SB Nation - Julio Lugo

Theo Tries Again: Marco Scutaro Signs with the Red Sox

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:28:00 -0000

7 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro, top, leaps to catch the throw from the plate as Baltimore Orioles' Adam Jones steals second base during eighth-inning AL baseball game action in Toronto on Friday, May 1, 2009. (AP photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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Theo Esptein has taken another swing at filling the shortstop position for the Red Sox, signing free agent Marco Scutaro to a 2-year deal.

News came from Venezuelan paper Lider first, over an hour before other sources confirmed the move.

A type-A free agent, Scutaro's signing will require a draft pick compensation, though if the Sox sign a higher-ranked free agent such as Matt Holliday, the Jays will only receive a second round pick from the Sox instead of a first.

Scutaro is coming off a career year during which he posted a line of .282/.379/.409 while playing above average defense according to UZR.

For the Red Sox, Scutaro provides hope for some consistency at shortstop. Since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Cabrera, the Sox have struggled to find a replacement, with disappointing performances from Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. Alex Gonzalez played solid defense in 2006, and again in the last half of 2009, but was a significant hole in the lineup.

The deal is expected to be announced tommorow (Friday), likely with a mutual option for a third year.

Astros Hot Stove Rumors

davoag — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:57:40 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Have you seen this man? He's a possible closer, maybe a starter...

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Since it seems all the rage to link the Houston Astros to all sorts of guys in the rumor mill this offseason, how about we do a quick recap of what exactly is going on and how those guys potentially fit with the team.

Brett Myers -- DyingQuail has done a good job of tracking down whether Myers would be viewed as a starter or a reliever. He got a tweet response from Alyson Footer that said Wade is considering Myers as a starter foremost, but his versatility as a reliever is also a plus. The Astros realistically have one spot open in the rotation, unless they bump Moehler to long relief. Myers is coming off a season where he earned 12 million in the last year of a three-year, 25.75M deal. Safe to say he doesn't get that this offseason. [I'm pretty sure that the owner who cuts Julio Lugo days after he is charged with spousal battery yet brings in Myers loses all moral high ground in perpetuity]

J.J. Putz - Putz was a legitimately great reliever in 2007, a good one in 2008 and a injury-ridden one in 2009. Ed Wade's most recent comments to Brian McTaggart suggest that the Astros interest is at just a 'checking-in' phase. Putz could fill in nicely as a back of the bullpen guy, though it's too soon to tell whether his struggles last season were because of injury or because he couldn't move back into a setup role.

Placido Polanco - Reportedly, Polanco has signed a three-year deal with the Phillies. That seems a tad too long for me and probably wouldn't have fit the Astros long-term plans. Still, a player who can hit for a high average would look good at the top of the Astros order. Looks like that's what Philadelphia gets instead.

Joe Crede - Again, the Crede speculation won't go away. We've discussed him numerous times before, but it seems that a third baseman with his glove could really help the team, though the flashing 'Back Injury!' sign that accompanies him does prove problematic. I don't see a Crede signing swinging the 2010 season for the Astros, but he might prove useful if he's healthy.

Random group of closers (Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg) - No one here jumps out as a great replacement for Valverde, though they all should be fairly cheap. Ed Wade has expressed interest in this group as possibilities in case they don't re-sign their own guys, but I honestly don't forsee anyone in this group really holding down a closer's job reliably next season.

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Batters

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

This man swings a big bat. A very, very big bat. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Well, this took me a little longer than I expected, but oh well. Continuing in the player-by-player breakdown of who we had in 2009 and what they are to the team in 2010, I give you the batters.

Brian Anderson: Let's start things off easy, shall we? Brian Anderson really brought nothing to this team in 2009. Sure, he had that one really good game against Cleveland when nothing mattered, and his 1.028 OPS is pretty to look at if you ignore how many ABs it took. But he's not a major league player. If he's willing to be stuffed back in the minor leagues, maybe he comes back as very mediocre insurance. But if not, the Sox should have no qualms with dumping the failed prospect.

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco wasn't all that bad as far as a bench bat is concerned. He had a very low OBP, but brought a little pop to the lineup when he was slotted in and finished with a mid-700s OPS. He even played a good center field in limited innings, if his UZR came in below average in the outfield over the year. Ultimately, though, Rocco does not bring any solid reliability to the bench. He's got obvious injury risks, and if you can't rely on a guy to come off the bench and give you a solid AB regardless of how often he plays is not necessarily the guy you want. Unless his price is very low, I expect the Sox will let him walk in favor of someone more reliable.

Jason Bay: Now here's where things get interesting. Let's look at the facts: Jason Bay was a fantastic offensive producer for the Red Sox. He lead American League outfielders in numerous offensive statistics, and was a great middle-of-the-order guy every month but July. Now, it's tempting to just say "sign him"—and I think the Red Sox ultimately will. But I'm not sure that's going to be a good idea. For a team where the goal has long been to exploit the unexploited market and avoid overpaying based on name and hype, Jason Bay seems like exactly the wrong sort of signing: a guy with big numbers where people often look (RBI, HR, and yes, OBP, SLG, and wOBA) but crap numbers where they do not (UZR). If Bay wants to sign with us, he'd better understand that he will have to DH when we ask him to DH.

J.D. Drew: Seriously, for those of you Drew-haters—and I know a few still linger—ask yourselves if you're not a bit too caught up in his 2007 numbers. Last year he was a top-10 outfielder by wOBA, top-3 by OPS. And unlike his similarly offensively gifted outfielder Jason Bay, Drew is a very solid defensive outfielder as well, worth 9.7 runs above replacement, good for 6^th amongst major league right fielders. Is he costly? Yes, but he's a ridiculously good player and worth every penny in '08 and '09. I'm not saying we should resign him after his contract runs out in 2 years, but until then he's an integral part of this team that's probably being underutilized batting 8^th every other game.

Jacoby Ellsbury: There's not a lot left to be said about Jacoby Ellsbury that hasn't already been said here. A seemingly great defensive outfielder due to speed and the occasional flashy dive or leap, Ellsbury's abilities do not hold up well under scrutiny. Bad jumps and poor routes lead him to being one of the worst defensive center fielders by UZR, and offensively the problems are the same as usual: OBP, OBP, OBP. As a leadoff hitter, that number should be higher than it is, though he's made improvements, it's questionable whether that's due to improving skills or a higher BABIP this year. The K% and BB% are moving slowly in the right direction, but to stay in CF he's going to have to improve his defense, and if he wants to make it in left, he's going to need to improve his bat way more than he has so far.

