SB Nation - Boone Logan

Game 162 Recap: Nationals 2, Braves 1 in 15 innings

gondeee — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:21:32 -0000

A season that most people just wanted to end goes out with a game that just wouldn't end. The announcers were having a good time of talking about the fact that they had run out of things to talk about, and the fans only stayed around because there was a post-game concert scheduled.

Things got so lean in the position player department that Martin Prado played right field for the first time in his career. That actually might be the highlight of the game. As they have done for the last week they just didn't do much hitting, and when they did have runners on base, they just didn't do much hitting. The only run was a Nate McLouth solo homerun in the 6th inning. McLouth almost won the game in the 13th with a shot that took the center fielder to the back of the warning track... there was a big sigh from the announcers, Joe and Boog, who were hoping that would have gone out.

It seems weird to talk about how well a starting pitcher did... wait, no it doesn't, that's par for the course for this team. Tim Hudson finished strong, pitching 7 innings allowing only one run and striking out 7. The bullpen also put in some great work, pitching 7 more innings without allowing a run. Boone Logan did in the 15th what Manny Acosta tried to do in the 14th, and that was end the game. The Braves almost came back in the bottom of the ninth, but you know, it's the Braves.

Final - 10.4.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	13	0
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	13	0
WP: Logan Kensing (1 - 2) LP: Boone Logan (1 - 1)

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Game 88 Recap: Braves 7, Rockies 8

gondeee — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 22:51:06 -0000

And here's another one we let get away. Instead of the Braves ending the first half at .500, they end the first half with a disappointing loss that they likely should have won -- a fitting end considering how their first half has gone so far.

Kris Medlen struggled with the walks and ended up getting yanked in the 5th inning. Boone Logan came on and restored order for a couple of innings. He got the first out in the seventh and then Bobby Cox pulls him for Manny Acosta?!? Here's a guy, Logan, who is the most rested of any of Atlanta's relievers, he had only thrown 31 pitches -- very economical for his third inning of work -- he was showing no signs of having trouble, and Cox takes him out of the game with no runners on. Not surprisingly that's where it all started to go wrong for Atlanta.

The sometimes-combustible Manny Acosta came into a game for the third consecutive day and promptly got shelled. Taking out the rested Logan for the worn out Acosta was a silly, silly decision, and it may have cost us the game because it allowed the Rockies to pull within one run. Eric O'Flaherty, working in his fourth consecutive game, came in for the last out in the seventh.

Then, with still a fresh and rested Luis Valdez in the bullpen, Cox calls on Peter Moylan in the eighth inning, because he hasn't been in a game in almost 15 hours. And what does he do? He gives up the tying run. Of course, Valdez comes in for the ninth and gives up the winning run, but that was a pressure packed situation to put the rookie making his major league debut in, and he may have responded differently if he was put into the game earlier when the lead was greater.

Ron Gant on the postgame said the Braves let this game get away because of sloppy defense. Okay, the play by Garret Anderson and Manny Acosta where each guy threw the ball away was some bad defense. But there ain't no defense to defend against the homerun that Acosta gave up to the next batter. Ron Gant is too much of a homer to tell us why the Braves really lost this game. In my book Bobby Cox gets a D- for the way he managed his relievers in this game.

Get used to more games like this where the bullpen blows the lead, BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN OVERUSED!!!

The offense did good work early, with Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, and Brooks Conrad leading the way.

Ugh! We f-ing had this game won. Our defense turned four double plays. We should have won this game.

Final - 7.12.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Atlanta Braves	3	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	7	11	2
Colorado Rockies	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	1	1	8	12	0
WP: Huston Street (3 - 1) LP: Luis Valdez (0 - 1)

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Rox face Atlanta's talented quartet of right handers to close out season's first half

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:00:25 -0000

More photos » by David Banks - AP

Another series, another diminutive leadoff starting center fielder that Pittsburgh traded away this season.

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Well, we needed that sweep. Now, we are guaranteed to have a winning record at the All-Star Break for the first time since 2006, when we were 44-43 before losing 8 of 9 and falling apart. (We were 44-44 in 2007). Now, provided we win one game against Atlanta, we'll recover from last weekend without having a losing homestand. Granted, you want better than a 5-5 homestand against Arizona, Washington and Atlanta. I'd be begrudgingly content with a series split and 6-4 homestand, but the goal was definitely to pull a 7-3 mark going into the All-Star Break.

