SB Nation - John Parrish

37 comments on 37 pitchers in camp for the Orioles

SC — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:02:30 -0000

The Sun and Jeff Zrebiec had this idea, and they did it with a photo gallery and tiny, barely-viewable short comments about all the pitchers. I liked the idea so much that I'm stealing it and hoping to add a little more in terms of commentary. What can I say? I like to talk.

Matt Albers, RH

Albers put up a 3.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 49 innings for the O's last season before coming up injured (like fellow former Astro Troy Patton) and deciding to forgo surgery in favor of rehabbing, which often leads to...surgery. But he wasn't a blue chip guy to begin with. His three starts were tolerable last season but he looked better out of the bullpen, which is where he probably projects long-term. Likely not a real factor in 2009, but here's hoping we see Fat Albers back on the field at some point.

Jake Arrieta, RH

If you want to be a super sleuth and dig around the site, you'll be able to find out I was jacked, geeked, psyched and pumped when the O's opened up their wallets to sign Arrieta as a fifth round draft pick out of TCU. Arrieta and Wieters in the same class? Zwaaa!

In fact, I might be one of Arrieta's biggest fans. His W-L record means nothing and isn't impressive (6-5 at Frederick), but he was outstanding in his first pro season, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.56 K/9 rate for the Keys. I currently rate Arrieta as our third-best prospect behind Wieters and Tillman, but readily admit Matusz should probably be No. 2 or at least No. 3.

Still, we're talking about three guys that could be long-term parts of the rotation relatively soon. Arrieta has college polish, as does Matusz, and Tillman is rocketing through the minors. Dude still can't drink legally.

I don't want to get all Four Aces or Generation K about it (since those didn't turn out so hot), but man...MAN!

(And because you have to have it.)

More important than all the good numbers and promise re: Arrieta is the fact that Stacey thinks he's hot.

Danys Baez, RH

Let's cut the crap: Danys Baez was a rotten signing when the Orioles got him and he's turned out even worse than you could have imagined. 2007 was a disaster, and in 2008 he did the fans a favor and didn't pitch. That might sound mean, and it's not like I want him to be injured, but in the long run I probably lost less hair for it, so thanks, Danys. Talks of him starting have gone by the wayside. I really don't think we're going to see much at all of Baez this season. If he stinks, they're just going to get rid of him.

Brian Bass, RH

One of a million dudes who might win a rotation spot. Bass, now 27, has been in pro ball since 2000. He made it to The Show in 2008 with the Twins, appearing as a reliever on 44 occasions, and then was traded to the O's where he started four games because that was the state of the '08 Orioles. "Got an arm?" "Like, a good one?" "No, just an arm! We need it!" Bass' career minor league ERA is 4.32 and he doesn't strike anyone out. He does have good control, so that's something. At least he'll throw strikes.

Brad Bergesen, RH

Bergesen's '08 cracked a lot of O's prospect lists, including ours at No. 14. He went 15-6 with a 3.22/1.15 line at Bowie. He lives on a ridiculously fine line, though, with his 4.38 K/9. He has to kind of be perfect. In a perfect world he could be our Justin Duchscherer.

Alberto Castillo, LH

Strengths: Throws with left hand. Once a third round draft choice of the Giants.

Weaknesses: That draft was in 1994. Castillo's career:

June 2, 1994: Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 3rd round of the 1994 amateur draft.

November 11, 1997: Traded by the San Francisco Giants with Chris Singleton to the New York Yankees for Charlie Hayes and cash.

January 26, 1999: Released by the New York Yankees.

February 16, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

March 28, 1999: Released by the Chicago White Sox.

February 29, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Diego Padres.

March 31, 2000: Released by the San Diego Padres.

December 17, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 7, 2002: Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

January 15, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the St. Louis Cardinals.

March 30, 2003: Released by the St. Louis Cardinals.

January 28, 2008: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

So, y'know. He's "32," which in Cuban years could mean he's 41, and it took him almost 15 years to reach the majors. His ERA (3.81) is a mirage. If they're relying on him, bad things gon' happen. They likely are not.

Scott Chiasson, RH

Chiasson is 31 now, a Connecticut native that played college ball at Eastern Connecticut State, whatever in the hell that is. Being from a large state, I can't imagine really considering the road trip that takes one from "eastern" Connecticut to "western" Connecticut. Eastern to western Michigan is a three and a half hour trip by interstate.

