SB Nation - Tyler Walker

DEEP HURTING: Astros 8, Phillies 2

WholeCamels — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:18:49 -0000

This is Yorman Bazardo. He makes you sad. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Another rookie pitcher with a 6.00+ ERA dominates the Phillies, another bang up job by the bullpen to make a closer game a laugher, another Braves victory, and the Magic Number remains at 3.

Astros' rookie Yorman Bazardo held the Phillies to just two hits and two runs (one on a balk) over 5 2/3 innings pitched, with the Phillies hitting bolts right at the Houston fielders, while Cole Hamels for the Phillies fell victim to bloops and broken bat dribblers, and was on the hook for six of the Astros eight runs over 6 2/3 innings, the last two of which were allowed to score when Tyler Walker failed to get an out in the seventh inning. The Astros scored five runs in the seventh inning -- all with two outs.

The Astros bullpen did their job, pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings and surviving a little "scare" in the ninth but escaping after Greg Dobbs grounded into a double play to end the game.

The Phillies 3-7 hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Feliz) went 1-for-15 with three walks, which tells you about all you need to know about the offense tonight.

God this is painful to watch.

Looking To Make History: Cubs vs. Giants Preview, Sunday 9/27, 3:05 CT

Al — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

I just like this photo of So Taguchi. Scoring runs is fun!

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The Giants moved from New York to San Francisco 51 years ago, in 1958. Since then, the Cubs have played them in San Francisco in a four-game series 23 times.

The number of times a Cubs team has swept a Giants team on the road in those 23 tries is zero. So the 2009 Cubs has a chance to do something that's never been done before by a Cubs team -- sweep the Giants in a four-game set in San Francisco. The Cubs did sweep the Giants in a four-game series at Wrigley Field in 1963. The final game of that series, on June 6, was memorable. Reliever Lindy McDaniel came into a tie game in the 10th inning with the bases loaded. He picked Willie Mays off second base, struck out Ed Bailey, then hit a walkoff homer leading off the bottom of the 10th. That is the only time the Cubs have swept the Giants at all in a four-game series since they moved West in 1958.

There was an article the other day by Paul Sullivan speculating on whether the Giants would trade Aaron Rowand for Milton Bradley. Thought you would like to see a couple of FanShots from McCovey Chronicles with some thoughts from Giants fans on whether they'd do it or not. And, you can cross the Royals off the list of teams that might want Bradley, with pretty strong language quoted by Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star:

Royals officials dismiss — in strong terms — reports of possible interest in acquiring outfielder Milton Bradley from the Cubs. "Idiots" was one of the nicer comments directed at those offering such speculation.

Site note: tonight is Yom Kippur, so today's game recap will be delayed until tomorrow morning.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Matt Cain Giants

11-9	W-L	13-7
3.00	ERA	2.99
93	SO	158
43	BB	70
14	HR	22
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	11-9	25	25	0	0	0	0	153.0	152	62	51	14	43	93	3.00	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	13-7	31	31	4	0	0	0	204.2	175	71	68	22	70	158	2.99	1.20

Matt Cain last faced the Cubs on July 11, 2008 at Wrigley Field. He and Jason Marquis both threw seven shutout innings that day, but the Cubs won 3-1 when Aramis Ramirez hit a three-run homer off reliever Tyler Walker. In fact, Cain didn't give up a run to the 2008 NL scoring leaders in two starts last year. This year, Cain has overall good numbers, but has lost his last three starts, in which he has a 9.42 ERA. Derrek Lee, who we hope will be back in the lineup today, is 4-for-15 with a double and HR off Cain and Aramis Ramirez is 3-for-10.

Randy Wells talked Lou into giving him two more starts, so he'll go today and then Saturday at home vs. the Diamondbacks. Randy's walk rate is up a bit this month (10 in 26.1 innings) but he has still posted a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He has never faced the Giants and the only player on their team who he has faced -- Freddy Sanchez in his Pirates days -- is now out for the season.

Today's game will have good announcers again (Len & Bob) on WGN and also on CSN Bay Area (Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Giants site McCovey Chronicles.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 4:15 and 5:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

What a Relief: Phillies 4, Braves 2

dajafi — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Raul Ibanez doubled in what proved to be the winning run in the fourth inning of Sunday's rain-delayed win at Turner Field. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

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Three outs before the game would have been official with the Phillies leading 4-1 and ace Cliff Lee on the mound, the skies over Turner Field opened and washed baseball away for the better part of two hours. When play resumed, Lee was gone, and the Phillies' shaky bullpen was charged with recording fifteen outs before the host Braves, hanging in the NL playoff hunt by their fingernails, could score three runs.

Mission accomplished. Tyler Walker fired two innings of solid relief, stranding two in the sixth. Sergio Escalona and Clay Condrey combined to get through the seventh. Ryan Madson struck out the side in the eighth with some of his filthiest pitches of the year. And finally, Brad Lidge--not without the usual drama, as one run scored and the tying run came to the plate--finished it up, striking out Nate McClouth to end it. In fact, the five relievers recorded nine of their fifteen outs via the K.

Absent the rain, Lee might not have needed much help. After allowing a first-inning run, he held Atlanta off the board without difficulty, needing just 52 pitches to get through four innings. Meanwhile, the Phillies came back against Braves rookie Tommy Hanson, evening the score at 1 on a third-inning RBI double from Ben Francisco--in for Shane Victorino, who'd been ejected for arguing after getting thrown out trying to steal second in the first--and going ahead with two fourth-inning runs on RBI hits from Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz. Chase Utley added an RBI triple in the fifth shortly before play stopped.

The Phils now lead the Marlins, who lost earlier, by 8 games, and the Braves by 8.5. Their magic number to clinch a third straight NL East title is down to 6.

