SB Nation - Manny Ramirez

Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?

James Kannengieser — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:30:12 -0000

The first Winter Meetings of the Twitter era is now complete - thank goodness.

Meet the Mets

The big news of the day, as first reported by Mike Francesa, was the Mets' offer to Jason Bay in the neighborhood of four years, $65 million. If he accepted it would probably be an overpay but not a terrible contract for a team with the Mets' resources. Anything much higher than the initial offer would be bad news. Matt Holliday is obviously preferable but it would be nice to have a slugging corner outfielder for a change. The nightmare scenario would be paying Bay $16-17 million per season, then watching Holliday sign for $18-19 million. I wonder if people would continue saying the Alex Cora and Henry Blanco signings wouldn't hinder the Mets this offseason?

One bizarre aspect of the Bay offer is the revelation that the Mets think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday. That's almost certainly not true. Bay probably isn't as bad as UZR suggests the last couple seasons but I don't think an argument can be made that he's anything better than below average.

Mets Fever goes into great detail extolling the intangible virtues of Bengie Molina and endorses a two year, $12 million contract. This topic has been beaten into the ground but I say again: Bengie Molina is not worth anything more than a one year deal for very small money. Yes, he caught the 2002 World Champion Angels. That was a long time ago. I think Tim Lincecum would have won the last two Cy Youngs without Bengie. Three measures of catcher defense (Driveline Mechanics, Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus) all rated Molina as below average in 2009. He's just not very good at anything except swinging at every pitch within a ten foot radius of home plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Mets' Rule 5 Draft activity left many people scratching their heads. Additionally, in a decent move, they signed minor league pitcher Clint Everts.

Joe Janish at Mets Today offers up a recap of the Winter Meetings' last day.

Josh Thole is leaving his Venezuela Winter League team after dominating over the last several weeks. He hopes to compete for a spot on the Opening Day Roster.

Rivers McCown fires up the Manny Ramirez what-if machine.

Around the NL East

Talking Chop reviews the Braves Winter Meetings activity.

FishStripes looks at the Marlins Rule 5 pick.

The Fightins' notes a weird compliment of Placido Polanco by Jim Leyland.

Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies and Angels are the leaders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

Around MLB

The Royals released Mike Jacobs just before the Rule 5 Draft.

The Red Sox agreed to send Mike Lowell to the Rangers, with the Red Sox picking up some of his salary.

MLBTradeRumors provides a massive recap of the Winter Meetings.

Off topic - Jonah Keri writes a thoughtful post about pickup basketball.

Off topic 2 - that bastion of great journalism, the Daily News, produces another nonsensical sports column.

Dodgers' Juan Pierre drawing interest

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:02:39 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Browse more photos »

Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre is reportedly drawing interest from three or four teams, according to Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports. Pierre, who didn't miss a game between 2003-2007, has had his time cut significantly since joining the Dodgers. In 2009, he had more of an opportunity to prove his value with Manny Ramirez missing 50 games.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Juan Pierre	145	380	57	117	16	8	0	31	27	27	30	12	.308	.365	.392

Pierre is one of the top leadoff hitters and base runners in the game. He has two years and 18.5 million dollars left on his contract, so a trade is reasonable.

Henson mentions a three-way trade that would land the Dodgers a "bad contract" starting pitcher. While I thought of the usual bad contract pitchers (Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, etc) I thought about what teams have been trying to work three-way deals lately.

The Cubs and Rangers have been discussing a deal around Milton Bradley. While it is unclear if the Cubs have asked for Kevin Millwood, bringing in a third team could entice the Rangers.

Here are the three players and their contracts:

Kevin Millwood - 1 year, 12 million

Milton Bradley - 2 year, 21 million

Juan Pierre - 2 year, 18.5 million

If the Cubs agreed to trade Bradley and cash for Pierre and basically swapped contracts, then the Dodgers could trade Bradley with the money from the Cubs for Millwood.

Say the Cubs covered the difference between Bradley and Pierre, and included 5-6 million dollars more. I'll let you know tomorrow if it has been discussed.