In case you're into scoreboard watching, San Francisco sits alone, one game ahead of the Rockies in the wild card chase. They draw San Diego for four games while we grapple with the Braves, so it will be tough to maintain ground without a solid series from our end.

Atlanta is about as straight down the middle average as any team in the league overall. They are two games under .500, two games under .500 on the road, and their -8 run differential alludes to an identical 41-43 record. However, the only team that has managed 7 wins in their last 10 in the NL is the Braves. After winning a game vs the Red Sox June 28, Atlanta swept Philadelphia before losing three straight, including a hiccup series loss at Washington. They rebounded to take the last two games of a series vs the Wrigley Field.

As Rox Girl pointed out in the Game Wrap comments last night, the Braves have had the Rockies number historically, winning every season series sans 1996, 1997 and 2005. The two teams split a four game set in Atlanta, notable as is was just a week before Clint Hurdle's firing. That means a series win would ensure not only a winning road trip but a season series victory over the Braves for just the 4th time in 17 seasons.

The Braves' blog is the Talking Chop . The Rockies are definitely the better team, but the starters for Bobby Cox could endanger the series win we desperately desire.

Atlanta Braves (41-43, W2, 3rd, 4.5 GB)

Thursday-Sunday: 4-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: C-

Team statistics suggest a slightly below average offense. Their batting average is 15th, HR is 26th, 22nd in runs, 19th in wOBA and a 22nd best team value of -21.3. Since McLouth has joined the club, those numbers are still a little lower than the clout the lineup can produce. Emergence of better bats in right and at second in Prado and Diaz allow for a better lineup as well, though they remain 29th in stolen bases.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Nate McLouth - CF	.272	14	49	.349	.484	.367
Martin Prado - 2B	.324	4	16	.388	.506	.387
Chipper Jones - 3B	.292	9	40	.408	.472	.375
Brian McCann - C	.300	8	35	.380	.485	.377
Garrett Anderson - LF	.274	5	30	.306	.400	.308
Yunel Escobar - SS	.292	7	43	.354	.427	.325
Casey Kotchman - 1B	.275	4	31	.345	.398	.328
Jeff Francoeur - RF	.243	5	33	.276	.337	.270

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features three very strong hitters batting close to an All-Star level (Prado, Jones, McCann), above average hitters (McLouth), two slightly below average sticks (Kotchman and Escobar), one solidly below average (Anderson) and one terrible hitter (Francoeur). Note the dropoff to the light hitters after McCann.

Jeff Francoeur's struggles have opened the door for Matt Diaz (.309/.380/.474), who has performed very well. The two have split duties recently, though Francoeur got the start in the last two games. Martin Prado (.324/.388/.504)has not only softened the blow of losing Kelly Johnson and Omar Infante to injuries, but he has been better than both in his 170 ABs. In addition to Diaz, the bench is filled with C David Ross (.279, 6, 15), IF's Diory Hernandez (.135, 1, 1 in 72 ABs) and Brooks Conrad (5-14, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and OF Gregor Blanco (.190, 0, 1 in 42 ABs). Jordan Schafer was sent to AAA when Atlanta acquired Nate McLouth.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

Fangraphs lists the Braves as having the 5th best staff in the bigs. Their ERA is 6th at 3.83, and their ERA/FIP/tRA splits for starters and relievers are 3.75/3.65/4.02 and 3.99/3.63/3.73. That's very solid. Four starters come in with an above average tRA, while only Boone Logan is below average in the pen.

Rafael Soriano has supplanted Mike Gonzalez as Bobby Cox' closer - Gonzalez is now the setup man despite having a fine season himself. They are joined in the pen by lefty Eric O'Flaherty and righties Manny Acosta, Boone Logan, Kris Medlen, and Peter Moylan.

The D: D

The Braves have committed 55 errors, 11th most in the league. Their .983 Flg % is slightly below average, though their range is near the bottom via their -5.0 UZR/150. Fangraphs lists them as the 27th most valuable defense.

