SB Nation - Juan Uribe

NL West Report: Dodgers and Rox aim for October, the rest looking to 2010

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 17:00:17 -0000

Arizona has a difficult decision to make regarding Brandon Webb's option.

I don't envy Arizona's position.

Brandon Webb has been the best home-grown starting pitcher in franchise history, and it's not even close. He won the Cy Young Award in 2006 and came in second place the following two years. Yet after having shoulder surgery which indeed involved the labrum, a complete recovery for the 30-year-old is not guaranteed.

According to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, the surgery was "both good and bad." Most of it involved just cleaning up the shoulder, but arthroscopic procedure did reveal damage to Webb's labrum. It was not torn, rather "frayed," hence the good-and-bad description. Such damage does not tend to preclude pitchers from a full recovery, but here's the problem:

The Diamondbacks have to decide just days after the conclusion of the World Series, well before anyone could possibly know how well Webb will recover. Chances are quite good that he'll recover eventually to be at the least an ace-type pitcher again, but there are no guarantees his recovery would lead to that status for next season.

Webb could resolve matters a bit, but he is not interested in restructuring his contract.

Buster Olney doesn't blame him.

After presumably losing Jon Garland and Doug Davis from their Opening Day rotation, losing Webb would significantly hurt their rotation, one big reason why Dan Haren really wants Arizona to pick up his option.

So it appears Arizona is left with three options.

Decline the option and pay the $2.0million buyout, cutting their ace loose. This presumes $8.5million is too much of a risk for a pitcher coming off a late-season surgery involving a labrum, albeit just a fraying.
Decline the option, pay the $2.0million buyout and hope to resign him to a more economical deal. This seems unlikely, given Webb is already disgruntled with Arizona for pulling a $54million extension off the table last season. The contract would not be long-term given Webb's desire to return to dominance before getting into a long-term deal.
Stomach the near-eight-figure option and hope he returns to normal.

I'm generally very averse to taking risks with money and injuries. Plus, any damage to the labrum scares me. However, the the $8.5 million risk Arizona would sign up for is actually less than what they will stomach just to get rid of Eric Byrnes. Declining the option would probably mean the end of Webb's career in Arizona, and that's a rather unfortunate way to lose a franchise pitcher. In addition, if he pitches as he did from 2006-08 for even for just one-third of the season, they would see the return on the investment in 2010. He exceeded $26.0million in Fangraphs value in all three seasons. If I'm Arizona, I take that risk.

NL West team capsules under the fold.

NL West Report

Arizona (68-88, 5th, W2, 25 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 1-2 vs Giants. 2-1 vs Padres. Friday's loss found them 5.5 games below the Padres, but consecutive wins at Chase this weekend gives them an outside shot of climbing out of the cellar. They'll have to do it on the road, as Chase Field is closed for MLB ball until next April.

Pace: 71-91 (+1)

Divisional Change: No change.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Giants, 3 game road series @ Cubs. The only thing left to be decided for Arizona in their final week will be their draft slot next season. They can finish with no worse than the 4th worst record in MLB, "best" case scenario falling to 10th.

News: Chad Tracy has a $7M option in 2010, so Arizona is likely to drop him after the season. They started him in their home finale yesterday as a symbolic gesture, and the red-headed veteran came through with a home run in his final AB, just his eighth of the season.

Chad Tracy

#18 / First Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: May 22, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chad Tracy	94	249	27	59	14	0	8	39	24	36	1	0	.237	.302	.390

60% of Arizona's Opening Day rotation could be gone by Opening Day next season, but Nick Piecoro also points out a veteran bullpen arm will be on the offseason shopping list.

Mike Axisa at MLBTradeRumors.com points out Arizona did not get the return they were hoping for from their bullpen investments:

Arizona's pen was supposed to be anchored by Chad Qualls, Scott Schoeneweis, Tony Pena and Jon Rauch, but Rauch and Pena were traded, Qualls battled injury, and Schoeneweis dealt with the unfortunate passing of his wife. The foursome combined for a 4.46 ERA in 163.1 IP for the D-Backs this season.

In what will likely bring a smug grin to the faces of some Rockies fans, the D-Backs could cut ties with Eric Byrnes this offseason, eating the $10MM+ he is due for the final year of the contract he signed after the 2007 season.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors outlines Arizona's contractual obligations for 2010.

Mark Reynolds set the MLB strikeout record for the second consecutive year on Tuesday.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Conor Jackson is playing every day in an instructional league, but he will not return to the Diamondbacks' lineup this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Qualls	knee	08/31/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (93-63, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Nationals. 1-2 @ Pirates. Anyone surprised by their two losses against Pittsburgh should remember the Pirates are nearly a .500 club at PNC Park.

Pace: 97-65. (No change)

Divisional Change: No change.

This Week: Last game of 4-game road series @ Pirates. 2 game road series @ Padres. 3 game home series vs. Rockies. The Dodgers can clinch the NL West title today, before the Rockies can even take the field Tuesday against Milwaukee.

News: The biggest bargain free agent pitcher from last season has to be Randy Wolf. Ned Colletti signed him for a one-year $5MM contract that reached $8MM in incentives, but he has given Los Angeles a value of $14.0MM this season. MLBTradeRumors posted a discussion yesterday about Wolf's value in the free agent market this offseason.

Randy Wolf

#43 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 22, 1976

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wolf	11-6	34	33	0	0	0	0	209.1	173	79	75	24	54	158	3.22	1.08

Ned Colletti has been the Dodgers' GM for four seasons and Los Angeles has made the playoffs in three, though he has made some boneheaded free agent acquisitions in that time in retrospect. MLBTraderumors hosted a discussion on whether Colletti should be retained by Los Angeles and if so, for how much. I mentioned this topic last week as well, but MLBTR had yet to host a discussion on it.

Talented, cheap talented can't be had cheap for long. With Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, George Sherrill and Russell Martin headed to arbitration this offseason, the Dodgers' payroll figures to increase by almost $20 million next year just from raises.

