SB Nation - Travis Buck

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part I

Tyler Bleszinski — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:00:46 -0000

The A's did make some strides forward in 2009 despite finishing with nearly an identical record the past three seasons. They have a good core of young players who appear primed to only get better, and despite the last week of stumbling baseball, the team was one of baseball's surprises in the second half.

With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Wallace, Daric Barton, Rajai Davis and the rest of the team coming back with more experience, 2010 is looking up for us green and gold faithful. Billy Beane is exceptionally busy wrapping up the season and already starting to look ahead, so I appreciate him taking the time out to chat with me this past week. This is the first part of the interview. I will be running the second part first thing Tuesday morning. Enjoy.

Blez: When I talked to you in spring training it looked like you felt like this team could've gone either way. You were hesitant to say it was going to excel. You didn't seem to know what you were going to have.

Billy Beane: If you point to something right away, we had so many young and unproven starting pitchers in the rotation. You just didn't really know how they were going to react and it's hard to predict where you're going to go if you don't know where your pitching is. I think when we spoke it was right around the time when we were just becoming aware of some of the injury possibilities that ended up happening. The two most obvious were Duchscherer and Joey Devine. When you have so many rookie pitchers getting their first taste of the major leagues, it's very difficult to predict where you're going to go.

Blez: What would your assessment on 2009 be then? We're closing in on the final week of the season here.

Beane: It almost feels like two different seasons. I'm very pleased with the second half. I think we've played pretty well and we've surprised some people because we've played so well in particular after some of the bigger name players weren't here anymore. In particular the Holliday trade, and we've made other changes. But I think the most encouraging thing has been the way we've performed in the second half as well as the development of some of these players who I think are going to be here for a long time, which was first and foremost our goal this year. It's been the last couple of years that we've been trying to build that foundation of young talent that people can look forward to seeing for the next few years and creating a winning core for the foreseeable future. For the first time you really started to see that. You can look at some of the young players like Andrew Bailey who made the All Star team as a closer. Certainly Brett Anderson's performance and Trevor Cahill's improvement. Gio (Gonzalez) has made progress this year. Raj Davis, on the offensive side, has come on and shown himself to be a really good major league centerfielder. Ryan Sweeney as well as Kurt Suzuki's continued development and I know I'm going to leave people out. Cliff Pennington has performed very well in the second half. I think if you look around the diamond you'll see that these guys are going to be here for a while and they've proven over the second half that they can perform at the major league level. And as we continue to add guys from our minor league system, guys who are highly thought of, you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Blez: You mentioned people being surprised that the team picked up and became a better team when you ultimately traded away or got rid of some of the "name" guys like Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera. Some of those guys we all expected more from at the beginning of the year. Is there a point where you might've said, "Maybe instead of bringing in some of those guys, maybe I should've just started with the youth at the beginning of the year and perhaps they would've matured and gotten to that point?"

Beane: That's a good question. Personally I always like the idea of if you're trying to rebuild to just got full bore and do it. But there's also a balance as well. In fairness you have to understand a guy like Cliff Pennington probably benefitted from going back and starting the year in Triple-A. What we've seen this year even relative to last year is that he was much more ready to come up this year and contribute than last year. I don't think you could say that that would've been the case in April. But it's a fair question and certainly one that you think about. I do think there is something to be said about having some of those older guys in here so as not to put the pressure on those younger guys to perform. When we made some of these trades to make the commitment to the younger guys it was a different point in the season and I think it allowed them to relax and realize they were going to be able to play every day. They would realize they could make a mistake and still be in there. I'm not sure that that would've been the case had you started that way from the outset. You might've had a different mindset from the younger players. Keep in mind that some of the holdover guys are young too. Those players are different ones than they were in April. Even though we see Kurt Suzuki as the established guy, he's a guy that continues to improve as is Ryan Sweeney. I think having some of those veteran guys gave them the opportunity to continue some of that development. When the baton was handed off to them, they were more prepared then they were in April.

Blez: You were talking about some of those veteran guys you traded away. And obviously it hurt the team quite a bit that Matt Holliday didn't come close to his career numbers with the A's. There was speculation on AN, everything from he knew he was a short timer here in Oakland so he didn't care, to league adjustment, to the adjustment to not being at Coors Field. Why do you think he didn't come close to what he's doing now in St. Louis?

Beane: The first thing I can put to rest is that he didn't care because that was absolutely not the case. Matt was an absolute professional here. If anything he was probably guilty of putting too much pressure on himself than people know publicly. Matt had impeccable work habits and was a pro. There was probably a bit of an adjustment period. But keep in mind even right before he went to St. Louis, he was really starting to get going here.

Blez: His numbers definitely were going up before he was dealt.

Beane: Yeah you could see he was starting to feel more like himself and get it going. The fact that he took off when he went there was not a surprise. Certainly the lineup to hit in around Pujols, I think it became a perfect environment for him. I think had Matt stayed here he would've returned to his career numbers and I think he was headed that way before he left. I can tell you this. He was an absolute professional when he was here and any assertion that he didn't care is not true.

Blez: How do you find enough at bats for someone like Landon Powell who seems like he should get more regular playing time? Do you go into the offseason thinking about how you get more time for him despite the fact that Kurt Suzuki is a fantastic catcher, does a great job with the pitchers and is great offensively? Do you start to look at DH or a different position?