Prado, Kotchman and either RF are above average defensively, while everyone else is a liability, especially the old man Chipper and his new LF Garrett. Basically, all the plus defenders are on the right side while all the bad ones are on the left side, and up the middle. Hit it to left.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Tommy Hanson 4-0 2.25 1.25 23 18

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Tommy Hanson	4-0	2.25	1.25	23	18

Hanson has been impressive in his six MLB starts this year - other than an Adam Dunn solo home run in his last start, he has been unscathed in his past four starts. Note, however, that he is a bit fortunate, allowing a tiny .227 BABip (especially with a subpar defense), a very high 89.4% runners stranded rate and a very low 1.28 K/BB rate. All that leads to a 5.49 tRA, making him the only below average starter in the rotation, believe it or not. Don't get scared of the hype or numbers - patience and a little timely hitting and we'll get to him.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	8-3	3.76	1.35	52	31

Cook has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. His best start of the season came at Atlanta, where he pitched a 4-hit complete game shutout.

Friday, July 10, 7:10 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Derek Lowe 7-7 4.56 1.43 56 36

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Derek Lowe	7-7	4.56	1.43	56	36

After a string of six straight quality starts, Lowe has lost four straight decisions, allowing crooked numbers to the Orioles, Yankees and Nationals. His peripherals remain solid, especially considering an NL-career high BABip, but he is effectiveness is eroding.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	6-8	3.86	1.33	93	45

Jimenez was listed by Jerry Crasnick as the sixth most hard luck pitcher this year. Hard to argue. Cover up W-L, and he looks flat scary. He has lost two straight decisions and has allowed 4 runs in three of his past five starts.

Saturday, July 11, 6:10 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Jair Jurrjens 6-7 2.91 1.26 75 41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jair Jurrjens	6-7	2.91	1.26	75	41

Jurrjens is both a tough luck pitcher and a lucky pitcher. His ERA and any peripherals suggest he should have a much better record, but he also has the 17th greatest helpful split in ERA/FIP in MLB. He was 2nd in that category the last time he faced the Rockies, but the effect is still there. He has lost five straight decisions despite allowing no more than four runs in any start, doin gso 3 times in those 7 games. He allowed just one run in 7 IP against the Rockies earlier this year.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	11-5	3.61	1.30	54	38

Marquis can break Franklin Morales' franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings by shutting the Braves out for the first three innings. He can also ensure that he leads MLB at the All-Star Break with a 12th win.

Sunday, July 12, 1:10 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Javier Vazquez 6-7 2.95 1.05 136 23

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Javier Vazquez	6-7	2.95	1.05	136	23

Vazquez was #1 on Crasnick's tough-luck list, and he was the obvious choice. His statistics suggest he's a shoo-in for an All-Star spot, but that record cost him a spot. His FIP is a ridiculous 2.58 and his tRA is 2.95, so that sub-3.00 ERA is legit. He trails only Tim Lincecum in strikeouts in the NL, trails just Dan Haren in K/BB, and he's allowed 2 or less runs in 7 of 8 starts. He threw five scoreless innings against the Rox earlier this year, striking out 6.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	5-4	4.07	1.40	59	21

Hammel's ERA has hovered in the low 4's for the last few weeks. He has five quality starts in his past seven and has won five of his last six decisions, the only loss coming while allowing one run in 8 IP in Los Angeles.

Rafael Soriano has been unscored upon in 11 of 12 outings, allowing just four hits in those 12 IP. Casey Kotchman (7-18, 2HR), Matt Diaz (9-19, 3 2B), Martin Prado (12-29, 6 2B) and Nate McLouth (11-28, 2 HR) are coming off a strong previous week.

Jeff Francoeur is cold as always, getting just two singles in his last 19 trips with 6 K's and no BBs. Brian McCann (6-27) and Garrett Anderson (4-21) had tough weeks.

RHP's Tim Hudson (elbow) and Jorge Campillo (trapezius) are on the 60day DL. Omar Infante (hand), Greg Norton (ankle), Jo-Jo Reyes (hamstring), Kelly Johnson (wrist), Buddy Carlyle (upper back) and Jeff Bennett (hand) are on teh 15-day DL.

Poll

What will our record be at the All-Star Break?

49-39: Series sweep keeps us rolling into the break, ten games over for the first time since 2007.

13 votes

48-40: We should be able to pull out a series win here

71 votes

47-41: Series split - There's just no way to win a season series against Atlanta. Curse of...Vinny Castilla?

67 votes

46-42: By drawing these four starters while our offense is struggling (Washington doesn't count - you know this), Atlanta still has our number and takes the series

20 votes

45-43: A home trouncing sours an otherwise successful first half

7 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

When Eight Runs Aren't Enough. The Atlanta Braves Beat The Washington Nationals, 9-8 Final.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:16:14 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals reliever Ron Villone (41) is pulled by manager Manny Acta (14) against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning of a baseball game, Friday, July 3, 2009, in Washington. Nationals catcher Josh Bard, back left, and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (11) look on. The Braves won 9-8.(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Quick Take:

DC lefty Ross Detwiler allowed 10 hits and 5 ER in 3.1 IP against Atlanta tonight, walking 2 and striking out just 1, while throwing 86 pitches to 22 batters, who combine for 4 doubles and 6 singles to chase the 23-year-old starter in the fourth. In spite of Detwiler's inability to keep anything down, when the Washington Nationals handed the ball to right-handed reliever Jesus Colome in the seventh inning, he took the mound with the game tied at 5-5. Two outs and two walks later, Colome surrendered a three-run HR on an 0-1 fastball to Brooks Conrad, yes Brooks Conrad, who collects the first HR of his MLB career. Colome had nothing, but it was actually the run Ron Villone and Julian Tavarez combined to force in in the eighth that is eventually the difference as Washington rallies for two in the ninth but falls one short in the end dropping a 9-8 decision to Atlanta in DC's Nationals Park.

Braves win, 9-8 final.

Miss The Game, The DC Faithfull Were Watching...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

BACKPAGE:

• The Ron Villone And Julian Tavarez Show.

• SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Did You See How Far Adam Dunn Hit That HR????

DWDT: 19.

Nationals now 22-55.

BACK PAGE:

• The Ron Villone And Julian Tavarez Show...

Ron Villone threw a 2-2 slider to Martin Prado in the eighth that was lined to right for a leadoff double. Villone then walked Chipper Jones on five pitches and gave up a sac bunt to Brian McCann to put two runners in scoring position for Yunel Escobar, who got four balls and a free pass that ended Villone's night after 0.1 IP, 1 hit and 2 walks with the three runners on base his if they scored. If? Julian Tavarez replaces Villone and promptly walks the first Brave he faces, missing with a full-count fastball low and inside to force in a run on the 3rd walk of the inning.

• SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Did You See How Far Adam Dunn Hit That HR????

Yes, Adam Dunn did hit another tape measure blast to right on a 1-0 fastball from Atlanta Braves' right-hander Kenshin Kawakami in the third to give Washington a 4-3 lead over Atlanta, but a half-inning later the Braves were back up 5-4 when Ross Detwiler gave up three-straight one-out singles and Tyler Clippard gave up an RBI double to Yunel Escobar after starting the Braves' shortstop with three straight balls. Josh Bard's RBI ground out tied it at 5-5 after five, and then Ron Villone...well you know the rest...

GAME REPORT:

Atlanta Braves At Washington Nationals. 77 or 78 of 162.

Ross Detwiler vs Nate McLouth as the game gets underway in Nationals Park. Willie Harris fields McLouth’s grounder on the grass in right and throws across his body to Nick Johnson at first. Martin Prado grounds weakly to second. Nyjer Morgan motors over to make the grab in right center robbing Chipper Jones of extra bases and ending the top of the first...The newest National, Nyjer Morgan works the count full against Kenshin Kawakami and takes a leadoff walk in front on Nick "Two-Spot" Johnson. Nyjer Morgan steals second, sliding in headfirst ahead of the throw. Nick Johnson gets called out looking at strike three low and outside. Ryan Zimmerman pops the first pitch he sees up into foul territory off third. Adam Dunn takes a low 3-2 pitch for ball four. Josh Willingham brings Morgan around with a line drive to left. 1-0 Nationals. Cristian Guzman K’s looking to end the first.