Joey Gathright: He's a good guy to have in the system, but he's not one you want for the long haul. He's not got a bat to be worth a spot on the bench except when you're in the postseason and can expect to be playing your starters every single game and might just need that one key SB. Otherwise, hes' a roster spot best used on a solid all-around player.

Alex Gonzalez: There's gotta be a little bit of emotion involved in the decision making process for those who want to bring the more diminutive A-Gon back. The Red Sox hadn't had a guy let them feel safe on a ball hit to the SS hole for a while, and Gonzalez gave them that for a short time. Add in a few clutch hits, a surprising number of homers, and replacing a combination of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Brian Woodward and I'm surprised we haven't had statues going up left and right. But looking at Gonzo's case rationally, he's not at all worth the $6 million option on his contract, and he's probably not a great player to keep on. First off, even his .316 OBP this year with the Sox was very nearly a career high. He is, undoubtedly, a black hole in the lineup. And in the field, while he's good, he's not great and he's not likely to get any better as he gets older. This guy is not a solution to the long-term problem, he is a short-term stopgap who kept Sox fans from tearing out their hair. In his short time with the Sox, Jed Lowrie has shown no signs of driving Sox fans insane with fielding errors, and has the potential to swing a big bat. Pair him with another possible solution (*cough*JJ Hardy*cough*) and see who emerges.

Nick Green: As fun as it was to watch Nick Green go on his early-season hot streak and show remarkable range at short, he's unlikely to reproduce either next year, and so is probably minor-league depth at best for this team.

Casey Kotchman: Another player who just doesn't have a great future with the Sox. There's likely at least one team in the league likely to give him a starting job at first, and he never seemed to get his bat going even to his usual levels as a bench player. While he's got a great glove at first, that's just not the greatest use of a bench spot, especially if we can employ a late-inning defensive unit with Jed at 3^rd, Youk at 1^st, and hopefully a good defensive backup/platoon SS. Send him on his way and see if we can't get some value for him.

George Kottaras: Bad bat, mediocre defensive catcher, and with Mark Wagner throwing out guys left and right and flashing a bat again, he may well have missed his window with the Sox. Sorry, Kott.

Mike Lowell: To say Mike has been disappointing since signing his contract in the 2007-2008 offseason would probably be an understatement. .274/.338/.461 and .290/.337/.474 are not lines worth $12 million, especially not when paired with defense befitting a cripple. However, there's reason to be encouraged. Even with limited starts, Lowell put up pretty good numbers in July and August before disappearing in September, and started to show signs of being the old defensive Lowell as the season came to a close. The ability to be the old Mike Lowell is still there, and hopefully with more consistent playing time (with Martinez taking over at catcher, Youk will be staying at first a lot more) and a healed hip, Mike could flash us some of the old magic in what will almost certainly be his last year with the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: If the wrist is healthy, he should be our starting shortstop. The defense is there, the offense should by all accounts be there with a well-repaired wrist—there's no evidence of significant discrepancies in his L/R splits in the minors. I still think he's our shortstop of the future.

Victor Martinez: I'll admit that I got this guy wrong. He came into Fenway and produced. But that doesn't change that he's not an impressive defensive catcher, which is the position he's going to have to fill more often than not next year. Hopefully, his position splits fall more in line with his pre-'09 numbers instead of his clearly first base heavy ones from last year. Otherwise, while he won't be Varitek bad, the upgrade isn't going to be as big as we expect.

David Ortiz: Perhaps the biggest single question mark on the Red Sox going into 2010 is Big Papi. Obviously, he is on the decline. Obviously, he's not due for a big contract in 2011 if any at all. And obviously, so long as he doesn't somehow find his way into pin stripes, he's due to go down as one of the all-time Sox if only for his contributions in '07 and especially '04. But next year anything could happen. While Ortiz ended the season with an OPS of .794, he put up a 1.062 OPS in June, .845 in July, .825 in August, and .947 in September. But when that's being so strongly offset by the slow starts he's had for the last few years, it's hard to justify keeping him consistently at DH. Papi needs to figure out what it is that's making him start slow (not exactly the sign of an aging guy who would tend to break down over the course of the season) over the offseason, and FIX IT. More prep, less prep, I don't know, but if he fixes it, the Sox could pull a huge weapon out of nowhere.

Or he could just continue to disappear.

Dustin Pedroia: Not much to this one. He's our guy at second base for the foreseeable future. Huge defense, great on base capabilities, and with the ability to show a little sneaky pop. After putting up an MVP season in 2008, Pedroia seemed to regress a little in 2009, but I wouldn't expect that to continue at all. In fact, I'd expect him to get better in a lot of ways. After BABIPs of .334 and .336 in '07 and '08, Petey posted a .300 in '09. He had a little bit of a GB/FB shift, and maybe swung for the fences a bit too much when he had only a couple dingers midway through the year. If Petey can get back to playing his game, he could easily jump back over the .850 OPS mark.

Jason Varitek: As much as I love the captain for all he's done, it's time to call it quits. Tek is not currently worth a roster spot. He doesn't have the offense to be a full-time catcher, or the defense to be a backup. Plus his presence will likely just make it harder to get the pitchers in synch with Martinez and whoever ends up backing him up next season. If he insists on picking up the player's option, pay him his 3 million and cut him loose. I hope he ends up as a coach with us someday, but there's just no justification to waste a spot on him.

Chris Woodward: A guy with no redeeming qualities. Awful defense, awful offense...Don't even stick him in Pawtucket, just cut him.

Kevin Youkilis: After the dramatic improvement between '07 and '08, Sox fans would've been completely justified in wondering if this late-blooming Youk was for real. .843 OPS is acceptable at 3^rd, or 1^st with great defense. .959 OPS with great defense at the corners? That's MVP stuff. .312/.390/.569 became .305/.413/.548, and Sox fans were reassured. Kevin Youkilis is THE middle-of-the-lineup guy for the Red Sox. He may not his tons of homers, but he's going to produce. Youk's extension was clearly a good buy now.

By the way, did anyone else realize he had 7 steals last year? Go figure. Nice little tidbit to end the article on.