Los Angeles clinched a playoff berth Saturday, though Joe Torre demanded the champagne wait until they eliminated Colorado from NL West contention. The Dodgers could have done exactly that yesterday in Clayton Kershaw 's his first start since September 4. However, Jonathan Broxton coughed up four runs to the Pirates in the ninth.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: None.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (72-85, 5th, L2, 21.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-3. 1-0 @ Pirates, 2-1 @ Rockies. 1-2 @ Diamondbacks. The Padres week started strong with four wins the first five days, but they dropped the last two matches at Chase Field. They still preserved their winning week, extending their non-losing streak to five weeks.

Pace: 74-88 (+1).

Divisonal change: Gained 1.0 game on LAD.

This Week: 2 game home series vs. Dodgers. 3 game home series vs. Giants. Bud Black has done an impressive job with this roster, as they are practically a lock now to avoid 90 losses.

News: The Cubs are done with Milton Bradley after suspending him for the rest of the year. He still has over $20million left on his contract through the 2011 season, so he will be most likely moved in a trade. After wearing out his welcome playing for his 7th team in nine years, you have to wonder who would take a flyer on this guy. Jerry Crasnick reports that Kevin Towers admits to being interested in Bradley.

Milton Bradley

#21 / Right Field / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-0

Weight: 225

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 15, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Milton Bradley	124	393	61	101	17	1	12	40	66	95	2	3	.257	.378	.397

We all remember his epic injury he sustained while with San Diego in 2007, but he actually was well regarded by the organization:

"We took a chance on him the first time we had him, and he actually played pretty well...our experience with him was a positive one. Not a negative one." -Towers, via Jerry Crasnick

Buster Olney and Jon Heyman individually suggested the reunion earlier this week as well.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 40th home run yesterday, a dizzying accomplishment in present day considering half his games are played at PetCo.

Buster Olney and several Baseball Prospectus writers converged to discuss the Padres' season and their future. It's insider access only, so it's convenient that MLBTradeRumors pulled out these highlights.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Prior to the game Saturday, Kevin Kouzmanoff took batting and fielding practice. The third baseman is hoping to return to the lineup for some last cuts tomorrow against the Dodgers. Edgar Gonzalez dislocated his shoulder on Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last week but has not been put on the disabled list. He is listed as day-to-day and will try to return by the end of the week.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

San Francisco (83-73, 3rd, W1, 10.0 GB in Div, 5.0 GB in WC)

Last Week: 3-4. 2-1 @ Diamondbacks. 1-3 vs Cubs. The Giants are all but out of the playoff race after choking away a home series against the Cubs. With six games left, they trail by five, meaning the Rockies' magic number to eliminating San Francisco is just three.

Pace: 86-76 (-1).

Divisional Change: Lost 0.5 games in NL West (LAD), Lost 0.5 games in WC (COL).

This Week: 3 game home series vs Diamondbacks, 3 game road series @ Padres. It easily could have been the Giants' soft schedule in the final week that would make Rockies' fans sweat. Thank you Bruce Bochy for mismanagement.

News: After effectively eliminating themselves from playoff contention from losing three to the Cubs, the organization has unofficially begun looking towards next year.

Regardless of their moves next year, they have almost clinched having a better trade deadline in 2010 as in 2009. Ryan Garko has only started six games in September, only slightly better than the 11 Freddy Sanchez started down the stretch. Now Sanchez will have season-ending knee surgery. So you can't see injuries coming? According to Andrew Baggarly, Sanchez knew he would need knee surgery after the season while still with Pittsburgh. The last link includes an extensive Q&A with Sanchez.

Freddy Sanchez

#21 / Second Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Freddy Sanchez	25	102	11	29	1	0	1	7	2	16	0	0	.284	.295	.324

The Giants definitely want to bring Sanchez back. Their reported method of doing so involves turning down his $8.1million option in hopes of resigning him to a two year deal.

An interesting wild card in the Sanchez dealings is Juan Uribe. Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle says that keeping Uribe has become obvious. As Zach Links writes for MLBTR, Sanchez posted far inferior UZR numbers to Uribe this season, while Sanchez posted OPS numbers greater than Uribe has in his ABs this year only once in his career. Uribe gave the Giants $12.8 million in value this season, more than any Rockie hitter not named Todd or Troy, and a far cry from his $0.9mil in production for the White Sox last year.

Closer Brian Wilson has had another solid season, putting the closer in line for a nice raise.

Tim Lincecum is open to long-term deal. Well that's all but obvious. He enjoys San Francisco, where he is the ace of a strong starting staff on a team on the upswing. The only question is how much money he will be able to get. As a Super Two, he will be eligible for arbitration this offseason for the first time, increasing the chances the Giants intercept that path to offer a long-term deal.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Bengie Molina has missed the last three games with a sore left hand. Edgar Renteria had season ending surgery Saturday to remove bone chips in his right elbow. Freddy Sanchez may be done for the year with a torn meniscus.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Justin Miller	elbow	09/13/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Emmanuel Burriss	foot	09/01/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

Poll

If you were Josh Byrnes, would you pick up Brandon Webb's $8.5million option without knowing how healthy he will be next season?

Absolutely. Buying him out would result in only a $6.5million gain by declining the option. The bigger risk would be effectively cutting ties with a franchise pitcher who could give them $8.5million in value in just half a season.

74 votes

Buy out the contract and hope Webb changes his mind and signs for a more economical short-term deal to prove his arm is healthy.

20 votes

Buy out the contract. The risk is too high that he couldn't pitch effectively next season. They have already committed to stomaching Eric Byrnes salary, and they can't just afford to pay a third of their payroll to players who aren't playing.

7 votes

Buy out the option year, sign him to 3-year, $18-million contract and trade him to Colorado for Omar Quintanilla and Juan Rincon.

32 votes

Something else. Tell me in the comments.

0 votes

133 votes | Poll has closed

Fixing the Giants Offense, Part I: Just Do Nothing

Grant — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:37:54 -0000

The offseason hasn't even started yet. I already hate the offseason. The hopes of improving the Giants' offense are dead; long live the hopes of improving the Giants' offense.

