SB Nation - Jim Thome

Evan Longoria and The 500 Home Run Club

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:45:16 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

As 2010 projections start to be released, we will take a look at some of the more important ones from time to time. Projections are what they are, but they are still fun to look at. All in all, I would say the ZiPs projections are a bit more realistic than the Bill James projections because ZiPs tends to be a bit conservative. Aside from the single season projections, you may have noticed that the ZiPs projections include an extrapolated career projection; most namely the projection of Evan Longoria.

In case you missed it, according to ZiPs, Longoria will finish his career with a line of .263/.349/.501 and 526 home runs in 2535 career games. Remember that we take the yearly projections with a grain of salt, so this roughly ~16 year projection should be taken even more lightly. Nonetheless, there isn't much going and it's nice to dream of Longoria hitting that 526^th home run as a member of the Rays.

Currently, there are 25 members of the 500 home run club with more to be added over the next decade. By the time Longoria is projected to be approaching such a milestone the membership could be close to double.

Here is the list as it stands today...

	HR	AB
Barry Bonds	762	9847
Hank Aaron	755	12364
Babe Ruth	714	8398
Willie Mays	660	10881
Ken Griffey Jr.	630	9703
Sammy Sosa	609	8813
Frank Robinson	586	10006
Mark McGwire	583	6187
Alex Rodriguez	583	8304
Harmon Killebrew	573	8147
Rafael Palmeiro	569	10472
Jim Thome	564	7706
Reggie Jackson	563	9864
Mike Schmidt	548	8352
Manny Ramirez	546	7962
Mickey Mantle	536	8102
Jimmie Foxx	534	8134
Ted Williams	521	7706
Willie McCovey	521	8197
Frank Thomas	521	8199
Eddie Matthews	512	8537
Ernie Banks	512	9421
Mel Ott	511	9456
Gary Sheffield	509	9217
Eddie Murray	504	11336

Obviously, longevity is a must. Even Mark McGwire, who has the least about of at-bats of any member, needed over 6,100 at-bats. McGwire by far has the best HR/AB ratio hitting a "dinger' nearly every 10.6 at-bats or a full AB better than second place Babe Ruth, who averaged a home run every 11.7 at-bats. Longoria is no where near that kind of pace, but he is still ahead of six players in the club

	HR Per AB
Mark McGwire	10.61235
Babe Ruth	11.7619
Barry Bonds	12.92257
Jim Thome	13.66312
Harmon Killebrew	14.21815
Alex Rodriguez	14.24357
Sammy Sosa	14.47126
Manny Ramirez	14.58242
Ted Williams	14.79079
Mickey Mantle	15.11567
Jimmie Foxx	15.23221
Mike Schmidt	15.24088
Ken Griffey Jr	15.40159
Willie McCovey	15.73321
Frank Thomas	15.73704
Hank Aaron	16.37616
Willie Mays	16.48636
Eddie Matthews	16.67383
Frank Robinson	17.07509
Evan Longoria	17.2
Reggie Jackson	17.52043
Gary Sheffield	18.10806
Ernie Banks	18.40039
Rafael Palmeiro	18.40422
Mel Ott	18.50489
Eddie Murray	22.49206

A few other things to note...

In 2008, Longo's HR/AB was 16.59, but dropped to 17.6 in 2009. Injuries seem to have slowed him down at bit last year, but a 17.2 average is pretty good in its own right.
Right now Longoria's rate is closest to Frank Robinson. It took Robinson nearly 8,500 at-bats to get to 500. If Longoria stays on his current pace of 17.2, it would take 8,600 to get to 500. That means Longo would need to keep his same HR rate and amass 600 at-bats each year for the next 14+ seasons.
Aside from the 526 homers, the projection has Longoria hitting 628 doubles. Only Hank Aaron (624) and Barry Bonds (601) have hit 500+ home runs and 600+ doubles.
Longoria currently hits a double every 13.76 ABs. That pace is better than any member of the 500 home run club with Ted Williams' 14.76 coming as second best.
The last statistic I looked at was walks. Longoria ranks in the bottom third in terms of walk rates amongst the list, but at age 24 he has plenty of time to practice his patience at the plate.

Odds are Longoria won't play long enough to actually hit 500 home runs, and the odds are even longer that if he does it will be as a member of the Rays. He would need to play for another 14 or 15 years at a high level and avoid a major injury. While the quest for 500 may fall short, the fact that we have a player so talented that 500 home runs doesn't seem that crazy is pretty good.

Change 'Dem Sox!: Jim Thome A Red Sox In 2010?

Randy Booth — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:00:38 -0000

by Mark Avery - AP

2 months ago: FILE - In this May 25, 2009 file photo, Chicago White Sox's Jim Thome watches the ball fly after hitting a three-run home run against the Los Angeles Angels in the third inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Thome from the Chicago White Sox on Monday night, Aug. 31, 2009. Also joining the Dodgers' lineup is right-hander Jon Garland, who came over from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The deals were announced in the top of the eighth inning of the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game, with both trades completed before the midnight EDT deadline required for postseason eligibility. (AP Photo/Mark Avery, File)

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There are so many things wrong with Jim Thome going to the Red Sox that as I propose the idea, I'm also going to talk myself out of it.

It sounds messed up -- and it is -- but follow me on the journey, won't you?

Let's just get the obvious out of the way in reasons why the Sox and Thome aren't a match:

Can't play defense. The only person that doesn't play defense on the Red Sox is David Ortiz. Do we need two Ortiz-like defenders? One is bad enough.
Might have better offers elsewhere. He could probably be the starting DH for a lot of American League teams, including the White Sox, who could bring the slugger back.
Lefties dominate him. OK, dominate is not the word for a player with 564 career home runs. Let's just say he's not as good against lefties as he is righties.

Randy, you made a good case against yourself. Good job. Now let's turn the page and talk about why Thome could be a fit with the Red Sox.

First of all, Thome is a slugger. Even at the age of 38 last season, Thome hit 23 home runs in 107 games with the White Sox. He had an .891 OPS before the All-Star break last year. It doesn't matter who the batter is, we'll take that. While his batting average might not be the prettiest, he can still put good wood on the ball.

Thome is also a perfect candidate for the Sox because he has a fantastic batting eye. His lifetime .404 OBP (with a .277 batting average) would make him fit right in with players like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Victor Martinez and, potentially, Jason Bay (and hopefully whoever our new shortstop is).

OK, he can hit for power and get on base. That's a good combo. What else? He's going to be cheap. He made $13 million last year in his time between the Dodgers and White Sox, but I will guarantee right now that Thome will not sign for more than $5M this offseason. There is no way. If he does, I will change my avatar to Evan Longoria for one month. And I hate Evan Longoria.