Lou Piniella, This One's On You: Bullpen Mismanagement Sends Cubs To 4-3 Loss

Al — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Eating your glove won't help, Kevin.

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Was Lou sleeping in the dugout during the eighth inning? Or for that matter, for the entire game?

Let's reconstruct Carlos Marmol's disastrous eighth inning, in which he wound up walking in a run which gave the Phillies a 3-2 lead. He walked the leadoff hitter, Carlos Ruiz, then got Greg Dobbs and Jimmy Rollins on fairly deep fly balls. By that time he had thrown 13 pitches, only seven of them strikes.

Why wasn't John Grabow warming up right then, considering that after Shane Victorino, THREE tough lefthanded hitters were to follow? Lou has yanked pitchers in the past, well before they needed to be in some cases, for the platoon advantage. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are three of the best LH hitters in the National League. But no one got up in the left-field bullpen.

Thus when Marmol hit Victorino (on a 1-2 pitch), no lefthander was ready to go.

Then when Marmol walked Utley, still no lefthander was ready to go.

So while Marmol was walking Howard to force in the tying run, only then did Grabow hurriedly get up and get ready. Too late, unfortunately; Grabow did come in after throwing only a handful of warmup pitches and struck out Ibanez, but the Phillies had the lead.

What if Grabow comes in to face Utley? Maybe he gets him and the game stays tied, and then Milton Bradley's clutch 9th-inning single wins it. It's possible, of course, that Brad Lidge isn't pitching in the 9th in a tie game, but maybe the Cubs win some other way. And incidentally, next time you complain about Kevin Gregg blowing saves, Lidge has seven of them this year, leading the major leagues and sports a ridiculous 7.36 ERA.

And at this point, Carlos Marmol can't be trusted in the eighth inning any more; he's got to be used only in low-leverage situations in blowouts. Give the eighth-inning job to Angel Guzman (who threw two solid innings last night).

I've got more, but there's too much to squeeze in here above the fold.

The Cubs lost to the Phillies in 12 innings 4-3, after Kevin Gregg gave up his MLB-leading (among relievers) 11th homer of the season. There's more Lou blame to lay: why was Aaron Miles in the game pinch-hitting for Guzman in the 10th inning? Miles came into the game 2-for-14 as a pinch-hitter. I'd have rather seen Koyie Hill up there. Or Aramis Ramirez -- seriously, if Ramirez isn't OK to pinch-hit in that situation, which called for him even though his shoulder is barking at him, he needs to go on the DL. It was laughable that Charlie Manuel felt he had to pull the right-handed Tyler Walker for Scott Eyre right there, because Manuel must have known Lou wouldn't call on Ramirez. Miles cooperated by swinging at Eyre's first pitch and grounding into a force play.

Can we take up a collection? I'd guess that by the end of this homestand, five more games, between the (approximately) 200,000 people who will come into Wrigley Field by Sunday, and everyone here at BCB, we could collect enough money to pay off the second year of Miles' contract, give the money to the Cubs, and then they could just release him. I'm not going to get into the "worst free-agent signing" debate about Miles, because clearly, the 25th man on the roster isn't going to make a difference in many games.

But he did last night, and the Cubs have to have five or six people in the minor league system who could play better just by accident. Andres Blanco is eligible to come off the disabled list next Wednesday (the 19th), and maybe then Jim Hendry can cut the cord on Miles.

All of this ruined an outstanding outing by Rich Harden, who retired the first sixteen batters he faced before walking Ruiz in the sixth, and then, one out later, giving up a no-doubt-about-it homer to Rollins that cut through the teeth of a pretty good wind blowing in. Here's another one on Lou: why wasn't Harden at least allowed to start the eighth inning? He did allow two more baserunners in the seventh, but had thrown only 87 pitches, and the bottom of the Phillies order was due up. Why not give Harden at least a chance to go eight?

It also spoiled another fine day from Milton Bradley, who had two hits, drove in the tying run in the ninth and gave the Cubs a shot at winning the game by stealing only his second base of the season when Derrek Lee struck out in that inning. If Jake Fox could have driven the ball just a bit farther past Victorino that inning, we'd be talking about a dramatic Cubs victory. Bradley also made three fine catches in right field, as Jack Brickhouse might have described them: "plucking the balls off the tops of tall blades of grass out there!" Bradley seems energized since moving to the #2 spot in the lineup -- keep up the good work, Milton.

The night also featured, for the second day in a row, an umpire-reviewed replay of an apparent home run, by Carlos Ruiz in the top of the ninth. Third base umpire Dale Scott signaled home run on a ball that was at least ten feet on the foul side of the left-field foul pole -- the fan who caught it was in section 101, clearly on the foul side of the line. The umpires, reviewing a HR call for the first time in Wrigley Field history, went through the Cubs dugout to watch replay, came back and correctly ruled it foul. Ruiz then grounded out.

Non-baseball incident of interest: about an hour before game time, a couple of men were arrested for allegedly selling counterfeit tickets outside the bleachers near the corner of Waveland and Kenmore. This arrest took no fewer than nine police cars and a police scooter, and a third man was talking to the police -- apparently, one of the men arrested had the third man's cellphone. This got the third man carted away, also.

Fortunately for the Cubs, all of the teams they are chasing in the division and wild-card races -- the Cardinals, Giants and Rockies -- also lost games at home last night (can someone explain to me how the Pirates can beat the Rockies in Denver, but the Cubs can't?). Thus, the Cubs lost no ground to any of them, and still trail by only three games in both races. There's still plenty of time to catch up.

But they had better start now, and the manager had better get his head on straight again.

