SB Nation - Ian Kennedy

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

Rox Girl — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:10:17 -0000

So let's take a look back at how the NL ended the 2009 season:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	95	67	.586	0	Lost 3
Colorado	92	70	.567	3	Lost 2
San Francisco	88	74	.543	7	Won 1
San Diego	75	87	.462	20	Lost 1
Arizona	70	92	.432	25	Won 1

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:02 AM EST)

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	93	69	.574	0	Lost 1
Florida	87	75	.537	6	Lost 1
Atlanta	86	76	.530	7	Lost 6
New York	70	92	.432	23	Won 3
Washington	59	103	.364	34	Won 7

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

So that's your basic straight up standings, if you want to go into more advanced detail (and you probably should) about how these teams stacked up on talent and skill without the luck you can look at Beyond the Boxscore or Baseball Prospectus or something, but straight W's and L's will serve as a solid start for where I'm going with this today.

So let's separate the teams into some talent groups, this time going by what we know of the teams' personnel at the end of last season rather than the standings:

Contender A Class (90+ wins)

Philadelphia
Los Angeles

Contender B Class (86-90 wins)

St. Louis
Colorado
Atlanta
Chicago

.500-ish teams (81-85 wins)

Arizona
San Francisco
Florida
Milwaukee
New York

I realize that the D-backs and Mets didn't finish anywhere close to .500 in 2009 and that the Giants and Marlins finished ahead of a couple of the teams in the group I have above them, but this is where taking out the luck, good or bad, comes in. In the cases of Florida and San Fran, they seemed to benefit from a large positive dose of divine favor in 2009 even as Arizona and New York were seemingly cursed from the get-go. Feel free to quibble with this placement in the comments, but the main point is that these are the 11 teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at making a playoff run in 2010.

So far in the off season, we've seen Los Angeles give up Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and drop into that second group with the Rockies and Cardinals, while the Phillies have grabbed a couple of minor upgrades with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz and given themselves a little separation from the rest of the league. Right now, it does not appear as if the Dodgers will be able to gain nearly enough of those cast-off wins back to get back to the Phillies level.

In the second group, the Cardinals and Rockies are both taking risks in replacing free agent starters leaving after career seasons, the Cards with Brad Penny in place of Joel Pineiro, the Rockies with the return of Jeff Francis in place of Jason Marquis. Insurance policies for both teams seem to be primarily a cache of young near-ready pitching talent. Both teams have similar bench depth issues to work out as well, the Cardinals need to replace Mark DeRosa and Rick Ankiel, the Rockies, Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

The good news for the Rockies in relation to the Cardinals (should they have to compete with each other for the wild card next season) is that 1) Dan O'Dowd got rid of this "Holliday distraction" the Cardinals are going through which is keeping them from making other moves a couple of years ago, and 2) while both teams can probably expect some regression in their starting rotation performance in 2010, it's usually a safe bet to expect a smaller step back from the team with the younger players, in this case, Colorado.

The Cubs are hoping that losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction, but the team's core seems to be declining as a group fairly rapidly, and actually looking at their ages, with their best hitting talent between the ages of 32-34 next season, I really suspect that they might be dropping into that .500 group without a major rebuild that doesn't involve Carlos Silva. The Braves, meanwhile, looked like they might have a decent team heading into 2010, but their replacement of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner is a downgrade for next year, as is yesterday's deal of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Signing Troy Glaus would be useful, but I still think the overall impact of Atlanta's moves is to add a lot more downside risk to the team in 2010 without a substantial upside improvement.

Of the .500-ish teams, so far, most haven't made any moves that really put them into the next category. The Mets appear to be likely adding Jason Bay, which would be a decent start at that. Arizona got a little better for next year or two in acquiring Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, but they still seem to be in a 82-85 win range which I think basically just catches them up to the Giants, who have as of yet done nothing. Florida gets a little better by aging a year, but not good enough, and their bullpen has been weakened. San Francisco is putting a lot of eggs into the Madison Bumgarner basket, either he or a second tier free agent like Jon Garland will have to replace the production that Randy Johnson and Brad Penny provided last season. That's a lot to ask given that the rest of their rotation, much like the Rockies, probably isn't going to be quite as good as it was in 2009.