Signing Thome would be kind of like the Sox signing John Smoltz, Takashi Saito and Brad Penny last year. Three guys who are obviously past their primes, but Theo Epstein still sees that they can contribute somehow. Well, Penny did all right -- he wasn't a complete bust. Smoltz was a complete bust. And Saito was great. So if Thome's between Penny and Saito, I'll be happy.

Thome would be great insurance for the Sox if David Ortiz decided to hit like David Ortiz pre-June 2009. If Ortiz falters, we can stick Thome in the lineup on occasion and, hopefully, he doesn't falter. Thome is like the white version of David Ortiz ... and I really can't see many more differences than that, to be honest.

The only thing that would make Thome better is if a) he hit lefties better (that way, Ortiz smashes righties and Thome smashes lefties -- a great combo) and b) Thome could really play defense. But then again, if Thome could do both of those things, he would be going for more than $5M this offseason.

With Thome, the Sox would get a power hitter off the bench that has a great batting eye (not to mention a great clubhouse guy, from all reports). The downsides are the fact he's older and can't play defense, but he'd provide substantial pop off the bench and could help the Sox if anything happens to Ortiz in 2010.

Call me crazy, but I'm pulling for Randy to be right in this debate.

Poll

Who's right in this debate?

White Sox Show Their Hand With Teahen Trade

The Cheat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:35:43 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Two days ago, as the Yankees marched on to yet another purchased World Series title, the White Sox appeared like they could take any number of routes to fill out their '10 lineup. I had planned on writing an SSS Official Off-Season Plan as I have in the past -- quick synopsis: upgrade IF defense by negotiating with the devil. Buy Adrian Beltre, shift the left side of the infield one space right. Find a cheap scrapheap corner outfielder. I was thinking Xavier Nady (also a Boras client) and re-up with Jim Thome -- but Kenny Williams had other ideas, wasting no time in reshaping the '10 roster.

Jettisoned (for sure): Jermaine Dye, Josh Fields, Chris Getz; (maybe): Scott Podsednik (I'm never going to write off his return)

Returning: Mark Kotsay

Newcomer: Mark Teahen

We basically knew all those moves Thursday morning, but it still wasn't apparent how the Sox would use Teahen. My own thought was that it would mean an end to our years of having a lumbering, full-time DH on the roster. In that scenario, Teahen would have played 3B/OF and Pods probably would have been back as well, rotating with any number of players through the DH spot. But Kenny erased that notion by naming Teahen the White Sox 3rd baseman of the immediate future.

What does it all mean for the '10 roster?

The moves leave the Sox with two obvious holes at Designated Hitter and a corner outfield spot. DH is unlikely to be filled anytime soon, as the Sox don't have much to spend and the bottom has fallen out of the defensively-challenged hitter market in recent years. It's likely that the Sox will go bargain hunting as the calendar turns to February, with Williams not ruling out bringing back Jim Thome or even Dye.

"I don't think you can rule it out because it's a long offseason," said Williams, adding he might not fill the designated hitter role until the latter part of the winter. "We just got started. Everyone knows I think the world of this guy."

The remaining corner outfield spot is a bit trickier. The Sox stand with about $90M committed to their players making above the league minimum (arbitration figures estimated), and an operating budget that figures to come in under $100M. It's unlikely that they can bring in adequate talent at those two premium offensive positions on the open market for less than $10M. This means a trade, of course, is on the horizon; and Bobby Jenks seems like the most likely to leave.

Phil Rogers seems eager to remove Paul Konerko's $12M contract, though he never provides a team willing to take on that contract, or how the Sox will replace his production.

No, I suspect Jenks-for-an-outfielder will be the rumor of the off-season; and it's already started courtesy Joe Cowley with a Jenks and Jordan Danks for Carl Crawford postulation on 670 the score. We'll have plenty of time to discuss these rumors over the winter.

For now, let's take a look at what it means for the Sox as they stand currently:

Beckham moves to 2nd -- In my unpublished off-season plan, I wanted to move Beckham off third not because I didn't think he could play there, but because I thought it was the best way to upgrade both offense and defense at the same time. I don't particularly care which infield spot he gets moved to. Alexei Ramirez committed a number of errors and short, yes; and he was a bit of an adventure turning the double play. But he was solid, and overall a reliable glove in the field.

I learned after the 2000 season not to get upset at an adequate shortstop who draws the ire of radio call-in guests with some high profile errors. Every shortstop makes errors, and most of them are of the 'bad' variety. Alexei is no different than any host of major league shortstops. He was the definition of average defensively. He was merely frustrating because he showed plus range and the ability to make some spectacular plays, but negated it by making the occasional annoyingly lackadaisical error, which he seemed to correct as the season wore on. (He was probably one of the top 5 defensive SS in baseball in the second half). I'll take my chances that he's more the second-half Alexei than first-half.

So Beckham moves to second base, a position that would seem to be more natural for him, and his predicted destination since being drafted in '08. He should have no trouble making the transition, as we saw him make considerable progress at 3B over the course of the season. My only complaint is that if the Sox had this in mind, there was no reason not to be playing Beckham at 2B over the last month of the season when the Sox were clearly out of the AL central race.

As for Teahen at third, um, yeah, that's another story. He's bad defensively. Not quite Josh Fields bad, but close enough that he shouldn't be considered a first option, and isn't the type of player who pushes a franchise player like Beckham to another position.

Offensively, Teahen is living off his reputation from a breakout '06 season when he put up and ISO of .225. In the three years since, he's averaged an ISO of about .135. He has the glove of Mark Reynolds, and the bat of Pedro Feliz.

Watching Teahen bat against the White Sox in recent years, you might get the impression that he was a speedy baserunner, as I seem to recall two separate inside-the-park homeruns. And while he did use Kauffman's expansive outfield to pile up 23 triples in his first 4 seasons, he managed only 1 last season. Diving into the Bill James Handbook, Teahen is listed as having a negative impact on the bases last year due to his ability to run into key outs. James also has a measure called Manufactured Runs Created, a measure of the little things (bunts, steals, sac flies, etc.) impact on creating runs. In this category, Teahen ranked among the Royals top 3 at 16 MRC. But the Royals ranked last in the league, and Teahen appears to be marginally above average here. (A full data set was not provided, and I'm not going to draw any conclusions based on a year of data.)