Rockies close out road trip by visiting World Series champs

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:53:47 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Other than Tim Lincecum, this was the only guy to give up less HR/9 than Ubaldo Jimenez last year. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner makes his debut at Citizens Bank Park Thursday.

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Of their last eight series, the Rockies have faced just one team above .500 (the Giants) and zero teams that one would consider had an above average offense. It's time for a litmus test. I'm sure Philly and their unphailing aphinity for pH will be suitable.

Philadelphia took 2 of 3 from the Rockies in April, but none of the Phillies' starting pitchers from that series will face Colorado this time around. Naturally, much has changed for these teams since that series. That was back when Ryan Spilborghs was the primary CF and Jason Grilli was the 7th inning man. Perhaps more valid are recent games.

Philadelphia won 14 of 16 from July 8- and 18 of 21 from July 3-28 but have since hit a bump in the road. They have lost 4 of 5 (all against the NL West), their worst stretch in nearly six weeks. The only game they won in the last rotation cycle was by newly acquired Cliff Lee, as they dropped 3 of 4 to San Francisco at AT&T Park. But of course, they are blaming the ballpark since:

"Quite a few balls we hit were homers in Philly,'' - Jayson Werth

"If we play at our field, I think it will be different...you see where we hit the ball, those are definitely out of our ballpark." - Cole Hamels

No kidding. But you guys might not want to use Citizens Bank Park as your standard, even if it is your home park. Both teams hit in the same conditions. You just got beat, and you have to be able to win games on the road to be a legitimate playoff team. The Rockies split two games at AT&T Park earlier this year. The ascertation of blaming the park is a bit strange coming from the Phillies, whose 27-25 home record is worse than the Rockies' 31-26 mark on the road, while Philly is a league best 32-19 on the road.

As for head to head, the Rockies have won just 1 of their past 9 games against Philly, losing all four on the road in that stretch. One other interesting note for the series: all three starting pitchers for Philly are left-handed. Despite the fact that the Rockies' best lineup includes only three RH bats, Colorado is a cool 16-16 against LHP and actually sport a better situational OPS against lefties.

A series win actually yields at least a winning road trip at 6-4 (7-3 with a sweep), while scratching out one win in Pennsylvania will go down as a 5-5 road trip, not terrible given the east coast nature and debacle at Citi Field.

To see the Philly side of things, immerse yourself in the overuse of pH, which continues to maniphest in the Phillies' SBNation blog as well: The Good Phight.

Philadelphia Phillies (59-44, L2, 1st, 5 Gm lead)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park

The Bats: A-

Philly is dead average in batting average at .260, but make no mistake - their offense if vaunted and quite frankly belongs in the American League. They lead the NL in HR, SLG and wOBA (though are 3rd, 6th and 5th in those categories overall). Their 143 HR are far ahead of Colorado's 122, which is 2nd in the NL. Overall, the offense is incredibly strong, and facing them will be like a facing a Ubaldo heater after a month of BP off of Livan Hernandez. I've rated the last teams the Rockies have faced offensively as F, D+, F, D-, D, C-, C, D-. Five-eighths of their starting lineup was at the All-Star Game this year, and of the three who weren't, one was the 2007 MVP and another is a well-known Rockie-killer. The vaunted lineup:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jimmy Rollins - SS	.239	11	47	.290	.385	.299
Shane Victorino - CF	.315	8	48	.382	.470	.373
Chase Utley - 2B	.301	23	70	.420	.546	.424
Ryan Howard - 1B	.263	26	78	.347	.529	.375
Raul Ibanez - LF	.301	26	75	.366	.627	.417
Jayson Werth - RF	.270	22	66	.381	.503	.383
Pedro Feliz - 3B	.289	6	52	.337	.395	.322
Carlos Ruiz - C	.225	5	24	.325	.368	.304

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features two hitters performing at Superstar levels (Utley and Ibanez) , one performing at a strong All-Star caliber clip (Werth), two hitting well above average on the cusp of being a legit All-Star (Howard and Victorino), one below average hitter (Feliz), one well below average hitter (Ruiz) and one hitting very very poorly (Rollins). The 2007 MVP has a worse wOBA than several stud shortstops, like Luis Valbuena, Everth Cabrera, Willie Bloomquist, and Julio Lugo. Chase Utley is the Most Valuable Player in MLB by FG value.

Victorino has been relegated to pinch-hitting the last few games with a bruised knee but will return to the lineup, if not tonight, sometime in the series. He has been replaced by the only bench player younger than 31 - Ben Francisco (.253/.335/.425). Matt Stairs (.230, 4, 13) joins Francisco in the outfield reserves while Paul Bako (.167, 0, 4) is the backup catcher since Chris Coste was claimed off waivers by the Astros July 11. Eric Bruntlett (.133, 0, 6) and Greg Dobbs (.256, 5, 18) fill out the old, balanced and slow bench.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B-

The Phillies' staff ERA of 4.37 (19th) and ERA+ of 98 certainly aren't overwhelming. However, they have taken great strides in improving that. Their rotation ERA has improved to 4.60 (20th) with the addition of J.A. Happ yet stills sports a 4.69 FIP and 4.80 tRA. Adding Cliff Lee and subtracting Chan Ho Park or Rodrigo Lopez is a huge boost to that though. Their bullpen has been below average as well, posting a 3.94 ERA (13th), 4.48 FIP (22nd) and 4.74 tRA. By Fangraphs value, the pitching staff has been fifth worst in the majors. Again, this should be adjusted upwards, particularly for this series, given the addition of Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ's addition to the rotation in late May. In addition, Brad Lidge has been horrific as the Phillies closer, but in a small sample, we all know he can be far more dominating than your average pitcher with an ERA north of 7.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brad Lidge	0-4	7.11	1.79	41	24

Charlie Manual's lone lefty is Scott Eyre. Ryan Madson sets up for Brad Lidge, Tyler Walker is a middle reliever, while right handers Kyle Kendrick, Rodrigo Lopez, and Chan Ho Park represent rotation outcasts in the pen. Walker, Park and Madson have been above average relievers, while the rest (sans Lopez who has yet to appear as a reliever) have been liabilities out of the pen.