Searching for the Astros Skipper, Weekend Rundown

davoag — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:24:26 -0000

Six candidates interviewed in the past three days, and five of them haven't been profiled yet. But before we move on to that, I thought it'd be constructive to get a historical perspective on the job they're interviewing for. What do these guys need to do to become the best manager of the 18 in Astro history? Here's a handy reference chart:

Most wins by a Houston manager: Bill Virdon, 544

Most playoff appearances: Larry Dierker, 4

Most seasons at the helm: Bill Virdon, 8

Most wins in career (non-Houston): Leo Durocher, 2,008

First up on the managerial rewind is Bob Melvin, former Arizona Diamondbacks skipper:

Bob Melvin
     Age: 47
     Hometown: Palo Alto, Calif.
     College: California.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies. He was NL Manager of the Year in 2007.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Melvin spent most of his career as a backup catcher for 10 seasons with Detroit, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Boston, the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He hit .233 with 35 homers and 212 RBIs in 692 career games.
    Did you know: Melvin was hired by Arizona to replace Wally Backman, who was dismissed before he managed a single game because of past discretions?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Once we started to focus in on some names and we did our homework and talked to people like Pat Gillick and [former Diamondbacks general manager] Joe Garagolia Jr., they thought he did a good job."

Melvin was a hot candidate when he landed with Seattle back in 2003, but had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona. He did usher in a bunch of kids and helped the D'Backs to win the 2007 NL West title, but he also oversaw the under-development of guys like Chris Young and Stephen Drew. His bullpen management was also spotty, mainly because he constantly changed closers due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The interesting thing about Melvin is he had almost the exact opposite situation in Arizona that he'd have here in Houston. Out there, his rotation consisted of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren for at least part of his tenure. That's three top-flight starters breezing through town, while his offense struggled for the most part. Arizona finished 14th in runs scored in 2007, 10th in 2008 and though the D'Backs finished 9th in 2009, they also gave up the third-most runs in the league. For comparison, they gave up the fifth-least runs in both 2007 and 2008.

So, though his offense did trend upwards over the past three seasons, once they lost Webb and Johnson, the D'Backs pitching fell off a cliff. I wonder how much discussion went into what he'd do with Houston's rotation?

Moving on to the next candidate, Phil Garner:

Phil Garner
     Age: 60
     Hometown: Jefferson City, Tenn.
     College: Tennessee.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Astros
     Previous Major League managing experience: Garner managed for more than 14 years in the Majors, spending eight seasons in Milwaukee (1992-1999) and two full seasons in Detroit (2000-01) before being dismissed six games into 2002 season. He took over the Astros at the All-Star break in 2004 and led them to the NLCS and a year later to the World Series. He was let go with 31 games left in the 2007 season and has been out of baseball since.
     Major League managing record: 985-1,054.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Spent 16 seasons in the Major Leagues with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco and hit .260 with 109 homers and 738 RBIs in 1,860 games. He helped Pittsburgh to the 1979 World Series title by hitting .500 in the World Series. He played with the Astros from 1981-87 and appeared in more games with the Astros than he did with any other team.
    Did you know: Garner became a candidate after calling Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith to recommend Bob Melvin for the job?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've known Phil since we crossed paths in 1981 when I went to the Pirates and he was there. I've been a big fan from afar in Detroit and then here his record speaks for itself. He's a tremendous candidate."

Not going to spend too much time on Scrap Iron, but suffice it to say, he's got an interesting candidacy. Using that whole good cop, bad cop theory of coach hiring, Garner was the perfect, laid-back guy to get the manager's job from Jimy Williams, who was a little more on the prickly side. After Gar was Cecil Cooper, who turned out to have his own prickly side. Naturally, the team thought of the laid-back Garner again...wait, what? I've stopped trying to think about why they'd consider a guy they fired so recently, so let's just move on...

Next up is Pete Mackanin:

Pete Mackanin
     Age: 58
     Hometown: Chicago.
     College: Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Has been interim manager twice, with Pittsburgh in 2005 and Cincinnati in 2007. He went 12-14 in the final 26 games with the Pirates in '05 and 41-39 in the second half of the season two years later with the Reds, who had the worst record in the Majors when Mackanin took over.
     Major League managing record: 53-53.
     Minor League managing experience: Managed in the Minor Leagues for 13 seasons and won championships in 1995 (Ottawa of the International League), 2002 (Lynchburg of the Carolina League) and 1990 (Nashville, Eastern Division championship of the American Association). Mackanin has also managed in Venezuela League, Dominican winter league and Puerto Rican winter league. He also has seven years of Major League coaching experience with Pittsburgh and Montreal.
     Minor League managing record: 917-849.
     Playing experience: Played for nine years as an infielder in the Major Leagues with Texas (1973-74), Montreal (1975-77), Philadelphia (1978-79) and Montreal (1980-81). He hit .226 with 30 homers and 141 RBIs in 548 career games.
      Did you know: Mackanin has been succeeded twice by Jim Tracy as a manager, with Class A Peoria in 1986 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006? He succeeded Tracy as manager at Triple-A Ottawa in 1995.
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Pete served as interim manager it Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and had great results taking over in Cincinnati. I talked to Wayne Krivsky, who as the GM [in Cincinnati] at the time, and he was a really big advocate of Pete's. He has managing experience in winter, extensively in the Minor Leagues and on two Major League club. He has a great personality and a good sense of humor."

The most interesting thing about Mackanin was what he did with the 2007 Reds. That team had 51 losses when he took over in July and went on to win 41 of their last 80 games. Basically, Mackanin played .500 ball for the last half of the season. Of course, those same Reds finished above the league average in runs scored in 2007 but dead last in runs allowed. The Reds were hitting .254 as a team when Mackanin took over and finished by hitting .279 over the last three months of the season, including a team line of .309/.375/.499 in August. Good seasons by Scott Hatteberg, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton show that Mackanin has experience getting the most out of some very different personalities.

Still, the pitching woes of the Reds that season is at least a little troubling. Mackanin used his bullpen for 263 innings and had an ERA above 5 with his relievers in the second half. His overall ERA jumped up to 5.11 from 4.79 as well, though he basically had to cobble together a rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This is definitely another case of a guy who needs to answer quite a few questions about what he sees with the Astros pitching staff.