The team wants to re-sign Juan Uribe, which is a fine idea. But they want to sign Juan Uribe to start at second or third. The Giants' yer-only-good-as-yer-last-200-at-bats organizational philosophy doesn't see how it's possible that a player can decline after a good season. Randy Winn had a heckuva run before the Giants extended him, and he kept producing at that same level, averaging almost 30 home runs a year. Aaron Rowand was a 25-homer guy when the Giants signed him, and, gee, no one's regretting that move, what with Rowand continuing to be a middle-of-the-order force. So when you're looking to repair a completely broken offense, the first question you should ask yourself is, "Are there any 30-somethings who are coming off good seasons that were totally unexpected?" That's where they hide the gold in this league, people.

If Uribe hits like he did this year, he'd be perfectly fine at second or third. The odds of that happening are less than stellar. You have to factor in a possible decline with Uribe. And if he drops back to the performance level of his previous two seasons, he'll be another millstone around the neck of the offense. That's a big leap of faith.

If I were running the team, though, I'd re-sign Uribe too. And I'd promise him a starting job. So I'm not anti-Uribe. He should be the starting shortstop next year. I had a chance to talk with Giants Brass about this, and our conversation is after the jump.

Giants Brass: Whoa, whoa, whoa. But we have Edgar Renteria.
McC: ...who is one of the worst regular players in baseball. His offense is so poor that he'd be a bad player if he were a Gold Glover, which he most certainly is not. He plays the game as if he's encased in a Jello mold, and he's trying slowly fight his way out.

Giants Brass: Well, give him a chance. He was injured.

McC: Even if that's true, even if for the past two seasons his abysmal performances were due to injury, why would you expect him to get better? He's getting older, not younger. When you re-sign Juan Uribe and start him anywhere but short, you're doubling your risk. You're saying, "Well, I hope this 34-year-old, nicked up shortstop can stop being terrible, and I hope this 30-year-old player who had his best season in five years doesn't regress." Why not minimize the risk and say, "I hope this 30-year-old player doesn't regress...but if he does, at least he won't be worse than the player he's replacing, and we'll be able to upgrade another position in the lineup."

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

McC: Would you like to pay $9M and have a good shortstop, or would you like to pay $9M and have an awful shortstop?

Giants Brass: Uh. The first one?

McC: Good. Because you're going to pay $9M regardless. So you might as well find a good shortstop.

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

several hours later, after three PowerPoint presentations

McC: So, as you can see, the concept of "sunk costs" applies to baseball as well. You're paying Renteria $9M, yes. But that doesn't mean he's an asset to the team. So if you can find a better player who improves the team, you do it. That $9M isn't coming back, so there's no sense in paying all that money and getting a lackluster performance in exchange.

Giants Brass: Okay, smart guy, answer me this: Why wouldn't Renteria start if we pay him the kind of money that starting players usually get. Hmmm?

McC: Let's move on. So you're plan is to put Uribe at third, moving Sandoval over to first. Edgar keeps his starting job. Rowand starts in center.

Giants Brass: Have you seen what that guy makes? He must be some player!

McC: So that leaves second base as an open position, and...

Giants Brass: I'm pretty sure we'll find a way to keep Freddy Sanchez. He hit .284 for us!

McC: Uh, okay. So now you have two outfield spots to play with, and....

Giants Brass: Oh, no. We're going to start Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez in left. Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: So you have one outfield spot with which to fix the entire offense.

Giants Brass: It'll be tough, especially if Bengie doesn't come back. I mean, the drop off from Molina to Whiteside will be huge over 162 games.

McC: Do you have any players in mind?

Giants Brass: Well, not Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They'll require contracts that are too big, and they're not worth the long-term risks.

McC: Wow. I agree wi...

Giants Brass: Just kidding. We'll pursue them as if they will fix the offense single-handedly, but they won't want to come here. No, but there are a bunch of options out there. Marlon Byrd is over 30, and he's likely to just keep getting better. He hits for a little power in Texas, which will obviously translate well here, he doesn't take walks...he's perfect. Garret Anderson is due for a breakout season. Randy Winn is due to rebound. We have a bunch of options.

McC: Thank you for your time. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go commit hari kari.

Giants Brass: Good luck! I don't even think he's broadcasting for the Cubs anymore, but he is crazy. I saw a documentary once where he talked about the moon being made of spare ribs. Crazy stuff!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrroooom!

This team is going to want to rebuild a very bad offense, yet they're committed to retaining one of the worst pieces of that offense, even though he doesn't provide any defensive upgrade, and even though there's a capable replacement who wants to come back to the team. I don't get it.

Juan Uribe wants to stay in San Francisco

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:24:34 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Browse more photos »

Giants infielder Juan Uribe hopes that his strong season will land him a spot with the Giants in 2010. Uribe signed an inexpensive one year, one million dollar deal last offseason and is hitting forty points above his career average.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Juan Uribe	117	378	49	113	25	4	15	53	23	77	3	1	.299	.337	.505

The Giants do not necessarily have to bring back Freddy Sanchez next season, and could rotate Uribe to second base with Renteria and Sandoval on the left side.

However, Renteria is having a down year for the second year in a row, with his numbers falling from to a .332 average with a .390 on-base percentage in 2007 to a .250 average with a .307 on-base percentage in 2009.

It is rare a team stays in playoff contention without solid depth on their bench, so the Giants would still be smart to try and bring back Freddy Sanchez, allowing Uribe to play between second and short next season.

Trade Zambrano? Not After Spectacular 3-0 Shutout Of Giants

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:52:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Wow, Z. Why can't you do this every time?

Browse more photos »

I have been, at times, the leader of the "Trade Zambrano" bandwagon. I did so after the Z - Michael Barrett dustup in 2007, and I told him to "grow up" after the memorable meltdown with umpire Mark Carlson last May.

But there is no doubt that Z is among the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he showed every bit of that talent in shutting out the Giants 3-0 on two hits. In addition to outstanding pitching -- throwing 67 strikes in 98 pitches and allowing just two singles, one by Juan Uribe and another by Tim Lincecum, and issuing a walk to Randy Winn -- Z drove in two of the three Cubs runs, the first by beating a double-play relay throw, and the second with a double to the base of the wall in left field.

Really, what more can you ask of a pitcher? Z took that intensity that we often have seen explode in histrionics and focused every bit of it on his pitching. If we knew that intensity could be that channeled in every single start, not one of us would be asking for him to be sent away (I've even heard a rumor of a "challenge trade" where he'd be sent to the White Sox for Jake Peavy).

And on a night when the start of the game was delayed about five minutes while the Giants presented their annual "Willie Mac" award for community service to Matt Cain (and emcee Mike Krukow gave a shout-out to Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, who won the award while playing for the Giants in 1984), Z and the Cubs accomplished all this in one hour and fifty-six minutes, the first nine-inning Cubs game finished in less than two hours in more than three years, since April 17, 2006, a 4-1 win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

With Aramis Ramirez still nursing a sore shoulder (Lou didn't want to play him on another chilly night in San Francisco) and Derrek Lee having a bit of a recurrence of his neck problems after an awkward slide stealing his first base of the year and then getting slapped on his helmet by Angel Guzman in the celebration following Jeff Baker's homer (D-Lee says he doesn't blame Guzman and will be back today), the Cubs put another spring-training-like lineup on the field last night, with Baker hitting cleanup and Bobby Scales again in left field. Scales played a competent LF in windy [Phone Holding Company] Park, and Baker drew two walks off Lincecum.

Sam Fuld had three hits, and Len Kasper pointed out during the game that he had singled off two Cy Young winners (Lincecum and Randy Johnson) in the same game. Wonder when that has happened before? The Cubs even scored a run off Johnson, something they've had trouble doing during the Big Unit's long and distinguished career.

But the star of the game was Z, who now has the only two complete-game shutouts for a Cubs pitcher since Jason Marquis threw a three-hitter vs. the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Z was, in many ways, just as dominant than during his no-hitter last September 14. Though he gave up the two singles, he threw fewer pitches and had Giants hitters flailing away at a devastating slider -- seven of the nine K's were swinging.

Keep up the good work, Z, and we'll be thrilled to see you retire as a Cub. And one more thing about recent Cubs baseball: I think I've enjoyed watching them play this week more than at any time all season. The 5-1 record posted since Sunday has included some fine play by just about everyone, and even the one loss was played well. Too bad we had to wait so long.

Finally, there were a lot more excellent entries in last night's photo caption contest. There were two who played off the "Dancing With The Stars" angle, but the winner is going to be the one who posted it first (by time stamp); that would be lohroffc, who posted, simply:

Fukudome and Velez audition for Dancing with the Stars.

Send me your mailing address and I'll send out the DVD. Today's preview thread will be up at 1 pm CDT.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

NL West Report: Final standings taking shape

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:00:45 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

A charge from the last month from San Diego has put them in prime position to finish surprisingly in fourth place.

Browse more photos »

There are two weeks left to play this season. Ironically, we already have a very strong idea how the final standings in the National League West will shake out, at least in terms of order. The space between teams in the division has stretched to the point nearly of no return.

In the last week, the Dodgers and Rockies strengthened their grasp on their respective positions, while San Diego created a little more distance from the fading Diamondbacks.

For a mathematical look, here's a handy standings table. The %+1 column indicates the probability the team will move up one slot in the standings. %-1 indicates the opposite. SAME represents the probability the team will stay in the same spot. For all practical purposes, the Giants cannot win the division, and they are the only team mathematically alive to move two places in the standings (and consequently, the Dodgers as well).

The percentages were calculated by analyzing SportsClubsStats' odds final standings probability distribution, which should be noted exhibits smaller variances than Baseball Prospectus. (For instance, Prospectus gives the Rockies twice the chance to win the division as SCS). However, given the extra detail SCS gives, that' what I used to calculate probabilities.

NL West Standings

	W-L	GB	%+1	%-1	Same
Los Angeles	90-60	-	-	0.8%	98.5%
Colorado	85-65	5	0.8%	1.1%	98.1%
San Francisco	80-69	9.5	1.1%	0%	98.9%
San Diego	68-82	22	0%	9.9%	90.1%
Arizona	65-85	25	9.9%	-	90.1%

(updated 9.20.2009 at 11:13 PM MDT)

No team has odds greater than 10% to move from their current position, and ignoring mathematics, San Diego would appear to have a better chance than even that 90% at retaining their 4th place position. The Padres have not had a losing week in the last month, while Arizona is stumbling through a 5-13 September.

There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of drama here folks. We are two weeks out, and the final standings are starting to look very clear. In fact, chances are about 86% that the order will come out on October 5 exactly as they do this morning, and more than half of the doubt comes from the inconsequential repositioning of the bottom two teams.

Find out about the NL West after the jump.

NL West Report

San Francisco (80-69, 3rd, L2, 9.0 GB in Div, 4.5 GB in WC)

**Last Week: 3-3.  2-1 vs Rockies. 1-2 @ Dodgers. The Giants were inches from being 1.5 games behind, but their failure to close the Rox series and beat Los Angeles completely nullified those first two games they won against the Rockies. Since August 28, San Francisco is 2-0 in series against Colorado, 1-4 against the rest of the NL.

Pace:  87-75 (No change).

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games in NL West (LAD), No change in WC (COL), though making up no ground cost them a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks, 4 game home series vs Cubs. While the Rockies spar with the hot Padres and strong Cards, San Francisco absolutely must make up ground this week with the lighter schedule, or they'll be out of the playoff chase by the next installment of NL West Report.

News:** Obviously, the biggest story was the detention of 19-year-old Angel Villalona in connection with a murder in the Dominican Republic Saturday night. For more information, check out articles at the San Francisco Chronicle or at MLB.com.

Angel Villalona

#31 / First Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 13, 1990

Villalona could be facing 20 years in prison if convicted, which would obviously kill his career. The first baseman was ranked as the Giants' #3 prospect prior to the season behind Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. Given that both Bumgarner and Posey have both surfaced in the minor leagues this season, Villalona represented the top prospect left in the minor leagues. He played in last year's Futures Game and was a Baseball America top-50 prospect league-wide. This would be a huge blow to an organization that traded away their #4 and #9 prospect as well as seeing their top arm struggle with injuries and velocity issues. Plus, I hear Buster Posey has just one hit all month.