The D: B

The Phillies are ranked 10th in UZR/150 while also making the 3rd-least errors which equates to Fangraphs' 10th best fielding value. Should you choose to believe Fangraphs, Philly has above average fielders at every position except CF, where Shane Victorino has been a strong liability (-8.8) almost to the point of being Brad Hawpe (-11.7).

The Ballpark: Slight hitter's park

Contrary to many popular advances, Citizens Bank Park isn't video game bandbox. It's 102/101 Baseball Reference park factor does ascertain its offensive tendencies, but they are far slighter than advertised. The park smothers inside-the-park hits while ballooning home run numbers. Its 116.4 HR/FB park factor is less than Coors Field's 121.6 however while being more on par with Chase Field's 115.3.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 5:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	5-6	4.66	1.50	71	25

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jamie Moyer	10-7	5.32	1.45	65	33

Hammel has never been a full-time starter. Perhaps fatigue or scouting reports are starting to catch up to him, as he has given up at least four runs in three of five starts, with the only two quality starts coming against the pansy offenses in San Diego and San Francisco. Jamie Moyer has won 6 of his last 7 starts, posting a 3.30 ERA in July despite pitching in very offensive minded parks. There were even reports he reached 83mph on his fastball once or twice. Hammel has been the better pitcher overall this year, but Moyer is going to force Jim Tracy to use a lot of the bench in terms of RH bats in the lineup. Favors: ROCKIES very slightly

Wednesday, August 5, 5:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	9-7	4.68	1.35	117	50

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - J.A. Happ	7-2	2.97	1.16	76	35

DLR is on some kind of run, winning a franchise record seven straight starts, winning part of a streak where he has won 9 of 10 decisions. His 5-0 July with a 2.50 ERA should put him in the conversation for NL Pitcher of the Month (no one else managed a 5-0 month). Statcorner rates him as a better starting pitcher this year than any Phillie hurler, including Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ, who is enjoying a fantastic year, with the help of some better than average BABIP and strand rates. He throws a fastball around 90mph almost three quarters of the time, which is rated by Fangraphs as the 12th best fastball in MLB. He as also apparently scrapped his slider in exchange for a cutter and throws a change and curve. This is another competitive pitching matchup, though the Phillies' superior offense and home field offer a boost. Favors: PHILLIES slightly

Thursday, August 6, 11:05 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-3	3.88	1.41	73	41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Cliff Lee	8-9	3.02	1.27	113	35

Lee threw a complete game four-hitter, allowing just one run in his Phillies debut, though it was in San Francisco. He has been death on lefties, of which the Rockies' best hitters are, though Colorado has hit better off lefties than righties for the season. In his lasat four starts, Lee is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA, striking out 20 and walking jsut 2 in 36 IP. It's going to be a tough matchup, even though the Rockies turn to their "ace." Aaron Cook hasn't lost since "the streak" started in early June, winning his past seven decisions, even with an inconsistent sinker. He is giving up more HR than any other full season in his career. If Cook is on, the aggressive Phillies might find themselves trotting to first and back to the dugout frequently. If he's not, this will be a difficult game to win. Favors: PHILLIES strongly

My take

The Rockies can take this series over the struggling Phillies, but it would be difficullt to go through Cliff Lee. The traditional home field advantage is out the window, given that the Rockies are better on the road than Philly is at home this year. The addition of Franklin Morales and Joe Beimel to the bullpen make the Rockies far more suitable to face Charlie Manual's big lefty or switch bats (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez) late in the game, especially since all five hit in consecutive order. On top of that, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs are their top two PHers, and both swings from the left side. The Rockies actually have a bullpen advantage, so if the Rockies' three starters each turn in a quality start, they have a chance, though winning just one game should not be seen as a failure.

Jimmy Rollins has a nine game hitting streak and is hitting over .315 since July 1. Cliff Lee is pitching dominantly (see above), while Ibanez, Howard and Victorino have 10 HR between them, each around a .900 OPS since the ASB. Scott Eyre has appeared in 32 games this year. He allowed a solo homer July 29 - before that, the last time he allowed an earned run was April 27, the only other appearance he allowed a run (he allowed four).

Matt Stairs has just one hit in 20 ABs. Philly catchers are just 10 for their past 63, and Pedro Feliz has just one XBH in his 66 post-ASB ABs. Brad Lidge just posted a 5.91 ERA in July, his best month of the year. Tyler Walker and Ryan Madson also posted July ERAs over 5.00.

Shane Victorino is listed as probably for tonight's game with a bruised knee but will be starting at some point in the series, if not tonight. Brett Myers did the rotation a favor by going on the 60-day DL May 28 with a hip injury, which in part opened the door for Happ to hold onto a rotation slot. Five pitchers are on the 15 day DL, including Clay Condrey (oblique - 7/23), J.C. Romero (forearm - 7/20), Chad Durbin (7/23), Pedro Martinez (shoulder - 7/15), and Antonio Bastardo (shoulder - 6/26)

Poll

How will you feel at the end of the road trip

Phantastic! - a sweep in Philly gives us a 7-3 road trip after losing the first 3. Phenomenal!

19 votes

Very happy - Winning 6 of 10 on the road, especially when three are against Philly, is more than acceptable.