Frank McCourt has a strange way of defining "Business as Usual"

Phil Gurnee — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:09:13 -0000

Eric seemed a bit ticked off today as Frank McCourt proved once again that economics is more important then fielding the best team now and in the future. When Ned Colletti was hired among the news of the divorce he said he was told that the Dodgers would conduct "Business as Usual". And he's right, the Dodgers are conducting business as usual for them. Ever since the summer of 2008 Frank has shown that he's more concerned with saving money and playing in the now then he is in the long term future of his Dodgers. Move after move has saved him money in the short term while allowing him to compete in the short term, but this strategy can only work so long, and just like leveraging the team time and time again at some point you have to pay the piper.

Many seemed shocked by todays news that the Dodgers would not offer Wolf/Hudson arbitration. I'm not sure why, the Dodgers have clearly had a trend for the last 18 months of saving money at every opportunity and being risk averse when it comes to arbitration.

Cost cutting moves since the summer of 2008.

2008

1. Selling/Trading Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan to the Indians for a free and clear Casey Blake. The ramifications were the loss of the best player in the California League who played a premium position in exchange for a good 3rd baseman for the current team at zero cost saving the team around $2,000,000. The only thing wrong with the deal was that to get the Indians to play Casey's salary the price seemed much much to high when you consider who the Indians got from the Brewers when they traded CC and didn't pay any salary.

2. Trading/Selling 2007 2nd round pick Michael Watt for Greg Maddux. Nothing wrong with getting Maddux but since we didn't want to pay any salary the cost of the prospect was kind of high for a 40 something year old pitcher who could barely go 5 quality innings.

3. Trading/Selling Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris for Manny Ramirez. Nothing wrong with acquiring Manny but again the Dodgers managed to acquire a player for the post season push at no financial cost to them by trading prospects.

In 2008 the Dodgers managed to trade Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan/Michael Watt/Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris and acquire Manny/Blake/Maddux while not taking on any salary. Surely a short term bonus to the team but quite a price to pay for the future instead of just spending some money.

2009

1. Deferring Andruw Jone's contract instead of simply eating it and not having to worry about the cost in the future. By deferring his contract it allowed them to sign Wolf/Hudson/Manny.

2. Deferring Manny's two year deal so that the pain would endure for many years to come.

3. Trading Tony Abreu for Jon Garland. The cash strapped Diamondbacks threw in some money ($3,661,102) to cover Garlands buy out and for that price they got someone who will probably be there starting 2nd baseman in 2010. The Diamondbacks now have a cheap 2nd baseman for the next several years while Dodgers have no Garland and no 2nd baseman.

4. Shockingly the Sherrill trade was not about money, but the long term ramifications might be felt for years to come as Josh Bell and Steve Johnson were ripped from the system.

5. With the possibility of gaining four high draft picks the Dodgers opt to not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson because of the fear of having to pay them even though the odds of them accepting arbitration were not very high. And even if they did accept, one year deals for productive players in their 30's is usually a good plan of attack. For once they may have screwed themselves not only in the short term but in the long term. In the long term Eric noted the value of those draft picks is in the millions with these tweets from Jay Jaffe:

4 years ago Nate Silver estimated that team losing type A f-a is compensated with $12 million in draft picks.

So, for avoiding 4 bonuses ($1-2 mil per, max), Dodgers lose out on $24 mil of picks by not offering Hudson & Wolf arb. #mccourtsmustgo

In the short term we certainly could have used either Wolf or Hudson in 2010 on one year deals.

Also in 2008/2009 the Memories of Kevin Malone chronicles how the Dodgers over the last two years have spent the least amount of money on draft bonuses

The Dodgers have paid $8.5 million in signing bonuses for draft picks over the last two years -- the lowest figure among all major league teams, according to Baseball America.

The Dodgers, so proud of their heritage in Asia and Latin America, today are a non-factor in bidding for top amateur players abroad. In 2008, according to Baseball America, major league clubs combined to sign 115 such players for bonuses of more than $100,000. The Dodgers did not sign one.

Let us not forget how they handled the following draft picks as Eric reported in the comments.

2006: Dodgers draft Alex White in 14th round, big time talented P out of HS, don’t sign him (he went #15 to Indians in 2009)
2007: Dodgers draft Kyle Blair in 5th round, fail to sign him for $1.35m…he goes to USD and will be 1st rounder in2010.

And you wonder why I was shocked that Garret Gould was signed. I wonder what Logan White had to do to make that happen?

Face it, this ownership has cash flow problems and has done everything it can possibly do to mitigate current financial obligations by either deferring the problems to the future or selling assets (prospects) to help them compete in the short term. A $100 Million dollar payroll is no small amount but when your competition in the NLCS is spending $140 Million it might seem you are playing with an arm tied behind your back. However the Padres won't feel sorry for the Dodgers since the Dodgers outspend the Padres by the same margin.

Amazingly with all of this the team still has a core good enough to get back to the postseason but now I'm wondering who will be next to finance the short term goal as they throw the long term vision away?

If Frank came out and said, you know I've got some financial problems and we need to cut back until we get this straightened out, I'd feel like writing a Hobo Frank column saying we should support this team. I could live with the current team as we throw out Haeger/McDonald/Elbert/Lindblom into the rotation along with a host of cheap NRI's. I could live with DeWitt/Belliard manning 2nd base until DeJesus is ready. I can live with having to go cheap with the farm in combination with what we currently have. What I can't live with is bullshit PR spin about Business as Usual and the selling of the future because they don't have the cash for the present. This may be business as usual for Frank McCourt but it is not how Dodgers fans expect the team to be run. At least I hope not.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:00:41 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

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Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

MLB Trade Rumors: Juan Pierre to be Traded??

raygu — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre dives into third for a triple during the first inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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In Sunday's article by Dylan Hernancez of the LA Times, Hernandez mentions the following when discussing some of the Dodger's offseason plans:

The Dodgers are expected to explore the possibility of dealing fourth outfielder Juan Pierre for an overpaid back-of-the-rotation pitcher in a trade that would essentially amount to a swap of bad contracts. Pierre is owed $18.5 million over the next two seasons.

This is not news as the Dodgers have been trying to deal Pierre since last offseason, but his contract prevented teams from trading for him. But Pierre put together a pretty good season in 2009, especially when he filled in for Manny Ramirez during his suspension. There was one school of thought that the Dodgers were a better team when Pierre was in the lineup.

Pierre was fourth in the NL in stolen bases in 2009, stealing 30 bases in 42 attempts. In 380 ABs, Pierre went 0-31-30-.308-.365-.392-.757. His OBP, OPS, BB% and BB/K% was his highest since his 2004 season with the Marlins.

More after the jump:

The first name that popped into my mind was the Braves Derek Lowe. I am not sure Lowe is considered a back of the rotation starter, but he does have a bad contract paying him $15 million over the next 3 seasons. Lowe went 15-10 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 2009. Lowe was hurt by an increase in his BB% from 1.92 in 2008 to 2.91 in 2009. His K/BB% fell from 3.27 in 2008 to 1.76 in 2009. Lowe's BABIP also increased from .287 in 2008 to .330 in 2009, well above his career BABIP of 0.299.

Another pitcher I thought of was the Mets Oliver Perez who has two years and $24 million left on his contract. If the Mets decide they want to field a team that plays to the size of its ballpark, they could look to Pierre to play LF. Or, if they decide that Carlos Beltran's knees can't take centerfield anymore, they could put Pierre in center, moving Beltran to LF. Pierre could bat leadoff with Jose Reyes batting second in the lineup, should he be healthy in 2010.

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

11/19 - My Bad, Tito is Awesome

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:15:08 -0000

Terry Francona Hopes Red Sox Re-Sign Jason Bay - NESN.com

Of course. He's a player's manager, and he wants to support the guy who he thinks will be signed, right? I mean, he's one of those guys that believes heart and sportsmanship wins games...

Coaches Tim Bogar, DeMarlo Hale to Step Up Following Departure of Brad Mills - Terry Francona - NESN.com

Wow, he explains why "team chemistry" is a load of bull. Maybe I was wrong about Tito...

Our Manager is a Closet Stat Geek? - Yawkey Way Academy

Tito needs to talk about stuff like this more often - I was totally wrong when I said Tito was loyal to a fault. My bad. I really hope we get to see the saberfriendly Tito in action a lot more this season, so that we'll at least know what the thought process is if there's a controversial decision.

VORP v RARP - Inside the Book

Since ESPN has decided that VORP can be grasped by our feeble minds, you might as well find out how it compares to Baseball Prospectus's OTHER value stat.

What John Henry Can Learn From Belichick’s 4th and 2 - Fire Brand of the American League

Still, despite the loss, the second-guessing, and the media advocating for everything short of an all-out lynching of BIll Belichick, John Henry should use this occasion as an opportunity to learn something from Robert Kraft.

Since there's a couple Pats fans on here, this link will probably mean more to y'all.

After the jump, a look at the pay scale for the 2009 free agents, "modern" Moneyball, and some recognition for some of the most important Sox of the decade.

How much did the 2009 free agents sign for, per win?

Apparently 1 year deals ain't such a bad idea.

Defense and the Modern Moneyball - Yawkey Way Academy

Boston's Shortstop of the Future is Right Under Our Noses - NESN.com

Yay, the MSM has finally take a liking to Je- wait, what? Iglesias? How is he any sort of secret at this point?

Chone Figgins Could Add Explosive Dimension to Boston's Offensive Strategy - NESN.com

If you're going to make the argument, I'd recommend not using steals as your #1 support - it's been proven that they aren't nearly as valuable as most people think.

Jason Varitek Needs to Knuckle Down, Catch Tim Wakefield - NESN.com

Jason Varitek has come up with clutch hits and incredible defensive plays, he's called a record four no-hitters and he has maintained order in a clubhouse with personalities like Manny Ramirez and Carl Everett. However, if Varitek wants to make the most of his next -- and potentially, his final -- season of Boston baseball, then the captain is going to have learn how to catch the knuckleball.

Okay, not only is this factually wrong (he caught Wake when he first joined the Sox), it's also dumb. The argument of getting Vic rest should be used for Tek catching either Dice or Beckett, the two who "need" him.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade LF: Manny Ramirez - Fire Brand of the American League

What, you were expecting Bay or something? Oh, wait, Hermida's going to be our LF next season, so he'd obviously be a better choice.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP1: Mike Timlin - Fire Brand of the American League

Still have the urge to blindfold myself at the mention of his name, but that's not important.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP3: Alan Embree - Fire Brand of the American League

Closed out the 2004 ALCS, then proceeded to spiral into relative oblivion.

Comments, links, and general discussion to keep the irritable among us happy with new material would all be greatly appreciated.

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Eric Stephen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:09:38 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez join fellow outfielder Matt Kemp as the only Dodgers projected by CHONE to have an OPS of .800 or above in 2010.

Browse more photos »

Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way. His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 CHONE	.286	.384	.434	.818
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 Bill James	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 CHONE	.273	.364	.407	.771
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 CHONE	.294	.355	.446	.801
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 Bill James	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 CHONE	.292	.354	.444	.798
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 CHONE	.276	.353	.407	.760
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 Bill James	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 CHONE	.270	.342	.395	.737
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 CHONE	.272	.331	.419	.750
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 Bill James	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 CHONE	.256	.313	.404	.717
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 CHONE	.284	.358	.412	.770
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 Bill James	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 CHONE	.273	.342	.388	.730
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 CHONE	.259	.336	.439	.775
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 Bill James	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 CHONE	.256	.331	.430	.761
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 CHONE	.291	.408	.556	.964
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 Bill James	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 CHONE	.272	.368	.501	.869
2010 status	under contract

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 CHONE	.299	.353	.476	.829
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 Bill James	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 CHONE	.297	.351	.492	.843
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 CHONE	.292	.366	.468	.834
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 Bill James	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 CHONE	.281	.356	.488	.844
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 CHONE	.283	.328	.357	.685
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 Bill James	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 CHONE	.287	.335	.369	.704
2010 status	under contract

You can get the full list of Dodgers' CHONE projections here.

Looking at the CHONE projections, I thought the mythical battle for fourth outfielder was interesting:

2010 CHONE Projections
4th Outfielder	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mitch Jones	.228	.306	.435	.741
Hector Luna	.261	.324	.408	.732
Xavier Paul	.259	.323	.390	.713
Jamie Hoffmann	.255	.328	.379	.707
Juan Pierre	.287	.335	.369	.704

SB Nation - Manny Ramirez

Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?

Dodgers' Juan Pierre drawing interest

Frank McCourt has a strange way of defining "Business as Usual"

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Arizona

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

Colorado

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

San Diego

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

MLB Trade Rumors: Juan Pierre to be Traded??

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

11/19 - My Bad, Tito is Awesome

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Infield

Outfield