SB Nation - Paul Konerko

Mark Whicker: 6 Days Late Breaking Dumb Trade Rumors

Rev Halofan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:31:02 -0000

How backward and out of touch is Orange County Register sportswriter Mark Whicker?

Sunday afternoon he reported the Paul Konerko-to-Anaheim via Adrian Gonzalez-to- White Sox rumors. The one where the Angels surrender great prospects to the Padres for one year of an arthritic has-been.

The wholly false rumor, contemptible alone because there is no place to even put Konerko on the Angels, is the product of offseason speculation sprouting wings as "rumor" on days when there is nothing left to report and reporters are even to lazy to look at the needs of the teams they involve in their exotic fantasy threesomes.

But Whicker's sin is not in repeating a piece-of-dirt rumor... no his complete oafish incomprehension that online reporting has whizzed so far past him and made him a relic of a bygone time is evident in the mere fact that he is linking to a six day old piece-of-dirt rumor. Can someone please wake up the Dodo bird?

And when Whicker is not repeating week-old garbage (probably has to fill a bullsheet "freedomblogging" quota), he can play the stereotypical "old school" retarded sportswriter better than most... check out his defense of "Wins" as important for a pitcher's postseason awards worthiness and the retorts from the peanut gallery.

I hate to pick on writers with fewer readers than this blog. Well... actually, I kind of enjoy it.

UPDATE: Just found that the same Angels Blog REPORTED THE RUMOR and pronounced it mockworthy within a day of the rumor breaking. Mark Whicker doesn't even read his own paper's Angels coverage. What a hack amateur.

Poll

The Worst Sports Columnist at the OC Register is

Mark "Garrido" Whicker

187 votes

Earl "Bypass" Bloom

17 votes

Randy "Henny" Youngman

25 votes

Jeff "Smells Like Teen Spirit" Miller

85 votes

314 votes | Poll has closed

Report: Braves Attempting to Move Derek Lowe

gondeee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:05:31 -0000

From Ken Rosenthal, we learn that the Atlanta Braves have had what seems like several conversations with teams about trading starting pitcher Derek Lowe, but they have had little luck finding a taker:

The Braves' most extensive discussions concerning Lowe have been with the Brewers about a trade for outfielder Corey Hart, according to one source.

But the Brewers are not sure they would want Lowe even if the Braves included significant money in the deal, another source says.

Another team showing interest is the Angels:

The Angels, who showed interest in Lowe about a month ago, according to sources, could use him to replace Lackey in their rotation. The Braves, seeking a right-handed hitter, like Angels outfielder Juan Rivera.

Rosenthal also speculates that the White Sox could be a match for the Braves, in a possible swap for right-handed first baseman Paul Konerko, but no sources are cited for that rumor.

The rumor about the Brewers seems quite credible since Rosenthal mentions two different sources, and the Braves have long had eyes for Corey Hart (though I don't know why). Once John Lackey signs, the market for Lowe may open up, with those teams who lost out on Lackey willing to up their offer to get Lowe. The Braves could still reverse course and choose to deal Javier Vazquez, but for the moment it seems clear that they are focused on moving Lowe and his contract (even if they have to eat part of it).

[UPDATE 8:15pm]

Mr. Rumor Clarification (aka Mark Bowman) was quicker than he normally is in clarifying the above rumor. Here's Bowman:

The Braves see the Brewers as a potential suitor for Derek Lowe. But contrary to a report on FOXSports.com, they have never been interested in trading the veteran sinkerballer in exchange for Brewers outfielder Corey Hart.

Good. I feel the same way about Corey Hart. No thank you. Bowman reiterates an statement he made earlier in the off-season that the Brewers are primarily interested in Javier Vazquez. He also mentions that the Braves have strong interest in trying to match up Lowe with the Angels in a trade.

White Sox Show Their Hand With Teahen Trade

The Cheat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:35:43 -0000

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Two days ago, as the Yankees marched on to yet another purchased World Series title, the White Sox appeared like they could take any number of routes to fill out their '10 lineup. I had planned on writing an SSS Official Off-Season Plan as I have in the past -- quick synopsis: upgrade IF defense by negotiating with the devil. Buy Adrian Beltre, shift the left side of the infield one space right. Find a cheap scrapheap corner outfielder. I was thinking Xavier Nady (also a Boras client) and re-up with Jim Thome -- but Kenny Williams had other ideas, wasting no time in reshaping the '10 roster.

Jettisoned (for sure): Jermaine Dye, Josh Fields, Chris Getz; (maybe): Scott Podsednik (I'm never going to write off his return)

Returning: Mark Kotsay

Newcomer: Mark Teahen

We basically knew all those moves Thursday morning, but it still wasn't apparent how the Sox would use Teahen. My own thought was that it would mean an end to our years of having a lumbering, full-time DH on the roster. In that scenario, Teahen would have played 3B/OF and Pods probably would have been back as well, rotating with any number of players through the DH spot. But Kenny erased that notion by naming Teahen the White Sox 3rd baseman of the immediate future.

What does it all mean for the '10 roster?

The moves leave the Sox with two obvious holes at Designated Hitter and a corner outfield spot. DH is unlikely to be filled anytime soon, as the Sox don't have much to spend and the bottom has fallen out of the defensively-challenged hitter market in recent years. It's likely that the Sox will go bargain hunting as the calendar turns to February, with Williams not ruling out bringing back Jim Thome or even Dye.

"I don't think you can rule it out because it's a long offseason," said Williams, adding he might not fill the designated hitter role until the latter part of the winter. "We just got started. Everyone knows I think the world of this guy."

The remaining corner outfield spot is a bit trickier. The Sox stand with about $90M committed to their players making above the league minimum (arbitration figures estimated), and an operating budget that figures to come in under $100M. It's unlikely that they can bring in adequate talent at those two premium offensive positions on the open market for less than $10M. This means a trade, of course, is on the horizon; and Bobby Jenks seems like the most likely to leave.

Phil Rogers seems eager to remove Paul Konerko's $12M contract, though he never provides a team willing to take on that contract, or how the Sox will replace his production.

No, I suspect Jenks-for-an-outfielder will be the rumor of the off-season; and it's already started courtesy Joe Cowley with a Jenks and Jordan Danks for Carl Crawford postulation on 670 the score. We'll have plenty of time to discuss these rumors over the winter.

For now, let's take a look at what it means for the Sox as they stand currently:

Beckham moves to 2nd -- In my unpublished off-season plan, I wanted to move Beckham off third not because I didn't think he could play there, but because I thought it was the best way to upgrade both offense and defense at the same time. I don't particularly care which infield spot he gets moved to. Alexei Ramirez committed a number of errors and short, yes; and he was a bit of an adventure turning the double play. But he was solid, and overall a reliable glove in the field.

I learned after the 2000 season not to get upset at an adequate shortstop who draws the ire of radio call-in guests with some high profile errors. Every shortstop makes errors, and most of them are of the 'bad' variety. Alexei is no different than any host of major league shortstops. He was the definition of average defensively. He was merely frustrating because he showed plus range and the ability to make some spectacular plays, but negated it by making the occasional annoyingly lackadaisical error, which he seemed to correct as the season wore on. (He was probably one of the top 5 defensive SS in baseball in the second half). I'll take my chances that he's more the second-half Alexei than first-half.

So Beckham moves to second base, a position that would seem to be more natural for him, and his predicted destination since being drafted in '08. He should have no trouble making the transition, as we saw him make considerable progress at 3B over the course of the season. My only complaint is that if the Sox had this in mind, there was no reason not to be playing Beckham at 2B over the last month of the season when the Sox were clearly out of the AL central race.

As for Teahen at third, um, yeah, that's another story. He's bad defensively. Not quite Josh Fields bad, but close enough that he shouldn't be considered a first option, and isn't the type of player who pushes a franchise player like Beckham to another position.

Offensively, Teahen is living off his reputation from a breakout '06 season when he put up and ISO of .225. In the three years since, he's averaged an ISO of about .135. He has the glove of Mark Reynolds, and the bat of Pedro Feliz.

Watching Teahen bat against the White Sox in recent years, you might get the impression that he was a speedy baserunner, as I seem to recall two separate inside-the-park homeruns. And while he did use Kauffman's expansive outfield to pile up 23 triples in his first 4 seasons, he managed only 1 last season. Diving into the Bill James Handbook, Teahen is listed as having a negative impact on the bases last year due to his ability to run into key outs. James also has a measure called Manufactured Runs Created, a measure of the little things (bunts, steals, sac flies, etc.) impact on creating runs. In this category, Teahen ranked among the Royals top 3 at 16 MRC. But the Royals ranked last in the league, and Teahen appears to be marginally above average here. (A full data set was not provided, and I'm not going to draw any conclusions based on a year of data.)

Teahen's only under contract for a year, and, thanks to the $2M from the Royals, should only cost the Sox about $2.5M. So maybe he's just a stop-gap, future utility guy, and the Sox have supreme confidence in their 3B depth (Retherford, Viciedo, Morel).

So what did the Sox gain by adding Teahen? Not much in my view. They didn't give up anything of value. Chris Getz is the best player they gave up, and he might be able to post some league average production at his peak (if he can stay healthy).

Overall, it was the right idea -- getting a 3B to move Beckham to a more natural position -- but Teahen is the wrong player to take the Sox to the next level.

Rosterbation-Mania!

U-God — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play for the White Sox next year. Esteban, please put your hand down. Seriously though, Esteban, you aren't welcome. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Over the past couple days, and inspired by the infamous U.S.S. Mariner post and the on-going reader input over at Sox Machine, I've been putting together my off-season plan. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible (no video game trades), especially in terms of payroll. Feel encouraged to leave your own roster plans in the comments section. U-God's 2010 plan lies after the jump.

Free Agent Acquistions:

DH- Nick Johnson, 1 year/5.5 mil

I love Jim Thome and always will. He is my back-up plan. With that being said, I would be thrilled if KW went out and got Nick Johnson. The 31 year old lefty has a career .849 OPS fueled largely by his .402 career OBP. Johnson also allows us to rotate Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin in at DH as well. He does come with injury-risks, but using him mainly as a DH in combination with one of the premier medical staffs in baseball should counteract that. The injury risk combined with the down market should allow the Sox to grab him at a reasonable price for a year.

RF- Marlon Byrd, 1 year/4.5 mil

Byrd would be a very refreshing change of pace out in rightfield. He has posted an OPS above .800 each year since joining the American League and has been an above-average defender in right as well. His career high 20 homers last year will guarentee him a raise, though probably a modest one. Byrd also provides a nice stop-gap for our outfield prospects.

C- Brian Schneider, 1 year/1.5 mil

Schneider's days as a starter are over. He's a lefty-catcher who has had good success stopping opponent's run games (38 CS%). Being a backup drops his price tag and lowers his risk of getting hurt again.

1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, 1 year/1.5 mil

Bring him back. He was good after we traded for him and gives Ozzie more flexibility with his bench and lineups.

Contract Extension:

Offer John Danks the Jon Lester deal (5 years/30 mil). It's a back-loaded contract that buys out John's arbitration years and allows him to hit free agency at age 31. It may take more money to lock him up, but for simplicity's sake, I'm just going to use the Lester deal.

Batting Order:

DH- Nick Johnson, 3B- Gordon Beckham, LF- Carlos Quentin, 1B- Paul Konerko, C- A.J. Pierzynski, CF- Alex Rios, RF- Marlon Byrd, SS- Alexei Ramirez, 2B- Chris Getz.

That OBP in front of Beckham gives me dirty thoughts.

Bench:

C- Brian Schneider, 1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, UTIL- Jayson Nix, OF- Alejandro De Aza

Nix gives pop off the bench and De Aza gives Ozzie a speedy pinch-runner for late in the game.

Starting Rotation:

Jake Peavy-RHP, Mark Buehrle-LHP, Gavin Floyd-RHP, John Danks-LHP, Freddy Garcia-RHP

I like the idea of having Peavy and Garcia pitch back to back.

Bullpen:

Bobby Jenks-CL, Matt Thornton-LHP, Scott Linebrink-RHP, DJ Carrasco-RHP, Tony Peña-RHP, Jhonny Nuñez-RHP, Randy Williams-LHP

I wanted to trade Jenks, but his value is too low right now and I don't want a repeat of the Nick Swisher trade.

Other Costs:

$1 mil buy-out for Jermaine Dye

$.35 mil for Mike MacDougal, damn him

Team Payroll:

$96.65 mil, only .55 higher than last season's opening salary. All figures (except my FAs and arbitration guesstimates) taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

2010 Bill James Projections: White Sox Hitters

The Cheat — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:20:08 -0000

The good people at ACTA Sports provided me a sneak preview at the 2010 Bill James projections, which will be made available the public the the 2010 Bill James Handbook (available next week).

James tends to have the most optimistic projections of any of the major forecasters, specifically for young players (read: unestablished players, i.e. Flowers)

2010 Bill James' Projections

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Gordon Beckham	155	567	93	166	44	1	21	96	59	89	10	5	.288	.360	.477
Jermaine Dye	152	571	85	149	30	1	30	92	57	123	2	1	.261	.333	.480
Tyler Flowers	67	243	40	75	17	1	12	32	32	85	2	1	.275	.353	.476
Chris Getz	99	364	49	98	16	2	4	33	36	55	20	6	.269	.340	.357
Paul Konerko	148	539	74	143	27	0	29	90	67	96	1	0	.265	.354	.477
Jayson Nix	90	247	33	60	13	0	8	27	21	49	9	3	.243	.307	.393
A.J. Pierzynski	140	527	61	149	28	1	14	62	24	64	1	1	.283	.323	.419
Scott Podsednik	110	324	45	89	17	2	3	26	29	50	17	8	.275	.340	.367
Carlos Quentin	146	542	92	147	36	2	30	97	59	77	5	2	.271	.356	.511
Alexei Ramirez	147	527	75	150	19	2	18	78	42	58	12	6	.285	.339	.431
Alex Rios	149	564	79	157	36	5	16	73	41	102	21	7	.278	.332	.445
Jim Thome	132	441	73	108	20	0	29	84	88	146	0	0	.245	.374	.488

The Sox will be in very good shape next year if they get that type of production from Quentin and Rios.

The Top 5 White Sox Games of 2009

U-God — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:49:39 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

The Savior wonders if his accomplishments will appear in the list of the season's best games. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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While the White Sox didn't make the playoffs this year (or finish above .500 for that matter), it never really felt like a chore to watch (at least to me) like 2007 did. Once the season ended (and this lull between playoff rounds began), I started thinking about what games were the best ones from this season. Some caveats: I only went with games we won. I personally don't care much for losses and didn't feel like putting any close, but last second losses in my top 5. Also, this is a pretty subjective exercise, so I don't expect everyone to agree with my choices. Feel free to post your choices in the comments. With that being said, the top 5 games from the 2009 season are after the jump.

5. May 25, @LAA SOX: 17, LAA: 3

The main reason this game makes the cut is the 17 runs were the most the Sox had scored in a game since June 20, 2006. Every starter had a hit, with the Thome, Konerko, and Dye all going yard. The team scored 14 runs through the first five innings, and were only blanked in the sixth and the eighth. The only reason it isn't ranked higher is the game was over by the second inning.

4. April 7, vs. KC SOX: 4, KC:2

Ah, Opening Day. The holiest of all national holidays. We had to wait longer than usual due to a snowout, but the payoff was well worth it. Things looked pretty grim going into the eighth inning, when the worst manager in the AL Central brought in the beloved Kyle Farnsworth. Every now and then, you feel like the baseball game is scripted. When Jim Thome stepped up with two runners on and two outs, it felt like everyone watching knew what would happen next. The season had so much promise back then.

3. April 13, @ DET SOX: 10, DET: 6

While the game itself was fairly unspectacular, the second inning alone insured that it would appear on this list. Leading off, Jermaine Dye would take Zach Miner deep to left-center at 12:23 P.M. for his 300th career homerun. Exactly three minutes later, Paul Konerko would blast one past the left field fence for his 300th as well. This marked the first time in MLB history that two teammates had hit century milestone homeruns back to back. The White Sox even had 7,000 little commemerative figures with a base made to honor the accomplishment (number 4,036 sits proudly on my desk). A normal enough game, but the history makes it pretty special in my eyes.

2. June 27, vs. CHC SOX: 8, CHC: 7

The complete opposite of a pitcher's duel, but an incredibly fun back-and-forth battle throughout gets this game the number two spot on the list. The lead changed hands four times before the Pale Hose tied it up in the eighth on an Alexei Ramirez single. I still remember sitting in left field with my current roommate Dan and wanting the game to come down to Gordon Beckham. Whatever deities may be decided to answer my prayers. With Josh Fields on second and Jayson Nix on first, Gordon Beckham stepped in with two outs. Jose Ascanio's first pitch the the rookie would be crushed into the rightfield gap for our young savior's first walk off hit in the bigs. There was something magical about hearing "Your Love" played before any other victory song.

1. July 23, vs. TB SOX: 5, TB: 0

Was there ever any doubt what game was going to get number one? There have been better articles written than I could ever hope to create. Everything from Fields' grand slam to Wise's miracle catch was fantastic. Even typing this just give me chills. So I'll stop writing about it. Pictures do more justice than I ever could.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Dynasty/Keeper 1B rankings

Ian, yo — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:14:53 -0000

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Now it's time for the top keepers/dynasty first basemen.

1. Miguel Cabrera- In his first full season in the American League, Miggy put up numbers pretty consistent with his past numbers. Cabrera is still very young and can have many many more years with these types of numbers. Currently ranking 4th on the ESPN player rater and top five overall in Yahoo leagues, Cabrera and his high average, 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI's should be a very consistent 1B for you in the future.

2. Mark Teixeira- Pretty much in the same boat as Cabrera, Teixeira is one of the most consistent players in fantasy baseball. He's widely known for being a slow starter and heats up later in the year but if you're playing in H2H leagues, he's what you're looking for. Currently hitting .292 with 37 HR and 118 RBI, and hitting in the Yankee jetstream, Teixiera could easily move to the top of this list.

3. Justin Morneau- Morneau was shut down near the end of the season with a stress fracture in his lower back and managed to put up a season rivaling other power first basemen in the AL. If you're looking for a consistent player to give you power numbers, he can be your guy. Coming off the injury could drop his value a bit in the offseason so if you plan on trading him, make sure you're getting fair value (healthy value.)

4. Kevin Youkilis- Youk missed a little time this season and still put up stats close to the players after him in this list. If Youk can have a full healthy season, we're looking at a season with a little less power than Teixeira and Cabrera, but should put up RBIs, runs and average. If you're in leagues that count OBP or OPS, Youk will be a straight up stud, putting up a .900+ OPS in his last two seasons.

5. Kendry Morales- Morales had a break out year in his first season as the Angel's 1B keeping with the 30/100 theme here. Morales is 2/7 in stolen base attempts and while playing on the Angels, you probably won't see those attempts go away next year. Maybe if you're lucky he grab you a few more steals, but those will just come as a bonus anyways.

6. Carlos Pena- This is the guy on this list that may get me the most criticism. I'm a huge fan of Pena and think he's very underrated by most based on his low average alone. Now, if Pena didn't miss the last month of the season, you could be looking at a 100/40/100 guy. On the surface, his .227 average is pretty horrendous, but if you check into his BABIP, you'll notice he had a season where he was a bit lower than his career number. Not that it would make a whole world of difference, you've gotta keep it in mind. Next year, Pena could fall in the draft because of his average, but if you can get three solid categories from your 1B, take it and be happy. Just try and draft someone who can give you a bit of an average boost in later rounds. Also, if your league counts OBP or OPS, Pena is your man.

7. Victor Martinez- V-Mart is a strong candidate to win the MLB Comeback Player of the Year in 2009. Martinez has put up numbers comparable to his previous seasons (minus his injury ridden 2008 season.) Martinez will have catcher eligibility again in 2010, but would still be a very valuable 1B in AL only leagues. While Martinez has hit only one home run in Fenway Park, he will be playing many games in Yankee Stadium (where he's hit four home runs in 37 ABs.) and in an offense as potent as Boston's, should remain a very good fantasy producer.

8. Michael Cuddyer- With Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young struggling in Minnesota, Cuddyer's put up a career year. While he's only hit 20 or more home runs one in his career (discounting 2009) he did hit 24 in 2006 and has shown the ability to hit for power. If you're looking for a guy who can get you anywhere from 20-30 HR and not kill you on average, Cuddyer is your man.

9. Billy Butler- Butler is finally having that breakout season everyone's been hoping for. Butler is only 23 years old and has put up a 20 home run, 90+ RBI season while hitting .300 on a poor offense. If Butler keeps improving as he's done over the last three years, we could be seeing another Victor Martinez, with less RBI's of course.

10. Paul Konerko- I was debating on whether or not to have Russell Branyan or Konerko as the last man on this list and decided that since Branyan is a free agent and has missed significant time with a back injury, I'd have Konerko round the list out. While Konerko is not nearly as successful as he was in his prime, he's still putting up close to 30 home runs with a decent RBI total and average. Konerko's BB% has dropped compared to the last two years, so if he makes a correction, we could be looking at even better numbers. Just keep in mind that he's 33 years old and will turn 34 before the 2010 season.

Tuesday Morning Links

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 14:40:37 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

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A handful of links for you guys this morning. Enjoy:

In the hours after the Astros fired Cecil Cooper, someone tossed around the idea of making a blockbuster move: bringing in a former Astro to appease Astros fans, frustrated with recent front office moves. Names like Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and even Dodgers catcher Brad Ausmus were tossed around. The Astros need a familiar face, an experienced coach or manager, if they want to start to turn things around.
The White Sox may try to unload first baseman Paul Konerko this offseason. Konerko has a full no-trade clause, but said he would be willing to waive it for the right deal. Konerko is hitting .281 this season with 27 home runs, and a team in need of a DH or first baseman would benefit from those kind of numbers. Konerko will make 12 million dollars in 2010, so the White Sox would have to absorb some of that if they want to entice a team like the Athletics. The Orioles, Pirates, and Mets are also options.
Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder will undergo back surgery Wednesday, but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. There was some speculation that the Dbacks would try to move Snyder this offseason to make way for Miguel Montero, who is hitting an impressive .295 with 14 home runs. They will likely have to wait now.
Gary Sheffield is coming back for one more year, and is going to spend this offseason getting in the best shape of his recent career. He hopes to play in at least 150 games. If the Mets don't resign him, then he hopes to hear from the Marlins, Rays, Astros, or Rangers. I'm sure he'd bite at any other opportunity that came his way.
Twins third baseman Joe Crede is set to undergo his third back surgery, another frustrating bump in the road for him. Crede wants to continue playing, hopefully for the Twins next season, but doesn't seem to open to more back surgeries beyond his upcoming one. Crede hit .255 with 15 homeruns, but could he nearing the end of his career if he can't stay healthy?

Translating Minor League Performance: A Wonderful Tool

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:00:16 -0000

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Preston Mattingly of the Class A Inland Empire 66ers hits against the High Desert Mavericks in June.

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The jump from the minor leagues to the major leagues is difficult to predict, at least on an individual level. Evaluating minor league performance requires context, and the better organizations are great at it.

Dan Szymborski has provided baseball fans with a labor of love. Szymborski, who is the Transaction Oracle for Baseball Think Factory, has delved into the data, and calculated the Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for every minor league season dating back to 1978. Using park and league factors, Szymborski was able to translate these minor league seasons into an estimate of what would have happened in the major leagues. These are extremely useful in identifying some overrated seasons, or some that have flown under the radar.

Translating MLEs is not an exact science. Kevin Johnson of Seamheads.com had as good an explanation as any of why MLEs are useful:

Of course, creating MLEs at all is a bit of a fool’s errand. We can’t really know how any player would have played in a different environment, especially one that is drastically different regarding its level of competition. Some players can adapt and adjust their playing when faced with different settings, and some have difficulty. Nevertheless, it can be a fun and enlightening exercise. For current baseball players, MLEs can also be used to build predictive models of future play results. This is really what James had in mind — a way to use past non-major league data to predict future major league performance of young players by converting that non-major league data into data that would approximate MLB level play, then use that data along with any MLB historical data on the player to give a greater sample size on which to make predictions.

Here are some notable minor league seasons in the last three decades of Dodger minor league baseball.

Mike Marshall, 1981 Albuquerque Dukes

	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	34	137	.373	.445	.675	1.120
MLE	24	88	.278	.336	.476	.812

The 21-year old Marshall put up one of the most storied seasons in Dodgers' minor league history, and had an enormous amount of expectations heaped upon him. However, Albuquerque is a town a mile above sea level, with one of the most hitter friendly environments in baseball. Marshall had a nice career as a Dodger -- over 900 games with a 117 OPS+ -- but he is largely viewed as a disappointment. I have to think if that 1981 season was viewed in proper context, Marshall wouldn't have suffered under the weight of unrealistic expectations.

Sid Fernandez, 1983 San Antonio Dodgers

	IP	W-L	BB/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
Actual Stats	153	13-4	5.6	12.3	2.82	1.353
MLE	148	10-7	5.7	9.3	3.59	1.453

Not bad for a 20-year old in Double A. The Dodgers thought so highly of Fernandez that they traded him with Ross Jones for Bob Bailor and Carlos Diaz.

Ramon Martinez, 1989 Albuquerque DukesAlbuquerque Dukes

	IP	W-L	BB/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
Actual Stats	113	10-2	4.0	10.1	2.79	1.257
MLE	110	7-5	4.2	7.6	3.35	1.327

The 21-year old Martinez also had 15 starts at the major league level in 1989, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.216 WHIP, an improvement on what his minor league numbers earlier in the season suggested. Martinez would win 20 games the next season, still the last season a Dodger pitcher has won 20 games.

Paul Konerko, 1997 Albuquerque Dukes

	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	37	127	.323	.407	.621	1.028
MLE	23	88	.273	.345	.460	.805

The 21-year old Konerko produced similar stats to the Dodgers' incumbent first baseman, Eric Karros, who hit .266/.329/.459 with 31 home runs and 104 RBI.

Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 2008 Jacksonville Suns

	R	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	91	76	.324	.419	.423	.843
MLE	80	58	.268	.348	.357	.705

That on-base percentage as a 21-year old was plenty reason to be excited about DeJesus's potential. His broken leg set back his development, but the talent is still there. He is still a big part of the Dodgers' future.

There are plenty of seasons to find. Be sure to click through to Baseball Think Factory if you want to download the Excel files with all the glorious data.

Lester Comes Through, BoSox Roll ChiSox 6-1

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:41:21 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

It's always nice when you have to choose whether it was the dominant pitching or productive offense that was the story of the game. Let's go with pitching for now. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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After dropping the first two games of the series by a combined score of 17-3, the Sox looked to Jon Lester to play the role of stopper--a role he filled perfectly. After allowing a single and a walk to the first two Chicago batters, Lester induced a bloop fly ball which Dustin Pedroia made a fantastic play on, doubling Scott Podsednik off of second and averting a first-inning disaster. After that, he was nearly untouchable, allowing only 3 hits and a walk in 7 scoreless innings, throwing 122 pitches.

The offense showed some life through the first 3 innings, but didn't score until the 4th when Jason Bay singled and Mike Lowell homered to left on a John Danks fastball. Another Bay single would plate Jacoby Ellsbury for a 3rd run in the 5th.

The White Sox would cut the lead to 2 runs in the 8th as Billy Wagner allowed his first earned run with the Red Sox on an absolute bomb by Ramon Castro. He would retire the next 2 batters before Bard came in and struck out Paul Konerko on 3 pitches.

Victor Martinez put the game out of reach, hitting a 3-run homer off of Octavio Dotel. Jonathan Papelbon gave up only a single in the 9th in closing out the game.

The Sox will look to earn a series split as they send a struggling Josh Beckett to the mound against "Mr. Perfect" Mark Buerhle. Buerhle has been hittable of late, giving up 35 hits over his last 23 innings, but has managed to avoid too much damage.