78 votes

Good/Neutral. Wish we could have done more damage, but after getting one in Philly, 5-5 on a road swing isn't so bad.

39 votes

Disappointed. Getting swept means a losing road trip and questions of illegitimacy. 4-6 isn't bad on the road, but when facing the Mets and Reds, it IS, at least for a team hoping to contend.

3 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Pinierowned: Cardinals 8, Phillies 1

WholeCamels — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 03:46:05 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Joel Piniero, and his rotten G.G. Allin mustache, held the Phillies scoreless for six innings. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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And so it was, that the mighty Phillies offense was held to a single run... resulting from a wild pitch.

Both starting pitchers -- J.A. Happ and Joel Piniero -- were terrific in the early going, until the 6th inning, when Happ gave up four runs on a series of bloops, dunks, and a couple line drives, suffering his first loss of the season. The bullpen didn't help matters, with Tyler Walker surrendering two runs in his inning of work, and Andrew Carpenter surrendering a solo home run to the second newest Cardinal, Julio Lugo.

Joel Piniero was his usual (2009) self, inducing 12 grounders and striking out three in his six innings of work. And brand new Cardinal Matt Holliday had four hits. Strangely, Albert Pujols was held to one hit in five at bats, one of the weird bloopers in the 6th inning.

A very ugly night for the Phillies, and a disappointing potential farewell from Happ, who may be headed north in a deal for Roy Halladay in the next few days.

Get 'em tomorrow.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:01:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Jeff Karstens is stopped by umpire Chad Fairchild, right, and Jason Kendall from getting to Chris Smith after being hit by a pitch in the eighth inning on Monday. No players were ejected, and the Pirates won 8-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Some things to read while changing your misleading name.

Thanks to Tristarscoop for picking up the slack while I was away yesterday. Between getting married, honeymooning, buying a house, moving, being in another wedding and now a funeral, I feel like I've been away more than I've been home in the last two months, but (knock on wood) I should be back for the long haul now...at least through the end of the week.

Did you skip out early on last night's game? I almost went to bed in the seventh inning and would have missed the bench clearing incident involving Chris Smith and Jeff Karstens. Smith hit Karstens with a pitch in the eighth inning but later said the pitch wasn't intentional, which is probably the same thing Karstens said after hitting Ryan Braun in April. This HBP had some increased historical significance, being the 600th plunking at PNC Park.

Because the mess happened so late last night, possibly after many Brewer bloggers had gone to bed, there wasn't a lot of reaction to it on the web this morning. Don't be surprised, though, if Jason Kendall picks up a suspension of a game or two for his actions in the shoving match that followed. Kendall shoved Jeff Karstens down the first base line and was later involved in a shouting match with Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

The incident also overshadowed the Brewer debut of Felipe Lopez. Lopez missed an early flight because he was waiting for his bats and would not have been in the starting lineup if not for the rain delay, but went 4-for-4 with a triple and a walk, becoming the first Brewer to record four hits in their debut since Chuckie Carr in 1996. TheJay sent me that link, and also this note:

By the by, it took Jody Gerut only 20 games (5 starts) over six weeks to reach four hits.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic discussed the D-Backs' reasons for trading Lopez. He (Lopez, not Piecoro) stands a good chance of being a Type B free agent this offseason, but had also been vocal about enjoying playing in Arizona. The D-Backs would have had to offer him arbitration to receive any compensation if he left, but weren't willing to pay him the $5-6 million he would have received if he accepted the offer. They also seem to think Roque Mercedes is similar in value to the compensation pick they could have received.

Manny Parra has allowed just 12 baserunners in 13 innings since returning from AAA and lowered his ERA from 7.52 to 6.37 in the process. Has he figured it out? Zach Sanders of Baseball Digest Daily seems to think so.

In the minors:

Cody Adams, the Brewers' second round pick from 2008, has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for amphetamines. (Also noted in FanShot) Adams wasn't pitching well for the Timber Rattlers in the first place, but will now be set even farther back.
While the struggle to draw fans to games in Huntsville has drawn some negative attention this season, the Nashville Sounds are just happy the attention isn't on them. Despite making some improvements to Greer Stadium, the Sounds' attendance is down from last season, and ranks 15th in the 16-team PCL.
2009 draftee Josh Prince is the Prospect of the Week over at Between the Green Pillars. Battlekow interviewed Prince back on June 23.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers lost 15-1 to Lansing last night but still lead by two games in the Midwest League West Division Second Half Standings.
The Cub Reporter has a nice interview with Nashville hitting coach Sandy Guerrero, perhaps better known for being Prince Fielder's BP pitcher at the Home Run Derby.

Ever thought about attending a Brewer Fantasy Camp? Bill Schroeder has the sales pitch for you.

On rankings:

FanGraphs ranked Ryan Braun #8 in their Trade Value rankings, one spot ahead of Tim Lincecum. I love Braun, but if the Giants called and offered Lincecum I'd have a hard time turning it down.
The Brewers dropped four spots to 18th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.

Around the majors:

Angels: Released reliever Rudy Seanez, who had been pitching in AAA. (h/t Diamond Notes)
A's: Placed Jason Giambi on the DL with a strained quad.
Mets: Placed starter Fernando Nieve on the DL with a leg injury.
Nationals: Placed Scott Olsen on the DL with a back injury and designated Julian Tavarez for assignment.
Orioles: Acquired reliever Cla Meredith from the Padres for infielder Oscar Salazar.
Padres: Placed catcher Edgar Gonzalez, who was hit in the head by a pitch over the weekend, on the DL.
Phillies: Designated reliever Tyler Walker for assignment.
Rangers: Placed Frank Francisco on the DL with a mild case of pneumonia.
Red Sox: Designated Julio Lugo for assignment.
Reds: Placed Ramon Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his knee.
Tigers: Placed Joel Zumaya on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Twins: Signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal.

