SB Nation - Juan Uribe

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

White Sox Add Andruw Jones to Crowded Veteran Bench

The Cheat — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:23:10 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Jones is here to help you fill your quota of fat jokes

Browse more photos »

The White Sox seem to be going about their off-season in reverse. They're lining up their bench pieces to a team that still lacks two (or three) legitimate full-time major league position players.

Today, they've reportedly signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year, $500K incentive-laden deal to fill out the bench with Vizquel and Kotsay.

"This is an opportunity to add a power bat to the roster while improving our outfield depth," Williams said. "With the addition of Andruw, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel, we feel our bench is taking shape to be a strong asset heading into the 2010 season."

Jones looked to have a halted his precipitous career free fall by joining up with Rudy Jaramillo in Texas last season, putting up an .850 OPS in the first-half, but not even Jaramillo could stop Jones descent in the second half when he hit just .185/.310/.333. You could easily write off that performance as simply 100 bad at-bats. But that line is closer to Jones norm of the last few years than was his resurgent first half.

At this price, Jones is certainly a gamble worth taking. He can still catch the ball all over the outfield, and can put a charge into one every now an then. But it would be foolish to think of him as anything more than an outfield version of Juan Uribe going forward.

Edit by larry: One interesting thing to note is that Jones is represented by Scott Boras.

The State of the Rockies: A Sane Free Agency Preview

Jabberwocky — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:18:36 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, the siren of the MLB free agency period once again beckons, luring unsuspecting baseball fans into wrecking their ships against the sharp jagged rocks--in this case dreams of big-ticket free agents for even the smallest markets, ill-conceived trade schemes, and long soliloquies about why the owner/GM/beat writer is a complete and utter moron. This column, my dear friends, is the beeswax to put in your ears to defend you from those beautiful seductresses (and their horrible ideas) as you look forward to the 2010 Rockies.

Yes, that's right. A few minutes ago, the floodgates officially opened for major league free agency. In addition, all MLB teams are required to set their 40 man rosters in advance of the December 8th Rule 5 draft. I've written about all three subjects in Purple Row Academy before, so for those of you who are curious about how those processes are carried out, check out these primers:

Free Agency (the dates listed therein are from last offseason)

40 Man Roster

Rule 5 Draft

All three of these articles have supporting links that clarify the issues even further.

In this installment of the State of the Rockies, I opine about the puzzling Garrett Atkins decision, revisit Rafael Betancourt's situation, examine the Rockies' current 40 man roster status, and look some free agent targets that I'd like the Rockies to consider (plus, how they would fit into the budget that I've outlined over the last two weeks).

Join me after the jump if you value your sanity.

Why didn't the Rockies non-tender Garrett Atkins before the 40 man roster had to be set?

Good question. There's one main reason for doing this, and that's to extend the window of time that the Rockies have to trade the underperforming third baseman for another few weeks--until the December 12th deadline for tendering contracts for players under team control. Unfortunately for Colorado and Dan O'Dowd, the chances of such a deal being consummated reside squarely between slim and none.

It's not that Atkins isn't drawing interest from other teams. Just three years ago he was a player worth 6.4 WAR, he can play both corner infield positions somewhat passably, and he is theoretically in his prime (he'll turn 30 on the date that the Rockies will probably non-tender him). The problem is, Atkins' value as a trade asset to the Rockies is basically nil. Because by rule Atkins' salary next year unless he is a free agent can be no less than 80% of last year's total ($7.05 million), teams that would trade for Garrett would at a minimum be paying $5.64 million for a player that was flat out awful in 2009. The point is that I can't fathom another team trading the Rockies anything (and I mean anything) for him when he'd come much more cheaply once he's been non-tendered.

However, since the Rockies have seven slots open on the 40 man roster as of today (more on that later), it appears that Colorado has enough room to protect the prospects they want from the Rule 5 draft without removing Atkins from it. I'm hoping against hope that O'Dowd can finagle a deal for Atkins, but let's just say that I'm not holding my breath.

What's up with Rafael Betancourt?

From the poll results of last week's column, it appears that the vast majority of you want Betancourt back next year, preferably on a multi-year deal with less of a hit on a per-annum basis. Since the Rockies did decline his option, which was the right call in my opinion, they face a further decision with the soon to be 35 year old reliever--whether to offer him salary arbitration or not by the December 8th deadline.

It is my opinion that if he were offered arbitration, Betancourt would be crazy not to accept it. His status as a Type A free agent severely pollutes his value on the free agent market, chasing away a number of potentially interested teams that don't want to give the Rockies their first round pick for a solid set-up man. Considering Betancourt's age and the relatively high volatility of relief pitching performance, the risk for another team is particularly acute. I believe that as a result Betancourt would be very fortunate indeed to receive an offer that approaches what he would get in arbitration.

And what would that be? Let's look at some precedent--a tale of two relievers, if you will.

Last year two veteran relief pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration from their clubs. Oliver was a Type A free agent while Weathers was a former closer who had once been perceived as being productive. Oliver was coming off of a 1.0 WAR season in which he was very effective, while Weathers had produced 0.2 WAR.

Oliver, who was going to be 38 in 2009, got his salary increased through arbitration from $2 million to $3.665 million, while Weathers, who was going to be 39, went up from $3.3 to $3.5 million. Those are 83.3% and 6% raises respectively, as would befit their recent performance levels. In 2009, Oliver continued to defy science and produced an even better, 1.5 WAR year at age 38, while Weathers was DFA'd and ended up with -0.8 WAR--while being paid $3.5 million. That's the risk inherent with offering arbitration--some decisions pan out and some fail.

Given that Betancourt is likely better than both of the pitchers above and a little younger (35 compared to 38-39), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, closer to Oliver's 83% raise and maybe larger. In 2009 Betacourt was making $3.5 million—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 2.9 million (or 83%) to $6.4 million—in other words, more than the option the Rockies just declined should he accept arbitration. Who knows though…arbitrators work in mysterious ways.

The draft picks should Betancourt not accept arbitration and sign with another team would be worth about $5 million, so the Rockies are gambling that they can either re-sign Betancourt for a lower price tag or that another team would be willing to offer him a crazy contract despite his free agency status. If it works, O'Dowd is a genius--but I just have serious doubts that everything will work out. Bottom line though, the worst case scenario is that the Rockies pay Betancourt well over $6 million next year--which is pretty palatable as far as worst case scenarios go.

Who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned above, the Rockies have only 33 spots filled on their 40 man roster, meaning that they technically have room to protect up to seven prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that's not really realistic. As I've outlined previously, the Rockies have holes on the major league roster that need to be filled--namely replacements for their ten free agents and Atkins--so in effect they can protect only a few players.

Hat tip to WolfMarauder on this, but going strictly by the Purple Row PuRP list, the Rockies have four prospects that would need to be protected from the draft: Michael McKenry (C), Cole Garner (OF), Chaz Roe (RHP), and Edgmer Escalona (RHP)--plus Alberto Alberquerque (RHP), who the Rockies received in exchange for Jeff Baker.

Now admittedly the minor league system isn't my area of expertise, but if I were to hazard a guess, the Rockies will likely protect McKenry, Garner, and Roe--leaving both Escalona and Alberquerque (among other lesser prospects) eligible for the draft. They simply won't be able to protect more than that--not if the Rockies plan to field a complete roster come Opening Day 2010. We'll see soon enough.

Who should the Rockies be looking at in free agency?

Given that, by my calculations, the Rockies currently have 23 players under contract for next year (22 if you allow that Buchholz will start on the DL), they will need to fill those holes. This might be through re-signing free agents such as Yorvit Torrealba at back-up catcher, Rafael Betancourt as a set-up man, and Joe Beimel as a lefty out of the pen. Or they could go by the cheap youth method, promoting McKenry to the big leagues come Opening Day while using Deduno and Chacin in the bullpen. Or they could make a foray into the free agent market. Finally, the Rockies could explore the trade market both as a buyer and a seller. To that end, Baseball Prospectus has a few tips for those interested in making up interesting trade rumors.

My prediction is that the Rockies will explore a little of each, signing at least one of their free agents (my guess is that they do get Betancourt back one way or another) and maybe two (Torrealba seems somewhat likely as well), while should Torrealba fall through McKenry seems to be the most cost-effective candidate. I think that the Rockies are likely to trade one of their outfielders (and I've recommended Hawpe many many times), maybe two--and O'Dowd could perform a miracle and trade Atkins. Either way, I think the Rockies will be looking for one of two things in free agency: a back-up corner infielder/veteran and a relief pitcher, preferably a lefty.

Given this and the fact that the Rockies' budget is undeniably tight, here are a few players that I would recommend at least kicking the tires on that are within the Rockies price range. By no means is this list exhaustive, but these players would fill a need for Colorado.

Free Agency Targets

Pedro Feliz: Yes, he's a pretty bad hitter and yes, he's old, but Feliz fields his position very well (he could likely play first base at a high level too) and has shown at least some power--two important characteristics for a NL bench player. He's sufficiently veteranny (he'll be 34 years old), he's right-handed, and would likely cost around $3-5 million to sign. Ultimately, he's injury insurance that gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility in later innings. Obviously, Feliz will be looking for a starting situation before he would choose to come to the Rockies, which is a big stumbling block.

Jamey Carroll: He has already been awesome for the Rockies before (3.1 WAR in 2006), plus he can play almost anywhere on the diamond (and do it well). The fans and players love him already, and he's willing to come off the bench. The problem is that the competition for the utilityman will be fierce this offseason, and he might be snapped up for close to $3 million.

Felipe Lopez: He represents an upgrade at second base, plus he has defensive versatility. His excellent year last year could price him out of Colorado's range, though in my opinion he is being severely undervalued by many. This is a pipe dream that RMN and I share.

Juan Uribe: He's another former Rockie, one who has excelled in this type of role already on the Giants. Unfortunately for Colorado, he may have performed too well for the Giants, who really want him back. My prediction is that San Francisco gets their man.

Joe Crede: He's great with the leather and serviceable with the bat. The problem is that he's looking for a starting job and he's had three back surgeries already. Give him an incentive laden salary with a low base and he's your man--but Crede's probably not coming to Colorado in a part-time role (especially since he's a Boras client).

Eric Hinske: The last three years, the teams that Hinske has been on have made the World Series, winning it twice. How much more of a veteran winner can you be? Plus he's good with the bat and is versatile (though not particularly competent) defensively.

Jose Contreras: More than any other Rockies free agents, I want Contreras back next year as rotation insurance and as a swing man with excellent stuff in the bullpen--heck, I'd like to see the Rockies pay up to $3 million for his services. Whether that would be enough is another matter.

John Smoltz: If he'd deign to sign with the Rockies, Colorado would be glad to have his power arm in the bullpen or even in the fifth starter's role.

Rodrigo Lopez: He has found success in Colorado before and would serve as rotation depth.

Mark Hendrickson and Scott Eyre (Type B): Serviceable veteran left-handed relievers that would cost around $2-3 million each.

To that effect, there are many relievers or failed starters that O'Dowd could pick up cheaply off the scrap heap that would perform at a decent level for this team--I'm not really as worried about the bullpen.

The bottom line is that I think the Rockies should sign Feliz or a similar player to replace Atkins while inking a veteran starter/reliever for the bullpen. If Colorado does move Hawpe, they'll likely receive a bullpen arm in return that could fill the void as well. Either way, I'm expecting free agency to cost the Rockies around $8-10 million, bringing their ODP to around $87 million.

Free Agent Friday: Second Base 2010

Justin Bopp — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:04:53 -0000

These charts tells me the Royals are now in the Luis Rodriguez sweepstakes.

Click to enlarge

Full data after the jump.

Second basemen	AGE	TYPE	CLUB OPTION	WAR	UZR/150	wOBA	ISO	PA
Felipe Lopez	30	B		4.6	7.6	0.356	0.118	680
Placido Polanco	34	A		3.1	11	0.321	0.112	676
Juan Uribe	31			2.9	16.4	0.351	0.206	432
Orlando Hudson	32	A		2.9	-3.7	0.342	0.134	631
Craig Counsell	39			2.8	18	0.336	0.124	459
Adam Kennedy	34			1.7	-11.4	0.337	0.121	587
Mark DeRosa	35	B		1.7	N/A	0.327	0.183	576
Jamey Carroll	36			1.5	7.4	0.317	0.063	358
Ronnie Belliard	35	B		1.3	6.6	0.339	0.174	287
Jerry Hairston Jr.	34			1	4.1	0.312	0.144	433
Nick Green	31			0.4	-29.7	0.290	0.130	309
Alex Cora	34			0	-9.3	0.288	0.059	308
Mark Loretta	38			-0.2	0.7	0.311	0.085	204
Luis Rodriguez	30			-0.5	-23.7	0.268	0.058	251

Click for Free Agent Fridays 2010:

1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | P

Data Source: FanGraphs.com

FA/Age Source: mlbtraderumors.com

RL & Lg. Avg wOBA Data: Jeff Zimmerman

NL West Report: Dodgers and Rox aim for October, the rest looking to 2010

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 17:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Arizona has a difficult decision to make regarding Brandon Webb's option.

Browse more photos »

I don't envy Arizona's position.

Brandon Webb has been the best home-grown starting pitcher in franchise history, and it's not even close. He won the Cy Young Award in 2006 and came in second place the following two years. Yet after having shoulder surgery which indeed involved the labrum, a complete recovery for the 30-year-old is not guaranteed.

According to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, the surgery was "both good and bad." Most of it involved just cleaning up the shoulder, but arthroscopic procedure did reveal damage to Webb's labrum. It was not torn, rather "frayed," hence the good-and-bad description. Such damage does not tend to preclude pitchers from a full recovery, but here's the problem:

The Diamondbacks have to decide just days after the conclusion of the World Series, well before anyone could possibly know how well Webb will recover. Chances are quite good that he'll recover eventually to be at the least an ace-type pitcher again, but there are no guarantees his recovery would lead to that status for next season.

Webb could resolve matters a bit, but he is not interested in restructuring his contract.

Buster Olney doesn't blame him.

After presumably losing Jon Garland and Doug Davis from their Opening Day rotation, losing Webb would significantly hurt their rotation, one big reason why Dan Haren really wants Arizona to pick up his option.

So it appears Arizona is left with three options.

Decline the option and pay the $2.0million buyout, cutting their ace loose. This presumes $8.5million is too much of a risk for a pitcher coming off a late-season surgery involving a labrum, albeit just a fraying.
Decline the option, pay the $2.0million buyout and hope to resign him to a more economical deal. This seems unlikely, given Webb is already disgruntled with Arizona for pulling a $54million extension off the table last season. The contract would not be long-term given Webb's desire to return to dominance before getting into a long-term deal.
Stomach the near-eight-figure option and hope he returns to normal.

I'm generally very averse to taking risks with money and injuries. Plus, any damage to the labrum scares me. However, the the $8.5 million risk Arizona would sign up for is actually less than what they will stomach just to get rid of Eric Byrnes. Declining the option would probably mean the end of Webb's career in Arizona, and that's a rather unfortunate way to lose a franchise pitcher. In addition, if he pitches as he did from 2006-08 for even for just one-third of the season, they would see the return on the investment in 2010. He exceeded $26.0million in Fangraphs value in all three seasons. If I'm Arizona, I take that risk.

NL West team capsules under the fold.

NL West Report

Arizona (68-88, 5th, W2, 25 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 1-2 vs Giants. 2-1 vs Padres. Friday's loss found them 5.5 games below the Padres, but consecutive wins at Chase this weekend gives them an outside shot of climbing out of the cellar. They'll have to do it on the road, as Chase Field is closed for MLB ball until next April.

Pace: 71-91 (+1)

Divisional Change: No change.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Giants, 3 game road series @ Cubs. The only thing left to be decided for Arizona in their final week will be their draft slot next season. They can finish with no worse than the 4th worst record in MLB, "best" case scenario falling to 10th.

News: Chad Tracy has a $7M option in 2010, so Arizona is likely to drop him after the season. They started him in their home finale yesterday as a symbolic gesture, and the red-headed veteran came through with a home run in his final AB, just his eighth of the season.

Chad Tracy

#18 / First Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: May 22, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chad Tracy	94	249	27	59	14	0	8	39	24	36	1	0	.237	.302	.390

60% of Arizona's Opening Day rotation could be gone by Opening Day next season, but Nick Piecoro also points out a veteran bullpen arm will be on the offseason shopping list.

Mike Axisa at MLBTradeRumors.com points out Arizona did not get the return they were hoping for from their bullpen investments:

Arizona's pen was supposed to be anchored by Chad Qualls, Scott Schoeneweis, Tony Pena and Jon Rauch, but Rauch and Pena were traded, Qualls battled injury, and Schoeneweis dealt with the unfortunate passing of his wife. The foursome combined for a 4.46 ERA in 163.1 IP for the D-Backs this season.

In what will likely bring a smug grin to the faces of some Rockies fans, the D-Backs could cut ties with Eric Byrnes this offseason, eating the $10MM+ he is due for the final year of the contract he signed after the 2007 season.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors outlines Arizona's contractual obligations for 2010.

Mark Reynolds set the MLB strikeout record for the second consecutive year on Tuesday.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Conor Jackson is playing every day in an instructional league, but he will not return to the Diamondbacks' lineup this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Qualls	knee	08/31/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (93-63, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Nationals. 1-2 @ Pirates. Anyone surprised by their two losses against Pittsburgh should remember the Pirates are nearly a .500 club at PNC Park.

Pace: 97-65. (No change)

Divisional Change: No change.

This Week: Last game of 4-game road series @ Pirates. 2 game road series @ Padres. 3 game home series vs. Rockies. The Dodgers can clinch the NL West title today, before the Rockies can even take the field Tuesday against Milwaukee.

News: The biggest bargain free agent pitcher from last season has to be Randy Wolf. Ned Colletti signed him for a one-year $5MM contract that reached $8MM in incentives, but he has given Los Angeles a value of $14.0MM this season. MLBTradeRumors posted a discussion yesterday about Wolf's value in the free agent market this offseason.

Randy Wolf

#43 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 22, 1976

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wolf	11-6	34	33	0	0	0	0	209.1	173	79	75	24	54	158	3.22	1.08

Ned Colletti has been the Dodgers' GM for four seasons and Los Angeles has made the playoffs in three, though he has made some boneheaded free agent acquisitions in that time in retrospect. MLBTraderumors hosted a discussion on whether Colletti should be retained by Los Angeles and if so, for how much. I mentioned this topic last week as well, but MLBTR had yet to host a discussion on it.

Talented, cheap talented can't be had cheap for long. With Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, George Sherrill and Russell Martin headed to arbitration this offseason, the Dodgers' payroll figures to increase by almost $20 million next year just from raises.

Los Angeles clinched a playoff berth Saturday, though Joe Torre demanded the champagne wait until they eliminated Colorado from NL West contention. The Dodgers could have done exactly that yesterday in Clayton Kershaw 's his first start since September 4. However, Jonathan Broxton coughed up four runs to the Pirates in the ninth.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: None.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (72-85, 5th, L2, 21.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-3. 1-0 @ Pirates, 2-1 @ Rockies. 1-2 @ Diamondbacks. The Padres week started strong with four wins the first five days, but they dropped the last two matches at Chase Field. They still preserved their winning week, extending their non-losing streak to five weeks.

Pace: 74-88 (+1).

Divisonal change: Gained 1.0 game on LAD.

This Week: 2 game home series vs. Dodgers. 3 game home series vs. Giants. Bud Black has done an impressive job with this roster, as they are practically a lock now to avoid 90 losses.

News: The Cubs are done with Milton Bradley after suspending him for the rest of the year. He still has over $20million left on his contract through the 2011 season, so he will be most likely moved in a trade. After wearing out his welcome playing for his 7th team in nine years, you have to wonder who would take a flyer on this guy. Jerry Crasnick reports that Kevin Towers admits to being interested in Bradley.

Milton Bradley

#21 / Right Field / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-0

Weight: 225

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 15, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Milton Bradley	124	393	61	101	17	1	12	40	66	95	2	3	.257	.378	.397

We all remember his epic injury he sustained while with San Diego in 2007, but he actually was well regarded by the organization:

"We took a chance on him the first time we had him, and he actually played pretty well...our experience with him was a positive one. Not a negative one." -Towers, via Jerry Crasnick

Buster Olney and Jon Heyman individually suggested the reunion earlier this week as well.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 40th home run yesterday, a dizzying accomplishment in present day considering half his games are played at PetCo.

Buster Olney and several Baseball Prospectus writers converged to discuss the Padres' season and their future. It's insider access only, so it's convenient that MLBTradeRumors pulled out these highlights.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Prior to the game Saturday, Kevin Kouzmanoff took batting and fielding practice. The third baseman is hoping to return to the lineup for some last cuts tomorrow against the Dodgers. Edgar Gonzalez dislocated his shoulder on Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last week but has not been put on the disabled list. He is listed as day-to-day and will try to return by the end of the week.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

San Francisco (83-73, 3rd, W1, 10.0 GB in Div, 5.0 GB in WC)

Last Week: 3-4. 2-1 @ Diamondbacks. 1-3 vs Cubs. The Giants are all but out of the playoff race after choking away a home series against the Cubs. With six games left, they trail by five, meaning the Rockies' magic number to eliminating San Francisco is just three.

Pace: 86-76 (-1).

Divisional Change: Lost 0.5 games in NL West (LAD), Lost 0.5 games in WC (COL).

This Week: 3 game home series vs Diamondbacks, 3 game road series @ Padres. It easily could have been the Giants' soft schedule in the final week that would make Rockies' fans sweat. Thank you Bruce Bochy for mismanagement.

News: After effectively eliminating themselves from playoff contention from losing three to the Cubs, the organization has unofficially begun looking towards next year.

Regardless of their moves next year, they have almost clinched having a better trade deadline in 2010 as in 2009. Ryan Garko has only started six games in September, only slightly better than the 11 Freddy Sanchez started down the stretch. Now Sanchez will have season-ending knee surgery. So you can't see injuries coming? According to Andrew Baggarly, Sanchez knew he would need knee surgery after the season while still with Pittsburgh. The last link includes an extensive Q&A with Sanchez.

Freddy Sanchez

#21 / Second Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Freddy Sanchez	25	102	11	29	1	0	1	7	2	16	0	0	.284	.295	.324

The Giants definitely want to bring Sanchez back. Their reported method of doing so involves turning down his $8.1million option in hopes of resigning him to a two year deal.

An interesting wild card in the Sanchez dealings is Juan Uribe. Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle says that keeping Uribe has become obvious. As Zach Links writes for MLBTR, Sanchez posted far inferior UZR numbers to Uribe this season, while Sanchez posted OPS numbers greater than Uribe has in his ABs this year only once in his career. Uribe gave the Giants $12.8 million in value this season, more than any Rockie hitter not named Todd or Troy, and a far cry from his $0.9mil in production for the White Sox last year.

Closer Brian Wilson has had another solid season, putting the closer in line for a nice raise.

Tim Lincecum is open to long-term deal. Well that's all but obvious. He enjoys San Francisco, where he is the ace of a strong starting staff on a team on the upswing. The only question is how much money he will be able to get. As a Super Two, he will be eligible for arbitration this offseason for the first time, increasing the chances the Giants intercept that path to offer a long-term deal.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Bengie Molina has missed the last three games with a sore left hand. Edgar Renteria had season ending surgery Saturday to remove bone chips in his right elbow. Freddy Sanchez may be done for the year with a torn meniscus.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Justin Miller	elbow	09/13/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Emmanuel Burriss	foot	09/01/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

Poll

If you were Josh Byrnes, would you pick up Brandon Webb's $8.5million option without knowing how healthy he will be next season?

Absolutely. Buying him out would result in only a $6.5million gain by declining the option. The bigger risk would be effectively cutting ties with a franchise pitcher who could give them $8.5million in value in just half a season.

74 votes

Buy out the contract and hope Webb changes his mind and signs for a more economical short-term deal to prove his arm is healthy.

20 votes

Buy out the contract. The risk is too high that he couldn't pitch effectively next season. They have already committed to stomaching Eric Byrnes salary, and they can't just afford to pay a third of their payroll to players who aren't playing.

7 votes

Buy out the option year, sign him to 3-year, $18-million contract and trade him to Colorado for Omar Quintanilla and Juan Rincon.

32 votes

Something else. Tell me in the comments.

0 votes

133 votes | Poll has closed

Fixing the Giants Offense, Part I: Just Do Nothing

Grant — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:37:54 -0000

The offseason hasn't even started yet. I already hate the offseason. The hopes of improving the Giants' offense are dead; long live the hopes of improving the Giants' offense.

The team wants to re-sign Juan Uribe, which is a fine idea. But they want to sign Juan Uribe to start at second or third. The Giants' yer-only-good-as-yer-last-200-at-bats organizational philosophy doesn't see how it's possible that a player can decline after a good season. Randy Winn had a heckuva run before the Giants extended him, and he kept producing at that same level, averaging almost 30 home runs a year. Aaron Rowand was a 25-homer guy when the Giants signed him, and, gee, no one's regretting that move, what with Rowand continuing to be a middle-of-the-order force. So when you're looking to repair a completely broken offense, the first question you should ask yourself is, "Are there any 30-somethings who are coming off good seasons that were totally unexpected?" That's where they hide the gold in this league, people.

If Uribe hits like he did this year, he'd be perfectly fine at second or third. The odds of that happening are less than stellar. You have to factor in a possible decline with Uribe. And if he drops back to the performance level of his previous two seasons, he'll be another millstone around the neck of the offense. That's a big leap of faith.

If I were running the team, though, I'd re-sign Uribe too. And I'd promise him a starting job. So I'm not anti-Uribe. He should be the starting shortstop next year. I had a chance to talk with Giants Brass about this, and our conversation is after the jump.

Giants Brass: Whoa, whoa, whoa. But we have Edgar Renteria.
McC: ...who is one of the worst regular players in baseball. His offense is so poor that he'd be a bad player if he were a Gold Glover, which he most certainly is not. He plays the game as if he's encased in a Jello mold, and he's trying slowly fight his way out.

Giants Brass: Well, give him a chance. He was injured.

McC: Even if that's true, even if for the past two seasons his abysmal performances were due to injury, why would you expect him to get better? He's getting older, not younger. When you re-sign Juan Uribe and start him anywhere but short, you're doubling your risk. You're saying, "Well, I hope this 34-year-old, nicked up shortstop can stop being terrible, and I hope this 30-year-old player who had his best season in five years doesn't regress." Why not minimize the risk and say, "I hope this 30-year-old player doesn't regress...but if he does, at least he won't be worse than the player he's replacing, and we'll be able to upgrade another position in the lineup."

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

McC: Would you like to pay $9M and have a good shortstop, or would you like to pay $9M and have an awful shortstop?

Giants Brass: Uh. The first one?

McC: Good. Because you're going to pay $9M regardless. So you might as well find a good shortstop.

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

several hours later, after three PowerPoint presentations

McC: So, as you can see, the concept of "sunk costs" applies to baseball as well. You're paying Renteria $9M, yes. But that doesn't mean he's an asset to the team. So if you can find a better player who improves the team, you do it. That $9M isn't coming back, so there's no sense in paying all that money and getting a lackluster performance in exchange.

Giants Brass: Okay, smart guy, answer me this: Why wouldn't Renteria start if we pay him the kind of money that starting players usually get. Hmmm?

McC: Let's move on. So you're plan is to put Uribe at third, moving Sandoval over to first. Edgar keeps his starting job. Rowand starts in center.

Giants Brass: Have you seen what that guy makes? He must be some player!

McC: So that leaves second base as an open position, and...

Giants Brass: I'm pretty sure we'll find a way to keep Freddy Sanchez. He hit .284 for us!

McC: Uh, okay. So now you have two outfield spots to play with, and....

Giants Brass: Oh, no. We're going to start Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez in left. Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: So you have one outfield spot with which to fix the entire offense.

Giants Brass: It'll be tough, especially if Bengie doesn't come back. I mean, the drop off from Molina to Whiteside will be huge over 162 games.

McC: Do you have any players in mind?

Giants Brass: Well, not Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They'll require contracts that are too big, and they're not worth the long-term risks.

McC: Wow. I agree wi...

Giants Brass: Just kidding. We'll pursue them as if they will fix the offense single-handedly, but they won't want to come here. No, but there are a bunch of options out there. Marlon Byrd is over 30, and he's likely to just keep getting better. He hits for a little power in Texas, which will obviously translate well here, he doesn't take walks...he's perfect. Garret Anderson is due for a breakout season. Randy Winn is due to rebound. We have a bunch of options.

McC: Thank you for your time. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go commit hari kari.

Giants Brass: Good luck! I don't even think he's broadcasting for the Cubs anymore, but he is crazy. I saw a documentary once where he talked about the moon being made of spare ribs. Crazy stuff!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrroooom!

This team is going to want to rebuild a very bad offense, yet they're committed to retaining one of the worst pieces of that offense, even though he doesn't provide any defensive upgrade, and even though there's a capable replacement who wants to come back to the team. I don't get it.

Juan Uribe wants to stay in San Francisco

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:24:34 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Browse more photos »

Giants infielder Juan Uribe hopes that his strong season will land him a spot with the Giants in 2010. Uribe signed an inexpensive one year, one million dollar deal last offseason and is hitting forty points above his career average.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Juan Uribe	117	378	49	113	25	4	15	53	23	77	3	1	.299	.337	.505

The Giants do not necessarily have to bring back Freddy Sanchez next season, and could rotate Uribe to second base with Renteria and Sandoval on the left side.

However, Renteria is having a down year for the second year in a row, with his numbers falling from to a .332 average with a .390 on-base percentage in 2007 to a .250 average with a .307 on-base percentage in 2009.

It is rare a team stays in playoff contention without solid depth on their bench, so the Giants would still be smart to try and bring back Freddy Sanchez, allowing Uribe to play between second and short next season.

Trade Zambrano? Not After Spectacular 3-0 Shutout Of Giants

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:52:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Wow, Z. Why can't you do this every time?

Browse more photos »

I have been, at times, the leader of the "Trade Zambrano" bandwagon. I did so after the Z - Michael Barrett dustup in 2007, and I told him to "grow up" after the memorable meltdown with umpire Mark Carlson last May.

But there is no doubt that Z is among the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he showed every bit of that talent in shutting out the Giants 3-0 on two hits. In addition to outstanding pitching -- throwing 67 strikes in 98 pitches and allowing just two singles, one by Juan Uribe and another by Tim Lincecum, and issuing a walk to Randy Winn -- Z drove in two of the three Cubs runs, the first by beating a double-play relay throw, and the second with a double to the base of the wall in left field.

Really, what more can you ask of a pitcher? Z took that intensity that we often have seen explode in histrionics and focused every bit of it on his pitching. If we knew that intensity could be that channeled in every single start, not one of us would be asking for him to be sent away (I've even heard a rumor of a "challenge trade" where he'd be sent to the White Sox for Jake Peavy).

And on a night when the start of the game was delayed about five minutes while the Giants presented their annual "Willie Mac" award for community service to Matt Cain (and emcee Mike Krukow gave a shout-out to Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, who won the award while playing for the Giants in 1984), Z and the Cubs accomplished all this in one hour and fifty-six minutes, the first nine-inning Cubs game finished in less than two hours in more than three years, since April 17, 2006, a 4-1 win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

With Aramis Ramirez still nursing a sore shoulder (Lou didn't want to play him on another chilly night in San Francisco) and Derrek Lee having a bit of a recurrence of his neck problems after an awkward slide stealing his first base of the year and then getting slapped on his helmet by Angel Guzman in the celebration following Jeff Baker's homer (D-Lee says he doesn't blame Guzman and will be back today), the Cubs put another spring-training-like lineup on the field last night, with Baker hitting cleanup and Bobby Scales again in left field. Scales played a competent LF in windy [Phone Holding Company] Park, and Baker drew two walks off Lincecum.

Sam Fuld had three hits, and Len Kasper pointed out during the game that he had singled off two Cy Young winners (Lincecum and Randy Johnson) in the same game. Wonder when that has happened before? The Cubs even scored a run off Johnson, something they've had trouble doing during the Big Unit's long and distinguished career.

But the star of the game was Z, who now has the only two complete-game shutouts for a Cubs pitcher since Jason Marquis threw a three-hitter vs. the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Z was, in many ways, just as dominant than during his no-hitter last September 14. Though he gave up the two singles, he threw fewer pitches and had Giants hitters flailing away at a devastating slider -- seven of the nine K's were swinging.

Keep up the good work, Z, and we'll be thrilled to see you retire as a Cub. And one more thing about recent Cubs baseball: I think I've enjoyed watching them play this week more than at any time all season. The 5-1 record posted since Sunday has included some fine play by just about everyone, and even the one loss was played well. Too bad we had to wait so long.

Finally, there were a lot more excellent entries in last night's photo caption contest. There were two who played off the "Dancing With The Stars" angle, but the winner is going to be the one who posted it first (by time stamp); that would be lohroffc, who posted, simply:

Fukudome and Velez audition for Dancing with the Stars.

Send me your mailing address and I'll send out the DVD. Today's preview thread will be up at 1 pm CDT.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.