A quote from the team's official statement:

"The Giants were disappointed to learn that there was an incident in the Dominican Republic last night in which an individual was killed and one of our Minor League prospects, Angel Villalona, may have been involved" - Chris Haft, MLB.com

I'm not sure "disappointed" is quite colorful enough of an adjective. Here is McCovey Chronicles' reaction. Some seem to hope it is reminiscent of Juan Uribe's feud in 2006. Unlikely. Villalona voluntarily turned himself in yesterday.

In other news, Brian Sabean appears to have gotten himself an extension.  According to Andrew Baggarly, finishing strong could seal the deal. Sabean had a poor record, and though he improved this season, trading from Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko proved predictably to be underwhelming moves.

Juan Uribe is having a surprising season in San Francisco, and partly for that, he is irrationally loved.

There were some rumblings of the Giants wanting to acquire Prince Fielder. San Francisco refuses to part with their thinning crop of prospects, so the most logical match is Matt Cain. Interesting move there.

After pitching very well recently, both Tim Lincecum and Brad Penny were shelled by Los Angeles over the weekend.

Transactions:   Outrighted RHP Osiris Matos to the minors.

Injuries: Activated LHP Randy Johnson from the 60-day DL. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the club moved RHP Justin Miller to the 60-day DL.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player Injury Type Injury Date

Justin Miller elbow 09/13/2009

Noah Lowry ribs 03/27/2009

Kelvin Pichardo shoulder 06/28/2009

Emmanuel Burriss foot 09/01/2009

Henry Sosa shoulder 08/05/2009

Arizona (65-85, 5th, L3, 25 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Padres. 1-2 vs Rockies. The Diamondbacks did what no playoff contender recently could, defeating the Padres in a series. However, their successful week fell apart late, fitting given the two close games turned blowouts from Saturday and Sunday.

Pace: 70-92 (No change from last week)

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games on LAD.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Giants, 3 game home series vs Padres. Chase Field will close down for the season before October literally. Sunday's game against the Padres will be the last home game for the Snakes.

News: Arizona could save big money re: Mark Reynolds. It appears the third baseman will fall short of achieving "Super Two" status this year, which would prolong his arbitration eligibility one year, thereby saving the Diamondbacks over $3million. Reynolds has been such a constant force and has already set records (albeit in strikeouts) that it's easy to forget that he hasn't been in the league for very long.

Mark Reynolds

#27 / Third Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 03, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark Reynolds	143	533	91	142	28	1	42	97	73	203	24	9	.266	.358	.559

Conor Jackson's season is over after he ended his comeback bid after three games. Jackson is prepping for 2010, hoping he shows enough promise to be retained by Arizona.

Steve Gilbert answers questions in his latest inbox. First question: What is fate of catcher Montero? As suspected, he is seen as the absolute starter going forward. Also, Gilbert touches on the likelihood of Brandon Webb's $8.5million option being picked up.

Nick Piecoro also touches on this, noting that the D-Backs won't decide on Webb soon. They will have until 5 days after the World Series concludes to decide, and they are hoping the progress he makes (or doesn't make) makes for an easier decision. It is possible they will offer him a one-year deal below the $8.5million option year.

Doug Davis is a very loyal pitcher. With free agency looming, Davis suggests he would be open to re-joining Arizona or Milwaukee.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Conor Jackson played just three games before he had to shut it down, so he will not return this season. He'll join an instructional league tomorrow to scrape off a glut of rust. In the last 51 weeks, CoJack has less than 100 big league AB's.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Qualls	knee	08/31/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (90-60, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 5-1. 3-0 vs Pirates. 2-1 vs Giants. Los Angeles took a series from the Giants for consecutive weekends, helping to spread the distribution in the standings in the top three slots. Los Angeles has just three home games left.

Pace: 97-65. (No change)

Divisional Change: Gained 2 game lead on COL.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Nationals, 3 game road series @ Pirates. Los Angeles has arguably the easiest week on the road there is. They'll face the National League's worst two teams, who have the worst and 5th worst NL home record, respectively.

News: Ken Rosenthal mentioned in this Fox Sports video that the Dodgers' playoff rotation will start with lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, which should help against lefty-heavy Philadelphia or St. Louis, who has a strangely low OPS vs. LHP this year. The two would then be followed by Hiroki Kuroda and then either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland.

You might notice a big name missing from that mix - supposed ace Chad Billingsley, who has had a terrible second half (3-6 with a 5.49 ERA after the All-Star break. Joe Torre says that faulty mechanics are at heart of Billingsley's woes, more specifically that he is rushing his delivery, a flaw that isn't surprising for a young frustrated hurler.

Sample sizes can make general managers look like idiots - or they can make them look like geniuses. The latter has occurred for Ned Colletti after Ronnie Belliard's hot has found even Orlando Hudson resting on the bench more. Belliard wasted no time in sending a gutpunch to San Francisco's playoff hopes Saturday when he clubbed a grand slam off Brad Penny in the first inning, the first of three Los Angeles cashed in on Penny.

Ronnie Belliard

#3 / Second Base / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 07, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ronnie Belliard	18	57	6	17	4	0	4	14	3	13	1	0	.298	.333	.579

In limited duty, Belliard has given the Dodgers a very strong 5.7 RAR (runs over replacement), production that by himself completely squashes both Giants' deadline acquisitions combined. Freddy Sanchez (1.8) and Ryan Garko (-4.3) equate to -2.5 RAR. MLB Rumors discusses how this affects Belliard's value going forward.

In spite of Ned Colletti's big free agent acquisitions (Manny Ramirez and Randy Wolf) along with quiet successes like Belliard, some don't believe Colletti should be retained when he becomes a free agent this offseason. There's legitimate claim there. Almost $0.2billion in contracts were given to Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, and Colletti failed to land a notable starting pitcher at the deadline. The Los Angeles blog Dodgers Rumors ponders: Is The Ned Colletti Era Coming To an End?

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Clayton Kershaw, who separated his right shoulder, will return to the Dodgers Wednesday....to the bullpen.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (68-82, 5th, L2, 22.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Giants, 2-1 vs Rockies. The Padres haven't had a losing week since August 17-23, four weeks ago. In spite of their success, San Diego was assured of a losing season with their Friday loss at Pittsburgh.

Pace: 73-89 (+1).

Divisonal change: No change.

This Week: Last game of 4 game road series @ Pittsburgh tonight. 3 game road series @ Rockies. 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks. Sunday's game in Arizona represents the Padres final road game.

News: There isn't a whole lot of news going around the Padres' camp, but what there is predictably centers around the team's future.

For those that are still masochistic, check out more and more praise for rookie Everth Cabrera. Despite leaping organizations and making the jump from Single-A, Cabrera has posted a 104 OPS+ and .332 wOBA in MLB's most-pitcher friendly park. Not even Rox Girl could have predicted this.

Everth Cabrera

#1 / Short Stop / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-9

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 17, 1986

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Everth Cabrera	91	331	54	89	17	7	2	30	42	74	24	6	.269	.354	.381

Corey Brock went mad this week, writing multiple Cabrera stories. Here's one. And here's another .

With Cabrera as a cornerstone of the infieild, the Padres are optimistic about 2009 progress, as well they should be. They have been a legitimately strong club in the past month in spite of playing in a "shoddy division." Oh wait.

Via twitter, we learn that Kyle Blanks is done for the year, giving time to let his injured arch heal. The rookie posted a noteworthy 137 OPS+ in 172 PA's this year.

Transactions: Called up OF Luis Durango and RHP Ernesto Frieri.

Injuries: Activated RHP Mike Adams from the 15-day DL. Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has been out since Sept 8 with a strained calf, may return to action today with San Diego.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

What the Giants Should Have Done...

Grant — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:10:58 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

/1,000 words

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With the benefit of hindsight, it’s all so clear now. The question: how can the Giants improve a wretched offense? They went into the trade deadline with fistfuls of promising minor leaguers and a wild-eyed look. Gimme whatever offense you got, and I don’t care what it takes!

The answer wasn’t Freddy Sanchez. Moving from Manny Burriss to Sanchez within a season is like moving from Babe Danzig to Babe Ruth, but it didn’t really help. Sanchez didn’t play because of a shoulder injury, which is frustrating because team doctors gave his knee a clean bill of health. Sanchez didn’t play, Juan Uribe did and doubled the team home run total (at least, that’s what it felt like). For this, the Giants gave up their #2 pitching prospect. But Sanchez wasn’t the answer.

The answer wasn’t Ryan Garko, who would probably be the best first base option for the Giants since J.T. Snow’s fluky-good 2004 if Garko actually, you know, played. He’s a limited player, with most of his value coming as a southpaw-masher, but he made the mistake of struggling in the handful of at-bats that Bruce Bochy remembers now. That’s a big no-no. Randy Winn knew better. He hit against the Padres when he came to the National League, so he’s still playing. Edgar Renteria was a World Series hero, and I’m pretty sure Bochy watched that on TV, so Renteria still gets to play. Aaron Rowand started to stink at the exact wrong time, so that’s all Bochy remembers, and Rowand gets lifted for other wretched hitters in crucial situations. That’s how it works. So the answer wasn’t Ryan Garko. The guy can't even outhit Renteria from the bench, fer crying out loud.

The answer is actually a two-parter. There’s an answer for the crazy, risk-taking fools whose derring-do told them that the answer was for the Giants to go all-in. Throw whatever prospect to the wall you want; if the Giants got an impact player, by gum, it was worth it. That answer is Matt Holliday. Would a Tim Alderson/Scott Barnes package have bested the Cardinals’ offer of Brett Wallace? Maybe not, but let’s put it another way: Would you go back in time, trade Ryan Garko, Freddy Sanchez, and another prospect for Holliday? Uh…yes. Dang it. As long as I could have held onto John Bowker….

The answer for the protect-the-farm crowd, the folks who still foam at the mouth when they hear Alderson’s name, was simple: a right-handed reserve outfielder with pop.

This is all revisionist history, of course. At no point did I write a 1,000 screed demanding a right-handed reserve outfielder. I didn’t know, though, that Andres Torres would go down to injury on July 31. We didn’t know that Eugenio Velez would play over his head for a month and become a Bochy-approved starter. Velez has been a contributor over the last couple of months, but he never stopped being an awful option against left-handed pitchers (.241/.288/.353…in his minor-league career!) And we didn’t know that if Bochy didn’t play Winn every day, even against left-handers, the bus would explode and Sandra Bullock would die.

The answer was Ben Francisco, whom the Phillies got as a throw-in to the Cliff Lee deal. The answer was Jonny Gomes, who’s done well for the Reds filling in for various injured outfielders. The answer was a right-handed hitting outfielder with a little pop.

I’m not pointing fingers. Just saying. Dang it.

Post-Game Recap: The Giants Are Out of This Thing, and Running Down the Street To Avoid the Thing's Flaming Wreckage

Grant — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 05:37:49 -0000

You know what? I'm going to give full credit to Jorge De La Rosa on this one. He threw hard, he located well, and his offspeed stuff was impeccable. It wasn't the awful, disgusting, reprehensible offense that's usually awful, disgusting, and reprehensible when Pablo Sandoval is hitting, but even more awful, disgusting, and reprehensible when Sandoval is slumping. That's nitpicking. De La Rosa pitched a heck of a game. Credit where's credit's due.

The Rockies have 15 games left, and they lead the Giants by 3.5 games The Giants have 16 games left. Here's something to cheer you up:

Which scenario seems likely? The Rockies mess the bed, and the Giants sneak in playing the same ol' way they've been playing all season? The Rockies do well enough, but the Giants go nutty over the last two weeks and steam into the playoffs with pockets full of momentum? Yeah. This should be awesome.

Don't forget Pascual Perez's Wager from last night, though. This loss doesn't sting nearly as bad as it should*. This is a team with a flawed roster, managed by a guy who has found a way to make it worse. He took the rusty bicycle he was given, and decided that square tires would make for a smoother ride. There's no way this team should sniff the playoffs with this offense and this manager. It would be a historically bad postseason team at the plate.

Now, as I'm writing this, the Giants are mounting a furious rally. Bengie Molina just knocked in a run. Juan Uribe represents the tying run. The Rockies are bringing in Rafael Betancourt, a right-handed reliever. If Bochy allows Edgar Renteria to hit -- if he doesn't recognize that, inspiring grand slam notwithstanding, Renteria is one of the worst hitters in the National League, he's hurting, and the Giants have left-handed power...

...I stopped writing when Uribe hit into the almost double play. Watched the last three outs with my hands half-over my eyes. Three chances to get a single. Two of the ten worst hitters in the league. To be fair to Winn, he's a much better hitter left-handed, but, brother, that doesn't mean he's good. Schierholtz had some good takes, but he was overmatched. The team was overmatched tonight.

And Edgar Renteria got his ninth-inning at-bat against a right-handed pitcher. Hey, it was the same pitcher that Renteria hit the Grand Slam against, right? That must have some sort of significance, right? No reason to use the best hitter in AAA. No reason to use Winn right there, either. Nope, save Winn to hit for Rowand, who isn't doing so hot this year, but who's a wee bit better of a bet than a gimpy Edgar Renteria.

I hate synecdoche games. I really do.

As my head hits the pillow tonight, the only thing that will let me sleep is my hope that an also-ran Giants team will lead to a new manager in 2010. All I want is a manager who can judge talent on something other than whatever 50 at-bats happen to stick in his head.

They fought hard. Kind of proud of them. But right now Bruce Bochy's talking about Edgar Renteria's clutchitude. That's like watching the Secretary of Defense get excited about new trebuchets after watching Washington D.C. burn. I've never disliked a manager more. Search the archives for "Felipe Alou." I'll guess there's, oh, twenty mentions over a couple of years. I didn't think managers could ever make much of a difference, but I've never watched a manager so clueless as to what constitutes a talented hitter.

Night, all.

*obviously, this sentence was written before the ninth inning

Tim Lincecum dominates as Rockies lose fourth straight game to Giants

Rox Girl — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 05:05:54 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Welp, that didn't go like we wanted it to..,

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Tim Lincecum showed that his back was healthy, striking out eleven Rockies on the way to an easy win for the San Francisco Giants. The Rockies, meanwhile, must regroup and figure out a way to beat a team that has had all the answers against them lately as they continue the final three game set against San Francisco on Tuesday.

Jason Hammel gave up four runs, three in the second when the Giants strung together four straight singles to start the inning and later added a sacrifice fly, and the fourth run in the third inning when Bengie Molina hit a solo homerun.

The Giants fifth run scored thanks to a Juan Uribe single off Juan Rincon in the bottom of the eighth. A few hitters and a couple of relievers later in the same inning, Joel Peralta walked pinch hitter Fred Lewis with the bases loaded to score the Giants sixth run and then Eugenio Velez stabbed the Rockies with a grenade by hitting a bases clearing triple to increase the margin to the final score, 9-1.

The Rockies only run scored when Carlos Gonzalez tripled off of Lincecum with two outs in the seventh inning. A ball four pitch to Todd Helton that got past Bengie Molina and rolled to the backstop allowed Gonzalez to score from third.

82 - 63

Games Back: 3.5

Streak: Lost 3

Magic Number (wc): 15

The Giants close to within 3.5 games of the Rockies in the wild card chase with the win.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Giants must see history repeated

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

The playoffs will soon be out of reach

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San Francisco sees this series as a great opportunity, though really it is their last legitimate opportunity to pull back into the race. They will need to replicate the sweep they pulled off to close August to even pull within 1.5 games, and that won't be so easy. They are just 5-7 since that sweep, 2-7 in games not started by Brad Penny, whose rotation slot does not come up for the series.

Here's the scenario. After this series is over, the Giants will have 16 games left. If the Rockies sweep, the ensuing 7.5 game deficit effectively eliminates the Giants, but you probably already thought that. If the Rockies win the series, a 5.5 game deficit would be practically insurmountable. For reference, the Rockies surreal once-in-a-lifetime Rocktober run had them 4.5 games out with 16 back.

So if the Giants don't win this series, the Rockies are in the playoffs. Even if the Giants win the series though, they won't sweep again, though they need to. Given the Rockies have 9 of 15 games remaining at home after the series, catching the Rockies from a 3.5 game deficit would be extremely difficult as is. I would go as far as guaranteeing the playoffs at that point barring injuries. I just can't see lightning (a sweep) striking twice, even though they are tossing out the same Lincecum/Zito/Cain trio that debuted as a series triumverate with that sweep against the Rockies at the end of August.

The Giants see this as an opportunity, but really, the opportunity belongs to Colorado. If the Giants can't capilatize on their head-to-head battles with a sweep, the Rockies will have buried the Giants to the point of non-Rocktober-caliber elimination. Sweep or die.

San Francisco Giants (77-66, W1, 3rd, 4.5 GB WC, 7.5 GB Div)

Monday-Wednesday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

Bruce Bochy has atrociously constructed his lineup all season, and he hasn't learned. Sure, he has practically nothing to work with, but that's not enough of an excuse. I suppose perfect lineup construction wouldn't help them with how poor their bats are though. If you need a refresher course, check here or here or here. Sure adding Freddy Sanchez will help some, but he's not really a significant threat (his wOBA this year is worse than what Eric Young Jr has done so far, but with the Giants, it has been worse than Garrett Atkins' level). Here's the grossness:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - LF	.270	4	20	.319	.417	.321
Freddy Sanchez - 2B	.293	7	39	.328	.425	.326
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.322	21	77	.377	.541	.384
Bengie Molina - C	.260	17	70	.279	.430	.300
Ryan Garko - 1B	.270	13	51	.343	.432	.340
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.275	5	29	.308	.415	.307
Aaron Rowand - CF	.269	14	57	.326	.438	.333
Edgar Renteria - SS	.252	5	48	.309	.331	.284

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), two about average hitters (Rowand and Sanchez), two below average hitters (Schierholtz and Velez), one on the cusp of terrible (Molina) and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Bochy's glut of reserve infielders include Juan Uribe (.279, 12, 40), Travis Ishikawa (.254, 9, 35), Ryan Rohlinger (1-for-10), Jesus Guzman (2-for-16), Rich Aurilia (.225, 2, 15) and Kevin Frandsen (.146, 0, 1). Fred Lewis (.266, 4, 16), John Bowker (.205, 1, 5), Andres Torres (.250, 3, 16), and Randy Winn (.263, 2, 48) have gotten starts in the outfield as well. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.212, 1, 8) is Molina's backup catcher, while Buster Posey (0-1, K) has been called up to effectively wash Whiteside's jock.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The first time Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain pitched in the same series, they swept the Rockies at AT&T Park. Now they will try to do it again. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito is having a strong season, helped mostly by the Rockies. The Giants rank in the top three in just about every pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park, and their bullpen is very solid at the back end. As we have seen though, should a starter get chased early, or if a game goes extra innings, that bullpen is vulnerable.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	62	0	0	0	34	6	67.0	57	25	20	2	25	72	2.69	1.22

Brian Wilson, who I hear is dumb, has seven straight scoreless appearances (hey! - that's how many Heath Bell had coming into the weekend!). After Wilson, there's lefties Jeremy Affeldt, Dan Runzler and Madison Bumgarner to go with righties Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller, Waldis Joaquin, Joe Martinez and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants' UZR/150 has dropped three entire spots in the last two weeks, yet they still come in at MLB's 5th best, which slots them 3rd most valuable according to Fangraphs. Playing Velez at second is partly to blame for the fall, though Sanchez should be starting at least two of the games in the series there.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T squelches home runs, given there really is no "power alley." However, the spacious outfield has plenty of room for hits, and the park factor reflects it, coming in solidly on the offensive side at 103/104.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	29	26	1	0	0	0	150.1	177	81	72	12	38	107	4.31	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	13-5	29	28	4	2	0	0	200.1	150	59	52	9	55	233	2.34	1.02

Hammel has been the ultimate secret weapon for the Rockies at the back end of the rotation. Despite his opponents reading like an All-Star team (Cain x 2, Santana, Moyer, Randy Wells, Josh Johnson, Kershaw, Haren, Arroyo) in his last ten starts, the Rockies have won six of them. That's incredible for a fifth starter. We have a new dragon slayer, and he has the 11th best WAR in the NL, no kidding. He has strung together 8 straight starts of 3 ER or less. Dan O'Dowd earned his Christmas bonus. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the National League, but he is coming off of back spasms. On top of that, he only has one win in his last six starts, though that's not obviously his fault. You can't bet against Lincecum at home (8-1, 1.83 ERA), though Hammel has the ability to keep things interesting. I find it fitting that to slay the Giants, the Rockies begin with a David vs. Goliath matchup. Favors: GIANTS moderately

Tuesday, September 15, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 13-10 29 29 1 0 0 0 195.1 164 74 72 12 73 167 3.32 1.21

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Barry Zito 9-12 30 29 1 0 0 0 171.1 159 78 76 18 70 132 3.99 1.34

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-10	29	29	1	0	0	0	195.1	164	74	72	12	73	167	3.32	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	9-12	30	29	1	0	0	0	171.1	159	78	76	18	70	132	3.99	1.34

Ubaldo Jimenez returns to the rotation after getting a couple days off with a hamstring injury he sustained scoring a run. The injury bothered him a bit, as he surrendered three runs the following inning and lasted just six innings. He had gone 7 starts without allowing more than 2 ER and 8 starts of going more than 6.0 IP. Jimenez has lost just one of his 11 starts since the All-Star Break, and the Rockies are 9-2 in those starts. Zito struggled in his last two starts against two fairly unfrightening offenses (San Diego and Milwaukee) but, like Jimenez, Zito has not allowed more than 3 ER in a post-ASB start. He has feasted on Rockies hitters, since his strike-throwing loopy curve style goes against the Rockies strengths of patience and crushing fastballs. Zito is 1-0 with an anemic 0.42 ERA against the Rockies this year in three starts covering 21.1 IP. Favors: ROCKIES moderately.

Wednesday, September 16, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 14-9 29 28 0 0 0 0 166.2 159 86 81 20 75 170 4.37 1.40

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Matt Cain 13-5 29 29 4 0 0 0 196.1 162 60 57 20 68 151 2.61 1.17

Jorge de la Rosa has allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, part of an 11 of 15 string in which he has permitted two or less. As a starter, de la Rosa actually has a Runs Above Average of 30.8, a tick better than Matt Cain's 30.4, for what it's worth. I'll never get tired of noting this as long as it still rings true. The Rockies have lost just 2 of the last 16 games in which DLR has pitched. He has won both starts vs the Giants this season, though he was terrible in one of them. Matt Cain has won just one of his last 9 starts, though the Giants won five of those. He's still second in MLB in ERA/FIP disparity. He is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA vs Colorado in 4 starts this year and has very even home/road splits. The game has earned the late night national broadcast on ESPN. Favors: DRAW.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	14-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	166.2	159	86	81	20	75	170	4.37	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	13-5	29	29	4	0	0	0	196.1	162	60	57	20	68	151	2.61	1.17

My take

The Rockies will all but eliminate the Giants by winning at least one game. Winning the series is certainly possible though.

Brian Wilson has tossed seven straight scoreless outings, though only one featured no baserunners. Juan Uribe will start at least one game, maybe two, given his 5 September HR, hitting .349 for the month. Sergio Romo hasn't allowed even one hit his last five appearances.

Pablo Sandoval is hitting just .220 with zero dingers this month. Perhaps he returned from injury prematurely? Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria are both hitting under the Mendoza line this month. Merkin Valdez had that debacle against Ryan Spilborghs at Coors Field, but he was even worse Friday, allowing four runs without getting an out against Los Angeles.

Oddly, the Giants have no players on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Emmanuel Burriss (foot- 9/1) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Tim Lincecum missed his last start with back spasms but is expected to take the mound tonight, though he is still listed as "probable." Randy Johnson has seen no setbacks of yet in his attempt to return to action with the Giants in their bullpen after a trapezius injury in early July.

Poll

Will the Giants be vanquished?

Completely. Beating Lincecum will completely deflate the Giants, initiating their ensuing roll-over.

26 votes

Yes. The Rockies will win this series, placing the Giants further out than the Rockies were in 2007 at the same point.

59 votes

Almost. The Rox win one game, keeping the Gigantes on their death bed, but someone else will have to put the nail in the coffin.

91 votes

Nope. Lightning strikes twice, and the Giants are less than two games back. Hold on to your hats.

63 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed