SB Nation - Mike Lowell

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' Adrian Gonzalez follows the flight of his single to drive in two runs against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of the Rockies' 11-10 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Boston Red Sox also made news on Monday signing starting pitcher John Lackey to a reported 5 year $85 million deal, and signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year $15 million deal. It appears that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is placing more and more value into defensive metrics illustrated by his signing of Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron. Epstein appears to have washed his hands of Jason Bay and his big bat/no glove in left field.

Epstein is also close to dealing third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers for catcher Max Ramirez. Lowell has been injury prone over the last two years, and Epstein is looking to sign Adrian Beltre to play 3B, or is he?

Now that the Sox have signed John Lackey, they have an extra starting pitcher that new Padres GM Ned Hoyer covets in Clay Bucholz. Could the Sox be entertaining the idea of del Bucholz now that they have signed Lackey? A package of Bucholz, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland and 1-2 more prospects would surely entice Hoyer who knows the Sox system inside and out. And Gonzalez's bat and glove would be an ideal fit for Epstein's new approach to building a ballclub.

Poll

Will Padres GM Ned Hoyer finally cave and deal Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox?

What Kind of Day Has it Been?

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:25:39 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, left, walks with pitcher Clay Buchholz in the outfield of Fenway Park in Boston, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Buchholz is scheduled to start when the Red Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of the American League division baseball series on Sunday. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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I woke up today at 4 in the morning. No good reason why other than that I'd uncharacteristically fallen asleep at 8 PM last night, but I had some time to kill before my 11 AM class. It was Monday, which meant it was time for me to get the Minor League update together. I did that on-off for a while, along with other random internet browsing, and eventually got it posted around 9 AM.

Looking around, I found out that the Mike Lowell trade had even more hitches, as his right thumb could require surgery. The status of the trade--and of 3rd base in 2010--seemed murkier than ever before. After signing Marco Scutaro on the 4th, the Red Sox had been remarkably quiet. Half the world seemed to think they were after Bay, the other half that they'd given up and moved on to Holliday, but there was nothing at all concrete. Anyways, I threw it up on the front page and went to class after mucking about for an hour.

At this point, the day had all the makings of a slow news day. Nothing was "in the works" that seemed likely to go down soon. In fact, it seemed like we might go quite a while before seeing any movement on any front.

And then came the storm.

It started when I noticed Randy had posted that John Lackey had taken a physical for the Red Sox. The next two hours were filled with speculation: had Lackey signed? Was this a ruse? A ploy? If he signed, for how much, and was that good?

At 3:30, I was back from class, and Randy had confirmation enough to put it on the front page. John Lackey, the #1 pitching free agent of the 2009-2010 offseason, had signed with the Boston Red Sox. The deal? 5 years, 85 million. The reaction? Mixed.

Knowing that Lackey had signed, though, had done nothing but fuel speculation. The Red Sox had 6 starters (all of whom seem set to start out of Spring Training), a hole at 3rd, and one very marketable young starter in Clay Buchholz. Was this a sign of things to come?

So far, we've seen nothing on that end. But that doesn't mean the Sox stopped there. No, within 2 hours, the Sox were in "serious talks" with center fielder Mike Cameron. 3 hours later, they had reached an agreement for 2 years and 15 million dollars.

In less than 12 hours, the Red Sox had made their mark on the postseason. They had set their outfield for the season, with a significant defensive improvement hopefully balancing out the loss of Jason Bay's bat. Whether Ellsbury will move to left or Cameron will take over there remains to be seen, but either way they've changed their defensive look for the better. More importantly, they bolstered their rotation to the point where it's a strong contender for the best in the MLB. The cherry on the top? Lackey was a potential candidate to fill holes for American League rival Yankees and Angels. The Yankees will now have to try and either make due with Joba and Hughes at #4 and #5--both of whom are significant question marks--and the Angels are in dire trouble with few solutions in sight.

Of course, nothing comes without consequences. The Red Sox are now spending at nearly Yankee levels. They've lost, in effect, a 2nd round pick by signing Lackey. The Blue Jays will now get that pick while the first rounder goes to the Angels. The Sox are still, ironically, without an answer to the question that started the day off, as 3rd base remains conspicuously vacant. Who knows whether the Sox can still afford signing Adrian Beltre? And is our offense good enough without any power bats on the left side of the field? And who on Earth is going to come out of the mess of humanity that is the Red Sox' bullpen? There's plenty still left to do.

Oh, yeah, and Roy Halladay went to the NL while Cliff Lee hits Seattle. The Jays? They got some of the young, cheap talent they needed all along, but it's going to be a long year for them.

So, Red Sox Nation, Over the Monster readers:

What kind of day has it been?

No More Complaining About Payrolls for Red Sox Fans

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:28:27 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

about 1 month ago: Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein talks to reporters during Major League Baseball's 2009 General Managers Meetings, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 in Chicago. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

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It was always a comfortable, if perhaps not entirely respectable fallback to point at the Yankees' payroll. It was not the most valid of excuses--fans of small market teams would be and were entirely justified at laughing their heads off at the $120 million giant crying about cash. But the Yankees' $200 million was a clear outlier, heads and tails above the #2 team in the league.

Red Sox fans will have to give up that excuse in 2010, though. Sure, barring more signings, the Yankees will still be ahead of the Red Sox by a fair amount. But as it stands now, with the Yankees aiming at a reported $185 million figure and the Red Sox standing around $150 million--give or take a few million based on arbitration guesses--the Yankees are not in a league of their own anymore. While last year only the smallest market teams in the league could claim that the Sox had as much an advantage over them as the Yankees did over the Sox, this year it will likely be well over half the teams in the league.

The $150 million will not all be on the field for the Sox. $9 million comes from Julio Lugo, who was traded to the Cardinals last year on the condition that the Sox pay for him. Mike Lowell, though he's still with the team for now, could also well be in Texas within the week, still costing the Sox $9 million himself. Add in $1.5 million in buyouts, and that's nearly $20 million in bad contract money.

But what impact does this have on the average reader? Well, to start with, it's gonna be tough to expect any more signings this year. Matt Holliday is almost certainly out. Jason Bay will join him. Instead, if the organization is willing to go all out this year, expect at most mid-money, 1-year contracts. Say, Mike Cameron. Given the hole at 3B, and $3 million potentially coming off the books from a Lowell trade, even Adrian Beltre is not impossible. But if anyone was expecting a big push in the outfield department, think again.

Popular thinking has the Red Sox shipping Clay Buchholz and others off to the Padres in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, and while Adrian Gonzalez has a very team-friendly contract at the moment, that's bound to change within the next few years. I doubt the Sox would be willing to invest not only Clay Buchholz, but also Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez that does not also include an extension. Any extension would cost a great deal of money, even considering discounts given a guaranteed raise over the years remaining on his current contract. Even with a Lowell trade, Gonzalez would likely put the Sox at around $160 million even without a left fielder. The rumor of Mike Cameron would put that number closer to an incredible $170 million.

Also at issue is next year's payroll. Assuming a $170 million dollar payroll this year, the Red Sox will have a number of unpopular contracts coming off their books. But just how much spending money will that result in? First, both "bad contracts" come off the board for $20 million. Then there's David Ortiz' $13 million, Josh Beckett's $12 million, Jason Varitek's $3 million, and Victor Martinez' $7.7 million. After losing all that, the Sox will barely be under the $120 million they spent in 2009. And that's not even factoring in raises! Youkilis gets $3 million more. Daisuke is up $2 million, Lester adds $2 million, and Pedroia $2 million. Let's mercifully assume that the Red Sox' 7 players going to their next year in Arbitration adds only $10-15 million, and we're still left with Ellsbury and Buchholz starting their first arbitration years, and due for probably $8 million between them at least. A conservative estimate puts the Red Sox well over $140 million starting 2010's offseason, and that's without a catcher, DH, and one top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Forget about Joe Mauer, this team might not be willing to sign A.J. Pierzynski.

There are 2 directions the Sox front office could go with. Either this is an all-out gamble for the next few years, with money on the Sox' prospects coming through to fill in holes (Either Exposito, Wagner, or possibly Max Ramirez at catcher, maybe Lars at DH), or the Red Sox' ownership is committing to setting a new bar for payroll. If this isn't just a flash in the pan of spending, then it's official: we're rivaling the Yankees, and it's time to swallow our jeers and, quite frankly, show some shame. I, for one, have been calling for a salary cap and floor for years, and I will not stop doing so now just because we're now spending as much as our greatest enemies. But I will probably talk quieter, and I'll expect even more derision for it.

Either way, though, at least those $5 ticket hikes are going to the right places.

Innumerable thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for so many numbers in this piece. Fantastic site for anything contract related.

Thumb Surgery Might Put Mike Lowell Trade in Jeopardy

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:12:22 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox' Mike Lowell tosses his helmet after striking out with bases loaded to end the seventh inning against the New York Yankees in their baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston Friday, Aug. 21, 2009. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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It's been a few days since news broke of a deal between the Red Sox and Rangers for Mike Lowell. Over those days, the likelihood of said deal ever being completed has gradually diminished as the teams tried to sort out the medical issues plaguing the players involved.

Originally, for Lowell, it seemed like the third baseman's hip was going to be the issue, but instead it has been his right thumb which has been problematic. Today, Peter Gammons reported on Twitter that the thumb might require surgery, which would spell an end to the deal.

For the Red Sox, this would bring up a whole new set of questions. Will Lowell be ready for the start of the season? Should they look for a full-time replacement anyways? Adrian Beltre had been the presumed replacement for Lowell, but with Boras' current asking price high, and the potential for a logjam at third, the Red Sox would likely have to pass on any big-name players.

Sox fans might have to get ready for a few months of Kotchman-Youkilis manning the corners.

Mike Lowell to Rangers hits road bump

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:50:32 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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Peter Gammons is reporting that Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell may have to have surgery on his right thumb, putting the already prolonged trade talks on the table for an indefinite period of time.

Lowell, a .280 career hitter, hit .290 this past season, putting up strikingly similar numbers to his 2008 season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Lowell	119	445	54	129	29	1	17	75	33	61	2	1	.290	.337	.474

If Lowell needs surgery, one AL source said the Rangers will certainly contact Garrett Atkins to be their third baseman. Adding Milton Bradley remains an option, but it appears that teams are waiting it out until the Cubs are virtually ready to dump him.

This does put the Red Sox other offseason plans on hold, making it less likely that Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez will be moved before Opening Day 2010.

The Red Sox are expected to pursue free agent outfielder Matt Holliday, but if Mike Lowell is staying at third, than pursuing a veteran starting pitcher would be a way to fortify that already impressive pitching staff.

Monday morning Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:54:47 -0000

Not much out there this morning.

Jeff Wilson writes that the Rangers are still evaluating information on Mike Lowell's thumb, and thus the Lowell/Max Ramirez deal is still in limbo while that is going on.

That's about it.

Thinking about Mike Lowell and Ryan Garko

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:17:52 -0000

Ryan Garko was non-tendered by the Giants yesterday.

This was surprising to me, because the Giants sent a pretty decent prospect to the Indians for him in July.

Back in July, when the Rangers were desperate for a righty bat who could DH and play some first base, I thought Garko was the best target out there for Texas.

T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers were interested in him at the trade deadline last year, before he was dealt to San Fran, and suggests that he could be a target now.

Of course, if the Rangers had interest in him, it would be as a righty-hitting DH/1B option, and as we all know, Max Ramirez is supposedly heading to Boston so that we can pay Mike Lowell $3 million for the privilege of filling that role.

Garko has been about as productive as Lowell the past few years, doesn't come with the injury issues that Lowell does, will probably cost less on a one year deal than $3 million, and, of course, wouldn't cost the Rangers Max Ramirez. Garko also has a career .313/.392/.495 line against LHPs, and if you are looking for someone to fill a platoon role, that's pretty impressive.

Lowell, on the other hand, has a longer track record, can play third base, and has gotten praise from the Rangers for his leadership, experience, and role on a championship club.

Max Ramirez, coming off a lost season in 2009, has seen his value drop significantly...he's going to be out of options after the 2010 season, and I think the Rangers -- and most other clubs -- don't view him as a catcher on the major league level, other than as a very short-term or emergency option. And he doesn't really have another position, so he's either going to stick as a DH or he's a minor league lifer. How much value you think he has is going to depend on how likely you think he is to hit well enough to be a decent DH for at least a few years.

More telling to me, though, is the targeting of Lowell by the Rangers, and their willingness to apply a pretty big chunk of their very limited resources this offseason to acquiring him. Lowell isn't much of an offensive threat at this point...he's benefited from the Monster (he had a 932 OPS at home last year, 713 away, and 993/767 in 2007, although he was a little better on the road than at home in 2008), and while he's probably better than, say, Andruw Jones, he's not likely to be a good DH in 2009.

And yet, he's clearly someone the Rangers have zeroed in on, even with Garko and Jonny Gomes coming available at the non-tender deadline, and Vlad Guerrero and Fernando Tatis, among others, already on the free agent market.

Really, I struggle to understand what you get with Lowell that you can't get with Tatis, who is a free agent righty hitter who can play the four corners and who is likely going to cost less than $3 million per year, who appears to be a fair bet to be as productive with the bat as Lowell and who wouldn't take Max Ramirez out of your farm system.

There's a couple of possibilities. One is that the Rangers, having viewed the free agent landscape and determined that the utility infielder choices are scarce, have decided that Michael Young will back up Elvis Andrus this year. And since Elvis isn't going to start 162 games, they want someone who can give them 30 games a year at third base and acquit himself well there. That means that you could have Esteban German or Joe Inglett in a bench role, along with a backup catcher and David Murphy, and leave your 25th spot for someone like Craig Gentry or Brian Anderson or Jeremy Reed, a true backup centerfielder who can spell Julio Borbon when he needs a day off and who can pinch run late in a game. Presumably, you don't want Murphy or Nelson Cruz or Josh Hamilton to be your backup plan in center

The other possibility -- one that doesn't necessarily preclude the first one -- is that the Rangers feel leadership and championship experience is more of a need than offense, and Lowell is this year's Brian Jordan, the pretty much washed-up, broken down veteran who the team hopes to squeeze a productive season out of, but who is primarily here to provide intangibles to a young team.

I don't know Lowell, and can't say what he brings to the table in terms of the off-the-field intangibles. But I do know that an inability to score runs is what kept the Rangers out of the postseason in 2009, and I find it troubling that the team seems committed to go to the well once more with the well-worn veteran retread/bounceback candidate, after seeing Jordan, Brad Fullmer, Phil Nevin, Andruw Jones, Greg Colbrunn, Richard Hidalgo, and Sammy Sosa all provide mediocre at best performance when brought in under similar circumstances.

Sunday morning Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:31:37 -0000

Yesterday was the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. You can see the complete list of non-tendered players here.

Along with the guys we talked about already, some other interesting names include John Buck, who the Rangers supposedly have interest in and who has been the Royals' regular catcher the past few years; Jack Cust, the A's DH; and Neal Cotts, a hard-throwing lefty reliever whose control abandoned him last season.

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Max Ramirez/Mike Lowell deal is being held up over concerns about the health of Mike Lowell's thumb.

Evan Grant says that being aggressive in negotiations with Rich Harden, rather than waiting and seeing how the market shook out, resulted in the Rangers getting Harden away from teams with more money to spend.

Jon Paul Morosi writes that the A.L. West is the most "captivating" division in baseball right now, with three teams that will head to spring training with a realistic chance of winning the division.

Don't Overlook Holes In The Red Sox's Bullpen

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Who's going to help set this guy up in 2010?

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While people debate who should play left field for the Red Sox in 2010 (it's a heated discussion if you haven't jumped in on it yet), there are still other problems to be solved.

One is who will play third base if Mike Lowell is traded. Perhaps that is the biggest issue after the left field question mark, but No. 2 is important as well: who's going to be in the bullpen next season?

Sure, talking about bullpen arms isn't sexy like talking about power-hitting left fielders. But it's an important factor in the equation. After all, the effectiveness of the Red Sox's bullpen last season was one of the reasons they made it into the playoffs. The Red Sox's core six relievers -- Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito -- combined for a 3.07 earned run average in 363.1 innings.

Now, however, one of those relievers is gone (Saito), one proved very ineffective toward the end of the season (Delcarmen), one began to crumble underneath his workload (Ramirez) and Billy Wagner, who was a late-season acquisition, is calling Atlanta his new home.

With the Red Sox's current roster, here are the locks for the bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon, closer
Daniel Bard
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen

Let's say the Red Sox go with 12 pitchers on the roster, with seven of those coming in the bullpen. Right now the Sox are looking at two empty bullpen spots. Looking at internal options, who fills the spots?

Scott Atchison
A recent acquisition, Atchison provides more depth. And if the Sox have him on their Opening Day roster, he either a) blew the team away in spring training or b) there's plenty of injuries. The latter is more likely. So, if Atchison is in one of these two spots, we better hope it's because he's fantastic in the spring.

Boof Bonser
Bonser is the most likely candidate as he can both start and relieve. If Bonser is on the Red Sox's Opening Day roster, it will most likely be in a long reliever type role. If the Sox are getting blown out -- or better yet, blowing a team out -- Bonser can come out of the 'pen and pitch some good innings. It will also make for an easy transition if he needs to start any games.

Michael Bowden
Bowden is in an interesting stage right now. He's proven he can play in Triple-A. He's ready for something bigger and better than that, but he hasn't had much success at the Major League level. He also hasn't had a lot of time to prove himself, either. The Red Sox don't have a spot in the starting rotation for him, but he could fill a Bonser-like role if he wants to be a long reliever. The Red Sox could also try and convert him to a reliever if need be. Bowden wants to stick in the bigs; this may be the best way for him to do that.

Fernando Cabrera
Cabrera was quite dominate for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009. He struck out nearly one batter per inning while opponents hit just .208 against him. His WHIP was a nifty little 1.12 in 55.1 innings. His callup to Boston, though, didn't go as well. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings, but he did strike out eight batters. Small sample size doesn't sway in his favor, but the 28 year old still can offer the Sox a decent bullpen arm.

Fabio Castro
Castro is historically a starter, but could see bullpen action -- if the Red Sox get desperate. He doesn't struck out many batters, but he walks a lot. Oh, and he gives up a lot of hits, too. So basically, he's not going to do much for the Sox unless he can figure out those three problems first.

Ramon A. Ramirez
The other Ramon Ramirez. RamRam II has a great history against lefties -- a .218 batting average against in more than 270 innings -- but that might be the only thing he has going for him. He's a decent arm but like Atchison, shouldn't sniff the bullpen unless there are some serious issues already.

Dustin Richardson
Perhaps the sleeper of the group, Richardson made his name in 2009. After a rough 2008 season (he racked up a 6.33 ERA in 106.2 innings of work for Double-A Portland), Richardson came out and made easy work of his competition last season. He struck out 80 in 63.1 innings to start the year in Portland before a promotion to Pawtucket. He worked just 10.2 innings in Pawtucket, but he allowed just two runs and struck out 17. Between Portland and Pawtucket, he held batters to a .191 batting average against. He had a cup of coffee late in the season for the Red Sox (he gave up three hits and a walk in 3.1 innings). Perhaps the impressive 2009 will get Richardson a foot in the door come February.

The names aren't sexy, but they have arms that could potentially work within the Red Sox's bullpen. Of course, these are only internal options. We haven't looked at the external options yet, which don't give off many good vibes either.

What do you think? If you had to choose one of these internal options to be in the Red Sox's bullpen, who would you pick? Would you rather have an experienced pitcher like a Cabrera or Atchison, or a younger arm like Richardson? Should the Sox look in free agency rather than these internal options? Are there any trades you'd like to see the Sox make?

Poll

If you had to choose one internal option for the Red Sox's bullpen, who would it be?

Rosenthal: No Jason Bay? Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron Instead

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:14:22 -0000

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports writes that if the Red Sox are out on Jason Bay, they'll turn their focus to either Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron. His sources conflict a tad there:

Some rival executives insist free agent Matt Holliday is the Sox's preferred target. Other sources, however, say the Red Sox will shun Holliday in favor of building a more athletic, defensive-oriented club.

Adrian Beltre at third base. Mike Cameron in left field. And perhaps a starting pitcher to further enhance the Red Sox's quest for better run prevention.

[...]

Beltre would appear the logical replacement at third for Mike Lowell, whose trade to the Rangers could become official next week. Cameron, who turns 37 on Jan. 8, would sign a short-term deal, leaving the Red Sox flexible enough to pursue a left fielder in next year's free-agent class, Carl Crawford or even Jayson Werth.

Neither Beltre nor Cameron is Holliday — or, for that matter, Bay. Still, both hit for power, and their overall value to the Red Sox might be greater than Holliday's if one combines their offense, defense and base-running — along with their respective price tags.

Cameron works -- a whole lot better than Matt Holliday, in my opinion.

Cameron would be a perfect player for this "bridge" that Theo Epstein is building and escorting every Red Sox fan over. He's going to be 37 next season, which means the Sox wouldn't give him a contract for any more than two years. If a Ryan Kalish or a Josh Reddick (or even a Ryan Westmoreland if he quickly jumps up the system) is ready by then, it's a perfect transition. Or if Theo tries to sign Carl Crawford next season, it'll still be a good one-year stopgap.

Cameron is a great defender who shouldn't have too many troubles in left field. He also brings a power bat to the Sox's lineup; he's good for at least 25 home runs in Friendly Fenway full time.

The Sox could move Jacoby Ellsbury to left field and play Cameron in center field, but I'm not sure Terry Francona will want to do that to Ellsbury. Perhaps if Ellsbury's defense really is a problem midseason they would make a switch, but I'm not 100 percent sure Ellsbury would be moved if Cameron is signed.

If Bay is out, this is what I want as a Sox fan. Cameron, Ellsbury and J.D. Drew in the outfield would be fantastic (Cameron in center a little better than Ells, but still good). Offensively, Cameron won't hit 36 home runs like Bay, but he's not going to struggle either. Jeremy Hermida will be a solid corner outfield backup as well.

Sign Cameron. Trade Mike Lowell (officially). Sign Adrian Beltre. This is what I want if Bay really is no longer coming back.