup-of-coffee showings, he got a shot and showed demonstrable improvement every year in the majors. At age 28, he lowered his BB/9 to 3.7 and this year it's down to 2.6. He's a late bloomer, sure, but a shutdown closer.

Impartial Observer says:

Fernando Rodney

Nick Carr has yet to post the strikeout numbers of Frank Francisco, though, and has demonstrated marginally better control. That description fits Fernando Rodney well, a player who basically carried a Nick-Carr skill-set all the way to the majors. Rodney is a very inconsistent reliever year-to-year largely due to his fluctuating control, and that's probably the type-of-reliever Carr will be, if he reaches the majors.

Steve Phillips says:

Derrick Turnbow (2008 version)

Turnbow, like Rodney, posted peripherals very similar to Carr in the low minors before finally getting a chance with Milwaukee in 2005, a year he posted a 1.74 ERA and went to the all-star game. That would be an optimal outcome for Carr, but I'm not talking about that Derrick Turnbow. The Derrick Turnbow of today, whose mechanical problems prevented him from throwing any strikes, is the low-end projection here. In fact, Turnbow could be all three of these comparables, he has had such an up-and-down career, but I figured it was better to include some variety.

Projected Value

Perfect-world WAR: 2.0

Median WAR: 0.3

Conclusion: Wait and see. You can't learn stuff, but you can learn control and mechanics. Whether Carr is a quick flameout with injuries or a shutdown reliever will depend on how well he adjusts.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:01:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Jeff Karstens is stopped by umpire Chad Fairchild, right, and Jason Kendall from getting to Chris Smith after being hit by a pitch in the eighth inning on Monday. No players were ejected, and the Pirates won 8-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while changing your misleading name.

Thanks to Tristarscoop for picking up the slack while I was away yesterday. Between getting married, honeymooning, buying a house, moving, being in another wedding and now a funeral, I feel like I've been away more than I've been home in the last two months, but (knock on wood) I should be back for the long haul now...at least through the end of the week.

Did you skip out early on last night's game? I almost went to bed in the seventh inning and would have missed the bench clearing incident involving Chris Smith and Jeff Karstens. Smith hit Karstens with a pitch in the eighth inning but later said the pitch wasn't intentional, which is probably the same thing Karstens said after hitting Ryan Braun in April. This HBP had some increased historical significance, being the 600th plunking at PNC Park.

Because the mess happened so late last night, possibly after many Brewer bloggers had gone to bed, there wasn't a lot of reaction to it on the web this morning. Don't be surprised, though, if Jason Kendall picks up a suspension of a game or two for his actions in the shoving match that followed. Kendall shoved Jeff Karstens down the first base line and was later involved in a shouting match with Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

The incident also overshadowed the Brewer debut of Felipe Lopez. Lopez missed an early flight because he was waiting for his bats and would not have been in the starting lineup if not for the rain delay, but went 4-for-4 with a triple and a walk, becoming the first Brewer to record four hits in their debut since Chuckie Carr in 1996. TheJay sent me that link, and also this note:

By the by, it took Jody Gerut only 20 games (5 starts) over six weeks to reach four hits.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic discussed the D-Backs' reasons for trading Lopez. He (Lopez, not Piecoro) stands a good chance of being a Type B free agent this offseason, but had also been vocal about enjoying playing in Arizona. The D-Backs would have had to offer him arbitration to receive any compensation if he left, but weren't willing to pay him the $5-6 million he would have received if he accepted the offer. They also seem to think Roque Mercedes is similar in value to the compensation pick they could have received.

Manny Parra has allowed just 12 baserunners in 13 innings since returning from AAA and lowered his ERA from 7.52 to 6.37 in the process. Has he figured it out? Zach Sanders of Baseball Digest Daily seems to think so.

In the minors:

Cody Adams, the Brewers' second round pick from 2008, has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for amphetamines. (Also noted in FanShot) Adams wasn't pitching well for the Timber Rattlers in the first place, but will now be set even farther back.
While the struggle to draw fans to games in Huntsville has drawn some negative attention this season, the Nashville Sounds are just happy the attention isn't on them. Despite making some improvements to Greer Stadium, the Sounds' attendance is down from last season, and ranks 15th in the 16-team PCL.
2009 draftee Josh Prince is the Prospect of the Week over at Between the Green Pillars. Battlekow interviewed Prince back on June 23.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers lost 15-1 to Lansing last night but still lead by two games in the Midwest League West Division Second Half Standings.
The Cub Reporter has a nice interview with Nashville hitting coach Sandy Guerrero, perhaps better known for being Prince Fielder's BP pitcher at the Home Run Derby.

Ever thought about attending a Brewer Fantasy Camp? Bill Schroeder has the sales pitch for you.

On rankings:

FanGraphs ranked Ryan Braun #8 in their Trade Value rankings, one spot ahead of Tim Lincecum. I love Braun, but if the Giants called and offered Lincecum I'd have a hard time turning it down.
The Brewers dropped four spots to 18th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.

Around the majors:

Angels: Released reliever Rudy Seanez, who had been pitching in AAA. (h/t Diamond Notes)
A's: Placed Jason Giambi on the DL with a strained quad.
Mets: Placed starter Fernando Nieve on the DL with a leg injury.
Nationals: Placed Scott Olsen on the DL with a back injury and designated Julian Tavarez for assignment.
Orioles: Acquired reliever Cla Meredith from the Padres for infielder Oscar Salazar.
Padres: Placed catcher Edgar Gonzalez, who was hit in the head by a pitch over the weekend, on the DL.
Phillies: Designated reliever Tyler Walker for assignment.
Rangers: Placed Frank Francisco on the DL with a mild case of pneumonia.
Red Sox: Designated Julio Lugo for assignment.
Reds: Placed Ramon Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his knee.
Tigers: Placed Joel Zumaya on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Twins: Signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal.

Last week I mentioned that I had participated in SBNation's NL Central Roundtable, and linked to part 1 of the conversation. Part 2 is up over at Viva El Birdos. It was written prior to the Lopez acquisition, but there's still some relevant stuff in there.

Happy birthday today to former Brewers Lance Painter (42), Geoff Jenkins (35) and CC Sabathia (29).

Oh, and I already knew Amy K. Nelson was a baseball writer, but discovering that she's also an old school video gamer made her infinitely cooler in my book.

Drink up.