SB Nation - Ramon Hernandez

Oakland A's 2000-2009: All-Decade Team and Best Moments

baseballgirl — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

Interested in the Warriors? Golden State of Mind is holding one of their huge events on Friday January 8th. There's a rumor of a great special guest. Thought I'd pass it along...

via farm1.static.flickr.com

Decade posts are all the rage lately, so we're going to do our own. You may have seen this post from Big League Stew on Yahoo, naming their MLB All-Decade team. It is pretty much what one would expect; Posada (C), Pujols (1B), Kent (2B), Jeter (SS), A-Rod (3B), Bonds (LF), Ichiro (CF), Vlad (RF), Manny (DH), Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson (SP), Rivera (Closer). I can't really argue those names, but I thought we could make up an all-decade A's team, and share favorite moments of 2000-2009.

To refresh your memory:

2000 Roster
2001 Roster
2002 Roster
2003 Roster
2004 Roster
2005 Roster
2006 Roster
2007 Roster
2008 Roster
2009 Roster

My Picks:

Catcher:

Ramon Hernandez - He was the catcher during the A's golden years of 2000-2004; he caught Mulder, Hudson, and Zito, and was a big part of getting the A's to the playoffs.

First Base:

Jason Giambi - Need I say more? Not only was Giambi one of the best players in the league during his heyday, but he has had less than zero competition the in years since he left.

Second Base:

Mark Ellis - Ellis started in 2002 for the A's, and played the rest of the decade, with the exception of 2004. A tremendous defensive player, with some good offensive years, Ellis is the only player to really choose in this category.

Shortstop:

Miguel Tejada - Tejada, like Hernandez, played for the teams of 2000 to 2004, and his position on the A's has never been successfully replaced. This is a no-brainer call as well.

Third Base:

Eric Chavez - Like Ellis, Chavez has been the name filling the position for the entire decade, but over the last few years, it has literally been in name only. Still, when he was good, he was good, and a big part of the A's early 2000 playoff runs.

Outfield:

This was where my little experiment got really fun. Can you think of outfield stars on the Oakland A's from 2000-2009? Are we left with Terrence Long? Did Jermaine Dye play long enough--and was healthy enough--to count? What about Mark Kotsay? This was a struggle.

I've narrowed it down to: Mark Kotsay and Nick Swisher for sure. The third spot could go to either Jack Cust or Jermaine Dye, with an honorable mention to Eric Byrnes. What do you think?

Designated Hitter:

Frank Thomas - Yes, Thomas played one year of the 2000's with the A's. It was an awesome year. He wins my vote.

Starting Pitchers:

RHP: Tim Hudson - Hudson takes this for his years with the A's early in the decade. Honorable mention to Dan Haren.

LHP: Barry Zito - His Cy award and his victory against Johan Santana in 2006 seal this spot for me. Honorable mention to Mark Mulder.

Closer: Huston Street. I'll save Andrew Bailey for the next decade.

Manager:

Can I abstain from a vote? Of course I think Ken Macha made his share of mistakes, but Art Howe certainly made some questionable decisions (with much better teams) as well. To paraphrase a player on the Twins in 2002; "We (the Twins) couldn't beat lefties this year, why did Hudson start twice, when Mulder and Zito were in the series as well?" Match that series fail against Ken Macha's use of Mecir/Rincon in the infamous Zito game to lose the AL West to the Angels and Macha hitting Melhuse/Long against the Red Sox with the tying run on third and less than two outs, and it's a tough call. I pick...Stomper?

Worst Moment of the Decade:

I know there will be probably be votes for the Jeter flip, but on some level, I figure that was a one-in-a-million baseball play; it didn't make or break the series itself, and the run in question would have only tied the game. Far worse to me was watching Jermaine Dye break his leg, or Mecir and Rincon being chosen to relieve Zito, with Hudson waiting in the wings for a one-game winner-takes-all start. But the very worst back-to-back at-bats were turned in by Long and Melhuse against Derek Lowe and I pick those combined at-bats as the worst moment of the decade. I was there in person for all of the above events, and that one definitely hurt the most.

Best Moment of the Decade:

This was a really, really tough call. Apparently, I attended a lot of A's playoff games in this decade, since I was also there in person for both of these picks too. My runner-up award goes to the Ramon Hernandez two-out, bases-loaded bunt against the Red Sox in extra innings. Not only was it a complete surprise to everyone on the Red Sox and the fans in the park, but it won the first game of the series for the A's, and may have given them the momentum to take the subsequent day game, as well.

However, considering that the A's could not close out the series, it takes a little luster out of the moment looking back. Which is why my number one moment is this, which needs no introduction:

Strange, since this wasn't even a game-winning hit, but somehow it captured the moment when all of the A's fans in the park realized that this wasn't going to be another ALDS ending in heartbreak; that the A's were going to the ALCS for the first time in a decade and a half. Coupled with the goosebump-inducing cheer of "Marco" "Scutaro" from the entire stadium, this moment elicites warm and fuzzy feelings that can still be regenerated in the current tough times.

We continue the winter meetings all this week, but I thought we could share some A's moments of the decade as well. Best? Worst? What/who am I missing? What would you change?

Brian Giles gets the traditional Padres farewell

Dex — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:42:41 -0000

Unless something crazy happens, Brian Giles is done as a Padre. I know this got mentioned last week, but it never really seemed to get discussed. That could also be me just not reading the comments every day. Still, Brian Giles was, to me, the last member left of the first era of Petco Park.

By all accounts, he was a successful Padre and he was a member of successful Padres teams, but in the end, I think he'll go down, like most of the guys who introduced us to Petco Park, as a Padre that people will dislike because he was either weird or they'll feel gypped by him.

Is it strange that Padres fans dislike so many of those guys that opened up Petco for us? Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin left with much of San Diego thinking of them as whiners (though Nevin's got himself a good talk show host thing going). Khalil Greene left as the guy who was fun to watch in the field, but ultimately, the weirdo who never really got around to hitting. Sean Burroughs, with his awkward running style and Golden League power, left even more expectations unfulfilled than any of those other guys. I even remember being excited when we got Ramon Hernandez and then thinking, "Oh. Is that it?"

I look at that '04 team and even though I have fond memories, I also have memories of bad breakups and disappointing exits. Maybe it's my heart's way of protecting me from too many tears already shed.

Maybe, when we say things like, "We should've kept Jason Bay", or "Good riddance, jerk" or "You can go beat women on your own time now", what we're really saying is, "We'll keep you in our hearts", "Travel well, sweet prince" and "I'll miss seeing you hit".

In any case, we have shed our skin of the last bits that remained from when Petco was new and waiting for its history to be written. That part of the history is written now and rather than look back on the weird and whiney with irritation. I will look back with fondness for the eccentricities and passion that those players had.

Good riddance, sweet, princely, jerks.

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:40:34 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

Today is Ryan Braun's 26th birthday. We should all celebrate today by going out and buying a Reme...yeah, I can't even suggest that with a straight face.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while Doug Melvin works the phones.

Casey McGehee finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and I must admit that's much better than I expected, even though he was third on my ballot (FanShot). With that said, Brewed Sports has a new word for teams that hold onto players like McGehee too long.

By the way, if you've ever doubted the significance of the compensation picks given to teams for losing free agents: NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan was a compensation pick in 2006, after the Marlins lost A.J. Burnett to the Blue Jays.

The exclusive window for teams to negotiate with their own free agents ends on Friday, and it's possible the Brewer drawing the most interest is the most unlikely one: Craig Counsell has reportedly been contacted by 12 teams, and may be able to land a multi-year deal. Counsell had a very nice season in 2009, but if someone gives the 39-year-old utility infielder more than one season of guaranteed money, I hope it's not the Brewers.

Edwin Jackson's name is coming up a fair amount lately, as he may very well be the best combination of high upside and low cost on either the free agent or trade market this offseason. With that said, View From Bernie's Chalet isn't completely sold on Jackson, and wonders if trading for him would be a mistake.

Speaking of pitchers with a potentially high upside, Jorge Says No! has a look at the potential market for Ben Sheets. He lists eight teams that could be interested, and that list doesn't include the Brewers.

Pat Lackey of MLB FanHouse has an overview of the Brewer offseason that features some themes you've likely heard before: The Brewers need pitching, Jarrod Washburn could be a candidate, etc.

As I was working on the Fall/Winter League Update this morning, I noticed a surprise: Carlos Gomez made his debut on Sunday in the Dominican League. Follow the link to see how he and the rest of the Brewers have performed over the last couple of days.

Speaking of active Brewer prospects, you could get one more chance to see a few of them on TV this fall: Saturday's AFL Championship Game will be televised on MLB Network. I wish MLB Network would televise a bunch more AFL games: I was out of the house for the only other telecast, and I'll be missing this one, too.

If you're watching on Saturday, though, you might get to see Lorenzo Cain play for Peoria. Project Prospect ranked him 10th among center field prospects.

Just one note on the transaction wire:

Reds: Signed Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal with a vesting option for 2011.

FanGraphs has a list of all of this year's minor league free agents, a veritable "Who's Who" of guys you'd forgotten were still around. I haven't had a chance to peruse the list yet, but Lookout Landing took the opportunity to remind us all that there's no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect.

How much is too much roster manipulation? The Twins recently added reliever Juan Morillo to their 40-man roster, but not for reasons you'd expect. Morillo was due to become a minor league free agent, but the Twins retained control over his rights so they could sell him to a Japanese League team and pocket his transfer fee, likely to be around $500k.

Putting together an All-Decade Team is hard, but some people make it harder than it needs to be. MLB Notebook, for example, put Francisco Cordero in the bullpen of their All Decade team, but left out Trevor Hoffman. Cordero has had a pretty nice decade, but since the start of the 2000 season Hoffman leads him by 113 saves and half a run in ERA.

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded lefty reliever Mike Myers to the Rockies for Curtis Leskanic. The deal worked out pretty well for the Crew: Leskanic posted a 3.01 ERA in 169 games as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Ryan Braun, who turns 26. Braun is now a two-time All Star starter, a two-time Silver Slugger winner, and in 2009 he was in the top ten in the NL in batting average, slugging, OPS, ABs, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, RBI, extra base hits and HBP.

Oh, and how much easier would it be to travel if road maps were colored like subway maps? (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

More on the Hernandez signing

JinAZ — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

As long as he's catching and not playing first base, Hernandez should provide decent value to the Reds in 2010.

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Below is an attempt to value Ramon Hernandez properties (here's Slyde's original article on the signing from this afternoon):

Hitting: CHONE has Hernandez as a -9 RAA hitter per 150G. ZiPS is similar in its projection. Given that Hernandez has been a starter the last many years, I think we can treat CHONE's projected playing time as reasonable guesstimate given that he's an aging catcher who now has an injury history. So, in 54% playing time (380 PA's; Hanigan should still get to play), converted to wins, that puts him at 0.6 wins below average as a hitter.

Fielding: Based on SB/CS/WP/PB/E rates (methods and 2007 data here), I have him at +3 runs this past season, -8 runs in 2008, and +0 in 2007. A 5/4/3 weighted average those numbers puts him at -1 RAA behind the plate. Fan Scouting Report gives him an overall rating of 3.2, which is an average rating for catchers. Given all of this, I think we can be confident in calling him a dead-on average fielding catcher.

Catching position adjustment is +1.25 wins/season, and replacement offset is +2.25 wins/season, which combined and pro-rated, adds 1.9 wins to his total. So:

2010 Projected Value

Hitting: -0.6 wins

Fielding: +0 wins

Position adjustment + replacement: +1.9 wins

Total: 1.3 wins above replacement in 2010.

For 2011, we can apply a half-win of aging (might be generous), and put him at +0.8 wins above average.

Valuing wins is tricky business given the economic environment. But if we assume that free agent salaries this offseason will be close to where they were the last three offseasons--about $4.4 per WAR--then this would put Hernandez's value at:

2010: $5.7 million

2011: $3.5 million

Sheldon reports he signed for $3 million this year and $3.25 million in 2011 if he appears in 74% of Reds games next year (which is well above his projected playing time). You can add $1 million to his contract for 2010 though, because the Reds paid a $1M buyout to get out of the last contract. Even so,this looks like a good deal for the Reds, assuming no sudden old-catcher-falling-off-a-cliff syndrome....though maybe that last concern is why the deal is apparently a bit discounted for 2010.

Update: CTrent reports that the buyout is actually a part of the $3 million. That pushes this deal further into the "decent little bargain" territory.

Regarding Hanigan: his offensive projection is roughly equal to Hernandez, and defensively he rates as an elite defensive catcher. Hanigan should be the starter in this case. He probably won't be, but again, I think Hernandez is likely to miss enough time next year that Hanigan will still play quite a bit. Hope so, anyway.

The Changing of the O's

Stacey — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:12:47 -0000

2007 - Pre-MacPhail. 2010 - Based solely on current players. How much have we improved, really? Discuss. Is it fair to say that the only position where the 2010 Orioles are worse off than the 2007 Orioles is shortstop?

All lineups are based on who played that most games at that position in each year.

2007 Baltimore Orioles	2008 Baltimore Orioles	2009 Baltimore Orioles	2010 Baltimore Orioles
C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Matt Wieters	C: Matt Wieters
1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Aubrey Huff	1B: Luke Scott
2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Ty Wigginton
SS: Miguel Tejada	SS: Juan Castro	SS: Cesar Izturis	SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Jay Payton	LF: Luke Scott	LF: Nolan Reimold	LF: Felix Pie
CF: Corey Patterson	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Luke Scott	DH: Nolan Reimold

Reds Re-sign Ramon Hernandez to a One-year Deal

Slyde — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:19:32 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Ramon Hernandez is re-signed by the Reds. Will he be the everyday catcher?

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have re-signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal. Rosenthal says the deal has a vesting option for 2011 if Hernandez plays 120 games in 2010. He played in 81 games last season and has played in 120 or more games just twice in the last 6 seasons. No other details have been released on the terms yet.

The Reds traded Ryan Freel and prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring to the Orioles last season for Hernandez. He came to the Reds and batted .258/.336/.362 in 331 plate appearances last season, which is very similar to the .258/.319/.395 he posted in the previous two seasons combined with the Orioles. It shouldn't be a surprise then that his projections fall in a similar category. CHONE has Hernandez at .253/.322/.387 and ZiPS has him posting a .255/.324/.385 line. Neither line is all that impressive.

I'm optimistic that given the budget concerns, the Reds haven't overpaid on this deal. However, given the $8.5 million option that the Reds had to decline prior to signing Hernandez, I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar amount is more than any of us would have given to him.

The real key though is that Hernandez's playing time needs to be balanced with Ryan Hanigan. Neither probably deserves the title of everyday catcher, but I think together they could make a decent platoon. They're not going to hit a ton, but defensively they are solid and I think the Reds could do much worse at the catcher position.

UPDATE: Mark Sheldon has the details on Twitter:

Terms on R. Hernandez signing: $3M for 2010 and $3.250M for vesting option in 2011 that kicks in with 120 games played.

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster

Slyde — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:28:28 -0000

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

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When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

**Reds Current 40-man roster**
Bronson Arroyo Homer Bailey Bill Bray Jared Burton Francisco Cordero Johnny Cueto Carlos Fisher Aaron Harang Daniel Ray Herrera Sam LeCure Justin Lehr	Mike Lincoln Matt Maloney Nick Masset Micah Owings Ramon Ramirez Arthur Rhodes Daryl Thompson Pedro Viola Edinson Volquez Kip Wells# Wilkin Castillo **	Ryan Hanigan Ramon Hernandez # Corky Miller Craig Tatum Yonder Alonso Kevin Barker Juan Francisco Paul Janish Brandon Phillips Danny Richar ** Scott Rolen	Adam Rosales Drew Sutton Joey Votto Wladimir Balentien Jay Bruce Chris Dickerson Jonny Gomes Darnell McDonald Laynce Nix Drew Stubbs Willy Taveras

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?