SB Nation - Edinson Volquez

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster

Slyde — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:28:28 -0000

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

**Reds Current 40-man roster**
Bronson Arroyo Homer Bailey Bill Bray Jared Burton Francisco Cordero Johnny Cueto Carlos Fisher Aaron Harang Daniel Ray Herrera Sam LeCure Justin Lehr	Mike Lincoln Matt Maloney Nick Masset Micah Owings Ramon Ramirez Arthur Rhodes Daryl Thompson Pedro Viola Edinson Volquez Kip Wells# Wilkin Castillo **	Ryan Hanigan Ramon Hernandez # Corky Miller Craig Tatum Yonder Alonso Kevin Barker Juan Francisco Paul Janish Brandon Phillips Danny Richar ** Scott Rolen	Adam Rosales Drew Sutton Joey Votto Wladimir Balentien Jay Bruce Chris Dickerson Jonny Gomes Darnell McDonald Laynce Nix Drew Stubbs Willy Taveras

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

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Monday's Quick Hits: Cubs, Reds, Trevor Hoffman, and more Milton Bradley

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 21:26:54 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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Thought I compile some links for you guys to enjoy this Monday afternoon:

The city of Naples is reportedly making a strong push to bring the Cubs to Naples for Spring Training. The Cubs have played in Arizona since 1952, and they draw the biggest crowds every year. The Cubs' lease runs through 2016, but they can opt out in 2012 for 4.2 million dollars. The Cubs would benefit from a state of the art facility, but relocating would be incredibly expensive. They use the facility year round, with extended spring training and their rookie team operating it once the team leaves at the end of March.
Ted Keith of SI.com has a story on the best and worst free agent signings from the 2008-2009 offseason. If you guessed Milton Bradley as the worst signing, you were correct. Keith definitely did his homework, as usual, and it was a very interesting read. Let me know what you think of his rankings for the best signings.
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke with Reds GM Walk Jocketty who doesn't expect his team to be big players in the market this offseason. Jocketty expects to configure his team with in-house options. If young Reds players Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto can put up big numbers, they could probably put up a respectable season with some of the veterans locked up through 2010. The Reds would benefit from bringing in a shortstop, either through trade or free agency.
The Brewers' signing of Trevor Hoffman is one of the best signings from last offseason. Hoffman has a 1.88 ERA with 34 saves in 49 games this season, and is well respected in the clubhouse. Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he plans to talk with Hoffman about a contract before the exclusive negotiating rights window expires.
I've been thinking a lot today about potential fits for Milton Bradley. Bradley fit in well in Texas, but financial issues along with a crowded outfield will prevent that from happening. Bradley needs to go somewhere that is media-friendly, which means you can rule out New York, Boston, and Los Angeles. The Cubs would have to eat almost his entire salary, but they could contact Florida about a possible Milton Bradley-for-Jeremy Hermida swap. Hermida, who is arbitration eligible, has been somewhat of a disappointment in his early career. Throwing him in the right field mix against Jake Fox, Reed Johnson, and possibly Tyler Colvin could salvage some of the potential that once followed him.

We love you, Patrick! "Ditto." Reds win, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:07:51 -0000

via fullofsmoke.com

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Patrick Swayze. Finally, Heaven's Chippendales roster is complete. Also, Jay Bruce had the game winning hit in his return to Cincinnati.

Key Plays

There was a distinct lack of offense in this game. Both teams were scoreless until Houston broke through in the sixth inning. Then, with two outs, traditional Reds killers Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee singled and double respectively. Berkman scored and the Astros were winning 1-0.
The Reds staged their comeback in the seventh inning. Scott Rolen walked to lead off the frame, and Jonny Gomes hit a double to put runners on second and third. Juan Francisco then came up to bat for Darnell McDonald. El Nino Destructor's major league debut ended in a strikeout, but still, an exciting moment. Pinch hitter Kevin Barker was intentionally walked to load the bases, and then pinch hitter Jay Bruce - as foretold by jch - hit a single to right field that scored Rolen and Gomes. Reds on top, 2-1.
Brandon Phillips added a Great American Insurance run in the eighth inning with his 20th home run of the year.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Bronson Arroyo now has a winning record, joining Edinson Volquez and Justin Lehr as the only starters better than .500. Nick Masset is the only other pitcher on the roster with a winning record.
Francisco Cordero's 35th save beats his total from last year. It's been said again and again, but it's really impressive that So-So Cordero has not made any noteable appearances this season.
Once again, El Nino Destructor's major league debut everybody!
As Dude Rock and Slyde are quick to point out, Arroyo has a 2.11 ERA over his last 13 starts.
Patrick Swayze had an appearance on M*A*S*H* back in 1981. Weird, huh?

Final - 9.14.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	7	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	X	3	7	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (13 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (35) LP: Wandy Rodriguez (13 - 10)

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Injuries Have Taken a Big Bite Out of the Reds This Season

Slyde — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Willy Taveras has been listed as day-to-day three different times this season, but "luckily" he hasn't landed on the DL. Chris Dickerson has not been so lucky.

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I don't like to use injuries as an excuse. Every team faces some injuries every season and the fact is this team is bad. They'd be bad even if everybody had been healthy. Maybe they wouldn't be as bad, but they are not winning anything with their current roster construction. I imagine if the majority of the roster had stayed healthy, they'd probably be pushing .500 at best.

That's not to say that the injuries haven't been brutal. I'm not sure exactly how this compares to past seasons numerically, but the Reds have been battered by injuries all year long. By my estimate, they have lost 538 days on the big league roster for players listed as day-to-day or on the disabled list. This isn't a completely accurate representation though since Wilkin Castillo and Danny Richar were brought up just a few days before getting injured. It's hard to count their missing days as doing much harm to the roster. Still, 17 players from the Opening Day roster have missed a combined 441 days to injury. It's hard for any team to recover from such a string of injuries, not to mention one that wasn't particularly good to begin with.

Probably the worst outcome of these injuries though is that it has prevented the brass from truly evaluating the team to identify the holes on the roster. I fully expect to hear excuses in the off-season that Willy Taveras or Alex Gonzalez was never truly healthy, but with no mention of the fact that neither player has been particularly healthy over the last 3 seasons.

If anything, that is what these injuries have done to the season - created a crap excuse. Well that, and taken Edinson Volquez out of the 2010 equation. Stupid injuries.

Special thanks to Fantasy Pitch Fx's Injury Tool for making the data available and reasonably easy to compile. After the jump I have a complete list of days lost to injury for the Reds in 2009.

2009 Reds Days Lost to Injury
(DTD = Day to Day, DL = Disabled List)
Player	DTD	DL	Current
Ryan Hanigan	6	0
Joey Votto	10	24
Brandon Phillips	7	0
Alex Gonzalez	11	35
Edwin Encarnacion	0	66
Laynce Nix	3	0
Willy Taveras	12	0
Jay Bruce	0	30	+
Ramon Hernandez	0	23	+
Chris Dickerson	5	15	+
Scott Rolen	6	0	+
Danny Richar	0	39	+
Wilkin Castillo	0	52	+
Micah Owings	0	16	+
Bronson Arroyo	3	0
Johnny Cueto	1	0	+
Edinson Volquez	0	85	+
Mike Lincoln	0	59
Jared Burton	0	15
Nick Masset	0	15
TOTAL	64	474	9

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Wandylicious.

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First off, a tip of the cap to Wandy Rodriguez who was named NL Pitcher of the month for July. A 4-0 record with a microscopic .75 ERA.

Darin Erstad is on his way back! He's in AA now either working on some fake punt plays, or rehabbing for his return to the Astros..either one is possible.

Ex-Astro farmhand Cody Ransom isn't exactly tearing it up for the Bronx Bombers, and one Yankee fan has had enough. I dunno how someone can be so upset at someone who so little was expected of to begin with.

Hump Day got ya down? Take a look at this bit of comedy, courtesy of Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. If that doesn't make you chuckle, then look for the Will Farrell video where the baby curses at him.

Count Hank Aaron among those people who think that releasing the names of those players who tested positive for steroids in the now infamous 2003 test will help MLB.

Among the other notable injuries to ML players, Edinson Volquez' name sticks out for fans of NL Central clubs. The righty could be lost for all of 2010 in addition to the rest of the 2009 season.

Asst. GM for the San Diego Padres, Paul DePodesta, has his own blog. Yesterday he opined about some of the youngsters that the Padres are playing.

Speaking of those guys, they apparently nixed a blockbuster of a trade that involved Adrian Gonzalez and Felix Hernandez all changing addresses.

Baseball + brains = this.

Now I'm a fan of the 154 game season. At least it would be over quicker. Reds lose, 6-3.

Brendanukkah — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:41:45 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

"Hi ball! My name is Wladimir! I'm new here! Nice to meet you, ball! kbaithx!" (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Tom Gorzelanny. 7.1 innings of three hit, one run ball, with a walk and six strikeouts. He also went 1-3 with a walk and an RBI in his Cubs debut.

Key Plays

Kosuke Fukudome, the first batter of the game, hit a home run. If you didn't think the Reds were done for that point, you have more optimism than I.
Johnny Cueto actually shut down the Cubs after that, until the sixth inning. With one out, Aramis Ramirez doubled and Jake Fox was hit by a pitch. Alfonso Soriano singled and the bases were loaded. Cueto struck out Mike Fontenot, and there was a glimmer of hope that Cueto would escape unharmed. But Willy Taveras couldn't come up with a diving catch off the bat of Koyie Hill. The hit went for a double and scored Ramirez and Fox. The pitcher, Gorzelanny, singled next to drive in Soriano. Dusty brought in Danny Ray Herrera, who gave up a hit to Fukudome, and just like that the Cubs had tacked on four more runs.
Derrek Lee homered off of Nick Masset to begin the seventh inning to finish off the Cubs scoring.
Finally in the eighth inning, the Reds decided they should do something offensively, instead of just something offensive. Craig Tatum got hit by a pitch, and then Willy Taveras got his second hit of the game (!) to move Craiggers to second. Then Joey Votto, as he is wont to do, singled to drive in a run. God bless that man.
The "comeback" continued in the ninth inning, as Jonny Gomes got hit by a pitch, and then new Red Wladimir Balentien atoned for some of his suspect fielding with his first home run as a Red. 6-3, and with two outs, Tatum hit a double to tantalizingly prolong the rally. For the second night in a row, Willy Taveras found himself in the Javier Valentin Memorial Last Out of the Game position. And he did his predecessor proud with a ground ball to the second baseman. Reds lose 8 in a row.

Too lazy to post a win probability graph. Besides, the win was never probable.

Other Notes

This 8 game losing streak is the longest for the Reds since 2005. All 8 of these losses have come at home.
Cueto is 0-5 with a 9.85 ERA in his last six games.
You can blame it on the rain if you want, but there were only 17,992 in attendance, and most of those were Cubs fans.
With Cueto's loss, the Reds only have two starters that have a .500 record or better - Bronson Arroyo (10-10) and Edinson Volquez (4-2).

Final - 8.4.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Chicago Cubs	1	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6	9	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	0
WP: Tom Gorzelanny (4 - 1) LP: Johnny Cueto (8 - 9)

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I Am Outraged at _____ For Volquez's Tommy John Surgery

Slyde — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:18:37 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Damnit, Dusty | WBC | DWL | Jon & Kate, why did you have to ruin Volquez's season????

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Edinson Volquez had surgery on Monday to repair damage done to his elbow. It turns out that surgery ended up being of the Tommy John™ brand, with an additional repair done to a damaged flexor tendon. Volquez is expected to miss 12 months and likely won't be fully healthy until the start of the 2011 season.

Once again, we have proof that (please choose one) Dusty Baker | The World Baseball Classic | Dominican Winter League | Yo Gabba Gabba is bad for pitchers. It is outrageous that pitchers are expected to (please choose one) throw more than 110 pitches in a game | pitch all year long | wear their hat straight | date Dusty's daughter. Because of the careless acts of (please choose one) the organization | Major League Baseball | violent video games | President Obama, Volquez is now going to be lost to the Reds for basically the entire 2010 season. Hopefully this event will help everyone learn a lesson about (please choose one) old school insanity | rushing young pitchers | foreigners | leaving jch24 alone with your wife. It's ridiculous that this even had to happen!

Now you too can express your hatred for whatever pet subject you think caused Volquez's injury without putting much thought into it. Just pick your choice from each selection and cut and paste!

Here's the thing. I've read at least 5 different articles/theories from people, all espousing a different cause for Edinson Volquez's injury. The most common theories are that we should blame Dusty Baker, or the World Baseball Classic, or the Dominican Winter League. The problem is that, while all of those are factors, the answer is never so simple as to single out just one thing. Managing pitcher health is an art form more than a science. There has yet to be a clear cut theory as to how much work a pitcher can handle, and throwing one specific topic out there as the true cause of the injury is plain foolish. Nothing is learned about the process as a whole by placing the blame in just one spot.

Personally, I blame Volquez himself for the injury. He's the only common link through all of these things. And I am furious about it!!!!

Beat up a struggling, injured team - Take 2

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:37:00 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

The Reds are disappearing fast from playoff contention.

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After writing that the Rockies were better in the Mets in virtually every facet in KYF Monday, the Mets promptly outclassed Colorado, making the Rox look silly in a series loss that included a season-long scoreless innings streak. Does that mean the Mets were actually better? No. No it doesn't. I'd ramble on, but Rox Girl said it well last night:

What happened in New York wasn't the Rockies getting exposed. It wasn't even a terribly large slump. It was randomness.

So what does it mean when the results on the field don't match the tireless scouting you find here in KYF? I guess it means it's pointless - or at least sometimes it can be. Or maybe I should quote the immortal Dr. Cox:

Turns out, whatever you know about [baseball], ultimately, luck or fate or God or...who knows what is always gonna end up playing a much bigger role in the whole thing than you and I ever will.

I'm depressing myself by deflating my own power. Ugh. Anyway, let's get to scouting these Reds, because let's face it, my passion for baseball is indefatigable, even when the results don't make much sense.

Here we go. The Reds are bad. They are just 3-11 after the All-Star Break, have lost 15 of 19 and just lost three of four to the San Diego Padres. How does that make you feel Dusty?

"They're not a good club," said Baker of the 40-62 Padres. "And if they're not a good club and they're beating us like that, what does that make us? This is totally unacceptable." -Jeff Wallner, MLB.com

The Reds' run differential has fallen to -81, better than only three epicly bad teams: San Diego, Washington and Kansas City. They are one of four NL teams with a below .500 home record. They just added a 31-year old pitcher to the rotation who hasn't been in the majors in 3 years and an outfielder who can't hit a pitch that isn't straight. They have scored less runs than the almighty Giants. The Cincinnati Enquirer wonders if they've hit rock bottom. Dusty Baker is their manager. Yeah, they're bad. I'd hold back the punches for fear of jinxing them a la Mets, but refer to Per-Per's quote above.

Rox Girl's home town has been kinder to the Rockies than Russ' home town as well. Colorado won as many games in Cincinnati last year alone as in New York in the past seven seasons. The Rox have taken the last four series from the Reds, including going 5-1 at Great American Ballpark since 2007. We were swept in a four game set there in 2006, but hey, we'll forget that, yeah?

Oh, and not all baseball fans in Cincy are like Rox Girl. Compare at Red Reporter.

Cincinnati Reds (45-56, L3, 5th, 10.5 GB WC, 9.5 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Great American Ballpark

The Bats: F

Only the Padres, Mariners and Royals have scored less than Cincinnati this season. They are hitting .234 (29th), OBPing .244 (27th), SLGing .388 (27th) and have a team wOBA of .308 (28th). This is hands down the worst offense that doesn't play in the West. In fact, Fangraphs ranks only the Giants as having a lower valued offense. They have more legitimate threats with the bat than some teams, but you won't find two worse table-setters in the league. Joey Votto slugging nearly .600 does no good when Willy Taveras has the best OBP of the 1-2 combo at just .279 (that's worse than Q). The lineup has been weakened by losing Chris Dickerson and Jay Bruce to injury, and continuing to plug Edwin Encarnacion at third. Here's the lineup:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Willy Taveras - CF	.240	1	14	.279	.290	.262
Alex Gonzalez - SS	.203	2	20	.203	.250	.228
Joey Votto - 1B	.343	15	49	.418	.597	.432
Brandon Phillips - 2B	.262	15	48	.326	.452	.334
Edwin Encarnacion - 3B	.206	5	16	.329	.375	.316
Laynce Nix - LF	.241	8	24	.294	.458	.319
Jonny Gomes - RF	.288	10	24	.379	.584	.410
Ryan Hanigan - C	.323	1	8	.414	.384	.354

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features two hitters performing at super All-Star levels (Votto and Gomes) though neither have been starters all year, one above average hitter (Hanigan), one average hitter (Phillips), one atrociously bad hitter that should not be starting anywhere (Taveras) and one hitter that doesn't deserve to touch a bat every again (Gonzalez). The two leadoff hitters have a wOBA well below Ubaldo Jimenez...

Hanigan has been battling a stiff neck and hasn't played since July 24. He could be ready to go fr the series, but his quotes seem to suggest he's been a day away for five days now. Craig Tatum (1-for-19) is the rookie backup, while the newly acquired Wladimir Balentein (.213, 4, 13), formerly of Seattle, is the lone backup outfielder. He has yet to appear in a game since the acquisition, but he figures to probably get a look in the outfield this weekend. Jerry Hairston Jr (.252, 8, 27) is an infielder but starts in the OF sometimes, while Paul Janish (.232, 0, 3), Adam Rosales (.200, 2, 14) and Drew Sutton (1-for-9, 2B) fill out the cluttered infield.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: F

Via Fangraphs, only two pitching staffs have been worse than Cincinnati's, and they are still without Volquez for a couple weeks. Statcorner suggests the Reds starts have taken their team nickname too seriously. Reds starters have a 4.86 ERA, a 5.04 FIP and a 5.72 tRA. Gross. The bullpen has been much better at 3.59/4.15/4.41. Basically, we need to get to the starters.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Francisco Cordero	1-2	1.79	1.12	33	17

Dusty Baker's lefties are Daniel Ray Herrera and Arthur Rhodes, the main setup man. Joining closer Francisco Cordero are Carlos Fisher, Nick Masset, Dave Weathers and Josh Roenicke. Herrera is the only one below average by tRA.

The D: B

The Reds are ranked 8th in UZR/150 while also making the 9th-most errors. That's fairly in line with range, as they finish with the 8th best fielding value.

The Ballpark: Strong hitter's park

Great American Ballpark has a hitter/pitcher park factor of 104/105 on Baseball Reference, just a tick more neutral than Coors Field this year at 105/106. According to StatCorner, the greatest inflation comes from home runs, while all other hit types are actually smothered.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-3	3.87	1.41	69	39

*AAA Stats*	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Justin Lehr	8-1	2.57	0.89	20	16

Aaron Cook has won seven straight decisions, and the Rockies are 8-2 in his starts since The Streak started. His difficulty keeping the sinker down appears to have vanished after inducing 20 ground balls in his last start. Meanwhile, Justin Lehr will be making his first MLB start, though it's not what you think. The 31-year old made 66 relief appearance for Oakland and Milwaukee from 2004-06 and hasn't been back since. He faced the Rockies in 2005, allowing 1 run in 2 innings. Current Rockies were 2-for-4 off him, including a Garrett Atkins home run and fielder's choice, a Todd Helton flyout and Omar Quintanilla single. The last time he was in the majors, he threw a fastball, change, slider, curve and cutter, though the slider was the only above average pitch. I think I heard the Rockies were 11-0 vs. rookie pitchers this year, and though Lehr isn't a rookie, he's just as foreign. Plus that K/BB ratio suck. Favors: ROCKIES Very strongly

Saturday, August 1, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	7-9	3.85	1.29	120	54

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Homer Bailey	2-2	6.87	1.53	23	22

Ubaldo is a stud made up of pure awesomeness. He's only won one of his past seven starts, but that's more due to the offense averageing 3.0 runs in those games. Homer Bailey has been terrible in his seven starts this year. In fact, his whole MLB career has been ghastly. His tRA is 6.97, worst on the team, and even his 5.87 FIP isn't forgiving. His HR/9 is 7th worst in MLB and that K/BB ratio is just wrong. He does have a couple of decent starts and it's worth noting he's added nearly 3mph on his fastball from last year, but hopefully we can still tee off on him like last year. Favors: ROCKIES Very strongly

Sunday, August 2, 11:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	12-7	3.47	1.27	64	41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Bronson Arroyo	10-10	5.17	1.48	79	49

I heard a talk show host talk about how he was seeing signs Jason Marquis is coming back to earth. That's weird, because his ERA has been better each month of the season, and he's still tops in MLB in wins with five others. He failed to get 10 groundballs in his last start for just the fourth time this season, though it's likely not due to the blister, as he had 17 in the game prior. According to Statcorner, Arroyo has been Cincinnati's worst pitcher this year. His WHIP is 7th worst in the majors, so that's part of it - so is permitting the NL's 3rd most dingers. All this with just a .296 BABIP. According to Fangraphs, he has the NL's worst fastball also. He did, however pitch 17.0 consecutive scoreless innings this month - it was worth noting. Still... Favors: ROCKIES strongly

My take

Whereas the Mets series had Shea demons, there's nothing about the Reds series to scare me, other than the fact there's nothing about the Reds series to scare me. They are bad, they're cold, we have the obvious starting pitching advantage in each game, and our offense is a ton better. I probably will never predict a sweep on the road, but it is certainly within reach, and we should get off the Citi snide and get back to within a game of .500 on the road trip with a series win with relative ease.

Carlos Fisher, Francisco Cordero and Dave Weathers have each allowed just one run since the ASB. Joey Votto is hitting .300 with 4 HR since July 15, and Jonny Gomes has three home runs in the last week and five since the break.

Gomes also has just 3 singles in addition to his 5 HR, so he's hitting .211 since the break. Laynce Nix is 5 for his last 29, Craig Tatum is 3-of-20, Alex Gonzalez is 1-of-19, Willy Taveras is hitting just .218 since the break and Brandon Phillips has just two post-ASB XBH. The whole offense is struggling, hitting .214 with a .647 OPS since the ASB, which has equated to just 3.21 runs/game sine July 15.

Edinson Volquez has been effectively lost since May with an elbow injury. Also on the 15-day DL are C Ramon Hernandez (knee - 7/17), RHP Jared Burton (shoulder - 7/25), RHP/PH Micah Owings (shoulder - 7/27), 2B Danny Richar (shoulder - 7/3), OF Chris Dickerson (trapezius - 7/27), OF Jay Bruce (wrist - 7/13), and RHP Mike Lincoln (other - 6/13). 2B Wilkin Castillo was placed on the 60-day DL June 21 with a shoulder injury.

Poll

So did you learn from the Mets series not to be overly optimitic against struggling, injured teams?

Heck no. We are going to sweep!

58 votes

Well yes, but the Reds aren't the Mets, and there's no New York voodoo. We should have no problem winning the series.

53 votes

Yeah, wwe're going to lose another series on the road.

5 votes

OMG doom and gloom. We get swept and we don't post the WC standings in a story ever again this season out of embarrassment

4 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

Friday Links: Reyes, Volquez, Bonderman

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 18:54:11 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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Some links for Friday:

Mets shortstop Jose Reyes says he intends to play even if he is not 100% according to the New York Daily News. Reyes said, "If I feel like I'm 80% and able to go, I'm going to play because I don't know if 100% is going to be there this year. I might have to learn to play at 80%."
Edinson Volquez threw a 65 pitch bullpen session this morning in according to Andrew Simon of MLB.com. This is his third bullpen session, part or his rehab for an elbow injury that has kept him out of action since the beginning of June. Simon also notes that shortstop Alex Gonzalez was activated from the disabled list today.
The Detroit News reports that pitcher Jeremy Bonderman is nearly ready to return to the majors according to general manager Dave Dombrowski. At least initially he is likely to come out of the bullpen.
Reds second baseman Danny Richar will have shoulder surgery next Tuesday and is out for the season according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Tigers shortstop Carlos Guillen came off the disabled list Friday according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Outfielder Josh Anderson was designated for assignment to make room for Guillen.
According to the Delaware News Journal Phillies pitcher Pedro Martinez will make his first rehab start on Sunday for Single-A Clearwater.
The Chicago Tribune reports that pitcher Freddy Garcia will throw 2-3 innings Monday for either Triple-A Charlotte or Single-A Winston-Salem as he continues to try to return to the majors.