Last week I mentioned that I had participated in SBNation's NL Central Roundtable, and linked to part 1 of the conversation. Part 2 is up over at Viva El Birdos. It was written prior to the Lopez acquisition, but there's still some relevant stuff in there.

Happy birthday today to former Brewers Lance Painter (42), Geoff Jenkins (35) and CC Sabathia (29).

Oh, and I already knew Amy K. Nelson was a baseball writer, but discovering that she's also an old school video gamer made her infinitely cooler in my book.

Drink up.

Phillies vs. Pirates: July 10-12

Matt Swartz — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:00:55 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

The high-riding Phillies will finish up their homestand this week against the Pirates before the All-Star break. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (45-38) look to continue their winning home stand against the Pirates (38-47) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park before all but four of them will take a nice relaxing All-Star Break. Just a week ago, the Phillies were only two games over .500 and only barely in first in the NL East. Now, they have swept the rival Mets and taken three of four from the Reds, and they come into this series with a two-game lead over the Marlins who refuse to be as bad as sabermetricians tell them they are, a solid five game lead over the Braves, and a lead over the Mets that has grown from one game to five and a half in just a week. The Pirates were still hanging around a couple weeks ago, but have lost eight of eleven and are now in last place and are a full eight games out of first in the NL Central.

The Pirates are in a slow rebuilding process. Neil Huntington took the helm at GM just a year and a half ago and is transforming the Pirates into a younger better team. Huntington is what they call a "new school" GM, and has utilized sabermetrics in trying to rebuild the Pirates. While they have shown some signs of improvement, they are still not quite a good baseball team yet. They have a lot of young talent, and should become more dangerous in the next few years.

Their lineup is pretty right-handed but they do have a solid stream of hitters that they did not have a couple years ago. Each of the first six hitters has a decent chance of hitting a mistake out of the park, but none of them are perennial power hitters. The seventh hitter for the Pirates is our old friend, Jason Jaramillo, who the Phillies traded for Ronnie Paulino who they subsequently shipped to the Giants for Jack Taschner who they designated for assignment a couple days ago. The Pirates' bench is pretty weak, and there is not really anyone to be afraid of coming off the bench.

The Pirates' bullpen has been in flux throughout the year, constantly making me update my Pirates file on my computer for series previews. They do not have any lights out relievers at this point, though they do have a few guys who can get you out. The only lefty in the pen is John Grabow, who is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher (though he occassionally throws his slider) and as a result does not have a deep platoon split. This should give the Phillies the opportunity to set up the lefties in their lineup the way that they would like without worrying about vulnerabilities to a late inning LOOGY.

Why does that matter? Because Raul Ibanez is back. He spent three weeks on the disabled list with a strained groin after cooling off from a red hot start. Reports are that he will be in the lineup tonight after doubling in his presumably final rehab start in the minors. Everyone should remember that we are getting Raul Ibanez back, and not necessarily the recincarnated Babe Ruth we had hitting in his uniform earlier this year. But he is still a very talented hitter that should make both the Phillies bench and lineup stronger in coming back.

Friday night's matchup will be Joe Blanton against Zach Duke. Blanton has baffled me this year by posting strikeout numbers that far exceeded his career averages without throwing any more swinging strikes, any more called strikes, or adding any new pitches to his repertoire. He just suddenly seemed to improve...unless you look at his ERA which has been terrible without the peripherals to justify a decline at all. Blanton shut down the Mets for seven and a third strong innings on Sunday to complete the sweep and lowered his ERA by a solid amount. Zach Duke is the only left handed starter the Phillies will face this weekend. He does have better numbers against lefties than righties, but not an extreme split that would be concerning. He was projected to have an ERA near 5 this year, but has managed a very solid 3.28 ERA. This ERA is pretty surprising considering he has the same low strikeout and walk numbers that he's always had, and has induced even fewer groundballs than before. His BABIP is .273, which is a little bit on the lucky side, but enough to drop someone's ERA nearly two full runs? That could explain maybe half a run or a run, but not the rest. The reason is primarily that he has pitched far better with runners on base than with bases empty. The end result is that he is putting guys on base and stranding them. His opponents' OPS is nearly .100 points lower with runners on, and with multiple runners on, it's even lower than that. This is something Kyle Kendrick showed us is not a persistent skill. In fact, Duke will probably regress a lot and end up with an ERA over 4 this year, in my opinion.

On Saturday night, the Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound. Hamels had a lot of hype surrounding him going into this season, and the impression has been that he was not living up to it. That idea is belied by the fact that Hamels has been striking out more batters, walking fewer, and generating as many groundballs as last year. He has even generated the same number of infield flies. The only real difference is that he has seen a huge jump in his line drive singles and doubles and a huge decline in his outfield flyballs. That is not the kind of thing that just happens without changing back soon later-- it's not a persistent skill to generate 300 foot flyballs or avoid line drives. Specifically, his BABIP is .353. I proposed a theory a couple months ago that the lack of BABIP persistence for pitchers was not entirely based on BABIP being a matter of luck, but on hitters and pitchers adjusting to each other. I pointed out that if a hitter knew that an outside fastball was coming on every pitch, they would learn to just hit singles the opposite way and the pitcher would have a higher BABIP than .300. The thing is that pitcers just don't do that. They mix their pitches, akin to a mixed a strategy in game theory, and the result is that hitters try to guess right. When they do, they can make contact. If hitters can guess what's coming better, the pitcher will have a BABIP above .300 and the pitcher will adjust by the time any correlation would have showed up. The example that I like to give is that Kirk Gibson hit his famous homerun off Dennis Eckersley only because a scout told him that Eck always threw backdoor sliders to left handed power hitters on full counts. Gibson sat on it, made history. Guessing right leads to hitting the ball harder and any pitching coach worth his salt will notice this and make his pitchers adjust. Now, looking at Hamels BABIPs with one strike, I realized that they were very high and I wonder if Hamels hasn't been predictable regarding pitch selection on those pitches. Sure enough, after I formed this hypothesis, Hamels shut down the Reds allowing just three hits on 21 balls in play, and no hits on six balls in play with one strike. Hamels was able to get the second strike effectively against the Reds. Here's hoping he has adjusted.