Brian McCann hits a fly ball to right and runs slowly to second coming in ahead of Willingham’s throw wide of the bag. Yunel Escobar’s bunt moves McCann to third. Matt Diaz rips a line drive to center to score McCann and tie it at 1-1. Nyjer Morgan backs up all the way to the angle in the outfield wall in center to catch the second out off Francoeur’s bat. Casey Kotchman goes back up the middle with a two-out single to center. Ross Detwiler walks the opposing pitcher to load the bases. Detwiler drops a two-strike bender on Nate McClouth to end a long Braves’ second...Josh Bard hits a long fly ball to McLouth in deep center.Willie Harris sneaks a 1-0 liner in under McLouth’s glove in center, and speeds around to second. Ross Dewtiler’s grounder to second hits off a diving Martin Prado’s glove, Harris scores from second, 2-1 DC. Nyjer Morgan lines out to Kotchman at first. Nick Johnson hits a trademark single to center to score Detwiler from second. NJ™ 3-1 DC. Ryan Zimmerman pops up again to end the second.

Martin Prado doubles over first to start the third. Chipper Jones doubles off the out-of-town scoreboard to score Prado from second, 3-2 Nationals. Ross Detwiler fields a grounder back to the mound, looks Chipper back to second and throws McCann out at first. Yunel Escobar doubles to left and Adam Dunn doesn’t even bother with a throw. Chipper scores to tie it at 3-3. Ross Detwiler leaves another fastball up for Matt Diaz, who singles to center. Jeff Francoeur grounds weakly to first. Casey Kotchman gets the intentionals. Kenjin Kawakami flies out to Morgan to end the Braves’ third...Adam Du--SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! A HR to the upper deck in right, 4-3 DC. Josh Willingham swings over a two-strike bender. Cristian Guzman sends a flare into right. Josh Bard grounds weakly to third. Willie Harris gets the intentionals. Detwiler K’s to end the third.

Ross Detwiler’s back in the fourth. Nate McLouth rolls a weak grounder to first for Nick Johnson to handle. Martin Prado singles and takes second on a pitch from Detwiler that bounces a foot in front of the plate. Prado scores from second on a Chipper Jones’ liner to left, the throw in is late, 4-4 ballgame. Brian McCann singles through second to chase Detwiler. Yunel Escobar will face Tyler Clippard. Escobar takes a 3-1 pitch to left and off the wall. 5-4 Braves. Diaz and Francoeur go down swinging to end the fourth...Kawakami gets Nyjer Morgan swinging at an 0-2 bender inside. Nick Johnson flies to center, Nate McLouth makes a sliding catch to take away a trademarker. Ryan Zimmerman grounds back to the mound to end the Nationals’ fourth...

Casey Kotchman pops up behind short for the first out of the fifth. Guzman fields and throws from deep in the hole to get Kawakami at first. Ryan Zimmerman catches a pop fly off of McLouth’s bat...Adam Dunn fouls strike three into McCann’s glove. Josh Willingham can’t get out of the way of a fastball inside. Cristian Guzman grounds back to the mound, Kawakami tries for the DP at second and throws it away. Second and third for Bard. Kawakami replaced Boone Logan. Josh Bard grounds to short to score Willingham from third, 5-5 ballgame. Willie Harris flies weakly to right.

Tyler Clippard vs Martin Prado to start the sixth. Prado pops out to Zimmerman in foul territory down the line in left. Chipper Jones lines to Nyjer Morgan in center. Morgan backs up to catch Brian McCann’s fly ball to center...Alberto Gonzalez hits a soft liner to first. Nyjer Morgan grounds weakly to second. Nick Johnson flies out to left to end the Nationals’ sixth.

Jesus Colome starts the seventh against Yunel Escobar. Leadoff walk. Matt Diaz gets a sac bunt down to advance Escobar to second. Jeff Francoeur rips a grounder to third, unfortunately Zimmerman plays there. Casey Kotchman works a two-out walk. Brooks Conrad gets a fastball in his wheelhouse and the kid hits it out of the park, three-run HR, 8-5 Braves’ lead...Ryan Zimmerman vs Peter Moylan. Zimmerman reaches on an infield single. Moylan walks Dunn. Josh Willingham rips a grounder to third, Chipper makes a diving play and gets the force at second. Cristian Guzman hits a line drive to left, Matt Diaz makes the catch and fires first almost doubling up Willingham as Zimmerman scores. 8-6 Braves. Bard grounds out to second to end the comeback attempt.

Ron Villone vs Martin Prado in the eighth. Prado doubles down the line in right to start the frame. Ron Villone walks Chipper Jones, and McCann bunts both runners over. VIllone gives Yunel Escobar the intentionals to load’em up for Matt Diaz. Julian Tavarez vs Diaz. 3-2 pitch, low, ball four. 9-6 Braves on the forced-in run. Garret Anderson flies out to right, Willingham fields and throws it back in to hold Chipper Jones at third. Casey Kotchman grounds out to second to end the Braves’ eighth...Mike Gonzalez vs Anderson Hernandez. Hernandez takes a high curve for a called strike three. Austin Kearns K’s on a called strike in under his arms. Nyjer Morgan K’s swinging to end the eighth.

Joe Beimel gets Gregor Blanco looking for the first out of the ninth. Martin Prado lines to left center, Nyjer Morgan speeds over to make the grab. Beimel throws a pick-off attempt by first. Chipper Jones gets the intentionals to bring up McCann. Beimel gets a swinging K to end the frame...Nick Johnson uses his Discerning Eye to draw a leadoff walk. Ryan Zimmerman walks in front of Dunn. Adam Dunn pops a 1-2 pitch up over third. Josh Willingham swings through a 2-2 heater up high. Cristian Guzman rips a high heater to right for a two-run double, Johnson and Zimmerman score, 9-8 Braves. Josh Bard grounds the first pitch he sees to first, Kotchman tosses to Soriano to end it. Braves win, 9-8 final.

Nationals now 22-55.

Braves place reliever Jeff Bennett on the DL

gondeee — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 19:53:24 -0000

According to a Twitter post from Mark Bowman:

The Braves have placed reliever Jeff Bennett on the 15-day DL with a broken left hand. According to a source, he punched a door.

Nice. So he's not good at baseball and he's not that smart either. "Hey, let's use the part of my body that is my livelihood as a weapon."

Left-handed reliever Boone Logan replaces Bennett on the roster. He had a 3.28 ERA at Gwinnett, with a .205 BAA, and 39 strikeouts in 35.2 IP.

There's some minor league movement today as well, with RHP Jeff Lyman going from Mississippi to Gwinnett, and LHP Richard Sullivan going from the Beach to Mississippi, and getting the start tonight in place of Lyman.

The Javier Vazquez Trade: Great for the Braves, Questionable for the White Sox

Peter Bendix — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:00:05 -0000

The Chicago White Sox have traded Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez.

I respect Kenny Williams. I think he’s an above-average GM, even though he’s not particularly saber-friendly. However, he has made two very questionable moves in the last two weeks – first, he dealt Nick Swisher to the Yankees for essentially nothing, and now he’s traded Javier Vazquez to the Braves for a utility man and three prospects.

When Williams traded for Nick Swisher before last season, he essentially cleaned out an already bare farm system. At the time, I thought Williams gave up an appropriate amount for Swisher, but I questioned the timing of the move; I didn’t think the White Sox would be particularly competitive in 2008, and I wondered why they were playing for short-term success.

I was wrong. Although Swisher didn’t play well, the White Sox won the Central Division and made the playoffs. It appeared that Williams’s gamble to go for it in the short-term paid off; although his team was bounced from the playoffs in the first round, any season in which you make the playoffs is a good season. And, considering their success in 2008 and the composition of the roster (namely, several of their most productive players are rather old), it makes sense for the White Sox to go for broke once again in 2009, in what looks to be a very weak division.

So what does Williams do? He trades two of his main players in exchange for backup infielders and prospects. This begs the question: what is Kenny Williams doing?

It looks like Williams is trying to play the dangerous game of “rebuilding on the fly.” He wants to keep his major league team competitive in 2009 while re-stocking his farm system at the same time. In theory, this is a good idea: you build for the future without sacrificing much in the short-term. But in practice, it’s extremely difficult to pull off. By attempting to build for the present and the future, many teams often times do neither. The Central Division is there for the taking in 2009, but Williams made his team worse at the major league level with these two trades. Furthermore, while the White Sox’s farm system was nearly completely barren before the trade, the system is still well-below-average after the trade.

Williams needs to make a decision: is he going to seriously try to win the division in 2009, or is he building for 2010 and beyond? If it’s the former, he needs to add to his team, especially his starting pitching, as the current roster probably isn’t good enough to win even a weak division. If it’s the latter, Williams needs to acknowledge that to himself and make a concerted effort to trade some more of his veterans who have value – namely, Jermaine Dye and perhaps Mark Buehrle or Jim Thome – in order to further stock his farm system. Teams that attempt to rebuild on the fly often times end up with a mediocre team in the present and a mediocre farm system.

As for the Braves, this is an absolutely fantastic trade. Some may look at the Braves 2008 record of 72-90, coupled with the two super-powers ahead of them, and conclude that the Braves chances of competing in 09 are remote. However, it appears as if Frank Wren understands that his team is not nearly as bad as their record indicates. Their third-order record in 2008 was 79-83, and that was in a season wrecked by injuries and a terrible bullpen.

In reality, the Braves are probably somewhere around a .500 team. Adding Vazquez and his 128 tRA+ is a huge upgrade over some of the scrubs that the Braves were throwing out there every fifth day. Furthermore, the Braves gave up very little of any consequence for them. The biggest piece in the deal was catcher Tyler Flowers, who would be blocked by Brian McCann even if he was to develop perfectly. Losing Lillibridge won’t hurt them at all, and while the two teenagers in the deal (Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez) have high ceilings, they are very far from the majors and this quite risky. Essentially, the Braves cashed in their best trade bait in exchange for an undervalued starting pitcher.

However, if the Braves are serious about competing in 2009, they will need to add another piece or two. Rumor has it that the Braves are preparing a five-year offer to AJ Burnett – the exact details haven’t been released yet, but if true, this would make the Braves true contenders in the NL East. The Braves have several minor leaguers who are nearly ready to produce at the major league level – namely, center fielder Jordan Schafer and pitcher Tommy Hanson – and if the Braves can sign Burnett they are going to be in the race, alongside the Phillies, Mets, and maybe even the Marlins. The White Sox, meanwhile, are no longer the favorites to win the AL Central unless they add to their major league team.

Reading The Vazquez Trade Tea Leaves

The Cheat — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 07:12:30 -0000

It now appears as if most outlets are in agreement on the return from the Javier Vazquez trade.

Braves get: Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Late Inning Headaches
White Sox get: Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, Brent Lillibridge, Santos Rodriguez, $23M lighter

It's late, and I got preoccupied planning for a downtime that didn't exsist, so I'll just point you to Jim's completely fictional blog for some specifics on the players the Sox are receiving. I'd like to spend some more time talking about the bigger picture.

What are the White Sox Doing?

The simple answer is dumping payroll, getting younger. But closer inspection--hell, it doesn't even take close inspection--reveals another force is at work, a winter cleaning of Ozzie Guillen's doghouse.

In two trades the Sox have purged themselves of three players in whom Guillen no longer had confidence. Nick Swisher played his way out of town with a pouting act and a .197 second-half batting average. Vazquez chartered his flight with a 13.22 ERA in his final 4 starts as a member of the White Sox, taking Boone Logan and his 38 baserunners in his final 10 IP along with him as a carry-on.

Unlike the Swisher trade, this deal netted the Sox some prospects with some real upside. Tyler Flowers is shooting up prospect lists after his 12 homer performance in the AFL, where KW is said to have "drooled over" him. He's a big body who won't stick behind the plate long term, but would be a huge get if he can provide adequately-below-average defense for a few years. Jon Gilmore is a young, toolsy third baseman with power potential who struggled in his brief foray into A-ball, but hit well in rookie ball. (Red flag: has just 19 walks in 522 minor league at-bats) Santos Rodriguez is unknown who struck out a bunch of rookie leaguers while pitching from the pen as a league-repeater.

While those 3 figure to spend all of the '09 season in the minor leagues, Brent Lillibridge should find himself competing for a spot on the Sox roster. Not that I have any idea how he fits, or even why he deserves such a right. To say I'm not a fan of Lillibridge's is an understatement. I didn't like what I saw from him in the '07 futures game (admittedly, the only time I've seen him), and he's done nothing at the plate to change my mind in the 18 months since then.

Moreover, I don't really understand where he fits in the Sox plans. They've added Wilson Betemit and Jayson Nix to their in-house candidates, Josh Fields and Chris Getz at 3B and 2B, respectively, and figure to officially add Dayan Viciedo soon. Though, I've already expressed my doubts about his ability to compete for a job this spring. I don't think Lillibridge is here to take Alexei's shortstop gig away from him. I suppose he might be competing for a utility role--he apparently has a good glove--with Betemit figured to keep third base warm for Viciedo. Lillibridge was once thought by some to be a candidate to replace the outgoing Andruw Jones in Atlanta's center field, but he couldn't find his way onto the '08 roster, and after posting a .294 AAA OBP and a consistent 3:1 K/BB ratio above A-ball, I'd say it's a safe bet that he shouldn't find his way onto the Sox '09 roster either.

If there's any single reason to be put off by this deal, aside from acquiring what looks like another future 1B/DH type, or failing to acquire a young starter in return, or Lillibridge in general, or that the Sox don't figure to have get any benefit out of the deal in '09, it's that John Schuerholz and his scouting staff tend to come out on top in these type of deals. (Note: I know he's no longer technically the GM, but it's still his staff and he's the F'n team president.) Last year he stole Jair Jurrgens from Detroit. And the year before that it was Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez. The last deal that's truly comparable to this one, however, is the Hudson trade. Dan Meyer never turned into anything and Juan Cruz, despite his strikeout rate and type-A status, has not delivered on his former promise. Reportedly the Sox were allowed to pick 4 from a list of 5 prospects. No doubt the Braves felt safe losing any of the players listed.

What does the rotation look like now?

As of this moment the Sox have 3 starters, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. The immortal Jeff Marquez, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda will fight for the remaining two spots, though one of Richard/Poreda will likely end up in the pen as a LOOGY with potential. Lance Broadway and Jack Egbert are next in line for a starting spot, which, along with Marquez and his terrible AAA K-rate, is probably why the Sox are looking for a young starter in return in the rumored Jermaine Dye trades. Jose Contreras may return sometime late in '09, but it's best to simply think of him as lost for the season and be pleasantly surprised if he exceeds expectations.

No really, what are the White Sox doing?

I can't say for sure. The winter meetings are still a week away, and the Sox have already cut their projected '09 payroll down to the $96M range. Perhaps the economy has hit them hard. Perhaps they are embarking on the rebuilding that should have started in May of '07. Perhaps they're clearing payroll to make a run at a mystery free agent, even though they'd swear otherwise. Perhaps they're clearing room to lock up their arbitration eligible (Jenks) or soon-to-be eligible players (Q!, Danks and Floyd) and buy out a couple years of free agency, a return to the cost-certainty-era Sox. There's only one thing I can say for certain, this will not be the White Sox last move of the off-season. I'm almost expecting Dye to be dealt at the Winter Meetings, netting a young starter in return, and picking up a free-agent outfielder on the cheap as the market craters late in January. Whatever happens figures to be exciting, surprising, and should give us plenty of discussion fodder for the rest of the off-season.

The Javier Vazquez trade

Adam J. Morris — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:13:37 -0000

Javier Vazquez has supposedly been traded to the Atlanta Braves, along with Bob Sturm lookalike Boone Logan, for Jo-Jo Reyes, Brent Lillibridge, and another "top prospect."

Vazquez has 2 years left at $23 million on his deal. He's also had remarkably consistent FIPs the past three years -- 3.86, 3.80, and 3.74 -- which belies his 2006 and 2008 ERAs in the high 4s.

My initial reaction was that this was a bad deal for Atlanta, but now, I'm thinking otherwise. It depends on the final prospect, of course -- I can't imagine Jordan Schafer or Tommy Hanson are in this deal, which would change things -- but Reyes is a fairly generic nice lefty pitching prospect and Lillibridge is a guy who hasn't lived up to his statty hype, and looks much more like a future utility guy than a qualify MIF.