SB Nation - Alex Cintron

The Baltimore Orioles All-Awful Lineup: 2000-2009

Stacey — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:51:31 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

He has the WS ring and perhaps the last laugh, but he is still the worst 2B the O's had in the 2000s. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

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I've encountered a number of articles around the web regarding the top 10 best things about this decade, be it movies, baseball players, or one-hit wonders. It's fair to say that I'm not above stealing someone else's idea, but given the that Orioles have spent the last decade in the toilet, it seems more appropriate to name the worst players of the decade, not the best. If there is one thing this Orioles fan likes to do, it's revel in failure. But if you're looking for a silver lining to the All-Awfuls, here it is: None of them came from the 2009 team and none of them will be on the team in 2010.

Catcher: Brook Fordyce

The candidates: Charles Johnson (2000), Brook Fordyce (2000-2003), Geronimo Gil (2002), Javy Lopez (2004-2006), Ramon Hernandez (2006-2008), Matt Wieters (2009)

Fordyce came to the Orioles in 2000, traded from the White Sox along with a handful of scrubs for Charles Johnson and Harold Baines. In 312 games from 2000-2003, Fordyce hit .257/.306/.379 (OPS+ 81). 2001 was especially awful for Fordyce as he hit just .209/.268/.322 in 95 games. Whatever the Orioles had in mind for Fordyce. it didn't work out. He was a complete failure as both offensively and defensively as he only managed to catch 58 base stealers out of 307 (18.8%) as an Oriole.

First Base: Rafael Palmeiro

The candidates: Will Clark (2000), Jeff Conine (2000-2003), Rafael Palmeiro (2004-2005), Kevin Millar (2006-2008), Aubrey Huff (2007-2009)

The numbers on the field may not back this up, but the only possible answer is Rafael Palmeiro. His positive steroid test in 2005, the subsequent denials and throwing of a fellow player under the bus, the ear plugs to drown out the boos, and his quiet departure from the team all help make the decision easy. Straight numbers-wise, the award probably goes to Aubrey Huff. He wasn't good in 2009 and league average in 2007 while splitting time at first with Kevin Millar. Although honestly, none of them was great shakes, so Palmeiro wins for emotional abuse of the fans.

Second Base: Jerry Hairston

The candidates: Delino DeShields (2000), Jerry Hairston (2001-2004), Brian Roberts (2003-2009)

This award has to go to Jerry Hairston. We all know the value of Brian Roberts, and Delino DeShields had a very solid 2000 at 2B. Hairston could never quite take advantage of his chances. He went from getting the majority of the playing time at 2B in 2001 and 2002 to losing time to Brian Roberts to being used as a utility man to being traded for Sammy Sosa. Overall he played 474 games for the Orioles in this decade with an OPS+ of 89.

Third Base: Cal Ripken

Candidates: Cal Ripken (2000-2001), Tony Batista (2002-2003), Melvin Mora (2004-2009)

Ok so here's the thing. Both Cal Ripken and Tony Batista were pretty lousy in their two year spans. I want to give the Awful Award to Tony Batista, I really do. But I don't think that I can. Cal Ripken was straight up bad in 2000 and 2001. As bad as Batista was, Cal was worse. From 2000-2001, he hit .246/.290/.347 with 29 HR and 32 2B. Batista hit .239/.290/.425 with 57 HR and 56 2B. The power is really the only difference, but it's enough to give Cal the edge in the awards voting. Argue with me if you like, but know that I feel bad enough about it already.

Shortstop: The Five Headed Monster

Candidates: Mike Bordick (2000-2002), Deivi Cruz (2003), Miguel Tejada (2004-2007), Brandon Fahey/Juan Castro/Alex Cintron/Luis Hernandez/Freddie Bynum (2008), Cesar Izturis (2009)

Deivi Cruz had this award all but locked up until 2008 rolled around. In 152 games in 2003 he hit a lousy .250/.269/.378 with 14 HR and 13 BB, a dark spot at SS between Bordick and Tejada. But after the trade of Tejada, the Five Headed Monster set out to prove that no matter how bad one player can play a position, five guys can play even worse. In 2008 they hit a combined .217/.257/.277 with 3 HR and 18 2B. Well done, guys, you put together one of the worse offensive seasons at SS in history.

Outfield: Jay Payton, Luis Matos, and Sammy Sosa

Candidates: Brady Anderson (2000-2001), Jeff Conine (2000-2003, 2006), B.J. Surhoff (2000, 2003-2005), Albert Belle (2000), Chris Richard (2000), Melvin Mora (2001-2003), Chris Singleton (2002), Gary Matthews Jr. (2002-2003), Jay Gibbons (2001-2007), Luis Matos (2001-2006), Larry Bigbie (2001-2005), David Newhan (2004-2006), Sammy Sosa (2005), Nick Markakis (2006-2009), Corey Patterson (2006-2007), Jay Payton (2007-2008), Adam Jones (2008-2009), Luke Scott (2008-2009), Nolan Reimold (2009), Felix Pie (2009)

The Orioles outfield has pretty much been a hot mess this entire decade. If I ever get the urge in 2010 to complain about Reimold, Jones, Markakis, or Pie, someone please direct me to this list. I mean, look at some of those names. Minus the oldest names and the newest names, it's basically a list of players I can't stand. I immediately wanted to crown Jay Gibbons the winner , but honestly he wasn't the worst, not by a long shot. That honor goes to the other Jay, Jay Payton. From 2007-2008, Jay Payton played in 258 games for the Orioles in the outfield, second only to Nick Markakis' 318 games. Over the two year span he hit .250/.292/.363 with an OPS+ of 72. That combined with his chronic whining and the time he picked a fight with Melvin Mora in the dugout give him the title of worst Oriole outfielder of the 2000s. Congrats, Jay Pay!

Much like his BFF Cal, Brady Anderson's last two years as an Oriole were nothing be proud of. Unlike Cal, there have been enough lousy outfielders since then that Brady escaped this list. Luis Matos and Sammy Sosa, come on down! From 2000-2006 the injury prone Matos played in 494 games for the Orioles with a robust line of .256/.313/.375. One decent season afforded him 2.5 more years of horridness before the Orioles finally got rid of him. Sosa only spent one year (and not even really that) as an Oriole, but it was one of the more pathetic seasons I can recall. Anyone wondering why he was obtained for the bargain price of Jerry Hairston and Mike Fontenot found out why after seeing him play. He missed a number of games due to injury, the games he played were awful, and by all accounts he stirred up quite a bit of strife in the clubhouse with Miguel Tejada. Sosa was MIA for about the last month of the season, and one of my favorite stories from the Baltimore Sun of the whole year was about how the Orioles couldn't find Sammy Sosa.

Hell of a lineup. We Orioles fans have had it rough this decade. I think we're finally due for some happiness, don't you?

(Note: I tried to include pitching in this but it was just too daunting of a task. Perhaps some other time.)

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:08:26 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun (8), Mike Cameron and Frank Catalanotto (27) celebrate after the Brewers' 5-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals in a baseball game Wednesday, July 8, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while finding a better place to propose.

Today, the Brewers have a different kind of proposal for Manny Parra: something like, "Would you please try not to make us wish we'd left you in AAA?" Parra makes his return in a few hours, and the Brewers are hoping he'll be more like the pitcher they saw in AAA (sub-3 ERA) than the one they sent down (13.50 ERA, allowed opponents to hit .408/.478/.694 in his last five starts). To make room on the roster for him, the team designated Chris Narveson for assignment. Narveson will almost certainly clear waivers and accept an assignment to AAA, but the Brewers wouldn't be much worse off if he didn't. (Also noted in FanShot.)

The Brewers will also have bench coach Willie Randolph back for today's game. Randolph was suspended for a game for coming onto the field to argue his ejection in Tuesday's game. Coaches are not allowed to do that, even if Bill Hohn's mustache is blocking their view. (Also noted in FanShot.)

They're also one day closer to having Dave Bush back. Bush is scheduled to throw 3-4 innings in a rehab start Friday for the Timber Rattlers. If all goes well, he's still scheduled to return to the big leagues on July 20.

Is Prince Fielder MLB's fastest big man? The Brewers would have squandered three bases loaded opportunities last night if Fielder hadn't legged out an infield single in the eighth. For his part, Fielder called the performance "panic speed."

As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, we'll stop for a moment each day to take a look at the rumors and notes:

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that, along with Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays are also considering trading outfielder Alex Rios, who has over $60 million remaining on a contract that runs through 2014. Assuming the Brewers can afford him, he'd be a nice long term replacement for Mike Cameron.
Mark Bowman of MLB.com thinks the Braves' demands for Javier Vazquez will be similar to the Indians' asking price for CC Sabathia last season. He argues that Vazquez is pitching better than Sabathia was at the time of the deal, and is under contract for an extra year.
Mark Mulder's agent says he'll be ready to audition for scouts in a week to ten days, and thinks he can quickly return to big league form.

And in the minors:

Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at the defensive stats for some college shortstops who were drafted to the big leagues over the last two seasons. 2009 Brewer draftee Josh Prince ranked right around average, but 2008 draftee Michael Marseco, all 130 lbs of him, was 17 runs above average defensively in college.
Minor league attendance is holding steady across the country, but the Midwest League is up 2.5% through June, likely due to a couple of new parks and increased interest in the Timber Rattlers. The Pioneer League was also up 18% in June, but that only covers about a week's worth of games.

Continuing Bullet Pointpalooza with a look at Power Rankings:

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers three spots to 17th, but they're still the highest ranked team in the Central.
MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers from #7 to #11.

Normally I present the Power Rankings without comment, but the Brewer note in the FanHouse ranking caught my eye:

If the Brewers don't find someone to back Yovani Gallardo soon, they might find themselves behind both the Cardinals and the suddenly surging Cubbies in the standings.

The "suddenly surging" Cubbies, huh? Yes, the Cubs did just take three of four from the Brewers at home. If you remove that series, though, they're 4-9 since June 22 and 10-15 since June 9. That doesn't sound like "surging" to me.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Released B.J. Ryan, but will still have to pay him over $10 million over this season and next.
Mariners: Are expected to sign Alex Cintron to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Designated injured outfielder Jonathan Van Every for assignment.
White Sox: Designated reliever Jimmy Gobble for assignment.

Ballot box stuffing has been an accepted practice for years, but do the teams themselves cheat to give their players an edge in the Final Vote? Hall of Fame writer Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News seems to have caught the Phillies in the act:

WHAT I WOULD like to do right now is walk into the media dining room and kick out the plugs on three computers. Fans are voting for the final roster spot for the All-Star game and the Phillies are in an all-out campaign to get Shane Victorino on the team.

The Phillies have three young men in the dining room sitting at laptops punching in Victorino’s name every few seconds. And they are doing it non-stop, nearly around the clock. So when Victorino wins you’ll know it wasn’t a fan vote at all.

The Man v. Machine argument continues today as well. Over at Beyond the Box Score, tbsmkdn makes the case for human umpires, arguing that manager arguments with umpires are one of the best parts of the game. I don't think we're watching the same game.

Meanwhile, ESPN's coverage of the Home Run Derby will feature Ball Track, a system designed to tell you immediately if a ball will be a home run, if waiting a few seconds to see where it lands takes up too much of your time.

Oh, and I can't decide on today's bigger anniversary: the non-conclusion of a meaningless exhibition game in 2002 or Tyler Houston's three home run game in 2000. So I'll give you both.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 20 May 2009 14:07:23 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Corey Hart, freshly shaved head and all, celebrates Tuesday's victory while J.J. Hardy maintains a safe distance.

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Some things to read while coming out of your shell.

The main topic of conversation this morning continues to be replacing Rickie Weeks. Ray Durham has been in touch, and Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times thinks Mark DeRosa could be a fit (thanks to 80Badger for the link), but Doug Melvin is focusing on internal options, and as of this writing, 92% of voters in our poll agree with that decision.

Meanwhile, Hernan Iribarren has been called up to fill Weeks' spot on the roster (Also noted in FanShot). Iribarren, who is left handed, did not play last night and likely will not play tonight against lefty Wandy Rodriguez, but could be considered to start on Thursday.

Speaking of Wandy Rodriguez, both Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle and Crawfish Boxes are excited to see his matchup with Yovani Gallardo tonight. Gallardo, meanwhile, is just trying to stay sharp after what was basically a missed turn in the rotation on Friday.

After a decade of living in obscurity, Mark DiFelice is suddenly the center of attention. Jeff Passan of Yahoo had a story on him earlier this week, and now he's also profiled in Hardball Cooperative and The Madison Capital Times. Of course, all this attention had to come this week, when DiFelice allowed an earned run for just the second time in 16 appearances.

Speaking of obscurity, Dave Bush is moving towards an obscure record of his own pretty quickly. Bush hit two Astros batters last night to bring his Brewer career total to 46, just three shy of Jamey Wright's franchise record. Bush's seven plunks in 2009 lead the National League. He only hit ten batters in all of 2008.

Mike Hampton started last night's game for the Astros, but left early with a left thumb lasceration. I haven't seen anything on how long he'll be out.

Jeremy Jeffress, the #3 prospect and top pitcher in our Community Prospect Rankings, has been demoted to Brevard County after posting a 15.03 ERA and walking 21 hitters in 11.1 innings over his last four starts. Former top pitching prospect Mike Jones has been promoted to Huntsville to take his place (Also noted in FanShot).

Power rankings, anyone?

The National Post has moved the Brewers from fourth to second in their NL power rankings.
Goatriders of the Apocalypse has moved the Brewers from fourth to first in their NL Central rankings.

Around the league:

Nationals: Placed Elijah Dukes on the DL with a hamstring strain and designated Alex Cintron for assignment.
Reds: Placed reliever Nick Masset on the DL with a strained oblique.

Is 2009 a renaissance for aging catchers? Plunk Everyone noticed that catchers 35 years old or older are catching 17.3% of games this season, the second highest total since 1960.

Take a deep breath, everyone. Stephen Strasburg, who is almost certain to be the #1 pick in June's draft and is dominating college hitters at San Diego State, is not expected to make his MLB debut this season. I've heard all the hype about him being the "greatest prospect ever" and whatnot, but seriously, let's let this guy make his pro debut before we slot him into the Nationals' rotation.

Giants pitcher Noah Lowry's long and winding road back to the big leagues continues. Lowry is scheduled for surgery to have a rib removed to address thoracic outlet syndrome. His agent, meanwhile, has called the Giants out for failing to correctly diagnose Lowry's ailment the first time.

The road is just as long and winding, but maybe a little darker, for Khalil Greene. Greene is getting some extra time off to address an anxiety issue. Greene has admitted to "punishing himself physically," and others have expressed concern about the severity of the punishment. Greene missed a fair portion of last season after breaking his hand punching an equipment trunk.

Oh, and no matter what I do, I never seem to get a cheering section quite like Tigers outfielder Clete Thomas.

Drink up.

Nationals' Fans Dressed As Empty Blue Seats Watch Washington's 8-5 Loss To Pittsburgh.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 20 May 2009 02:40:07 -0000

"We'll get the attendance we deserve." - Stan Kasten

Tonight's Attendance: 18, 579

HEADLINES:

• Not Even Shairon Martis Can Stop This.

The Washington Nationals' 22-year-old right-hander, Shairon Martis, put his (5-0) record on the line tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Nationals Park in a desperate attempt to help the Nationals stop their current 6-game losing streak.

After surrendering 3 runs on two doubles, two walks and single, (not in that order), in the first, Martis gave up a two-run HR to Andy LaRoche in the third on a 1-0 fastball inside that ended up way back in left for a 5-0 Pirates' lead after three. Martis then retired the next nine batters he faced as the Nationals slowly chipped away at the 5-run lead. Adam Du...SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!! Adam Dunn's solo shot in the fourth gets DC on the board, and then, after Martis' final inning, in the bottom of the sixth, Willie Harris, Anderson Hernandez and Wil Nieves single in succession to drive in three straight runs and tie it at 5-5 after six.

Martis' Line:

Martis, Shairon - 6.0 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K's, 1 HR, 4.53 ERA, 85 pitches, 55 strikes, 5 GO, 11 FO.

• Adam Dunn Would Rather Walk.

Bottom of the fourth, Adam Dunn takes a curve inside for a ball and takes a called strike on the inside corner and then Adam Du...SHAKE N BAKE!!! (ok, I'll stop), Adam Dun..SHAKE N BAKE!!! takes a swing at a fastball on the outside edge from Jeff Karstens, really reaches out for it and lifts it to left center and GONE, goodbye, 5-1 Pirates in the fourth. Dunn walks after Ryan Zimmerman bunts his way on in the sixth, and is later forced out at second. After a two-out walk to Ryan Zimmerman in the seventh, Dunn takes a swing at an 0-1 slider, and then is unintentionally, but effectively, walked. Then in the ninth, with the game tied at 5-5, after a wild pitch from Pirates' reliever Sean Burnett scores Nick Johnson to tie it, Adam Dunn-K strikes out swinging over curve in under his hands. So that's a solo HR and two walks and a K with runners on for him...

• Groundhog Day For The DC Bullpen.

R0n Vill0.00ne - 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K, 0.00 ERA.

Joe Beimel - 2.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K's, 5.63 ERA.

The Nationals rally to tie it at 5-5 in the bottom of the ninth, and Joe Beimel comes back out for his second inning of work...Ramon Vazquez leads off with a single, and takes second on a sac bunt by Nyjer Morgan. Freddy Sanchez gets the intentionals to bring up lefty Nate McLouth against DC lefty Joe Beimel, Lefty vs Lefty. McLouth flies out. Two down. Adam LaRoche doubles in two runs. 7-5. Brandon Moss hits an RBI single, 8-5 Pirates. Nationals lose.

Pirates win, 8-5 Final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Didn't, Check Out Pirates/Nationals GameThread...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 11-27.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals. Game 38 of 162.

Nyjer Morgan starts the game with a double to right field off of DC righty Shairon Martis. Freddy Sanchez punches a liner to right, blooping over second with Morgan running and scoring the game’s first run, 1-0 Pirates. Adam Dunn tracks a fly ball from Nate McLouth into the corner and leaps at the wall to make the catch. Adam LaRoche draws a walk to put two on for Brandon Moss. Martis gets a bender by Wil Nieves for a wild pitch that advances both runners. Moss sends one to short center that falls in front of Willie Harris and bounces by Harris and into center for a two-run double. 3-0 Pirates. Andy LaRoche pops up over the infield. Jason Jaramillo walks with two down. Jack Wilson pops out to Zimmerman, 3-0 Pirates after a half...Cristian Guzman bounces a grounder to Sanchez at second. NIck Johnson lines right into Nyjer Morgan’s glove in left. Ryan Zimmerman’s grounder rolls up the mound and into Karsten’s glove, the pitcher tosses to first to complete a 1-2-3 first.

Karstens gets some wood on a fastball but grounds out to short. Willie Harris is on top of Nyjer Morgan’s liner to center. Martis gets Freddy Sanchez swinging over an offspeed pitch, inside and sinking, to end a quick top of the second...Adam Dunn takes a called strike three on a circus curve for the first out of the DC second. Josh Willingham takes the bender and lines a fastball right at Nyjer Morgan. Willie Harris doesn’t like what Karstens throwing, the Ump doesn’t either, two-out walk. Harris steals second with Anderson Hernandez up, but Hernandez flies to Moss in right to end the second.

Nate McLouth singles to start the third, moves to second on a wild pitch and to third on a groundout by Adam LaRoche. Martis throws a change that drops off the edge of the plate and gets Brandon Moss chasing for strike three. Martis throws a high fastball to Andy LaRoche, he destroys it for a two-run blast to left and a 5-0 Pirates’ lead. Ryan Zimmerman reaches over the rail and catches a pop fly from Jason Jaramillo, before it can get in the stands, three down...Wil Nieves rips a single to left and moves to second on Shairon Martis’ sac bunt to first. Cristian Guzman grounds out to second. Nick Johnson takes a fastball on the knee and walks it off on the way to first. Ryan Zimmerman grounds hard to short for the final out on a force at second.

Martis gets a fly ball to right from Jack Wilson. Martis gets a grounder from the pitcher for a quick out. Morgan grounds back to the mound, Martis stabs it and throws to first...Adam Du...SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!! Line drive to left center and GONE!! Solo shot to start the Nationals’ fourth. 5-1 Pirates. Josh Willingham flies out. Willie Harris almost gets one by Adam LaRoche, who dives and tosses to first where Karstens covers. Anderson Hernandez singles to center. Nieves drives a high fastball to right for Brandon Moss.

Anderson Hernandez sprints back into center and catches a fly ball from Freddy Sanchez. Nate McLouth flies into the right field corner, Dunn gets under it. Adam LaRoche grounds out to Anderson “Elvis” Hernandez at second, 5-1 Pirates in the fifth...Martis grounds weakly to third. Guzman rolls a grounder to first. Nick “Two-Spot” Johnson pops out behind third to end the fifth.

Two fly balls to center for Willie Harris and a line drive to Willingham as Shairon Martis gets Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo in order in the sixth...Ryan Zimmerman pushes a pop-bunt toward third and beats the throw. Adam Dunn gets a free pass from Karstens to bring up the Hammer. Freddy Sanchez fields Willingham’s grounder two-steps to second and throws to first for the DP. Full-count fastball to Willie Harris and he drives it through second and into center to score Zimmerman from third, 5-2 Pirates. Willie Harris is running when Anderson Hernandez rips a line drive to right, and into the corner for an RBI triple!!! 5-3 Pittsburgh. Wil Nieves goes to a full count on what should be ball four, and responds by lifting a bloop single to center to score Elvis from third, 5-4 Pirates. Ronnie Belliard takes a big swing at a bender and comes up empty, strike three to end the sixth.

Ron Villone starts the seventh on the hill. Villone knocks a grounder down with his bare hand and throws to first. Pinch hitter Craig Monroe flies to short right, and Adam Dunn charges in to make the grab. Nyjer Morgan drops a bunt, Nick Johnson tosses to Anderson Hernandez covering and it’s a 1-2-3 seventh for Villone...Cristian Guzman takes a leadoff walk from Pirates’ reliever Evan Meek, (only his second BB this year, and the first was last night). Nick Johnson grounds into the Pirates’ double play machine, Sanchez to Wilson to LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman walks with two down, and the Big Donkey’s going to get a shot. Dunn walks, two on for Willingham. The Hammer flies out to center.

Ron Villone throws a high full-count fastball that Freddy Sanchez chases. Pop up to short right and the Big Donkey charges in to catch out number two off Nate McLouth’s bat. Villone gets a grounder to first from Adam LaRoche to end the Pirates’ eighth...Sean Burnett takes over for Meek on the mound. Willie Harris takes fastball on the elbow and takes his base. Anderson Hernandez bunts Harris over to second. Wil Nieves grounds to first, Harris to third. Austin Kearns flies all the way to the warning track in right where it falls into Nyjer Morgan’s glove. 5-4 Pirates after eight.

“Dirty” Joe Beimel gets a fly ball out to left from Brandon Moss. Beimel walks Andy LaRoche with one down. Jason Jaramillo pops out to Guzman for out No.2. Jack Wilson takes strike three to end the Pirates’ ninth...Cristian Guzman flies to right on the first pitch. Nick Johnson is inches away from a game-tying HR, but he settles for triple off the wall in left center. Johnson on third. WP from Sean Burnett, WITH DUNN UP, JOHNSON SCORES FROM THIRD!! 5-5 ballgame!!!! Dunn works the count full, and swings over a curve to K. Willingham walks. Burnett out for Tom Gorzelanny vs Willie Harris, Lefty vs Lefty. Harris stares a two-strike curve all the way in...it’s Extras.

Beimel back in the tenth. Ramon Vazquez leads off with a single to right. Nyjer Morgan gets knocked down on his first bunt attempt, but bravely gets it down, Vazquez to second. Freddy Sanchez gets the intentionals. Nate McLouth flies out to center, Vazquez takes third. Adam LaRoche doubles over second, two runs score, 7-5 Pirates. Brandon Moss singles to center, 8-5 Pirates. Gorzelanny K’s trying...Anderson “Elvis” Hernandez flies out to McLouth in center. Wil Nieves K’s swinging after a high heater. Alex Cintron flies out to left. Pirates win, 8-5 final.

Nationals now 11-27.

Washington Nationals' '07 1st Round Pick Ross Detwiler Learns What It's Like To Be A DC Starter.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 19 May 2009 03:30:46 -0000

HEADLINES:

DC Bullpen Can't Hold Detwiler's Lead...

In spite of having surrendered a 3-run HR to the Pirates' left fielder Craig Monroe in the third, at the end of the fifth inning, DC left-hander Ross Detwiler, in the first start of his major league career, had a W lined up after the Nationals rallied for 5 in the home half of the inning to take a two-run lead at 5-3...a lead which didn't last through the top of the sixth...

Detwiler's Line:

Detwiler, Ross - 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 6 K's, 0 BB, 1 HR, 0 WP, 84 pitches, 61 strikes.

The first thing that you notice with Ross Detwiler is that he's actually throwing strikes, the fastball is in the low-90's, but he hides the ball behind his body up until he releases it, and he has a nice change early which he drops off the outside to right-handers, a sinking fastball, and later a few benders, and over 5.0 IP, Detwiler's in trouble just twice. The first time it's Cristian Guzman's fault, as the DC shortstop's two errors put two on with two outs in the first inning, a jam which Detwiler works through, and the second when a single and HBP start the third, and Detwiler's not as lucky...

...Detwiler throws two fastballs around 90 mph on the outside edge to Craig Monroe, and the next pitch comes in at 82, a change that sinks in over the outside of the plate onto Monroe's bat and out to deeeeep center and just over the glove of the leaping Willie Harris, and over the wall for a 3-0 Pirates' lead.

Nothing comes of Jack Wilson's double off Detwiler in the fourth, and Detwiler strikes out his 5th and 6th batters in the 5th before getting a liner from Monroe to fellow DC first rounder Ryan Zimmerman, who closes his glove on the Pirates' fifth and then hits the second of two HR's in the Nationals' half, as Nick Nick Johnson Johnson, and Ryan Zimmer--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!... both go deep off Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf and give Washington a two-run lead at 5-3 after five.

The Nationals turn the lead over to...

The DC Bullpen:

Garrett Mock (L, 0-2) - 0.1 IP, 1 H, 3 runs, 3 ER, 1 BB, 15 pitches, 7 strikes.

Jesus "Everyday" Colome - 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 20 pitches, 12 strikes.

Kip Wells - 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K's, 31 pitches, 16 strikes.

Joe Beimel - 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 pitches, 3 strikes.

Joel Hanrahan - 1.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K's, 32 pitches? 17 strikes.

11 Hits and 7 Runs Should...Be...ENOUGH!!!!

Cristian Guzman is hitting .385 after going 2 for 4 with a run scored and a walk. Nick "Two-Spot" Johnson goes 1 for 2 with a HR, 3 RBI's and 3 walks. Ryan Zimmerman 2 for 5 with a run scored, 1 RBI and a .358 AVG...Don't know what's wrong with Dunn recently, 2 for his last 15 heading into tonight, Dunn went 0 for 3 with a sac fly RBI, but he hasn't hit a HR since May 10th when he hit 2 in Arizona...Do you think Dunn just realized he signed with a non-playoff team?

The Nationals have 11 hits, 7 runs, but commit 4 ER's and surrender 12 hits and 12 runs in another loss, the 26th of 35 in fact...

Miss Detwiler's First Start? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

Pirates win, 12-7 final.

Nationals now 11-26.

Pittsburgh Pirates At Washington Nationals. Game 37 of 162.

The first pitch of Ross Detwiler’s first start is a strike on the inside corner to Delwyn Young. Detwiler’s first K of the day comes on an 81mph change outside. Freddy Sanchez rolls one out to Cristian Guzman at short, and it’s bounces out of Guzman’s glove for an early E. Nate McLouth grounds to second, Anderson “Elvis” Hernandez takes the force at second. Another grounder to Guzman from Craig Monroe, another error for Guzman. Detwiler pops up Adam LaRoche, and he’s got a scoreless frame...The first pitch from Ross Ohlendorf to Cristian Guzman bounces over the wall in left for a ground rule double to start the frame. Nick Johnson uses his Discerning Eye to walk on a full count pitch inside. Ryan Zimmerman hits one to short to second to first, the tenth DP of the season for Zimmerman. Adam Dunn sorta holds up on a 3-2 pitch in the dirt and the Hammer gets a two-out chance with two on. Nate McLouth sidles over to the right and catches the final out of the first off of Josh Willingham’s bat.

Detwiler gets a short fly to right from Pirates’ catcher Robinzon Diaz for Adam Dunn to handle for the first out of the second. Andy LaRoche pops up behind short, and Guzman closes his glove on it. Jack Wilson beats out a grounder to second. Detwiler gets a groundball from Ohlendorf to end the top of the frame...Willie Harris grounds to first, LaRoche to the pitcher covering for the first out. Anderson Hernandez grounds to third, LaRoche to LaRoche, awww...Josh Bard flies out to right to end the second.

Ross Detwiler paints the outside corner with a low 90’s heater to get Delwyn Young swinging. Freddy Sanchez singles up the middle on a hanging change. Detwiler’s got Sanchez picked, but Nick Johnson misses the throw from the pitcher. Sanchez to second. Detwiler comes up and way too far inside on Nate McLouth and hits him in the arm. Willie Harris tracks Craig Monroe’s fly to deep center and jumps at the wall, only to come up empty and have it sneak over for a 3-run blast. 3-0 Pirates. Detwiler gets Adam La Roche staring a sinking fastball onto the outside edge. Robinzon Diaz lines right into Detwiler’s follow through and his glove...Detwiler chops one to the mound but can’t beat it out. Cristian Guzman lifts a single over second. Guzman gets nailed stealing second, for his third error of the game. (Not really.) Nick Johnson pops out to Craig “Floating Homer” Monroe for out No.3...

Adam Dunn gets under a fly ball from Andy LaRoche and makes it look easy. Jack Wilson’s hustling out of the box on a line drive to left, and he’s standing on second when Willingham’s throw comes in. Ross Ohlendorf swings a foot over strike three for the second out of the frame. Delwyn Young pops out to the infield to end the top of the fourth, Detwiler!!!...Jack Wilson’s almost in left field when he picks up Zimmerman’s grounder and fires all the way to first, IN TIME to beat Zim. Adam Dunn hits one a mile high but only as far as the curly-W in the center field grass. Ohlendorf hits the outside corner for a called strike three on Josh Willingham to end the fourth.

Ross Detwiler throws a high two-strike fastball that Freddy Sanchez can’t take, called strike three. Nate McLouth swings over a nasty two-strike change inside. Craig Monroe lines to Zim, as Detwiler makes quick work of the Pirates in the fifth...Willie Harris, aka TAWH, rips a fly ball to right that goes in and out of Delwyn Young’s glove for a double. Anderson Hernandez flies to right, Harris takes third. Josh Bard, almost got the first, but it goes fould, and then he gets all of the second, doubling off the wall to score Harris, 3-1 Pirates. Alex Cintron hits for Detwiler, lining out to left for the second out. The Guzzzz? Walks the easy way, on four straight, for the first time this season. Nick Nick Johnson Johnson, all the way to left and no doubt about it, three-run blast, 4-3 DC. Ohlendorf comes inside and soft to Ryan Zimmer-THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! SOLO SHOT over the Red Porch seats!! 5-3 Nationals. Adam Dunn flies out to end it.

Garrett Mock walks the first batter he sees, Adam LaRoche. Mock hits the second batter he sees, Robinzon Diaz. Sac bunt by Adam’s brother and Jack Wilson lines a 1-2 pitch to left, two runs score, 5-5 ballgame. Jesus Colome on for Mock. Brandon Moss hits for Ohlendorf. Moss doubles to left, Wilson scores, 6-5 Pirates. Delwyn Young sneaks a dribbler under Anderson Hernandez at second, Moss scores, 7-5 Pittsburgh. Freddy Sanchez flies out to Adam Dunn. Nate McLouth doubles with two down, Delwyn Young scores, 8-5 Pirates. Craig Monroe flies out, finally...Pirates’ reliever Jess Sanchez gets a grounder from Willingham for the first out of the DC sixth, and a grounder from Willie Harris for the second. Anderson Hernandez singles through second. Josh Bard pops out to McLouth to end the sixth.

Josh Willingham catches a fly ball from Adam LaRoche close to the line in left. Kip Wells on the hill for DC. One-out walk from Wells for Robinzon Diaz. Wells blows Andy LaRoche away with a sinking fastball over his bat inside. Jack Wilson gets knocked down by a fastball inside, and Bard throws out Robinzon Diaz trying to steal second...Ronnie Belliard K’s swinging. Cristian Guzman grounds weakly to second. “Two-Spot” Johnson uses his Discerning Eye to draw a walk. Ryan Zimmerman lines a double to left center, Johnson to third. Jesse Sanchez gets chased. Tom Gorzelanny vs Dunn. Lefty vs Lefty. Dunn K’s swinging to end the seventh.

Jack Wilson gets a hanger from Kip Wells and laces it to left, off the wall and by Willingham for a triple. Eric Hinske grounds to first, Nick Johnson handles it. Chopper up the middle by Delwyn Young, Wilson scores, 9-5 Pirates. Wells out. Joe Beimel vs Nate McLouth. Lefty vs Lefty. McLouth grounds out to second....Old Man John Grabow vs Willingham to start the Nationals’ eighth. Hammer singles through short. Willie Harris grounds to first, LaRoche gets the force at second. Pinch hitter Austin Kearns K’s. Josh Bard drives Willie Harris in with a double into the left field corner, 9-6 Pittsburgh. Ronnie Belliard works a walk. Cristian Guzman grounds into a force at second to end the frame.

Joel Hanrahan starts the ninth. Craig Monroe swings through a serious two-strike heater. Adam LaRoche walks with one down in the ninth. Wild pitch moves LaRoche to second. Robinzon Diaz grounds back to the mound, Hanrahan knocks it down and throws to first. Andy LaRoche grounds to third, and it hops over Zim’s glove, RBI single, 10-6. Jack Wilson walks. Ramon Vazquez doubles to right, two runs score, 12-6 Pirates. Hanrahan strikes someone out now...blah, blah, blah...Matt Capps up to end it. Nick Johnson + Discerning Eye = Leadoff walk. Johnson moves up on a passed ball. Ryan Zimmerman flies out to right. Passed ball with Dunn up, Johnson moves to third. Adam Dunn flies out to Delwyn Young in right, who falls as he catches it. Johnson scores. 12-7. Josh Willingham doubles. Willie Harris pops out to the infield. 12-7 final.

Nationals now 11-26.

Phillies at Nationals: May 15-17 (4 games)

Matt Swartz — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:07:34 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

The Phillies hope to keep Ryan Zimmerman from starting a new hitting streak this weekend. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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The Philadelphia Phillies (16-16) will head to Washington meet President Barack Obama (1-0) and then play four games against the Washington Nationals (11-21) in three days. The Nationals have not been quite as bad as their record this year, and their offense has actually been quite good. Their bullpen has been terrible and their starting pitching has beeen bad, too, which explains their terrible record. The Phillies still should be able to do well against them this weekend. They face a couple of lefties to start the series, but neither are spectacular, and the Phillies should be able to handle them well this time. That is, if John Lannan doesn't kill any more of our players. After putting Chase Utley on the DL with a HBP in 2007 and bunting a ball that caused Cole Hamels to sprain his ankle hard enough to get pulled in the 5th and to miss a start after that, the Phillies should have armed guards against John Lannan. Lannan has not been great this year. He has managed an ERA of 3.89, but he has 20 K and 15 BB in 39.1 IP this year. He has succeeded on the back of a 58% groundball rate. His start last week against the Diamondbacks seemed like an early Kyle Kendrick start with 0 runs in 6 IP, with a couple double plays. Lannan will face up against Joe Blanton. Blanton is coming off a frustrating start where he surrendered six runs in eight innings against the Braves. He has struggled with the longball this year, despite getting a decent amount of strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground.

Game one Saturday will put Scott Olsen against Brett Myers. Olsen has a 7.00 ERA this year, but he has not been quite that bad. He probably should have an ERA around 5. He had a very effective start against the Phillies a couple weeks ago, going 5.2 and surrendered just a run thanks to 10 groundballs and 6 strikeouts out of 24 batters faced. Olsen struggles a lot against RHB, so hopefully Werth has a good game and Rollins and Victorino ought to wake up. Brett Myers is coming off a no decision against the Braves in which he surrendered only 1 run in 6 innings, but only struck out 3. He struck out only 1 in 5.1 IP the start beforehand as well, as his K/9 falls. Myers has struggled, surrendering eight homeruns in the first four games he pitched this year, which made his last two starts seem better. However, a few bad pitches does not change the fact that he was striking guys out then. If he could both strike guys out and concentrate enough to avoid throwing meatballs over the middle of the plate, how good could Myers be? Let's hope we catch a glimpse this Saturday afternoon.

Game two on Saturday should be a fun one, as the Phillies send J.A. Happ on the mound to audition for either Jamie Moyer or Chan Ho Park's rotation spot (whichever frees up first), and Happ should expect lots of run support as the somehow lucky righty Daniel Cabrera and his 0.46 K/BB rate (yes, you read that rate) will pitch to the Phillies mashing lefties on Saturday night. Cabrera has kept his rotation spot thanks to flyballs not leaving the yard at a normal rate. That's not his credit. He's leaving the balls up there and the hitters aren't hitting them far enough. Cabrera apparently is incredibly talented but has not put it together.

Sunday will put Chan Ho Park in line to try to get his third straight excellent start. He'll face Jordan Zimmerman, who has been unlucky this year. Zimmerman has struck out 26 and walked 8 in 29 innings to start his career. He has only surrendered 29 flyballs out of 85 balls in play (34%), but 5 of those have left the yard. Zimmerman is bound to pick up some luck soon enough, so Sunday could be difficult if he does.

The series should be a pretty intense one, as the two teams will play 4 games in 46 hours, amounting to around 40% of their waking hours during that time span.

EDIT: Andrew Carpenter will start in J.A. Happ's spot against Daniel Cabrera and night game of Saturday's doubleheader. I've added a brief profile of his below. Miguel Cairo has been designated for assignment (finally!).

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton vs John Lannan
Saturday, 1:05-- Brett Myers vs Scott Olsen
Saturday, 7:05-- (EDIT) ANDREW CARPENTER vs Daniel Cabrera
Sunday, 1:35-- Chan Ho Park vs Jordan Zimmerman

EDIT: I thought it would help to see the pitch counts of the relievers from Friday's game to give a sense of who might be available in game two:

PHILLIES:

Durbin: 13; Eyre: 8; Madson: 13; Lidge: 21; Condrey: 5; Happ: 42

NATIONALS:

Mock: 2; Villone: 6; Colome: 11; Beimel: 20; Taverez: 35; Hanrahan: 36; Wells: 51

From this, I'd have to assume that Lidge is unavailable for the Phillies, since he did so poorly and threw 21 pitches. The Nationals probably don't have Tavarez, Hanrahan, or Wells, and Beimel may or may not be available. I think other than Beimel, the Nats will have to rely on Mock, Villone, and Colome unless they also make a move overnight as well.

More BABIP details included below, as I do the player by player matchups while using my BABIP projections from my article last week.

NATIONALS

LINEUP

The Nationals' hitters are not their problem. They are managing 5.3 runs/game, and they have a number of solid hitters. They are pretty solid from top to bottom. Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .357 after just ending a 30-game hitting strike. Like any hitter who has a hitting streak like that, Zimmerman was the beneficiary of a lot of luck. His BABIP is .394. He has a pretty normal line drive rate (21.2% line drives), so that is even more surprising. He also has popped out quite a few times this year, which makes his BABIP all the more improbable. He has 8 homeruns already, so he's clearly hitting the ball harder than last year in general though. Nick Johnson has an excellent eye, and is a good unconventional fit for the two hole. He bats before Zimmerman. After Zimmerman is power hitter Adam Dunn. Dunn already has 11 homeruns this year, and is walking at the same pace while cutting back on his strikeouts. He's had some luck on balls in play too, but his .310 average looks very impressive. The Nationals have a pretty right-handed lineup othr than Johnson & Dunn, and leadoff hitter Christian Guzman is a switch hitter.

(1) SS Cristian Guzman (S): .390/.390/.500

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L): .333/.411/.447

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average. My system does not project him as he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R): .357/.408/.608

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L): .310/.444/.638

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) CF Elijah Dukes (R): .280/.353/.477

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average according to most systems. My system actually puts him at about .316.
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(6) RF Austin Kearns (R): .229/.373/.446

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around. My system has him at .299.
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(7) C Jesus Flores (R): .311/.382/.522

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist.
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

(8) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S): .282/.378/.346

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs. My system does not project him since he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

The Nationals bench is weaker with Lastings Milledge demoted to AAA and subsequently injured. Josh Willingham has been struggling to get hits, but has hit for power. He is the Nats best threat on the bench. The rest of the bench is pretty weak.

C Wil Nieves (R): .276/.300/.310

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R): .194/.324/.484

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .305.
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R): .163/.200/.233

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power according to most systems, but my system has him at .308.
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Alex Cintron (S): .050/.136/.050

proj avg: .270/.310/.380
bb: 5%
k: 14%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: about average overall. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and okay eye; thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .694/.757
h/a: .728/.693
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

UTL Willie Harris (L): .226/.359/.387

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .302.
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies will need to stay patient against all three starters they face this series. John Lannan is probably going to be the hardest since he is better against lefties, and actually better all around. Scott Olsen will pitch the day game of Saturday's doubleheader. He has struggled for the most part this year, though he did have a good game a couple weeks ago against the Phillies. The second game of Saturday's doubleheader will be another shot for Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has a 4.98 ERA, but he has surrendered 28 walks and only struck out 13 in 34.1 innings. He has only survived due to an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/Flyball rate. The Phillies should be able to score a lot of runs off the struggling righty. On Sunday, the Phillies will face Jordan Zimmerman. He has actually been pretty strong this year in terms of strikeouts and walks, but has struggled to have an ERA that reflects this.

FRIDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L): 3.89 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.78 FIP

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 8/15, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 XBH
Victorino: 6/13, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 3/11, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/9, 1 HR, 1 BB,0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Scott Olsen (L): 7.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.25 HR/9, 4.88 FIP

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 7/40, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/27, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Howard: 13/27, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 7/16, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 4/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Daniel Cabrera (R): 4.98 ERA, 7.3 BB/9, 3.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.81 FIP

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

Cabrera vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 9/29, 5 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 SF
Stairs: 5/23, 1 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Rollins: 4/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Jordan Zimmerman (L): 5.90 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.55 HR/9, 4.67 FIP

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

Zimmerman: has not pitched against any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Shairon Martis (R): 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.35 FIP

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Marson: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan. He is a bit wild, and so the Phillies should be patient if he comes in. The Nats have two lefties in their pen, but none are all that fantastic. Beimel, a sinkerballing lefty, is probably the better of the two. The left-handed heart of the Phillies lineup will likely have to face him once or twice, once the starters come out, but he is not the kind of lefties that will dominate them as his K/9 is way below average. The other lefty is Ron Villone who recently joined the team. The Nats bullpen overall is full of guys who induce groundballs, but are prone to wildness. None really has the kind of stuff that blows you away, but scoring off the Nats bullpen will be a matter of putting runners on and hitting line drives, while avoiding the double play ball. The Nationals bullpen has been in a constant state of change, and each time the Phillies have faced them, I have to redo all of these numbers as they keep cycling in and out new guys. In fact, the Nationals have already used 12 relief pitchers this year.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R): 6.28 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.79 FIP

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/7, 4 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/10, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/7, 1 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Coste: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Joe Beimel (L): 3.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.26 FIP

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Beimel vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Cairo: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/,1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Julian Tavarez (R): 5.65 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Tavarez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 10/26, 4 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kip Wells (R): 4.40 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.73 FIP

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

Wells vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Utley: 4/15, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 3/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 3B, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/2, 2 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Garrett Mock (R): 4.66 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.01 FIP

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Mock vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ron Villone (L): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 2.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.64 FIP

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 68% fb, 26% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .781 vs .701 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .731 ops; 1.5 vs 1.4 k/bb

Villone vs Phillies:

Cairo: 6/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 1/7, 6 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

Jesus Colome (R): had not played before this series

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 71% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 0.95 k/bb, .698 vs .817 ops
h/a: .725 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb

Kensing vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

The Phillies have managed 5.3 runs/game but you wouldn't know it from watching them lately. Leadoff hitter and former MVP Jimmy Rollins continues to hover around the Mendoza line, and only has two homeruns this year. Shane Victorino is no longer hitting the ball very well, though overall has likely improved his power skills somewhat this year which is a huge improvement for him. Chase Utley hurt his foot on a HBP a couple weeks ago and his average has plummeted since. He still seems to be hitting the ball hard, though, but just missing more and hitting it at people. His homerun boom this year has come at the expense of a doubles drought, which means he probably isn't actually more powerful than before, but just more deep flyballs are leaving the yard. His BABIP should pick back up and his HR rate should fall. That still makes him the most valuable second basemen in the league and one of the most valuable players in the league. Howard is suddenly striking out more in the past few days. Werth has been crushing the ball overall recently, and Ibanez has fallen off his pace a little bit but has still hit the ball very well. Feliz has seen improved patience at the plate but his average is a BABIP mirage. Carlos Ruiz finally seems to be hitting the ball and reaching base at an incredible pace to catch up for some of his bad luck earlier. My BABIP models continue to project him to look better than he has been in recent years, so there's a reasonable chance that maybe he is actually the .260-.270 hitter that my computer keeps telling me he is.

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .200/.238/.296

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .252/.296/.424

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .278/.414/.574

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .262/.338/.492

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .288/.394/.541

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .336/.403/.672

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .283/.355/.396

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .257/.409/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

Matt Stairs has been the hero of the Phillies bench, hitting the ball very hard all year, managing a ridiculous 1.257 OPS. Dobbs was the superstar pinch hitter last year but is hitting .138 with no extra base hits this year. Bruntlett is doig terribly, hitting .130. If Manuel would commit to just using him against LHP, he would find that Bruntlett is actually a league average hitter against lefties. He just hits worse than many left-handed pitchers against righties. Cairo and Coste have been pretty useless this year from the right side.

C Chris Coste (R): .204/.316/.367

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .130/.214/.261

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .138/.219/.138

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .368/.520/.737

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

DESIGNATED FOR ASSIGNMENT: IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .125/.125/.125

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

I keep saying the Phillies' starters will be fine and they do keep improving. Moyer will not start this series, which is good, because he's the one I'm most concerned about. The strikeout and walk numbers for these guys have been fine. Friday's starter, Joe Blanton, has had struggles but they have been just bad luck on HR/Flyball rates, which will normalize. His 6.82 ERA should get down into the 4's soon enough. Myers could stand to improve his strikeout rate a little bit, but he hasn't been terrible. His recent strikeout numbers have been much better, but he still seems to have problems with consistency and concentration on the mound. He will start the day game of Saturday's doubleheader. Game two of the doubleheader will be started by J.A. Happ, who will make his first start of the year. Happ was many people's choice for the fifth starter instead of Chan Ho Park, though with Moyer's struggles, this may be an audition for a couple of roles. Happ is a mediocre pitcher in reality, but the grass tends to be greener on the other side, and he does seem appealing from afar. He does struggle with control and keeping the ball on the ground and getting people to swing and miss at his offspeed and breaking stuff is essential for his success. Sunday will be Chan Ho Park, who looks to put together a third start in a row. I championed him at the end of Spring Training, saying that his K/BB numbers warranted giving him a shot. I've tempored that excitement somewhat, though his performances in the last two games indicate that he is a five-hole starter in reality.

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.82 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.66 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Nationals:

Dukes: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zimmerman: 5/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/9, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Flores: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.81 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.30 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Nationals:

zimmerman: 12/32, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Johnson: 5/23, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP
Guzman: 9/25, 0 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 6 K
Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Willingham: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3K, 1 HBP
Harris: 0/13, 3 BB, 4 K
Flores: 2/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cintron: 4/10, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Andrew Carpenter: AAA numbers-- 4.72 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 HR/9

gb: 40% in minors

pitches: last year in 1 inning of work in MLB, he threw 73% fb, 13% sf, 7% sl, 7% ch

r/l: seems better against righties in minors

h/a: not enough info

Carpenter: has not pitched against any Nationals (unless it was in the minors)

SUNDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.00 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/16, 0 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 1/11, 2 BB, 1 K
harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Dunn: 0/1, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 8.15 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.63 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Nationals:

Guzman: 14/43, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 8/30, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 4/24, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 2/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/15, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 6/18, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Harris: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Kearns: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Dukes: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dunn: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.04 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 11/39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Kearns: 6/23, 2 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Belliard: 6/25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Flores: 1/14, 0 BB, 8 K
Johnson: 3/13, 3 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 1/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Dukes: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

The Phillies bullpen has obviously been disappointing thus far this year. Lidge has given up an incredible number of homeruns (5) for just 14.2 IP. Hitters have been hitting the ball hard off him, and partly due to his poor control, walking a number of hitters as well. Ryan Madson has been very good thus far, striking out hitters at quite the pace. He will eventually start giving up homeruns, but his ERA should stay low. The rest of the bullpen is a question mark. Eyre and Taschner have both been very bad, struggling to strike guys out and walking many. Durbin has been up and down, and Condrey is pitching over his head thus far.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.59 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.1 HR/9, 7.32 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Nationals:

Dunn: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 9 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kearns: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 0/3, 1 Bb, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/2, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.35 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 6/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/6, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 3/4, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 5.14 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.78 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Nationals:

Dunn: 5/18, 3 HR, 2 Bb, 9 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 2/13, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Guzman: 1/7, 2 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 1 Bb, 0 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
WIllingham: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 0/1 , 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 1 BB
Flores: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 4.50 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 6.09 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Nationals:

Dunn: 1/8, 2 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/3, 2 BB (1 HBP), 1 K
Guzman: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dukes: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Flores: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.19 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Nationals:

Guzman: 5/20, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Kearns: 1/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 2/15, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 2/8, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Dukes: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 4/6, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Kearns: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/6, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.75 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.67 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Nationals:

Belliard: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1 BB
Johnson: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 0/8, 0 BB, 5 K
Johnson: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 2 BB
Flores: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Zimmerman Hits In 28-Straight, Washington Nationals Hit 4 HR's And Lose To D-Backs, 10-8.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 11 May 2009 01:31:20 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

7 months ago: Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn, top right, celebrates his second home run of the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with teammates Ryan Zimmerman (11), and Josh Willingham in the fifth inning during a baseball game Sunday, May 10, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Browse more photos »

Help Yourself...

After allowing a two-out RBI single to Arizona starter Max Scherzer in the second to put the D-Backs up 1-0, DC lefty Scott Olsen was given a 2-1 lead when Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham hit back to back home runs in the third. Olsen then surrendered two runs in the bottom of the frame on back-to-back two-out doubles to make it 3-2 AZ.

Ryan Zimmerman doubled in the fifth and scored on Dunn's second dinger, which put Washington up 4-3, and Olsen gave up a leadoff double and a one-out HR to Eric Byrnes to make it 5-4 D-Backs. Nick Johnson hits a groundout to second with a runner on third to tie it at 5-5 in the top of the sixth, and Ryan Zimmerman singles in a run to tie make it 6-5 DC after five and a half...

The Nationals replace Olsen with Logan Kensing, who gives up three-straight singles, which tie it at 6-6, and then a one-out double that scores two, and a fourth single that caps it off at 9-6 D-Backs after six. The Nationals add one in the seventh when Willie Harris triples and scores on Cristian Guzman's groundout, 9-7, Julian Tavarez gives up a run in the eighth, 10-7. The Nationals score in the ninth, when Willingham goes deep again, 10-8 D-Backs, but that's as close as it gets...

The Washington Nationals put together 13 hits, 4 HR's, a double, a triple and 8 runs and lose because their pitchers allow 17 hits and 10 runs.

THE KIDS CALL IT THE STREAK!!!

• Ryan Zimmerman didn't like waiting until the eighth inning on Saturday night, so he got it over with early again on Sunday, singling with two down in the first to extend his hit streak to 28 games. Zimmerman ends the day with 12 doubles, 6 HR's, 22 RBI's, a .346 AVG and a .394 OBP.

• Adam Dunn goes 3 for 5 with 2 HR's and 3 RBI's, and hits 4 HR's in the 3-game series in Arizona, now has 11 on the year, 4 doubles, 28 RBI's to go with a .311 AVG and a .451 OBP. (Series w/ Arizona - 6 for 11, 4 HR's, 5 RBI's.)

• Scott Olsen throws 109 pitches, 62 for strikes and allows 10 hits, 3 walks, 5 ER in 4.1 IP, striking out 2 and ending the game with a 7.00 ERA.

• Logan Kensing comes on in the sixth, goes 0.2 IP, and gives up 5 hits, 4 ER.

D-Backs win, 10-8 final.

Full Game Report (Currently Unedited) After The Jump...

Nationals now 10-19-1.

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks. Game 29 or 30 of 162.

Arizona starter Max Scherzer starts Anderson “Elvis” Hernandez with a fastball for a strike, and strikes him out with another heater low and inside. Nick “Two-Spot” Johnson hits a one-hop liner to second for Felipe Lopez. Ryan Zimmerman rips a 94 mph fastball back up the middle and off Scherzer’s glove for a single to extend his hit streak to 28 games. Adam Dunn spins a liner to right and it tails away from Felipe Lopez, Zimmerman to third. Max Scherzer gets The Hammer swinging, out ahead of a two-strike change, no score after a half...Willie Harris takes a few steps back to catch the first out off Felipe Lopez’s bat. Chris Young hits the second out right to Willie Harris. Justin Upton flies to right, and the Big Donkey boots it, and has it roll right by him, Upton takes third. Willie Harris backs up to the wall to catch Mark Reynolds’ fly ball and end the first.

Max Scherzer throws a fastball by Willie Harris for a swinging K to start the second. Alex Cintron takes a 3-2 pitch low on the outside corner for a one-out walk. Wil Nieves shoots a line drive to right, Cintron (only) takes second. Scott Olsen bunts too hard back to the mound, and Scherzer’s able to get the lead runner at third. Anderson Hernandez flies to left and Eric Byrnes closes his glove on the top of the second...Adam Dunn reaches up as he trots to his left and catches Byrnes’ fly ball for the first out. Chris Snyder takes a one-out walk. Ryan Roberts rips a line drive to left field, Snyder to second. Josh Wilson battles Olsen, but eventually flies out to Willie Harris in center. Max Scherzer gets his bat on the ball and singles through short to score Snyder from second for a 1-0 D-Backs’ lead. Felipe Lopez grounds to first, through Scherzer’s legs, but Johnson handles it and beats Lopez (who is running full speed) to the bag.

Mark Reynolds dives toward the first base line and robs Nick Johnson of extra bases, shuffling to Scherzer covering. Max Scherzer challenges Ryan Zimmerman with two 3-1 fastballs and gets a swinging K from the “Streaker”. Adam Du---SHAKE N BAKE!!! SHAKE N BAKE!! Adam Dunn takes a fastball to DEEEEEEP left and GONE!! 1-1 ballgame. Josh Willingham goes HAMMER!!! Long fly to center, 410 and then some, 2-1 DC!!! Willie Harris walks. Alex Cintron grounds harmlessy to second to end the top of the third...Chris Young beats A-Hands to the second base hole, and single into right. Justin Upton takes a 3-2 pitch from Olsen that bounces in the dirt. Double steal, and the Nationals have Upton heading for second, so Young breaks toward home from third, Nick Johnson throws home, and Young’s caught and tagged, while Upton takes third. Mark Reynolds rips one right into Cintron’s glove. Eric Byrnes goes down the line in right and it drops in fair in front of Dunn, Upton scores. 2-2. Chris Snyder bounces one off the base of the center field wall, Byrnes crosses, 3-2 AZ. Ryan Roberts grounds to second to end the third.

Wil Nieves grounds weakly to short. Max Scherzer walks Scott Olsen and then gets Anderson Hernandez swinging at three-straight fastballs. Nick Johnson flies out to center to end the Nationals’ fourth...Adam Dunn makes a non-chalant over the shoulder grab on a fly ball to right from Josh Wilson. Scherzer swings through an 88mph two-strike fastball. Not even Ryan Zimmerman can throw Felipe Lopez out on a ground ball to the third base bag. Chris Young tests Zimmerman again, Zim dives to his right, stabs it and fires to first, IN TIME!! 3-2 AZ after four.

Ryan Zimmerman splits the right center gap with a line drive double to start the fifth. Adam Du--SHAKE N BAKE!!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Two-run HR to the opposite field and over the wall, 4-3 DC. Josh Willingham hits a sharp grounder to short, Josh Wilson makes it look easy. Willie Harris flies out to center. Alex Cintron gets jammed and flies out...Justin Upton beats Nick Johnson to the first base line and legs out a double in front of Dunn’s throw. Olsen hangs a two-strike slider that slips under Mark Reynolds’ bat. Olsen hangs a change up for Eric Byrnes who destroys it and deposits it ten rows back in left, 5-4 D-Backs. Olsen walks Chris Snyder. Ryan Roberts drills Olsen in the leg with a line drive, and reaches safely. Olsen out, Garrett Mock on in relief. Chris Snyder reaches on an excuse-me grounder toward third. Bases loaded. Pinch hitter Josh Whitesell takes a two-strike fastball for a called strike three. Felipe Lopez chops one to short, Cintron steps on second.

Esmerling Vasquez takes over on the hill for Arizona. Wil Nieves rips a single off of Mark Reynolds’ glove at first. Dukes on to pinch hit. Anderson Hernandez gets down a perfect sac bunt. Nick Johnson grounds to second, Nieves scores, 5-5 game. Dukes on third. Ryan Zimmer- THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! Single up the middle, Dukes scores, 6-5 DC!! Dunn K’s to end the DC sixth...Logan Kensing gives up a leadoff line drive to center to start the AZ sixth. Justin Upton goes to center as well. Kensing’s fooling no one. Alex Cintron fields a hotshot to short from Mark Reynolds, and fires to third, but hits Chris Young in the back with the throw and it bounces to the dugout, Young scores to tie it, 6-6 in the sixth. Second and third for Eric Byrnes. Byrnes grounds to short, Zimmerman picks it, looks Upton back and fires to first, where Nick Johnson picks it. Chris Snyder doubles over Dunn’s head and off the wall, two runs score, 8-6 D-Backs. Ryan Roberts can’t hold up, but he drops a single into center on a check swing, Snyder scores, 9-6 Arizona. Josh Wison grounds out to Zimmerman, Kensing done. Ron Villone vs Chad Tracy. Tracy lines to left, Willingham catches it. 9-6 D-Backs after six.

The Tallest Pitcher in MLB History, Jon Rauch, starts the seventh. Josh Willingham pops out to short left. TAWH, The Amazing Willie Harris triples to the right field corner with one down. Wil Nieves almost goes long to left, but then he K’s on the next pitch. Cristian Guzman grounds to second, and Felipe Lopez boots it, Harris scores, 9-7 D-Backs. Anderson Hernandez K’s swinging over a curve...Julian Tavarez drops a two-strike slider in under Felipe Lopez’s bat. Tavarez gets Chris Young looking. Upton lines out to second to end the seventh.

Scott Schoenweis gives up a leadoff line drive single to right to Nick Johnson. Tony Pena comes on for AZ to face Zimmerman. Zimmerman grounds to Josh Wilson, to Felipe Lopez to Mark Reynolds, double play. Adam Dunn skies one to center, 9-7 middle of the eighth...Tavarez is back on to face Reynolds. Mark Reynolds singles over second. Reynolds steals second. Eric Byrnes flies to left center, and Reynolds tags and takes third. Chris Snyder takes a one-out walk. Ryan Roberts flies to right, Reynolds scores, 10-7 D-Backs. Tavarez walks Josh Wilson. Augie Ojeda K’s swinging to end a long eighth.

Chad Qualls comes on to close out the D-Backs’ win. Josh Willingham gets a slider minus the slide and HAMMERS it to left and GONE! 10-8 Arizona. Willie Harris bounces one back up the middle. Alex Cintron flies out to center on the first pitch he sees. Wil Nieves K’s on a called strike three up high. Cristian Guzman grounds out to second. 10-8 D-Backs win.

Nationals now 10-19-1.

Phillies vs. Nationals: April 27-29

Matt Swartz — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:33:58 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

Grand slamming Shane Victorino and the Phightin' Phils head home to face the Nats this week. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

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The Phillies (9-8) head back home after sweeping the Marlins to face the Nationals (4-13) who avoided the sweep by beating the Mets on Sunday. The game that everyone has their eyes on is Tuesday night's start by Cole Hamels' start against the Nationals. After a terrible start to begin the year, a good start turned bad to follow it, and a dominating three innings against the Brewers in his third start terminated early after a homerun and a linedrive off the shoulder, Cole will hope the fourth one's a charm. Before that, Blanton will take on the Nats on Monday though. The Phillies will have to face a couple of lefties, including their old nemesis Scott Olsen this week. Here are the matchups:

MONDAY 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Shairon Martis (R)

TUESDAY 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. John Lannan (L)

WEDNESDAY 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs. Scott Olsen (L)

Here are the players' peripherals and splits

NATIONALS

LINEUP

The Nationals have a decent lineup, but they have not exactly managed their resources perfectly meaning that they have five guys who could legitimately play LF/RF/1B, and two are on the bench. They have two solid lefties with great eyes right in the top of their lineup, and it will be important for the Phillies to get past them. The Nationals do not have much power outside of these guys and Zimmerman though and they don't have very good contact hitters either. Other than Johnson and Dunn in the top of their lineup, the rest of their lineup is actually right-handed or switch-hitters.

(1) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S)

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L)

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L)

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) CF Elijah Dukes (R)

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(6) RF Austin Kearns (R)

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(7) C Jesus Flores (R)

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

(8) SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)

proj: .260/.310/.380
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: low due to high infield fly rate and low infield hit rate
s/c/z: patient but not especially good discipline; good contact skill though
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: tends to be a pull hitter but not much info
other: none

BENCH

The Nats should have a solid couple of hitters on the bench every day, so they do have some pinch hitting threats.

C Wil Nieves (R)

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R)

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R)

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Alex Cintron (S)

proj avg: .270/.310/.380
bb: 5%
k: 14%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: about average overall
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and okay eye; thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .694/.757
h/a: .728/.693
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Justin Maxwell (R)

proj avg: .240/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 24%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 17% in minors in 2008
ifh: n/a
babip: seems bad, but little info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: much, much better agianst lhp in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Cristian Guzman (S)

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UTL Willie Harris (L)

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other:

DISABLED LIST: OF Roger Bernadina (L)

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 9%
k: 22%
gb: 67% so far and seems right based on minor league numbers
iff: 8% in minors last year
ifh: seems to be prone to a few but tough to know
babip: speed probably keeps it a bit high but lack of power indicates not that high
s/c/z: so far has had good eye and decent contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies have to face two lefties this series. None of the starters they have to face are very tough and neither of the lefties are especially tough on lefties. On Wednesday, the Phillies will face their old nemesis, Scott Olsen.

MONDAY STARTER: Shairon Martis (R)

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies

Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Marson: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies

Rollins: 5/12, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Utley: 5/11, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 XBH

Victorino: 4/11, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

Howard: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP

Werth: 3/8, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K

Feliz: 3/6, 1 BB,0 K

Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Scott Olsen (L)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 6/28, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

Utley: 4/24, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

Howard: 11/24, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP

Victorino: 2/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 6/13, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K

Feliz: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K

Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K

Ibanez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Jordan Zimmerman (L)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Daniel Cabrera (R)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

BULLPEN

The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan. The rest of the bullpen has practically been replaced since the Phillies' first series against the Nats this year. The only lefty in the pen is the mediocre Mike Hinkley.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Saul Rivera (R)

proj avg: 3.90 EAR, 3.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 45% fb, 34% sl, 19% ct, 2% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home (2.1 k/bb vs 1.2)

Michael Hinckley (L)

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 33% cb
r/l: major loogy probably, but tough to tell from limited info
h/a: not enough info

Julian Tavarez (R)

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Garrett Mock (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Jason Bergmann (R)

proj avg: 4.65 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 55% fb, 21% cb, 15% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .734/.870
h/a: .764/.840

Kip Wells (R)

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

DISABLED LIST: Joe Beimel (L)

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson have been splitting time with Coste starting more often. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power. Carlos Ruiz is apparently returning Wednesday, so Marson will be sent down then.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S)

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S)

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L)

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L)

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R)

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L)

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R)

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R)

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L)

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L)

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R)

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R)

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R)

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

ROTATION

Joe Blanton starts Monday night's game against the Nationals. He is mostly a contact pitcher, but he has struggled this year. Cole Hamels starts Tuesday night's game, after a frustrating start to 2009. He was dominating the Brewers through three innings last Thursday before he gave up a homerun to Braun and was hit by a linedrive and needed to leave the game. He'll look to rebound against the Nationals this Tuesday and put together a solid start. Myers will pitch Wednesday night.

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R)

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Nats:

Dukes: 2/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Belliard: 3/8,1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Zimmerman: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K

Dunn: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K

Flores: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K

Johnson: 4/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Cintron: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K

Kearns: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Nieves: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Gonzalez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Hernandez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L)

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Nats:

Zimmerman: 10/37, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K

Kearns: 6/22, 2 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 3 K

Belliard: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K

Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K

Flores: 1/12, 0 BB, 7 K, 0 XBH

Johnson: 3/11, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K

Dunn: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K

Dukes: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Maxwell: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K

Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Cintron: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Nieves: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Nats:

Zimmerman: 11/30, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 SF (1.096 OPS)

Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP, 1 SF

Johnson: 4/21, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP

Dunn: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 5 K

Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP

Willingham: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP

Flores: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K

Cintron: 4/10, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K

Hernandez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 XBH

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R)

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Ryan Madson (R)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Scott Eyre (L)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Jack Taschner (L)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Chad Durbin (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Clay Condrey (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

J.A. Happ (L)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

The 2009 Washington Nationals: Who Will Still Be A National On Monday?

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 09:11:36 -0000

Anderson Hernandez's Injury Opens Up Infield...

What does Anderson Hernandez's trip to the DL with a hamstring injury mean for the Washington Nationals' 2009 Opening Day roster? Count Alberto Gonzalez in, according to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, who notes in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Hernandez Will Start Year On DL", that the injury also opens up an opportunity for someone else in camp, as Mr. Harlan writes, "A final roster spot remains for a position player, almost certainly to be filled by either a third catcher (Wil Nieves or Josh Bard), Kory Casto or Alex Cintron." Cintron has played mostly short and second in his career, while Casto's played the outfield, first and third, but Casto is not a second baseman, and with Hernandez out for now, and Ronnie Belliard next in line at second, the situation would seem to favor Cintron, even though Casto's out of options and would have to clear waivers to get assigned to the minors. Kory Casto might be out of luck...

The Nationals need a third catcher as much as they need a seventh outfielder. But judging by the last few years in the franchise's history, it probably does make sense to have extra outfielders around since it's almost a certainty some injury will occur in the first few days of the season, when someone's groin or hamstring doesn't hold up under the stress of the first real sprint, slide or dive. So having Josh Willingham to play the outfield if Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns or Lastings Milledge goes down, or if Adam Dunn, who'll start the season in left, were to move to first in the event of what many see as an inevitable injury to Nick Johnson...

...For once the Washington Nationals are prepared. Even if one of the starting three, (which I'm startled to see looks like it might be Dunn, Milledge and Kearns), goes down, with Willingham able to play left or possibly first, Dunn (supposedly) capable of playing left and first, and even right when necessary, as in the WBC, and Elijah Dukes pushing for time in center and right, the Nationals shouldn't end up with Willie Harris tied for second on the team in HR's again...So now, watch them trade Nick Johnson this weekend...one last time, DO NOT TRADE NICK JOHNSON.

John Lannan Gets Bad Outing Out Of His System...

His pitches were high in the zone and he was behind in the count. That's what DC lefty John Lannan told MLB.com's Bill Ladson the problem was yesterday, in an article entitled, "Nats come up short in loss vs Jays", after Lannan allowed 10 hits, 3 walks and 7 ER over 4.2 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays in the last Spring Training start he'll make before meeting the Marlins on Monday in Miami.

Lannan ends Spring Training with a (1-2) record and a 3.97 ERA in 22.2 IP over which he allowed 25 hits, 12 R, 10 ER, 1 HR and 5 walks while collecting 5 K's.. Last spring, Lannan was described by MLB.com's Bill Ladson as, "...the Nationals' best pitcher in Spring Training (after) going (2-0) with a 2.18 ERA In 5 games", but he lost the battle for the final spot in the Washington rotation to a high-kicking Matt Chico and was scheduled to pitch for the Columbus Clippers when Chad Cordero's trip to the DL prompted his return to the Nationals' roster. DC Manager Manny Acta told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in the same 4/5/08 article quoted above, which is entitled, "Lannan happy to be back in Majors", that he liked, "'[Lannan's] command. It's very good for a guy his age, especially being left-handed...He is able to hit that glove consistently and he shows no fear." Lannan's legendary cool will be tested on Monday, though it's the Marlins' opener, so the pressure's on them...

GAME THREAD...Washington at Philadelphia

Scott Olsen vs Jamie Moyer on the mound...1:05 pm EST, Washington and Philadelphia from the Phillies' Spring home, Bright House Networks Field in Clearwater, Florida, in the last game in Florida before the Nationals head north to Norfolk, VA and Nationals Park for two straight exhibition games with the Orioles...

Who's Watching The Nationals' Last Spring Training Game In Florida?

Before the Game...Check this out...

Paul Francis Sullivan of Sully Baseball.com emailed me to let me know that he'd taken a second look at DC baseball history for a series of posts he's written comparing each MLB team's best All-Time Home Grown team and the best All-Time Acquired team, this time excluding the Expos, and sticking solely to the nation's capitals' "original Senators, expansion Senators and the Nationals." Which Nationals' starter makes the "Home Grown" starting rotation? Who starts at third for the "Home Grown" team...over Ryan Zimmerman?

Who's Watching The Nationals?

Spring Training: LIVE -Game 9 Game Thread: Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:44:53 -0000

(ed. note: "MLB.tv viewers, the game is being broadcast on the internets today, so everyone can watch the Nationals and Orioles...Who's Watching The Watc...Nationals?")

We're gonna try something new today...Doghouse, leader of the federalbaseball.com W.A.R. Effort, is on his way to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida's cleverly-named Fort Lauderdale Stadium, the Spring home of the Washington Nationals' Mid-Atlantic rivals, the Baltimore Orioles, and he'll be reporting live via iPhone this afternoon...I'll add updates throughout the game, so if you're watching(It's on MASN!! and MLB.tv!!) or listening or following along, check back for some updates or stay with us for the first attempt at a live game thread this season...

Back with more soon...

Here's the Nationals' starting lineup courtesy of the Washington Post's Tracee Hamilton:

Cristian Guzman - SS

Alex Cintron - DH

Kory Casto - 3B

Brad Eldred - 1B

Corey Patterson - CF

Jose Castillo - 2B

Roger Bernadina - LF

Justin Maxwell - RF

Wil Nieves - C

DC's Own DC, Daniel Cabrera throwing strikes...(or at least fastballs)...check out the box score for the O's lineup...

The Orioles' fans are watching too, check out the SBN's Baltimore Orioles blog:

Camden Chat

...to see what O's fans are thinking.

DOGHOUSE -

"It's a cavalcade of scrubs except for Guz at short and Cabrera pitching..."

DOGHOUSE -

"Away, there goes my scoops (ed. note - "?"), Hmmmm, a few drops of rain. Eldred(Who?) with a perfect bloop single to short...after Cintron and Casto flied to OF...Cabrera looks VERY TALL..."

DOGHOUSE -

"He's got a good build," says Mrs. Doghouse of Daniel Cabrera, despite the fact that he's quickly in a two-on, 0 out jam..." (ed. note - "O's score on a Nick Markakis' groundout. 1-0 Baltimore.")

DOGHOUSE -

"For a guy who practically hands the ball to (catcher Wil) Nieves, he's having trouble finding the zone...and Cabrera walks Huff...Nats are looking very much little league right now...'This feels too familiar,' Mrs. D mutters as Cabrera issues another free pass...(ed. note - "But Roger Bernadina saves the day with a diving catch to rob Felix Pie on a bases loaded liner...1-0 O's after one...")

DOGHOUSE -

"Awesome! After a diving catch worth of TAWH, Bernadina knocks in J.Castillo with a beautiful broken bat double that bounces exactly over first, and hooks away. I almost see JimBo's love of toolsy OFers with no power..."

DOGHOUSE -

"TARB - The Amazing Roger Bernadina!!!" TARB can't get them all...(single by Brian Roberts falls in short left...)

DOGHOUSE -

"As a humiliating double steal goes down, the O's fan next to use shakes his head with a rueful and sympathetic grin..."

DOGHOUSE -

"(Ross) Detwiler to the rescue!"

DOGHOUSE -

"Detwiler pitches with a real easy-looking motion, 'He looks like the ball can hurt him," notes Mr. Doghouse, 'He's got an O'Connor build. Despite a free pass, Ross Detwiler gets a DP ball, prompting an eyeroll from out neighbor, 'He's (Wiggington) beyond slow."

DOGHOUSE -

"This inning, Casto doesn't quite have Zimmy's range. 'I think we're gonna say goodbye to Detwiler,' sighs Mrs. Doghouse, 'Although I would like to see the Human Rain Delay...."(ed. note - Human Rain Delay = Jesus Colome?")

DOGHOUSE -

"(New DC Pitcher Preston) Larrison throws as hard as Cabrera with just as much control...(another double steal follows a walk and a HBP)...and he gives up the double steals, like Cabrera...Mmmm, soft serve! Larrison has a walk, HBP, double steal, no coffee for you, sir!"

DOGHOUSE -

"Hard to tell with my non-zooming phone cam, but I think you can see the red socks, (Mike Hinckley) plays w/ his pants up like a real ballplayer."

DOGHOUSE -

"'It's OK, Wil,' encourages Mrs. Doghouse as Wil Nieves K's, 'You're still a pretty man." (ed. note - "Did she just call Nieves 'pretty'?)...'Hey, I'm sitting right, here', Doghouse responds...the inning ends quickly for the Nats, and it feels like we've been here a lot longer than 4.5 hours...in spite of the nice weather (70's and breezy)."

DOGHOUSE -

"Hinckley is throwing hard and changing speeds -- like a real pitcher almost! Two groundouts to 3rd so far, and Casto only made me slightly nervois on the plays. An easy popup to Bernadina? to end the inning, and I think we're down to no starters in for DC..."

DOGHOUSE -

"(Steven) Shell in to pitch. Promptly gives up a single up the middle...TARB now in center robs a bloop single...(Ian) Desmond goes back on a fly ball, frantically waving off everyone else...(Jorge) Padilla, who clearly has a bead on it, yells, 'I GOT IT!!' loud enough to hear it in the stands and makes the play...J-Max with a booming triple off the wall in RF. Let's see what this Herrera can do..."

DOGHOUSE -

"WOW! 18yr-old Destin Hood waits out a full-count walk! (ed. note - "And then takes second on a ball in the dirt.")...TARB smacks a double into the RF corner...(moving Jorge Padilla around, he stops at third) I never thought I'd miss Tim 'Send'em' Tolman, even though it was probably the right call..2 down for J. Maxwell, who grounds to second to end the DC 8th.)

DOGHOUSE -

"Awww...Hood gets to bat again, but chops out weakly, Nats drop 6-2. It's spring, it means nothing...Except a nice day with baseball." (ed. note - "Thanks, Doghouse!!!")

(ed. note - "For the Completists...Full Game Report after the jump...though there were too many subs, so Full-Unedited Game Report is probably more like it...")

We’ve got baseball, and it’s on TV!!! Nationals vs Orioles. Cristian Guzman starts the day by poking a single through short off O’s starter David Pauley. Alex Cintron gets caught looking for heat when a change is coming, swinging strike three. Kory Casto skies one to left, former Cubs’ prospect Felix Pie closes his glove on it...(Pie, Adam Jones and Markakis? Nice outfield, O’s, seriously.) Brad Eldred finds some grass in short left, and Guzman speeds around to third. Corey Patterson gets caught looking, and it’s time for a first look at Daniel Cabrera...Adam Jones rips into a 1-2 pitch from Cabrera to move Brian Roberts to third. Nick Markakis grounds to second, Roberts scores, 1-0 Orioles. Aubrey Huff gets ahead in the count again and Adam Jones steals second. Huff walks. Huff steals second off Cabrera. Cabrera walks ??? to load the bases. Cabrera gets Luke Scott swinging at a ball out of the zone for the second out. Roger Bernadina saves the day with a diving catch in left to rob Felix Pie. 1-0 after one.

Jose Castillo grounds to short, and gets a free pass when Ryan Freel throws wide of first. Roger Bernadina rips a line driver over first and into right, Castillo scores, 1-1 ballgame. Justin Maxwell gets called out looking at a fastball low on the outside corner. Wil Nieves grounds sharply to short, Freel gets this one. Cristian Guzman grounds out to second, 1-1 after one and a half...Ryan Freel gets robbed by Roger Bernadina again!! Diving catch on what should’ve been extra bases!!! Brian Roberts finds some grass Bernadina can’t get to for a two-out single. Adam Jones rips a two-out double to right. Double steal off Cabrera puts both runners in scoring position. Cabrera busts Markakis low and inside for a swinging K to end the threat...

Jose Castillo grounds out to first. Kory Casto grounds back to the mound for the second out. Fly ball to left from Brad Eldred to end the top o’ the third...Ross Detwiler walks the first batter he faces, Aubrey Huff. Ty Wiggington grounds to Casto at third, Castillo at short, to Eldred, double play. Luke Scott gets one under Brad Eldred’s glove at first for a two-out double. Kory Casto makes a Zimmermanesque stab at Felix Pie’s grounder, but can’t beat the speedy Pie to first. Robby Hammock rips a grounder through short for the two-out RBI to give Baltimore back their lead. 2-1 O’s. Ryan Freel grounds to Casto at third, throw to first, 2-1 O’s after three.

George Sherrill takes over on the mound in the 4th. Corey Patterson chases a high heater from Sherrill. Jose Castillo finds the gap in right center for a double with one down. Bernadina grounds out to second, Patterson to third, two down for Justin Maxwell. Maxwell takes the first pitch to center, Adam Jones makes the grab...New Nationals’ pitcher, Preston Larrison, walks Brian Roberts to start the O’s fourth. Adam Jones gets hit by Larrison, two on, no outs. Double steal. Nick Markakis takes a high called strike three. Huff singles up the middle, two runs cross, 4-1 Orioles. Ty Wiggington flies out to Maxwell in right...Matt Wieters doubles to left and another run scores, 5-1 O’s. Larrison is done. Mike Hinckley comes on to face Felix Pie. Larrison is done. Pie grounds to second, and Jose Castillo throws it by first, 6-1 O’s on the error. Chad Moeller flies out to shallow left to end the fourth.

Jamie Walker, the veteran lefty starts the fifth...Wil Nieves swings over a slow bender for the first out of the fifth. Cristian Guzman lines out to Adam Jones in center. Alex Cintron pushes an outside fastball into right. Kory Casto grounds into a force at second to end the DC fifth...Ryan Freel grounds out to Casto at third on the first pitch of the O’s fifth. Brian Roberts grounds out to Casto. Adam Jones flies out to right, and Hinckley’s got a quick frame

Nationals sixth starts with Dennis Sarfate on the mound for the O’s, striking out Brad Eldred. Jorge Padilla K’s looking for the second out of the sixth. Jose Castillo reaches on a chopper to third that Wiggington can’t get to first in time. Roger Bernadina flies out to Felix Pie in left,, 6-1 after the DC fifth...Steven Shell takes over on the mound. Nick Markakis starts the frame with a single up the middle and then is replaced by Holbert Cabrera. Craig Brazel flies out to Bernadina in center. Shell gets a fly ball from Wiggington for the second out. Matt Wieters flies out to left, Shell gets through a scoreless frame.

...too many subs...

Justin Maxwell starts the seventh with a wind-aided triple off the outfield wall. O’s pitcher Chris Tillman gives up a grounder to short to Javy Herrera that brings Maxwell home. Ian Desmond flies to center for the 2nd out. Destin Hood patiently takes a two-out walk. Kory Casto up, Hood takes second on a pitch in the dirt...Casto goes down swining...Stand up and stretch...Steven Shell’s back out for the seventh. Nolan Reimhold? flies out to Jorge Padilla in left. Chad Moeller grounds to Kory “The Vaccuum” Casto at third. Justin Turner rips a two-out single to center. Donnie?Murphy grounds to third, and Casto fires to first...On to the eighth...

Chris Marrero leads off the eighth with a line drive single to left. Chris Tillman’s stll on for the O’s, Jorge Padilla grounds into a force at second cutting down Marrero. Jose Castillo goes down (somehow? Sorry.) Roger Bernadina doubles to right and moves Padilla to third. Justin Maxwell grounds out to second to end the DC eighth...Bobby Brownlie to pitch the bottom of the eighth. Justin Christian backs Justin Maxell up to the wall where he catches the first out. Jolbert Cabrera goes down chasing. Craig Brazell flies out to left...Three outs to get four runs...

Freddy Deza tries to end it for the O’s. Javier Herrera chases high heat for the first out. lines out to Donnie Murphy. Destin Hood grounds out to first to end it. 6-2 O’s win.