Milwaukee's moves, such trading for Carlos Gomez and signing Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins have been mostly beneath the radar, but I really like what they've done so far. I still think they need more, but at least they're systematically going after the team's weaknesses on a budget without taking the kind of gambles that Atlanta is, or St. Louis did with the Penny acquisition.

So summarizing, the Rockies, who are gaining ground just by maturing into a peak phase, thus far have caught up with the Dodgers, and probably passed them talent-wise, just by sitting on their hands. Arizona's moved up a little and are within range of passing us if things fall their way in 2010, as are the Giants, but to put it in perspective, the gap between the Rockies and both those teams talent wise is probably still larger than it is between the Rockies and the Phillies the other direction.

As for the second playoff option, so far the news has been mostly positive as well, as none of the primary competitors outside the NL West with the possible exception of the Brewers have added enough talent to either make up for the players they've lost, or to otherwise catch up with Colorado. The last couple of seasons the Rockies have had similarly quiet winters, as Dan O'Dowd seems to prefer to wait until mid-season to add salary via trade if the team's in contention rather than going all in for the top free agents. Thus far this off season, I haven't seen any NL team besides the Phillies make moves that should push the Rockies to pursue a less budget conscious course.

The New AZ Kids Arrive, D-backs Rumor Central (and not the Prospect Report)

Jim McLennan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Ian Kennedy, right, and Edwin Jackson are introduced as new Arizona Diamondbacks baseball players during a news conference yesterday in Phoenix.

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No prospect report today, as finals and other pressures on time have left Zephon and IHSB short on a chance to get the scheduled installment quite completed in time. That'll therefore be held over until next week, and instead gives me a chance to throw up some random links and other stuff of potential interest. However, I'm pretty much phoning this one in though, since I got my HDMI cables, and so have been happily plugging them into anything within reach. The dogs have learned to stay away.

Let's start with the conference pictured above, where new Arizona starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy were introduced to the press at Chase Field yesterday. The pair spoke about their pitching arsenal and what they need to do to be successful. For Jackson, "It's big for me to come out throwing strikes early, set the tone early with the fastball. That way I can mix my offspeed into the equation to keep them off balance and help put them away." Kennedy's approach was a little different: "I have to throw a lot of strikes... I'm still going to throw a lot of fastballs even at 90, and I'm incorporating my two-seamer a lot more and try to keep you off balance mainly."

With both starters coming from the American League, they're going to have to get used to taking their hacks at the plate. Jackson - originally drafted as an outfielder - seemed to be looking forward to that a good deal more, saying "They've kind of thrown that on me that I had better be able to hit. It's a lot of fun being able to help yourself out." Contrast Kennedy's reaction: "I haven't gotten an at-bat since high school, so it's going to be a little challenging for me." Jackson has had only ten major-league at-bats since leaving Los Angeles in 2005, but in 2004 went 8-for-21 with three home-runs for Triple-A Las Vegas. Kennedy is right: he has yet to go to the plate in pro ball, so I wouldn't be expecting too much there.

Josh Byrnes made it clear that keeping a solid rotation was an important priority. Said Byrnes, "It's been a strength of ours. We've been among the leaders in major league baseball in innings and ERA from our rotation for several years running, so with Brandon Webb returning to health and the excellence of Dan Haren, we felt like we needed to keep paying attention to it." Byrnes feels that Webb's performance will be key. "If we're going to be good enough to win 90 games and make the playoffs like we did a couple of years ago, probably a few things are going to have to happen in 2010 that didn't happen in 2009. The first item is probably Brandon Webb returning to be an effective starting pitcher. I don't think there's any scenario where it doesn't go well for him and we're able to overcome that." Fox Sports Arizona also has interviews with both Jackson and Kennedy.

Over the weekend, Ken Kendrick discussed the 2010 budget for the team, which is currently sitting around the $70 million mark, depending on exactly what happens with regard to the arbitration-eligible players. The estimated salary available is around the mid-70's, but Kendrick said, "The number is not a hard number. There's not $10 million more. But $2 million to $3 million above our baseline to do something that we really find attractive? We could probably do that." There's still no certainty where the remaining budget might go: Nick Piecoro reports we asked about Jose Valverde, but his demands were too high. Kelly Johnson seems to be the main focus of attention: reliever Matt Capps is another possibility, but with half the teams in the majors interested, seems less likely.

Steve Gilbert mentions that outfielder Randy Winn "definitely is a guy on the Arizona radar," which seems somewhat perplexing to me. Sure, Winn can play all three outfield positions, but it seems difficult to work out how he could be fitted on to the roster while Eric Byrnes remains with the team. Certainly, Winn will not be expecting to get paid anything like the $9.6 million he earned from the Giants last year, and he has monster numbers at Chase, but one does wonder what exactly he would bring to the team. Gilbert says, "One of the pieces the D-backs were looking for this offseason was a veteran player, who could provide some leadership in the clubhouse."

What, is Tony Clark not available? Oops. Did I say that out loud? The reason for such cynicism is that of late, "veteran presence" has become a synonym in Arizona for "geriatric suck". In the past four seasons, the Diamondbacks has given 50+ at-bats to eight position players aged 34 or older: the mean OPS+ produced by these veterans is only 80.6. Admittedly, four of those were from Tony Clark, who has likely done more to damage the reputation of senior citizens in the state, than anyone not named Joe Arpaio. As a fan, it's far preferable to have a young player failing, since there's always the hope they'll improve down the road. In their mid-30s...not so much.

Random link dump paragraph. In the absence of a prospect report, here an independent evaluation of the Diamondbacks' prospects. Be interested to see what our resident gurus think of the rankings - such as the evaluation of Pedro Ciriaco as only a grade C prospect. Meanwhile, over at Bleacher Report, Joel Reuter posted his list of the top ten players in D-backs franchise history: plenty of food for thought there [does Eric Byrnes really merit an honorable mention?]. And to follow up on the Yanks/salary cap piece, Andrew Marks has a new project relating the Yanks to Veruca Salt: GoldenCC.com

I was sorry to hear of the demise of the MVN network of blogs, which was home to the worthy Baby Backs: The Next Generation and Out in the Desert Arizona sites. I've removed them off the side-bar: let's have a moment of silence as the herd of Diamondbacks sites is thinned. Oh, and finally, if you want to get in early on those personalized jerseys Steve Gilbert tweets the following numbers for the new arrivals on the team: Jackson #36, Heilman #48, Abreu #13, Kennedy #31.

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

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Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

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Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

Red Reposter - Winter Meetings Day 3 potpourri

ken — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

Who is Gossip GM? I'll never tell!
via i2.cdn.turner.com

The Winter Meetings in Indy end tomorrow with the Rule V draft. Here's a recap the deals and other news that broke yesterday, much of which was disussed in yesterday's open thread:

- Walt Jocketty had some discussions with the Rangers about "a hitter, shortstop depth and pitching depth." but nothing sounds close. Walt and Jonny Gomes' agent are "still a ways apart." Shortstop is still an area of interest, but it's no surprise that Jocketty thinks Miguel Tejada or Orlando Cabrera are poor fits for the Reds' "pay structure" (this rumor was floated by Jim Bowden). And rest easy, RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - the Reds have not reached out to Jamey Carroll (his agent, Cincinnati-based Jonathan Maurer, confirmed).

- And speaking of Bowden, Washington signed Pudge Rodriguezto a two-year deal. The final piece! Bowden is of course no longer the Nationals' GM, making this one of the first winter meetings he hasn't attended as a GM in some time. Which means no sartorial controversies and no arm-wrestling contests gone awry.

- The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks had an old-fashioned three-way that saw Curtis Granderson go to to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson head to Arizona. There are some promising young players in the deal as well - Arizona trades Max Scherzer to Detroit, and New York sends Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Detroit and Arizona, respectively. New York is definitely capitalizing on its ability to absorb salary (from a team looking to shed it) to add a very solid up-the-middle player near his peak. Dave Cameron gives an "A+" to NYY.

- Brad Penny signed a one-year, $7.5M deal with St. Louis. He's a big guy without a great health track record, but when you already have two Cy Young candidates and another decent starter, gambling on the upside of a hard-thrower like Penny isn't a bad idea. Meanwhile, St. Louis continues to talk with Scott Boras about Matt Holliday, who is still presumably recovering from that ball striking his groin.

- Peter Gammons is jumping from ESPN to MLB Network. In my first job out of college there was a girl in my training class with the last name Gammons who had Mass. plates on her car. I asked her if she was related to Peter Gammons; she answered she was not. Somehow the relationship failed to blossom from there.

- What would you guess Albert Pujols makes in endorsements? Derek Jeter?

Arizona Makes Awful Move in Granderson Blockbuster

Satchel Price — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:45:57 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

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Within the massive seven player deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees, the Diamondbacks dealt starter Max Scherzer and top relief prospect Daniel Schlereth to the Tigers in order to acquire right-handers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.

While you would presume that the Diamondbacks were simply making a win-now move, it's pretty questionable whether the team actually make any legitimate improvements for next season. While Jackson should provide Arizona with a solid mid-rotation starter and Kennedy gives them another back of the rotation option along with Kevin Mulvey, Billy Buckner and Bryan Augenstein, giving up their two best young arms capable of contributing in 2010 in order to add them.

While Jackson is under control for two years and Kennedy is under control for six years, Scherzer has five years of team control left and Schlereth still has all six as well. What makes the deal so puzzling is that one could legitimately argue that Scherzer will be the better pitcher not only long term, but in 2010 as well. Jackson posted a decent 4.39 xFIP and 4.28 FIP in 2009, Scherzer bested those numbers with respective marks of 3.87 and 3.88, while posting significantly better contact rates.

I'm still trying to understand how the Diamondbacks improved going forward thanks to this deal. The pitching staff is older with Jackson and Kennedy, it's likely not any better and could very well be worse if Scherzer takes the next step (which he's capable of), and it's not any cheaper, Jackson is by far the most expensive piece among the four pitchers.

Certainly, the Yankees made a brilliant move by landing a star center fielder without giving up any potential stars, all three prospects project more as solid everyday players than legitimate impact players, and the Tigers did manage to land some nice pieces in Scherzer, Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke. But I'm still trying to figure out what Arizona got out of this deal.

Yankees Acquire Curtis Granderson In 3-Way Trade With Tigers & Diamondbacks

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

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It's a Yankee world and we're just living in it. After making one of the only moves on day one of the winter meetings, the Yankees were at in again this time involving the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks in what looks like the signature move of this year's meetings.

As the story goes, the Yankees receive Curtis Granderson, the Tigers will receive Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke and Austin Jackson, and the Diamondbacks get Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and a whole lot of second guessing from fans and writers like myself.

For the Yankees, it's pretty easy to like this deal. Sure, Granderson has his flaws (average-below average defense past two seasons, platoon like split), but even with those flaws he is a safe bet for a 3.5-4 WAR season for each of the remaining four years on his contract.

The contract itself is pretty nifty. For the 29-year-old Granderson, the Yankees will probably pay in the neighborhood of $38 million (estimating some incentives) for the four years. A quick and easy estimate puts his expected value around $70 million for those years. They could even buyout the final year of the deal making the contract something like three years, $27 million.

Basically, the Yanks get a younger, cheaper, better alternative to Johnny Damon for two arms and a player with the upside to one day be Granderson-lite. Despite his lefty on lefty split, Granderson, and his pull hitting tendency, should enjoy the short porch and wind tunnel in his new home park as well as a few more all-star appearances.

The Tigers are giving up the biggest piece in the deal in Granderson, and downgrade a bit in the interim, but gain four cheap and controllable pieces that should help for seasons to come. Detroit has made no secret about wanting to shed payroll, and clearing the at least $25.75 million guaranteed to Granderson helps towards accomplishing that goal. They also save on Edwin Jackson's impending ERA inflated arbitration raise. They receive Max Scherzer as the big prize in their return. Not only can he fill Jackson's spot in the rotation immediately, but stands a decent upgrade it for much less.

The Tigers could also immediately turn to soon-to-be 23-year-old, Austin Jackson to fill Granderson's spot in the field. There will no doubt be a significant dip in production overall, but Jackson stands to be average in centerfield and brings speed to the lineup. As is the case with most young players, he strikeouts a lot and hasn't mastered the art of walks, but for the league minimum he could provide a nice value in Granderson's absense.

The other two pieces, Schlereth and Coke will help sure up a Tigers pen than stands to lose Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney to free agency. Both pitchers are lefties, and neither regarded as a future relief ace, but both stand to be average at least and more importantly cheap and controllable. Coke's future looks more LOOGY than fellow south paw, Schlereth. Mark's son has at least shown the ability to get righties out in the minor leagues; Once again, cheap, decent and immediate alternatives to more expensive options.

From the Diamondbacks stand point, it's hard to see the good in this trade. Edwin Jackson to this day remains more potential than production even with an all-star appearance to his credit. Ian Kennedy spent most of 2009 on the shelf, but has failed in his chances with the Yankees. Both still have potential and maybe a move to the NL West(or back to the NL West for Jackson) will cure what ails them, but it's hard to make the argument that either one is better than Scherzer is right now and will be going forward.

Curtis Granderson To The Yankees Might Mean A Lot For The Red Sox

Randy Booth — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:50:08 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

16 days ago: FILE - In this June 11, 2009 photo, Detroit Tigers' Curtis Granderson watches his two-run home run off Chicago White Sox closer Bobby Jenks during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Chicago. A person familiar with the negotiations says the Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks are nearing agreement on a three-team trade that would send Granderson from Detroit to New York. The Yankees would trade right-hander Ian Kennedy to Arizona, and lefty reliever Phil Coke and outfield prospect Austin Jackson to Detroit, the person said on condition of anonymity because the trade was not yet final. Detroit would deal pitcher Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks, and Arizona would send pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to the Tigers. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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I used to like you, Curtis Granderson. Now I don't know how I feel. You're a Yankee, dude. A Yankee:

Curtis Granderson is the Yankees’ new center fielder, coming over from the Detroit Tigers in a three-way deal that also included the Arizona Diamondbacks. The deal, which is pending approval of medical records, will send outfielder Austin Jackson and reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and starter Ian Kennedy to Arizona.

The Diamondbacks will also receive starter Edwin Jackson from the Tigers, who will also get starter Max Scherzer and reliever Daniel Schlereth from Arizona.

The acquisition of Granderson, who turns 29 in March, gives the Yankees a younger alternative to Johnny Damon, 36, who is a free agent. The Yankees have no interest in giving Damon a three-year deal, but they were comfortable with a three-year commitment to Granderson, who is owed $25.75 million through 2012.

No doubt, Granderson is a really good player. He's going to give the Yankees another good bat and a pretty good outfield glove, too.

But the bigger question is: what do the Red Sox do now? In my opinion, nothing has to happen.

Will Carrol, aka The Injury Freaking King, tweets the following question:

Do red sox have to answer the granderson deal? Some are saying yes and quick and big.

Theo Epstein doesn't play the game of "let's make a move because the Yankees made a move." He's over that. He's past that. Theo Epstein builds the Boston Red Sox team to how he sees is the best fit. He builds them for 95 wins or more to get into the playoffs. He's not going to spend a lot of money or give up a lot of talented prospects just because the Yankees have made a move. Essentially, he's bigger than the rivalry.

With that said, WEEI has a few ideas for what the Sox could do to counter the Yanks' move (WEEI also mentions the Sox contacted the Tigers about Granderson, but soon found out they didn't have a solid match):

The effort to deal Granderson (and Edwin Jackson) offers fairly compelling evidence that the Tigers are indeed in a cost-cutting phase. That being the case, it is natural to wonder whether the team might make Miguel Cabrera available.

To date, according to a major-league source, there is no evidence that the Tigers are dangling the hitter extraordinaire (Cabrera hit .324 with a .396 OPS and .942 OPS, all among the best marks in the American League last year). Moreover, given Detroit’s interest in receiving major-league ready pieces — and, especially, position players — the possibility of a deal that might send Cabrera to the Red Sox seems far-fetched at this point (and that is without considering the concerns about the first baseman’s weight and off-field indiscretions).

Of course, there remains the possibility that economic realities at some point might force the Tigers to deal a player who has six years and $126 million remaining on his contract. But for now, there hasn’t been evidence that Detroit is looking to move the four-time All-Star.

I used to be a big fan of the Cabrera to Boston idea. Then all that "off-field indescretions" stuff popped up and he became tainted. No doubt he is an amazing baseball player. He's naturally gifted and has potential to go down as one of the best ever. But what kind of baggage does he bring to the team? Maybe Theo & Co. think they could whip him into shape -- mentally and physically -- ala Bill Belichick. I'm all for it if that's their gameplan.

Cabrera's bat in the middle of the Sox's lineup would be amazing. Part of me thinks it would be reminiscent of Manny Ramirez's days in Boston. Unfortunately, that means both the good and bad of having Manny in Boston.

As nice as it sounds, just because Granderson is in New York doesn't mean Cabrera has to be in Boston.

But I'm not 100 percent against it, either.

Poll

With the Yankees' acquisition of Curtis Granderson, do the Red Sox need to counter with a big signing or trade?

Yes

445 votes

No

301 votes

Maybe/depends

143 votes

889 votes | Poll has closed

New York Yankees Acquire Curtis Granderson; Detroit Tigers Acquire Max Scherzer; Arizona Diamondbacks Acquire Brain Damage

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:11:56 -0000

I don't want to bemoan the point too much, but this deal makes no sense for Arizona. Like, Josh Byrnes can tell everyone that King Zafuriack of the Hyereteian Empire forced him into it and even that would be more logical than the trade itself. Take a look at their part of this trade:

Going out: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth

Coming in: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Schlereth is a reliever. He's a former first round pick who struggles with walks but has bat-missing ability. Kennedy is a former "top" prospect. He throws a fastball in the low-90s and profiles as aback-end starter. Maybe more if everything breaks correctly.

Jackson is coming off the best season of his career. He posted a 4.39 xFIP (his previous three years were 5.03, 4.95, and 5.20 ... yeah.) but he only has two years of team control remaining and the pretty standard statistics will drive his arbitration costs up. Now, he's going to be in the NL West, which means a lower level of competition than say, the AL East, that should help with his numbers a little, but he's not a front of the line starter, and he's not better than Scherzer. No way, no how.

Scherzer is younger and has something like five cost controlled seasons left. His career xFIP is 3.71 and most people agree he's got room to improve. Potentially Arizona knows something the rest of us don't about his health habits or personal life, but even then, with that asymmetric knowledge you have to get something better than these cats named after dead presidents. But maybe I'm being too hard, maybe getting older, worse, and more expensive is totally undervalued on today's trade market.

This deal makes no sense for them. Detroit's side, I can understand. They need money and youth. They got money and youth. Good for them. New York, I get it. Granderson is something like a 3.5-4.5 win player most likely. Depends on what you think of his defense. He has a skill set that should age well, and while I'm thrilled Austin Jackson is gone, this definitely makes the Yankees better for the 2010 season.

The Deal is Almost Done

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:55:14 -0000

The three-way trade between the Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and New York Yankees appears to be just about done. The pieces have been agreed to by each team. All that's left, according to several reports, is for medical records for the players involved to be reviewed. When discussions get to that point, it's almost a formality.

So here's how the trade shakes down, from most accounts:

The Tigers get centerfielder Austin Jackson and reliever Phil Coke from the Yankees, along with pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth from the D-Backs.
The Diamondbacks receive Edwin Jackson from Detroit and pitcher Ian Kennedy from the Yankees.
The Yankees get Curtis Granderson.

However, the deal isn't yet official. In fact, there's some disagreement as to whether Schlereth is part of the deal. ESPN.com's report doesn't have Schlereth going to Detroit. But all other reports (for example, this one) seem to indicate that he's included. That's not an insignificant point.

More to come, once the deal becomes cross the t's, dot the i's official. But for now, it looks like this thing is about done.