The Pirates will counter with Ross Ohlendorf on Saturday evening. The right-hander has beaten projections of a mid-5's ERA with a 4.63 ERA thus far this year. This is despite the fact that he has struck out fewer batters than expected by a solid margin without improving in his walk or groundball rates. Ohlendorf has allowed fewer hits on balls in play to make up this difference. Ohlendorf performs far bettter against righties than lefties, and the Phillies will probably stack the lineup with lefties to try to score runs off him.

On Sunday, the Phillies will send J.A. Happ to the mound against Virgil Vasquez. Happ has been solid this year, though has been the beneficiary of good fortune himself. Vasquez was only called up to the majors a few starts ago by the Pirates after exhibiting excellent control in the minors.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Zach Duke (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Virgil Vasquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

PIRATES

LINE UP

1) CF Andrew McCutchen (R): .291/.346/.440

projection average (proj): .265/.330/.380
projected BB/PA (bb): 9%
projected K/AB (k): 19%
career gb% (gb): 47%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15% (2 of first 13 popups)
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 21% in first 19 groundballs in majors
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .305
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient hitter without a great eye, above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .955 vs .722 ops in minors; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb in minors
home/away (h/a): not enough info
pull/opposite (p/o): not enough info
anything else (other): none

2) 2B Freddy Sanchez (R): .316/.355/.477

proj: .290/.325/.410
bb: 5%
k: 11%
gb: 42%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315, which is exactly where i have him
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and poor eye
r/l: .718 vs .896 ops; 2.8 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .775 vs .749 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3) RF Delwyn Young (S): .315/.388/.403

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 18%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: poor eye, not very patient, below average contact
r/l: .761 vs .775 ops; 2.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .823 vs .717 ops; 2.6 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

4) 1B Adam LaRoche (L): .259/.345/.464

proj: .270/.340/.480
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 7%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .310; i have him at .301
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, average contact
r/l: .852 vs .752 ops; 1.9 vs 3.6 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .800 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Garrett Jones (L): .290/.333/.613

proj: .255/.310/.425
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41% in minors
iff: 17% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a great eye, so-so patience, below average contact
r/l: .814 vs .690 ops in minor league career; 2.0 vs 5.2 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like a pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Andy LaRoche (R): .269/.346/.487

proj: .245/.330/.400
bb: 11%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: average eye, average patient, average contact
r/l: .661 vs .562 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .661 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

7) C Jason Jaramillo (S): .255/.327/.389

proj: .250/.310/.360
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 18%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, decent contact
r/l: .681 vs .747 ops in minors; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) SS Jack Wilson (R): .270/.304/.403

proj: .270/.320/.375
bb: 6%
k: 11%
gb: 44%
iff: 14%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: pretty good eye, pretty patient, good contact
r/l: .667 vs .753 ops; 2.7 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .659 ops; 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Robinson Diaz (R): .295/.314/.375

proj: .275/.310/.380
bb: 3%
k: 9%
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 12% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: bad eye, not patient, good contact
r/l: .711 vs .731 ops in minors; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Ramon Vazquez (L): .243/.351/.279

proj: .250/.330/.370
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 5%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .728 vs .500 ops; 1.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .677 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Brandon Moss (L): .253/.305/.369

proj: .265/.325/.430
bb: 9%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .330
s/c/z: decent eye but not patient, average contact
r/l: .708 vs .691 ops; 3.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .792 vs .620 ops; 2.2 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: somewhat extreme pull hitter
other: none

IF/OF Steve Pearce (R): .083/.214/.167 in 14 PA; .277/.363/.476 in 268 PA in AAa

proj: .270/.330/.450
bb: 7%
k: 19%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, below average contact
r/l: .634 vs .884 ops; 2.8 vs 5.0 k/bb (151 vs 55 PA)
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Jeff Salazar (L): 0 for 3 in majors; .265/.325/.415 in 317 PA in AAA

proj: .250/.340/.380
bb: 11%
k: 20%
gb: 35%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, so-so contact
r/l: .727 vs .591 ops; only 22 PA vs LHP though
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Zach Duke (L): 3.28 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb, 7% sl, 0.1% ct
r/l: .811 vs .733 ops; 1.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .812 ops; 2.2 vs 1.7 k/bb

Duke vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Ross Ohlendorf (R): 4.63 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 66% fb, 20% sl, 14% ch, 0.5% cb
r/l: .691 vs .945 ops; 2.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .861 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Ohlendorf vs Phillies:

Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Virgil Vasquez (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.61 FIP, 44% GB in majors (18 IP), in 79.2 IP in AAA: 4.18 ERA, 1.1 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 40% in majors
pitches: 56% fb, 21% sl, 13% cb, 10% ch, 0.5% ct
r/l: pretty even in minors; hit a little harder by lefties in minors but similar k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Vazquez: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Paul Maholm (L): 4.60 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 54% fb, 14% sl, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: .801 vs .558 ops; 1.6 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .699 vs .818 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Maholm vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/14, 1 BB, 5 K
Rollins: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Charlie Morton (R): 4.29 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.3 BB?9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 65% fb, 16% ch, 11% cb, 8% sl
r/l: .715 vs .925 ops; 1.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .887 vs .720 ops; 1.2 vs 1.1 k/bb

Morton vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL: Matt Capps (R): 4.71 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 76% fb, 16% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .657 vs .702 ops; 5.4 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .652 vs .705 ops; 4.0 vs 4.2 k/bb

Capps vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Chavez (R): 3.22 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.29 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 17% sl, 0.3% sf, 0.1% ct
r/l: .896 vs .547 ops; 2.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .570 vs .930 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb

Chavez: has not faced any Phillies

John Grabow (L): 3.49 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 49% fb, 37% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .750 vs .720 ops; 1.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: .718 vs .763 ops; 2.1 vs 2.0 k/bb

Grabow vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Evan Meek (R): 2.76 ERA, 6.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERRA< 4.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ch, 12% ct, 11% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .903 vs 658 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .982 ops; 0.8 vs 0.5 k/bb

Meek vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1 BB

Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/9, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Steven Jackson (R): 3.44 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 55% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% sf, 17% sl, 6% ch
r/l: better against RHB in minors noticeably
h/a: not enough info

Jackson: has not played any Phillies

Jeff Karstens (R): 4.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 56% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch, 13% cb
r/l: .849 vs .785 ops; 1.6 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .776 ops; 1.2 vs 1.2 k/bb

Karstens vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

SENT TO AAA: Ian Snell (R): 5.36 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.56 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% sl, 14% cb, 10% ch
r/l: .745 vs .880 ops; 2.9 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .813 ops; 1.8 vs 1.9 k/bb

Snell vs Phillies:

Rollins: 12/19, 1 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/13, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, 1 Sf
Utley: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 2/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .227/.281/.351

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.463

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .307/.427/.578

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.332/.522

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .268/.373/.522

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.339/.407

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .239/.340/.374

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.342/.382

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .274/.319/.472

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .271/.427/.458

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .200/.273/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF John Mayberry (R): .200/.250/.511

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Pirates:

Hinske: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 10/14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Vazquez: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.70 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 2/3, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.04 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Pirates

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERa, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.17 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Pirates:

Hinske: 10/34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Monroe: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Adam LaRoche: 2/8, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Sanchez: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wilson: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Vazquez: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.89 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Pirates:

Wilson: 4/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Sanchez: 1/8, 2 BB, 5 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/4, 0 BB, 1 K
HInske: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Monroe: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.09 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.39 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 3/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.09 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.12 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Pirates:

Hinske: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Wilson: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.98 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Pirates:

Wilson: 2/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Sanchez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hinske: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Morgan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 2.92 ERA, 8.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 6.05 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Pirates:

Hinske: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 3/5, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 1.80 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Pirates:

Ad. LaRoche: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
An. LaRoche: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Young: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Pirates:

LaRoche: 0/10, 1 BB, 4 K
Sanchez: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Morgan: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hinske: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Pirates:

Sanchez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Wilson: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaROche: 1 BB
Andy LaRoche: 1 BB
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Blue Jays: June 26-28

Matt Swartz — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 03:28:59 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Series already underway, and this picture typifies the Phillies' mood. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

Browse more photos »

I didn't get a chance to post this on time, thanks in part to BP Idol's "Deadline Week", but I did do all the work and this should be a good reference point for Saturday and Sunday afternoons' games.

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:07-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Romero (L)

Saturday, 1:07-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Mills (L)

Sunday, 1:07-- Jamie Moyre (L) vs. Brian Tallet (L)

After the split, I preview all the players, their splits, and the matchups

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .294/.393/.432

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .306/.346/.497

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .267/.322/.432

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .255/.310/.404

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .307/.386/.550

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .329/.304/.477

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .279/.400/.525

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .263/.300/.423

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .257/.391/.354

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .263/.263/.368

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .217/.217/.217

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .246/.318/.388

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Russ Adams (L): .333/.385/.333

proj: .240/.305/.370
bb: 8%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .275
s/c/z: patient with good eye, good contact. sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .723 vs .521 ops; 1.4 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .748 vs .631 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.59 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.55 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K

Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Mills (L): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 4gb/14bip

proj avg: 5.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 29% so far
pitches: 41% fb, 33% ch, 26% cb
r/l: better vs RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Mills vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Brian Tallet (L): 4.36 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Brett Cecil (L): 5.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.43 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 53% so far
pitches: 63% fb, 21% sl, 12% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.064 vs .765 ops; 1.9 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Cecil: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Scott Richmond (R): 3.68 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABED LIST: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

Jason Frasor (R): 2.10 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.71 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.14 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 5.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.94 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 4.09 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 65% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 1.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.84 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 1 BB

Mayberry: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Jeremy Accardo (R): 3 IP,1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2gb/6bip

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 15% sf. 6% ct
r/l: .741 vs .552 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .639 ops; 2.6 vs 2.1 k/bb

Accardo vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WErth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.366/.456

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.430/.555

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .254/.329/.551

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .257/.344/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .289/.332/.398

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

7) LF John Mayberry (R): .320/.346/.760

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.359/.391

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .242/.337/.396

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .145/.234/.218

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .233/.288/.425

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Millar: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Scutaro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Barajas: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Hill: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rios: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.57 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 14/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 14/32, 1 2B, 3 HR, BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 10/22, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 8/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 3/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 8/25, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Adams: 3/14, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K

Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 4/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2 BB
Lind: 1 BB

McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Overbay: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Scutaro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1 BB

Overbay: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/13, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.22 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 8/20, 3 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Adams:1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.72 ERA, 10.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.68 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.46 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rolen: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Adams: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Barajas: 1/1,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1/3,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF