SB Nation - Ramon Hernandez

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster

Slyde — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:28:28 -0000

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

**Reds Current 40-man roster**
Bronson Arroyo Homer Bailey Bill Bray Jared Burton Francisco Cordero Johnny Cueto Carlos Fisher Aaron Harang Daniel Ray Herrera Sam LeCure Justin Lehr	Mike Lincoln Matt Maloney Nick Masset Micah Owings Ramon Ramirez Arthur Rhodes Daryl Thompson Pedro Viola Edinson Volquez Kip Wells# Wilkin Castillo **	Ryan Hanigan Ramon Hernandez # Corky Miller Craig Tatum Yonder Alonso Kevin Barker Juan Francisco Paul Janish Brandon Phillips Danny Richar ** Scott Rolen	Adam Rosales Drew Sutton Joey Votto Wladimir Balentien Jay Bruce Chris Dickerson Jonny Gomes Darnell McDonald Laynce Nix Drew Stubbs Willy Taveras

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

View full size photo »

Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

Injuries Have Taken a Big Bite Out of the Reds This Season

Slyde — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Willy Taveras has been listed as day-to-day three different times this season, but "luckily" he hasn't landed on the DL. Chris Dickerson has not been so lucky.

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I don't like to use injuries as an excuse. Every team faces some injuries every season and the fact is this team is bad. They'd be bad even if everybody had been healthy. Maybe they wouldn't be as bad, but they are not winning anything with their current roster construction. I imagine if the majority of the roster had stayed healthy, they'd probably be pushing .500 at best.

That's not to say that the injuries haven't been brutal. I'm not sure exactly how this compares to past seasons numerically, but the Reds have been battered by injuries all year long. By my estimate, they have lost 538 days on the big league roster for players listed as day-to-day or on the disabled list. This isn't a completely accurate representation though since Wilkin Castillo and Danny Richar were brought up just a few days before getting injured. It's hard to count their missing days as doing much harm to the roster. Still, 17 players from the Opening Day roster have missed a combined 441 days to injury. It's hard for any team to recover from such a string of injuries, not to mention one that wasn't particularly good to begin with.

Probably the worst outcome of these injuries though is that it has prevented the brass from truly evaluating the team to identify the holes on the roster. I fully expect to hear excuses in the off-season that Willy Taveras or Alex Gonzalez was never truly healthy, but with no mention of the fact that neither player has been particularly healthy over the last 3 seasons.

If anything, that is what these injuries have done to the season - created a crap excuse. Well that, and taken Edinson Volquez out of the 2010 equation. Stupid injuries.

Special thanks to Fantasy Pitch Fx's Injury Tool for making the data available and reasonably easy to compile. After the jump I have a complete list of days lost to injury for the Reds in 2009.

2009 Reds Days Lost to Injury
(DTD = Day to Day, DL = Disabled List)
Player	DTD	DL	Current
Ryan Hanigan	6	0
Joey Votto	10	24
Brandon Phillips	7	0
Alex Gonzalez	11	35
Edwin Encarnacion	0	66
Laynce Nix	3	0
Willy Taveras	12	0
Jay Bruce	0	30	+
Ramon Hernandez	0	23	+
Chris Dickerson	5	15	+
Scott Rolen	6	0	+
Danny Richar	0	39	+
Wilkin Castillo	0	52	+
Micah Owings	0	16	+
Bronson Arroyo	3	0
Johnny Cueto	1	0	+
Edinson Volquez	0	85	+
Mike Lincoln	0	59
Jared Burton	0	15
Nick Masset	0	15
TOTAL	64	474	9

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:01:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Jeff Karstens is stopped by umpire Chad Fairchild, right, and Jason Kendall from getting to Chris Smith after being hit by a pitch in the eighth inning on Monday. No players were ejected, and the Pirates won 8-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Some things to read while changing your misleading name.

Thanks to Tristarscoop for picking up the slack while I was away yesterday. Between getting married, honeymooning, buying a house, moving, being in another wedding and now a funeral, I feel like I've been away more than I've been home in the last two months, but (knock on wood) I should be back for the long haul now...at least through the end of the week.

Did you skip out early on last night's game? I almost went to bed in the seventh inning and would have missed the bench clearing incident involving Chris Smith and Jeff Karstens. Smith hit Karstens with a pitch in the eighth inning but later said the pitch wasn't intentional, which is probably the same thing Karstens said after hitting Ryan Braun in April. This HBP had some increased historical significance, being the 600th plunking at PNC Park.

Because the mess happened so late last night, possibly after many Brewer bloggers had gone to bed, there wasn't a lot of reaction to it on the web this morning. Don't be surprised, though, if Jason Kendall picks up a suspension of a game or two for his actions in the shoving match that followed. Kendall shoved Jeff Karstens down the first base line and was later involved in a shouting match with Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

The incident also overshadowed the Brewer debut of Felipe Lopez. Lopez missed an early flight because he was waiting for his bats and would not have been in the starting lineup if not for the rain delay, but went 4-for-4 with a triple and a walk, becoming the first Brewer to record four hits in their debut since Chuckie Carr in 1996. TheJay sent me that link, and also this note:

By the by, it took Jody Gerut only 20 games (5 starts) over six weeks to reach four hits.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic discussed the D-Backs' reasons for trading Lopez. He (Lopez, not Piecoro) stands a good chance of being a Type B free agent this offseason, but had also been vocal about enjoying playing in Arizona. The D-Backs would have had to offer him arbitration to receive any compensation if he left, but weren't willing to pay him the $5-6 million he would have received if he accepted the offer. They also seem to think Roque Mercedes is similar in value to the compensation pick they could have received.

Manny Parra has allowed just 12 baserunners in 13 innings since returning from AAA and lowered his ERA from 7.52 to 6.37 in the process. Has he figured it out? Zach Sanders of Baseball Digest Daily seems to think so.

In the minors:

Cody Adams, the Brewers' second round pick from 2008, has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for amphetamines. (Also noted in FanShot) Adams wasn't pitching well for the Timber Rattlers in the first place, but will now be set even farther back.
While the struggle to draw fans to games in Huntsville has drawn some negative attention this season, the Nashville Sounds are just happy the attention isn't on them. Despite making some improvements to Greer Stadium, the Sounds' attendance is down from last season, and ranks 15th in the 16-team PCL.
2009 draftee Josh Prince is the Prospect of the Week over at Between the Green Pillars. Battlekow interviewed Prince back on June 23.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers lost 15-1 to Lansing last night but still lead by two games in the Midwest League West Division Second Half Standings.
The Cub Reporter has a nice interview with Nashville hitting coach Sandy Guerrero, perhaps better known for being Prince Fielder's BP pitcher at the Home Run Derby.

Ever thought about attending a Brewer Fantasy Camp? Bill Schroeder has the sales pitch for you.

On rankings:

FanGraphs ranked Ryan Braun #8 in their Trade Value rankings, one spot ahead of Tim Lincecum. I love Braun, but if the Giants called and offered Lincecum I'd have a hard time turning it down.
The Brewers dropped four spots to 18th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.

Around the majors:

Angels: Released reliever Rudy Seanez, who had been pitching in AAA. (h/t Diamond Notes)
A's: Placed Jason Giambi on the DL with a strained quad.
Mets: Placed starter Fernando Nieve on the DL with a leg injury.
Nationals: Placed Scott Olsen on the DL with a back injury and designated Julian Tavarez for assignment.
Orioles: Acquired reliever Cla Meredith from the Padres for infielder Oscar Salazar.
Padres: Placed catcher Edgar Gonzalez, who was hit in the head by a pitch over the weekend, on the DL.
Phillies: Designated reliever Tyler Walker for assignment.
Rangers: Placed Frank Francisco on the DL with a mild case of pneumonia.
Red Sox: Designated Julio Lugo for assignment.
Reds: Placed Ramon Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his knee.
Tigers: Placed Joel Zumaya on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Twins: Signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal.

Last week I mentioned that I had participated in SBNation's NL Central Roundtable, and linked to part 1 of the conversation. Part 2 is up over at Viva El Birdos. It was written prior to the Lopez acquisition, but there's still some relevant stuff in there.

Happy birthday today to former Brewers Lance Painter (42), Geoff Jenkins (35) and CC Sabathia (29).

Oh, and I already knew Amy K. Nelson was a baseball writer, but discovering that she's also an old school video gamer made her infinitely cooler in my book.

Drink up.

NL-Only 5x5 Keeper League Trade: Tim Lincecum for Nate McLouth and Johnny Cueto

raygu — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

3 months ago: National League's Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of the MLB All-Star baseball game in St. Louis, Tuesday, July 14, 2009. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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On Sunday, I accepted a trade offer made to me in my other NL-only 5x5 keeper league which I have been an owner for about 12-13 years. I had been going back and forth with the same owner with some smaller offers, but decided his offer was too much to pass up for one reason: I got Tim Lincecum at $18 for this year, and for $5 extra for each additional year. Now I am not one to pay alot for pitching, but Lincecum at $18 is CHEAP.

Here is the offer I accepted:

I get:

SP Tim Lincecum-$18

Aramis Ramirez-$32

Dexter Fowler- $0-undrafted players do not get a salary

Mark Derosa- $0

Ramon Hernandez- $4

I gave up:

Nate McLouth-$6

Johnny Cueto-$10

Josh Bard-$3

Mike Fontenot-$8

Lastings Milledge-$10

The main reason I made this deal was not only for Lincecum, but because he, along with my staff of Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco, Paul Maholm, Jordan Zimmerman and Joel Pineiro, can help me make up 12 points in the pitching categories.

I am currently in 2nd place overall, 6 points behind the leader, but with this trade feel I can make up at least 12 points in pitching categories alone, and maybe a few in the SB category. I am currently in 4th place in ERA, but only .18 behind the leader (the 1st place team overall).

I am in 3rd place in strikeouts, 51 K's behind the leader. I am in 4th place in Wins, only 6 wins behind the leader. I am in 3rd place in WHIP, 0.07 behind the leader (1st place team again). I honestly think that with Lincecum added to my pitching staff, and losing Cueto, I can win every pitching category with my staff. I am in 1st place in Saves with Jonathon Broxton and Trevor Hoffman as my closers.

I will say I am a little worried about Aramis Ramirez' power returning, and who knows when Derosa will return from the DL. I heard an interview with Cardinals GM John Mozeliak recently, and he sounded optimistic that Derosa would return sooner rather than later.

How did I do?

Poll

Will this deal for Tim Lincecum put me over the top in my NL-only keeper league?

No, Lincecum will be Lincecum, but Derosa and Ramirez will not produce up to expectations.

10 votes

Yes, Lincecum is a beast. Congrats on winning the league.

64 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

"Go now and die in what way seems best to you." Reds lose in convincing fashion, 9-6.

Brendanukkah — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:21:46 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

More like Buttley. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chan Ho Park. Threw three shutout innings of relief, allowing no hits and striking out 4. He also stayed in to bat and singled.

Key Plays

The Reds started positively. Ramon Hernandez walked to lead off the second inning, and Jonny Gomes hit a single. Then Edwin Encarnacion hit a triple to drive them both in, and Micah Owings helped his own cause with a sac fly. The Reds were leading 3-0 and spirits were high.
In a foreshadowing of ugliness to come, Chase Utley hit a sharp ball to centerfield that took a nasty bounce on Willy Taveras. Utley was able to scoot all the way home with an inside-the-park home run. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth followed that with back to back doubles, and suddenly the Reds only led by one.
That is until Edwin homered in the fourth inning!
In the bottom half the of the inning, Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins singled, then the NL's newest All-Star, Shane Victorino, hit a ball that Brandon Phillips badly misplayed. It went into centerfield and was scored a single, but Ruiz and Rollins both scored and the game was tied.
Phillips made amends, however, with the Reds last hurrah. After replacement right fielder Chris Dickerson did something that Jay Bruce can't do (get a hit), Phillips hit his third home run in two games to put the Reds up 6-4.
The fifth inning was the undoing for Micah Owings, as he walked Ryan Howard and Greg Dobbs. Dick Pole went out to the mound to talk to him, and told Micah to give Pedro Feliz something to hit. He did, and Feliz's single scored Howard. Josh Roenicke then came in and walked noted Canadian Matt Stairs, and gave up a run on noted suckbucket Paul Bako's force out. The Reds might have had a double play, but Roenicke didn't cover first. Out came Dusty, in came Danny Ray Herrera, and into the outfield went a batted ball from Jimmy Rollins. Feliz came into score. Victorino drew a walk, then Danny Ray threw a pitch under the glove of Ramon Hernandez and Bako came in to score. Just like that, the Reds were losing 8-6.
And because what's a game against the Phillies without a Jayson Werth home run, Jayson Werth homered off of Danny Ray in the sixth.

via FanGraphs

(There are a bunch of really cool FanGraphs for games tonight. Lots of wild ones.)

Other Notes

The Phillies are averaging 8.1 runs in Jamie Moyer's wins. That sound you just heard was Aaron Harang punching a hole through a concrete wall.
After this game, the Phillies have four players with 20 or more home runs (Raul Ibanez, Howard, Werth, and Utley). Jayson Werth homered in each of the games against the Reds.
This is just the fourth series the Phillies have won in Philadelphia.
On the bright side, Joey Votto has a 12 game hitting streak, a career-high.
Use the rest of the space to bemoan the umpiring, the death of Reds contention, or your hopes for what the Reds offense will do in the new pitcher friendly Citi Field.

Final - 7.9.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	6	8	0
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	X	9	12	0

Complete Coverage >

My gut can't take many more punches, Reds lose on walk-off single, 3-2

Slyde — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 02:40:06 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

If you're not going to hit him, then stop pitching to him.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Homer Bailey. The Reds didn't win, but Bailey deserved the victory. 6 innings pitched, 2 runs, 7 hits, 6 strikeouts, and 0 walks. It's ridiculous that this team keeps wasting good starts by the pitchers.

Key Plays

Singles by Jerry Hairston Jr. and Joey Votto and a walk by Brandon Phillips loaded up the bases with no outs in the 4th inning. Laynce Nix came through with a single to right field, driving in Hairston and keeping the bases loaded. Ramon Hernandez hit a fly ball to right field, scoring Joey Votto and putting the Reds up to 2-0. Unfortunately, Jay Bruce killed the rally by grounding into a double play.
The Phillies cut the lead in half in the bottom of the inning when Shane Victorino singled and then stole 2nd base. Ryan Howard singled to drive him in from 2nd, make it a 2-1 ballgame. Bailey had a little more trouble in the inning, but got out of a 1st and 2nd jam by inducing a flyball from Greg Dobbs.
In the bottom of the sixth, rather than hitting Jayson Werth, Homer Bailey decided to give up a game tying home run, Werth's 19th of the season.
The Reds mounted a minor threat in the 7th when they had 1st and 2nd with one out, but both Jonny Gomes and Chris Dickerson struck out looking and the Reds failed to score.
The Phillies had 1st and 2nd with 2 outs in the 8th, but David Weathers struck John Mayberry out looking to end the threat.
Baker stuck with Weathers in the 9th inning. Weathers gave up a single to Pedro Feliz to lead off the inning, but then managed to get outs from Paul Bako and Eric Bruntlett. He walked Jimmy Rollins though and then gave up the game winning single to Shane Victorino, costing the Reds a shot at taking the series.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

I know people are going to be pissed at Dusty Baker for this game, but the offense is the real culprit. They've now scored 23 runs in their last 8 games. Inexplicably tonight they were aggressive early in the count but then taking pitches with two strikes when clearly the umpire was going to call those corner pitches as strikes. How Brook Jacoby still has a job is beyond me.
Homer Bailey really did look good tonight. The inkling of hope for him is starting to build momentum.
Seriously, I hate the offense right now. Every last one of them. Well, except for Joey Votto and his 11-game hitting streak.

Absolutely nothin': Reds 4, Phillies 3

WholeCamels — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:31:27 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Phillips 4, Phillies 3. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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No, there's no statistical or otherwise rational basis for it, but somehow, you just knew the Phillies would struggle to score runs last night, after Monday's 22 runs outburst. And they did.

After back-to-back bombs by Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth (off a righthander!) in the 2nd, and an RBI double by Chase Utley in the 3rd, the Phillies could not do anything else for the rest of the night as the Reds chipped away, scoring their first three runs on two Brandon Phillips home runs. Then, in the top of the 9th with the score tied, Brad Lidge looked more like early 2009 model again, allowing a leadoff double to Joey Votto, followed by an RBI single by Ramon Hernandez. And despite a couple deep, loud outs off the bats of Chase Utley and Jayson Werth in the bottom of the ninth off Francisco Cordero, the Phillies couldn't get it done again.

The Phillies left 12 runners onbase -- which is OK if you score 22 runs, but not if you're 0-for-5 with a runner on third and no outs.

With Blue Jays scouts allegedly watching, Phillies' lefthander J.A. Happ again pitched fairly well, aside from the two Phillips home runs. Going back to Thursday's loss against Atlanta, the Phillies have now gotten six excellent starting pitching performances in a row.

These games happen, they're just kind of disappointing after a game like Monday's.

via w www.fangraphs.com