Next is former Astros shortstop Tim Bogar:

Tim Bogar
     Age: 45
     Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
     College: Eastern Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently first -base coach for Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Spent four seasons as manager in the Minor Leagues with Cleveland (2006-07) and the Astros (2004-05) and went to the playoff in three of those seasons. Led Double-A Akron to the Eastern League title in '06 and '07 and was named the league's Manager of the Year in '06. He was named Manger of the Year in the Appalachian League in 2004 in his first year of managing at Class A Greeneville. The next year, he led Class A Lexington to an 81-58 record, the best record in the South Atlantic League.
     Minor League managing record: 289-200.
     Playing experience: An infielder who spent nine years in the Major Leagues with the New York Mets, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Bogar hit .228 with 24 homers and 161 RBIs in 701 career games. He started a career-high 82 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2000 whiles sharing time with Julio Lugo.
    Did you know: Bogar played all nine positions in an exhibition game for the Mets against Triple-A Norfolk in 1996?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "When this process started, a lot of people spoke very favorable of Tim. I don't know him, but certainly there are multiple people, including people on our interview committee and [president of baseball operations] Tal [Smith] and others, that felt Bogar fit the profile extremely well. Despite the fact he hasn't managed in the big leagues, they felt the experience they had with him and dealing with players [was positive]."

Bogar brings back fond memories of that late '90s playoff era, and has been a surprisingly effective minor league manager. The thing that sticks out to me was a couple years after he retired, he visited the Astros in Kissimmee as a Rawlings sales representative. The irony of a guy known for his glovework selling gloves to teams was not lost on me at the time.

Yet another anecdote I recall from his time with the Astros: some time in that playoff run (I believe it was 1997), Bogar broke his arm and had to spend the rest of the season on the bench. He credited Dierker with helping him see the field as a manager at the time, and claimed it helped him play smarter when he was on the field. Since he never hit much, it was nice to think our shorstop was sort of a manager on the field, and I remember Dierker praising his acumen on helping the fielders around him. Of course, I cannot now find any evidence of this. Still, I do recall reading about that back in the day.

I'm not sure what Bogar's strengths or weaknesses as a manager might be. We can assume that he'd help their fielding, but that's too simple a conjecture to really be true. Plus, the Astros have actually been a pretty good fielding club for the past couple of seasons. For all the grief I've given Tejada for the past two seasons, he's a good defender. Yes, he doesn't really have the range to play short any more, but he's a vacuum cleaner out there when the ball is hit near him.

Lastly, let's look at Brad Mills, bench coach for the Boston Red Sox:

Brad Mills
     Age: 52
     Hometown: Exeter, Calif.
     College: College of the Sequoias/University of Arizona.
     Most recent job: Currently bench coach for the Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Mills managed 11 seasons in the Minor Leagues in the Cubs (1987-92), Rockies (1993-96) and Dodgers (2002) organizations, moving into managing immediately upon the completion of his playing career. He led the Rockies' Triple-A club in Colorado Springs to the playoffs in 1994 and Pacific Coast League title in 1995. He last managed in 2002, when he guided the Dodgers' Triple- A Las Vegas affiliate to a club-record 85 wins the PCL's Southern Division championship.
     Minor League managing record: Unavailable.
     Playing experience: Appeared in 106 career games over four seasons, all with the Montreal Expos (1980-1983). He hit .256 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 168 at-bats.
     Did you know: Mills was Nolan Ryan's 3,509th career strikeout victim, lifting Ryan past Walter Johnson as baseball's all-time strikeout king in 1983?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've always had great respect for Brad. [Boston manager] Terry Francona made a point of calling me when the search began and gave a strong endorsement for Millsy and he got a strong endorsement from [Boston general manager] Theo Epstein. Despite the fact he hasn't managed the big-league level, everyone knows he's got tremendous experience working as [Francona's] right-hand guy in Philadelphia and Boston and managed in the Minor Leagues."

It's easy to assume that the bench coach is the guy next in line for the managerial position. After all, that's what Cecil Cooper did for all those years and it's what a ton of other guys have done over the years (Joe Maddon, possibly? I can't remember anything today). Still, it appears that the pitching coach in Boston, John Farrell, is the heir-apparent to Francona and not Mills. That explains why he'd be interested in our position. Now, why should the Astros care about him? Was this interview just a way to get Bogar on the docket?

Mills is right in the middle of the candidate pool, age-wise. He's not as young as Manny Acta or Bogar, nor is he as old as Garner or Mackanin. He's won consistently in the minor leagues and certainly has been around a winning ball club there in Boston. The Red Sox run their organization the way I'd hope the Astros will someday, making decisions based partly on numbers and partly on traditional scouting. They spend a ton of money, but they just don't throw it around too frivolously (ahem*Dice-K*ahem). How much contact Mills has with this side of the team, I don't know. The other side of that coin is, if that's what Mills is used to, can he work for the Astros, who don't seem to run their team in quite the same way? Food for thought.

Thus endeth Round One. With the word that Manny Acta is a finalist for the Cleveland job, are the Astros now taking too long in their search? What could a second round of interviews possibly tell them that this one didn't? We've already got to wait until after the World Series to announce who the new skipper is, but that doesn't mean they can't go ahead and hire them ahead of time and announce it later. What's your top five list of the candidates and who do you think will end up getting hired?

Poll

Who is your top candidate?

Tim Bogar

34 votes

Pete Mackanin

16 votes

Manny Acta

39 votes

Brad Mills

20 votes

Bob Melvin

25 votes

Al Pedrique

2 votes

Dave Clark

6 votes

Phil Garner

64 votes

Ned Yost

19 votes

Randy Ready

1 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Searching for a Skipper, Part Two

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:35:07 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

5 months ago: In this Aug. 12, 2008 file photo, Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta waits as umpires talk with each other during a baseball game with the New York Mets in Washington. Acta is out as manager of the Washington Nationals. Acting general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed the firing Monday morning, June 13, 2009, in an e-mail to The Associated Press. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez, File)

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When the Astros confirmed that Manny Acta would be the first candidate brought in for an interview, it began what could be a very open managerial search. This is good for us in that we can get an in-depth look at each potential skipper. So, let's continue this with a look at former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta.

Acta was signed as a 17-year old first baseman out of the Dominican Republic by the Astros in 1986. He advanced as high as Double-A in both 1989 and 1990, playing 77 games there and batting .194/.194/.258. Acta played 370 games in the minors and had a career line of .241/.241/.299, including his final season at Low A Burlington, where Acta was a player-coach at age 22. Two years later, in 1993, Acta got his first managerial job with Houston's short season New York-Penn League team, the Auburn Astros. Over the next eight seasons, Acta put together a record of 419-432 with four winning seasons, including two straight at his highest stop, High A Kissimmee in 1999 and 2000. Acta also won a Florida State League title in 1999, coaching players like Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, Keith Ginter and Wayne Franklin. In 2000, Acta coached Roy Oswalt, Tim Redding and Jeriome Robertson.