Teahen's only under contract for a year, and, thanks to the $2M from the Royals, should only cost the Sox about $2.5M. So maybe he's just a stop-gap, future utility guy, and the Sox have supreme confidence in their 3B depth (Retherford, Viciedo, Morel).

So what did the Sox gain by adding Teahen? Not much in my view. They didn't give up anything of value. Chris Getz is the best player they gave up, and he might be able to post some league average production at his peak (if he can stay healthy).

Overall, it was the right idea -- getting a 3B to move Beckham to a more natural position -- but Teahen is the wrong player to take the Sox to the next level.

Rosterbation-Mania!

U-God — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play for the White Sox next year. Esteban, please put your hand down. Seriously though, Esteban, you aren't welcome. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Over the past couple days, and inspired by the infamous U.S.S. Mariner post and the on-going reader input over at Sox Machine, I've been putting together my off-season plan. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible (no video game trades), especially in terms of payroll. Feel encouraged to leave your own roster plans in the comments section. U-God's 2010 plan lies after the jump.

Free Agent Acquistions:

DH- Nick Johnson, 1 year/5.5 mil

I love Jim Thome and always will. He is my back-up plan. With that being said, I would be thrilled if KW went out and got Nick Johnson. The 31 year old lefty has a career .849 OPS fueled largely by his .402 career OBP. Johnson also allows us to rotate Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin in at DH as well. He does come with injury-risks, but using him mainly as a DH in combination with one of the premier medical staffs in baseball should counteract that. The injury risk combined with the down market should allow the Sox to grab him at a reasonable price for a year.

RF- Marlon Byrd, 1 year/4.5 mil

Byrd would be a very refreshing change of pace out in rightfield. He has posted an OPS above .800 each year since joining the American League and has been an above-average defender in right as well. His career high 20 homers last year will guarentee him a raise, though probably a modest one. Byrd also provides a nice stop-gap for our outfield prospects.

C- Brian Schneider, 1 year/1.5 mil

Schneider's days as a starter are over. He's a lefty-catcher who has had good success stopping opponent's run games (38 CS%). Being a backup drops his price tag and lowers his risk of getting hurt again.

1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, 1 year/1.5 mil

Bring him back. He was good after we traded for him and gives Ozzie more flexibility with his bench and lineups.

Contract Extension:

Offer John Danks the Jon Lester deal (5 years/30 mil). It's a back-loaded contract that buys out John's arbitration years and allows him to hit free agency at age 31. It may take more money to lock him up, but for simplicity's sake, I'm just going to use the Lester deal.

Batting Order:

DH- Nick Johnson, 3B- Gordon Beckham, LF- Carlos Quentin, 1B- Paul Konerko, C- A.J. Pierzynski, CF- Alex Rios, RF- Marlon Byrd, SS- Alexei Ramirez, 2B- Chris Getz.

That OBP in front of Beckham gives me dirty thoughts.

Bench:

C- Brian Schneider, 1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, UTIL- Jayson Nix, OF- Alejandro De Aza

Nix gives pop off the bench and De Aza gives Ozzie a speedy pinch-runner for late in the game.

Starting Rotation:

Jake Peavy-RHP, Mark Buehrle-LHP, Gavin Floyd-RHP, John Danks-LHP, Freddy Garcia-RHP

I like the idea of having Peavy and Garcia pitch back to back.

Bullpen:

Bobby Jenks-CL, Matt Thornton-LHP, Scott Linebrink-RHP, DJ Carrasco-RHP, Tony Peña-RHP, Jhonny Nuñez-RHP, Randy Williams-LHP

I wanted to trade Jenks, but his value is too low right now and I don't want a repeat of the Nick Swisher trade.

Other Costs:

$1 mil buy-out for Jermaine Dye

$.35 mil for Mike MacDougal, damn him

Team Payroll:

$96.65 mil, only .55 higher than last season's opening salary. All figures (except my FAs and arbitration guesstimates) taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A Preliminary Look at the 2010 AL East Offenses - Part 2

Stacey — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 05:08:43 -0000

More photos » by Mark Lennihan - AP

He's flashy. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

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Last week's 2010 AL East projections post covered catcher, first base, and second base for the O's and their divisional rivals, so today we'll take a look at shortstop, third base, and designated hitter. In case you missed the last post, the projections being used are those by Bill James that will be contained in his 2010 Handbook. This information was provided to SB Nation with permission to be posted as we see fit.

The projections for the first part were easier to narrow down as they covered two sure things in the lineup (Matt Wieters and Brian Roberts) and one guess made by me based on the players in the Orioles system right now (Luke Scott). This section, however, is trickier. For one thing, the bulk of the 3B projections by Bill James goes to Melvin Mora. Remember that Bill James doesn't make predictions on if a player will play/be on the team but rather how he will do if he IS on the team. And if Melvin Mora were on the team next year the chances are he'd be the starting 3B for the O's in most games. But Mora will not be back, so those projections can be scrapped as far as we're concerned. That leaves at 3B, among the current options, Ty Wigginton and Joshua Bell. The odds are that Wiggy will start the year at 3B and if Bell proves himself at 3B he will make an appearance sometime in the season. But it's the off-season and frankly talking about Ty Wigginton isn't very fun, so instead I'm going to pretend that Josh Bell makes the team out of spring training.

Additionally, I already used last year's main DH in the projection for first base, so I'm going to go completely off base and suggest a brand new DH for the O's in 2010. It's based on nothing more than a little dream I have that you can feel free to make fun of. Of the existing options, it's much more likely that the O's will stick Luke Scott back at DH and start the year with Michael Aubrey or the equivalent at 1B, but that's boring.

And of course, Cesar Izturis plays SS and he is not good at hitting.

On to the projections after the jump!

Shortstop

Let's get Izzy out of the way first. We all know that, while head and shoulders above the shortstops used in 2008, Izzy still isn't great shakes with the bat. On a team with a lot of big hitters Izzy can be a valuable glove as long as his bat stays at the bottom of the order. For some reason Dave Trembley loved using him in the two hole last year, which was possibly the most infuriating thing about his managing, at least to me (I'm sure you all have your own).

Cesar Izturis	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 Projections	138	446	122	19	1	52	34	36.9	28	33	.274	.321	.336	.657
Izturis '09 stats	114	387	99	14	2	34	30	32.7	18	38	.256	.294	.328	.622
James '10 Projections	126	387	100	16	1	40	28	37	22	34	.258	.303	.318	.621

Yeah, that's not very pretty. The only real thing Izzy has to going for him is that he is indisputably a very good defensive shortstop. Even with his abysmal hitting in 2009 (an OBP of under .300? Seriously?), his defense was good enough to warrant him a WAR of 1.3. Not great in comparison to the other AL East shortstops, but not bad considering the offensive numbers he put up. Because of the more glaring holes at other places in the lineup, Izzy's job appears to be safe in 2010 but filling the position with better talent will most certainly be a goal before the 2011 season.

