SB Nation - Joel Pineiro

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

Rox Girl — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:10:17 -0000

So let's take a look back at how the NL ended the 2009 season:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	95	67	.586	0	Lost 3
Colorado	92	70	.567	3	Lost 2
San Francisco	88	74	.543	7	Won 1
San Diego	75	87	.462	20	Lost 1
Arizona	70	92	.432	25	Won 1

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:02 AM EST)

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	93	69	.574	0	Lost 1
Florida	87	75	.537	6	Lost 1
Atlanta	86	76	.530	7	Lost 6
New York	70	92	.432	23	Won 3
Washington	59	103	.364	34	Won 7

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

So that's your basic straight up standings, if you want to go into more advanced detail (and you probably should) about how these teams stacked up on talent and skill without the luck you can look at Beyond the Boxscore or Baseball Prospectus or something, but straight W's and L's will serve as a solid start for where I'm going with this today.

So let's separate the teams into some talent groups, this time going by what we know of the teams' personnel at the end of last season rather than the standings:

Contender A Class (90+ wins)

Philadelphia
Los Angeles

Contender B Class (86-90 wins)

St. Louis
Colorado
Atlanta
Chicago

.500-ish teams (81-85 wins)

Arizona
San Francisco
Florida
Milwaukee
New York

I realize that the D-backs and Mets didn't finish anywhere close to .500 in 2009 and that the Giants and Marlins finished ahead of a couple of the teams in the group I have above them, but this is where taking out the luck, good or bad, comes in. In the cases of Florida and San Fran, they seemed to benefit from a large positive dose of divine favor in 2009 even as Arizona and New York were seemingly cursed from the get-go. Feel free to quibble with this placement in the comments, but the main point is that these are the 11 teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at making a playoff run in 2010.

So far in the off season, we've seen Los Angeles give up Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and drop into that second group with the Rockies and Cardinals, while the Phillies have grabbed a couple of minor upgrades with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz and given themselves a little separation from the rest of the league. Right now, it does not appear as if the Dodgers will be able to gain nearly enough of those cast-off wins back to get back to the Phillies level.

In the second group, the Cardinals and Rockies are both taking risks in replacing free agent starters leaving after career seasons, the Cards with Brad Penny in place of Joel Pineiro, the Rockies with the return of Jeff Francis in place of Jason Marquis. Insurance policies for both teams seem to be primarily a cache of young near-ready pitching talent. Both teams have similar bench depth issues to work out as well, the Cardinals need to replace Mark DeRosa and Rick Ankiel, the Rockies, Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

The good news for the Rockies in relation to the Cardinals (should they have to compete with each other for the wild card next season) is that 1) Dan O'Dowd got rid of this "Holliday distraction" the Cardinals are going through which is keeping them from making other moves a couple of years ago, and 2) while both teams can probably expect some regression in their starting rotation performance in 2010, it's usually a safe bet to expect a smaller step back from the team with the younger players, in this case, Colorado.

The Cubs are hoping that losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction, but the team's core seems to be declining as a group fairly rapidly, and actually looking at their ages, with their best hitting talent between the ages of 32-34 next season, I really suspect that they might be dropping into that .500 group without a major rebuild that doesn't involve Carlos Silva. The Braves, meanwhile, looked like they might have a decent team heading into 2010, but their replacement of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner is a downgrade for next year, as is yesterday's deal of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Signing Troy Glaus would be useful, but I still think the overall impact of Atlanta's moves is to add a lot more downside risk to the team in 2010 without a substantial upside improvement.

Of the .500-ish teams, so far, most haven't made any moves that really put them into the next category. The Mets appear to be likely adding Jason Bay, which would be a decent start at that. Arizona got a little better for next year or two in acquiring Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, but they still seem to be in a 82-85 win range which I think basically just catches them up to the Giants, who have as of yet done nothing. Florida gets a little better by aging a year, but not good enough, and their bullpen has been weakened. San Francisco is putting a lot of eggs into the Madison Bumgarner basket, either he or a second tier free agent like Jon Garland will have to replace the production that Randy Johnson and Brad Penny provided last season. That's a lot to ask given that the rest of their rotation, much like the Rockies, probably isn't going to be quite as good as it was in 2009.

Milwaukee's moves, such trading for Carlos Gomez and signing Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins have been mostly beneath the radar, but I really like what they've done so far. I still think they need more, but at least they're systematically going after the team's weaknesses on a budget without taking the kind of gambles that Atlanta is, or St. Louis did with the Penny acquisition.

So summarizing, the Rockies, who are gaining ground just by maturing into a peak phase, thus far have caught up with the Dodgers, and probably passed them talent-wise, just by sitting on their hands. Arizona's moved up a little and are within range of passing us if things fall their way in 2010, as are the Giants, but to put it in perspective, the gap between the Rockies and both those teams talent wise is probably still larger than it is between the Rockies and the Phillies the other direction.

As for the second playoff option, so far the news has been mostly positive as well, as none of the primary competitors outside the NL West with the possible exception of the Brewers have added enough talent to either make up for the players they've lost, or to otherwise catch up with Colorado. The last couple of seasons the Rockies have had similarly quiet winters, as Dan O'Dowd seems to prefer to wait until mid-season to add salary via trade if the team's in contention rather than going all in for the top free agents. Thus far this off season, I haven't seen any NL team besides the Phillies make moves that should push the Rockies to pursue a less budget conscious course.

The Real Problem With The Mets (and why Mark DeRosa may be part of the solution)

Sam Page — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 11:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The sassy attitude of a winner.

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These days, it seems fashionable to point out "the Mets only focus on last years problems!" and then turn around to talk about the need for a starting pitcher ceaselessly without the slightest hint of irony. Maybe I'm a contrarian, but the Mets have other, arguably bigger, problems than the rotation. The middle infield is being manned by two players with serious red flags on all four legs; one, while "healthy," was a -10 run defensive secondbaseman, the other hasn't ran full-speed in nearly 8 months. At two offense-premium positions are players with a recent track record of having their bats disappear for months at a time. And most, obviously, the Mets have no catcher or leftfielder. Ah, but that core. Here's my rough win projection for the incomplete squad:

So assuming better health, the Mets are 10 wins better, but certainly not contenders. Bengie Molina and Jason Bay add 4-6 wins, depending on how you project each player's controversial defense. That brings the Mets into the 85-range, a swing of good luck from the wild card, but not going to march over the NL East into the playoffs. So where is the room for improvement?

The rotation, certainly, but to what extent? Santana and Pelfrey occupy 2 of the 5 spots. Some assortment of Maine and Niese will be at the back end, with the potential of Niese being the second best-pitcher on the staff. So that leaves Perez's spot, and probably another. Call me crazy, but I'm not totally ruling Perez out, although a responsible team would. After he lost the life on his fastball, he's spent the offseason at the training facility famous for conditioning Huston Street's pitching arm.

Regardless, knowing the Mets, this team is one average (or worse) pitcher away from calling it a rotation. That, combined with a little blind faith they'll pull in Bay, makes the left side of the infield the most suspect part of the roster. Luis Castillo is a decent hitter, but a totally unacceptable fielder. Really, the difference between the Mets getting good or poor production from Pelfrey and some second-tier, contact-heavy free agent like Joel Pineiro is just accepting Luis Castillo is a bench player and signing a new secondbaseman. A glut of unwanted secondbaseman remains on the market, most of them pretty decent fielders. Orlando Hudson. Felipe Lopez. Miguel Tejada... Mark DeRosa?

For these reasons, though, I'm not totally opposed to signing Mark DeRosa. Yes, he is a glorified bench player looking for a multi-year contract with starter money. At this point, however, just resign yourself to the fact the team is taking the video game approach to the offseason. In their eyes, they've found the best utility-infielder, back-up catcher, leftfielder, and catcher, and offered them all the most money in hopes of improving the team by brute force. Value be damned, if Mark DeRosa is the best bench player out there, the Mets will pay.

In fact, the bench might be a good place to add some wins. Most projection systems are hammering DeRosa's offense, but he's a late bloomer, coming off a laundry list of nagging and more serious injuries. Interestingly, the fans at fangraphs have projected him well above the usually optimistic Bill James projections. It's especially surprising because he's a free agent who has played for several teams recently, making me wonder which fanbase so fervently supports Mark DeRosa. Still, I like ~.340 wOBA as an offensive projection for the healthy DeRosa. Defensively, he is about a -7 defender at second, not good, but passable and better than Luis Castillo. Remember, Joel Pineiro survived with a similar player in Skip Schumaker at second last year.

To make it really work, I'd pair DeRosa with his left-handed clone, Kelly Johnson. Each could be used as a plus-defense back-up outfielder with infield experience and the upside of a starter's bat. Writing Castillo out of the picture completely, I would arrange the lineups like so:

It's a 3-position, 3-person platoon that optimizes defensive specialties and platoon splits!

Now you think I'm playing fantasy baseball, but if the Mets sign DeRosa, I could see a very similar situation. It would be characteristic of management to use DeRosa versus lefties in the ever-baffling Murphy-platoon idea, and Jerry would be eager to rest Castillo for a better hitter (he even tried Tatis there last season). And I haven't yet mentioned his grit and playoff beard!

Which pitcher do you want?

Ed Valentine — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:08:25 -0000

Travis mentioned the probability the Yankees will be seeking another starting pitcher in this morning's notebook. So, which guy do you want?

I think everybody left on on the market comes with questions. It's just a matter of which guy is the best gamble. Let's look at the most often mentioned candidates.

Ben Sheets: Probably the biggest upside, but also a huge injury risk factor. He would likely also be the most expensive option. Missed all of last season with an arm injury, but he has won at least 11 games six times and has a career WHIP of 1.201. A big risk, but possibly the biggest reward.
Justin Duchscherer: Also missed all of last season with an arm injury. Has two All-Star appearances in his xis-year career, and probably a lower price tag than Sheets. Offers a few things Sheets doesn't. First, all of his experience is in the American League. Second, has proven that he can be effective as both a starter and a reliever so would offer Joe Girardi flexibility.
Erik Bedard: Talented and left-handed, which are two nice advantages in Yankee Stadium. But, also injury prone and has made only 15 starts in each of the past two seasons. Plus, his toughness has been questioned in both Baltimore and Seattle. That could be a problem in New York.
Jon Garland: I know 'jscape' loves this guy, but I don't. Sure, he is pretty much a lock for 200 innings, but he is also extremely hittable. With balls flying out of Yankee Stadium like they do, I just don't see him as an effective option.
Jason Marquis: A 10-year veteran coming off a solid 15-13, 4.04 season (1.38 WHIP). But, Marquis has never pitched in the American League and that is a huge red flag for me.
Joel Pineiro: Another 10-year veteran coming off a good season where he went 15-12, 3.49 for St. Louis. It was Pineiro's best season since 2003. He has lots of AL experience with Seattle and Boston. Personally, I'm not convinced he can come close to repeating his 2009 season.

I'm not including the young Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman. Even if the Yankees do land the 21-year-old lefty he is highly unlikely to be a major league option in 2010, so I'm keeping him out of the debate.

Poll

Which starting pitcher should the Yankees add?

Jon Garland

63 votes

Joel Pineiro

45 votes

Erik Bedard

191 votes

Ben Sheets

868 votes

Justin Duchscherer

311 votes

Jason Marquis

75 votes

1553 votes | Poll has closed

Some Let's-Take-A-Deep-Breath Analysis Of The Bradley-Silva Deal

Al — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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Now that you've all had a day to express disgust, outrage, "FIREHENDRYNOW", etc. over the trade of Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva, let's examine how this really will affect the 2010 Cubs on the field.

We don't have to rehash the reasons that Bradley had to be moved, but it was clear after he was sent home in September that he would be, no matter what. And when that happened, it was also clear that what the Cubs would get back wasn't going to be much -- likely someone else's bad contract. And that is precisely what we got.

All of you here know that I was against the signing from the beginning -- but I'm not going to say "told you so" here, because even I never imagined that Milton would melt down in the way he would. Let's just say he was never a good fit for the high-profile team that is the Chicago Cubs, and Jim Hendry should have known that. Hendry took responsibility for the entire debacle, and you can bet that Tom Ricketts will have him on a pretty short leash for the rest of this offseason and 2010. If the Cubs don't return to the playoffs in 2010, I'd expect Hendry to be fired, and that firing would be justified. Until then, I do think Hendry deserves a chance to clean up the mess that he made.

So what, really, do we now have here? There has been some dispute over exactly how much financial relief the Cubs got in this deal, but according to this cubs.com article, it's $6 million. This article has the same number. So until I hear different, that's the assumption I'm going on for this post.

Let's not pretend this deal is something it isn't. In December 2009, in a vacuum, there is no way any team deals for or signs Carlos Silva, based on his performance the last two years. He's been horrific. And that might be an insult to horrific players. I'll cut Silva some slack for 2009, as he was hurt most of the year. Could be, that contributed to his poor performance in 2008 also; maybe he was hurt then and didn't tell anyone.

Silva has had, since 2004 when he became a rotation starter for the Twins, at least three seasons where his performance would have made him a capable fifth starter for most teams. In 2005, in 27 starts, he put up an ERA+ of 126 and a 1.17 WHIP. In 2007, the year that got him the four-year deal from the Mariners in free agency, he had a 102 ERA+ and 1.31 WHIP; those numbers, along with a 4.19 ERA, aren't too different from what the Cubs got from Jason Marquis in 2007 and 2008.

Can Silva do this again? The answer is, we simply do not know until we see him pitch. The Cubs claim they have good reports on him from Venezuela:

The Cubs have had scouts watching Silva in Venezuela. He has appeared in four games, striking out two and walking three over nine innings. The club will send its strength and conditioning staff down there to get Silva on a program. The right-hander did report to camp this year 30 pounds lighter.

"We'll do everything we can to get him as close to back where he was a few years ago," Hendry said.

There's no doubt that he needs to lose weight -- just look at the photo at the top of this post, which was taken April 14, 2009. Get the guy in shape, bring him to camp, and see what he can do. There were some here who thought the Cubs should just release Milton Bradley and eat the $21 million on his deal. If Silva really can't pitch any more, he could be released -- but the Cubs would only eat $15 million. Even trading for Pat Burrell would have made the Cubs eat $13 million (because the Rays weren't likely going to take any of Bradley's 2011 salary), and Burrell would have been a very expensive pinch-hitter.

At his best, Silva was a decent ground-ball pitcher who didn't walk anyone. There have been pitchers like him who have come from the AL to the NL and had success -- Bronson Arroyo, for one, or even Glendon Rusch, who had one decent year for the Cubs (2004) as a long reliever/spot starter. There were some links passed around here yesterday -- helpfully combined by Harry Pavlidis -- that indicate that Silva is a very intense player who has on occasion called out his teammates in public for not performing. Clearly, this isn't a good thing, and the only thing I can hope for is that the Cubs clear the air on this right away.

Again, this is obviously not a player you would have chosen to add to your team in a perfect world. The Milton Bradley situation was about as far from "perfect world" as you could get. The $6 million in salary relief, we hope, will allow Jim Hendry to add some help in CF (hey, how about a Ryan Church/Reed Johnson platoon?), or another starting pitcher (paging Joel Pineiro!), or a reliever like Matt Capps.

About Bradley, this portion of Paul Sullivan's article sums him up:

Bradley referred to himself as a "quiet" guy, and said people who criticize him or athletes in general are trying to make names for themselves.

"Pretty much for me, anybody deep down on the inside, looking out or looking in, you understand how PR works and media works, and how people are promoted, and how you have a bad guy and you can have a good guy," he said. "And that's just the way it is. And so I'm portrayed as however I am. It just adds to the mystique, I guess."

Yep, Milton, sure. It's always everyone's fault but yours. Bruce Miles calls you "unrepentant" and I am 100% agreed. For me, this statement by Ryan Dempster sums up the Bradley "era" in Chicago:

"It's unfortunate," Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster said in September after Bradley was suspended. "At the end of the day, he was provided a great opportunity to come over here and be a part of a really great organization with a lot of really good guys, and it just didn't seem to make him happy, anything."

Somehow, I doubt he'll be happy in Seattle, either, but for now, I'm going to put the pitchforks down and reserve judgment till I see what else Hendry does this offseason. Let's the rest of us try to do that, too. Finally, don't forget to vote in the poll I posted on the right sidebar, if you haven't already, about this deal.

Washington Nationals: Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero and Jon Garland?

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:46:46 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

Free agent pitcher Jason Marquis is on the record saying he'd be interested in helping the Washington Nationals build toward respectability. (AP Photo/Paul Connors)

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To hear FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi tell it, the Washington Nationals, "...remain intent on adding two starting pitchers before Opening Day," and according to an unnamed "major league source", the Nationals, "...would prefer that at least one of them be a No. 2 starter or better." The names Mr.'s Rosenthal and Morosi mention in an update of, "Buzz: Latest from the MLB offseason", subtitled, "NL East rotation after Doc's arrival", will not surprise members of the DC Faithful who've been following new DC GM Mike Rizzo's attempts to add veteran depth to a young starting staff:

"Among the names presently on their list: Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland and Jason Marquis, in no particular order."

Newark Star-Ledger sports writer Brian Costa wrote about the state of the NY Mets' search for starting pitching today too, in an article (laboriously) entitled, "After losing season, NY Mets face bigger challenge in luring top free agents", which is all about the pall that a 72-90 '09 campaign has cast on the Mets' franchise when combined with a power-draining mistake of a new ballpark. (ed. note - "Is that too harsh? It is better than Shea? Whatever...") Mr. Costa notes that the Mets, having been snubbed by John Lackey, and are facing the realization that they are, "No longer...the prime destination for free agents," that they have been in previous seasons, which leaves them competing with the likes of the Nationals for available free agent talent. (ed. note - "I wrote that last part, not Mr. Costa.")

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi write that, "...the Mets still view Pineiro and Marquis as options to upgrade their rotation," but New York is negotiating with Jason Bay first, with the talks turning "serious" according to the latest reports. Piniero, a 31-year-old right-handed former Mariners, Red Sox (for a minute) and Cardinals' starter, is said to be seeking a four-year deal by a separate source of the FOXSports.com writers, who also report that Marquis is looking for a "two-or-three year deal."

The Nationals openly expressed interest in Jon Garland in the first week of December, with DC GM Mike Rizzo telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Garland, Willingham, Bruney, PTBNL, Flores", that Washington was intent on pursuing the 30-year-old righty, "'Yeah, we have interest in Jon Garland,' he said. 'We've had it the whole time. He's one of the 10 names we've been talking about throughout the whole winter.'" MLB.com's writer Bill Ladson talked to Jason Marquis recently, and he told Mr. Ladson in an article entitled, "Marquis interested in Nationals", that he'd be interested in signing with Washington, though he's also admitted an interest in pitching in New York...Piniero's intentions, in terms of a destination, are as yet unstated.

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

Brad Penny Gives Cardinals More Upside in Rotation

Satchel Price — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Cardinals and right-hander Brad Penny have come to an agreement on a one-year deal worth $7.5M with another $1.5M in incentives. The deal is pending a physical scheduled for Tuesday.

Much of the talk in St. Louis has been based around Matt Holliday and finding a replacement for him if he leaves, but quietly the Cardinals needed to fill another huge hole in the rotation with the departure of Joel Pineiro. Pineiro quietly made himself into a groundball machine last season, and his combination of pristine control and command made him one of the most effective starters in the National League. The big year priced Pineiro out of St. Louis' range, so it appears that they've turned to Penny to replace him in the rotation, to be joined with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and presumably either Mitchell Boggs or Blake Hawksworth.

Penny, 32 in May, managed to bounce back in 2009 with the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants after pitching just 94 (poor) innings the year before with the Los Angeles Dodgers. While his 4.88 ERA doesn't exactly impress, he did post solid 4.46 FIP and 4.56 xFIP marks, and his big-time mid-90's velocity returned as the season went on. Penny has some big upside, he has top of the rotation stuff and went five straight seasons with sub-4.00 FIPs from 2003 to 2007, and he's been worth more than 2.5 wins above replacement in six of the past seven seasons. Considering the big fastball, his apparent return to health, and a pretty solid track record outside of 2008, it seems that the Cardinals have added a pretty good arm to their rotation.

If Dave Duncan can help Penny in the same way that he helped the likes of Carpenter, Pineiro, Lohse, Matt Morris, Jeff Weaver, and Jeff Suppan, among others, then this could end up being a really great signing for the Cardinals. The guaranteed money is pretty significant at $7.5M, but it's only a one-year deal so a lot of the risk is mitigated, and there's reason to believe that Penny should be able to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher next season, making him well worth the investment.

The Cardinals definitely have some risk in their rotation with Carpenter and Penny, not to mention Lohse's inconsistency and forearm issues from last season, but they could very well have one of the best, if not the best, rotation in the National League next season if everyone is healthy. The Cardinals have some holes to fill still, especially in the lineup, but for $7.5M they did just land a potential #2 starter.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.