Acta started coaching in the winter leagues in 1999 as well, starting out in Caracas in the Venezuela Winter League before moving to Licey of the Dominican Winter League in 2002. Acta spent 2001 as a coach on the New Orleans staff, when it was still the Triple-A affiliate of the Astros. Players on that 200 team? Astros Pacific Rim scouting director Glen Barker and Lance Berkman, along with former Astros Scott Elarton, Roger Cedeno, Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink.

Acta was just 33 years old when he was hired as the Washington Nationals new third base coach under manager Frank Robinson in 2002. Acta steadily moved up in the eyes of the Nationals until he was given the mangerial job after Robinson was fired following the 2006 season. Acta also managed the 2006 Dominican Republic entry into the World Baseball Classic, coaching Astros free agent Miguel Tejada and Angels free agent-to-be Vladimir Guerrero as well as former Astros farmhand Francisco Liriano.

So, that brings us to his stint as Washington's manager. In 2007, Acta saw the team to a 73-89 record but revived the career of Dmitri Young. Da Meat Hook even was selected for the All-Star game that July. The Nationals were not great that season, but that was partly because the team had a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.48. Of course, his starters ERA was 5.11, which makes it hard to win any games. Acta used his bullpen for 590 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.81, which we will revisit later on. The other telling stat about his pitching staff is in the 73 wins, the team's ERA was 2.91 while in the 89 losses, it was 9.02. Big difference, huh?

In 2008, the team's ERA jumped up to 4.66 but the starter's ERA was still too high at 4.97. His bullpen threw less innings at 553 1/3, but had a slightly higher ERA at 4.18. The team itself lost 102 games and had just 28 saves in 34 save situations. Offensively, Acta got surprisingly good seasons out of shortstop Christian Guzman, second basmean Ronnie Belliard and outfielder Elijah Dukes. Young had another good season, with an OPS of .794, but Acta was hurt by the roster machinations of GM Jim Bowden.

All those roster moves came to a head in 2009, when Acta and outfielder Lastings Milledge had a very public feud. Milledge was sent down to the minors after playing just seven games. Reportedly, the reason was Acta didn't like how Milledge behaved in meetings and that he had a generally surly attitude. This did not endear Acta to management, and he was let go halfway through the season.

The Nationals never had much talent, but Acta did show a knack for getting good performances out of other team's castoffs. He also didn't overuse a bullpen, and got similar results to the Astros this season (534 1/3 IP, 4.13 ERA). I'm not sure whether he would affect the staff positively or negatively, but he's definitely familiar with some of the pitchers and knows how to not go all Joe Torre on his relievers.

The Milledge incident is also interesting, because it suggests Acta is willing to call people out and hold his players accountable. Of course, it also reminds me a little of how Cooper acted with this team, and we know how that ended. So, I'm sure this incident will be discussed in more depth during the interview with Wade and Co.

I brought up all the players he's coached or is otherwise familiar with to illustrate how the Astros might accept him or how he might handle the current roster. If Berkman and Oswalt are both considered the 'Faces of the Franchise', and they both turned on Coop, it's important to get them on board with the hire. Will their familiarity with Acta help? If Acta can get those two to support his style or his accountability methods, it would go a long way to setting up a successful culture on the team.

One interesting quote from this 2007 interview with Acta was regarding his influence on the organization as a whole:

I’m kept in the loop on everything that’s going on, and I have a say in how we want things done down there. I take a lot of pride in having continuity throughout the organization, all the way from rookie ball to the big leagues.

This is very interesting, since it's not a job the Astros have asked from their big league skipper in quite a while. Sure, the coaches will make a call on when to bring guys up or who makes the roster in spring training, but setting a tone in the minor leagues? Continuity at all levels? That's something the Astros have lacked since Hunsicker left in 2004. Now it seems like Bobby Heck and Ed Wade both set the tone for player development. Where would Acta fit into this scheme?

Another interesting quote from the same interview about his bunting strategy:

Bunting is pretty outdated. Everybody scores so many runs nowadays, it doesn’t make sense to play for one run unless it’s late in the game and it’s close. I hardly ever bunt early in a game, unless it’s with a pitcher. A big inning can win you a game. One run in the third inning can’t, unless you have Pedro pitching.

And of course, his pick for the best pitcher in baseball:

Roy Oswalt. He’s just tough as nails. He comes at you like nobody else. That’s a tough place to pitch, and he’s been very consistent.

Acta is also very interested in using sabermetrics to make better decisions, which is very interesting to the people around this blog, we heady baseball fans. I'm not sure whether this is a good or a bad thing, but it may help get all those bad OBP players out of the every day roster. Nothing drives me crazier than all the guys with OBP under .340. But that strays from the point. Acta is a young guy, who's failed in his first job and is looking for some redemption. Sounds a lot like Bill Belichick after the Cleveland fiasco but before New England. Does that make him the best candidate? No, because he still has done nothing to be successful at the big league level. He does make for an interesting candidate, though.

No Rest, No Problem For Dodger Relievers

Eric Stephen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:55:35 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Going to the bullpen is a welcome sight in Los Angeles.

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Last night, the Dodgers were able to utilize their top four relievers to close out the game. It wasn't the conventional way of course, as Randy Wolf was pulled in the fourth inning, but the Dodgers have to be happy any time they have a lead after five or six innings and can turn the game over to their bullpen. The site of Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton usually means curtains for the other team.

In a perfect world, the Dodgers will get to use those same relievers tonight, perhaps adding a pinch of Ramon Troncoso to the winning recipe. Here's a look at how these relievers did with zero games rest on the season:

	With 0 Days Rest					With Rest
Pitcher	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG
Broxton	26	1.71	2.73	11.96	.151/.216/.172	47	3.08	3.81	14.32	.172/.263/.264
Sherrill*	21	3.32	4.26	10.42	.200/.291/.286	51	1.08	2.70	7.02	.212/.277/.315
Kuo	3	7.71	11.42	15.43	.250/.455/.625	32	2.60	3.25	9.11	.194/.282/.276
Belisario	19	0.96	3.86	6.75	.206/.316/.279	50	2.42	3.63	8.65	.199/.286/.288

*I used Sherrill's numbers for the entire season, including his time in Baltimore.