Chiasson is one of a million former Cubs from the MacPhail era that has managed a way into the O's system. He was originally drafted by the Royals in 1998, then traded to the A's as a PTBNL for Jay Witasick (former Oriole, sort of). The Cubs nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft in December 2000 and he got cups of coffee in '01 and '02. He's just a body.

Fredy Deza, RH

6'2" and stick-thin. The Sun lists his 2.25 ERA at Norfolk, which came over a grand eight innings of work. He turned 26 in December and has been pitching Orioles A-ball forever. They seem to have officially given up on him as a starter the last few years.

DEEEEEZ...

Jeremy Guthrie, RH

He's the ace. He's not the world's best ace, but he's our ace, damn it. Truthfully, the world will be awesome if Guthrie is the fourth starter in 2010 or 2011. I say that with all love for Guts. When I did the Hardball Times preview, I noted that Guthrie is a guy who's always going to be projected to tail off from numbers like he's put up the last two years, and I really believe he's got more of the last two years in him, and that it's not really a fluke. He's just a good, solid pitcher.

During the NBA All-Star Weekend, I watched the three-point contest, which was horrendous because Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller are like having Tim McCarver and Thom Brennaman in the same booth. When Danny Granger was up, Kenny must have said "he's a scorer not a shooter" 17 times. Guthrie's a pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower. A pitcher not a thrower.

Kenny later predicted that none of the three remaining guys in the tournament could win.

Mark Hendrickson, LH

Hendo hasn't even thrown a pitch as a Baltimore Oriole and he's been ripped here plenty. Not by me -- I'm all for letting him stink first. And he will stink. Speaking of basketball, this dude's a failed basketball player. He's 6'9" and can't strike anyone out. The good news is he also doesn't walk many guys and does have minor value as a swingman. The bad news is he's 35 and was horrible last season in Florida.

Brad Hennessey, RH

Once, long ago, Hennessey was a Giants prospect. He's now a failed Giants prospect on board with the Orioles, and he'll be starting the first game of the spring against the Mets. That happens TODAY! WOO!

Hennessey is a Toledo native that attended Youngstown State (the penguin school where that damned Jim Tressel coached before he took over at Vomit State).

He was pretty effective in 2007 as a fill-in closer for the Giants, saving 19 games and putting up a 3.42 ERA. But the fact is the Giants lost all faith in him a while ago. At 29, time's a-wastin' and it's either on the train or off. The Orioles are going to give him a shot, and they have no reason to not. It's a noble move. Former prospect, has shown he can pitch in the majors (if briefly), and still young enough to wring some good years. If he doesn't make it, big whoop. If he does, he could be Guthrie Part II, a super cheap pickup that flamed out elsewhere and latched on here. No harm no foul either way.

David Hernandez, RH

Now univerally considered one of our ten best prospects, and yet still sort of a sleeper guy thanks to his surroundings in the arms department. Common sense says that eventually bats catch up to his fastball-slider combo since he's not Randy Johnson or anything, and that a relief role may best suit him. I mean, that's said basically all the time, but it bears repeating just because it's true. It's logic. It's hard to get by on two pitches as a major league starter. Still, he was excellent at Bowie last season and surpassed expectations.

Rich Hill, LH

MacPhail Salvation Project No. 39. If Rich Hill needed a change of scenery, he's got it. If his physical problems are corrected, there's a LOT of upside. If it's mental, that's a tough game to win. He's wilder than all hell, but now there's almost no pressure on him. I think we as O's fans do deserve credit for patience. It took a long time for most of y'all to start railing on Daniel Cabrera as hard as I did from 2006 on, and he'd damn sure earned it.

I don't think any of us expect the moon of Hill, and I assure him should he happen to ever somehow stumble upon it, we're all rootin' for ya, dude. Welcome to Baltimore. Feel free to get comfortable and relax.

Jim Hoey, RH

Have never been a fan. Knew dudes that looked like Jim Hoey in high school. They were all goobers. Straight-up goobers. That's not really his fault. I shouldn't be mean. Maybe he's not a goober.

He missed all of 2008 with a shoulder surgery, and that hardly helps his case. Even before that there were a lot of issues.

Jim Johnson, RH

I used to be a massive pro wrestling fan, which we've been over a bunch. I still like the old stuff. I don't remember ever NOT being a pro wrestling fan. I do remember being five years old and begging my grandparents to order WrestleMania III. I couldn't wrap my mind around the fact that pay-per-view just was not available in our area at the time. On I went with life.

Anyway, signs in the crowd became a big deal in the late 1990s, and one of my favorite signs ever was very simple: "STING YOUR COOL." If I ever went to see Jim Johnson, I'd take a sign that said, "JIM YOUR COOL."

My favorite sign ever, by the way, was "RAY TRAYLOR IS MY FAVORITE PROFESSIONAL WRESTLER." Either that or "I LIKE CURT HENNIG."

Jim is cool. Projections have a hard time taking into account sinkerballers sometimes, plus Jim's track record is short. But he was excellent setting up Sherrill last year and there's really no reason he shouldn't be competing for a rotation spot or the closer's role. I've got nothing against George Sherrill or Chris Ray, but I think I can say that at this moment, I'd be more comfortable with Big Jim in the ninth.

Ryan Keefer, RH

Instead of assessing Keefer's chances, I'll just post the Sun's stock photo of him, because he looks so gosh darn happy:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Radhames Liz, RH

Liz, like the departed Garrett Olson, crashed and burned in a trial by fire last season in the Orioles rotation. Chances are strong he'll be in the Opening Day starting five because the Orioles have put a lot of stock into him over the last few years, and because he went out and took his lumps like a man last year. I've been saying for about three years he looks like a reliever (and not a particularly great one) to me, but there's more value if he starts, and until he proves he absolutely cannot start in the majors, it's better to start him if he's going to pitch at all at this age. Liz has very mild breakout potential in 2009.

Brian Matusz, LH

The Wieters of pitchers. That's grossly overstating Matusz's prospectdom, but I don't care. I'm rolling with it. You got a problem, dude, meet me after class and we'll hash this s**t out. I don't even care. Let's go!

Bob McCrory, RH

Bob McCrory is the goober that hung around with goobers like Jim Hoey in high school. Jim might've started a couple fights, but Bob usually got in there and took it for him and socked someone in the nose. Bob McCrory looks like he enjoys a good PBR on a warm summer's eve. I like Bob McCrory more than I do Jim Hoey, but I still don't want to hang out with them too often, if you know what I'm sayin'.

Kam Mickolio, RH

Mickolio's biggest obstacle is experience. Real experience. Experience in playing baseball. Not a ton of organized baseball in Montana, where he grew up. He's still a baby in this game. I don't think he'll be amazing, but I do think he'll cut out a regular role for himself in the bullpen by July. He has the best heat in the system, and he also looks like the subject of Honey, I Blew Up Nomar Garciaparra:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Jim Miller, RH

Came over in the Roddy Lopez trade with the Rockies. Anything positive he can do is gravy on top of not having Rodrigo Lopez on the team.

Andy Mitchell, RH

Mitchell's been in the O's system since turning pro in 2001, and he's 30 years old now. He started strictly as a relief pitcher, but the last two seasons has gone swingman in Norfolk, where he'll stay as long as he's employed by the Orioles. In an organization with as many horrible staffs as this one has had since he's been around, Andy's never even gotten an inning for the O's despite a career ERA of 3.59 in 650+ minor league innings. That kind of says it all.

John Parrish, LH

I know I'm half-halfassed analyst and half-doofy fan in this thing, but if you believe one thing I'm saying is genuine, believe this: Pass.

Troy Patton, LH

From the guy I'm furious is back to the guy I'm still stoked to see suit up for our Birds. Patton missed all of 2008 with the dreaded fabrum bear, but he's ready to sling this spring, and I like this dude's attitude. He's like the 13-3 football team that just won the conference championship. "No one said we could do dis! They all said we couldn't do dis!" Nah, dude, I think you can do dis. Go do dat.

David Pauley, RH

Pauley's been workmanlike in the systems of both San Diego and Boston since '01, and last year went 14-4 with Pawtucket. He also pitched 12 1/3 innings for the Red Sox and was lit the hell up for 23 hits and 16 earned runs (11.68 ERA). Oops! Pauley has an outside shot at the rotation, but it's more outside than it might seem given his AAA record last year. He's really nothing special at all, but I quite like the Orioles giving him a shot.

Hayden Penn, RH

True story: I always wanted to name a son Hayden, mostly because of my love for Coach, and also because I didn't think I could convince any woman to let me name a son Luther. My fiancee may allow me to someday name a son Magic Johnson Christ, which I think is kind of awesome. (And before anyone starts, I know she's just humoring me. Let me have my dreams.)

Penn's had one of the damnedest careers you'll ever see, including being impaled, and while it's worth noting that he's not all that old still (he turned 24 last October), I think this is sort of a case of a guy being older than his age, like in boxing when Erik Morales got really old at 28. Too many things happened. Too many wars. I think maybe Penn doesn't just "seem" older, he might figuratively be older than 24.

Wilfrido Perez, RH

A 24-year old relief prospect, Perez put up some nice K-rates in the low levels before tapering off to just under 9 K/9 at Bowie in 23 innings. He absolutely dominated in 81 innings at Delmarva in 2007, posting a 1.67 ERA and striking out 101 batters. He's generally had so-so (at best) WHIP numbers because he doesn't have the best control (it's also not awful) and he's hittable (7 H/9 career).

Chris Ray, RH

Sugar Ray is back in action and will have a shot at taking the closer's job he left behind when he missed all of 2008. He deserves it if he can handle it, because even though he was not dominant, he's going to be better in the role than Sherrill. Again, Johnson might be a much better option than either of them, but he's "never closed before." Not like super veteran Ray or All-Star George.

Dennis Sarfate, RH

He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher. He's a thrower not a pitcher.

George Sherrill, LH

My favorite part of the 2008 Orioles Magic DVD "making of" is when Millar and Sherrill obviously set up an "impromptu" "quick-witted" joke where Millar goes, "George, you look like Vin Diesel," and then Sherrill goes, "Let'sgetsomethinstraight. VinDiesellookslikeme." And it's like, OHHH!

Alfredo Simon, RH

Another guy inching toward 30 with bad minor league numbers that got ripped up in a short stint last year. He's horrible. He has no business on the team. Zrebiec's comment is, "That he managed to stay on the 40-man roster all offseason says something." What? The Orioles forgot about him?

Chorye Spoone, RH

Still rehabbing and won't be healthy to start the year, but in camp anyway. I forget which one of you likes Spoone way more than I do. Show yourself! If he was Tim Spooneybarger's brother, I'd like him more. He was down-and-up even before the injury.

Chris Tillman, RH

Dear Old Seattle Mariners Front Office,

In times of trouble where you've been fired and all that, sometimes it helps to hear from the people whose lives you've touched in a very positive manner. When you traded Chris Tillman, Adam Jones, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler for Erik Bedard, you did something great for us, and we're going to be thankful for many years to come.

We know that Mr. Bedard didn't work out so great for you in 2008 and at least partially led to you all getting thrown out on your behinds, but we Orioles fans wanted you to know that we still have a soft spot for you.

And if you see Eric O'Flaherty, tell him we said hello.

Kindest Regards,

Orioles Fans

Koji Uehara, RH

He is not going to be Daisuke Matsuzaka. The best we can really hope for is he isn't Kei Igawa either. The latter is far, far, far more likely than the former.

Chris Waters, LH

Zrebiec actually pulled the "no one thinks he can do dis!" card in his Waters comment. That's because he probably can't. He had two exceptional starts for the Orioles and treaded on thin ice otherwise.

Jamie Walker, LH

Jamie Waker, Boy, could star as Will Ferrell's impersonation of George W. Bush in a movie:

via www.baltimoresun.com

Walker is so close to the end of his line that it might be really painful to watch him unless he's pulled some rabbit out of the hat after last year. When guys whose fastballs are offspeed pitches start to fail, it's usually pretty gruesome. He was lobbing BP last year.

Ross Wolf, RH

Former Marlin. Probably here because Kranitz knows him.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 15:02:28 -0000

Some things to read while searching for top shelf material.

The biggest news from yesterday is the trade sending Eric Fryer to the Yankees for Chase Wright. Finally, a little depth has been added for the starting rotation. Tom H. has quotes from management on what they see/expect from Wright, and there's reason to believe he can contribute. Both The Grand National Championships and View From Bernie's Chalet like the move.

Also noted in the Tom H. link above: The Brewers signed Ramiro Mendoza to a minor league deal. Mendoza hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, but posted a sub-2.00 ERA in Venezuela this winter and will pitch for Panama in the World Baseball Classic. All told, he's probably ticketed for AAA, but he's another veteran with starting experience, so worse moves have been made.

If you didn't catch Jeff's post from last night on starting pitching depth, scroll down, read it now, and come back to the Mug later. I'd rather have Odalis Perez, but Bernie's Crew thinks the Brewers should have pursued John Parrish.

Meanwhile, Corey Hart's arbitration hearing continues to creep closer. Pocket Doppler thinks a lot of Brewer fans are reacting negatively to Hart because of his comments in September on fans booing. This quote, which has been making the rounds lately but I most recently mentioned in Saturday's post on Hart, is a much bigger source of concern for me:

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We’re trying to see pitches and see what we can do. … I’m not going to sit there and walk, though. I’ll eventually find it, and hopefully we’ll still be in it." -Corey Hart

With 286 votes in, 23% of readers share my concern - that Hart's lack of plate discipline has led pitchers to figure him out. 30% think he'll post an OBP around .300 again in 2009. Hart's demands are a pretty steep price to pay for a guy who projects at that level.

Just one minor note today: Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel made USA Today's list of 100 players you should know coming into 2009.

If you read the Mug frequently, you've probably guessed that I wish the Brewers still had Gabe Gross. If you share that sentiment, you can re-live his last game as a Brewer tomorrow on MLB.com.

I'm reluctant to even bring it up, because even he admits it's not worth my time, but The Furious Wedge has responded to some of the commenters from his prediction post I linked on Tuesday. I won't burn too much time on it, except for this quote regarding Tony Gwynn:

I've watched A LOT of baseball. I've seen Tony Gwynn about 6 times and every time, he was, to me, clearly one of the two best players on the field.

Clearly, this is the biggest possible indictment of the 2008 Nashville Sounds.

Is a story still news when it happens every day? Jon Heyman is reporting a previously unmentioned team has interest in a Scott Boras client. In this case, it's the Rangers and Andruw Jones. Lone Star Ball lists the reasons why this move would make no sense for the Rangers. Earlier this week, Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts discussed the relationship between Boras and Heyman.

On the hot stove:

Blue Jays: Claimed LHP Brian Burres off waivers from the Orioles.
Padres: Have reportedly agreed to terms with Cliff Floyd.
Rangers: MLB.com beat reporter TR Sullivan doesn't expect the team to sign Ben Sheets.
Rockies: Acquired Matt Murton from the A's for minor league infielder Corey Wimberly. They're also reportedly out of the running for Joe Beimel and Braden Looper.

If you've been following the links to FanGraphs the last couple of days, you've probably seen estimations that replacement level catchers, first basemen, second basemen and shortstops all fall somewhere between 1.5 and 2 wins below average. Today, we have third base (-1.5 wins) and left field (-2 wins), and they both fall into the same range.

Even in this market, apparently a bad contract is available to those who will look for it: Driveline Mechanics thinks the Mets made a mistake giving 3 years, $36 million to Oliver Perez.

As I've mentioned before, I live in Iowa, well out of the range of FSN Wisconsin but still within the Brewers' "local market," so I haven't been able to watch a national broadcast of a Brewer game at home for several seasons, just games with the Cardinals and the occasional Cub game on WGN. I had high hopes for plans to rework the blackout policy this winter, but the movement to do so has been tabled indefinitely. Thank you, Major League Baseball, for one again making it harder for me to watch your product.

On a somewhat related note: Tangotiger wants to know what you think Bud Selig should make. There are two interesting points being made in the discussion: First, Selig is effectively the CEO of a corporation worth over $15 billion dollars. But, secondly, there are probably also a fair number of people out there who would gladly take his job for less money and perform at his level. Some might be significantly better.

Of course, Selig is nowhere near the top of the charts in the running for worst person ever: Former Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos, currently facing charges for two murders stemming from a hit-and-run accident, allegedly tried to shoot another player yesterday in response to a dispute over a game of dominoes. Joe Posnanski tells a related story about Burgos' departure from Kansas City.

Things are looking up for the Washington Nationals, but only because they couldn't go any farther down: In October the Nationals were given 300:1 odds to win the 2009 World Series. Yesterday, those odds were upgraded to 150:1. (The Brewers, by the way, are 35:1.)

Finally, as a former organizer who certainly managed his share of failed events (hence the former), I still occasionally have nightmares that go something like this one: The Marlins held an event on day 1 of their Winter Caravan, and no one came.

Drink up.

Parrish Spurns Detroit for Baltimore

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:00:13 -0000

With the signing of Brandon Lyon, the Detroit Tigers have presumably rounded out their bullpen for 2009. Yet apparently, there was still some question as to whether or not a mediocre left-hander could be added to the relief corps. At least that's what I'm assuming, since the news of John Parrish signing with Baltimore appears to be, well, news among the Tigers beat crew.

Yes, that's right. If you didn't already know, hopefully you're sitting down as you read this. Parrish, whose notable quality seemed to be that he was "a less expensive option than Joe Beimel" is opting for crab cakes over Coneys. Inner Harbor over Hart Plaza. The Orioles' minor league deal over a similar offer from the Tigers.

On a more serious note, Parrish may have chosen Baltimore for a chance to compete for a job in the starting rotation (where Buster Olney sees an opening), as opposed to the relief role he likely would've had in Detroit. As a starter with the Blue Jays' Triple-A team last season, Parrish posted a 10-1 record and 2.97 ERA in 13 starts. (In the majors, he was 1-1 with a 5.10 ERA in six starts.)

No word as to whether the Tigers still intend to pursue another lefty for their bullpen, or if they're content to let Clay Rapada and Kyle Bloom fight it out for that second southpaw role behind Bobby Seay. (And I think that's the first time I've ever used the term "southpaw" here, which I'm going to consider a triumph.)

The Quest For Relief Might Settle For Scraps

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:45:07 -0000

Is this really what it's coming to? During what's already been a long, cold winter for the Detroit Tigers in terms of finding bullpen, is the only source of heat going to be... John Parrish?

The Tigers have actually been interested in Parrish since early December, but I was kind of hoping that would be forgotten after the frenzy of the holidays. Or that Jon Paul Morosi just tripped over a bad rumor in Vegas after a long night at the tables with drinks.

Yet here we go again, according to a blog post by Morosi yesterday. I'm going to need some help here, because I don't get this at all. Parrish's biggest selling point seems to be that he's "a less expensive option than Joe Beimel." Oh, and his last name is Parrish, which might remind people of Lance (and hopefully not Larry).

He doesn't strike guys out (4.5 per nine innings), and doesn't have a stellar walk rate (3.2 per nine) to make up for that, either. And if Detroit is eyeing him as a situational reliever against left-handers, they're kidding themselves. Lefties hit .305/.364/.525 in 66 plate appearances against Parrish last season. Never mind that the Tigers already have Bobby Seay, Clay Rapada, and Rule 5 draft pick Kyle Bloom on the roster.

Some of those numbers might be slanted by Parrish's performance as a starter, however. In six games, he posted a 5.10 ERA with opposing batters hitting.306/.346/.504 against him in 30 innings. As a reliever, his ERA was 1.46 (with a.238/.347/.310 average) in just 12.1 innings. But we're still talking about a guy who pitched more in Triple-A (91 innings) than the majors (42.3) with the Jays organization last year.

And maybe that's where the Tigers are really looking with this, which would mean I shouldn't get so worked up. Is it possible that Detroit is looking at Parrish more for minor league depth - and a call-up candidate, if needed - rather than a spot in the big league bullpen? He pitched well for Syracuse, compiling a 10-1 record and 2.97 ERA, with 100 strikeouts and 39 walks.

If Parrish is signed as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, I could live with that. I just hope he's not the 2009 version of Gary Glover.

Real Life Vs. Projections, Part 4, The Relievers

Tom Dakers — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 18:29:35 -0000

Finally getting to the last part of our comparison between how Baseball Prospectus thought the Jay players would perform and how they actually did. I figured to get this up earlier but, like John Lennon said 'life is what happens while you are making other plans.

Scott Downs
                     W L   SV G    IP    H   BB   SO HR ERA
Projected     4 2    1   81 58 47   24    57     3 2.17
Season    0 3 5 66 70.2 54 27    57     3     1.78

They thought Snakeface would be terrific and he was even better than they thought. He appeared in fewer games than they figure, some of the was due to the ankle injury, but he pitched more inning, because they figured he'd be a one out lefty again. Instead he moved into the set up role. His strikeout rate was a little lower than they penciled in for him, but he was great because he was able to get ground balls when ever he wanted one. His ERA was even better before he hurt his ankle, it was 1.17 before his last 2 games. It was one of the 2 or 3 best seasons ever for a Jay's setup man. You could make an arguement for him as team MVP.

B.J. Ryan
                     W    L   SV G    IP      H    BB SO HR ERA
Projected     4    4   14 48    58.1    47   22 67 5    2.96
Season        2    4   32 60    58.0    46   28 58 3    2.95

They were almost right on for BJ. He pitched in a few more games and had a lot more saved than they thought. BB/SO ratio wasn't quite as good as they thought, but considering he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, they did a heck of a job to come this close in their projections.

Brian Tallet
                    W   L SV   G       IP     H     BB SO HR   ERA
Projected    2   2   2   45    47.0 47    21   37 6    4.51
Season       1   2 0 51    56.1 52    22   47 4    2.88

Also had a better season than projected. His strikeout to walk rate was much better as was his ERA. Cito gave him some high leverage innings as he gained trust in him.

Jason Frasor
                    W L SV   G    IP    H    BB SO HR ERA
Projected    3   3 4 53   60.0 56   25 57 7 4.03
Season       1 2   1   49   47.1   36 32   42 4 4.18

Gave up fewer hits than they figured but his BB/SO rate was much worse. If he could cut the number of walks, he could be a useful player. Likely won't be our problem next year. I wonder if he would have done better if he felt the manager had any faith in him? Cito's believes that players do better if they feel they have the managers faith....so what happens to a player that clearly doesn't have that?

John Parrish
                     W L SV   G    IP      H    BB SO HR    ERA
Projected    1   2   1   34   35.1   40 22 31    2 5.05
Season       1 1 0   13   42.1 47   15 21 5 4.04

Parrish pitched more as a starter than a reliever, he game up more home runs than they thought. his strikeout rate was lower then they projected too. As he is a free agent we likely won't see more of him, but he was very good in a relief role, he could be a useful piece for some team.

Shawn Camp
                      W L   SV G    IP H    BB SO HR   ERA
Projected     2 2    2   36    40.0   47   13 27   4    4.83
Season    3   1    0   40    39.1   40 11 31 2    4.12

He was better than they thought he'd be, and better than I though he'd be. He could be a really good pitcher if he could come up with a pitch to throw to lefties or if he could find a manager that would only use him against right hander batter. Giving up fewer hits, fewer walks and fewer homers than Baseball Prospectus projected added up to a much better ERA.

Brandon League
                    W    L SV    G IP H    BB SO HR ERA
Projected    2    3   1    35   47.1 49   22   32   4 4.52
Season       1    2 1    31 33.0   28   15   23   2    2.18

BP had him down for 3 starts. He allowed hits at a much lower rate than they thought and had an ERA half of what they guessed. Sooner or later he's going to have a closer job somewhere.

Cy Carlson didn't even show on Baseball Prospectus' radar. I don't think any of us thought he would play a role for the Jays before he joined the team.

Final 2008 Report Card, Bullpen

hugo — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 00:26:13 -0000

Well, when we last met, we looked at the starting pitching and previously, Rince took a look at the hitting. This time, we'll take a look at the Jays who were responsible for protecting leads, holding the line in hopes of a Jays comeback that, let's face it, usually didn't come, and mopping up.

B.J. Ryan: B.J. came back incredibly fast from T.J. surgery, over 6 months early in fact, and worked himself quickly back into the closer's role. B.J. wasn't his old self, but he was an effective closer for the Jays this season, despite what some fans would have you believe. Ryan struck out exactly one batter per inning but did walk a few more than he had in the past. Ryan managed a healthy 146 ERA+ (2.95 ERA) and his groundball and other batted ball stats were back to his 2006 levels (with the noted exception that he wasn't getting as many popups). The one thing that was interesting was that B.J. was throwing almost no changeups. Since his delivery is deceptive, I think rediscovering that pitch could be a big help to B.J. I look for him to be even better in 2009. A-

Jeremy Accardo: Accardo, who broke through last season to fill in as closer, pitched only 12 innings this season before a weird forearm injury sidelined him. Jeremy couldn't get healthy and missed the rest of the season. Incomplete

Scott Downs: Downs was basically unbelievable, having one of the best seasons of any reliever in the league and one of the Jays' all-time best setup man seasons. Downs, who was used more as a LOOGY last season (and having a fantastic season in 2007 as well), stepped up and became a shutout 8th inning man. The Jays actually talked about making Downs a starter. All told, Downs had a sparkling 1.78 ERA (246 ERA+!) over 66 games and 70 2/3 innings. He wasn't striking out quite as many as in 2007, but he continued to get lots of ground balls and was also walking fewer men. Now, no one whose name isn't Mariano Rivera can put up a season like that every year, but Downs' season wasn't a fluke either. He's had two shutdown years for the Jays in a row, in two different roles. He did wear down at the end of the season. A+

Brandon League: The young Hawaiian power arm rediscovered the form that made him so effective in 2006 and became one of the most important parts of the Jays bullpen. League started off the season walking way too many, but he really settled down after the break, walking only 3 in August and September. Similarlly, his K numbers came on strong, striking out 17 in 20 2/3 innings through the last two months of the season. All told, League had a very good season and looks poised to be even better next season. A-

Jesse Carlson: The man we call "Cy" came out of nowhere this season and boy was it fun to watch. The lanky lefty bewildered opposing hitters, right and left-handed, with his breaking ball and his ability to get ahead in the count. Who can forget Cy's amazing performance when he came in with the bases loaded and no out and proceeded to strike out the side? Unfortunately, the Jays lost that game (it was the A.J. relief game, I think), but a legend was born. Carlson did not let up the rest of the season either, pitching 60 innings over 69 games, and putting up exceptional numbers: a 198 ERA+, 55 Ks, 21 walks, and a 1.033 Whip. Carlson was probably a bit lucky, but he was also extremely good. A

Brian Tallet: The tall lefty had another quietly effective season in 2008, finishing with a 150 ERA+ in a mix of high and low-leverage roles. Tallet continues to improve his peripherals, particularly his walk rates, and was a valuable member of the pen, striking out 47 and walking 22 over 56 innings. I'm not sure that Tallet will be back next season, but he was a good find for J.P., putting up 3 quality seasons. B+

Jason Frasor: Frasor just keeps disappearing more and more. With a dearth of righties in the pen this season, one would think it would've been his time to step up, but neither Gibbons nor Cito seemed inclined to trust Frasor, who isn't likely to be back. Jason had a league average (103 ERA+) season, but for a reliever that's certainly nothing special, and neither were his peripherals stats. C

Brian Wolfe: Wolfe battled arm problems but ultimately solidified some of the gains that made him so effective in 2007. Wolfe pitched only 22 innings but ended up with very fine numbers, including a 1.09 Whip. Wolfe is not a strikeout pitcher, but he limits his walks enough to be effective. B

John Parrish: Parrish wasn't very good as a starter but he was great out of the pen, putting up a 1.86 ERA and holding batters to a .656 OPS. He wasn't used in many high-leverage situations, but he held down the fort so that the Jays' principal arms could be saved for the close games. B

Shawn Camp: Camp, coming off an awful 2007, added a changeup and was okay, putting up decent numbers out of the pen. Unfortunately, no one seemed to be able to figure out that Camp is terrible against lefties, and so he wasn't used properly, despite pretty much everyone on Bluebird Banter figuring it out rather quickly, and despite the fact that there was really no need for him to pitch to lefties, with the Jays sporting 4 and even 5 lefties in the pen this season. Camp's splits: lefties OPSed a Bondian .976 against him, while righties put up a J-mac-ish .515 OPS. C+ (though through no fault of his own)

And

Cito Gaston: I find it really hard to evaluate managers, but Cito seemed to get the best out of his players, and that's what counts. Would the hitting have improved under Gibbons (and was some of it due to change in personnel) ? Probably, but it was great to see Cito actually sitting with his young players and talking to them - Alex Rios looked lost at the plate until the last few months, and Gibby just ignoring him sure didn't seem to help. Cito's management of pitchers isn't really to my taste, he can really leave a starter in too long, but it didn't hurt the Jays too much this season as their rotation was so good. Next season could be a different story, though. Cito also inexplicably seemed to hate Eckstein, which is pretty much the opposite of every other MLB manager - I don't really know what to think about that, but I doubt it made too much of a difference. B+

J.P. Ricciardi: The Wilkerson/Mench thing sure didn't work out. Ditching Reed for Stewart didn't either. Sending Lind down after 19 at-bats was inexplicable. Marcum and Litsch were both weirdly sent to AAA, showing what seemed to me to be a lack of patience. But J.P. put together a good team this season, a team good enough to compete for the playoffs in most situations. The Jays never really did, but I'm not sure that was J.P.'s fault. The real work for J.P. starts now, as there is so much up in the air. B.