Beane: There's been times where Bob (Geren) has tried to do that. Early in the year he played a few games at first base and it's not something everyone can do immediately on an everyday basis. The other thing too is there were times that Landon was slowed down because he had nagging hamstring issues at different points during the season. Even though there are times when Bob wanted to get his bat in the lineup, Landon's body wouldn't allow him to. One of the things we're going to focus on with Landon is making sure he's as physically prepared as possibly to handle even more than he has. But we see it as a good problem to have. To be able to put in a catcher behind Kurt who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark but is also a good defensive catcher is a great luxury to have. But the fact is, and you alluded to this, Kurt Suzuki is one of the top catchers in the game. Not only that but he's very much become a leader on the team so he's going to get the bulk of time, yet we are aware of the amount of production Landon has given us in his brief amount of time. I think the goal is ultimately to get him more at bats, but for the time being, Kurt is going to get the bulk of them. Part of Landon's responsibility is to make sure he can handle more playing time than he has because that hasn't always been the case this year.

Blez: When someone like Rajai Davis has what looks like a "career year," how do you assess whether a reasonable projection for next year is more like what he's doing, or more like what he's done before? How does the team go about trying to figure this out?

Beane: In some sense you have to take it at face value. He was with Pittsburgh and then San Francisco and now us. He's never really been given a full blown opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player and now that he is putting up the numbers he is, the first question is, can he keep this up? But if you go back and look at what Raj did in the minor leagues, he was a good minor league hitter so it shouldn't come as a total shock. You're not talking about a guy who was a .220 hitter in the minor leagues. He was a good player when he played. Right now we just see it as a guy who has hit well in the minors who has finally been given the opportunity and is carrying it forward. We're going to enjoy it and go with it and try not to overthink. Anyone who has seen Raj with us over the last year and three quarters, when he's played, he's played well. He's one of the unique major league players who continues to just get better. We're going to take it at face value and he's done enough to show that he's a good enough player to play every day at center field. He's such a weapon on the base paths and he gives you such a unique dynamic. If you look at the stolen bases he's had without even having a full season, it isn't out of the question that next year you could see stealing 65-70 bases.

Blez: You reference stolen bases and obviously it's something that has changed quite a bit about the A's. I think you're in the top three in stolen bases and Raj is one of the league leaders in that number and he really makes the overall team number larger. Did you make a decision to be more aggressive on the base paths because of the lack of power? Did you think, we've got to get some offense some way?

Beane: I really think it's Bob (Geren) trying to take the personnel he has and trying to do the best he can with it. He's playing to the strengths. We don't have a lot of power and it's certainly something in order to be a more complete offensive team it's something we need to get. In a perfect world you have both guys who can steal bases and guys who can hit it out of the ballpark. As much as anything, it's Bob really trying to take advantage of what he has. Early in the year we were having trouble scoring runs and he wanted to create a mindset of being aggressive and when you have a guy like Raj doing it the way he's doing it, it has a tendency of rubbing off on everybody. There's a sense of confidence guys have when they get on the bases and they look to steal bases. They're looking for that steal sign. It also has a carryover effect with the rest of the base running. We've been by and large a very good baserunning team and it was just a matter of Bob looking at his personnel and he thought that this is what we're going to have to do to scrape some runs out. The second half we've actually swung the bats really well also and if you combine that with the aggressive baserunning, that's why you're seeing a lot higher run totals. The one thing it really has done is just given the guys a more aggressive mindset. They realize they're not going to win a whole lot of ballgames by getting into home run hitting contests. I give a lot of credit to Bob and his staff as they've really scratched and clawed their way through nine innings of these games.

Blez: Two questions. Do you believe in that the stolen bases must be a 75 percent success rate or higher or it's counterproductive and second of all, do you believe that someone like Rajai Davis actually puts additional pressure on the pitcher? The assumption is that the opposition pitcher somehow loses that concentration because they're so worried about the baserunner stealing.

Beane: There is no question that if a guy like Raj gets on base, everyone is aware that he is on base and there is going to be some adjustments to how quickly the pitcher might deliver the pitch and the catcher might call for a different pitch than he otherwise would. So the game calling might change as well. I'm sure you could quantify it. I'm not aware of exactly how to, but you can certainly tell from a game situation how teams react differently if you're willing to steal a base so I do think it does have an impact. The Angels have certainly done that for years and I think it's had an impact on how teams play them. It creates a tense situation for not just pitchers and catchers but defenders because they have to come up with a perfect play. As far as the rate, there is certainly a point where if you're constantly running and constantly getting thrown out it's definitely having an adverse impact and the demarcation line certainly seems to be around that 70 percent area. You also have to keep in mind that it doesn't take into account some of the things teams are doing to adjust to a team that runs a lot.

Blez: Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane: What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often. The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez: The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane: The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup. Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too. I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well. That's why the success rate seems higher. It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Blez: We talked about Raj and his career year. This is similar to that. Does Daric Barton seem like he's finally arrived or do you need to see more than a month of red-hot hitting, especially given that he's done that before?

Beane: I knew I'd forget somebody earlier and Daric has, certainly this last month, been swinging the bat the way we knew he could and very similarly to the first month he came to the big leagues a couple of years ago. One thing to keep in mind with Daric is that he's still extremely young. He came up at an age when many kids are still in college. He needs to be given the benefit of time and we need to do that. Through no fault of his own, he's had a few nicks here and there that have kind of interrupted his development. The biggest thing is this guy has been a very, very good minor league hitter and at times has shown that he can be a very good major league hitter. With young players, you just can't expect they're always going to be Andrew Bailey where they step on a mound and they never look back. Daric's development path is not unlike a lot of successful major leaguers where he shows you something and maybe he goes through some difficult times. That just means we have to be patient and hope that the guy that you saw in the minor leagues ultimately becomes that guy at the major leagues. This last month Daric has made some huge strides and we're not just excited about next year, but the next five or six years. The other thing you can't forget about Daric is how good a defender he has become. This is a converted catcher in the minor leagues. He's become a very good defensive first baseman, not just with the glove, but when needed, he throws very well from that position too. We're excited and it's great to see. We've always had high hopes for Daric particularly after that first month at the big leagues. He's one of the reasons we've played so well.

Blez: Staying with the first baseman theme, you have Barton, Doolittle and Carter as potential first basemen, but Doolittle and Carter also have some OF experience. What does the first base depth chart look like right now, and which of the players might be more likely to end up elsewhere on the field?

Beane: It's a question we may face and face very soon. We played Chris Carter a little in the outfield in Double-A. He's a good athlete. In a perfect world, all those guys become very good major league hitters and you have to find a spot for them. It potentially is something we're going to face. We're going to have to make a decision and it will be made on production first and foremost. Secondly, as you mentioned, it might be based on somebody's ability to play another position. In Chris' case we started to play him some in the outfield and I've even talked to his agent as he's going to play winter ball in Mexico and we've talked about getting him out there as much as possible because we think he's a good enough athlete to do it. We were doing the same with Doolittle in Triple A this year before he had the knee issue. It is definitely something as we go into the offseason and spring training we're going to have to prepare for.

Blez: Would the power potential for the position have a big deciding difference in who you play at first base? It's obviously still a concern with Daric because he hasn't put up much in terms of power numbers, but Carter has and Doolittle has some pop as well. Or do you maybe weigh the defense first?

Beane: Being a regular major league baseball player, the player brings a lot of elements: it's his baserunning, it's his fielding, it's his power, it's his ability to hit for average and it's when you add those things together usually one player is going to be better than the other even if he's deficient in one area because he may do one thing very well. It's not something we have to answer yet and it's definitely getting closer. We think all these guys are major league players, it's just about finding a spot for them.

Blez: What will most determine the timeline for when Chris Carter is called up to Oakland? Could he win a job out of spring training if he looks ready?

Beane: It's probably a little early to answer that. The only thing I'll say is that we wanted to give Chris some time at Triple-A and give him some confidence going into next year thinking he's seen the highest level of the minors and he could perform there. I think he did a great job in the few weeks he was there. It's just too early to answer that. I don't like creating definites at this point when you don't need to. A player usually decides when he's ready for the major leagues by performing at the highest level and at that point there's nowhere for him to go but up. Some of these guys are getting close to that.

Blez: Based on what you have seen so far, what's the current thinking on Brett Wallace's chances of being a major league every day third baseman?

Beane: We're going to leave Brett over there. He's played one full season, a total of a season and a half of professional baseball as he's moved very, very quickly because of his bat. We're going to give him the benefit of some time over there defensively and particularly given the long-term need we're going to have at that position, it would behoove us to give him every opportunity to give him the development time defensively to see if he can play the position because it would definitely be a great fit if he can play third base in the big leagues based on the personnel we have here and have coming up. It would be absolutely perfect. Especially given that Chavy (Eric Chavez) is coming into the last year of his contract, the chance that Brett with some further refining would be a very nice fit for us there long term. I guess the question is, is it still a work in progress? And we're going to give him every opportunity to prove he can play that position.

Blez: What do you do about third base, at least short term? I'm not even sure where Eric Chavez stands at this point or if he's a part of the conversation. I've read reports that he could do permanent damage to himself if he plays again. Where does Eric stand right now?

Beane: From a rehab standpoint, he's doing very well. The good thing about him having surgery when he did is that when we get into the offseason, he should have as normal an offseason as any other player. He should be able to start resuming normal baseball activities when everyone else starts. The time that he's had has been good. I think we have to be realistic including Eric because he's faced a number of surgeries and he's been more disappointed than anyone that he hasn't been able to come back completely. We have to be realistic on him coming back and have some short-term preparation as it applies to that position going into next year. I also think that Eric, given his talent level, deserves the respect and the opportunity to get healthy and given the opportunity to get back to doing what he does best. In short, we're going to try to prepare for both sides of the equation.

Blez: Where does Travis Buck stand with the team now as he seems to be caught in an almost purgatory state now between Triple-A and being up with the team but not really seeing much regular playing time? Is it the type of thing where he needs to get in there for a while to get his confidence back as he's seemed to have hit well in Triple-A?

Beane: The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian. If you hit, you're going to play. Raj is probably the best example of that. When Raj got a chance to play he hit. Since he's been playing, he's looked around saying I'm not going to let anyone else play because I know I have to perform here in order to keep myself in the lineup. Most recently, Ryan Sweeney has done the same thing. With all players, not just Travis, it's ultimately going to be based on performance. Travis has had a couple of years in a row, unfortunately, where he's had concussions that haven't enabled him to even play regularly at Triple A. He's missed some time there because of these injuries. We still think very highly of Travis for the same reasons that most people did when he first came up. We think he's got the talent to be a good major league player. At this point it's when he's given the chance he has to take advantage of it and ultimately hopefully avoiding some of those injuries he's had the last couple of years. But we still think very highly of him and one of the best things about Travis is that when he first came up one of the areas we wanted him to work on was his defense and that was addressed to him and he did. He's improved significantly in the outfield and it was an area of weakness when he first came up. Ultimately when he gets to this level it will be based on performance.

Coming tomorrow: Beane delves into the pitching, the status of the injured A's pitchers and how he sees 2010 shaping up.

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

The Projectability Problem

Nico — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:29:18 -0000

Like most fans, I enjoy watching young players and trying to figure out whether they will get better, never progress, get worse. Some guys, like Brett Anderson, will make big strides, some guys, like Travis Buck, will suddenly stall, some guys, like Eric Patterson, will keep getting new chances with old results, and some guys, like Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro, and Aaron Cunningham, will...?

Here's what I think makes projecting future performance so especially tricky. I had Dallas Braden pegged as a 4th starter because while I liked his demeanor, fastball command, and changeup, I also saw that his fastball lacked great movement, and that his only other weapon, a curve, was primarily effective against lefties but that did he didn't have a lot of weapons against right-handed batters other than to spot the fastball and pull the string with the changeup.

And on this one, I don't think I was exactly wrong. The Braden I projected was a different Braden than the one who has taken the mound in 2009. He learned to add and subtract on the fastball and then he learned a cutter, and I think this pitcher has a chance to be more than a 4th starter. So how do you look at a drafted player, or a young player you see in the big leagues, and project whether or not they will able to add new skills that might elevate their game in important ways?

Will Cahill be able to repeat his delivery better, in which case the pitches he has right now could make him a #2 starter, or does he not have that particular potential, in which case he'll likely stall? Are we only seeing 2/3 of what Mazzaro's arsenal will be as a 24 year old starter, or is he stuck trying to make it with a good fastball, decent slider, and "show me" changeup? Will Cunningham take his excellent swing and minor league numbers to match, and converge them at the big league level due to one of Jim Skaaaaaaalan's famous "timing devices," or will Mark McGwire get to him first and Cunningham won't hit .474 until he joins the Cardinals?

My question for this discussion is: When trying to project a player's future, how do you factor in the additions and changes they might be able to make? Not everyone can learn how to add and subtract on the fastball, or can adjust their hands to suddenly stay back better on offspeed pitches, no matter how good the tutelage may be. Yet a player with poor results now may be a star in the making, if you just imagine the changes they are capable of making between now and when you want to count on them to be good.

I didn't see it coming with Braden, but maybe I should have. Maybe I should have seen a guy with the perfect competitive makeup, excellent fastball command, the intelligence and resolve to learn new things, and realized that he would, and could, learn whatever he needed to learn to get a lot better. What should I see about Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Aaron Cunningham, Gio Gonzalez, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington, that I can't see now because it hasn't actually happened yet?

Matt Holliday Traded to Cardinals; Brett Wallace Comes Back to A's

Tyler Bleszinski — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Oh Mr. Holliday, we hardly knew ye. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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The Matt Holliday era in Oakland is over. OK so Matt Holliday wasn't exactly Ryan Langerhans. Or Michael Barrett in terms of his A's career. But it was pretty damn short.

But you have to love this deal if you're an A's fan. Brett Wallace is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, SB Nation's own John Sickels giving him an A- for a rating (and Sickels is notoriously stingy with his grades). The only knock on Wallace appear to be his defense, but almost everyone seems to think he's going to be a true cornerstone offensive player and sooner rather than later.

I'm guessing the more casual A's fans (are there any of those left?) might not understand why the A's would deal Holliday rather than trying to sign a bat like his to a long-term deal, I think this is a deal that makes a ton of sense for the A's because they're filling a desperate hole at the hot corner. And I think you can safely assume that Eric Chavez is likely done for good. So it took a lot of shuffling of assets (Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and now Holliday) but the A's finally have what seems like a bona fide long-term answer for their woes on the left-side of the infield. Or at least half of the problem on that side. Now there's always the chance that Wallace might not work out, but I'm still pretty thrilled to be getting a player who appears like as much of a sure thing as you can get in a prospect. And it also gives the A's the opportunity to finally figure out what they actually have in their outfield. Like is Travis Buck for real or was his rookie year a fluke? Will Aaron Cunningham take another step forward?

Now one top prospect doesn't make the A's contenders, but it moves more in line with the young team progressing as they should. The key here is cost control as well. The A's weren't ready to have a guy like Holliday around for a while. And this way they're moving towards that great, young, cost-controlled team that they started building towards a couple of years ago. They clearly have the pitching and now they've addressed one part of the left side of the infield conundrum. They may still address the shortstop position with Orlando Cabrera being dealt as well, but it's been such a question mark for the A's for so long with the will he or won't he Eric Chavez question that it's nice to feel some great hope there.

This is a great deal for the A's and I'm excited to see Wallace don the green and gold.

Oakland Athletics Acquire Scott Hairston

Jack Moore — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 04:48:09 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: San Diego Padres' Scott Hairston follows through with his swing for a solo homer in the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during their baseball game, Monday, June 1, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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Oakland Athletics Press Release:

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Oakland A's acquired outfielder Scott Hairston from the San Diego Padres in exchange for minor league pitchers Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano plus a player to be named later, the club announced today. Hairston is expected to join the A's Monday in Boston.

Scott Hairston has had a career year so far this year for the Padres, and Kevin Towers sold high. Hairston's career began to pick up last year in San Diego. In his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2004-2007), Hairston accrued 599 PAs. In his two significant stints, 2004 and 2007, Hairston put up wOBAs of .312 and .295. However, after changing positions (from 2B to the corner outfield) and a move to San Diego midseason in 2007, Hairston's career has taken off in the apparently friendly confines of PETCO Park. Since the trade, Hairston has turned it on and become a force with the bat. In 667 PAs with San Diego, Hairston has been 21 runs above average with the bat. Combining that with solid outfield defense (+3 UZR in 665 CF innings, +8 UZR in 1033 LF innings), Hairston's been worth a substantial 5.1 WAR in his short time with San Diego.

Looking at Hairston going forward, it is likely that his offensive numbers will improve upon leaving the spacious PETCO Park. Still, it would be unlikely for Hairston to maintain his current 2009 wOBA of .398. The Rest of Season ZiPS projection for Hairston expects a .343 wOBA the rest of the way, worth roughly 2.5 offensive runs. Given what we know, a fair assumption would be for Hairston's offensive value to fall within the 0 to +7.5 range. The most likely scenario for the Athletics, at least short term, is that Hairston replaces Travis Buck in right field. Perhaps, Hairston replaces Ryan Sweeney in CF. Hairston also could be the plan to replace Matt Holliday if a trade is imminent. Either way, Hairston appears to be in the +2.5 to +7.5 range as a corner outfielder and in the -2.5 to +5 range as a CF. It would then be fair to peg Hairston's defensive value as ranging from -2.5 to +7.5.

Worst case scenario, then, Hairston is worth 2.5 runs below average, and is a 1.75 win player. Best case, Hairston is probably a +15 run player, and is worth roughly 3.5 wins per 600 plate appearances. At 29, Hairston is not likely to turn any more major corners in his career. Still, Hairston will only be entering his second year of arbitration next year, and having only received 1.25M in his first year, he will likely be a cheap asset being paid far less than his value on the free agent market. Although Billy Beane may have broken one of the cardinal rules of trading and "bought high", it is unlikely that Hairston will disappoint, given his strong defensive track record and his very strong last 3 years in the strongest of all pitcher's parks.

Given the likely value of the next two years of Scott Hairston, the assets received by the Padres would have to be quite strong to warrant the trade. The two prospects sent by Beane are RHP Ryan Webb and RHP Craig Italiano. Webb, a 23-year-old AAA player, has a 3.66 FIP in 47 innings at AAA, thanks to a 7.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a very low (likely unsustainably low) HR/9 of 0.5 . Italiano is a hard thrower who struggles with his command. In his 80 innings with High-A Stockton, Italiano has walked 40 batters along with 75 strikeouts and a quite good 0.68 HR/9. Italiano, with his strikeout and walk numbers both high, appears to be on a track to be a relief pitcher. Webb, based on his minor league track record, appears to be a back-end of the rotation starter. While these can be valuable pieces, it seems unlikely to me that they can equal the kind of production that Hairston is likely to put up in his next two cost-controlled years. Beane appears to have made out quite well with this deal, unless the PTBNL ends up being a major prospect. Whether this deal is made to bolster the outfield for the future or to allow for a Matt Holliday deal, the A's have acquired a useful asset. San Diego succeeded in shedding 1.25 million dollars in salary, but I'm not sure the minor leaguers they picked up will equal the level of production that Hairston has showed he is capable of.

MLB Trade Rumors: Padres Trade Scott Hairston To The A's

raygu — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:04:29 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

5 months ago: San Diego Padres' Scott Hairston rounds third following his solo home run off of Texas Rangers' Tommy Hunter in the fourth inning of a baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, June 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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The Padres have traded OFer Scott Hairston to the A's for two minor league pitchers, AAA Ryan Webb and A Craig Italiano, and a PTBNL. Twitter first reported it, with MLB.com providing the details..

I am not sure if this deal will lead to the A's trading Matt Holliday, but that is the first thing that entered my mind when I saw the headline on twitter.

#Padres trade Hairston to A's for two Minor League pitchers and PTBNL.

My second thought about this deal is that the Padres are ready to let power htting prospect Kyle Blanks play everyday in LF.

Hairston has been one of the Padres better hitters this year hitting .307-.364-.547 with 10 HRs, 29 RBI and 8 SBs. I imagine he will play one of the OF spots in Oakland. Hairston's bat will be an improvement versus who the A's are running out there everyday in Travis Buck and Ryan Sweeney, at least until Matt Holliday is dealt.

Poll

Will the deal for Scott Hairston lead to Billy Beane trading Matt Holliday?

Yes, the Braves and Mets are desperate for another bat in their lineups.

98 votes

No, not right away.

17 votes

No, Beane would prefer the two draft choices in next year's draft.

18 votes

133 votes | Poll has closed

Graph of the Day: Oakland A's HITf/x

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 18:00:18 -0000

Is it just me, or have we failed to produce gratuitous Oakland A's content the past couple months? I know I haven't produced enough HITf/x visuals (cough), so here's one to make-up for it. Killing two birds with one stone.

Using average batted ball characteristics isn't the best way to do this, but what the heck. Click to enlarge.

Data from April 2009 sample provided by Sportvision.

California is Sinking, It Won't be Long Now: an Oakland A's Preview

U-God — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:58:44 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Oakland Athletics third baseman Jack Hannahan does his best Brent Lillibridge/airplane impersonation in the fourth inning of the second game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Friday, May 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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A brief look at an opponent we play this week.

Dates we play them: 6/1-6/4 at home, 8/14-8/16 @ OAK, 9/8-9/9 at home

Offense: A potential lineup: Orlando Cabrera-SS, Adam Kennedy-2B, Matt Holliday-LF, Jason Giambi-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Ryan Sweeney-CF, Aaron Cunningham-RF, Bobby Crosby-1B, Jack Hannahan-3B Bench: Jack Cust-DH/OF

Coming up with a lineup for the A's was a little frustrating. It's like they go with a pattern for three days, and then switch. The main reason for all this switching is due to amount of injuries Oakland's roster has had so far this season. On offense, they are currently missing Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Ellis, Travis Buck, and Eric "Elijah Price" Chavez. Since their own writers will have more to say about injuries, you can visit the always solid Athletics Nation after you finish the article (or before if you want to be an ass).

Leading off for Oakland lately is easily the least well-liked former White Sox player since Magglio Ordoñez, Orlando Cabrera. The press box darling is off to a terrible start (.236/.280/.296) and hasn't even been good in the field. His luck should start improving, as his BABIP is more than a bit under his career norm, but he had been hitting over his head the past few seasons so maybe this is what we should expect out of him from now on. This probably isn't what he was hoping for while playing for what may be the final contract of his career (especially in this market). One half of what used to be the scrappiest, grindiest double play combo in baseball, Adam Kennedy has been a godsend for the A's so far this year. Picked up off the scrap-heap from Tampa for a PTBNL, Kennedy was brought in on a minor league contract. That didn't last long, as Mark Ellis quickly got hurt and the A's needed a new second baseman. Kennedy has been a machine so far (.390/.462/.622) and is fourth on the team in homeruns (with 4, which says something about Oakland's offense). Yes, this is completely unsustainable (.424 BABIP) but it is nice to see Kennedy get to have a good season again. He always seemed like a nice guy. Matt Holliday has not been having nearly as rough a start to this season as most media would have you believe. Yes, his April numbers were terrible, but he has been mashing the ball since. There could be mutiple reasons for his shaky start (new league, bigger stadium), but the most likely was just some more terrible luck. His BABIP was .078 below his career norm, which will cripple any hitters numbers. The fact that he still has a 111 OPS+ after that first awful month is a testament to how good of a hitter he really is. If he continues to heat up and the A's continue to falter, expect Holliday to be trading in his green and gold before August.

Oh, Jason Giambi, you never-ending source of entertainment. Giambi is yet another slumping hitter by the bay. Unfortunately for him and his team, his slump might be harder to break than that of his teammates. Giambi turned 38 this year, and I'm not really sure how much more baseball his body can take. The roids did a number on him and old age is not being kind to the slugger. Kurt Suzuki is quietly becoming one of the best catchers in baseball. While he'll probably never reach the tier of guys like Mauer, McCann, and Martin (I just noticed that the three best catchers in baseball all have surnames starting with M), already is second tier and should be one of the top ten catchers in the game for at least a few years. He doesn't have much power (16 career homeruns), but he hits for average, seems durable, and plays solid defense. He's also under team control for quite some time, so Oakland will get his prime years dirt cheap. And now we come to Ryan Sweeney, former White Sock of the future. Sweeney was part of the Swisher trade from last year. His bat isn't all that great and his defense in center is pretty shoddy, but he's young and quick and will be a good enough stop-gap until Oakland finds someone better to replace him. He's probably going to be a fourth outfielder fairly soon. Aaron Cunningham is yet another former White Sox prospect playing for the A's. The better half of the Danny Richar trade, Cunningham came into this season as the fourth best prospect in the vaunted Oakland farm system. He's off to a rough start, but it's only been seven games and he's only 23. His track record says expect the bat to come around, but his fielding will likely remain an issue. Bobby Crosby won the RotY award in 2004 as a shortstop and hasn't done much since. Both his bat and his glove abandoned him, and when OrCa came on board this winter he was forced to become a utility guy or learn some new tricks. Crosby went from being a crappy-hitting shortstop to a crappy-hitting first baseman. Jack Hannahan is awful, and the poor guy doesn't even get to have the distinction of being the best baseball player in the history of his high school. Joe Mauer quickly ended his reign a mere two years later. If Oakland's offense were a rap video, it would be about this bad of one.

Pitching: A potential rotation plus closer: Dallas Braden-LHP, Trevor Cahill-RHP, Dana Eveland-LHP, Brett Anderson-LHP, Josh Outman-LHP and Brad Ziegler/Andrew Bailey-RHPs

This is probably the youngest rotation in baseball, as no starter is older than 25. Braden seems to be the default ace of the group, by having the best combination of experience and talent. His fastball doesn't crack 90 mph and his K:BB ratio is pretty poor. He's done decent this season by limiting homeruns, but a guy who gives up a flyball percentage of 44.2 won't have much luck not giving up homers in a park like USCF. Trevor Cahill, the sole righty of the rotation, came into this season as the number two prospect in the organization. He's doing about as well as you would think a 21 year old pitcher who never pitched above AA would, having a 96 ERA+ so far. His K/9 has dropped dramatically since the call-up, but he has been making up for it by inducing a solid number of groundballs. Dana Eveland came over in the Dan Haren trade and looks to be nothing more than back of the rotation fodder. He's a left-handed innings-eater at best. Brett Anderson is the team's number one prospect. He's struggled so far, but is essentially in the same boat as Cahill, having never pitched above AA. He should improve as the season goes on. Josh Outman has one of the best last names a pitcher could have. He also has a low to mid-90s fastball and at least decent control. He may have pitched a little over his true ability so far, but that could just be him turning the corner as he is only 24 years old. I have both Ziegler and Bailey listed as the closer, because I'm not certain which one will actually be closing. The A's have split their nine team saves among three pitchers, so it's really anyone's guess. Bailey is a young, hard-throwing righty with typical closer stuff (good fastball and slider). Ziegler is the more interesting of the two. Ziggy has an awesome sidearm/submariner style pitching motion which makes his fairly slow pitches much harder to hit. My favorite thing about the guy is that he is just like us, and by that I mean he is a member of SBN and has written blog entries over on Athletics Nation in the past.

Outlook: The A's are a team in transition. Billy Beane seemed to be going into rebuild mode, but then saw how weak his division might be this season and figured why not go for it. So far it hasn't been working too well. The team was denied their new stadium in Fremont (so I guess this really worked) and this season doesn't look like it will end well for the team with my favorite throwback jerseys. That all being said, we play the A's nine times this season. Me picking against us has been working so far, so I say we go 4-5 against them this season with a guarenteed win this Thursday (the Sox are 12-6 with three DNPs over the past 20 years on June 4th). At least the A's can hang their hat on having an awesome mascot.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:27:26 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Corey Hart celebrate the Brewers 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds after their baseball game on Sunday, May 31, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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Some things to read while rocking out to the Ultimate Warrior's theme. (h/t FanShot)

By completing a three-game sweep of the Reds yesterday, the 2009 Brewers won their 30th game, making them the quickest team to 30 wins in franchise history. They also won 18 games in May, meaning loge seats for the June 9-11 series against the Rockies are now just $10. Those tickets became available about half an hour ago.

Here are some tidbits on the Reds series:

Brandon Phillips still thinks the Reds are the better team.
Aaron Harang said he was having a hard time locating everything but his fastball on Saturday.
Friday's 3-2 win was the Brewers' third win this season when collecting three or fewer hits. No other team has more than one such win.

As it turns out, the Reds may have caught Yovani Gallardo at the worst possible time. Joe Posnanski noted that Gallardo has allowed just one earned run in four day starts this season, but posted a 5.26 ERA at night. Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases ranked Gallardo #9 on his list of 50 pitchers to build a team around. Gallardo was the only Brewer listed.

Dave Bush missed the cut, but you can help him make another one: He's an eight seed, up against Aaron Rodgers in the first round of Sconnie Sports' tournament to determine Wisconsin's most popular athlete.

There's plenty of credit to go around when you're winning:

The Wisconsin State Journal has a profile of Brewer third base coach and Madison resident Brad Fischer.
The JS has a profile of pitching coach Bill Castro.
And while Greg Giesen of the Racine Journal Times says the Brewers aren't playing enough small ball, Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal says Ken Macha has stats arguing against it.

Macha also ranked 13th in Nick Cafardo's rankings of all 30 managers. He came in behind Dusty Baker (10th), Lou Pinella (9th) and Tony LaRussa (1st), among others. (h/t Reid Laymance)

The Brewers open a series with the Marlins today. Here's something you may not have known about Trevor Hoffman: He's the only original Florida Marlin still active in the major leagues.

Hopefully Mike Cameron is getting hot again. Cameron has home runs in back-to-back games and leads the team in doubles (12) and slugging percentage (.550). Baseball Musings says the Brewers should be happy they held on to him this offseason.

Turns out, the Brewers are above average against above average teams. Baseball Reference says the Brewers went 20-29 against teams with winning percentages over .600 from 2004-2008, the eleventh best record in baseball.

In the minors:

Alcides Escobar's second base experiment appears to be over. Apparently the adjustment is more difficult than expected.
Joshua Butler, acquired when Gabe Gross was sent to the Rays, was 6-0 in Brevard County before getting called up to start for Nashville on Saturday, and allowing two earned runs in six innings of work. Maybe the Brewers will get something out of Butler after all.
If you'd like to go out and see a Timber Rattler game this week or next and sit in great (free) seats, you should check Rattler Radio's giveaways.

Just one draft note to pass along today: MLB Outsider has the Brewers drafting high school pitcher Matt Hobgood with their first round pick.

Around the league:

Astros: Roy Oswalt has reportedly informed the team that he will not accept a trade to the White Sox.
A's: Placed Travis Buck on the DL with an oblique strain.
Dodgers: Placed pitcher Eric Stults on the DL.
Indians: Placed Grady Sizemore (elbow) and Rafael Betancourt (groin) on the DL and designated David Dellucci for assignment.
Mets: Acquired OF Emil Brown from the Padres.
Orioles: Designated Chad Moeller for assignment.
Pirates: Placed reliever Donnie Veal on the DL with a groin pull.
Rangers: Placed starter Matt Harrison on the DL with a strained shoulder.
Rockies: Fired manager Clint Hurdle and replaced him with Jim Tracy.
Royals: Placed John Buck on the DL with a slight herniation in his back.
Twins: Placed Nick Punto on the DL with a strained groin.
White Sox: Placed Carlos Quentin on the DL with plantar fasciitis, acquired catcher Ramon Castro from the Mets and designated Corky Miller for assignment.

The Cardinals also placed Khalil Greene on the DL over the weekend with a social anxiety issue. No one seems certain on a course of action or a timeframe for his return but, for the first time, retirement has been brought up as a possibility.

Baseball is an incredible game sometimes. When last I mentioned Randy Choate, it was to point out that he had not retired a major league batter since 2006, despite appearing in games in 2007 and 2009. Now, he has two saves for the Rays.

Economic times remain tough for many, and the Pirates are cutting staff midseason on their business side. Today I also have reports that a deal to buy the AA Connecticut Defenders and move them to Richmond has fallen through and the Memphis Redbirds are in default with their stadium financing plan.

Finally, as noted in a FanShot over the weekend, Austin Wood, a reliever for the University of Texas, was allowed to throw 13 innings (169 pitches) in a marathon extra inning game over the weekend, despite the fact that he'd thrown 30 pitches the previous day. The Grand National Championship hopes prospective recruits were paying attention.

Oh, and throwing 13 innings in relief is pretty impressive, but it's nowhere near as hilarious as this rain delay dance off.

Drink up.

Geren's Ineptitude Exposed Again In Doubleheader Sweep

Nico — Sat, 30 May 2009 03:28:38 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Have you seen my village?

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Final Scores: 6-3 Rangers and 5-2 Rangers

Game 1: Travis Buck hit a 2-run HR in the 2nd and Josh Outman struck out a career high 9 in 6.2 IP of 3 hit ball, but Marlon Byrd's HR off Outman tied the game 3-3 in the 7th and back-to-back HRs off Santiago Casilla in the 8th, by Andruw Jones and Nelson Cruz, gave Texas a 6-3 win.

Game 2: Texas scored 4 runs in the 1st inning off of Edgar Gonzalez, capped off by Taylor Teagarden's bases loaded two-run single, and the A's offense was...well...the A's offense.

This double-header was painful for me to watch, but not because the A's lost twice, not because the A's fell 10 games under .500, not because the A's dropped to 10 games out of 1st place. The most painful part was the occasional shot in the dugout of Ron Washington, whose intelligence, intensity, and high expectations cannot be denied by anyone who has followed his career. The A's aren't going to win the West, so I hope the Rangers do - they were smart enough to hire Ron Washington to manage their team and they deserve, as he deserves, some success.

What's remarkable to me is that a decision Bob Geren made in New York, to bring the infield in with runners at second and third and nobody out in the 2nd inning of a 0-0 game (Brett Gardner vs. Dana Eveland), which I thought was evidence of a manager who had no strategic understanding of the game, is now only the THIRD dumbest decision that I think Geren has made. I thought walking Russell Branyan in Seattle (ahead of Jose Lopez' game-winning hit) to load the bases was even more moronic, but tonight Geren outdid even himself, ordering an intentional walk to Chris Davis to load the bases in the 1st inning of Game 2.

Chris Davis had struck out all four ABs in Game 1, and finished the double-header 0-7 with 6 Ks. He has now struck out a major league leading 77 times, including 23 times in his last 34 ABs. He is batting .194 and will likely be optioned to AAA. In sum, he is essentially, this season and especially right now, the equivalent of a pitcher batting. I was truly in disbelief when I saw this move being made.

I'm sorry. Bob Geren is simply not fit to manage a major league baseball team. Even stupid managers don't make some of the decisions he has made - and it's not like his team plays good fundamental baseball, or exudes any noticeable intensity or joy in the dugout or on the field. A's players - who are both young and limited in talent and need every advantage they can get - and A's fans, deserve better.

{Reminder: If you want to join SoCal ANers for the Dodgers game on June 16th or the Padres game on June 20th, remember to email baseballgirl ASAP. Her email address is: baseballgirl1976@hotmail.com}