There's really not a huge difference either way for Broxton, Sherrill, and Belisario, who have been used on back-to-back days quite often this season. The outlier is Kuo, who was only used three times in such situations all season, an understandable strategy given his injury history. Kuo was ineffective in one of his three outings, giving up a couple runs to Atlanta, a game in which he allowed his only home run since returning from the disabled list in late July. Aside from the small sample size, don't be alarmed by the high walk rate with no rest for Kuo; two of his three walks were intentionally issued to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to set up one of the most thrilling strikeouts of the season, the "I want Parkman" moment, if you will.

Since it's the playoffs, I would guess Kuo is available again today, if needed, although Ramon Troncoso might be added to the mix as well. Then again, Clayton Kershaw could shorten the game all by himself. But should the Dodgers need to go to the bullpen again today, fear not.

**********

Here are the lineups. The only change for either team is Julio Lugo starting at 2B instead of Skip Schumaker.

Cardinals		Dodgers
2B	Lugo	SS	Furcal
SS	Ryan	CF	Kemp
1B	Pujols	RF	Ethier
LF	Holliday	LF	Manny
RF	Ludwick	1B	Loney
C	Molina	3B	Blake
3B	DeRosa	2B	Belliard
CF	Rasmus	C	Martin
P	Wainwright	P	Kershaw

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

A Brief Look At The Cardinals

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:00:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here is a brief first impression of the St. Louis Cardinals, who will travel to Dodger Stadium to start the division series on Wednesday.

The Cardinals can't hit left-handed pitching

On the season, the Cardinals had the worst OPS in all of baseball against southpaws, hitting .234/.312/.363. However, back in July they bolstered their roster by adding right-handed hitters Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo. They have helped, but this is still a weakness to exploit. July 24 was Holliday's first game in Cardinal Red, and from that day forward, the club hit .250/.324/.374 against lefties.

With Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw starting in the first two games of the series, and Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill waiting to drop the hammer in the later innings, look for the Dodger lefties make a huge impact in this series.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are really, really good

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will likely each finish in the top three in National League Cy Young voting, have started a total of 62 games. The Cardinals have won 41 of those games. Carpenter led the National League in ERA with a 2.24 mark, and Wainwright wasn't far behind at 2.63. They were sixth and seventh in the NL in x-FIP, at 3.46 and 3.45, respectively. Both were in the top ten in baseball in innings per start, at 6.9 each.

Carpenter has pitched seven innings or longer in 18 of 28 starts, and gave up more than three runs in a game just three times all season. He's also a control artist, having walked more than two batters only thrice this year. Wainwright pitched seven innings or more in 21 of 34 starts, and allowed more than three runs only seven times.

Don't forget about Joel Pineiro

Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan should bottle whatever magic potion he used on Joel Pineiro, because Pineiro has turned in the finest season of his career. Pineiro doesn't strike out anyone -- his 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings is 86th among 87 MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title -- but he does just about everything else well.

Pineiro led baseball with an absurdly low 1.12 walks per nine innings, and his rate of 0.43 home runs per nine is second in baseball. Bad news for Dodger fans is that number one in homers allowed per nine innings is Carpenter, at 0.33. I would really love to explain Pineiro's success as luck or a fluke, but his x-FIP is an impressive 3.73, good for 10th in the National League, giving the Cardinals three starters with a better x-FIP than the Dodger-best 3.94 of Clayton Kershaw.

Outside of the big two, this lineup can be pitched to

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and will provide a steady dose of anxiety for Dodger fans this entire series. Matt Holliday has been superb since coming back to the National League. These two we know about, with their .451 and .421 wOBA, respectively. However, the rest of the lineup features no real threat. Nobody else features an OPS+ above 105, and the next highest wOBA on the team are Julio Lugo at .347 (he's at .339 on the season including his Boston numbers), and Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick at .337 each, barely above league average. I realize the same can be said about the Dodger lineup, but color me unimpressed by anyone outside the 3-4 spots in red. If the situation comes up again where Hong Chih-Kuo or another Dodger pitcher needs to walk both Pujols and Holliday to retire an inferior hitter, sign me up for another strikeout of Ludwick or Rick Ankiel, or someone similar.

Rick Ankiel is Jeff Francoeur with a better backstory

I liked Rick Ankiel the pitcher. I was sad when he lost the ability to throw strikes. I loved the fact that he was able to make it back to the majors as a position player. It was a great, feel good story for a while. But it's over. Ankiel is hitting .231/.283/.387 this season. Rookie Colby Rasmus, meanwhile, is hitting .253/.308/.411. Plus/minus rates them about even defensively (-1 for Ankiel, -2 for Rasmus in about double the innings), while Ultimate Zone Rating shows a wider gap (Rasmus at +11.2 UZR/150, Ankiel at -10.1). St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz was a guest on Sunday's postgame DodgerTalk on KABC, and he mentioned the Cardinals might consider starting Ankiel against the Dodgers' two lefty starting pitchers in the first two games (both Ankiel and Rasmus bat from the left side), because the club feels Ankiel hits lefties better. A closer look at the numbers reveals a reason:

Player	PA	BA/OBP/SLG	BABIP
Ankiel	98	.234/.265/.298	.338
Rasmus	113	.163/.223/.260	.189

It seems to me the difference in their performance against lefties can be explained by luck, as Rasmus' batting average on balls in play is remarkably low. The bottom line is that Ankiel is a replacement level player (at 0.0 Wins Above Replacement), and any time he takes away from Rasmus this series is great news for the Dodgers.

**********

Rosters don't have to be submitted until 10am on Wednesday, but it appears the Cardinals will carry 12 pitchers, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Viva El Birdos is the Cardinals' blog on SB Nation. Be sure to check their site for in-depth analysis of the Cardinals. For instance, here is a thorough review by chuckb of the most valuable Cardinals in 2009.

This series will be close, and as we have seen in previous years, the results of the series can change at the drop of a hat. A grand slam here, a throwing error there, and the series changes direction in a heartbeat.

Homers in the lineup, Homer's on the mound. Can't nobody beat us, we're the best damn team around! Reds win, 7-2.

Brendanukkah — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:01:20 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Jay Bruce doesn't like autotune. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jay Bruce. Hova went 2-4, but his Two Bomb Turks provided five RBI, a career high.