James '10 projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Derek Jeter	156	631	200	31	15	103	72	108	64	99	.317	.388	.444	.831
Jed Lowrie	129	384	100	35	9	55	59	59	53	80	.260	.350	.438	.788
Jason Bartlett	146	540	157	31	8	82	54	78	48	89	.291	.355	.407	.763
Marco Scutaro	147	549	145	30	10	79	57	72	68	76	.264	.347	.381	.728

Derek Jeter is Derek Jeter. He's consistent. He's going to get in the neighborhood of 200 hits, his OPS is going to be in the mid .800s, and we're going to dislike him. I'm not really one to play the what if game, but do you know who the Orioles drafted two picks before Jeter? Jeffrey Hammonds. Imagine how things might have been just a little different with Jeter on the team. Hell, imagine how different Derek Jeter's life would have been. I somehow doubt he'd have ended up dating all of those celebrities while spending the summer living in a condo in Canton.

Shortstop is a weird place for the Red Sox. In 2009 no one played more than 81 games there. Jed Lowrie, their young prospect, missed most of the year recovering from wrist surgery. Nick Green filled in for him but then missed much of the later part of the season with a back injury. Alex Gonzalez completed the SS merry go round when he arrived via trade in mid-August to fill in for Green.

Jason Bartlett hit 14 home runs in 2009. In his 4 big league seasons prior to '09 he hit a total of 11 home runs. Consider me skeptical that he'll hit 8 in 2010. Everything else seems pretty in line with his career, though. Similiarly, Marco Scutaro's 12 HR in 2009 was a career high for him. He usually hits about 7 and has 50 in his career. There isn't a huge difference in 7 and 10, I suppose, but it still strikes me as just a touch high.

Verdict: Izzy's the worst. Sorry Izzy.

Third Base:

Third base might be the biggest question mark going into the 2010 season. Will Andy MacPhail sign or trade for someone? Will that someone be a short term fix while the team waits for Joshua Bell, or someone who might stay there long term? Will MacPhail choose to wait patiently for Bell to prove himself in AAA and put Ty Wigginton out there in the meantime? Will he say screw it and throw Bell out there on Opening Day to see if he sinks or swims? I have no idea. One thing we do know is that longtime Oriole Melvin Mora will not be back in 2010. It'll be a little strange not having Melvin out there on Opening Day. Good, don't get me wrong, but strange.

I was a little surprised when I saw Josh Bell's projections from Bill James. It's my observation that his projections tend towards the optimistic side for younger players, so I'm taking this with a few grains of salt. Still, it's hard not to get just a little excited at the prospect of this sort of production from a rookie 3B.

Joshua Bell	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 AA (LAD & BAL)	127	448	138	35	20	65	76	61	98	.295	.367	.516	.892
James '10 Projections	91	347	100	21	11	51	61	45	71	.288	.370	.455	.825

Bell's numbers are only projected out to 91 games which probably makes sense given the fact that he's never played above AA. But if there is any chance at all he could put up numbers like that, I can't wait to see him. As has been noted, he's a switch hitter who has his troubles hitting lefties. In his minor league career, he's hit .245/.327/.366 against lefties, which is beyond terrible. He was even worse in 2009 when he spent the entire year in AA. If he does make the jump to the big leagues in 2010 it might be a good idea to play Wiggy at 3B against lefties, at least until Bell proves he can do something, anything, against lefties.

But forget about the whole lefties issue for just a second and look at those numbers. Those are pretty great numbers coming from the 3B spot, and would be the best numbers from that position for the O's since Mora's career year in 2004. It'd be a great start to have that position contributing again, especially considering the talent at 3B throughout the division.

James '10 projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alex Rodriguez	145	544	160	26	37	104	113	84	125	.294	.400	.550	.950
Mike Lowell	138	529	147	35	19	66	84	46	74	.278	.339	.456	.795
Evan Longoria	157	595	171	42	37	106	120	73	134	.287	.370	.548	.918
Edwin Encarnacion	129	452	117	28	21	64	69	50	91	.259	.343	.465	.808

I pine for Evan Longoria. I'm so jealous of the Rays because they have him. When you compare him, Alex Rodriguez, and even Mike Lowell to 2009 Melvin Mora it's no wonder the Orioles did as poorly as they did. It's not even in the same league. But I am cautiously optimistic about Josh Bell. He'll obviously never be A-Rod or Longoria, but he's young and talented. As much as I missed George Sherrill during the great bullpen implosion of '09, I'm thrilled at the idea of what Josh Bell might become.

Verdict: The future is uncertain, but at least it's not Melvin Mora.

Designated Hitter

And here is where I really go off the rails. As mentioned above, I'm going to share with you a little dream I've had about the Orioles designated hitter in 2010. I don't really think it will happen but I am sort of in love with the idea. When I looked at the original projections provided by James I made a lineup in my head where Reimold is the everyday DH with Felix Pie in LF. The more I thought about it however, the more I wanted to put together the most imposing lineup. It's no secret I love Pie, so I felt a little guilty leaving him out, but it was a sacrifice I had to make.

It's been said that the Orioles are going after a bat this year. The lineup is pretty set other than DH, 1B, and 3B, and I don't think they'll do anything long term for 3B given their hopes for Josh Bell. That leaves 1B and DH. What Andy MacPhail is going to do is a mystery to everyone, so allow me to propose a solution at DH: Jim Thome. I know what you may be thinking. Thome is old, he's been hobbling around most of this year, he's not a long term solution. All of those things may be true, but hear me out.

Jim Thome can hit. He hits home runs, and a lot of them. The flag court calls to him, "Hit it here, Jim!" Not to mention how he'd abuse the wind tunnel that is right field in Yankee Stadium. So he's old, it's true. On more than one occassion I've found myself chatting with Brotz13 when the topic turns to Thome and how we'd like him to be the Jake Taylor of the 2010-2011 Baltimore Orioles. By all accounts Jim Thome is just an awesome dude. Not that it matters all that much, but the team could benefit from an older dude who's been in the playoffs, who can mash, who will take a walk with the best of them, and who is awesome.

Jim Thome	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
'09 James Projection	150	530	134	25	38	93	102	107	166	.253	.382	.515	.897
Thome '09 stats	124	362	90	15	23	55	77	69	123q	.249	.366	.481	.847
'10 James projections	132	441	108	20	29	73	84	88	146	.245	.374	.488	.862

Thome's '09 stats are a little weird thanks to the fact that he was traded to the Dodgers on August 31st and therefore had just 17 AB in the entire month of September. As it turns out, Thome isn't a very good pinch hitter. Prior to his move to LA he was hitting .249/.372/.493. Not a huge difference, but an OPS of .865 looks a heck of a lot better than .847.

The designated hitter in the rest of the AL East isn't really so scary, in my opinion. Ortiz is on the downward swing, Matsui is still very good but gets hurt pretty much every other year. Pat Burrell was a huge disappointment in Tampa Bay. Adam Lind of the Blue Jays is the most awesome of the bunch, but considering how sad the Blue Jays are it doesn't really matter. Yes, an Orioles fan is calling the Blue Jays sad. I'm arrogant that way.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hideki Matsui	139	507	143	27	23	75	88	65	81	.282	.367	.475	.842
David Ortiz	138	484	128	34	29	79	99	77	112	.264	.369	.519	.887
Pat Burrell	119	346	82	17	17	59	54	62	100	.237	.356	.439	.795
Adam Lind	153	590	180	43	31	90	113	52	107	.305	.364	.542	.907

Color me skeptical on that Ortiz projection. He hasn't had numbers like that since 2007 (when they were much better) and his numbers in 2008 and 2009 have gotten progressively worse. Yes he turned it around this year but you can't ignore the massive slump he was in for the first half of this past season.

Verdict: The O's actual DH will probably be much worse than Jim Thome.

And thus ends the fantasy portion of the 2010 projections. Stay tuned for part 3 which will focus on my very favorite part of the lineup: the outfield.

A Tale Of Two Indians

Jay — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:39:43 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

And you may ask yourself, well, how did I get here?

Browse more photos »

This article originally appeared on Yahoo! Sports. Discussion of the article is here.

As we await the first pitch of the 2009 World Series, you will forgive us Cleveland fans if we're not quite sure how we feel about this Game One matchup. At the moment, we're merely dubious, but we'll be feeling a whole range of emotions when C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee take the mound Wednesday night. There will be an irresistible pinch of excitement, watching the players we've spent years rooting for reach this pinnacle. There will be sadness, watching them achieve it with other teams, and for other teams' fans. Over the course of the game, there will be some fun moments watching "our guys," but in the end, that's going to give way to an all-abiding sense of disappointment.

There's going to be anger. In fact, there already is. Anger at a team that was picked to win their division four years in a row, yet managed just one winning record in those four years. Anger that we've made the playoffs just once in nine seasons — I'm already counting 2010 — and almost went to the World Series in that one winning year. Almost. Anger at a GM who just announced the hiring of a manager who was cast away by the worst organization in the game. Anger at an ownership group perceived as too thrifty to pay top-dollar for a name like Bobby Valentine, just as they were too cheap to keep these two lefty aces on the Cleveland roster.

Perhaps most of all, there is anger at the sports gods who ordered up this special humiliation for Cleveland fans. Two true aces emerge, after dozens of seasons without any aces. Our boys bring home the Cy Young Award in consecutive seasons — which never happens! — only to be traded away in consecutive seasons. Yes, this outrage, it's juicy. Much worse than that 43–0 homecoming drubbing the Steelers gave the Browns in 1999, far more inexplicable than the Indians' three-game collapse to lose the 2007 ALCS. This one, it's special. Just like blowing the World Series with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in Game Seven, it's a screwing that's been saved just for Cleveland fans and nobody else. And don't think we're not pissed about it.

Lots of Indians went to the postseason this year, you see. The Dodgers lineup had three — Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake and Ron Belliard — not to mention our all-time home run leader, Jim Thome, on the bench. Victor Martinez went with the Red Sox, while Rafael Betancourt went with the Rockies. The Cardinals had Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick, both of whom had short stints with the Indians. And now, the coup de grace, an all-bartered-away-Indians matchup in Game One of the World Series. Two guys who could never put it together for the Indians — or was it the other way around? — battling it out for all the marbles. Yeah, you'd be pissed, too.

One thing Indians fans will see when Sabathia takes the mound is our last first-round draft pick who actually gave the Indians a good season in the majors. Sabathia went 20th overall in 1999, spent just one full season in the minors in 2000, and debuted with the Indians at the start of the 2001 season at the tender age of 20. He was a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy right out of the gate, and while he made the fans wait through four years of fits and starts before finally emerging as a "true ace," even the most skeptical fans — the ones who couldn't stand the crooked cap and copious belly — would have to admit that he did eventually dominate.

Lee came to the Indians organization in 2002 the same way he left in 2009, in a big swap, with the Indians sending an ascendant ace out for an impressive group of prospects. The ace was Bartolo Colon, and Lee came back to the Indians in a package that was so sweet, Grady Sizemore was thought to be the third-best guy in it. "The Colon Deal" set the standard for getting premium value out of a star player in his walk year; all subsequent deals are compared to it, and never favorably. Teams don't just give away future All-Stars the way they used to. Nobody could have guessed that the Indians would be on the sinking-ship side of two more Colon Deals before the decade was out.

Indians fans naturally were livid in 2002, as they are now. They didn't understand the trade then, and the media hadn't really figured out how to portray it. (The crawl at the bottom of the ESPN screen read: "Indians trade P Bartolo Colon to Expos for 1B Lee Stevens and minor leaguers.") I still remember GM Mark Shapiro standing bravely at the podium, really like no GM I can recall before or since, saying something like, "I know I'm going to catch hell for this, but this is the only way we win in the future."

Both players emerged as front-of-the-rotation guys by the end of 2005. One-year rental Kevin Millwood was the de facto staff ace that season, somehow winning the ERA title with a losing record. Lee was in his first full season in the bigs, and he looked ready to fulfill Peter Gammons' chipper observation that he "had All-Star written all over him." Sabathia, now 24, struggled mightily for most of the season, as he often had during the previous three. The Indians were doing their trademark early-season free-fall, but the offense seemed to jump to life once batting coach Eddie Murray was dumped. Lee rode the soaring run support to an 18–5 record and a fourth-place Cy Young finish.

Sabathia didn't click until August, but he posted a 1.79 ERA over his final ten starts, providing a finishing kick as the Indians' completed four solid months of .650 baseball, making them a virtual lock for the postseason. Then, inexplicably, the Indians lost six of their final seven games, losing their playoff berth on the last day of the season. Sabathia delivered the club's lone win in that frustrating week, shutting down the happless Devil Rays over eight innings, and he has pitched like an ace ever since. Over 141 starts since August 10, 2005, Sabathia has averaged exactly seven innings per start, with a 3.02 ERA and four strikeouts for every walk. (In an utterly unheralded move, Shapiro shrewdly extended Sabathia's contract through the end of 2008, just as the 2005 season was starting.)

It was the first of many missed opportunities for the Indians and this pitching tandem. Sabathia led another impressively deep rotation in 2006, but Lee faltered into mediocrity, and a historically bad bullpen and sieve-like infield defense took the Indians out of contention in June. The club reloaded for 2007, but Lee missed the start of the season with an injury that, in retrospect, he probably never fully recovered from. After struggling with command for all of May and June, Lee fell completely off the cliff in July, posting an 8.68 ERA over his final five starts. He was, reluctantly and famously, sent to the minors at the end of July 2007.

His team, meanwhile, surged to the best record in the majors and a long-delayed trip to the playoffs. Fausto Carmona became the "second ace" Lee was expected to be, and the Indians somehow had the club's strongest and deepest rotation in recent memory, perhaps in 50 years, even without Lee. Sabathia unquestionably was the club's most valuable pitcher that season, but he faltered badly in the playoffs. He barely managed to scrape together a quality start against the Yankees in the Division Series, and he crapped the bed completely in the ALCS against the Red Sox. It may seem cruel to pin the Indians' failure to win the pennant on Sabathia, but the simple truth is that he was absolutely terrible in that series, while his teammates took three games out of five without his help. He won the Cy Young Award, but his team won only the division title.

The 2008 season was perhaps the most bizarre turn of all for the two lefites. Coming off his injury-plagued nightmare season in 2007, Lee barely made the club out of spring training to start 2008, but once the season started, he dominated opposing hitters completely. Just eight months earlier, he'd forgotten how to pitch, and now, he'd forgotten how to give up runs. As if maintaining some cosmic balance, Sabathia fell hard out of the gate, posting an astonishing 13.50 ERA over his first four starts. For the first five weeks of the season, inexplicably, Cliff Lee was the league's best starting pitcher, and the incumbent Cy Young winner Sabathia was the worst. Sabathia recovered his old form quickly, however, and against all odds, Lee maintained his new form.

Finally, for the first and only time, Cleveland had both Sabathia and Lee pitching like aces at the same time. It lasted all of ten weeks. Lee posted a 2.73 ERA from late April through the first week in July — this was actually the low-point of his season, if you can believe that — and the club went 9–4 in those games. Sabathia posted a 2.16 ERA over that same period, but the club won only seven of his 14 starts. At one point, the Indians rotation collectively threw 44 scoreless innings in a row. The lineup, however, was a different story, freezing up completely just as the rotation was surging. Throw in yet another God-awful bullpen, and the Indians' season once again was over and done by the end of June.

Two aces, finally healthy, finally pitching like two aces, for the first and only time, somehow, impossibly, was simply not enough. As a tandem, that's all Indians fans ever got out of Sabathia and Lee — one nice season in 2005, and ten dazzling but poorly timed weeks in 2008. As individuals, each guy delivered a Cy Young season, plus a couple other really good seasons. Sabathia never delivered anything in the posteason, however, and Lee never even got there. Should we blame the pitchers for not being at their best when we needed them most? Should we blame the team for not better capitalizing on their stellar seasons when they happened?

Most Indians fans will tell you, I think, that they do blame Sabathia, but Lee gets a pass. While their Cleveland careers ended with the same kind of transaction, the two men actually left Cleveland on very different terms. Sabathia was in his walk year in 2008, and he'd rebuffed contract extension talks at the start of 2007, then rebuffed them more loudly at the start of 2008. Contrary to what the cynics will tell you, most players do not, in fact, go for top dollar. In free agency, perhaps that is the rule, but most star players re-up with their hometown club before they ever reach free agency. Sabathia was offered extensions commensurate with those signed by other elite starters — Oswalt, Peavy, Zambrano, Halladay, Carpenter — and he wasn't interested.

Sabathia claimed he loved playing in Cleveland, for the Cleveland fans, within the Indians organization, with his Cleveland teammates. His friends speculated that he wanted to go back home to California. Everybody knew he liked to swing the bat, which suggested an NL destination, and he clearly relished his brief stint in Milwaukee. He made noises more than once about wanting to play with other African-Americans. And in the end, he went to the Yankees — far from his home in California, not in the National League. And for all his ample bellyaching, he isn't exactly surrounded by African-American teammates in the Bronx, either.

Sabathia and his four infielders are paid more than the entire rosters of 22 major league clubs, and Sabathia personally is guaranteed more than twice as much money in his contract than everyone in the entire Indians organization combined. In the end, for all his talk, it wasn't about anything but money. And now, just to rub salt in our wounds, Sabathia has produced for New York where he totally fell flat for Cleveland. In the 2007 postseason with the Indians, Sabathia posted an 8.80 ERA over three starts in the first two rounds. In 2009 for the Yankees, he's posted a 1.19 ERA in three starts.

Yeah. You'd be pissed, too.

Lee's exit was different. He was not in his walk year, and judging from his rebuffed requests to talk extension with the club just a few months ago, he was not determined to reach free agency. We'll never know what kind of deal Lee was truly willing to take, of course, but he wanted to talk — and he wanted to do it not just before reaching free agency, but two full years before. That generally means a guy wants to stick around, not hold out for top-dollar. That's why, while Sabathia's brilliant run in these playoff games is seen as a knife in the back, Lee's equally dominant run is more bittersweet.

This doesn't seem to happen to any other city, and it doesn't happen in any other major sport. Rank-and-file Indians fans rail at the owner for being "too cheap" to field a competitive team. They beg for Dolan to sell the team — as though some other guy with more money to blow might actually buy it. They fantasize about an owner who would pour hundreds of millions of his own dollars into the salaries of star players. They think Dick Jacobs used to spend money like that, but he didn't — in the go-go 90's, with a new taxpayer-funded stadium, Dick Jacobs always made a profit. They think the Steinbrenners and other owners spend their own money like that, but they don't — those richer clubs aren't spending down the wealth of their owners, they're just spending money from richer TV deals.

That basic imbalance in the game's economics is the reason Sabathia and Lee are starting Game One of the World Series for the Yankees and Phillies, rather than starting Games One and Two for the Indians. It is the only reason. Yes, the Indians have made a number of other missteps over the past several years, but on a basic level, Lee and Sabathia are gone because the Indians had no reasonable hope of bidding for them. The Phillies — who lured away Thome in 2003 — and the Yankees — who are the Yankees — can bid on players of this caliber once they reach free agency, and other clubs cannot.

That's why these teams have these players, and in fact, it's the only reason the Yankees made it to the World Series this year, or in any year since 1998. They've got Sabathia from the Indians, Burnett from the Marlins, Damon from the Royals, A-Rod from the Mariners, Teixeira from the Rangers, even Matsui from the Yomiuri Giants. And while the Yankees cherrypicked stars from other rosters, no other club ever got a crack at Jeter and Rivera. Yet Bud Selig wants to tell us that parity is alive and well in major league baseball. I can't imagine how he says this with a straight face. This ain't parity, this is prima nocta.

Even for those of us who understand the Indians' bind, this is ugly. They did what they had to do, that much is clear. Sabathia was determined to walk away at the end of 2008, and there was no point not cashing him in. As for Lee, the team wasn't going anywhere this season or next, with him or without him, so they sold high, eliminating the risk that he'd suffer another injury before they had another chance. You'd have trouble finding an executive anywhere in baseball to tell you that Shapiro didn't do the right thing, and many would say he's among the very best GMs in the game.

Even so, this Game One matchup is a uniquely awful thing for Indians fans to swallow, in the wake of two massively failed seasons in a row. It's still ugly. And we're still pissed.

2010 Bill James Projections: White Sox Hitters

The Cheat — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:20:08 -0000

The good people at ACTA Sports provided me a sneak preview at the 2010 Bill James projections, which will be made available the public the the 2010 Bill James Handbook (available next week).

James tends to have the most optimistic projections of any of the major forecasters, specifically for young players (read: unestablished players, i.e. Flowers)

2010 Bill James' Projections

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Gordon Beckham	155	567	93	166	44	1	21	96	59	89	10	5	.288	.360	.477
Jermaine Dye	152	571	85	149	30	1	30	92	57	123	2	1	.261	.333	.480
Tyler Flowers	67	243	40	75	17	1	12	32	32	85	2	1	.275	.353	.476
Chris Getz	99	364	49	98	16	2	4	33	36	55	20	6	.269	.340	.357
Paul Konerko	148	539	74	143	27	0	29	90	67	96	1	0	.265	.354	.477
Jayson Nix	90	247	33	60	13	0	8	27	21	49	9	3	.243	.307	.393
A.J. Pierzynski	140	527	61	149	28	1	14	62	24	64	1	1	.283	.323	.419
Scott Podsednik	110	324	45	89	17	2	3	26	29	50	17	8	.275	.340	.367
Carlos Quentin	146	542	92	147	36	2	30	97	59	77	5	2	.271	.356	.511
Alexei Ramirez	147	527	75	150	19	2	18	78	42	58	12	6	.285	.339	.431
Alex Rios	149	564	79	157	36	5	16	73	41	102	21	7	.278	.332	.445
Jim Thome	132	441	73	108	20	0	29	84	88	146	0	0	.245	.374	.488

The Sox will be in very good shape next year if they get that type of production from Quentin and Rios.

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

View full size photo »

There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Dodgers chase away old ghosts - Defeat Pedro and Phillies 2 -1

Phil Gurnee — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 00:22:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Chase Utley (26) lets fly the throwing error that turned a 1 - 0 deficit into a tie game, opening the way for even more trouble as the Dodgers comeback to win Game 2 of the National League Championship baseball series Friday, Oct. 16, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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This was what I wrote as the bottom of the eighth inning started.

Pedro Martinez outduels Vicente Padilla 1 - 0 as the Phillies take a commanding two game lead in the NLCS. For the 2nd year in a row the Phillies have won the first two games of the NLCS but this year they did it on the road. After two hard fought games the Dodgers now only have a 20% chance of winning the series according to Dodger simulator extraordinaire Xeifrank.

Never have I been happier to rewrite a recap. The eighth inning today will go down in the annuals like the 77 game three NLCS ninth inning when a simple Vic Davillio bunt single turned the game around along with the Mota fly ball off of Luzinski's glove, or the 81 World Series fourth game when Johnstone delivered a key two run home run but it was another error that allowed us to tie the game, or the ninth inning of the 2009 Division series game two.

Game one was supposed to be a pitching duel, but it turned into a slugfest, while game two was supposed to be a slugfest, which to everyone's amazement turned into a brilliant pitching duel. Pedro Martinez did not have his strikeout pitch working but everything else was working for him. For seven innings he kept the Dodgers off balance, allowing only two singles, and zero walks.

Vicente Padilla matched Pedro pitch for pitch for seven innings allowing only four hits, but one of those hits included a mistake to Ryan Howard. That mistake put the Phillies up 1 - 0 headed into the bottom of the eighth as Howard deposited it into pavilion. Padilla deserved better but the Dodgers could do nothing with Pedro who took his 37 year old arm to the mound and reminded Dodger fans once again about the biggest mistake in Dodger history. You would have thought we had paid that price already but he was back once more to extract even more revenge. However what started out as a bitter pill quickly turned into a dollop of molases, as the Dodgers finally chased the Pedro ghost away with as stirring a comeback as we've ever had considering the circumstances.

Headed into the bottom of the 8th the Phillies only had a one run cushion when they called upon their suspect bullpen to finish the job Pedro had started. Chan Ho Park who blew away Matt Kemp in a key situation last night was the first person out of the bullpen asked to hold the lead. The first batter he faced was Casey Blake who had been hitless so far in the NLCS. Casey proving that the past means nothing led off the 8th with a single, and Dodger fan hopes were raised with game two hero Division series hero Belliard striding to the plate. Juan Pierre entered as a pinch runner for Blake. Has anyone been hotter then Belliard since the Dodgers acquired him? Joe has run with the hot hand but instead of letting him swing away he had Belliard attempt to bunt. On the first pitch he fouled it off but on the 2nd pitch he got his clumsy bunt down and just like Daviilio in 77 he beat it out for a single. 1st and 2nd, no outs, down one run, Russell Martin takes his spot in the batter box. Martin tried to bunt then worked the count full only to hit a tailor made DP to 3rd base. Just like game two against the Cardinals instead of a DP to end the inning one of the best players in the game committed a costly error allowing Pierre to score and Martin to reach 1st. Belliard was out at 2nd but the Dodgers still had life and a tie game when Utely threw the ball away in an attempt to turn the DP. Dodger luck was again in play. Big Jim Thome strode up and they matched him with LHP Scott Eyre. Thome slammed a single in to right field putting 1st and 3rd with only one out. Go a head run was on 3rd base and all Furcal had to do was put the ball into play in the outfield. The Phillies countered with Ryan Madsen who was not upto the task, walking Furcal on five pitches, bringing up the Bison with the bases loaded. Kemp has delivered many times for the Dodgers which some seem to have forgotten but this time Madsen made him look foolish striking him out on four pitches. Two down, bases loaded, go a head run on 3rd base, who would you like up for the Dodgers? If you said Andre Ethier then you win the prize. The Phillies took out Madsen and brought in AJ Happ who like many other pitchers in this situation in 2009 lost the battle with the best clutch player 2009 has seen. Happ walked Andre on seven pitches and the Dodgers had a 2 - 1 lead with Big John Broxton warming up. We could have used more, but Manny grounded out to end the eighth.

The ninth wasn't nearly so dramatic. Three up , Three down and best home closer in baseball had done his job once again. With this win our series expectancy moves back to 51.9%. I'll take that as we head to Philly.

No mistake, this was a lucky win, if Utley makes the DP who knows how the inning turns out but he didn't and we ain't giving it back. This doesn't quite make up for Chase not signing with us when we drafted him but it helps.

How about Vicente Padilla???????? I've been on his case since we acquired him but it is time for me to admit I was simply wrong. That is the 2nd straight unbelievable playoff performance and this one was even more impressive against the cadre of Phillie hitters. Even I would now feel comfortable with Padilla pitching a clinching game six next Friday. Maybe even confident.

I mean how lucky are the Dodgers? They have Belliard and Padilla playing the best baseball of their careers when we needed them most, and these guys don't exactly have the pedigree of Jim Thome. Ned may be lucky but with players like Magic Marlon, Belliard, and now Padilla, he certainly has a little Lucky Charms in him and maybe just maybe we can find that pot of gold together.

Phillies vs Dodgers recap

Phillies vs Dodgers boxscore

Post Game Notes:

POWER OF PEDRO: Phillies starter Pedro Martinez pitched 7.0 innings today, marking the ninth time in his Postseason career that Martinez pitched at least 7.0 innings.....His last start His career Postseason high is 7.1ip in Game Seven of the LCS with Boston vs. New York on 10/16/03.

COMEBACK KIDS: The Dodgers recorded their third comeback victory of the 2009 Postseason (Game One, 10/7 and Two, 10/8 of NLDS) today.....The Dodgers recorded 42 comeback wins during the 2009 regular season.....Eight of those 42 comeback wins during the regular season came when trailing after seven innings.....Today was the Dodgers second comeback win of the 2009 Postseason when trailing after seven
innings (Game Two, NLDS).

SEVENTH HEAVEN: Dodger starting pitcher Vicente Padilla pitched 7.1 innings today, marking his second consecutive start with 7.0 or more innings pitched.....He joins the Phillies Cliff Lee as the only two pitchers to throw 7.0 or more innings twice this Postseason.....The Dodgers have won nine of Padilla’s last ten starts dating back to 8/27 at Colorado.

Phillies vs. Dodgers: A Family Affair

dajafi — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:32:06 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Dodgers starter Randy Wolf spent his first eight major-league seasons with the Phillies, winning 79 games for the club. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Outside of video games and computer simulations, no "rematch" is ever really that: rosters change, managers and coaches move on, and even the guys who were around for the last battle are older and different, better or worse. But the differences in the Phillies and Dodgers between October 2008 and October 2009 promise to make this series a battle between two teams that know each other about as well as non-division opponents possibly can--and in some ways, a lot better than that.

Again and again in this series, a batter will be looking at a pitcher sixty feet away with whom he played for years. Half the Dodgers' likely series rotation--Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla--were Phillies for the better part of a decade. Jim Thome, LA's biggest weapon off the bench, was the biggest star on the Phils for more than two years--and Charlie Manuel's protege and close friend through more than a decade with the Indians and Phillies. Dodger third base coach Larry Bowa was the Phillies' manager for four seasons, present at the creation for the big league careers of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Madson and others (and, as this piece in today's Inquirer notes, an admirer of his former charges). On the other side, Phils reliever Chan Ho Park first emerged into stardom in a Dodger uniform and then re-established himself as a big-time pitcher in a return engagement last season. And Jayson Werth still carries both fond memories of his early success in LA and a grudge against the organization that first misdiagnosed the wrist injury that threatened his career, and then gave up on him.

Emotional resonances aside, the most interesting question might be whether Wolf and Padilla have the advantage of familiarity over their former teammates, or vice-versa. Mostly owing to small sample size, the evidence is inconclusive: in three career starts against the Phils, Wolf is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA but a strong .243 batting average against. Both decisions came this year: a victorious six-inning, three-hit, one-run performance on May 13, and a 6.1 inning, six-run effort in a loss on June 7. Interestingly, Carlos Ruiz--who might have caught Wolf three or four times in 2006--was the Phils' best hitter in both games. Padilla, who has spent most of his post-Phillies career in the American League, lost his only career start against the Phillies in 2008.

For the fans as well as the players, though, those emotions linger. It's still strange for me to see Randy Wolf in another uniform: I remember listening to his first major league start, in summer 1999, while driving down to the Jersey Shore, watching his starts as the bright spots for dismal Phillies teams in his first two years, cheering him on through the near-misses of 2001-2006. Padilla was the briefly shining hope of the much-lamented Curt Schilling trade, an out of nowhere all-star in 2002 who flashed enormous talent over the next three seasons as well but too often faltered in the big moment before being given away after the 2005 season.

And Thome... the signing of Jim Thome, who'd been one of my favorite players since he surfaced as Cleveland's third baseman a decade earlier, put the Phillies back on the baseball map after years as something between a joke and an afterthought. For the first two years, he was as good as advertised, with a league-best 47 homers in 2003, then the second-highest season mark in franchise history, and a top-five MVP finish. Even his fadeout in 2005 proved a blessing in disguise, as it probably saved Ryan Howard from a trade we would have bemoaned for decades. And Thome's presence in the clubhouse might have been the key element in management's decision to name Charlie Manuel as Bowa's replacement to manage the club. However questionable a rationale for his hiring, Manuel has proven to be the greatest manager in Phillies history. As a 39 year-old without a defensive position, Thome wouldn't seem set for a starring role in this series. But with all that back story, it's hard to imagine he won't find a way onto the stage at a key moment.

So too with Wolf, the Game One starter, and Padilla. Strange as it'll be to root against all three, it's their presence on the Dodgers that lends this matchup an intrigue and potential drama that even a rematch for the league pennant might not otherwise boast.