SB Nation - Jose Mesa

The Scott Rolen Deal: No Thank You

Charlie — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:56:20 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Scott Rolen, center, is greeted by teammates in the dugout after he scored in the eighth inning of the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. Rolen scored twice and drove in three runs as the Reds won 10-4. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Forgive me for being a bit late to comment on this article by Dejan Kovacevic, but I just saw it.

Ten Ways to Reboot the Pirates in 2010: 1. Spend.

Sign Rick Ankiel or any free agent -- Nick Johnson? Mark DeRosa? Xavier Nady for a second tour? -- who might bring some pop to the lineup.

Make a trade for a quality player, regardless of cost.

The Pirates' current $23 million roster -- which projects to $28 million with raises -- has to represent the low point. There is no rule that says a team building from within must be a catastrophe at the major league level until the prospects arrive. Provided that acquisitions do not block key players -- signing, say, a center fielder would be absurd -- the only reason not to fill other holes would be to create more leftover money.

When Cincinnati recently traded for Scott Rolen and his $11 million salary after being miles out of contention, many in baseball scoffed. But the Reds went 25-11 with Rolen, and their many youngsters might have their development aided by his presence.

I'm not opposed to spending a bit of money on a player like Nick Johnson. But, as ever, it amazes me how little people have learned from the Pirates' recent experience.

First: the idea that the Rolen trade represents a good model for the Pirates is just beyond belief. Rolen has had a great career and all, but he has now whined his way out of three of the four organizations he's played for. (In fairness, his manager in Philadelphia, Larry Bowa, was hated by everyone, but still.) The idea that he, of all people, would be the sort of veteran player whose mere "presence" aids the development of youngsters is stunning to me. The Reds' ERA did improve after he arrived, and his superior defense probably did help out with that somewhat, but that's hardly a reason to make crazy trades for veterans if you otherwise should be recharging.

If Kovacevic is simply saying that Rolen helped the Reds with his play on the field helped the Reds' young pitchers, that's one thing. But his use of the word "presence" suggests that that's not what he's saying, espec ially since he didn't mention the pitching staff.

Has there ever been any sort of empirical data that shows that the addition of veteran players helps young players? I don't know of one, and while I can't prove it isn't true, it's fair to note that every team has veterans, and so it's quite easy to credit a veteran for his "presence" every time a team plays surprisingly well.

The flipside is that, if you want to, you can blame them and their "presence" when things go wrong. Of course, that would seem mean-spirited and stupid, wouldn't it? Of course it would. And yet it's every bit as logical as suggesting that the mere "presence" of veterans helps.

The best we can do if we're looking at the effect a player has is to look at how he played on the field. Mere "presence" doesn't seem to matter much, and Pirates fans should know that as well as anybody. How many more wins did Matt Morris' "presence" bring? How about Doug Mientkiewicz's? Or Jose Mesa's? Or Jeromy Burnitz's? Or Joe Randa's? Or Eric Hinske's? Just the other day Kovacevic implied that Hinske was a part of the "awful atmosphere" that surrounded the Pirates in 2009. And yet he was one of the Bucs' biggest veteran additions the previous offseason.

To be fair, I'm sure Kovacevic doesn't believe we should acquire these veterans indiscriminately; perhaps he means that there are some veterans who add something with their presence, and others who don't. But then why focus on a well-known whiner like Rolen (who, after all, pretty much did exactly what Hinske did by begging out of Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Toronto) or an alleged PED user like Rick Ankiel? Or, for that matter, a guy like Nady who's probably a perfectly nice guy but who has already spent a considerable amount of time in PNC Park, apparently without dropping any of that magic veteran pixie dust on the place?

There may, of course, be times that veteran "presence" does help. But even if that's true, no one ever seems to know what they are beforehand. The gift of veteran "presence" is one that only seems to appear after the fact, and then it appears completely randomly, such that a perpetual malcontent like Rolen all of a sudden becomes a savior for no other reasons than that 1) his new team happened to play well following a trade and 2) he's old. In Pittsburgh, we've had veteran after veteran, and none of them have brought anything extra to the team other than what they've done on the field. At least nothing we've seen. So why should we make this same mistake again?

The Rolen trade, in particular, was insane. The Reds traded a very good starting pitching prospect (Zach Stewart), a potentially functional young reliever (Josh Roenicke) and a very talented, if extremely frustrating, young third baseman (Edwin Encarnacion) to get him. In terms of value, this would be a little like if the Pirates traded Rudy Owens, Eric Hacker and Lastings Milledge--for a player who's old and expensive and will be gone after 2010. A potential crowd-pleaser, perhaps, but utterly bonkers in terms of the goals of the franchise.

So when someone says that the Pirates, who are two years from contending in the best of circumstances, should "trade for a quality player, regardless of cost" and points to the Scott Rolen deal as an example of what the Bucs should do, I have to ask: Really?

Kovacevic does have a point that there's no reason the Pirates shouldn't sign a veteran or two this offseason--if the right opportunity presents itself. But jeez, let's at least agree on some some basic tenets here. The point of having youngsters on a 62-win team is not to trade for aging free-agents-to-be. And veteran "presence" isn't going to matter without talent to back it up--just ask the 2007 Pirates. Or the 2006 Pirates. Or the 2004 Pirates. And so on.

The Cruelest Month (revised)

dajafi — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:41:10 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels are all among the Phillies whose career numbers for the month of June badly lag their overall production. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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I just got back very late last night from a two-week trip to Australia and Japan, to find that the Phillies had dropped the first two games of their series against the Toronto Blue Jays; this afternoon, I had the dubious pleasure of watching most of the finale, which the team also lost. The result wasn't surprising, as the Phillies have stunk on ice in interleague play pretty much since the outset of Bud Selig's experiment more than a decade ago. But as others pointed out here and on Back She Goes!, the problem might not be interleague so much as the mysterious yet consistent bad vibes that seem to follow Charlie Manuel's team every time the calendar turns to June.

Actually, the Phils haven't been a complete disaster in the season's third month; since the start of Manuel's tenure, they have a collective 59-66 (.472) record in June, which certainly isn't good but is hardly the stuff of baseball nightmares. It just looks crappy compared to the club's overall 390-322 (.548) mark since the start of the 2005 season. And it's actually slightly worse than the team's cumulative record in April (57-63, .475), usually considered the roughest month for the team. Add that June has been the team's worst month in three of the last four seasons, including this one, and has seen more serious injuries than any other month, and you start to get the idea.

So join me, if you dare, for a brief tour of the last five Junes--the true cruelest month for the Manuel-era Phillies.

2005: 15-12 (.556), 135 runs scored/135 runs against. Okay, this doesn't look too bad... until you consider that the month began with the team on an 11-1 streak that actually started on May 31--the day I got married, as it happened. Then from June 14-30, the Phillies went 4-11 and lost five straight series—three in interleague play and two against the Mets. These included the notorious road interleague series at Seattle and Oakland, in which the Phils lost four of six while playing the likes of Tomas Perez and Ramon Martinez at first place as an injured Jim Thome DH’d. Meanwhile, a young slugger named Ryan Howard continued to tear up the International League. Notable transactions in June 2005 included the highly questionable trade of Placido Polanco to Detroit for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez, as well as a release and re-signing of Amaury Telemaco. Appropriately enough, Thome’s season (and, as it turned out, his Phillies career) ended on June 30 after he went 0-10 in three games against the Mets. The team lost five straight, tied for its worst losing streak of the 2005 season, from June 23-28.

2006: 9-18 (.333), 120/165. The Phillies began June two games over .500 and in striking distance of the Mets in the NL East. And they actually fared pretty well for the first week of the month, winning five of seven after sweeping Arizona… and then the bottom fell out, as they lost three of four to the Nationals and were swept at home by the Mets to fall 9.5 games back and essentially exit the division race. But things got even worse as interleague began: series losses at home to the still-awful Devil Rays and Yankees, the seemingly annual sweep by Boston, and two more series losses at Baltimore and Toronto. Though the team eventually recovered to surge back into the division race, they ultimately fell short of a playoff spot—largely because of the hole they dug for themselves back in June. The month included the signing and sole Phillies appearance (which, not coincidentally, proved to be the last career appearance) of pitcher Adam Bernero. as well as the pickup of Rick White and the trade of Daniel Haigwood to Texas for Fabio "Model Dictator" Castro. Randy Wolf was lost for the season after going six innings against the Brewers on June 11. The Phillies’ worst losing streak of the year, seven games, ran from June 20-28.

2007: 15-13 (.536), 143/166. The outlier, in which the Phils put up a winning record despite getting badly outscored for the month. June began in characteristic fashion, with a 13-0 loss to the Giants at home, but afterward things picked up. They even did fairly well in interleague play by Phillies standards (6-6), albeit against the weak-sister AL Central. The month did end with three straight losses to the Mets, including the major-league debut of J.A. Happ. Notable transactions included one awful free-agent signing (Jose Mesa) and one very good one (J.C. Romero). The bad June injury of 2007? Jon Lieber, who blew out his knee at Cleveland on June 20, two starts after throwing a complete-game shutout at Kansas City. Freddy Garcia was also lost for the year; on the plus side, Kyle Kendrick was recalled to replace him.

2008: 12-14 (.462), 112/101. The Phils’ sole losing month (not including March, in which they played one game and lost) in their championship season. Again, it wasn’t until the second week of June that things went south; through June 13, the team had a 9-3 record for the month, culminating with a 20-2 blowout of the Carindals in St. Louis that marked the eighth time in 53 games that the team had scored in double digits (and their second 20-run performance in 17 games). It was also the last time the Phils would crack 10 runs until July 26; they’d score 12 more the next day, and that was it for double-digits in 2008. After June 13, the Phils scored 47 runs in their 14 remaining games during the month (an average of 3.4), and were held to two runs or fewer in eight of those games; through their first 69 games, they had scored 373 runs (an average of 5.4), and been held to two or fewer just 13 times. Probably not coincidentally, Chase Utley's marked offensive falloff began in mid-June; it's likely that he sustained the hip injury that bedeviled him through the remainder of 2008 around that time. The team had its worst losing streak of the season (six games) from June 17-24.

2009 (through June 18): 8-8 (.500), 81/76. Again, it’s tough to differentiate between the Phillies’ interleague struggles and their general pattern of sucking in June; this year, the team’s inexplicable struggles at home (8-18 against all non-Nationals opponents) adds another layer to the story. The just-concluded 1-5 stretch against Boston and Toronto made this June look much worse than it did a week ago; on the other hand, the month already has seen Brad Lidge, Scott Eyre and most recently Raul Ibanez to the disabled list, and Ryan Howard has dropped down his annual rabbit hole with 27 strikeouts and a .232 average in 69 June at-bats.

The good news? The team has just ten games left this month, around off-days on the 22^nd and 29^th. And maybe the rain will keep up.

All-Time Indians - Homegrown vs. Acquired

Jay — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:45:11 -0000

I was e-mailed an interesting link last night, from a delightly obsessed baseball blogger who goes by the name Sully. Apparently he is going through all 30 franchises this offseason and naming, not one, but two all-time great rosters for each franchise. One roster is exclusively players who were drafted and/or signed as amateurs -- 100% homegrown -- and the other is players who were acquired via trade or free agency.

His complete rules are here, and his full article on the Indians All-Time Rosters is here and definitely worth a full read. Since he doesn't present a simple listing anywhere in his article I'll present one here. I nudged him on a couple of choices, but who are the big snubs? And which club would you rather have on the field?

ALL-TIME HOMEGROWN		ALL-TIME ACQUIRED
Victor Martinez	C	Sandy Alomar Jr.
Jim Thome	1B	Eddie Murray
Bobby Avila	2B	Napolean Lajoie
Lou Boudreau	SS	Omar Vizquel
Al Rosen	3B	Brook Jacoby
Manny Ramirez	LF	Shoeless Joe Jackson
Earl Averill	CF	Tris Speaker
Larry Doby	RF	Elmer Flick
Albert Belle	DH	Travis Hafner
Bob Feller	SP	Gaylord Perry
Bob Lemon	SP	Early Wynn
Herb Score	SP	Len Barker
C.C. Sabathia	SP	Orel Hershiser
Addie Joss	SP	Cliff Lee
Satchel Paige	RP	Jose Mesa
Ray Narleski	RP	Bob Wickman
Gary Bell	RP	Gene Bearden
Mel Harder	RP	Doug Jones
Sam McDowell	RP	Stan Coveleski
Joe Sewell	IF	Carlos Baerga
Hal Trosky	IF	Roberto Alomar
Cory Snyder	OF	Kenny Lofton
Dale Mitchell	OF	Grady Sizemore
Ray Fosse	C	Tony Peña
Rocky Colavito	25	Cy Young

UPDATES: Sully has updated his rosters based on new information and feedback from the LGT mob. First, the presumptive, eventual MVP Grady Sizemore takes Joe Carter's spot. Next, Addie Joss has moved from the Acquried roster to the Homegrown roster, knocking Charles Nagy off the Homegrown roster and making room for Cliff Lee on the Acquired roster. I'm not sure Lee deserves a spot over Nagy, but since they're not competing for the same spot, the point is moot.

The Brewer Advent Calendar #10: Trevor Hoffman

KLSnow — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:00:10 -0000

Behind door #10 we find...Trevor Hoffman!

via www.heybrewer.com

So we established last week that Hoffman has something in common with this guy:

via i14.photobucket.com

But we also know he has something in common with this guy:

via www.operationlettertosanta.com

Yes, Trevor Hoffman is old. He'll be 41 on Opening Day, when he starts his 17th big league season. He's also averaged 37.8 saves over the last 14 seasons, despite one season (2003) where he didn't close a single game.

In 2007, Hoffman was the oldest pitcher ever to record 40 saves. In 2008, Hoffman was only the third pitcher ever to record 30 saves in a season after his 40th birthday. In 2009, he could be the second ever to reach that figure at 41. Here are the oldest pitchers ever to record 30 saves:

Pitcher	Season	Age	Team	Saves
Dennis Eckersley	1997	42	St. Louis	36
Dennis Eckersley	1996	41	St. Louis	30
Doug Jones	1997	40	Milwaukee	36
Trevor Hoffman	2008	40	San Diego	30
Trevor Hoffman	2007	39	San Diego	42
Todd Jones	2007	39	Detroit	38
Trevor Hoffman	2006	38	San Diego	46
Jose Mesa	2004	38	Pittsburgh	43
Mariano Rivera	2008	38	New York (AL)	39
Todd Jones	2006	38	Detroit	37
Dennis Eckersley	1993	38	Oakland	36
Tom Gordon	2006	38	Philadelphia	34