Key Plays

In the second inning, Brandon Phillips used his speed to reach on an infield single, and Scott Rolen drew a walk. Then Jay Bruce announced that he was here to hit home runs and chew bubble gum... and he was all outta bubble gum. Reds 3, Cardinals 0.
Joey Votto then made a matching donation to Jay Bruce's Give Kids In the Outfield Seats a Baseball Fund. Reds 4, Cardinals 0.
The Cardinals began to threaten in the fifth inning. Jason LaRue got an infield hit (!), Skip Schumaker walked. Julio Lugo singled to load the bases with one out and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday coming to the plate. Pujols hit a sacrifice fly, and Holliday grounded out to second. One run scored in a very Classic Reds performance. Reds 4, Cardinals 1.
Bartender! Gimme some triple sec! ...Which is my Neil Everett way of saying Brandon Phillips tripled in the sixth. Scott Rolen singled him in, and then Jay Bruce hit his second homer of the night to put the Reds up, 7-1.
Someone named D Freese hit a home run for St. Louis in the ninth inning. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Jay Bruce's third multihomer game of the season and fifth of his career.
Speaking of five of things, Albert Pujols has five grand slams this season. His sacrifice fly was darn close to being number six.
"Cardinal-eater" Homer Bailey is now 1-3 against the Cards with a 7.06 ERA in five starts.
However, Homer is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his last eight starts.
Jay Bruce now has career highs in home runs and RBI. Votto is one home run and three RBI from setting career highs in those marks. Hey, remember all those times that Votto's come to bat with two runners on ahead of him?

Final - 9.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	9	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	3	1	0	0	3	0	0	X	7	8	0
WP: Homer Bailey (7 - 5) LP: Joel Pineiro (15 - 12)

Complete Coverage >

NLDS Preview(?) Preview

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:09:02 -0000

I haven't read all of the comments, or really even most of them, over the last two days, but I'm sure it's safe to say there's a little panic going on. Thanks be to the Cards for some perspective. Remember the last time we faced St. Louis? We were 21-32 and just avoided a four game sweep to lowly Houston. We were 3-4 with Jim Tracy and facing the top two teams in the NL Central.

Fast forward. The second time the two teams square off is 3.5 months later, and it could be a preview of the an NLDS matchup. The Cardinals would need to finish ahead of Philadelphia, who currently outpaces St. Louis by a half game. From the cellar to a playoff preview. That's a nice little jump.

The Cards have been strong since that matchup too. After getting swept by the Rockies, St. Louis has gone a stout 68-37. The pitching was always there, but the offensive lineup received much-needed reinforcements. They needed extra parts, and the last time we faced them, Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday were rumored to be of interest to the Cards. Either the FO is impressionable by the press, loose-lipped with their plans or it's a happy coincidence, but they indeed added both also acquiring Julio Lugo after being dumped by Boston. In an ironic twist, RMN commented that he traded Holliday for Brett Wallace in a sim league well before that trade came to pass.

With the offense strengthened and the best rotation around, the Cards are a force (though less than 10 runs ahead of COL in run differential) and a good measuring stick, but the Rockies are solid at home. That series loss to San Diego was only the second in their last 12 at Coors Field.

With a magic number of seven, the Rockies cannot clinch anything this weekend. The Cardinals can clinch the NL Central with a win or Cubs loss.

Go make a positive rapport with Cards fans, especially if they indeed become a first round (or even second round) opponent. Here: Viva El Birdos

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (3.5 GB) @ Washington: Javier Vazquez (14-9) vs John Lannan (9-12). Tommy Hanson (10-4) vs. Garrett Mock (3-9). Derek Lowe (14-9) vs. Livan Hernandez (8-12).

San Francisco (4 GB) vs. Chicago Cubs: Tim Lincecum (14-6) vs. Carlos Zambrano (8-6). Barry Zito (10-12) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (6-2). Matt Cain (13-7) vs. Randy Wells (11-9).

Florida (4 GB) vs New York Mets: Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Tim Redding (3-6). Sean West (7-6) vs. John Maine (6-5). Josh Johnson (15-5) vs. Pat Misch (1-4).

St. Louis Cardinals (89-64, W1, 1st, MN=1)

Friday-Monday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

St. Louis' offense was very weak the last time we saw them. Suddenly hitters who were ill-prepared to shoulder the load of being the main threats in the lineup can now be role players.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Skip Schumaker - 2B	.304	4	35	.352	.377	.337	102
Colby Rasmus - CF	.258	16	51	.311	.423	.318	93
Albert Pujols - 1B	.330	47	129	.398	.557	.455	193
Matt Holliday - LF	.312	24	104	.391	.520	.391	143
Ryan Ludwick - RF	.271	20	89	.342	.408	.339	105
Mark DeRosa - 3B	.256	23	78	.324	.447	.334	100
Yadier Molina - C	.291	6	51	.309	.401	.338	99
Julio Lugo - SS	.260	3	20	.349	.414	.342	98

I included OPS+ in part to include the varied home parks DeRosa, Lugo and Holliday played in prior to their acquisition. Using a compilation of the stats, we can deduce that Pujols is a god/machine/alien and that Matt Holliday is an absolute All-Star quality stud. Ludwick is a bit above average while DeRosa, Lugo and Schumaker all come in at about average. Yadier Molina is quietly having a better offensive season than his brother Bengie, who gets to bat cleanup, and Colby Rasmus is having a rocky rookie season, though he's still a threat. There are no easy outs anymore. They have come a long way since having Khalil Greene hitting cleanup. And ohbytheway, Holliday is hitting .355 with 13 HR, 50 RBI and a .430 wOBA/172 OPS+ in 55 games with St. Louis. Someone wanted out of Oakland.

The bench currently houses Rick-throw-me-a-damn-fastball-Ankiel (.235, 11, 37), who has been splitting time with Rasmus in center. He is listed as the only reserve OF. David Freese (3-for-19), Troy Glaus (3-for-17), Khalil Greene (.205, 6, 24), Tyler Greene (.219, 2, 17), Brendan Ryan (.289, 3, 35) and Joe Thurston (.232, 1, 35) make up a predominantly right-handed bench as reserve infielders. The two current backup catchers are Jason LaRue (.239, 1, 3) and Matt Pagnozzi (No AB).

Check under the fold for reports on the arms, defense, pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The starting pitching for St. Louis has been tremendous. Pitching in a fairly neutral park, the rotation has put up elite numbers:

Name	Stat	MLB Rank
ERA	3.60	2nd
FIP	3.57	1st
BB/9	2.36	1st
WHIP	1.27	2nd
HR/9	0.69	1st
K/BB	2.66	2nd

Give those numbers to one starting pitcher with a good offense and you may have a Cy Young candidate. But that's the entire staff. We'll get the top two in the rotation in Carpenter and Wainwright. Joel Pineiro has been bumped back a start, so we'll get a bit of a break with Kyle Lohse taking the bump, but that rotation is scary, even with Lohse in it.

The relievers have gotten better too, pushing their pen ERA down to 5th in MLB at 3.66. However, FIP (4.30) and tRA (4.88) don't like their pen at all, mostly since they lead MLB in pen BABIP at .276. Closer Ryan Franklin has had an All-Star season by limiting home runs and hits in general, though again, fancy metrics don't really like him (tRA=3.81, FIP=3.19).

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Franklin	4-3	60	0	0	0	37	5	59.0	46	13	13	2	21	43	1.98	1.14

The rest of the bullpen includes RH's Mitchell Boggs (96 ERA+), Blake Hawksworth (185), Josh Kinney (69), Kyle McClennan (150), Jason Motte (86), Todd Wellemeyer (72), and Brad Thompson (84). Tony LaRussa has just two lefties: Trevor Miller (211) and Dennys Reyes (127).

The Gloves: C

St. Louis has a very average 0.1 UZR/150, are right in the middle at 15th with 88 errors, and have the 14th best Fangraphs value. Easy grade of C, right? Don't forget though that the Cards have completely different starters on the left side of the diamond from the first half of the season, rendering season-long metrics as such inaccurate.

Their D up the middle is very bad. Skip Schumaker is doing enough to validate having him in the lineup after his transition to second, but he's the worst graded defensive 2B in the game this year. Julio Lugo is a big downgrade from Brendan Ryan. We know Holliday can handle Coors Field. He has a very strong Fangraphs value for the last three years...except with St. Louis. Colby Rasmus is solid in CF and Albert Pujols has a Gold Glove on his mantle. The rest of the starters are at least average. So two deadweights, two fairly good and the rest slightly above average. Eh, C it is.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Carpenter	16-4	26	26	3	1	0	0	180.2	148	48	47	7	34	136	2.34	1.01

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-6	26	25	1	1	0	0	145.0	167	75	72	18	46	75	4.47	1.47

Any hope for Todd Helton to win NL Comeback Player of the Year ended with Chris Carpenter's Cy Young contending performance this year. Quite frankly, you know you're right when your ERA, FIP and tRA are all under 3.0. We unfortunately missed him in June, because we would have hurt his career numbers against the Rockies - 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in 4 starts. Nowhere to go but up, right? He is in the top ten in MLB in Fangraphs pitch ratings for his fastball (7th), slider (7th) and curveball (9th). Three starts ago, he threw a complete game one-hit shutout. Last Saturday, he tossed 8 scoreless innings. But in the start between, the Braves ravaged him for seven runs. I'd say someone needs to call Bobby Cox, but I don't think he'd help us out very much right now. We all know Cook's story. He's returning from the disabled list after multiple injuries and bad starts, this after his simulated game was less impressive than a pitcher who has been out all year with a career-threatening injury. His audition for the playoffs starts now. Favors: CARDINALS strongly

Saturday, September 26, 6:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Adam Wainwright	18-8	38	32	1	0	0	0	219.0	201	69	63	16	63	193	2.59	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	14-11	31	31	1	0	0	0	205.0	175	82	79	12	78	181	3.47	1.23

What, another Cy Young caliber right-hander? Not fair. Wainwright has not been quite as effective as Carpenter, but not by much. The MLB's co-leader in wins has allowed more than 2 ER just 3 times in his last 21 starts, since facing Colorado to start June. We was awarded with a win in all three of those starts. His curveball value is 2nd in MLB and his slider is 5th, but that fastball has been hit around a bit. Some dude named Jason Berken in Baltimore has a fastball graded out as better than Wainwright's. He has won 11 of his 14 road starts, though his road ERA is nearly twice that of his ERA at Busch Stadium. After one atypical Ubaldo start and one trainwreck, Jimenez righted the ship with a strong gritty performance against the D-Backs. His leg should be completely healed by know, so he can commence firing unhittable sidewinders at Yorvit Torrealba. He has won 8 of 14 starts at Coors, where he has a better ERA than on the road. Favors: ROCKIES slightly

Sunday, September 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kyle Lohse	6-8	21	20	1	1	0	0	106.2	111	60	57	15	34	68	4.81	1.36

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	31	30	0	0	0	0	177.0	168	92	87	20	80	181	4.42	1.40

Kyle Lohse will always be connected to Kazuo Matsui in the minds of Rockies' fans. Tony LaRussa gave the Rockies a gift (unless we face them in the playoffs) by pushing Joel Pineiro back and letting us face Lohse. The right-hander is having his standard career season, being a step below average. He's 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in 5 career regular season starts against the Rox, 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two Coors starts. Jorge de la Rosa leaned over and unleashed a merciless stinker in his last start, but let's not forget opponents failed to score more than 3 ER off him in 15 of his last 18 starts. We ought not worry unless it becomes a trend. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

Albert Pujols is on a tear. When is he not? The Machine is hitting .385 with 6 HR and 8 2Bs in September. Matt Holliday has a hit in 19 of his 20 September starts. Those two plus Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina make up a majority of the starting lineup that is hitting over .300 this month.

Ryan Franklin has broken his hot streak (saves in 13 straight appearances, 14 straight scoreless appearances) in a big way. The Cards' closer has blown three straight save ops, has been scored upon in 4 of his 8 September outings and has an ERA approaching 9 this month. Mark DeRosa has multi-hit games in 2 of his last 3, but he's hitting just .224 for the month.

St. Louis looks primed to head into the playoffs exactly as they want to. Troy Glaus has a strained oblique and may or may not return this season, and Brendan Ryan is "questionable" with a stiff pinky finger, but he is active and available to pinch run. That's it. There are no other injuries. I'm pretty sure I myself am more bumped and bruised than their entire roster.

Poll

Because we should only worry about what the Rockies are doing, with a 3.5 game lead, do the Rockies help their chances this weekend?

Those Cardinals scare BadMarquis right out of me. We are so getting swept.

10 votes

No way. If you can't beat the Padres at home, you'll lose a series against a very strong St. Louis team

41 votes

Yeah. We'll right the ship with a series win, decreasing the chances of missing the playoffs by half

51 votes

Hot damn. We already swept season series from the Reds and Nats. Time to add another red team.

10 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed